The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 15 | ARCHIVED on 14-Sep-2023 | ISR57710 | Implementing Agencies: Committee for Environmental Protection, Executive Committee for International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 03-Nov-2015 Effectiveness Date: 04-Aug-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 14-Jan-2019 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 01-Apr-2019 Original Closing Date: 30-Apr-2021 Revised Closing Date: 31-May-2024 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries, as well as to increased investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate challenges common to these countries. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Regional Climate Knowledge Services:(Cost $12.49 M) Regional Climate Investment Facility:(Cost $21.35 M) Regional and National Coordination:(Cost $3.86 M) Unallocated Amount:(Cost $0.30 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions This is an interim ISR of end-August 2023, following the February 2023 ISR. A full ISR will be processed after the upcoming Implementation Support Mission (ISM) scheduled for November 2023, during which time project implementation progress will be evaluated in each country, including actions needed for successful completion of all activities before the Closing Date in May 2024. 9/14/2023 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) As of end-August 2023, while progress towards achieving the Project Development Objective (PDO) is on track, the implementation progress remains Moderately Satisfactory and will be further reassessed in November 2023. Disbursements picked up and reached 52%, and all pending project activities are expected to be completed by the closing date. The Regional Coordination Unit (RCU) is also encouraged to further strengthen coordination and collaboration with the National Coordination Units (NCUs) during the next few months to ensure successful implementation of all remaining project activities as per the work plan, while considering project sustainability aspects. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance High Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and High Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary High Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders High Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall High Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stake IN01338074 ►Additional resources mobilized for knowledge, capacity, and investment for regional climate/green action through increased Program coordination among Central Asian countries and development community (Amount(USD), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 40,180,000.00 40,180,000.00 40,000,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 31-May-2024 Achieved as of July 2022. The amount reflected here includes following projects and sources: Funding Funding Comments: Project/ initiative Status ($ Main purpose source Million) 9/14/2023 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Project to support the World Bank's Green Investments in regional CAMP4ASB, in Tajikistan and Active 19 Climate cooperation on climate Uzbekistan Fund change Conduct regional research Smart Waters Completed 0.2 USAID competition (2019) US Hold Central Asian Women Central Asian Women in Tech and Completed 0.09 Embassy in in Tech and Science Week Science Week UZ in 2019 UNEP, EU, OSCE, WB, Central Asian Leadership Support to the 10th annual Completed 0.09 SIWI, Programme CALP in 2019 USAID, MFA FIN, Increase resilience to Developing a Disaster Risk disaster risks in the CA Transfer Facility in the CAREC Active 1.8 ADB region through improved Region collaboration in disaster risk financing. Strengthening the Strengthening the resilience of CA adaptation capacity of CA countries by enabling regional GEF - Active 19 countries to climate change cooperation to assess high altitude UNDP impacts on glacio-nival glacio-nival systems systems. Total 40.18 IN01338075 ►Cooperative action resulting in the financing of investments that require collaboration across countries (e.g., transboundary investment or multi-country coordination of national policies) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 31-May-2024 Comments: Achieved as of July 2022. Cooperative action resulting in the financing of investments that require collaboration across countries include the following: Brief description Investment Type of Cooperating of the joint volume Investor Activities Implementer investments Countries activities that led (USD) to investments Energy TBD TBD TKM and Conduct TBD The CAMP4ASB infrastructure UZ assessments project will on the support the Ruslovoe investment in its water reservoir preparatory state of the by conducting Tuyamuyun hydrological 9/14/2023 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) hydroelectric modelling of the complex in reservoir in order order to to aid decision- prepare an making to select investment viable technical proposal and solutions to go attract into the proposal investors. the investment project which takes into account the risks of sedimentation. The receiving UzHydromet has station of requested the MODIS data CAMP4ASB used by the project to allocate MODSNOW Phase 2 hard- software to component assess runoff support to the KG, KZ. TJ, of mountain Forecasting 18’000 upgrade, which CAMP4ASB TKM and rivers in the UzHydromet ICT expected has been UZ Aral Sea basin approved as it and improve constitutes an forecasting in investment in ICT the region has equipment which been installed will provide data in 2012 and is and benefit the in need of whole region. upgrade. Purchase of a An Agreement on supercomputer cooperation installed and between the put into NMHS of CA is operation in being worked out, Uzhydromet to World Bank which has already Forecasting 860’000 KG, KZ and use numerical Grand No. UzHydromet been signed by ICT secured UZ methods of Н677-7С the NMHSs of weather Kazakhstan and forecasts, Kyrgyzstan, including using including on the the predictive use of the model COSMO model. COSMO. IN01338096 ►Number of country-led plans and programs that draw on Program’s climate knowledge services, including lessons from climate investments (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 10-Jan-2023 31-Aug-2023 31-May-2024 Comments: Following two country-led plans and programs draw on Project's climate knowledge services: 9/14/2023 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) 1) Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated 11.29.2018. No. 970 “On measures to strengthen the material and technical base of the Center for Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan” for the period 2019-2022. The Project has contributed to UzHydromet to improve its services and automation of the observational meteorological network through timely warnings of disasters and hazardous weather events, predict reliably discharges for water resources management, provide support to other sectors and generally, and manage the weather, water and climate related risk effectively. 2) In Tajikistan, National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change and a National Adaptation Strategy 2012-2030. Tajik Hydromet, as a National Focal Point for the UNFCCC, contributes to addressing climate change issues and coordinates climate change activities in the country. The Agency operates the Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer. The Center processes information and reports on all aspects related to climate research, mitigation of its changes and adaptation to them, which led to the development of a National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change and a National Adaptation Strategy 2012-2030. The Agency has benefited from the project with better data, information and equipment. IN01338097 ►Proportion of users reporting satisfaction with Climate Knowledge Services provided by Program (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 94.00 94.00 60.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 31-May-2024 Achieved as of July 2022. The number is derived from the assessment/ feedback collected from Comments: participants of various events/trainings, provided through the Progress Reports. Overall Comments PDO This is an interim ISR. The PDO and IRIs will be updated, where applicable, after the Implementation Support Mission in November 2023. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Regional Climate Knowledge Services IN01338098 ►Number of multi-country climate coordination networks supported under Program, enabling intra-governmental, sectoral, NGO, etc. cooperation (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 31-May-2024 Achieved as of July 2022. The third Central Asia Regional Climate Change Conference scheduled for June 2020 in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, was organized virtually, due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, on Comments: October 19 - 23, 2020. The next Regional Conference is tentatively planned for spring or summer 2021. IN01338101 ►Number of users of public climate data and analytical services provided by the platform (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 9/14/2023 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Value 0.00 2,008.00 2,008.00 9,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 10-Jan-2023 31-Aug-2023 31-May-2024 The Central Asian Climate Information Platform (CACIP) was just launched in May 2021; therefore, new Comments: users are expected to rise. To be updated in Summer 2023. IN01338104 ►Improved understanding of gender-specific implications of climate change among key stakeholders and implementation of key activities (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 31-May-2024 Achieved as of July 2022. Comments: Regional Climate Investment Facility IN01338099 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 80,839.00 80,839.00 50,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 29-Apr-2022 The direct beneficiaries for this project would be considered: 1. people receiving regional and nation training; 2. beneficiaries of credit lines (and their families); 3. People benefitting from jobs created by the project. Based on this definition, actual and planned beneficiaries of training and subprojects (assuming Comments: that each subproject benefits a family of 10 people and people employed by the subproject). This indicator includes: IN01338102 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 55.00 55.00 35.00 IN01338103 ►Number of hectares in project area covered by effective agricultural, land, and water management practices suited to local agro-ecological conditions, which can address climate change (Hectare(Ha), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 18,450.00 18,450.00 10,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 29-Apr-2022 While this indicator is still relevant, it is clear that the nature of the sub-projects financed by the project has changed from what was foreseen during preparation. The project has financed a lot of subprojects that resulted in adoption of new technologies for climate smart agriculture and not in number of ha covered by Comments: sustainable land and water management technologies. Thus, the target of number of hectares will be adjusted to 10,000 ha and a new intermediate results indicator related to climate smart technology adoption will be added. 9/14/2023 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) IN01338105 ►Farmers adopting climate-smart agricultural technologies (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 5,946.00 5,946.00 3,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 29-Apr-2022 IN01338106 ►Beneficiaries reached with financial services. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 39,011.00 39,011.00 3,000.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 29-Apr-2022 IN01338107 Female beneficiaries reached with financial services (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 50.00 35.00 IN01338108 ►Beneficiaries that feel project investments reflected their needs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 80.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 29-Apr-2022 Now that the investments are close to completion, beneficiary surveys will be conducted for the project by the Tajik and Uzbek NCUs, where the climate investments have been carried out. The surveys are Comments: currently being designed and potential adaptations of the survey method due to COVID-19 are being considered. Regional and National Coordination IN01338100 ►Feedback/Grievances responded and/or resolved within the stipulated service standards for response times (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Date 28-Apr-2016 15-Jul-2022 15-Jul-2022 31-May-2024 Although no complaints have been received during FY20, the NCUs in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and the RCU have fully functioning GRM systems (staff are in place, procedures well developed and advertised, awareness building has been carried out). The NCUs and RCU have received and responded to Comments: questions and comments from the community through these and other systems which are reported on in annual reports and checked during supervision missions. Under the AF, the project will study the zero complaints results and establish a more robust mechanism for feedback. 9/14/2023 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P151363 IDA-57410 Closed USD 14.00 13.47 0.53 13.46 0.00 100% P151363 IDA-57420 Closed USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 8.95 0.00 100% P151363 IDA-D0940 Effective USD 15.00 15.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 100% P151363 TF-B5997 Effective USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 2.60 6.40 29% P151363 TF-B5998 Effective USD 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.43 0.57 43% P151363 TF-B5999 Effective USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 6.92 2.08 77% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P151363 IDA-57410 Closed 03-Nov-2015 13-Mar-2017 28-Apr-2017 30-Apr-2021 30-Apr-2022 P151363 IDA-57420 Closed 03-Nov-2015 22-Jan-2016 04-Aug-2016 30-Apr-2021 30-Apr-2022 P151363 IDA-D0940 Effective 03-Nov-2015 01-Jul-2016 04-Aug-2016 30-Apr-2021 31-May-2024 P151363 TF-B5997 Effective 22-Jun-2021 24-Sep-2021 14-Jan-2022 31-May-2024 31-May-2024 P151363 TF-B5998 Effective 22-Jun-2021 18-Aug-2021 23-Oct-2021 31-May-2024 31-May-2024 P151363 TF-B5999 Effective 22-Jun-2021 25-Jun-2021 23-Oct-2021 31-May-2024 31-May-2024 Cumulative Disbursements 9/14/2023 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2017 ,Level 2 Approved on 06-Aug-2017 ,Level 2 Approved on 12-Feb-2019 ,Level 2 Approved on 21-Aug-2019 ,Level 2 Approved on 12-Oct-2020 ,Level 2 Approved on 18-Mar-2021 ,Level 2 Approved on 30-Apr-2021 Related Project(s) P163542-Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin CAMP4ASB Additional Financing 9/14/2023 Page 9 of 9