T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 1 2 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 3 ANNUAL REPORT Tanzania Urban Resilience Program Tanzania Urban Resilience Program (TURP) was established in 2016 from a partnership between the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the World Bank to support the Government of Tanzania in its endeavor to increase resilience to climate and disaster risk. TA N Z A N I A URBAN RE SILIENCE PROGR AMME 4 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 5 “We now have the opportunity to mitigate the chronic issue of flooding in Dar es Salaam. At the same time, we can breathe new life into the city by restoring the ecological functions of the river basin and unlock development potential by transforming currently hazardous lowlands into safe, buildable space within the core of Dar es Salaam. The government of Tanzania is ready to implement this plan, hand-in-hand with the community and development partners. Tuanze kazi!” Hon. Minister Selemani Jafo, Minister of State, President’s Office — Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG) 6 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 This publication is available at: worldbank.org/en/programs/tanzania-urban-resilience-program Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum Printed in Tanzania by DTP Printing T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 7 Table of Contents 0 1 Executive Summary 3 02 By the Numbers 7 03 About TURP 11 04 Activity Summary 17 05 Results Overview 83 06 Risks Overview 85 07 Looking Ahead 91 08 Financials 95 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Acronyms AA Administration Agreement IPF Investment Project Financing AAL Average Annual Loss KPI Key Performance Indicator ACCA Awareness, Comprehension, LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging Commitment, Action M&E Monitoring and Evaluation ASA Advisory Services and Analytics MEO Mtaa Executive Officer BETF Bank-Executed Trust Fund MKUKUTA-II N a t i o n a l S t r a t e g y f o r G r o w t h a n d BRT Bus Rapid Transit Poverty Reduction CDPRP Community Disaster Preparedness MoU Memorandum of Understanding and Response Plan MoWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation CDRT Community Disaster Response Teams MSMF Msimbazi Strategic Management Framework CERC Contingency Emergency NEMC National Environmental Management Component Management Council COP Community of Practice OPM Oxford Policy Management COSTECH Tanzania Commission for Science PA Programmatic Approach and Technology PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment CRRP Community Risk Reduction Plan PO-RALG President’s Office – Regional CSO Civil Society Organization Administration and Local Government CTTL Child Activity Task Team Leader RAS Regional Administrative Secretary DarMAERT Dar es Salaam Multi-Agency RETF Recipient-Executed Trust Fund Emergency Response Team RMI Risk Management Index DART Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit Agency SC Steering Committee DEMs Digital Elevation Models SOGDAT Support to Open Data and Accountability DfID United Kingdom’s Department for in Tanzania International Development SUZA State University of Zanzibar DMD Disaster Management Department SWIFT Survey of Well-being via Instant DRF Disaster Risk Framework and Frequent Tracking DRM Disaster Risk Management TAHMO Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological EMI Earthquake Megacities Initiative Observatory EMIS Emergency Management TANROADS Tanzania National Roads Agency Information System TED Training, Exercises, and Drills Program ESA European Space Agency TF Trust Fund EWS Early Warning System TMA Tanzanian Meteorological Agency FY Fiscal Year TOR Terms of Reference GA Grant Agreements TRC Tanzania Red Cross GEO-ICT Geographic Information and TTL Task Team Leader Communication Technologies TURP Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and Recovery UDSM University of Dar es Salaam GFR Grant Financing Request ULGA Urban Local Government Authority GIS Geographic Information System UNA Urban Natural Assets GoT The Government of Tanzania USSD Unstructured Supplementary GPSURR Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Service Data Global Practice UTEP Urban Thematic Exploration Platform ICLEI Local Governments VICOBA Village Community Banks for Sustainability WBG Word Bank Group IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority WRBWB WamiRuvu River Basin Water Board on Development T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 2 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 Exective Summary 01 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 4 Extreme weather events are becoming a global norm, with record heat, wildfires, and rainfall being reported on a regular basis. In Tanzania, this translates into severe flooding, exacerbated by climate change and environmental degradation. Rainfall in April and May of 2018 had an enormous impact the country’s growing urban population, with the destruction of critical infrastructure, the displacement of thousands, and several fatalities reported. Research conducted by the Tanzania Urban flood-prone area that is home to over 25% of the Resilience Program (TURP) on this period finds that city’s population. These assessments were made the economic toll in Dar es Salaam alone reached possible with support from Ramani Huria, Swahili upwards of USD $100 million, close to 2% of the for “Open Map,” an initiative that has now equipped city’s gross domestic product (GDP). According over 1,000 Tanzanian students and community to trends, the frequency of these events will only members with critical skills in participatory mapping increase with time if coordinated measures are methods. During FY19, Ramani Huria collected a not taken. This underscores the urgent need to new and critical dataset used to identify and analyze build resilience and mitigate risk moving forward, risk — from drainage points, to soil samples, to solid and further emphasizes the importance of TURP waste hotspots — and, during times of emergency, in responding to the expectations of citizens and the initiative once again responded with a rapid Government stakeholders alike. assessment of its own, mapping the impact of severe flooding across Dar es Salaam. Projects remained consistently active over the 2019 Fiscal Year (FY). Between July 2018 and June 2019, USD $3,822,000 of program funding, provided by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DfID), was disbursed or committed across the 18 contracts under TURP’s four pillars of implementation: Pillar 1 – Risk Identification, Pillar 2 – Risk Reduction, Pillar 3 – Emergency Preparedness, and Pillar 4 – Resilience Academy. Pillar 1, which focuses on innovative methods for the collection and dissemination of actionable climate risk data, continued to inform risk reduction and response measures this FY. A priority was put on informative assessments guiding redevelopment of the Msimbazi River Basin, Dar es Salaam’s most 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 The 3 Pillars + Resilience Academy PILLAR 1 PILLAR 3 Data Collection for Risk Identification Emergency Management and Preparedness PILLAR 2 RESILIENCE ACADEMY Planning for Risk Reduction Scientific Tools and Models for Risk Management Pillar 2, designed to fill gaps in the planning Another major highlight from Pillar 2 was the and coordination of risk-reduction activities in release of the Msimbazi Opportunity Plan, Tanzania, delivered new insights and community which aims to guide national intervention for engagements in FY19. Two socioeconomic studies risk reduction with a comprehensive strategy were concluded, shedding light on the tolls of for addressing Dar es Salaam’s most flood- flooding on impoverished communities as well prone area, the Msimbazi River Basin. The plan, as the community-level coping mechanisms in conceptualized through a participatory process, place. These community-driven research pieces attained the support of several government were complemented by support for ward- ministries in FY19, which are now actively rallying level government disaster committees through to secure funding for implementation. development of Community Risk Reduction Plans (CRRPs). These plans serve to standardize community action for improved flood mitigation, and the engagement and planning process also serves to convene and activate disaster management committees for the first time. Such action was also enabled by TURP through the Let’s Do It World Cleanup Day — an awareness-raising campaign that put solid waste management at the forefront of the dialogue on resilient urban development and engaged over 26,000 community members in a country-wide clean-up. As TURP passes its mid-point, much of the program attention has been put on sustainability of knowledge and systems and hence, on Pillar 4, the Resilience Academy. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 6 Activities under Pillar 3, which is dedicated to were quick to set the goals of the Resilience improving emergency management across the Academy and mobilize from planning into action. country, built response capacity and installed Early outputs from their collaborative efforts standardized systems in FY19. Several trainings have included the development of a Climate Risk were delivered to better prepare the Dar es Database for risk information, the structuring Salaam Multi-Agency Emergency Response Team of eight academic modules for risk education (DarMAERT) for the event of disaster, and an in planning, and the institutionalization of an Emergency Management Information System industrial training program. These outputs now (EMIS) was prototyped and tested to digitally serve as the foundation for a digital hub of streamline the organization’s operations. At a educational resources, training, and exchange community level, TURP also provided support to related to urban resilience — soon to become ward-level government under this Pillar in the co- available at resilienceacademy.ac.tz. creation of Community Disaster Response Plans (CRDPs), piloted in three wards, which are intended Looking ahead, the program anticipates the to support effective local response to emergency. potential for another devastating rainy season and is striving to operationalize the new plans As TURP passes its mid-point, much of the at local level, as well as build awareness of the program attention has been put on sustainability benefits and flood protection impact of the of knowledge and systems and hence, on Pillar Msimbazi Opportunity Plan. Activities in Dar 4, the Resilience Academy. This Pillar aims to es Salaam are expected to focus on supporting curate and transfer data, tools, and models of operational needs and taking onboard long-term the program into a local academic and technical sustainability considerations. In addition, work on platform. Leaders representing four Tanzanian urban resilience is expected to scale up in select universities and one international institution secondary cities and Zanzibar. 7 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 By the Numbers 02 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 8 Highlights Pillar 1 Risk Identification 700+ 8,000 KILOMETERS OF DRAINAGE SEGMENTS AND DATA POINTS POINTS MAPPED COLLECTED FOR WASTE COLLECTION  5,705 AMENITIES MAPPED   675,000+ BUILDING FOOTPRINTS DIGITIZED 02 FLOOD EVENTS MAPPED FOR IMPACT AND RESPONSE 01 GEOMORPHOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED 20,000+ 643 TRASH HOTSPOTS IDENTIFIED SOIL SAMPLES COLLECTED FOR CLEAN-UP   AND ANALYZED 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction 39% OF THE POPULATION   (2 MILLION PEOPLE) IDENTIFIED AS IMPACTED BY FLOODING USD $100m 500,000+ LOSSES RECORDED FROM KILOGRAMS OF 1 MAJOR FLOOD EVENT WASTE REMOVED 02 SOCIOECONOMIC STUDIES CONDUCTED 26,000+ 01 STRATEGIC PLAN FOR THE MSIMBAZI PARTICIPANTS IN 102 SOLID SUPPORTED BY MINISTRY LEADERS WASTE CLEAN-UPS USD $114m ESTIMATED FOR MSIMBAZI UPGRADING Pillar 3 Emergency Management 50 01 DIGITIZED ONTO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION EMERGENCY SHELTERS AND SYSTEM (EMIS) 2 WAREHOUSES IDENTIFIED 04 TECHNICAL TRAININGS DELIVERED ON 04 EMIS EMERGENCY RESPONSE TRAINING MODULES DEVELOPED – 1 DELIVERED T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 10 Pillar 4 Resilience Academy 500+ 05 STUDENTS TRAINED ON UNIVERSITIES ENGAGED PARTICIPATORY MAPPING IN PARTNERSHIP METHODS 08 ACADEMIC MODULES IN CO-DEVELOPMENT 45 50 UNIVERSITY COURSES TARGETED FOR RESILIENCE DATASETS UPLOADED LEARNING MATERIAL TO THE CLIMATE RISK DATABASE (CRD) 150 STUDENTS FROM 3 UNIVERSITIES SELECTED FOR 2 INTERNSHIP/ INDUSTRIAL TRAINING PROGRAMS 1 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 About TURP 03 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 12 Tanzania is the most flood-affected country in East Africa, and also home to some of the fastest-growing cities on the continent. Currently in its third year of implementation, TURP’s overall objective is to support national and local governments of Tanzania in strengthening management of climate risk in these cities and enabling climate-resilient urbanization across the country. The program, a partnership between the World Increasing Resilience to Climate Bank Group (WBG), the Government of Tanzania and Disaster Risk (GoT), and DfID, is structured to improve risk identification, systems planning for risk reduction, TURP supports the Government of Tanzania and coordination and emergency management (GoT) in implementing a program that promotes activities, positioning TURP in close alignment with climate and disaster risk management in the Sustainable Development Goal 11 to “make cities wider context of sustainable development. The and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, proposed engagement is aligned with and directly and sustainable.”1 addresses the government’s priorities on growth, the environment, and climate adaptation outlined Higher-level objectives to which the program in the second National Strategy for Growth contributes include: and Poverty Reduction (known as MKUKUTA- II, Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza 1 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/cities/ 13 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Umaskini Tanzania). Similarly, the activities In the initial years, TURP worked through a directly support the strategic objectives and structure of three Pillars to effectively foster interventions in the National Climate Change engagement and dialogue surrounding urban Strategy, Zanzibar Climate Change Strategy, and resilience. These Pillars were: (1) Risk Identification, Disaster Management Act 2015. (2) Risk Reduction, and (3) Emergency Preparedness. Last year, following stakeholder Promoting Shared Prosperity feedback and consultation, activities dedicated to and Ending Extreme Poverty skills transfer, research, and capacity building grew into a stand-alone fourth Pillar: (4) the Resilience Climate change and adverse natural events have Academy. A steering committee, composed of key the greatest impact on the poorest populations stakeholders from the Prime Minister’s Office — who generally live in higher-risk areas and have a i.e., Disaster Management Department (DMD), diminished capacity to recover from disaster. In the President’s Office — Regional Administration the case of Tanzania, even frequent, low-intensity and Local Government (PO-RALG), DfID, WBG events such as a heavy rainfall can have crippling have overseen the implementation projects and cumulative effects on livelihoods and that fall under these Pillars, with advice from communities of the bottom 40%. Impediments to the Technical Advisory Committee, composed development gains as a result of climate hazards of a broader set of program stakeholders and that particularly impact the poorest communities government agencies. can be minimized by reducing the exposure to hazardous events and decreasing the vulnerability of the poor to climate disturbances. These are the core challenges being addressed by TURP through a systematic mainstreaming of risk management principles across government and civil society. TURP Challenges LACK OF DATA AND INFORMATION INADEQUACY OF URBAN AND LAND USE PLANING SYSTEMS SIGNIFICANT AND GROWING, INFRASTRUCTURE GAP T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 14 Distribution of TURP Project Pillar Funds in Fiscal Year 2019 35% PILLAR 1 31% PILLAR 2 19% PILLAR 3 15% RESILIENCE ACADEMY Description of Program Activities implementation of structural and non-structural mitigation measures. The following is an overview of activities supported by WBG through the TURP Trust Key activities in this Pillar are the collection Fund (TF): and organization of climate risk data as well as the development of visualization tools and (A) PILLAR 1 – RISK IDENTIFICATION risk models. Socioeconomic data include the mapping of people, assets such as houses This Pillar strengthens the identification and or critical infrastructure, and urban services understanding of climate risk and uncertainty and livelihoods. Environmental data and in the local context and enhances the linkages models include the historical data and current and coordination between risk-management monitoring of hydro-meteorological phenomena, stakeholders. To make decisions that ultimately the geophysical characteristics of the urban strengthen physical, social, and financial environment such as soil types, land use, and resilience, a thorough understanding of disaster river basin profiles, and application of the best and climate risks in the local context and their climate models to identify future impacts of implications is vital. This informs decision makers climate change. about the risks they face and the drivers of those risks. As such, Pillar 1 increases access to (B) PILLAR 2 – RISK REDUCTION comprehensive information about physical and societal exposure to climate risks, which inform Guided by the data and management tools 15 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 of Pillar 1, Pillar 2 functions to strengthen These investments support the resilience of cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce climate critical infrastructure, and specifically target risk through the use of both structural and measures aimed at protecting priority river basins non-structural measures addressing long- and improving flood management infrastructure. term systemic risk. In partnership with government entities, civil society, and the (C) PILLAR 3 – DISASTER PREPAREDNESS private sector, activities that Pillar 2 support AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT focus on the reduction of the vulnerability of people, households, and communities. Pillar 3 supports all stakeholders involved with This is accomplished by providing analysis of short-term disaster events and preparedness for non-structural measures, such as creating or specific emergency scenarios. Also guided by improving policies and legislation, better land Pillar 1 data, Pillar 3-collected scenarios of city use planning, environmental protection and risk will be used to establish best practices around basin plans, hazard zoning and building codes, identifying and preparing vulnerable groups, and the design of risk-reduction works, such emergency response plans, and an operations as drainage upgrades, ponding schemes, slope center; design of Early Warning Systems stabilization, and retrofitting or reinforcement (EWSs); requirements for equipment, tools, and programs. infrastructure; and simulations, drills, and damage assessment capacities. Stakeholders in this work- The activities support communities, planning, stream are concerned with civil protection, and works authorities with the development of disaster management, community volunteers, a pipeline of investments reducing urban risk. coordination for response, and recovery actions. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 16 (D) PILLAR 4 – RESILIENCE ACADEMY The goals are to enable a legacy for skills and tools Thematic content of the Resilience Academy developed through TURP and build partnerships is embedded as a knowledge-transfer function between academia and practitioners that within the activities of Pillars 1 through 3. enhance the sustainability of risk-management practices and datasets in Tanzania. The concept of the Resilience Academy is as an evolving virtual program anchored in Tanzanian In addition to World Bank-executed activities, universities and training institutes that delivers TURP anticipates that it will provide financial digital curricula, practical experience, training support for government implementation of placements and courses, and equipment to activities designed to (i) mainstream and scale support surveying, maintenance, risk monitoring, up climate risk management practices, including and analysis activities. community-driven works, projects, and small grants; and (ii) introduce green urban investments for flood risk reduction, basin management, The goals are to enable a legacy for skills drainage enhancements, and EWSs. A key focus and tools developed through TURP and has been to support the GoT’s Flood Management build partnerships between academia and Task Force’s call to address flooding in the Dar es practitioners that enhance the sustainability Salaam City Center through a Msimbazi River of risk-management practices and datasets Flood Risk Reduction project and development of in Tanzania. a Msimbazi Basin Flood Management Framework. Implementation of these GoT-executed activities Key activities are the transfer of datasets and is subject to grant agreements being signed with risk analysis tools to university programs, as well the Ministry of Finance, and reporting will be as leveraging the yearly placement in industry done separately from this Annual Report. program to provide university students with real-world experience in collecting, analyzing, and applying risk data. 17 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 Activity Summary 04 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 18 Pillar 1 Risk Identification OBJECTIVE collection activities have been ongoing and critical assessments have been conducted to To strengthen the identification and produce a more comprehensive image of risk in understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in Tanzania. the local context. Many of the outputs from these activities are OVERVIEW OF PROGRESS now informing implementation of risk-reduction and emergency preparedness measures, and the Activities under Pillar 1 continued to play an innovative techniques and methods used are important role over the course of FY19. Data being adopted into an educational platform under development in the Resilience Academy. 19 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Elevation Model COMPLETED Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) acquisition of terrain elevation and Exposure Mapping was conducted to produce Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) for the Msimbazi River Basin, – informing the Detailed Area Plan Mapping surveys of high-risk rivers were conducted in April 2019 and are expected to continue with a focus on sediment volumes – datasets available on government GoT and university map portals with appropriate licensing Erosion and COMPLETED Study completed and data analyzed – outputs suggest that there Sedimentation Study will be a continued increase in the rates of erosion, soil loss, and sedimentation with time and urban development – advising quick preventative action to be taken in the Msimbazi Community Mapping FINALIZING An unprecedented amount of data has been collected, including – Ramani Huria information on: soil sediment sampling data, city drainage data, hyper-local boundaries data, assets and threats data for flood risk identification, city trash hotspots data for waste management, flood response data for damage assessment, and building footprint digitization Now curating, organizing, documenting, and publishing the data, tools, and knowledge created through project implementation for handover to the Resilience Academy Historical Events Inventory INITIAL This activity is foreseen for FY20 - discussion on scope and methodology STAGES to be determined Dar es Salaam Probabilistic INITIAL Over 50 firms applied to Expression of Interest and short list of 6 has Flood Risk Evaluation STAGES been sent a Request for Proposals, – with tender expected to be given in FY20 Risk Management Index ONGOING Two field investigations have been conducted by the Earthquakes & Updates and Megacities Initiative (EMI) and a draft Disaster Risk Management Index (DRMI) toolkit with indicators has been delivered Hydrological Study ONGOING Data collection for Msimbazi model calibration is complete. Work is and Monitoring now focused on two goals: ongoing river monitoring for model fine- tuning; and testing and validation of the TAHMO network in support of operational river flow forecasts Spatial Data Management ONGOING Transition and documentation of core data layers on risk information and Hosting from Ramani Huria and Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH) Geonodes into a Climate Risk Database hosted by Tanzania Urban Resilience Academy; creation of a Data Flow Map underway HISTORICAL EVENTS INVENTORY RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX & UPDATES In order to accurately identify risks that have A gap in risk information inhibiting Tanzania’s been posed in the past, the GoT has initiated a ability to reduce vulnerability, as well as to preliminary analysis of historical disaster events prepare for and recover from disaster, has using the DesInventar methodology2 . TURP is been the absence of a national Disaster currently reviewing how to support this effort Risk Management Index (DRMI), which is a while maintaining the focus on urban events. tool that outlines indicators related to the risk management performance of a country. 2 https://www.desinventar.net/ T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 20 These indicators are established to reflect the delivered to key government institutions on the organizational, development, capacity, and implementation and customization of the toolkit institutional action that guide a country’s for further applications. emergency management systems. Beyond the baseline assessment of a toolkit, this In response to this, TURP engaged the services project aims to ensure that progress is tracked of the EMI in FY19 to develop and apply a along indicators, a roadmap is set in place to DRMI in the Dar es Salaam Region. Over the help stakeholders understand their status course of two field investigations, EMI took of implementation, and a training program is stock of the existing situation, evaluated and delivered to key government institutions on the validated the draft DRMI indicators and toolkit, implementation and customization of the toolkit and collected inputs for adjustments to project for further applications. implementation. Beyond the baseline assessment of a toolkit, this “This project is a big opportunity to us project aims to ensure that progress is tracked because of the open forum and experience along indicators, a roadmap is set in place to sharing amongst municipalities and with help stakeholders understand their status different organizations” of implementation, and a training program is - Sweetbertha Paschal, Municipal Disaster Coordinator, Temeke Municipal Council | TURP is dedicated to transferring knowledge of Disaster Risk and Emergency Management to Tanzanian agencies 2 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 | LiDAR surveys have overcome obstacles preventing the production of accurate DTMs for the challenging terrain of the Msimbazi. Photo credit: Chris Morgan ELEVATION MODEL AND EXPOSURE MAPPING DTMs are critical tools for effective mapping of flood hazards, providing detailed terrain typology, identifying flood plains, and indicating which infrastructure is most at risk. Developing DTMs from Digital Surface Models (DSMs) created by photogrammetry is possible, but very challenging for areas with dense vegetation cover or that are not easily accessible for establishing Ground Control Points (GCPs). Comprised of low-lying flood plains covered by tall grasses and dense mangrove vegetation, the Lower Msimbazi Basin is one such area. Traditionally, aerial LiDAR systems of acquisition have been proven as the best method for capturing terrain elevation and deriving high- quality DTMs in challenging areas, but manned aerial flights are expensive, complex, and time- consuming. Therefore, in FY19, in line with the innovative methods of data collection conducted by the TURP, a drone equipped with a LiDAR T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 22 system connected to ground-independent intended to support a geomorphological positioning systems (RTK-GNSS and INS) was assessment, taking into account soil sediment used to capture terrain elevation of the Msimbazi’s characteristics for erosion and flood risk studies. Detailed Area Plan, an area identified for initial Although a national-level soil profile had existed intervention by the Msimbazi Charrette Process. for Tanzania prior to this effort, it contained only a single sample from Dar es Salaam — insufficient The results from this survey secured accuracy not for analyzing the true potential of erosion across achievable using past surveys, with a substantial the city. A team of 10 field mappers and 4 office impact being noted in the difference. TURP’s technicians — all Tanzanian youth participants initiative has thus enabled a rigorous comparison of the Ramani Huria project — were trained in of DTM generation through different unmanned sample collection and analysis for this initiative, aerial vehicle (UAV) methods of acquisition, as and a total of 643 points were ultimately well as a generation of reliable, accurate, fit- sampled and analyzed for density. The resulting for-purpose data critical for the next phases of dataset, a geo-referenced set of soil sediment spatial development in the Msimbazi. profiles (a soil map), has now been published and is available as open data. It is expected that this COMMUNITY MAPPING map will inform intervention for risk reduction in the Msimbazi River Basin. The Ramani Huria project, a community mapping initiative led by the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap “Our work in community mapping has Team and adopted into the TURP portfolio, has showed the relationship between urban been collecting localized data to improve urban flooding and unregulated waste disposal. resilience since its inception in 2015. Solid waste often blocks the city’s already poorly maintained drainage systems, which Over this time, thousands of students and leads to the regular flooding during rainy community members have been equipped with season. We are happy to now be working knowledge and skills critical for conducting with organizations who want to address this accurate risk mapping, and a substantial collection of datasets have been acquired through correlation in their work.” their involvement through community mapping – Emanuel Kombe, Mapping Supervisor, Ramani Huria activities. During the past fiscal year, continued engagement in drainage mapping resulted in Ramani Huria also partnered this fiscal year with total coverage of over 700,000 km (or 40 wards two trash collection companies: Green WastePro of Dar es Salaam) of drain points and segments. Ltd, operating in formal settlements in the city Ramani Huria-led building footprint digitization center, and Joshemi Company Ltd, operating additionally captured a total of over 670,000 in informal settlements in Tabata Ward. By buildings within 28 of these wards, and asset and providing these companies with digital datasets, threat mapping enabled over 5,000 critical service they are now able to track their clients, improve amenities to be identified across the city. Project the sanitary conditions of neighborhoods, and activities introduced in 2019 aimed further, to help to reduce the risk of flooding across the city. extend project impact and develop use cases for the data collected by the Ramani Huria team. Further addressing the issue of solid waste in Dar es Salaam, Ramani Huria joined forces with Nipe Over the months of October and November 2018, Fagio in 2018 to map trash sites in Dar es Salaam. Ramani Huria and JBA Consulting partnered In just four days of mapping, 540 students to develop a surface soil sediment dataset for collected and uploaded a total of 20,392 trash the greater Dar es Salaam region of Tanzania, points. The mapped data helped to identify the 2 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 location of the areas with poorly managed waste materials, as well as the type and size of waste, and guided clean-up methods for a major clean- up of the city on September 15, 2018. The trash hotspots were reduced to 9,452 after clean-up activities. In response to heavy rainfall in March and May of 2019, which resulted in heavy flooding across Dar es Salaam, the Ramani Huria team additionally conducted rapid assessments and produced impact maps for high-risk sub-wards. These maps have provided community leaders with up-to-date information on risk for improved flood mitigation and response. As the project nears its end, the Ramani Huria team has been working to curate, organize, document, and publish project data, tools, and knowledge in order to ensure sustainability of impacts through a handover to the Resilience Academy. | Thousands of students have now been trained on participatory mapping methods by Ramani Huria. Photo credit: Chris Morgan T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 24 Ramani Huria LINK www.hramanihuria.org 18,350 643 DRAIN SEGMENTED AND FIELD POINTS VISITED WITHIN 13,385 DRAIN POINTS MAPPED MUNICIPALITIES, RESULTING IN IN 40 WARDS, COVERING OVER 1,286 TOP AND BOTTOM SOIL 700,000KM2 SAMPLES COLLECTED 49 WARDS (AND 256 SUB-WARDS) COVERED IN ASSET AND THREAT MAPPING 675,000 BUILDINGS REDIGITIZED IN 28 WARDS 5705 AMENITIES MAPPED 8,000+ 3,225 DATA POINTS COLLECTED FOR HYPERLOCALBOUNDARIES  TRASH COLLECTION IN MAPPED IN 42 WARDS FORMAL AND INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS 25 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 26 Spotlight Story Citizen Scientists Reduce Flood Risk with Soil Sampling LINK https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/05/15/in-tanzania-citizen-scientists-help-reduce-flood-risk-with-soil-sampling 2 7 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 | 16 members of the Ramani Huria team were involved in soil sampling. Photo credit: Chris Morgan. During the first few months of each year in Tanzania, the mood around urban centers like Dar es Salaam is one of dread due to the impending arrival of the rainy season. Around this time, headlines report a toll of losses related to flooding — of assets, of critical infrastructure, and of life. Recent World Bank studies have identified many “Flood modelling has not often shown the whole contributing factors to the increasing impact of story for Dar es Salaam, as the soil map does not flooding in Dar es Salaam. Soil erosion, historically reflect the impact of urbanization,” said Mussa under-addressed, plays a major role. Plaguing the Natty, an engineer and former municipal director Msimbazi River Basin that snakes through the supporting program activities. “Only one general city’s center, soil erosion enables water to escape soil type has been considered by decision makers the confines of the river’s natural borders. It also in the past, and this severely limits accuracy produces sediment, which obstructs river flow and of analysis as it doesn’t account for how soil in increases flooding over time. This has disastrous different areas reacts differently to water.” effects on settlements along the riverbanks — many of which are informal and low-income. Traditional programs would have employed Community-led efforts to reinforce the collapsing costly international expertise to fill this data gap. riverbanks have involved the intentional dumping Advocating instead for the adoption of affordable of solid waste, a makeshift solution that has and local solutions to flooding in Dar es Salaam, further exacerbated the issue. the World Bank’s Urban Resilience team is using citizen science for the task. A team of 16 young To analyze the extent of erosion along the river professionals and students leads the initiative, and better visualize the impact of potential adopting open web applications and simple interventions, TURP is conducting flood modelling measurement tools for the physical collection of for the city. With accurate flood models, decision samples. These samples have been gathered from makers will be better able to design sustainable 643 strategic points across the city, covering an solutions for the basin. However, experts have area of over 2,752km². noted that modelling accuracy has been hindered by an outdated soil map. “The process demands that we test soils from T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 28 different areas around Dar es Salaam in order to Dar es Salaam, and the actions that need to be determine the different soil profiles, which will taken regarding  urban development around the ultimately help us understand how water will Msimbazi River. affect each soil type,” said Sia Salonga, one of the young samplers engaged in the project. “These “We can see where some tree planting will profiles show us which areas are most susceptible be needed. Maybe we need to add in some to erosion, which are experiencing the most grassy areas, or stop some urban development erosion, and how this influences flooding and because certain areas are really susceptible river dynamics,” added Natty. to high erosion rates. These are some of the things we can consider with this data,” said “Flooding is a reality for us all in Tanzania,” Natty. As use cases emerge, this project aims to said Salonga. “I’m very grateful for the prove that critical disaster risk data collection does not have to be outsourced, that local opportunity to participate in an initiative knowledge and tools can support successful that will help leaders make informed and sustainable solutions, and the capacities of decisions for our communities.” young, aspiring practitioners can be nurtured in the process. After just two months of sampling, the team has recorded over 600 different soil types across the “Flooding is a reality for us all in Tanzania,” said city, providing data that has been made open and Salonga. “I’m very grateful for the opportunity to free for public use. The resulting soil map will participate in an initiative that will help leaders inform a comprehensive sedimentation study of make informed decisions for our communities.” | Ramani Huria team taking soil samples. Photo credit: Chris Morgan. 2 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 EROSION AND SEDIMENTATION STUDY In recognition of the impact of erosion and Erosion and sedimentation on flood dynamics in Dar es Salaam, TURP conducted a comprehensive Sedmintation study geomorphological assessment during FY19, building upon data collected by the soil sampling initiative of Ramani Huria. This assessment provides a geomorphological perspective on the hydrological and hydraulic processes within the river basins of the city and sets out a plan to assess, manage, monitor, reduce, and control sediment flows in the short and long term. The study has identified that the river basins 43 SOIL SAMPLES TAKEN BY 16 STUDENT MAPPERS COVERING AN AREA OF 2,700KM2 within Dar es Salaam currently suffer from an imbalance of sediment — a state in which more sediment enters than leaves each system, predominantly a result of vegetation clearance All 7 basins COVERING CITY OF DAR ES SALAAM over many years and rapid urbanization. Analysis has also indicated that during peak flood BROKEN DOWN TO SUB-BASIN LEVELS conditions within the Lower Msimbazi, sediment transport rates could exceed 100 kg per EROSION SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RATE second. The results from the outline assessment OF SOIL LOSS MAPS CREATED FOR match the observed effects and the problems EACH BASIN SUB-DIVIDED encountered with siltation of channels and flood plains in the lower reaches of the catchment. The outputs of this study emphasize that if no action is taken, this will result in a continued increase in the rates of erosion and soil loss upstream and sedimentation in lower basins with future urban development, which will altogether increase the frequency and severity of flood events and overall flood risk. The existing erosion and sedimentation problems will continue until long-term solutions are implemented and established to reduce sediment entering the river. Therefore, the study has directly identified the sub-basins at risk of erosion and enabled development of a strategic plan to reduce erosion in the long term. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 30 | DMDP Weather station installation under TURP. Photo credit: Chris Morgan. HYDROLOGICAL STUDY shell set-up for the operational data feeds of AND MONITORING the TAHMO station network and satellites • Creating a preliminary hydrological rainfall To increase the monitoring capacity of the run-off model that simulates rainfall run-off DMD (under the Prime Minister’s Office) and response of the Mzimbazi catchment done the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MoWI) of in collaboration with the Community Water the GoT, TURP contracted Delft University of Watch project Technology to demonstrate and deploy TAHMO • Automating forecast workflows to update instruments. The direct goal of these stations is the system and run forecasts using the to accurately monitor the weather and its spatial aforementioned data feeds variability, while the ultimate goals are to i) use • Using a geographic information system these observations for set-up and fine-tuning of (GIS)-based portal to inspect ingested data hydrological models of the basin, and ii) use the and results of forecasts (flows, water levels) stations to operationally forecast river flows and spatially as well as at specific forecast downstream impacts within the city of Dar es locations done in collaboration with the Salaam through a forecasting system. Activities Community Water Watch Project carried out within the project for this FY include • Training local and international MSc students the following: on flood modelling and EWS set-up • Setting-up a use case for flood EWS for bus • Training of staff of Wami-Ruvu River Basin rapid transit (BRT) in Dar es Salaam. office and teachers in Dar es Salaam on station • Maintaining the hydro-meteorological installation, operation, and maintenance equipment installed under TURP. • Building a preliminary hydrological forecast 3 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 | Data Flow Map of Resilience Academy A flood EWS portal or dashboard was successfully populating of the Climate Risk Database (CRD) developed to support this work in collaboration during FY19 and developed it into a geonode with the Community Water Watch project. The format. Assets incorporated into the geonode portal is intended as a demonstration site; it is, include existing and planned exposure, hazard, however, functional and accessible on https:// risk, and socioeconomic data, useful for any dashboard-dar.floodtags.com/. A use case for the researchers or practitioners working in the field BRT has already been set up, and others are soon of urban resilience. The CRD is now discoverable to arise (e.g., for the Tanzania Red Cross Society at: https://geonode.resilienceacademy.ac.tz, but [TRCS]). The dashboard’s public launch is planned will soon be added to the RA website as a more for October 2019. centralized digital platform for all RA resources. Official validation process is expected to take This database has informed the first version of the form of a co-location of TAHMO station the Resilience Academy data flow map, which with the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) aims to identify data collectors and end-users. “standard” station. The co-location should be completed by December 2019. FLOOD RISK EVALUATION SPATIAL DATA MANAGEMENT After some delays in establishing underlying input AND HOSTING datasets, the Terms of Reference (ToR) for a flood risk evaluation of Dar es Salaam was developed, Risk data assets that have been collected through circulated for comment, and revised, and a call TURP thus far have undergone a cataloging for Expressions of Interest was conducted. More exercise conducted by members of the Resilience than 50 firms responded, and the procurement Academy team. This process preceded the process is expected to be completed by mid-2019. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 32 | Flooding on Morogoro Road. Photo credit: Chris Morgan. CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED The project will include a full hydrological analysis and flood hazard and risk modelling exercise of FY19 has seen a shift in focus from rapid data the cities of Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar, with acquisition to support planning and modelling an additional, more sophisticated probabilistic activities at the start of TURP towards activities analysis carried out for Dar es Salaam. A key involving dataset updates, quality review and part of the project will be the development and sustainability, and management. Consequently, implementation of a comprehensive flood risk some critical datasets have been revisited and data and information dashboard system that will resurveyed and much time has been invested in ensure the study outcomes are used and provide working with universities to transfer skills and actionable and relevant data and information for know-how for conducting updates. A significant flood risk specialists, management, and decision emphasis has been placed in 2019 on working makers at all levels. with local teams — either GoT teams, universities, or local firms —to establish local capacity and sustainability of updates and digital services. A few notable challenges were: “Adopting a probabilistic approach to flood risk management is not new, but it is a rapidly • Data accreditation and licensing – 2018 evolving technique, driven largely by the saw several amendments to the National view of an accurate understanding of risk, in Statistics Act, which placed some uncertainty terms of economic and financial exposure and on the formality of citizen-sourced datasets, contingent liability, as essential.” such as Ramani Huria, and university-created – Scott Ferguson, Technical Director – Flood Risk datasets. Several workshops were added to Management, Ambiental engage with National Bureau of Statistics and PO-RALG data teams to socialize concept 3 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 of data licensing and discuss a hierarchy of official and unofficial datasets. This “spectrum” of data sources is still an ongoing Pillar 1 Challenges review and each dataset makes a case-by- case decision on the authoritative source. DATA ACCREDITATION However, adjustments to the Statistics Act in AND LICENSING late 2019 provide for greater confidence that both official and unofficial sources can be HYDROMET VALIDATION used when technically appropriate. • Hydromet validation – Delays were experienced in 2019 in implementing a AERIAL SURVEYS OF RIVERS practical meteorological data validation protocol for the TAHMO stations. This process has not been undertaken before in Tanzania and has been subject to changes UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE in location for station co-location as well as GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES availability of TMA staff. • Aerial surveys of rivers – UAV mappers SECONDARY CITIES DEMAND continued to encounter delays and uncertainty in processing flight permits, making it difficult to time flight for peak flood occurrence or peak dry season survey. • Uncertainty of future government activities FINANCIALS – several of Pillar 1 data acquisition and basin monitoring activities were designed Pillar 1 projects have disbursed USD $1,148,000 around the expectation of Recipient- in FY19, with a total of USD $3,384,000 since (Government) Executed Grant to mitigate the program started. Financial summaries are flood risk in Dar es Salaam. Currently, no detailed in Section 8 such agreement has been signed, and hence the operational requirements and resources for a basin monitoring network remain at a conceptual level. Some instruments, such as TAHMO, were intended as demonstration networks, with decisions on how and when to operationalize, dependent on the kick-off of a government program. • Secondary cities demand – there remains significant demand from secondary cities for risk-assessment activities and data surveys. Sequencing and coordination of engagement has been challenging, given multiple objectives and shifting priorities. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 34 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction OBJECTIVE the World Cleanup Day campaign in a move to highlight the issue of solid waste. To strengthen the identification and understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in the local context. Msimbazi River Revitalization was another priority as steps were taken to release the OVERVIEW OF PROGRESS Msimbazi Opportunity Plan early in the year. This strategic guide for intervention in Dar es Pillar 2 remained quite active in FY19 with several Salaam’s most flood-prone zone was shared with ongoing, scaled-up, and new commitments. decision makers, and it is hoped that in 2020, Community Risk Mitigation activities received consensus will be achieved for implementation. the majority of grant funds, including support to 3 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Socioeconomic Studies COMPLETED Studies concluded with background papers and policy recommendations Msimbazi Flood COMPLETED Monthly workshops conducted, engaging critical stakeholders, Infrastructure Diagnostic conceptualizing 10 strategies conceptualized, and finding consensus found for a design vision Msimbazi Design Charrette COMPLETED Finalized and included in the Msimbazi Opportunity Plan and Special Planning Area Msimbazi River Basin COMPLETED This task evolved into a solid waste research and analytics Management Framework tool, working with local government and Nipe Fagio to quantify waste mapped by Ramani Huria Msimbazi Displacement COMPLETED Successfully delivered, – including community awareness and Resettlement Strategy activities, training of trainers, solid waste mapping, a large- scale clean-up, and a brand audit Community Level ONGOING Formative studies finalized, community risk maps developed, Risk Reduction and contract signed SOCIOECONOMIC STUDIES In FY19, two socioeconomic studies were conducted to explore and quantify the relationship between poverty and flood risk in Dar es Salaam and better understand specific village community resilience actions and networks. POVERTY AND DISASTER RESEARCH The first of these focused on the role of poverty in exposure (those affected by floods), vulnerability (what is lost in floods), and socioeconomic resilience (how do the affected cope and recover). The goals were to understand how policy can strengthen resilience and to capture synergies between risk management and poverty-reduction actions. | The April 2018 flooding in Dar es Salaam had a devastating impact on lives, assets, and infrastructure T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 36 Researchers used household surveys and over USD $100 million, representing close to 2% combined information on how households of the GDP of Dar es Salaam. experience flooding in the city with socioeconomic Furthermore, poorer households were less characteristics and information on levels of annual likely to recover from flood exposure. expenditures obtained using the Survey of Well- being via Instant and Frequent Tracking (SWIFT) Through this research, it was clear that access methodology. Additional data was collected to finance plays an important role in recovery through focus group discussions with community for households. members and through a follow-up interview over the phone six months after the April 2018 flood. “Losses experienced by households due to Results show that vulnerability to flooding is a the April 2018 flood reached over USD $100 widespread problem throughout Dar es Salaam. million, representing close to 2% of Dar es Overall, 39% of the population (equating 2 million Salaam’s GDP” people) was reported as having been impacted – Socioeconomic Study on Poverty and Disaster either directly or indirectly. Poorer households are more likely to be affected by floods directly and even more so indirectly. Directly affected households are more likely female-headed and have more insecure tenure arrangements. Indirectly affected households, in turn, tend to Impact on Households have access to poorer quality infrastructure. While rent values seem unaffected by flood risk, household estimates of dwelling values were found to be consistently lower among affected households. It was also found that affected households suffered significant losses of about 23% of annual income on average, but these losses were unequally distributed. Focusing particularly on the floods of April 2018, few households suffered very large losses, and 23% OF ANNUAL INCOME LOSS ON AVERAGEEXPERIENCED BY HOUSEHOLDS the large majority lost up to 10% of annual income. Surprisingly, poorer households are not over-represented among the households that lost the most — even in relation to their income. This could be because 77% of total losses were due to asset losses, with richer households Over USD $100m having more valuable assets. While indirect losses due to health and missed days ESTIMATED LOSSES EXPERIENCED BY of work are relatively small, they have significant HOUSEHOLDS IN THE APRIL 2018 FLOOD well-being effects for affected households. In total, it is estimated that losses experienced by households due to the April 2018 flood reached 37 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 38 Spotlight Story Draining Dar’s Economy – The Impact of Floods on Tanzania’s Commercial Capital 3 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Dar es Salaam’s economy and infrastructure suffers from frequent and severe flooding, and the situation will get worse in the absence of major interventions. In May of 2019, uninterrupted rainfall caused serious flooding in Dar es Salaam; 1,215 households were displaced, roads and bridges destroyed, and 1,560 dwellings were swept away. This disaster extends the growing list of flood events having struck the city in recent years. Dar es Salaam was affected by similar incidents in people, having been impacted either directly or 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, and seven floods indirectly by floods. The April 2018 flood alone alone impacted the city between 2017 and 2018. affected between 900,000 and 1.7 million people. These events are a constant reminder of the urgency to address urban flood risk which causes Beyond these stark numbers, this research also major disruption to mobility, basic daily routines shines a light on the role of poverty in terms such as getting to work or school, and worse the of exposure, vulnerability, and socioeconomic diseases that dirty flood waters bring to affected resilience. We are now able to begin understanding communities. The health impacts can reverberate who is affected by floods, how much people lose for months after flood waters subside, and without in floods, and to what extent those affected can taking action now, flood risk and health hazards will cope with and recover from floods. further increase in the coming decades because of urban intensification. A closer look at income distribution reveals that the poor and vulnerable are over-represented among But the impact of floods in Dar es Salaam should those affected by floods in Dar es Salaam; people also be understood as a barrier to poverty experiencing direct flood damages have per capita reduction and a constraint on national economic expenditures that are 14 percent lower than non- growth. Recently published World Bank research affected people and are also significantly more food provides insights to the scale of the problem in insecure than the average. Another concerning the city; exposure to floods is wide-spread with insight is that female headed households, which at least 39 percent of the population, or 2 million are less equipped with the tools to cope with T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 40 APRIL 2018 FLOOD LOSSES Direct losses (house repair and asset loss) USD $101,480,000* - USD $215,860,000 Indirect losses (health & labor) USD $5,547,0–0 - USD $11,825,000 Total losses USD $107,027,0–0 - USD $227,685,000 % of city GDP 1 – 4 percent disasters, are more likely to be affected. people in a constant state of recovery, with By extrapolating the results to a city level, a cumulative negative effect on poverty and the April 2018 flood cost the population an prospects for the future. The data confirms equivalent of 2 and 4 percent of the city’s GDP, that poverty is associated with lower capacity or between US$107-227 million in losses. On to recover. Understandably access to finance average, affected households lost 23 percent can help people to recover from such shocks, of their annual expenditure. This equates to but formal finance is seldom available. This 84 days of a typical household’s expenditure. is particularly the case for female headed However, results of the vulnerability assessment households who are 11.5 percent less likely are somewhat surprising. Poorer people were to practice saving, and 9 percent less likely to not the ones who lost the most in relation to have a bank account when compared with male their income. One explanation is that poor headed households. households have fewer assets to lose and are less likely to undertake housing repairs, resulting Investments for urban flood control in Dar es in a lower monetary value of losses. Salaam can help reduce poverty if targeted and designed thoughtfully. A balanced integration This does not mean that the poor are less of traditional infrastructure focused measures, vulnerable to floods. When asked about their such as dredging and channeling works, drainage experience of the floods, affected households systems, combined with innovative nature- consistently responded that their biggest concern based solutions can be accompanied by non- was their health and that of their children. Having structural measures such as risk-informed land water in the house increases the risk of cholera use planning, building guidelines, forecasting and and skin infection. When the flooding gets out of early warning systems. But to also strengthen control, parents struggle to keep their children vulnerable populations, investments need to out of the water. Therefore, in addition to the be integrated with considerations of financial healthcare costs, flood exposure is associated inclusion and social protection. Boosting Dar es with enormous stress and discomfort, impacts Salaam’s resilience to floods will not only help which are challenging to capture in impact affected households escape poverty, it will also assessments of disasters. boost the city’s important economic contribution to a more prosperous Tanzania. Moreover, disasters are not isolated events. Recurring floods in Dar es Salaam place some 41 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 COMMUNITY RESILIENCE STUDY With this knowledge, the study highlights five – MUTUAL AID/SAVINGS GROUPS different pathways through which groups can bolster household and community resilience to The second socioeconomic study explored the floods: (a) saving and lending activity, (b) informal relationship between membership of mutual insurance, (c) non-financial mutual aid, (d) collective aid/savings groups and resilience to floods. This enterprises, and I community service. Members use study drew upon a combination of quantitative these pathways to prepare, respond, and rebuild and qualitative research methods. Specifically, after floods. Specifically, evidence was found of household survey data was collected to measure members sharing information on weather, helping patterns between Village Community Bank each other evacuate at-risk assets, and clearing (VICOBA) group membership and preparation, drains before the rains come. When disaster strikes, response, and recovery from floods. In-depth membership also provides important alternatives interviews and focus groups were also undertaken to selling assets to smooth consumption: members to understand the pathways than underpin these can draw on savings, loans, and insurance pay- patterns. outs instead. Non-members may also benefit, as many groups see helping people beyond the group The final report from this study shows a significant as central to their purpose. Examples include positive relationship between group membership organizing emergency food relief and helping and resilience. According to the data, researchers replenish damaged school supplies. Finally, in some found that nearly one-quarter of households have cases, groups help members build back better — at least one member in a group, and that households generating funds to improve housing or simply with member(s) are 16% to 25% more likely to have moving to a safer location. been able to save in the last month, and 12% to 17% more likely to say they have access to informal These insights have policy implications for financing (all other things being equal). They are Dar es Salaam and across the region, showing also 10% to 12% more likely to have recovered from that savings groups are powerful networks for past flood events. mutual aid and collective action, and that group members, leaders, and trainers can be agents for change in the community at large. This study therefore concluded with three key policy recommendations: 1. Promote knowledge of disaster risk- management among savings group trainers and leaders. 2. Use savings groups to better gather and spread information at the community level. 3. Explore the possibility of matching funds to encourage preventative action“ “My neighbor saved my son’s life. She pulled him out of the floodwater. Because she was part of my savings group, she was able to get emergency cash from our group to pay for a Bajaji to take him to hospital.” – VICOBA group member | Jangwani flooding, April 2018. Photo Credit:Chris Morgan. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 42 | Example of a Sub Ward Community Critical Infrastructure and Risk Map, Mburahati Ward, NHC subward COMMUNITY ASSET and human resources that were used in the Assets AND THREAT INVENTORY and Threats project can be found in the Community Asset and Threat Handbook3 . Recognizing the important roles that communities can play in reducing risk, TURP is dedicated to Data collected via the community assets and the delivery of community-led risk reduction threats identification process is accessible on the activities. Base maps developed in Pillar 1 by Resilience Academy geonode online at: https:// Ramani Huria have been extended in 49 wards geonode.resilienceacademy.ac.tz/layers/geonode:rh_ to include the mapping of community-identified assets_threats_mapping_2018 assets and threats. The resulting inventory covers 243 sub-wards across Dar es Salaam. COMMUNITY RISK REDUCTION PLANS Each community meeting conducted to create The creation of the community asset maps was used the inventory had 10 to 12 participants — two as a foundation for the subsequent development by religious leaders; one leader of a community- TURP consultants, in collaboration with Disaster based organization (CBO) and NGO available at Management Committees, of a toolkit for creating the sub-ward; three representatives from sub- and implementing standardized Community ward, health, and environment committees; one Disaster Risk-Reduction Plans (CDRRP). prominent elderly person with good knowledge of the neighborhood; one prominent young person Comprehensive templates were established for with good knowledge of the neighborhood; and ward-level DRRPs and Master Trainers were trained one to six Shina leaders. Six student mappers from both the TRCS and the Municipality Disaster facilitated the process. The guided discussion Management Committees who will lead the training was based on three major key points: of Ward Disaster-Management Committees. The toolkits, templates, and training were initially 1. Assets (important things in the sub-ward) piloted in three wards: Kigogo, Tandale, and Kawe. 2. Assets under threat if the sub-ward floods 3. Main causes of flood in the sub-ward 3  Available online: https://docs.google.com/document/d/11HQttl5Pb8IF- More detailed descriptions on the methodology gATufV4LxaDn0eCXEcEuA56phrf1X0Y/edit 4 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 | Developing effective Community Disaster Risk-Reduction Plans is a collaborative process A total of 13 sub-wards were reached through these TURP also took on a leading role in the three wards, which included reference to the sub- ward asset and risks maps. It is expected for this project to scale up in FY20 to engage an additional seven Ward Disaster-Management Committees, World Clean Up Day including 35 additional sub-wards. in Dar es Salaam WORLD CLEANUP DAY Poor solid waste management is a growing issue across Tanzania and has been identified in TURP- funded research as a top contributor to disaster risk — clogging drains, polluting waterways, and causing disease outbreaks. Improved solid waste services, combined with community engagement Over 8,000 VOLUNTEERS AND OVER 26,000 are foundational to addressing the current situation. CITIZENS WERE ENGAGED In recognition of this, the TURP team supported Nipe Fagio — a local NGO concerned with solid 145,280 kg waste — in FY19 on the World Cleanup Day, Let’s Do It World Campaign. OR NEARLY 8,000 BAGS OF This campaign involved a series of community TRASH WERE COLLECTED awareness-raising activities, training-of-trainer events related to solid waste management, as well as a 31 large-scale community-led clean-up across Tanzania, where 102 clean-ups were organized in 30 towns in 13 regions, ultimately engaging over 26,000 people, SITES CLEANED IN who helped to collect 18,547 bags — or 466,378 kg DAR ES SALAAM — of trash across the country. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 44 | World Cleanup Day was a highly visible campaign, engaging over 26,000 citizens TURP also took on a leading role in the about the types of waste piles in the Dar es implementation of solid waste hotspot mapping Salaam. The resulting data has enabled analysis, activities associated with this event. The resulting visualization, and development of an artificial data was not only critical for successful delivery intelligence (AI)-based tool to quantify waste of the project, but it continues to inform waste hotspots. Using machine learning, 9,172 waste pile management initiatives in Dar es Salaam. images were processed via an analysis tool (http:// trash-detection.herokuapp.com/) to detect if they While overseeing this project, TURP worked with contained trash. Of those images, 1,555, or 17%, Nipe Fagio to conduct brand audits for 31 sites were found to contain no trash, while 7,617 images cleaned in Dar es Salaam. This effort engaged over (83%) contained trash. A visualization of the image 8,000 volunteers and resulted in nearly 8,000 analysis can now be accessed via the trash map bags — or 145,280 kg — of trash collected. It was (http://dar-trash-viz.herokuapp.com/) under the recorded that much of the waste collected had been Analysis menu. Sample image analysis produced by produced by Tanzania-based manufacturers and a the trash detection tool is also available at http:// few recognizable global brands. Nipe Fagio has used trash-detection.herokuapp.com/. this audit to effectively lobby the government and private sector to “Break Free from Plastic”. During FY19, the development of a Twaa Mtaro (Adopt a Drain) operational maintenance system was paused and efforts were redirected. In part, Waste Hotspots the early warning and early action functions have been merged into an EMIS (discussed in Pillar 3) and the drainage and waste visualization tools geared towards supporting waste mapping and 19,172 analytics. Twaa Mtaro was used as an interactive WASTE PILE IMAGES web and mobile tool for the trash-mapping WERE PROCESSED 83% IMAGES CONTAINED VIA AN ANALYSIS activities supporting Ramani Huria and Nipe Fagio. TRASH TOOL This project engaged more than 100 student mappers in locating and collecting information 4 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 MSIMBAZI RIVER REVITALIZATION: harm’s way, and some hazardous areas can be BASIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK reclaimed and made safe for urban development. AND SPECIAL PLANNING AREA These interventions have been outlined in detail within the Msimbazi Opportunity, a three- As reported in FY18, the TURP team conducted volume plan packaged and distributed widely a participatory design charrette to provide the across government and stakeholder institutions. analytical basis for informed decision-making on the mitigation of flooding in and around the The first steps to set the plan into action were Msimbazi River Basin. Outputs from the process initiated in August 2018, when the Strategic were produced in the form of (a) a Strategic Development and Management Framework Development & Management Framework; (b) a and the Detailed Plan for the Lower Basin were Detailed Plan for the Lower Msimbazi; (c) a new publicly presented. During this time, Selemani boundary for Msimbazi Special Planning Area; Jafo, Minister of State, PO-RALG, and January and (d) a flood model calibrated specifically for Makamba, Minister of State, Vice President’s assessing the benefit of interventions in their Office, Environment and Union Affairs both lower basin. pledged their support. PO-RALG is now actively engaging with Ministry of Finance to secure initial Over FY19, these outputs galvanized support funding from the World Bank. from all levels for an integrated course of action that will result in significant benefits for the For the lower section, costs are estimated at USD city. Civil engineering works, such as dredging, $55 million, and for the upper section, USD $49 will increase the water conveyance capacity million. Other related costs, such as reforestation of the river. Ecological interventions, such as and sediment traps in upper areas, that are upstream reforestation, will reduce erosion and essential for sustainability of the Lower Basin sedimentation. Improved land use planning and investments over the long term, are estimated at enforcement will keep people and assets out of USD $10 million. The preliminary estimated total costs, therefore, are USD $114 million. | Three design principles at the core of the plan for intervention T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 46 | Existing Situation in the Lower Msimbazi | Envisioned Situation in the Lower Msimbazi (with intervention) By combining comprehensive drainage land be transformed into a wetland park that will improvements with commercial development, the provide both recreational and ecological value detailed plan for the Lower Basin would establish for the city of Dar es Salaam. a framework that coordinates investments from various sources, including government, private sector, and development partners to restore the highly vulnerable flood plain in the middle of the city, and turns this area it into a valuable city asset. In FY19, the TURP-associated City Resilience Program (CRP) commissioned PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) for 18 weeks to study project-structuring for the new 57 hectares mixed-use urban development in the Lower Msimbazi Basin to streamline project preparation. The study aligns the proposed development vision with current considerations, views of relevant stakeholders, TURP goals, and market; includes a financial evaluation based on financial models, including testing key financial ratios and other relevant key performance indicators (KPIs) and sensitivities; and evaluates feasible delivery models, transaction structures, and institutional arrangements. Noted within the Msimbazi Opportunity, even with the proposed interventions, most of the valley’s lowest-lying lands will remain unsafe for human habitation. For these areas, it has been proposed that residents be resettled according to international best practices, and flood-prone | Potential for urban development around the Msimbazi 47 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 However, with time and a changing climate, the once-perennial riverbed has become seasonal. For much of the year, the river is almost completely dry. Then the rain comes and the river changes in character dramatically, causing flash floods to occur along the river and its many tributaries. These have often resulted in several fatalities each year, along with the destruction of critical infrastructure supporting the city. To pragmatically address the recurrent flood risk in Dar es Salaam, a participatory design process known as a ‘Charrette’ was undertaken from January to August 2018 involving the dedicated efforts of more than 200 people from 59 institutions and communities across 30 working sessions. Led by the PO-RALG with support from the World Bank’s UKAID-funded Tanzania Urban Resilience Program, this process has yielded The Msimbazi Opportunity Plan – a comprehensive blueprint for transforming the | May 13, 2019 BRT Depot and Jangwani BRT Station basin from a hazardous liability into a beacon of (Morogoro Road). Photo credit: Chris Morgan. urban resilience. Msimbazi River Revitalization Interventions for the Lower Basin 3km OF WIDENED AND DEEPENED RIVER FOR IMPROVED HYDRAULIC CAPACITY 300m BRIDGE DESIGNED TO ACCOMMODATE A 100-YEAR EVENT FOR IMPROVED URBAN MOBILITY 57 hectares OF NEW LAND FOR RETAIL, COMMERCIAL, AND RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR CITY CENTER MODERNIZATION T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 48 4 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 50 Spotlight Story Transforming the Msimbazi from a Liability to an Opportunity LINK www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/08/12/transforming-tanzanias-msimbazi-river-from-a-liability-into-an-opportunity 51 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 The Msimbazi Valley is a vast greenspace in the center of Dar es Salaam – Tanzania’s commercial hub city that houses 27% of the city’s population. Historically, the river served as an important water source, and the fertile floodplain provided prime land for agriculture and animal grazing. STRATEGIES FOR INTERVENTION The Msimbazi Opportunity Plan envisages four strategies to redesign the Msimbazi: Mitigate, Protect, Transform, and Govern. The Mitigate strategy aims to reduce the flood hazard itself, while the Protect strategy aims to reduce the people, properties, and vital infrastructure that are exposed to the flood hazard. Under the Transform strategy, the goal is to convert the most flood-prone areas of the valley into a city park and redevelop surrounding neighborhoods. The Govern strategy will nurture a planned and coordinated process for urban development and ecosystem restoration in the Msimbazi Basin, and thus stop the current uncontrolled urbanization process that results in increased flooding. | Place title here. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 52 The Msimbazi Opportunity 27% OF THE CITY’S POPULATION IS NOW IMPACTED BY FLOODING IN THE MSIMBAZI USD$900m USD $740m POTENTIAL REVENUE IN POTENTIAL REVENUE FOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS THE GOVERNMENT OF TANZANIA DESIGN PRINCIPLES FOR Proposed section in A RESILIENT RIVER BASIN t= 100 flood event To better understand the flood hazard affecting the basin, flash floods were simulated through a flood model by considering bursts of rainfall over Proposed section in t= 10 flood event a relatively short period of time. Based on the results, which showed in detail how the Msimbazi Basin is impacted by flooding and how this will affect the area over time, three priority design Proposed section in wet situation principles were identified within the Msimbazi Opportunity Plan for initial implementation: River: Focus on conveyance to drain river water Proposed section in dry situation from the basin to the ocean as quickly as possible • In this plan, the Msimbazi River is given room in the Lower Basin to respond to severe peaks | Section Hananasif - Sinza River, Sunna of water that it transports from the upper 5 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 catchment to the ocean. A series of three interventions have been conceptualized, involving dredging of the river channel and additional widening and raising of key bridges. Terraces: Create elevated terraces to guide the water and create higher edges to protect against flooding • The basic principle of the terraces is to use the material that becomes available from dredging for the formation of elevated terraces. The terraces will be constructed in phases and filled terrace sections will be protected against erosion immediately at the end of each construction phase. The intention is to create space for the river, while reclaiming parts of the floodplain for the development of the proposed city park. Detailed Areas: Create a city park with functional uses of the terraces and the flood plains • The Msimbazi Opportunity Plan contains | Msimbazi site visit. Photo credit: Chris Morgan. several location-specific elements to revitalize the area and unlock its environmental, social, and economic potential. • The city park is envisioned as an accessible, wide green space that is well connected to the surrounding areas and urban fabric. • Wetlands and Mangroves are envisioned as part of the park space that includes the river channel and flood plains, with a system of footpaths and footbridges that will facilitate public access • Urban Development Areas are envisioned as a new urban front towards the valley and the new city park, enabled by terracing MAXIMIZING FINANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT Based on the Urban Development guidelines designed for the project, the urban regeneration potential across 57 hectares of land could provide over 14,500 real estate units across a range of | Prime Land Reclamation - 57 ha of new land for retail, commercial, typologies, sizes, and places. and residential development for city center modernization T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 54 By combining comprehensive drainage MOVING FORWARD improvements with commercial development, the detailed plan for the Lower Basin would establish With this comprehensive plan in place, the GoT a framework that coordinates investments from is now taking steps to move from planning to various sources, including government, private action. Through additional support from the sector, and development partners to restore the World Bank’s City Resilience Program, the project highly vulnerable flood plain and turn this area is now advancing to undertake a commercial and into a valuable city asset. market review, financial analysis, and regulatory and transaction structuring assessment, which Preliminary analysis leads to a projected estimate will collectively further guide the project’s of USD $900 million in potential revenues in implementation. housing development, which is only one portion of expected economic benefits. Based on projected cash flows from different economic activities within the valley, cost recovery on capital expenditure would be reached over a period of 12 years and at an expected internal CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED rate of return of 18% | Place title here 5 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 During FY19, the focus for Pillar 2 has been on quantifying and advocating the benefits of identified risk reduction and planning activities. The outputs of the Msimbazi Charrette in Pillar 2 Challenges particular have been designed, packaged, and presented to various decision-makers. Feedback from GoT stakeholders has led to additional CUSTOMIZING FOR analysis on economic returns, private sector A RANGE OF AUDIENCES partnership opportunities, and alignment with associated infrastructure investment such as a proposed wastewater treatment plant. Similarly, activities advocated for by community DISASTER MANAGEMENT risk-planning initiatives and through civil COMMITTEE SUSTAINABILITY society efforts have raised awareness and demand for projects addressing solid waste, drainage, mobility, and recovery. Through the implementation of such activities, some FINANCIALS identified challenges include: In FY19, Pillar 2 projects were allotted funding • Customizing for a Range of Audiences – The from three grants: Risk Mitigation Planning, conclusion of the Msimbazi Design Charrette Msimbazi River Revitalization, and SWIFT has not been the conclusion of the project Surveys on poverty and floods. Funds disbursed design, but rather its inception. Work has been by these grants amounted to USD $1,046,000. necessary to present the project interventions to various decision makers and ensure Financial summaries are detailed in Section 8. alignment with several ongoing government priorities. This has led to additional studies and consultations in order to provide sufficient justification on economic grounds as well as coordination with ongoing projects. • Disaster Management Committee Sustainability – The roll-out of the community risk reduction planning process has been conducted via a pilot due to uncertainties regarding the sustainability of ward- and sub-ward-level village disaster management committees. Such entities are called for in the 2015 Disaster Management Act of Tanzania, but in practice are nascent. As such, without formal procedures and structures in place, there has been uncertainty on how to budget transactions, training, and meetings. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 56 Pillar 3 Emergency Management + Response OBJECTIVE Aligning with this shift, a series of Training, Exercises, and Drills (TED) were conducted, an To strengthen the capacity of stakeholders EMIS was introduced, and Community Disaster involved in short-term disaster events and Response (CDR) plans were piloted across Dar preparedness to cope with specific emergency es Salaam. Most of these activities have been scenarios. supported by, or have served as support for, DarMAERT, with the goal of maximizing impact OVERVIEW OF PROGRESS through integrated and coordinated response. The priorities of Pillar 3 shifted from procurement of equipment to capacity building and systems development in FY19. 57 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Damage Assessment Support COMPLETE Ramani Huria- affected household surveys during April 2019 flood and workshop planned for a national Lessons Learned Exchange and Post Disaster Needs Assessment; - set of July 2019. Training, Exercises, ONGOING First of four training modules delivered to DarMAERT and Drills (TED) Emergency Operations Center ONGOING Proposal is now being prepared for the structure and Support Structure management of the center Emergency Management ONGOING Development, testing, and validation concluded Information SystemEMIS Community Response Plans ONGOING Templates, toolkits, and training piloted in three wards (covering 13 sub-wards) Early Warning ONGOING In partnership between the TAHMO Bus Rapid TransitBRT SystemEWS Pilot Flood Forecast demonstration and Community Water Watch project with focus on TRCS use case. TRAINING, EXERCISES, AND DRILLS One of the main challenges faced by DarMAERT has been limited access to resources for the training of emergency responders. TURP has addressed this by designing a comprehensive two-year TED program that follows international standard practices and procedures of emergency management agencies. | Installing radio stations. Photo credit: Chris Morgan TED is comprised of a series of skills and training courses, as well as exercises and drills, that effectively build competency in the field of emergency response. It was designed with the active participation of DarMAERT core members and is being facilitated by an international consulting firm from the Philippines (EMI) in partnership with Ardhi University from Tanzania. The first training module, ‘Understanding an Integrated Emergency Management System’, | The TED program will equip emergency responders with was delivered in April 2019, during which 36 current, standardized skills for improved coordination T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 58 responders from DarMAERT were introduced to critical concepts behind emergency management EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT systems. By the end of FY20, it is expected that INFORMATION SYSTEM DarMAERT will have completed all four readiness levels for emergency response: (1) Understanding, The EMIS is expected to function at the core (2) Planning, (3) Practicing, and (4) Executing an of the EOCC. Once installed, EMIS will serve Integrated Emergency Management System. as a collaborative platform that can facilitate communication, planning, and actions before (to EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER mitigate and be prepared), during (to improve SUPPORT STRUCTURE response), and after (to aid recovery) a disaster. It consists of components that collectively provide Another gap in Dar es Salaam’s emergency data and tools to process and analyze early management, as highlighted by DarMAERT, warnings for early action. has been a lack of centralized coordination. As part of the work that is being conducted under In early FY19, development, testing, and the TED program, a proposal is being prepared validation of the EMIS platform was conducted to fill this gap by establishing an Emergency by TURP team. This was followed by the delivery Operations and Communication Center (EOCC) of technical training to DarMAERT and agencies in Dar es Salaam. of the EOCC through which feedback was communicated to improve upon the platform’s The proposal includes the appropriate structuring contextual functionality. It is expected that, of a center that combines the needs of all through close collaboration with the DarMAERT DarMAERT agencies, as well as the development coordinator, EMIS will be fully operationalized of protocols for its operation and management. during FY20. Due to delays, the implementation of this activity has been postponed to FY20, but critical steps have been taken to prepare. | Emergency Management Information System (EMIS)platform 5 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 3 wards principally affected in the lower Msimbazi basin Hananasif SUBWARD Mkunguni B SURFACE AREA 1.85km2 FLOOD PRONE AREA 0.57km2 150 HOUSES FLOODED 30% OF THE AREA IS FLOOD PRONE Tandale SUBWARD Mkunduge + Sokoni SURFACE AREA 1.17km2 FLOOD PRONE AREA 0.35km2 1100 HOUSES 31% FLOODED OF THE AREA IS (MKUNDUGE) FLOOD PRONE 230 HOUSES FLOODED (SOKONI) Jangwani SUBWARD Mtambani SURFACE AREA 0.6km2 FLOOD PRONE AREA 0.14km2 800 HOUSES FLOODED 23% OF THE AREA IS FLOOD PRONE | Result of Community Household Surveys in response to March 3rd Flood Event T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 60 Thus far, templates have been established and Master Trainers have been trained from both the TRCS and the Municipality Disaster Management Committees, who will lead the training of Ward Disaster Management Committees. The training, toolkits, and templates were piloted in three of the city’s most flood-affected wards: Kigogo, Tandale, and Kawe. A total of 13 sub-wards were reached through these three wards. In FY20, training on the CDPRP will reach an additional nine Ward Disaster Management Committees with a goal of strengthening community resilience through clear and effective protocols on how to respond in the event of a flood. | Flood Impact Assessment Map Developed by Community Respondents in Kwa Mkunduge Subward of Tandale EARLY WARNING PILOT following the March 3, 2019 flooding In 2018, TURP agreed to collaborate on the DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SUPPORT development and piloting of EWSs with a consortium of existing TURP partners — During the 2019 rainy season, Dar es Salaam Deltares, TU Delft, Flood Tags, and TRCS experienced significant flooding in March, April, — which have formed a project known as and May events. Several tools and methods were Community Water Watch (CWW). CWW has deployed to support DarMAERT in understanding mobilized additional resources and built on prior expected damages as well as to validate new work financed by TURP in hydraulic modelling, approaches that can be scaled up in the future. capacity building, community engagement, and flood monitoring. CWW launched activities in As a response to heavy rainfall on March 3, 2019, October 2018 for a co-designed flood EWS that which resulted in heavy flooding in some wards adopts and organizes existing open online media of Dar es Salaam, the Ramani Huria team was communication channels, relies on innovative mobilized to conduct field mapping. This activity affordable and robust weather stations, and engaged affected communities with the aim of uses hydrological models, built on open data and conducting a rapid assessment and producing Ramani Huria data. impact maps. Three wards were principally affected in the lower Msimbazi basin. Building also on the TAHMO stations, CWW has developed an online media-based dashboard, COMMUNITY RESPONSE PLANS demonstrating situational awareness and forecast models. The service has been developed Responding to community demand for localized with partners on the ground, led by TRCS and disaster response, TURP has developed and DMD, so that an effective community co-design finalized a toolkit support the Ward Disaster can be realized. The dashboard aims to be piloted Management Committees in creating Community on data from the Msimbazi and surrounding Disaster Preparedness and Response Plans wards, which are the most flood-prone areas of (CDPRP) specific to the needs of their communities. Dar es Salaam. 6 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 | Monitoring and forecasting chain Source: Community Water Watch EVENT STARTS THREAT (recognized) RESPONSE/ACTION FLOOD OCCURS ANALYSIS ACTION MONITORING NOTIFICATION DECISION MAKING WARNING (FORECASTING) (MITIGATION) Maximum (potential) lead time Lead time Mitigation time | The ‘monitoring and forecasting chain’ following stakeholder workshop October 2018 Source: Community Water Watch During late 2018, the consortium engaged in Four possible candidates for piloting CWW were a “Rational Unified Process,” a design process identified and formulated as use cases. The four that leads to effective co-design, development users include TRCS, DarMAERT, PMO-DMD, and and transfer. Interviews were held with key the Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit Agency (DART). stakeholders to understand the problems they Two use cases involving TRCS and DART have face, their needs, and their capabilities. since been selected for pilot development and This activity led to a better understanding of work on them is currently ongoing. how the different organizations (users) see their responsibilities regarding flood early warning. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 62 | Information Flow for Dar es Salaam Flood EWS Source: CWW | Prototype – Flood Monitoring and Forecast Dashboard Besides the use case selection and forecast existing meteorological data, supplemental development, TURP has support Flood Tags measurements from TAHMO stations reading to develop a flood monitoring and forecast both meteo-sensors and river gauges, social dashboard. This visualization is a web-based media data, and direct use confirmations. The tool that demonstrates how to combine data flow is illustrated above and the current and use a variety of input datasets from dashboard view is shown above. 6 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 components of preparedness and response, such as the community mapping in support of impact assessments. Some specific challenges How it Works and lessons have been: Flood EWS Dar es Salaam • The relocation of DMD and the National Emergency Operations Center from Dar es Salaam to Dodoma has left some To suit the needs of specific end-users — uncertainties regarding the resources including their required forecast locations, and functionality of the Dar es Salaam required information (water levels, impacts), Emergency Operations Center, since these and required forecasting lead time — the Flood facilities were jointly located. EWS Dar es Salaam system is configured with a number of workflows through which relevant • A lack of government resources for the activities are carried out. creation and activation of village-level disaster management committees mandated If only short lead times are required (e.g., the user needs to know what the water level will be in the next one to in the 2015 Disaster Management Act is eight hours), water levels are estimated from simple a barrier to participation and effective relationships. For example, the future water level at the Jangwani Bridge is estimated from the currently observed activation of local level ward and sub-ward water level at an upstream gauge for lead times up to committees. about two hours, while lead times of up to eight hours can be reached with regression relationships against upstream rainfall only. Pillar 3 Challenges When longer lead times are required (e.g., the user needs to know what the water level or flooded area will be in the next five days), the rain that is forecast has yet to fall, and therefore hydrologic and hydraulic models, forced with numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, will be established, which allow forecasts for water level and flood RELOCATION OF DMD AND areas for seven days. It will use the already established models from earlier TURP projects as a baseline. THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER Users may also require different levels of model granularity. One user may need to know the forecast for a specific point location with a high temporal resolution (e.g., hourly), whereas another user may need the forecast aggregated over sub-wards at a lower temporary resolution (e.g., daily). LACK OF GOVERNMENT The Flood EWS system has a number of transformation RESOURCES functions that allow for aggregation or disaggregation of the results to the required temporal and spatial resolution. The outputs from the Flood EWS Dar es Salaam feeding the CWW dashboard will be tailored to the requirements of the end users. FINANCIALS Over FY19, Pillar 3 projects disbursed funding CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED amounting to USD $629,000, with a total program disbursement to date for this pillar The 2019 rainy season was once again a of USD $1,316,000. Financial summaries are destructive period. While EWSs are not yet detailed in Section 8. at an operational stage, this year has served to validate use cases and test subsystems and T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 64 Resilience Academy A digital hub offering tools, knowledge and skills for resilience “The pace of growth in the city was just going too fast for our old approaches. This is giving us an opportunity to reflect and mainstream new technologies and innovations — equipping the next generation in the process” - Dr. Ally Namangaya, Dean of SPSS, Ardhi University OBJECTIVE ensuring that sustainability is realized through three key activities: (a) compiling data into a centralized To maximize program impact and sustainability and open database, (b) developing coursework through the establishment of university to be embedded into university curricula, and (c) partnerships that transfer skills and risk delivering training and capacity building on risk management tools to the next generation of urban data and systems. This will ultimately support planners. the expansion of the program across the country and the continent and is intended to improve OVERVIEW OF PROGRESS understanding of the whole extent, exposure, and vulnerability of flooding at the community level. As TURP passes its mid-point of operation, sustainability of programming has become a major In FY19, Resilience Academy operationalized focus. Conceptualized as a way to provide long- engagement between Ardhi University, University term impact of methodologies and best practices of Dar es Salaam, State University of Zanzibar, and developed under TURP, the Resilience Academy is Sokoine University with support from University of Turku, and foundational activities were conducted. 6 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Curriculum for Risk Mapping ONGOING The CRD is now available in geonode format at https:// geonode.resilienceacademy.ac.tz and will be updated and managed by the Resilience Academy Climate Risk Database ONGOING Eight academic modules divided over four themes are for Research currently in development, based on content of the Ramani Huria cookbook released in FY18 Capacity Building and Training ONGOING Industrial placement equipped over 500 students with in Risk Data and Systems community- mapping skills and tools Sustainability model now being prepared for institution- managed delivery through the Resilience Academy CLIMATE RISK DATABASE This activity is described in Pillar 1. However, it should be noted that the Resilience Academy, including all four engaged Tanzanian universities, has been active in building prior work and datasets curated by TURP. Specifically, team members have parsed various data repositories in 2019 to curate relevant data, update metadata and documentation, and ensure improved standards harmonization. CURRICULUM FOR RISK MAPPING Based upon the content of FY18’s Ramani Huria cookbook, which was a review of the Ramani Huria approach to participatory mapping, eight academic modules related to risk mapping are now being developed. It is expected that, once finalized, these will be integrated into Tanzanian University curricula for the Master of Science (MSc) in GIS at Ardhi University and the MSc in Data Science at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM). They will also be published online through the Resilience Academy platform as open courseware. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 66 INDUSTRIAL PLACEMENT multiple faculties at the Universities of Dar es Salaam and Ardhi, up from 300 the previous year. An annual Industrial Placement training program, These students were offered both classroom delivered by the Ramani Huria team, has run from training and field-based practical skills on data July to September each year since the inception collection, interviewing, surveying, and monitoring, of TURP. In 2018, increased demand led to the and the amount of data that was collected through successful training of over 500 students from their involvement was unprecedented. The 4 Module Themes A Open data for resileince MODULE 1 Geonode installation, tailoring, and maintenance MODULE 2 Geospatial data quality, data management, and sharing MODULE 3 Data visualization for resilience B Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate MODULE 4 Flood mapping, modeling, and predictions MODULE 5 Climate change and resilience impacts C Community Mapping for Improved Spatial Plannig MODULE 6 Participatory/community mapping methods and geospatial tools in spatial planning MODULE 7 Ramani Huria community mapping practice D Earth Observation for Resilience MODULE 8 Machine Learning and AI methods in satellite and drone image processing, and mapping of exposure, hazards, and risks 6 7 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Industry placement 02 MSC STUDENTS HAVE COMPLETED THEIR FIELD WORK AND TWO MORE WILL START IN SEPTEMBER 2019 MSC STUDENTS FROM TU DELFT AND DAR ES SALAAM UNIVERSITIES HAVE BEEN TRAINED AND SUPERVISED THE MSC THESIS OF ONE OF THE STUDENTS IS EXPECTED BY DECEMBER 2019 | The Industrial Training Program offered by TURP continues to be the most popular choice for students at Ardhi University T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 68 Several students also took part in the solid waste mapping activities, through which they contributed to the collection of critical solid waste data being used to guide waste management in Dar es Salaam. As the Ramani Huria project comes to a close, the Resilience Academy team is now working to develop a sustainability model for this training program by effectively integrating it into university curricula. The first iteration of training, supervised by the Tanzanian University partners, will take place from August through October 2019, and train a total of 150 Tanzanian students from UDSM, Ardhi, and State University of Zanzibar (SUZA). 6 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 (MoU) structure can be determined with associate guidelines for institutions to join and contribute course content, data, tools, researchers, or other resources. • Oversubscribing Industrial Placement again – The placement in industry of 550 students during July – September 2018 was at an unprecedented level, with university departments requesting to submit more. For the 2019 placement process, only 150 students could be accommodated, as much greater emphasis has been placed on achieving a spread of departments and transferring the mechanisms for selection, training, supervision and assessment of students from Ramani Huria to the university departments. Developing a financial plan for future iterations is under discussion and will be important for sustainability. ResilienceAcademy CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED Challenges The development of the Resilience Academy has FORMALIZING PARTNERSHIP been a collaborative process involving local and international partners. Challenges have been generally characterized by the sequencing and coordination needed between these parties as OVERSUBSCRIBING INDUSTRIAL new ideas are introduced and consulted through PLACEMENT various existing coordination mechanisms. Specific challenges are: • Formalizing partnership – The concept for the Resilience Academy remains popular with universities, researchers, and prospective risk information partners. As such, there is a wide FINANCIALS variety of possible collaborations that need to be assessed and prioritized. A consultation is In FY19, RA projects were allotted funding from currently underway with the four Tanzanian one grant: TF0A4238 Resilience Academy. Funds universities to determine the nature of formal disbursed through this grant amounted to USD requirement to join the Resilience Academy $230,862. and what form of agreement is required. Ideally a template Memorandum of Understanding Financial summaries are detailed in Section 8. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 70 Program Management OBJECTIVE on maintaining coordination across the program team and between program partners, Program management and administrative while also broadening the reach of program activities for the TF include, but are not limited to, communications. These included: supporting program governance arrangements • Coordination of monthly internal team and TF-related meetings; planning and executing meetings with a rotating focus on Pillars work plans and budgets; managing communication • Management of an online collaborative digital and conducting outreach; disseminating lessons repository for program information learned; reporting on progress; and monitoring • Implementation of a media communication and evaluating the program. strategy, including the development of collaborative stories with the World Bank and OVERVIEW OF PROGRESS external partners, and continued production of a short video documentaries on program During FY19, activities continued under all achievements four Pillars of TURP, demanding attentive • Delivery of a series of community engagement coordination from the program management initiatives to integrate students, artists, and team. Given the high level of activity and other groups into dialogue on urban resilience interactions, efforts during FY19 have focused 7 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS International conference COMPLETE URTZ 2018, TURP’s annual conference, took place in August 2018 at the Julius Nyerere International Convention Centre as a collaborative event with the Free Open Source Software for Geospatial (FOSS4G) community Steering Committee COMPLETE 1 meeting conducted in February 2019 meetings Technical Advisory COMPLETE 1 meeting conducted in June 2019 Committee meetings Annual review and annual ONGOING Preparation for the annual review is ongoing – to take place in work plan update September/October 2019 Communication ONGOING Narrative below COMMUNICATION at Julius Nyerere International Convention Centre. The winning piece, based on the results External Communication of a public vote, was painted upon a wall in a high- traffic area within Dar es Salaam’s most flood- Over FY19, the priority of TURP communications prone ward, where it continues to ignite public shifted from strategic design to implementation, discussion on resilience. with a goal of extending the reach of program communication beyond partner communities. To achieve this, the communications team moved beyond the use of communications as a public relations tool towards conceptualizing and implementing a series of impactful community engagement initiatives. The first of these was a mural challenge, which introduced the local arts community to the concept of urban resilience by inviting artists to produce engaging works that tackled the topic. The challenge commenced by engaging over 50 artists in a dialogue on disaster risk in Tanzania and the critical role that the creative community can play in envisioning solutions. After the two- day workshop, 33 artists submitted proposal pieces to be considered for translation into large- scale murals. Ten pieces were then shortlisted and incorporated into an exhibition, which was held at the 2018 Understanding Risk Tanzania (URTZ) conference T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 72 “I believe my art can impact society, and I feel happy when I see a change that my art has brought to the community. Most people are blind to important issues like climate change, but, if they see art, they will get the message clearly.” – Nickson Jeremiah, Mural Challenge Artist The second scheduled engagement was a Disaster Risk Reporting workshop, hosted in partnership with the Disaster Risk Network of African Journalists (DIRAJ). This activity trained regional journalists on reporting standards and techniques used within the international disaster risk community, emphasizing the important role of the media in effectively communicating risk to the public. Ten local and five international journalists (from Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda) attended the training, which took place as part of URTZ 2018. During the conference, the journalists were exposed to the position of disaster risk- reduction within current affairs and gained a better understanding of its connection with other major global issues such as migration, food shortage, and health. | In FY19, TURP comms extended the reach of dialogue on urban resilience through community engagement activities 7 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Their involvement improved public Spectrum, National Geographic) news agencies. It is expected that, through their stories, a global awareness on conference proceedings, audience in the hundreds of thousands have now with active use of the hashtag #URTZ2018 accessed information related to the program and achieving impressions exceeding 1.4 million to disaster risk-reduction in Tanzania. Following the event, the training participants Publishing also continued through the World collaboratively produced long-form stories on Bank platforms, upon which three stories and the topic of risk and resilience in Tanzania, which three videos related to TURP were shared during were shared widely across the East African the FY. The outward-facing TURP website was region. updated to include these stories and reflect program progress and changes. TURP’s communication team worked to extend this journalistic engagement over FY19 by connecting with local (Azam Television, The Citizen, The Guardian) and international (BBC, T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 74 URTZ Estimated Reach 658,014 EXPOSURE ACCOUNTS REACHED 50 28 1,448, 756 IMPRESSIONS 10 08 03 <10 0k <1k <10k <10 0k <10 0+ ACTIVITY 100 TWEETS 36 5 DAYS 05 REPLIES CONTRIBUTORS 60 29 TWEETS 40 20 0 AUG 28 AUG 29 AUG 30 AUG 31 SEP 01 66 RETWEETS The hashtag used to promote URTZ 2018, #URTZ2018, achieved impressions exceeding 1.4 million 75 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 76 Spotlight Story The Art of Resilience 7 7 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 In 2018, local artists were challenged by the TURP to engage in the “art of resilience” using creativity to envision a Dar es Salaam that is resilient to climate and disaster risk. “As agents of cultural shift, art and artists raise Breuninger Stiftung (Berlin) on Art and Resilience the alarm; they raise consciousness; and they raise In 2018, local artists were challenged by the TURP spirits. They bring us to our senses, helping us to feel, to engage in the “art of resilience” using creativity think, and see differently. They are portrayers of the to envision a Dar es Salaam that is resilient to possible, provoking and informing the imagination climate and disaster risk. The challenge attracted of states beyond present conditions, and conveying 33 proposals for a large-scale mural to encourage the promise and potential of transformation. public dialogue on the subject. Applicants were The movement towards greater urban resilience given a chance to attend a two-day workshop to has begun, and it involves multi-sectoral efforts better understand the complex notion of urban to manage complex challenges. It is co-creative. resilience and how art can help to tackle it. The The art of resilience could be restated as the art top 10 had the opportunity to present their of learning to live together as though our future designs during URTZ 2018, where conference really mattered. Writers, musicians, filmmakers, participants voted for their favorites to be painted architects, designers must engage us all, whether as on a wall in the flood-prone Jangwani area of Dar audience, students, or collaborators, in co-creating es Salaam. a new narrative for humanity.” - Excerpt from a dialogue supported by Musagetes, the J.W. McConnell Foundation (Montreal) and the T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 78 The Top Two Winners Isack Amini Architecture, Student + Artist, University of Dar es Salaam, 23 Isack Amini won the Resilient Dar Mural Challenge with an intricate design that reflected his deep connection to the topic. “This victory means a lot to me because I see my design touching lives and giving hope to the people of Jangwani and the Msimbazi valley,” said Amini. Amini makes use of his talent to sketch, draw, and paint people, and design residential houses, but also spends a significant amount of time volunteering on urban activities. He says that he saw a window of opportunity through this challenge to engage in art as “My advice to young artists in Tanzania a way of inspiring and motivating his generation. is to use their talent, stay hungry, and do what it takes to make to make a positive impact on your community.” Nickson Jeremiah Graphic Designer + Artist, Arusha, 19 The runner-up was Nickson Jeremiah, a 19-year-old who travelled all the way from Arusha to Dar es Salaam to participate in the challenge after finding an advertisement online. Jeremiah was inspired by the opportunity to use his talent to address challenges posed by climate change and disaster risk. He notes that climate change most severely affects women in his village who have to endure long journeys to fetch water, collect firewood, and are relied upon to take care of the family - particularly in times of disaster. “My Illustration features a girl (the dreamer) holding the city of her dreams, a green city full of trees, clean water — a well-planned city that she can call home. She is calling upon the community to join hands in bringing her dreams to reality,” Jeremiah explained. Jeremiah completed his ordinary secondary education in 2017 and attained a “This is the greatest achievement for scholarship at his dream school in Dubai, but it wasn’t enough to convince his me as an artist. I believe my art can move. Instead, he took courses online and continues to do research on YouTube and impact society and I feel happy when I Pinterest to get ideas and improve his skills as an artist. see a change that my art has brought to the community. Most people are He dreams of becoming not just a professional artist, but an artist that influences blind to important issues like climate change through his work. change, but, if they see art, they will get the message clearly.” 7 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 OUTPUT CATEGORY LINK Collaboration WEBSITE https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/tanzania-urban- for Development resilience-online-community TURP Website WEBSITE http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/tanzania-urban-resilience- program Ramani Huria Website WEBSITE http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/03/09/elevating- emergency-response-in-tanzania Resilience Academy WEBSITE https://resilienceacademy.ac.tz Website Community Risk WEBSITE https://geonode.resilienceacademy.ac.tz Database/Geonode TURP YouTube Channel YOUTUBE CHANNEL https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC-8Wdo9CUFBj2UjAKwgvug TURP/URTZ Social Media SOCIAL MEDIA https://tweetreach.com/reports/21824121 ENGAGEMENT Citizen science for WB FEATURE STORY https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/05/15/in- reduced flood risk in tanzania-citizen-scientists-help-reduce-flood-risk-with-soil-sampling Tanzania Why do people live in WB FEATURE STORY https://blogs.worldbank.org/nasikiliza/why-do-people-live-in-flood- flood prone areas – prone-areas-reflections-from-dar-es-salaam reflections from Dar es Salaam Envisioning Urban WB FEATURE STORY https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/10/15/ Resilience for Tanzania envisioning-urban-resilience-for-tanzania Jangwani Dreaming EXTERNAL STORY http://diraj.org/jangwani-dreaming-hope-for-dar-poor-neighborhood- as-work-set-to-start-on-slum-upgrade/ Paint My Tomorrow EXTERNAL STORY http://diraj.org/paint-my-tomorrow-dar-es-salaam/ Bonde La Msimbazi EXTERNAL STORY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCBRjBUSWUc New plan in place to EXTERNAL STORY https://www.ippmedia.com/en/news/new-plan-place-address-dar’s- address Dar’s flooding woes flooding-woes-during-rainy-seasons Student attends URTZ EXTERNAL STORY https://www.suaso.sua.ac.tz/?p=1698 Conference January Makamba EXTERNAL STORY https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1035241618184519685.html officiates meeting on Tanzania Urban Resilinece John Bevington travels to EXTERNAL STORY https://www.jbaconsulting.com/knowledge-hub/john-bevington- Tanzania for URTZ 2018 travels-to-tanzania-for-the-urtz-2018-conference/ T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 80 Tanzania builds a local EXTERNAL STORY https://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/drones/tanzanias-homegrown- drone industry drone-industry-takes-off-on-bamboo-wings Tackling Dar es Salaam’s EXTERNAL STORY https://www.ippmedia.com/en/features/hot-tackles-dar-es-salaam’s- waste problem one waste-problem-one-dataset-time dataset at a time Local graduate using EXTERNAL STORY https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/magazine/success/-Local-graduate- drones for mapping using-drones-for-mapping/1843788-4967500-c6pj0rz/index.html Local graduates develop EXTERNAL STORY https://www.bbc.com/swahili/bbc_swahili_radio/w172wwnjfs4sb32 bamboo drone Mapping Africa’s EXTERNAL STORY https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswgqx megacities Trash mapping and EXTERNAL STORY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y77bwq8XnJM local impact This Tanzanian city may EXTERNAL STORY https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/04/ soon be the world’s most tanzanian-city-may-soon-be-one-of-the-worlds-most-populous/ populous INTERNAL COMMUNICATION During FY19, internal communication was maintained through TURP’s Collaboration for Development platform and committee meetings. Recognizing a gap in interaction between project leads, monthly internal meetings were introduced. Each meeting focused on a different Pillar, featuring presentations from project leads and a progress overview from TURP management. This improved team cohesion and enabled collaboration. Several presentations were also delivered during the FY to improve awareness of program initiatives within the broader communities associated with the World Bank team and program partners. These presentations, curated by the local team, captured the attention of prominent institutional figures, including the World Bank Urban Director, Sameh Wahba, and the World Bank Vice President for Africa, Hafez Ghanem, and achieved program buy- in from key ministerial officials within Tanzania. 8 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 EVENTS TURP events are essential to the sustained engagement of partners, beneficiaries, and the Notable Mentions general public and to the promotion of resilience as a critical consideration in development planning. URTZ 2018, the program’s annual conference, was the first event of the FY, kicking off program activities at the Julius Nyerere International Convention Centre. Over two days, it brought together over 300 stakeholders, students, and beneficiaries to imagine the future of urban resilience in Tanzania and featured presentations from relevant local and international initiatives. “We are twins conjoined at the heart on this issue. And so we can learn a great deal from our different approaches.”  - Charles K’onyango, National Director of Urban Development, Kenya While Day 1 of the conference gave an overview of interventions being implemented across Tanzania to improve risk identification, risk T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 82 reduction, and emergency preparedness, Day 2 During the remainder of FY19, a number of focused specifically on the subject of resilience smaller-scale events were conducted, many of for urban rivers and surrounding land. This which improved public awareness and support involved a panel of case studies from Dar es for the Msimbazi Opportunity Plan. Salaam, Mozambique, and Kenya. The Msimbazi Charrette design process was presented in detail, and honorary guests Bella Bird (World Bank “We are twins conjoined at the heart on this Country Director), Beth Arthy (Head of DfID issue. And so we can learn a great deal from Tanzania), Hon. Minister January Makamba, our different approaches.”  - Charles K’onyango, National Director of Urban Hon. Minister Selemani Jafo, and 33 Members of Development, Kenya Parliament were taken on a walk-through of the project’s initial outputs. | URTZ 2018 engaged 300+ stakeholders, students, and beneficiaries through panel discussions and technical sessions on urban resilience 8 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 Results Overview 05 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 84 Result indicators are detailed in the table below. model, which provided for hazard parameters Targets described in the indicator column are for (flood duration, depth) demonstrates significant the calendar year and, as of this report, cover the floodwater reductions with interventions proposed FY up to June 30, 2019. from the risk-planning charrette process. Hence it is considered very likely that the probabilistic Indicator A.1 refers to both the identification and model run will demonstrate a reduced AAL for the implementation of risk-mitigation measures. The Msimbazi basin under risk-mitigation measures identification of measure has been directly achieved proposed, compared to without. through the Ramani Huria community assets and flood risk-identification process, which covered Indicator B.1 has been updated to reflect the 49 wards and 243 sub-wards. The pathway to results of household surveys whereby exposure implementation of measures was expected to take to floods is widespread in Dar es Salaam; 39% of several forms: via the normal government process the population, or 2 million people, have been of local government planning (Opportunities and impacted either directly or indirectly by floods in Obstacles to Development1 ), via community-level the past. This estimate is based on self-reported small works and grants, and via the anticipated exposure to floods (including the 2018 flood) and Msimbazi Flood Risk Reduction program. As both computed by applying sample weights, assuming the community works and the larger Msimbazi selection strategy was successful in capturing program are pending government approval, there representativeness of flood risk in Dar es Salaam. has not been a direct line of TURP financing to An alternative methodology from Ramani Huria implementation of work. Indirectly, work and actions calculated that a population of 3,310,000 live within have been undertaken by several wards following the 49 wards covered by the exposure mapping, TURP planning and engagement activities, but have which itself focused on the more flood-prone areas. not been quantified to date. Hence, it is expected that a majority of these wards will be vulnerable to flooding. Indicator A.2 is expected to be assessed in August 2019 and published in the September 2019 Disaster Indicator 2.2 is expected to be on track for 20 sub- Risk Management Index Assessment Report. ward community plans by end of 2019. Currently, however, only three ward-level plans, comprising Indicator A.3 is pending the first runs of the 12 sub-ward plans, are completed. This is a result Probabilistic Risk model for Dar es Salaam, which is of a restructuring of the community disasters under procurement and as such, an average annual management committee activation process into a loss (AAL)has not yet been established using the pilot phase in 2019. Great focus placed on ward-level most recent data. Socioeconomic analysis performed committees has led to better vertical integration around the April 2019 flood event, however, which between sub-wards and wards, but led to slow roll- largely affected the Msimbazi basin communities, out of plans to additional sub-wards. modelled an estimated loss of USD $107,027,000 to USD $227,685,000. In addition, the hydraulic Indicator 3.1 concerns the Emergency Operation Center. A needs assessment and structure recommendations have been submitted to GoT for 1  https://www.participatorymethods.org/resource/training-manual-par- ticipatory-community-based-ood-opportunities-and-obstacles-development review. 8 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Results Log Frame Targets Indicate Fiscal Year to June 30, 2019 INDICATOR BASE L I N E FY18 FY 19 D ATA C OL L EC T I ON A N D R EP ORT I NG C OMM E NT / Targe t / Ta rg e t FREQUENCY DATA SOURCE RESPONSIBILITY IMPACT INDICATORS Urban areas in Tanzania are more resilient to climate risk 1.1 Number of wards 0 0/0 3 / 15 Annually Regional PO-RALG and Tracks the extent to which benefiting from Administrative ULGAs responding structural and non- or implementing Secretary to expert-led survey structural risk-reduction flood risk mitigation measures are identified in measures identified local government plans and in ward level risk implemented management plans 1.2 Improved capacity Low TBD/ Incipient TBD / Appreciable Annually Disaster risk PO-RALG and Weighted index of advances of government management ULGAs responding made in intermediate agencies to identify, index to expert-led survey outcome indicators for reduce, finance and Pillars 1, 2, and 3. Assessment cope with based on Dar es Salaam disaster risks and including measures for financial protection. 1.3 Modeled Economic TBD/NA Probabilistic Model Model Runs Probabilistic Flood World Bank AAL to be determined from losses in the runs not yet available. expected Risk model using flood risk model expected Msimbazi basin April 2019 flood costs in 2019 and TURP exposure and in 2019. 2017 baseline data reduced as a result at USD $100 million 2020. Also hazard data. is taken from Turpie et al. of structural risk / current Hydraulic contingent (2016) model and may be mitigation mesured model demonstrates on selection subject to revision once designed significant flood hazard of structural new model is calibrated. reduction from Msimbazi measures No indicator is expected for interventions implemented. collection yet. PML for 2017 exposure reduced under planned works scenario OUTCOME INDICATORS Urban local governments in Tanzania utilize improved evidence base and urban planning to strengthen resilience to climate-related hazards B.1 Number of 0 350,000* / 250,000 2 million exposed/ Annually Flood risk and World Bank Population estimate based on persons benefiting 500,000 exposure model census data, household data, from improved flood associated with dwellings resilience as a result and businesses exposed to of ICF support flood hazards and modeled to expect reduced losses as a result of ICF interventions (e.g., new/improved drains, EWSs, and/or flood shelters) (Dar es Salaam only). B.2 Extent to which 0 TBD / 2 TBD / 3 Annually Annual Review DfID Narrative report made during Investment Climate DfID Annual Review process. Facility (ICF) A score of ‘A’ was assigned intervention is likely to in November 2018. A score have a transformational for FY19 will be assigned in impact November 2019. INTERMEDIATE RESULT INDICATORS PILL AR 1 RISK IDENTIFICATION 1.1 Improved access to Not yet available 21 wards published: All 49 urban wards Annually Based on indicators A geospatial data portal will climate risk information in exposure, drainage, published: exposure, 3.1 – 3.4, 4.3, and 4.6 serve as a repository for Dar es Salaam inundation hazard /Risk drainage, inundation information at both national information published for hazard / Risk information and sub-national levels. 20 wards of Dar es Salaam published for 70 wards of with flood inundation Dar es Salaam with flood scenarios inundation scenarios T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 86 1.2 Exposure and 0 Pilot service concluded Annually Climate risk geonode PO-RALG Standardized exposure, risk assessments and under evaluation. repository hazard, and risk-monitoring applied in major Monitoring service tools will be developed cities (cumulative under discussion first as pilots and applied number) with stakeholders / across urban centers. At least 1 monitoring These services will serve service demonstrated, as a monitoring tool for zat least 1 more urban investment needs (build-up risk service under of vulnerable population in preparationdemonstrated, hazard areas), baselines for at least 1 more urban risk exposure populations, and a service under preparation support tool for development and improved land use planning. PILLAR 2 RISK REDUCTION 2.1 Cumulative 0 1522 / 100 6102 Annually Participant lists and World Bank This indicator is a targeted number of people registrations from and high-intensity ICF directly engaged training and events Indicator that tracks the in climate risk training of individuals reduction activities in understanding risk - number and per­ information, analyzing and centage of females applying risk data (WB core indicator) 2.2 Community risk 0 0/ 10 12 / 20 Annually Ward Offices and World Bank This indicator directly redution plans LGAs tracks the progress of developed using risk-reduction planning on a improved risk community level. information (cumulative number) 2.3 Government risk 0 Msimbazi Flood Model Msimbazi Flood mitigation Annually Secretariat World Bank This indicator tracks reduction activities Accepted by Stakeholders works grant pending government endorsement of TURP supported risk- reduction activities in the Msimbazi Basin. PILLAR 3 PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 3.1 Dar es Salaam 0 Detailed Trainings, Emergency Operations Annually DarMAERT Disaster This indicator tracks: Emergency Response Exercises and Drills Center Structure Management • City Emergency System program procured recommended Department Management authorities and World Bank adopting and using a City Emergency Response plan; and • Enhancing Emergency response system through Standard Operating Procedures and Emergency Operations Center Enhancing Emergency response system through Standard Operating Procedures and Emergency Operations Center RESILIENCE ACADEMY KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER ESTABLISHED 4.1 Cumulative Number 0 829 Total 1126 Total Annually Tanzanian Disaster This indicator tracks the of staff and students 363 female 567 female Universities Management number of Tanzanian (by gender) placed / 500 /750 Department and university students in fields in Urban Resilience World Bank of urban planning, GIS, Industry placement geography attaining a 10- week immersion in risk data, community engagement and risk-analysis techniques required to sustain risk information activities and useful in local governments. 4.2 Climate Risk Data and 0 In progress Geospatial Data Repository Annually Tanzanian Disaster This indicator tracks Tools Use in research / Geospatial Data Published on Resilience Universities Management availability, access, and use of repository established Academy, Software tools Department and risk information in research; for 4 in progress World Bank thus monitoring demand universities / Source Code for InaSafe for risk data from academia and Risk Model hosted for and research partnerships in Universities Tanzania on resilience. PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION 5.1 Program management, 0 Program Committee Technical Conference Annually Secretariat World Bank This indicator tracks knowledge and commu Meetings Held; Technical Held; Program Outputs reporting milestones and nications Conference scheduled Reviewed dissemination August 2018 87 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 Risks Overview 06 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 88 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND PRIORITIES Risks Overview Focus The multi-stakeholder nature of TURP has presented fewer challenges this past year, as the program STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT is better known as communication channels and AND PRIORITIES engagement has continued to roll out. However, risks of conflicting priorities remain and TURP retains an important multisectoral convening role. FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT This is evident in the case of scarce land allocation for AND PROCUREMENT competing priorities, such as in the city center where needs for urban sanitation, transport facilities, flood retention basins, and community space for ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, recreation, agriculture, and livelihoods need to AND SECURITY be carefully balanced. The forthcoming year may present additional challenges arising from it being an election year, putting added pressure on government counterparts. 8 9 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 A recurring challenge has been the significant flood The challenge of sequencing expenditures in the impacts, with each year seeing several significant first three months of the calendar year, which had flood events. Although no flood emergency was been flagged in past TURP reports, is expected to declared in 2019, three major floods occurred improve this year. Nevertheless, pre-flood season in March, April, and May. The results of the can raise unforeseen needs relating to preparedness, geomorphology and erosion assessment conclude and carefully planning for contingency adjustments that these flood events will increase in frequency will be required in order to respond to shocks. and severity under a business-as-usual scenario. If major dredging work, associated riverbank ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, stabilization, sediment management, and water AND SECURITY retention interventions do not begin before the next rainy season, then Dar es Salaam can expect to deal TURP has worked with the GoT and key implementing with shocks from repeated flood events. agencies to highlight relevant environmental and social concerns and ensure that, where applicable, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT World Bank safeguard policies are adhered to. AND PROCUREMENT The year ahead is expected to focus on a few specific The pound sterling has fallen further against the U.S. environmental concerns: the health of the Dar es dollar in 2019, which will impact the resources for Salaam mangrove and river estuary environment, TURP. The year ahead foresees ongoing uncertainty as well as the soil toxicology and pollution study. and potential volatility in the UK pound and hence Results from these assessments may pose a need there will be a need to revise TURP commitment to redesign interventions or develop additional projections and coordinate closely with UKaid on mitigation measures. budget transfers. T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 90 9 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 Looking Forward 07 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 92 WORKPLAN OVERVIEW However, significant work is expected on a just-in- time basis as need arises. One example anticipated The projection for the World Bank-executed is the need to study the ecology impacts to the activities in FY20 is similar to FY19 overall. A mangrove ecosystem and assess planning and change in emphasis, however, is expected within land management options. While another World the Pillars. Cleanup event is expected in September 2019, a similar exercise to last year is not expected, as For Pillar 1, the majority of work will focus on waste management support is mainstreamed as the Probabilistic Risk Model, which is expanded far as possible. in scope to also address the secondary city of Stonetown in Zanzibar. Other Pillar 1 activities are Pillar 3 activities can be expected to increase scaling down in Dar es Salaam or moving towards as more extensive training, exercises, drills, and additional cities. It was originally anticipated that early warning activities are rolled out. It is also the GoT-executed programs would be effective at important to note the need for contingency in this stage to pick up on ongoing risk monitoring dealing with potentially severe flood events or and surveying campaigns, and hence within the other shocks that may arise, in which case support Pillar there is some uncertainty on the timing to damage assessment and recovery may also of handover activities and uptake from the increase significantly. GoT programs. TURP will endeavor to maintain The RA will also see more progress over the continuity of urban monitoring networks and coming FY as activities are commenced, more surveys, including sediment volumetric surveys, partners and universities are engaged, and local building stock updates, and river flow monitoring, labs are capacitated. and this may involve extending the World Bank- executed activities until the GoT programs are in Finally, as TURP is transitioning through its mid- place. point, administration of the program is expected to move from peak procurement into peak delivery The year ahead is also expected to conclude mode, with many activities entering an evaluation the major planning processes spearheaded by and phase-out while some new engagements are the Msimbazi Design Charrette and focus more developed. Hence, staffing can be expected to see on local and municipal government processes. an increase during the FY for this peak. 9 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Workflow Targets Indicate Fiscal Year to June 30, 2019 TOTAL $3,822,000 $3,470,000 FY19 FY20 Disbursement Disbursement PA Program Management $50,000 $50,000 TA Program Coordination & Quality Assurance $50,000 $25,000 Knowledge Sharing $0 $25,000 Pillar 1 Risk Identification $1,148,000 $1,560,000 Historical Events Inventory $0 $125,000 Disaster Risk Management Index & Updates $185,000 $100,000 Elevation Model and Exposure Mapping $108,000 $0 Ramani Huria (Community Mapping) additional cities $58,000 $55,000 Satellite Data Mapping additional Cities $268,000 $250,000 Erosion and Sedimentation Study $45,000 $125,000 Hydrological Study & Monitoring $85,000 $125,000 Spatial Data Management & Hosting $198,000 $125,000 Dar es Salaam Probabilistic Flood Risk Evaluation $38,000 $655,000 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction $1,034,000 $595,000 Risk Mitigation Planning $253,000 $275,000 Msimbazi Flood Model & Infrastructure Diagnostic $0 $0 Just In Time Technical Assistance $150,000 $125,000 Land Use Planning and Resettlement Framework $20,000 $0 Municipal DRM Plans $28,000 $150,000 Drains Maintenance & Management dashboard $55,000 $0 Msimbazi Design Charrette and Special Planning Area $406,000 $0 Msimbazi charrette and area plan $250,000 $0 Msimbazi River Basin management Plan $156,000 $0 Community Level Risk Reduction $375,000 $320,000 Participatory climate risk plans, training, behavior change $275,000 $320,000 World Clean Up Day $100,000 $0 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 94 Pillar 3 Disaster Preparedness &Emergency Management $629,000 $745,000 Municipal Contingency Plans $20,000 $125,000 Community Response Plans $125,000 $100,000 Training, Exercises and Drills $125,000 $125,000 Damage Assessment Capacity building $105,000 $65,000 Early Warning and Forecast $250,000 $285,000 Local Early Warning and Early Action Tool $100,000 $125,000 Forecast and Flood Advisories $150,000 $160,000 Resilience Academy $515,000 $600,000 Curricula & Courses for Risk Information $220,000 $190,000 Support to Placement in Industry Program $138,000 $140,000 Support to Master's Students & Exchanges $30,000 $45,000 University Resilience Labs & Equipment $0 $125,000 Short Courses and Capacity Building $125,000 $100,000 Secretariat $446,000 $425,000 International conference series $160,000 $95000 Steering committee meetings $5,000 $5000 Communications, Websites, and Media $70,000 $38,000 M&E Baseline Data Collection $12,000 $12,000 Publications (update resilience report/editing/printing) $32,000 $12,000 Annual Review $12,000 $12,000 Staffing $155,000 $250,000 9 5 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 01. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 05. RESULTS OVERVIEW 83 02. BY THE NUMBERS 7 06. RISKS OVERVIEW 85 03. ABOUT TURP 11 07. LOOKING FORWARD 91 04. ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17 08. FINANCIALS 95 Finacials 08 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 96 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW Total disbursements to date from the TF amount 15% to USD $8,384,000. In FY19, a total of USD 35% $3,834,000 was disbursed, with USD $1,131,000 remaining available. 19% Outstanding commitments of USD $2,118,000 will be carried over into the next fiscal year. 31% PILLAR 1 PILLAR 2 PILLAR 3 RESILIENCE ACADEMY | Distribution of TURP Project Pillar Funds in Fiscal Year 2019 9 7 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Financial Overview Indicate Fiscal Year to June 30, 2019 REPORTING PERIOD ENDED JUNE 30, 2019 (USD) Total Funds Received from DfID as of June 30 2019 $11,638,000 Disbursements FY19 $3,822,000 Total TF Disbursements $8,384,000 Outstanding Contract Commitments $2,118,000 Cash Balance at the End of Fiscal Year 2018 $1,136,000 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 98 Disbursements Indicate Fiscal Year to June 30, 2019 TOTAL BUDGET % DISBURSED BETF ACTIVITY FY 19 ALLOCATED COMMITTED AVAILABLE DISBURSED + COMMITTED (USD) Pillar 1 Risk Identification TF0A3559 Risk Evaluation and Information Management $4,330,000 $1,148,000 $860,000 $810,000 81% TF0A4139 Urban Exposure Mapping Data Services $150,000 $0 $0 $0 100% TOTAL PILLAR 1 $4,480,000 $1,148,000 $860,000 $810,000 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction TF0A4691 Risk Mitigation Planning $1,210,000 $628,000 $217,979 $0 100% TF0A3571 Msimbazi River Revitalization $660,000 $406,000 $0 $0 100% TF0A4575 Urbanization Review - Resilience Planning $57,848 $0 $0 $0 100% TF0A5676 SWIFT Surveys on Poverty and Floods $190,000 $12,000 $0 $0 100% TOTAL PILLAR 2 $1,927,848 $1,034,000 $133,000 $0 Pillar 3 Emergency Preparedness Emergency Planning 96% TF0A3828 and Response $1,960,000 $629,000 $563,000 $80,000 TOTAL PILLAR 3 $1,960,000 $629,000 $563,000 $80,000 Resilience Academy TF0A4238 Urban Resilience Academy $1,620,000 $515,000 $537,000 $164,000 90% TOTAL RESILIENCE ACADEMY $1,620,000 $515,000 $537,000 $164,000 Program Administration TF0A3742 Technical Review and Design $330,000 $50,000 $0 $2,000 99% TF0A2973 Secretariat and Conferences $1,130,000 $446,000 $25,000 $75,000 93% TOTAL ADMINISTRATION $1,460,000 $496,000 $25,000 $77,000 OVERALL TOTAL ACTIVITIES $11,637,848 $3,822,000 $2,118,000 $1,131,000 90% 99 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Delivery Chain Indicates Fiscal Year to June 30, 2019 DfID TURP TRUSTEE ACCOUNT PILLAR 1: PILLAR 2: RISK INFORMATION RISK REDUCTION URBAN EXPOSURE RISK EVALUATION URBANIZATION MSIMBAZI RIVER RISK MITIGATION SWIFT SURVEYS ON MAPPING DATA SERVICES AND INFO MGMT REVIEW REVITALIZATION PLANNING POVERTY AND FLOODS $99, 460 $2, 003, 866 $18,309 $ 596,94 4 $753,571 $112,590 International International International International International International Consultants Consultants consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $10,400 $374,757 $18,309 $30,4 42 $157,164 $18,740 Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $11,413 $172,895 $31,295 $120,597 $7,000 Planet Labs Inc. Deltares ECORYS Nederland BV UDA Danismanlik COWI Tanzania Ltd $60,000 $102,405 $399,9W05 $320,720 Musavirlik LTD. $86,850 Dares Technology S.L. OBSCOM Deltares Deltares $17,647 $15,000 $98,387 $139,529 Ordnance Survey Bremen Overseas Research International and Development Solid Green Consulting $34,992 $5,560 $15,522 Delft University DASUDA NETICS BV of Technology $21,393 $10,000 $238,710 Humanitarian OpenStreetmap Team $541,515 Jeremy Benn Associates Ltd. $101,878 Drone Adventures CDR International BV $9,000 $99,984 WeRobotics Trans-African $6,000 Hydromet Observatory $8,000 Earthquakes Planet Labs Inc. & Megacities Initiative $40,000 $237,730 OpenMap Spatial Collective Ltd Development Tanzania $19,500 $1,500 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 100 PILLAR 3: EMERGENCY RESILIENCE SECRETARIAT PREPAREDNESS ACADEMY EMERGENCY PLANNING RESILIENCE SECRETARIAT TECHNINCAL REVIEWS AND RESPONSE ACADEMY AND CONFERENCES AND DESIGN $1,158,570 $311, 619 $81,432 $ 1,085,370 International International International International Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $93,308 $126,4 41 $247,171 $70,627 Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $202,767 $59,498 $6,577 $4,305 Earthquakes & ITC Plane Site LLC WeRobotics Megacities Initiative $287,881 $57,870 $6,500 $391,055 Deltares Deltares $398,240 $102,404 WeRobotics $6,500 Delft University of Technology $79,904 Humanitarian OpenStreetmap Team $95,942 Turku University $400,000 10 1 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019 T URP ANNUAL REPORT 20 19 102 10 3 TURP ANNUAL REPORT 2019