The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing (IPF) | FY 2023 | Seq No: 3 | Archived on 03-Sep-2024 | ISR01502 Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment 1. OBJECTIVE 1.1 Development Objective Original Development Objective (Approved as part of Decision package on 23-Mar-2023) The objective of the project is to support the Government of Tajikistan in protecting poor and vulnerable households from shocks, promoting economic inclusion, and improving social protection systems. Has the Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No 2. COMPONENTS Name Component 1: Emergency Assistance to Low-Income Families:(Cost 6,830,000.00) Component 2: Support to Unemployed Including Labor Migrants:(Cost 19,960,000.00) Component 3: Strengthening Social Protection Delivery Systems:(Cost 6,650,000.00) Component 4: Project Management and Monitoring:(Cost 2,160,000.00) Component 5: Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC):(Cost 0.00) Unallocated:(Cost 1,900,000.00) 3. OVERALL RATINGS Name Previous Current Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Sep 03, 2024 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) 4. KEY ISSUES & STATUS 4.1 Implementation Status and Key Decisions Overall, from February to August 2024 both implementing agencies have made progress on complying with the disbursement conditions, implementing the project activities, and disbursing the grant proceeds. Thus, with some delays in fulfilling the legal covenants, the implementation progress is rated as Moderately Satisfactory, while the progress towards achievement of the PDO is rated as Satisfactory. Disbursements reached US$ 9.38 million in August 2024 (including US$9.18 IDA and US$0.2 TF funds). It is expected that by the end of September 2024, the project would complete the disbursement of emergency cash transfers. Other key activities underway include the functional review of public employment services, the development of the Economic Inclusion Program (EIP) design, the development of the Labor Market Information System (LMIS) , the launch of the fully functioning Information and Analytical Center of the MHSP, the groundwork for the digitalization of the social insurance and pension system, and the design of the case management system. 5. SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL Rating at Approval Last Approved Rating Risk Category Approval Package - ISR Seq. 02 - 23 Feb Proposed Rating 24 Mar 2023 2024 Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Substantial Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Moderate Moderate Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Sep 03, 2024 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) 6. RESULTS 6.1 PDO Indicators by PDO Outcomes Protect poor and vulnerable households from shocks Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year 0.00 Jul/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 100,000.00 Jun/2025 Comments on The indicator will measure the additional support provided to most vulnerable extremely Number of families in the achieving targets poor households already supported by the TSA program, and who did not receive ADB's cash TSA supported by temporary top-ups in 2022 compensation (Number) By end of August 2024, 95,749 families received payments and remaining eligible families will be covered by cash transfers in Sept 2024. Promote economic inclusion and enhance support to the unemployed Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Share of beneficiaries of the 0.00 Oct/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 50.00 Jun/2027 EIP engaged in income Comments on The indicator will track the number of start-ups which are operational 6 months after grants generating activities (after 6 achieving targets were awarded. months) (Percentage) The EIP has not been launched Number of district level 0.00 Jul/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 35.00 Jun/2027 employment centers with Comments on The indicator is intended to measure the capacity of employment agencies at district level to integrated registration and achieving targets provide tailored support to unemployed and labor migrants referral system (Number) Improve social protection delivery systems Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Sep 03, 2024 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) Social Protection Analytical No Jul/2022 No 09-Feb-2024 Yes Jun/2027 and Informational Center is Comments on The indicator will track the establishing and functioning of the Social Protection Analytical established and functioning achieving targets and Informational Center under the MHSP. (Yes/No) The Center is established, but not yet fully functioning. 6.2 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Emergency Assistance to Low-Income Families Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Share of female-headed TSA 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 50.00 Dec/2024 supported families who Comments on The indicator will measure the additional support provided to extremely poor women- received cash transfers achieving targets headed households covered by the TSA program. financed by the Project 51,710 families covered by cash transfers are women headed. (Percentage) Number of districts covered 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 50.00 Dec/2024 by communication and Comments on Number of districts where the communication and dissemination activities about the cash dissemination activities achieving targets transfers are conducted. about the cash transfers to Communication campaign is in process. TSA beneficiaries (Number) Component 2: Support to Unemployed Including Labor Migrants Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year No Dec/2022 No 26-Aug-2024 No 26-Aug-2024 Yes Dec/2024 Identification of the skills Comments on This indicator tracks the preparation and carrying out of a survey to identify the skills demand in the labor market achieving targets demand of the labor market (Yes/No) The survey on skills demand is to be launched in Sept 2024 Sep 03, 2024 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) A registry of unemployed has No Dec/2022 No 09-Feb-2024 Yes Jun/2027 been developed and is Comments on The indicator will track the development of the registry of unemployed, which is an essential operational (Yes/No) achieving targets tool to provide adequate and timely support to jobseekers A registry of labor migrants No Dec/2022 No 09-Feb-2024 Yes Dec/2026 has been developed and is Comments on The indicator will track the development of the registry of migrants, which is an essential operational (Yes/No) achieving targets tool to provide adequate support to incoming unemployed labor migrants Number of labor migrants 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 200,000.00 Jun/2027 registered in the registry of Comments on This indicator will track the progress made by the MLME in registering labor migrants labor migrants (Number) achieving targets Number of beneficiaries of 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 15,000.00 Jun/2027 the EIP selected and enrolled Comments on This indicator will track the initial step to the economic inclusion program. in training (Number) achieving targets The EIP has not been launched Number of female 0.00 Jan/2023 0.00 26-Aug-2024 0.00 26-Aug-2024 7,500.00 Jun/2027 beneficiaries of the EIP Comments on This indicator will track the initial number of female beneficiaries enrolled to the economic selected and enrolled in achieving targets inclusion program. training (Number) The EIP has not been launched 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 26-Aug-2024 0.00 26-Aug-2024 13,000.00 Feb/2027 Number of unemployed Comments on The indicator will measure the impact of skills development and training activities designed supported by training and achieving targets to support unemployed, including incoming labor migrants. The indicator will measure only skills development those individuals who successfully completed the training and skills development as a proxy (Number) to measure enhanced employability. The EIP has not been lauchned. 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 26-Aug-2024 0.00 26-Aug-2024 6,500.00 Jun/2027 Number of unemployed Comments on This indicator will measure the impact of the combined skills development intervention, supported by income achieving targets financial support, and tailored technical assistance to unemployed individuals, including generating activities incoming labor migrants. (Number) The EIP has not been launched. Sep 03, 2024 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) Number of female 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 26-Aug-2024 0.00 26-Aug-2024 2,500.00 Jun/2027 unemployed supported by Comments on This indicator tracks the transition from the successful completion of training to the income generating activities achieving targets implementation of startups by women. (Number) The EIP has not been launched Number of district level 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 26-Aug-2024 0.00 26-Aug-2024 60.00 Dec/2026 employment centers Comments on This indicator will track the progress made by the MLME in equipping its district level equipped with computers achieving targets employment offices with computers and connections to the Internet and connected to the Internet (Number) Component 3: Strengthening Social Protection Delivery Systems Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year New module of the NRSP on No Feb/2023 No 09-Feb-2024 Yes Jun/2025 social services is developed Comments on The indicator will track the development and functioning of the new module on social and functioning (Yes/No) achieving targets services to be a part of the NRSP under the MHSP Number of institutions 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 100.00 Dec/2025 providing social assistance Comments on The indicator will track the equipping of institutions under the MHSP providing social equipped with computers achieving targets assistance to population with computers and connected to the Internet and connected to the Internet (Number) Percentage of poor pregnant 0.00 Dec/2022 0.00 09-Feb-2024 80.00 Jun/2027 women (TSA recipients) Comments on The indicator will track the share of successful referrals of poor pregnant women to health referred to health facilities achieving targets facilities through the case management program through the case management program (Percentage) Percentage of poor pregnant 42.00 Dec/2022 42.00 26-Aug-2024 42.00 26-Aug-2024 60.00 Jun/2027 women (TSA recipients) Comments on The indicator will measure the efficiency of case management system in taking antenatal reported having at least 4 achieving targets care (4 visits during pregnancy) by poor pregnant women from TSA recipient families in pilot Sep 03, 2024 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) ANC visits during pregnancy districts. The baseline is set based on the utilization of 4 ANC in the lowest income quintile (Percentage) from DHS 2017 Component 4: Project Management and Monitoring Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) Closing Period Indicator Name Value Month/Year Value Date Value Date Value Month/Year Share of TSA beneficiaries 0.00 Jan/2023 0.00 09-Feb-2024 75.00 Jun/2027 satisfied with procedures of Comments on The indicator will measure the extent to which the various project interventions met the emergency cash transfers achieving targets needs of the beneficiaries. This indicator will track satisfaction of TSA beneficiaries (enrolled delivery (Percentage) to the program in 2023) with delivery process of the emergency cash transfer Share of EIP beneficiaries 0.00 Jan/2023 0.00 09-Feb-2024 75.00 Jun/2027 satisfied with procedures of Comments on The indicator will measure the extent to which the process of investment grants distribution receiving investment grants achieving targets satisfied beneficiaries of the Economic Inclusion Program (Percentage) Sep 03, 2024 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) 7. DATA ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 7.1 Cumulative Disbursements 7.2 Disbursements (by loan) Loan/Credit/TF Status Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed TF-C0791 Effective 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.20 2.30 8.00% IDA-E1600 Effective 35.00 35.00 0.00 9.18 25.29 26.21% 7.3 Key Dates (by loan) Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Signing Effectiveness Orig. Closing Rev. Closing IDA-E1600 Effective 24-Mar-2023 30-Jun-2023 25-Jul-2023 30-Jun-2027 30-Jun-2027 Sep 03, 2024 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Social Protection Modernization and Economic Inclusion Project (P178878) TF-C0791 Effective 30-Jun-2023 30-Jun-2023 25-Jul-2023 30-Jun-2027 30-Jun-2027 8. KEY DATES Key Events Planned Actual Approval 24-Mar-2023 24-Mar-2023 Effectiveness 25-Jul-2023 25-Jul-2023 Mid-Term Review No. 01 31-Jul-2025 Operation Closing/Cancellation 30-Jun-2027 9. RESTRUCTURING HISTORY 10. ASSOCIATED OPERATION(S) There are no associated operations Sep 03, 2024 Page 9 of 9