ROMANIA Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on Consolidating the Strategic Management Function of the General Secretariat of the Government of Romania (P170487) Output 3 - Support for the Establishment of the Policy Lab and capacity development of Lab staff a.Report on piloting the operationalization of Policy Lab-specific tools and methods in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic Scenarios and Action Plan for Reopening Schools in September 2020 November 2020 DISCLAIMER This report is a product of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretation, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This report does not necessarily represent the position of the European Union or the Romanian Government. COPYRIGHT STATEMENT The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable laws. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with the complete information to either: (i) General Secretariat of the Government (1 Victoriei Square, Bucharest, Romania); or (ii) the World Bank Group Romania (Vasile Lascăr Street, No. 31, Et. 6, Sector 2, Bucharest, Romania). This report has been delivered in November 2020, under the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on Consolidating the Strategic Management Function of the General Secretariat of the Government of Romania (GSG), signed between the GSG and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development on December 9, 2019. It corresponds to Output 3a – Support for the Establishment of the Policy Lab and capacity development of Lab staff under the above-mentioned agreement. This document has been delivered under the provisions of the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on Consolidating strategic management function at the General Secretariat of the Government and has been prepared under the guidance and supervision of Alberto Leyton (Lead Public Sector Specialist, Governance Global Practice, Europe and Central Asia) and under the coordination of Andrea Sitarova (Senior Public Sector Management Expert, Governance Global Practice, Europe and Central Asia), and with the core team members Alina Sava (Education Specialist), Ioana Ciucanu (Education Expert), Leo Pagnac (Senior Scenario Planning Expert) and Thierry Senechal (Senior Scenario Planning Expert), with valuable support from Razvan Voinescu (Public Sector Management Expert). The ideas for this document were generated through scenario planning workshops, and co-created with the expert panel consisting of Valentin Popescu (Head of Public Policy Unit, Ministry of Education and Research), Serban Cerkez and Daniel Rucareanu (experts – Directorate for Policy Coordination and Priorities, General Secretariat of the Government), Ovidiu Tripsa (General School Inspector, School Inspectorate Brasov), Daniela Florescu (School Inspector for Pre-school Education, School Inspectorate Brasov), Gabriela Necula (School Inspector for Pre-school Education, School Inspectorate Brasov), Silviana Cioceanu (School Inspector for Educational Projects, School Inspectorate Brasov), Costel Mihai (Deputy Mayor, City Hall Brasov), Carmen Lica (Executive Director, Step by Step Center), Antonia Pup (President, National Student Council), Corina Atanasiu (President, Federation of Parents), Daniel Bojte (ICT and infrastructure expert), Radu Jugureanu (eLearning expert1, teacher), Alexandra Maria Cucu (Director, National Center for evaluation and promotion of health), Alina Sava (Education Specialist, World Bank) and Ioana Ciucanu (Education Expert, World Bank). The team is thankful for the creativity and dedication of the members of the expert panel. Additionally, the World Bank team contributed with the ideas for the Action Plan for reopening schools and facilitated the whole process through the scenario planning methodology. The team would also to like to express its gratitude for the excellent cooperation and guidance provided by the team of the General Secretariat of the Government, in particular to Dragos Negoita (Director, Directorate for Policy Coordination and Priorities), and his team, mainly Serban Cerkez, Roxana Georgescu, Elena Constantin, and Daniela Nicolaescu and the team of the Ministry of Education and Research led by Valentin Popescu. This document also benefited from the overall guidance and supervision of Roby Senderowitsch (Practice Manager, Governance Global Practice, Europe and Central Asia) and Tatiana Proskuryakova (Country Manager, Romania and Hungary), and was supported by Anastasia Gadja (Team Assistant). 1 Team leader of the technical support team for the World Bank ROSE project EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product GSG General Secretariat of the Government of Romania ICT Information and Communications Technology MER Ministry of Education and Research MH Ministry of Health NIPH National Institute of Public Health PISA Program for International Student Assessment PPP Purchasing power parity SIIIR Integrated Information System of Education in Romania 5 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 8 1. ASSIGNMENT..................................................................................................................................... 12 2. CHALLENGES OF THE ROMANIAN EDUCATION SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC............................................................................................................................................. 14 3.SCENARIO PLANNING FOR REOPENING SCHOOLS............................................................................. 18 Scenario planning methodology ....................................................................................................... 18 Application of the methodology to develop scenarios for reopening schools in Romania .............. 21 Step 1: Define the scope ............................................................................................................... 21 Step 2: Identify the trends ............................................................................................................ 21 Step 3: Narrow down to key uncertainties ................................................................................... 23 Step 4: Develop the scenarios....................................................................................................... 24 Step 5: Identify the strategic options............................................................................................ 25 4.SCENARIOS (September 2020) ........................................................................................................... 26 Covid-19 – schools without children (scenario 1) ............................................................................. 26 Romania is learning! (Scenario 2) ..................................................................................................... 29 5.PLAN FOR REOPENING SCHOOLS ....................................................................................................... 31 Guiding principles for reopening schools ......................................................................................... 32 Strategic options ............................................................................................................................... 33 Strategic option 1: In-person ........................................................................................................ 34 Strategic option 2: Hybrid ............................................................................................................. 35 Strategic option 3: Online ............................................................................................................. 36 Action Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 38 Simulation of the implementation of the Action Plan ...................................................................... 43 6.ADDED VALUE OF THE SCENARIO PLANNING INITIATIVE .................................................................. 49 7.NEXT STEPS ........................................................................................................................................ 52 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................................... 54 Annex 1: Members of the expert panel ............................................................................................ 54 Annex 2: International examples of the use of scenario planning in the public sector ................... 55 Annex 3: How other countries reopened schools in 2020................................................................ 57 Annex 4: Insights on how to operationalize the hybrid learning model........................................... 58 Annex 5: UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, World Food Program and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Framework for reopening schools in 2020 ....................................................................... 59 Annex 6: Epidemiological triggers for keeping the schools open or closed ..................................... 60 Annex 7. Slides from scenario planning workshops ......................................................................... 61 Figure 1: How overcrowded are the education units at national and county level ............................. 15 Figure 2: Estimated impact on PISA scores following Covid-19 ............................................................ 17 Figure 3: Number of children in Romania out of school after the financial crisis of 2009 ................... 17 Figure 4: Covid-19 impact on education, human capital accumulation, inequality and stability......... 18 Figure 5: Traditional forecasting vs. scenario planning ........................................................................ 19 Figure 6: Steps of the scenario planning methodology ........................................................................ 21 Figure 7: Results of the vote of the expert panel on the most uncertain and impactful trends .......... 24 Figure 8: Scenario matrix ...................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 9: Key takeaways from the expert panel expectations.............................................................. 26 Figure 10: Building blocks of a plan for reopening schools based on scenarios ................................... 32 Figure 11: Checklist for standards of readiness .................................................................................... 34 Figure 12: Approval process for opening schools ................................................................................. 44 Figure 13: Options for principals of schools which do not meet the sanitary standards ..................... 45 Figure 14: Options for principals of schools with insufficient staff ...................................................... 46 Figure 15: Options for principals of schools which do not meet the standards for physical distancing .............................................................................................................................................................. 46 Figure 16: Options for principals of schools which do not meet the standards for reopening or the epidemiological situation does not allow for it .................................................................................... 47 Figure 17: Expected outcomes and impacts of the World Bank support to the GSG in strengthening its strategic management role .............................................................................................................. 49 Figure 18: Framework for generating options for ministry guidelines on school reopening ............... 50 Box 1: Important elements in reopening schools ................................................................................. 32 Box 2: Measures for school attendance of various at-risk groups of students and staff ..................... 37 Box 3: Inputs to mid-term plan for modernization of the education system and infrastructure ........ 43 Table 1: Action Plan for reopening schools in the three options for learning approach...................... 39 Table 2: How prepared are the schools in Brasov to meet the social distancing standards ................ 48 7 Executive summary 1. The General Secretariat of the Government of Romania (GSG), with advisory assistance from the World Bank, offered support to the Ministry of Education and Research (MER) to build scenarios on the impact of Covid-19 on the education sector. Specifically, the assignment was to use the innovative tool – scenario planning analysis – to provide inputs and insights to the decision-making at the MER on the plan how to reopen schools safely in September 2020, in the context of the pandemic. The World Bank was already supporting the GSG in strengthening its strategic management function and providing support to line ministries to build better-evidenced strategies and policies, through an EU-financed advisory project (“The consolidation of the strategic management functions of the GSG – SIPOCA 622”)2. Part of this support was also to help the GSG establish a Policy Lab. Scenario planning was one of the methods used by the Lab. 2. Planning for multiple scenarios of how the future may play out around the school reopening seemed the right fit for the challenge that the MER was facing. At the start of the initiative, in July 2020, the Covid-19 cases started to rise again in Romania and the MER was under pressure from parents, local administrations and students themselves to present a clear plan. Scenario planning is typically used by governments, international organizations, and private corporations while planning in the context of uncertainty. Its objective is to use a formalized process to envision a set of two to five plausible futures and think about the best ways how to prepare for them. The result of this process typically is the main plan of no-regret moves3 across scenarios and contingency plans that can get activated if a certain future starts to materialize. Using scenario planning with sufficient anticipation to get better prepared was the right approach for the MER, rather than waiting for events to unfold and then trying to prepare measures in the middle of a crisis should it arise. 3. In order to provide evidence-based input into to decision-making at the MER, the GSG mobilized a multidisciplinary expert panel across the domains related to school reopening. This was an innovation in the Romanian policy-making context. The 14 experts and “disruptive thinkers” were selected from central authorities for education and health, local administration, school inspectorates, school managers, ICT experts, teachers, parents and students themselves, and included also World Bank scenario planners and education experts. The task was threefold: (i) identify the plausible scenarios of how the future may play out and plan for them; (ii) give voice to the stakeholders to create better understanding of the issues on the ground and what the government response should take into account; and (ii) provide tools to the MER to engage with stakeholders in a new way, create a dialogue, and partner on 2 The World Bank Reimbursable Advisory Services project (Consolidating the Strategic Management Function of the General Secretariat of the Government of Romania) is financed through the EU’s Administrative Capacity Operational Program, SIPOCA 622. 3 No-regret moves in the context of multiple scenarios are options that can bring good results in any of them or not incur losses. 8 shaping and informing policy solutions to achieve better results on the ground in terms of ensuring safe, inclusive and continuous learning for children during the pandemic. 4. The evidence from reopening schools around the world suggested that there is not a sole right set of answers or solutions; countries make choices based on the specific situation of their education system and infrastructure. In the case of Romania, challenges for reopening schools included, among others, possible difficulties to put in place (i) physical distancing measures when 30% of schools already operate in two to three shifts and are overcrowded; (ii) frequent hand washing and cleaning when 33% of schools do not have sanitation facilities, one in five schools does not have adequate water source, and 35% do not have indoor toilets. Similarly, in case a switch to online learning were needed, students that would lose out the most would be the vulnerable ones, as the internet connectivity is lower in poor areas especially in rural localities. Emerging evidence from when schools were closed during the first wave of the pandemic shows that around 900,000 children do not have access to a proper device for online learning and that one out of four teachers is ICT illiterate. Within this context, no possible alternative would be optimal and careful analysis of the trade-offs would be needed when making decisions on when and how to reopen schools after Summer. 5. The scenario planning methodology was deemed the most appropriate to support the decision-making process in this case, considering the existing level of uncertainty and the need to deploy combined alternatives at each possible situation. The scenario planning methodology typically includes five steps. First, the teams define the scope of the problem to address, in this case, What would the start of the academic year look like for early, primary and secondary students in urban and rural areas of Romania. Second, a multi- disciplinary team identifies the relevant possible trends within the proposed scope. In this case the expert panel identified 27 trends across the domains of education, healthcare, economy, social and environmental, technology, and political and security that are likely to positively or negatively impact the reopening of schools in September. Third, collective analysis should lead to narrowing down to most uncertain but relevant trends. For the case of Romania, the expert panel voted on two key uncertainties: What would the second wave of Covid-19 look like across Romania, and whether the authorities would get the schools ready for reopening. According to the experts, these were the two most important, yet the most uncertain trends, that were going to shape how the September reopening would turn out. With the alternatives of these two uncertainties (i.e. schools ready vs. not ready; Covid-19 present vs. strong second wave leading to lockdowns), the teams moved to steps three and four, where the experts created a matrix of possible scenarios, and collectively imagined narratives of how the future may unfold. 9 6. “Covid-39 – schools without children” and “Romania is learning!” were the two extreme narratives to describe the main scenarios that thinkers on the expert panel collectively created. The first scenario describes a grim situation where Covid-19 is present (possibly leading to lockdowns) and schools are not ready for reopening. This means that they are forced to receive children in overcrowded spaces without necessary sanitary safeguards, which can increase risks leading to school closures. Or, if mandatory standards are imposed, extra spaces are not available and the temporary mobile units were not purchased, schools either need to switch to hybrid mode for part of the students, or go fully online, in case they cannot remain open. Not ready in this context also means that some children do not have access to a computer to follow the online lessons and some teachers do not know how to use the online platforms to teach the lessons or are reluctant to. A number of children is clearly left behind in this scenario, increasing their learning losses or possibly dropping out. In the narrative for the second scenario, Romania is learning!, Covid-19 is present too, but the schools got ready. This means that they have adequate extra space allowing for social distancing, as well as extra staff; they are sufficiently stocked and have routines for sanitary safeguards; but also, should the situation worsen and the school, locality, or region go to lockdown, the schools are ready to provide the hybrid or online classes. This means that children have access to a laptop connected to the internet, the vulnerable ones have sufficient support for either digital or in-person learning, and teachers are trained to teach online, if needed. The two extreme narratives are meant to guide decisions and actions in the right way. None of the scenarios is likely to happen to their full extent but rather a combination of such situations would be likely proving true depending on how effectively, or not, school get prepared for what is coming. 7. The scenario where the schools are ready to reopen set the basis for the discussion on what the authorities need to do to get ready, taking into account the differing baseline situation of schools. This is the final, fifth step of the scenario planning process, where the scenarios are used to generate policy options and test them in different possible futures. The idea is to see what would be the right government response to secure good results in a given scenario, if it were to materialize; or what should the government do in order to avoid a certain future. With this in mind, the expert panel agreed on three strategic options – in-person, hybrid and online learning approach - for how the government could respond, based on the epidemiological triggers and the readiness of schools to reopen. For each of the possible government responses, the expert panel defined a checklist of basic standards of what it means to get ready for them. The panel recommended that only the schools that meet the standards for in-person learning reopen in September 2020. 10 8. The proposed action plan for reopening schools includes the immediate steps that need to be taken ahead of reopening schools and inputs to a mid-term plan for the education system and infrastructure modernization in the recovery phase from Covid-19 impacts. The actions were crowdsourced from the expert panel during the scenario planning workshops, by taking each of the standards and asking what the authorities need to do in order to help schools meet them. Recognizing the differing situation of the schools (according to the possible scenarios), the plan is presented as a menu of options that school principals can tap into in order to meet the standards. In addition to the most immediate steps for reopening schools safely, there are a number of measures to address the shortcomings mainly in sanitary and digital readiness of schools that should be taken in the medium-term. For example, the plan recognizes that while it seems possible to purchase laptops for the vulnerable groups of children and train teachers in digital skills for online teaching in the next two months; the upgrades of the ICT infrastructure or of the sanitary structures will take more time. 9. Inputs developed under this activity were delivered to MER authorities and used to inform decision at the Government level. Ultimate decisions for the reopening of schools were adopted at senior political levels in Government. Most of the recommendations from the scenario planning exercise were taken onboard when designing and issuing the relevant government decisions on the matter. Other critical aspects including resource allocation decisions and political timeframes were incorporated at that level. The scenario planning exercise was less explicit or even silent on these aspects as the focus was mostly on delivering recommendations to create appropriate conditions at the school level. Moving forward a more comprehensive approach can be considered when applying this methodology depending on the conditions, the level of engagement and the definition of the scope at the outset of the exercise. 10. This scenario planning initiative adds value not only by providing specific advisory inputs for the decision-making on reopening schools, but also by building capacities, testing of the experimental methods and inspiring new ways of working in the public administration. These are the different levels at which the World Bank support to GSG in strengthening its strategic management role aims to focus. Through the scenario planning workshops, the GSG and MER teams learned how to build scenarios based on evidence and through a formalized process. By experimenting and adopting a new role, the GSG used its convening power to gather stakeholders across different public institutions and stakeholder groups and mediated the process of producing evidence for MER’s decision-making. As the first of the Policy Lab’s experiments, the scenario planning for reopening schools provided a valuable learning opportunity on how to better design innovative projects in the Romanian public administration. 11. This collective research will feed into the decision-making at the MER on how to reopen schools safely. Its value is in the coordinated position of the experts across the delivery chain, including the beneficiaries, which has added to the level of detail and nuances in order not to leave anyone behind, and to better tailor the solutions to the needs of the teachers, students and parents. The GSG Policy Lab and the World Bank team will explore how to support 11 implementation of the ideas that came out of the scenario planning workshops, possibly also with other Policy Lab methods. 1. ASSIGNMENT In this chapter, we introduce the context of the assignment, which was to use the innovative tool - scenario planning analysis – to provide evidence-based inputs to decision-making at the MER on how to safely reopen schools in September 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. We also discuss why scenario planning was the right fit for the challenge that MER was facing; and what the objectives of the initiative were. 12. The World Bank is providing advisory to the GSG on how to consolidate its strategic management function and support ministries in building better-evidenced strategies and policies.4 The assistance aims to achieve these advisory objectives through the following five components of activities: I. Component 1 – Support to the establishment and operationalization of the Policy Lab; II. Component 2 – Support to the diagnostic of ministerial capacities in strategic change management; III. Component 3 – Support to GSG’s classification of ministries into three categories based on strategic management capacities and development of proposed intervention roadmaps; IV. Component 4 – Technical assistance to the GSG in offering customized support to three pilot ministries in elaborating strategic documents; and V. Component 5 – Training of the Policy Lab team and selected GSG and line ministry staff. 13. This report corresponds to output 3a and is developed in the framework of Component 1 and Component 5 as well. Through these components the Bank is supporting the GSG in its setting up a Policy Lab within the GSG, and providing recommendations for the Lab’s conceptual model, its operationalization, methods and tools. Scenario planning is one of the methods used by the Policy Lab. 14. In this context, the GSG, with help of the World Bank through the RAS, offered support to the MER to build scenarios for the Covid-19 impacts on the education sector and provide inputs to a plan for reopening schools. At the time of the start of the scenario planning initiative, in July 2020, Covid-19 cases in Romania were on a sharp rise, with the daily numbers of cases running at double of the figures at the peak of the March-April 2020 lockdown. The MER was under pressure from parents, local administrations or students themselves to present a clear plan. The World Bank support to this urgent need was thus rapid and it was mobilized and delivered in a month and a half. 4 The assistance is provided through the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on Consolidating the Strategic Management Function of the GSG of Romania. 12 15. Planning for multiple scenarios in order to get better prepared with a more robust plan seemed the right fit to the big uncertainties that the MER was facing around school reopening. Scenario planning is typically used by governments, international organizations, and private corporations when faced with such big uncertainties in terms of how the future may play out. Its objective is to use a formal evidence-based method to envision a set of plausible futures and think about the best ways how to prepare for them. The result of these efforts typically is a main plan of no-regret moves across scenarios and contingency plans that can get activated if a certain future starts to materialize. With help of scenario planning, the MER was thus to get better prepared, in the volatile, uncertain and fast changing context of the pandemic. 16. The three main objectives of the GSG-MER-World Bank scenario planning initiative for reopening schools, under this RAS were to: I. Provide inputs to decision-making at the MER on how to reopen schools safely in the context of high uncertainty, by being able to identify the possible scenarios of how the future may play out and plan for them; II. Improve the quality of the ministerial guidelines for reopening by engaging a multidisciplinary panel of experts across different domains related to school reopening, including the insights from the frontline, i.e. the teachers, parents and students themselves; and III. Provide tools (scenario planning methodology) to the MER to engage with the stakeholders across the delivery chain in order to create a policy response more likely to provide better results on the ground and train the MER and GSG on how to run such initiatives in the future.5 17. GSG’s mobilization of the collective research into decision-making through a multidisciplinary scenario planning panel was an innovation in the Romanian policy-making context. The GSG, together with MER and with support of the World Bank, put together a panel of stakeholders involved in the design and delivery of the plan for reopening schools, including those impacted by it. The panel included 14 representatives of central education and health institutions, local administration, school inspectorates, ICT experts, school managers, teachers, parents and students. The idea for using this kind of an expert panel was to create better collective understanding of (i) the real issues that needed to be solved, (ii) the kinds of responses that would be needed, taking into account the different needs of the schools, and allow for (iii) fine-tuning of the solutions to ensure no one is left behind. Providing this kind of input to the MER decision-making aimed to be prepared with a better quality plan, likely to achieve better results on the ground. This is the core of the GSG’s Policy Lab approach and these kinds of initiatives aim to inspire new thinking in the Romanian public administration on the value of the evidence-based co-creation methods in decision-making. 5 In parallel, the GSG and MER teams benefited from (i) pre-training on the scenario planning methodology, applied on the topic of the school reopening, which was de facto a rehearsal of the whole exercise prior to its official launch with the expert panel; (ii) a theoretical online course on how to run a scenario planning exercise, generate and test policy options, in which the teams got certified after passing the test. Additionally, the GSG and World Bank teams (iii) recorded the whole initiative in an experiment journal, which together with the online course will be offered to other ministries to help build their capacities and provide practical guidance in how to run the scenario planning as inputs to their strategies, policies or ministerial decisions, as needed. 13 18. As a result, the report describes the scenario planning method and how it was applied for reopening schools in Romania, the actual scenarios, and a plan for reopening schools. The document is organized as follows. After the introduction to the assignment in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 presents the research into the issues of the Romanian education service delivery and school infrastructure to understand the scale of the challenge, including the specific obstacles encountered during the spring wave of the pandemic, when schools were closed and strived to provide schooling fully remotely. This evidence feeds into the next chapter, to start the discussion on the drivers of change going forward, to explore the uncertainties and possible futures. As such, Chapter 3 presents the scenario planning methodology and illustrates the step by step process applied to build the scenarios and generate the policy options in the expert panel sessions. Chapter 4 presents the two main scenarios identified by the panel, by using story-telling to visualize how the future may look like in each of them. Chapter 5 is then the main product of the process. Stimulated by the discussion around the possible ways that September 2020 may look like, the chapter explores the possible government responses that the MER should activate if a certain future starts to materialize. Crowdsourced from the panel, the plan includes the core principles for action (how to reopening schools safely), the strategic options accompanied by standards of readiness to reopen schools, and a list of immediate steps in the run to up September reopening in order to be able to meet the standards. It includes other measures aiming to strengthen and modernize both the education service delivery as well as the school infrastructure, in face of disruptions like Covid-19, but also the reform efforts during the recovery phase. This chapter includes also two simulations of how the action plan could be applied on the ground. The report’s Chapter 6 concludes with recommendations for next steps. 2. CHALLENGES OF THE ROMANIAN EDUCATION SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC In this chapter, we aim to understand the scale of the challenge – reopening schools during the Covid-19 pandemic, in the context of specific issues of the Romanian education system and the school infrastructure. We briefly set out the problems, causes and interdependencies, and possible impacts. We also consider the emerging evidence on the issues encountered during the first wave of the pandemic when the schools were closed and teachers strived to deliver the lessons remotely. These will form the basis for the policy choices that the authorities will take in the different scenarios that will be explored in the next chapter. 19. What we learnt from the policy responses to ensure the continuation of the schooling during the first wave of the pandemic is that there is not one right set of answers. Countries make trade-offs and policy choices based on their specific country situations. The countries around the world are at different points of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic impacts, capacities of the healthcare systems, and also at different points of reopening schools. In forming the specific education policy response to reopening schools, what the governments tend to take into account is: (i) the safeguarding readiness of schools (extra space capacity to allow for physical distancing and the staff reserves); (ii) health and sanitary situation of schools; and (iii) readiness to provide the learning online, both in terms of the ICT infrastructure and connectivity, as well as the digital skills of both the teachers and students. Taking into account 14 the following characteristics of the Romanian education infrastructure will be particularly important for formulating adequate policy responses to reopening schools during the pandemic safely and ensuring continued quality education. Overcrowded schools 20. 30% of schools in Romania operate in two or three shifts. Overcrowding is an issue especially in urban areas and at the pre-school and primary level. According the MER’s Integrated Information System of Education in Romania (SIIIR, 2017), 30% of schools are overcrowded, and operate in two or three shifts (Figure 1, right quadrant). 6 Most overcrowded education units are in Bucharest (152), followed by Brașov (45), Cluj (43), and Constanța (40) (Figure 1, left quadrant). In all these counties, over 80% of the overcrowded units are kindergartens where the lack of spaces and places is acute. Clearly, implementing physical distancing at the already stretched schools would be a challenge. Moreover, if standards for minimum distance between the students, and students are teachers are set out, additional new spaces (learning containers) or alternative spaces identified at the locality will be needed to house half of the enrolled children and students, according to the World Bank estimates. Figure 1: How overcrowded are the education units at national and county level PS-preschool HS- high-schools P-LS- primary and lower secondary Source: World Bank calculations based on SIIIR data, the school year 2019-2020. 6 The degree of overcrowding is calculated based on the maximum number of students allowed in a classroom. These numbers are established by the National Education Law no. 1/2011 and vary by the level of education per class as follows: 20 children at the pre-school level, 25 pupils at the primary level, 30 students at the middle school and high school level. 15 Insufficient access to water and sanitation at schools 21. 33% of schools do not have sanitation facilities, one in five schools do not have adequate water source, and 35% do not have indoor toilets.7 The education infrastructure is often outdated, less than 28% of Romanian school buildings have been renovated, according to SIIIR. The failure to provide adequate utilities at schools is more prevalent at rural areas. This poses a challenge for ensuring the hygienic and sanitary safeguards, e.g. frequent handwashing and proper daily cleaning, when the schools reopen. Access for vulnerable groups and poor teacher digital skills are the main obstacles to online learning 22. Around 900,000 children do not have access to a proper learning device8 for online learning and one out of four teachers are ICT illiterate. These are the estimates of the MER based on the data collected from schools during the first wave of the pandemic. Romania has good high- speed internet coverage, and over three quarters of households have access to internet at home, however only around 70% in the areas with the higher share of the poor and rural localities, e.g. North-East (70.6%) and South-Muntenia (70.9%) regions.9 Poor digital skills of the teachers are another significant obstacle to being able to deliver classes remotely when the school needs to switch to online learning. Also, many of the children and their parents, predominantly from the vulnerable groups, are not sufficiently literate in ICT10 to be able to follow the online lessons or provide support to children in following them, respectively. Emerging evidence for health impacts of Covid-19 at schools 23. Children under 10 years of age seem less likely to be infected or infectious, be symptomatic, get hospitalized, or die from the disease, according to the initial studies, although the evidence is still nascent. The risk of being infected is mainly for the teaching and other school staff, in particular older individuals and those with immunity issues, as well as to students’ families and the communities at large. Impacts 24. The school closures have negative impact on learning outcomes and inequalities, but also health (nutrition and mental), dropout rate and can eventually lead to negative economic effects. In Romania, the Covid-19 pandemic is already leading to substantial learning losses. Initial World Bank estimates show it could increase the share of functionally illiterate 11 students by up to 10 percentage points, as shown in Figure 2. Many students in Romania currently perform below the functional literacy threshold and assuming that some will lose more than others, estimates suggest that this percentage could increase by up to 10 percentage points (from 41% to 51%). The dropout rate is also likely to increase for the disadvantaged students. Challenging circumstances, such as the lack of access to a proper digital learning device and to sufficient support, but also possible loss of household income due to the impacts of the Covid-19 confinement measures on the labor market, will test the 7 SIIIR, 2017 data. 8 Laptops, personal computers or chromebooks are considered to be proper devices for online learning. 9 National Institute of Statistics, 2019. 10 Some parents are also illiterate (not only in ICT), which makes it difficult to support the children in the learning process. 11 Functional illiteracy means that a person cannot use reading, writing, and calculation skills for his or her own and the community's development. 16 ability of families and schools to keep students at school.12 Finally, according to the World Bank estimates, the learning losses and reduced years of schooling for cohorts of students affected by Covid-19 will reduce projected income gains by an estimated 3.6%, assuming that one year of schooling increases earnings by 8% on average. This could lead to an overall economic loss of up to USD 2 billion (PPP 2011) each year. The overall effects of the school closure in the context of the pandemic are summarized in Figure 4. Figure 2: Estimated impact on PISA scores following Covid-19 450 PISA Scores in Reading 440 430 420 410 400 2009 2012 2015 2018 Post-COVID ROU estimate ROU Source: World Bank education team, estimates based on OECD PISA data, 2020. Figure 3: Number of children in Romania out of school after the financial crisis of 2009 Source: Calculated by the World Bank team based on data from the National Institute of Statistics, 2020. 12 A similar situation occurred after the 2009 financial crisis, where the number of school-age resident children outside the education system in Romania doubled from 195,000 to 378,000, even though the resident population of the same age has decreased due to demographic decline and migration, as Figure 3 shows. (Shmis Tigran; Sava, Alina; Teixeira, Janssen Edelweiss Nunes; Harry Anthony. 2020. Response Note to Covid-19 in Europe and Central Asia: Policy and Practice Recommendations (English). Washington, DC: World Bank Group). 17 Figure 4: Covid-19 impact on education, human capital accumulation, inequality and stability Source: World Bank education blog, 2020. 3.SCENARIO PLANNING FOR REOPENING SCHOOLS In this chapter, we introduce the scenario planning methodology and illustrate the step by step process how it was applied to develop the scenarios for reopening schools with help of a scenario planning expert panel. Scenario planning methodology 25. Scenario planning tries to manage the uncertainties of the future by imagining a set of plausible scenarios how the future may play out, should certain trends prevail. These scenarios are neither “worst” or “best” case scenarios, or the best guess of the future, but rather they are typically two to five distinct logically consistent pathways of the future. As shown in Figure 5, this approach contrasts with the traditional forecasting, that tries to predict the future by extrapolating from past trends and typically leads to a development of a single plan. Scenario planning, contrarily, uses scenarios to generate a set of strategic options on how the government could prepare for different scenarios of the future. 18 Figure 5: Traditional forecasting vs. scenario planning Source: Scenario planning workshops, World Bank, 2020. 26. Using scenarios to manage dynamically a set of possible futures is becoming one of the core competencies of the decision-makers in the world impacted by Covid-19. The pandemic has shown that governments should no longer plan by assuming the future will look like the past. Scenario planning helps decision-makers fully embrace complexity and ambiguity, and uses the storytelling of scenarios for rehearsing the future to avoid surprises. Overall, this leads to better preparedness of the government to respond in contexts as uncertain and volatile as the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. Annex 2 includes examples of how other governments have used scenario planning in making government decisions or implementing government policies or program. 27. While typically used to imagine the futures of the next 10 to 30 years, in the case of reopening schools two months away, scenario planning was used to give voice to the stakeholders and generate a better tailored, more detailed and inclusive government response for reopening schools. Scenario planning is most commonly used with longer time horizons to map out the big trends and explore how the most uncertain ones may shape the future. In case of school reopening, the time horizon was two months away, so big innovations were unlikely. However, the scenario planning process, based on evidence and with inputs from experts from different domains, created a better understanding of the issues and a framework for exploring what the government response should be, and how best to get prepared for the different scenarios. For example, one of the tools used was the personas – imagined stories of different impacted stakeholders (e.g. teachers, parents or students) – and how their lives would be impacted in the given scenario. This made the MER better aware of the issues, their details and contributed to a better quality plan. 19 28. The scenario planning methodology typically includes five steps, outlined in Figure 6. First, it is necessary to define the scope, frame the research question and the time horizon. Then the research phase starts, where the objective is not only to collect policy evidence on the issue through any relevant strategic, analytical or monitoring documents, but also to map out the key trends that are likely to positively or negatively impact on the research question in the set-out time horizon. These insights are best collected from a 10-15-member panel of experts across the difference domains related to the research question. From these trends, the scenario panel collectively selects the two most important ones that are at the same time the most uncertain in terms of how they will play out in the future. The alternatives of these two key uncertainties (for example, if the uncertainty is the quality of the response, the alternatives may be “the response will be coordinated vs. the response will be fragmented”) are then used to create the scenario matrix, which gives four quadrants – four distinct scenarios, each of them predominantly driven by two of the forces in the quadrant. The four plausible futures are then verbalized, using storytelling, individual stories of the personas, imagined newspaper articles, etc. “A few words can evoke a world. Charismatic presenters; evocative graphics; memorable phrases, images, and archetypes; illustrative graphs of future outlooks (…) all contribute to the storytelling power of (…) scenarios.”13 29. Scenarios are used as the basis for the discussion on how to get ready for these possible futures. We either already have the strategy ready, and then we want to test it in the different scenarios, whether the specific strategic moves are viable in a given scenario, need to be amended or are redundant. Alternatively, the different scenarios can be used to generate the policy options. This means that we want to see what would be the right government response to achieve good results in a given scenario; or what should the government do in order to avoid a certain future. The final product is the strategy or a plan. It contains mainly the no- regret moves, robust or viable across scenarios; and contingency plans, which can get activated when a certain scenario starts to materialize. This significantly improves the preparedness of the government; in case the future turns out differently than it had planned for. 13 Wilkinson, A., & Kupers, R. 2013. Living in the Futures. Harvard Business Review, 91(5): 119-127. 20 Figure 6: Steps of the scenario planning methodology Source: Adapted from RAND Corporation, 2020. Application of the methodology to develop scenarios for reopening schools in Romania 30. The following application of the scenario planning methodology for reopening schools in Romania was implemented by the GSG, with support of the World Bank, and in collaboration with the MER (“team”). Step 1: Define the scope 31. The MER together with the GSG defined the scope for scenarios, using the four parameters listed in Figure 6, as follows: This means that higher education was not included in the exercise. Step 2: Identify the trends 32. Based on the defined scope, the team collected the necessary data to understand the trends that can positively or negatively impact the reopening of the schools. The team also mapped the stakeholders involved in the design or implementation of the upcoming action plan for reopening schools, as well as those who will be impacted by it. From these, the team mobilized an expert panel consisting of 14 experts, officials and disruptive thinkers from the MER, GSG, Public Health Institute, Brasov City Hall, Brasov County School Inspectorate, Federation of Parents, National Council of Students, and the World Bank. The panel also included a school 21 manager, an ICT Expert, and a teacher. The members of the expert panel were asked to list the trends related to school reopening in September 2020 from the point of view of their domains. 33. The team and the expert panel identified the following mega- and Romania-specific trends, across the areas of health, education, economy, social and environmental, technology, and political and security that are likely to impact on school reopening: Health • Virus longevity is greater than expected and a cure is not found yet. • Children of all ages get Covid-19 even if they are far less commonly infected than adults. • It is now shown that children can infect adults, teachers. • Recent studies point to negative mental health impacts of school closures and lockdowns on children (depression, violence, abuse, solitary habits). • Medical personnel cannot cope with the increased number of patients affected by Covid-19 and hospitals are saturated. Education • A large number of parents who return to work face difficulties in keeping their children, especially the younger ones, at home while schools are closed. • Vulnerable Romanian children (poor, living in rural areas, Roma, children with special education needs, with disabilities, children of returning migrants) are becoming even more vulnerable during the pandemic as they lack access to basic services. • Romanians from the diaspora are returning due to worsening employment prospects in Europe, and their children need to re-enroll in Romanian schools. • The learning gap is increasing as a consequence of school closures. Vulnerable children without proper access to online education, to learning environments, or to parental support are most affected by the pandemic. The dropout rate will increase in the context of school closures. • The curriculum has been only partially covered, and only a few students can compensate through tutoring, parental support, or private education. Economy • The resurgence of the pandemic (2nd wave in most countries, including Romania) imposes a new set of stringent measures, including a lockdown of cities and major economic centers. • The GDP forecast is grim. Experts now predict a decrease of more than 8% with firms going into bankruptcy, loss of job opportunities. • Cross border trade is significantly impacted and export of machinery, electrical equipment, and other high-value exports with EU partners are disrupted as borders are closed. • The cost of aid packages increases daily, as requests are mounting from all sectors of the economy, including for education purposes (huge cost of moving to digital learning and building capacity for teachers, children and parents). Social and • The deterioration of the pandemic forces parents to stay at home, leading to a loss environmental of livelihood (difficulties to get basic commodities) and deterioration of labor conditions. • Social distancing and lockdown have a negative impact on access to culture, arts, and entertainment. • With the 2nd wave, further de-urbanization and migration is taking place, with impacts on vulnerable populations. Technology • Access to the internet is not an issue as more than 95% of the country is covered, but not all homes are well connected, with white patches in rural zones. 22 • The technology divide is increasing as not all households and children can acquire the basic technology for accessing the learning materials. • The government cannot cope with the capacity building, e.g. preparing teachers to teach online (1 in 4 teachers are still not fully ready to teach online and use digital pedagogical material). • Digital learning is not fully available for young children in kindergartens. The younger children are also missing the regular face-to-face interactions with teachers. • Special educational needs cannot be met by technology, in particular for minorities (lack of translation) and children with disabilities. • E-learning content needs to be standardized; hybrid learning should be made possible. Political and • Government responsiveness is negatively impacted by the lack of funding to security respond to all challenges. • Covid-19 is a game-changer for political parties as they do not know how to respond to a major crisis. • The pressure for system change is voiced in most countries, as part of the population is seeking accountability and rapid solutions. Step 3: Narrow down to key uncertainties 34. The expert panel voted on the identified drivers to select the two most impactful and, at the same time, the most uncertain trends. It selected the in-person, academic and digital readiness (52%), and virus presence and confinement (22%) for the two key uncertainties (Figure 7). This means that for the experts the most important and most uncertain trends were (i) whether the authorities would get the schools ready for reopening or not (in terms of sanitary and physical distancing standards, digital readiness or the academic content for online learning); and (ii) what the second wave of Covid-19 would look like across Romania, i.e. whether the presence would be manageable without severe spikes in cases, or contrarily, the second wave would be significantly stronger than the first one, again leading to lockdowns. 23 Figure 7: Results of the vote of the expert panel on the most uncertain and impactful trends Source: Results of the survey ran among the expert panel members, July 2020. Step 4: Develop the scenarios 35. The alternatives of the two key uncertainties set the basis for the two main scenarios. They were plausible, alternative hypotheses about how the Covid-19 might unfold in Romania and impact education.14 As Figure 8 shows, in Scenario 1, Covid-19 is present (possibly leading to lockdowns, moving up the vertical axes) and schools are not ready for reopening. This means that they either receive children in overcrowded spaces without necessary sanitary safeguards, which can increase risks leading to school closures. Or, if mandatory standards are imposed and schools are not able to meet them or do not get necessary legislative or funding support, they are not able to open. “Not ready” in that context also means that teachers do not have sufficient ICT skills to be able to deliver the lessons online, or that children do not have the necessary devices, skills, or conditions to follow online classes. In scenario 2, Covid- 19 is present too, but the schools are ready to reopen. This means that they are ready in terms of the space allowing for social distancing, sanitary safeguards, and staff; but also, should the situation worsen (moving up the vertical axes) and the school, locality, or region go to lockdown, the schools are ready to provide the hybrid or digital classes. 14 The expert panel did not consider the option that there would be no Covid-19 presence at the point of school reopening. 24 Figure 8: Scenario matrix Source: Scenario planning workshops, based on the results of the vote of the expert panel, World Bank, 2020. 36. The narratives of the scenarios were co-created by the members of the expert panel. Each scenario was given a catchy title, a picture, and a story depicting the future in fall of 2020 if this scenario were to materialize. Apart from the two key uncertainties that shaped the scenario, the team also reviewed all the listed trends to identify those that would be the additionally prominent in each of the scenarios; and their impacts were woven into the stories. The full narratives of the scenarios are presented in Chapter 4. Step 5: Identify the strategic options 37. While the scenarios describe how the future may look, the strategic options are the operational answers to creating a plan. The scenario framework is used to analyze and test the potential strategic responses of the government. The strategic options for the scenarios and the corresponding action plans are described in Chapter 5. In terms of the design of the plan, what became clear at the outset of the scenario workshops was that the government response would need to be decentralized and flexible. This was because of the varying situation of the schools and their options to meet the standards, as described in Figure 9. As a result of this, the general approach to building the plan was adjusted to include the additional steps of setting the standards of readiness and a menu of options that the school principals can tap into in order to comply with the MER guidelines. 25 Figure 9: Key takeaways from the expert panel expectations Source: Scenario planning workshops, July 2020. 4.SCENARIOS15 (September 2020) In this chapter, we present the scenario narratives of the alternatives of how the future may turn out around school reopening in September 2020.16 Each of them sets the context and then examines the actions that the authorities put in place or not. The scenarios look at the different responses of the authorities at the central and local level, and examine the possible effects on the teachers, students and parents at the urban and rural level through the stories of the personas. Covid-1917 – schools without children (scenario 1) Context We are now in early September. The Covid-19 pandemic is not fading away; on the contrary, a 2nd wave hit Europe, and Romania is severely impacted. Some countries made plans for the worst-case scenarios, but Romania hoped till the last moment the situation would not get serious. There is some talk of the vaccine in the media, but it is not seen as a “silver bullet”. There are many uncertainties about the efficacy 15 The scenarios presented henceforth describe hypothetical yet plausible narratives of how the future may play out, and are used to analyze and test potential strategic responses to the envisaged developments. 16 These narratives were written in July 2020. 17 The title where the Covid negative effects are still present in 2039 (Covid-39) aims to evoke the grim mood of the scenario. 26 of the vaccine and large-scale clinical research will still be needed, as well as starting the production and ensuring it gets to the citizens. The past months have also demonstrated that the combination of testing, contact tracing, and social distancing does not fully suppress the outbreak; and herd immunity would come, if at all, only after millions of deaths around the world. The international cooperation in face of this catastrophe is a common theme in today’s world. The ubiquity of information networks and the persuasiveness of misinformation are creating much anxiety in populations. The pandemic remains a hard-to-fully-grasp threat. The response Who, exactly, is planning for the nightmare scenario in which we face a recrudescence of the pandemic with no likelihood of getting a vaccine or a breakthrough treatment? It is better to provide comfort to fellow citizens and not enter into a panic mode. There was, however, a group of experts, that was planning for the worst. Over the summer of 2020, under the auspices of the General Secretariat of the Government and the Ministry of Education and Research, with support from the World Bank, this expert panel envisioned a grim scenario for education and school reopening. The impact on education The current pandemic is giving the education system a crash course in crisis management. The Romanian government has again temporarily closed the schools in an attempt to contain the spread of the pandemic. This nationwide closure is impacting over 80% of the country’s student population. Localized reopening of the school system in rural areas (kindergartens, primary and secondary schools) is now being considered but the evaluation and validation may take months. But the reopening of schools is made impossible. Classes are crowded, and schools operate in several shifts with no possibility to bring all children back to school in the near future. There are no alternative spaces in overcrowded areas and the containers were not bought, hoping they would not be needed. Children do not have the right equipment to follow online lessons in most cases, especially at home. Access to a laptop or desktop with an interactive camera display and live streaming software is not common yet. Learning & Content Management Systems18 are not fully available. Teachers do not have access or do not know how to use the authoring tool. Even if they do, many teachers are reluctant to teach online classes, out of fear to be recorded and exposed. Preparing online classes also requires 18 LCMS relates to administration and security, teaching, assessment and registration courses, and school performance. 27 greater effort, and some teachers are not motivated to do so, in particular, the elderly ones. Those that meet the conditions for early retirement, leave altogether. The lack of capacity for all teachers to gain access to centralized e-learning platforms makes it impossible to move to online learning for all children. The courses in the languages of the ethnic minorities or the sign language are not available at all. Most likely, the number of children left behind will significantly increase in the coming months. The teaching model for distance learning must be prepared, tested, and validated. Also, guidelines for blended learning are not fully available yet and the ones that are available, are not clear. Assessment tools are not standardized or validated. Having to acquire the consent of students or parents to give the grades frustrates many teachers. More importantly, it is impossible to obtain adequate equipment for all children, even if affordable technology and software are available. Even in families that do have a laptop, they often do not have enough adequate space for children to follow the lessons. 28 Romania is learning! (Scenario 2) Context 27th of September 2020. The postponed local elections finally took place. In the context of the Covid-19 crisis, most commentators expected that these electoral stakes would freeze the decision-making process and especially endanger the start of the 2020-2021 school year. Just like in many other European countries, when the pandemic hit Romania again, a decision was made to close schools completely and to rely on online learning solutions. The suddenness of the pandemic allows little room for planning, and the country is compelled to improvise. Teachers, students, and parents are left in the unknown, sometimes facing dire situations. Teachers lack ICT savviness; kids are literally “digitally dropping out” because they did not have proper learning devices; and parents have to cope with remote work and kids’ education at once, often lacking childcare support. The response Well? Lessons learned! During the summer, the General Secretariat of the Government and the Ministry of Education and Research with support from the World Bank put in place an expert panel. Its task was to have education and health ministry representatives, together with local authorities, school managers, ICT specialists, parents, and students, imagine how the school reopening in September could play out and how to get ready for the different scenarios. The ambition was to avoid one size fits all solutions that would leave aside the children from poor backgrounds or those with special needs. This way, the experts on the panel tailored solutions for the different types of Romania’s school realities. Standards for readiness and innovative solutions were set to create a common ground of requirements that would allow a different set of fine-tuned solutions. First, a survey was sent to school principals to map the situation on the ground and to allow for school profiling. The survey corroborated the huge difference of situations between the rural and the urban areas, or even among children in the same school. In the rural areas, many schools did not meet the basic hygienic conditions (lack of toilets, sanitation, water access); some did not have health staff; some did not have devices to allow remote learning. Many teachers did not know or were reluctant to use ICTs. In most urbanized cities, many schools were overcrowded, operating under two or three shifts, thus making social distancing rules impossible to implement. As gloomy as the situation looks, the tremendous planning effort brought great fruits. Central Level At the central level, an e-learning plan was created to solve the most urgent needs via sometimes very innovative solutions. A task force of e-learning champions was set to design a practical e-learning toolkit, tapping on the already existing “Classroom of the Future” solution. They started building content that could be provided in case of a complete lockdown. The tool offered a knowledge library 29 and permitted the self-authoring of online courses. Learning & Content Management Systems19 is now fully operational and available for all the schools. The first teachers trained were sharing their knowledge with their colleagues. In some cases, reverse teaching experiments were also disseminated, with students training their professors on digital tools. Similar plans were put in place to train both kids and parents. What solutions for illiterate parents? In the areas where few households had computers, the government procured laptops, but also set up some mobile digital units (container classrooms) for kids to learn remotely with the help and supervision of digital tutors. In addition, managed by a special unit from the Ministry of Education and Research, a monitoring tool that tracks the number of cases at the local level was put in place to allow a quick decision-making process on school closure or extra sanitary measures. On top of that, focal persons – a dad who is a firefighter or a health worker, a stay home mom, or a community mediator – were identified in schools to serve as Covid-19 heroes. After having received training on rules and measures to avoid the spread of the virus, they were able to communicate effectively with the key stakeholders, to make sure that the schools abide by the standards. They received the handbook produced by the Health Ministry that greatly enlightened them while their motivation was to be sparked with extra remuneration. Finally, for the class that was to take the school leaving exams, compensatory classes together with accelerated learning methodologies were put in place to make sure that all students bear the same chances of success. The ministry gave school principals sufficient autonomy to apply solutions that worked the best for their needs: Rural Area In the Rural areas, a plan to locally employ companies that could solve water and sanitation supply was put in place. Schools that would not meet the basic standard were not able to open. Temporary space solutions mixed with digital learning allowed the selected companies to refurbish schools that caught up with the basic sanitary standards. When this was not possible, the community mediators – the Covid-19 heroes - went around the homes to deliver the worksheets to kids. The agreements with key health stakeholders that intervene in the community were formalized to be able to operate at schools. This decision was coupled with telemedicine units that briefed the school staff on hygiene and social distancing measures. In the schools, the safe movement routes were marked on the floor and basic materials, such as masks and hand sanitizers, were present to limit contamination. Urban areas In Brasov or Bucharest, overcrowded urban schools operating under two to three shifts faced tremendous challenges to implement physical distancing rules. Local authorities worked together with the Ministry of Education and Research to offer temporary empty spaces that fit the basic requirements. When such spaces were not available, a container was placed in front of the school. A massive wave of new teacher enrollment, supported by an EU funded program, permitted the government to meet the resource challenges imposed by the decreased class size. But here again, 19 The LCMS includes administration and security, teaching, assessment and registration course and school performance. 30 a hybrid learning approach was quickly put in place tapping in the e-learning tools and methodology produced by the digital task force. December 2020, Timisoara’s Covid-19 surge Mid-November 2020, in a two-week period, Timisoara saw the number of Covid-19 infections soar by 1400%. The decision was taken to put the whole city under a strict lockdown for 30 days, while the rest of the country was operating under the Covid-19 presence mode. In Timisoara, schools remained open only to receive essential workers’ kids, thus allowing nurses and physicians to concentrate on their tasks during the crisis peak. The rest of the kids experienced a fully digital model, with amble support from their teachers that took a number of digital skills and online teaching trainings over the summer. Every week, parents and teachers were discussing online or over the phone on the performance of the kids. 5.PLAN FOR REOPENING SCHOOLS In this chapter, moving forward from the scenarios developed in the scenario workshops, we describe how the scenarios were used to generate policy options. The guiding principles for reopening schools; main strategic options for how the authorities can respond to different ways the future may play out; and related actions to get ready for them, were the basis of the plan for reopening schools. 38. The scenario, where the schools are ready to reopen, set the basis for the discussion on what the authorities need to do to get ready, taking into account the differing baseline situation of schools. To that end, as outlined in Figure 10, the expert panel first defined the guiding principles for reopening schools. Then the experts agreed on three strategic options - in-person, hybrid and online learning approaches - that the authorities should consider based on the epidemiological situation and readiness to reopen and operate the schools. For each of the strategic options, the panel thus short-listed a set of mandatory standards of what it means to be ready to provide learning in each of the three approaches. To meet the standards, the panel then identified the actions for the plan for reopening schools. Taking into account the differing situation of schools and the resources they have available to put in place the 31 standards, the actions in the plan are presented in a menu of options for each learning approach. The final section of this chapter includes two simulations, related to how the action plan can be applied on the ground. Figure 10: Building blocks of a plan for reopening schools based on scenarios Guiding principles for reopening schools 39. The three main considerations for planning and organizing the reopening of schools in September 2020 include: I. infection spread control in the community is the priority. This means that the assessment from the health institutions comes first, and subsequently, principals or school boards decide to reopen schools taking into account the conditions in each school (mode of operation, enrollment of students, capacity, sanitary conditions) and its ability to comply with basic standards of physical distancing and hygiene; II. young children and children with special needs require face-to-face lessons, according to recent studies. The online learning has proven ineffective in their case. Also, the school environment provides emotional support to these children and facilitates learning through direct interaction with their peers and teachers; III. National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) recommendations need to be met. These include large-scale testing, monitoring, reducing the number of students in the class and the time spent at school, wearing masks, and following the rules of physical distancing. Box 1: Important elements in reopening schools • Clear and detailed plans are needed for each stage. • One size does not fit all. Actions are implemented locally, and each school, depending on the status of their facilities, operating mode, and the education level served, can start in one of the three modes defined below and alternate between them, depending on the virus spread in the community and the available resources at the time. 32 • Emphasis is placed on the use of masks or shields, physical distancing, and improvement of hygienic measures. • Schools with detected cases need to close immediately. • Capacity to test and track contacts needs to be increased, including placing students and school staff in quarantine or isolation, as appropriate. • School events with large number of people need to be limited. 40. These principles take into account the evidence from other countries that reopened schools before September 2020 (Annex 3) and the recommendations of the joint framework for reopening schools agreed by five international organizations20 (Annex 5). Strategic options 41. The strategic options are the government responses for the different scenarios how the future may play out. The panel identified three of them – in-person, hybrid and online approaches to learning. The scenario planning exercise set out how the second wave of Covid- 19 would look like as one of the two biggest uncertainties. The mild one, with continued sanitary and physical distancing safeguards in place, would allow for in-person attendance. Contrarily, a severe second wave, leading to school, town or whole county lockdowns, would require being ready to deliver classes in a hybrid mode or fully online. 42. The panel agreed that this uncertainty requires the authorities to get ready for all three responses to reopen and operate schools safely beyond September 2020, by showing compliance with the standards for reopening. The specific strategic options would be activated by the epidemiological triggers (e.g. numbers of cases in the community over a determined period of time). While the workshops were primarily focused on the education responses, the World Bank proposal for the epidemiological triggers and related actions is included in the 43. For each of the possible government responses, the expert panel defined the basic standards of what it means to get ready for them. The checklist of standards of readiness for in-person and online learning approach is presented in Figure 11 and more details for each of the three strategic options are provided below. 20 UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, World Food Program and UN High Commissioner for Refugees 2020 Framework for Reopening schools. 33 Figure 11: Checklist for standards of readiness Source: Scenario planning workshops, World Bank, 2020. Strategic option 1: In-person 44. This option means that all students can return to schools with a staggered schedule. Basic standards: • preschoolers and students return to school based on parental consent, respecting the rules for physical distancing, hygiene and safety; • staff, students, parents or guardians are regularly informed about Covid-19 infection protection measures; • students or teachers are isolated at home in case of fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 suspicion; • the physical distance of 1.5 m between students allows a classroom with an area of approximately 52 sqm to receive up to 23 students to ensure a 1.5m distance between students. • classes are taught only in one shift at school. If students were to come to school in more shifts per day, the cleaning between the shifts could not be provided in a timely manner. Students must feel safe in an individual classroom space. The principle to follow is "1 class of students = 1 classroom"; • schools have sufficient number of teachers to meet the need generated by the increase in the number of classes; • triage in schools is performed mainly by specialized medical staff or qualified volunteers; • the schools have adequate toilets and dispensers with hand sanitizer, and there are sufficient washing basins inside and outside of school buildings; • the staggered schedule for coming to and leaving school, and for school breaks is applied. The attendance at school is limited to six hours; 34 • at least one class per day takes place outdoors; • the distance between desks in the classroom is ensured according to the rules for physical distancing between students; • classrooms are regularly aired; • the masks are worn by staff and students (except for preschoolers) and the observance of the rules is ensured. 45. In addition to the standards, the schools also have to put in place practical solutions for ensuring the physical distancing and sanitary safeguards. For example, the circuit organization inside the school (yard, classrooms, corridors etc.) should include marking of the visible lanes to ensure "predetermined routes" of entry and exit, as well movement inside the school, allowing for a distance of 1.5m between students. Visible and easy-to-understand signs (signs, arrows, etc.) should be placed. Gatherings of students should be limited. The classroom overall space and furniture should be re-arranged for the 1.5 m distance between Source: World Bank Romania. Sala de clasa = classroom students; unnecessary objects should be removed or stored; and desks should be moved away from doors. Contact between groups of students from different classes should be limited, and only teachers at the secondary level should be allowed to change the classroom while teaching. In terms of the sanitary safeguards, the dispensers with hand sanitizer solution should be placed at the entrance to the school and in the corridors, to facilitate frequent disinfection. Upon entering the school and in all places with a good view, information materials (posters) on hygiene and protection measures should be displayed. Strategic option 2: Hybrid 46. This option means that all preschoolers and primary level students will return to school in- person, while students at the secondary level will come to school alternating between 1-2 weeks of physical attendance at school and 1-2 weeks online.21 Hybrid schooling for 21 The frequency of rotation should be adapted based on the age of the children or the grade, e.g. for pre- school and primary school students, better results can be achieved when rotating every two weeks. 35 secondary level students involves simultaneous teaching, with half of the students present in the classroom and the other half following the class from home, using streaming audio-video devices from the classroom, in real-time. More details on how to operationalize this option are in Annex 4. . Basic standards: • all the physical and sanitary distancing standards mentioned for strategic option 1 are also required for the hybrid option; • all children and pupils have adequate devices for quality online learning (e.g. chromebooks, laptops or desktops), with the priority for the disadvantaged groups (poor, at-risk students, Roma), children with special needs and children of essential staff; • all teachers will have attended a digital skills and preparation for online teaching22 course at least 2-3 weeks before the reopening of schools and have an adequate digital device for use at home and in the classroom; • the classrooms are equipped with interactive digital whiteboards, audio and video surveillance, devices for live streaming of all classes, and stable internet connection (minimum 4G LTE). Strategic option 3: Online 47. This option means that all students participate in online learning from home. Basic standards: • adequate communication infrastructure (minimum 4G LTE) is implemented in all classrooms; • all students and teachers have access to devices suitable for online education (laptop, chromebook, desktop). All classrooms are equipped with an interactive display with webcam and have the possibility of live streaming; • e-learning platforms such as Learning & Content Management System (administration and security, teaching, evaluation and registration, and school performance) and Authoring Tool are implemented; • digital content for all subjects is developed in Romanian language, sign language, and languages of the minorities. The digital content is prepared based on the digital standards for the national curriculum and is audited by the MER based on criteria that include ergonomics, color code, ease of expression etc.; • all teachers will have attended a digital skills and preparation for online teaching course at least 2-3 weeks before the reopening of schools and have an adequate digital device for use at home and in the classroom; • students get training for the educational devices and the use of the platforms; • parents get training to support the students in the use of educational devices and platforms. Attention should be paid to illiterate parents that can be enrolled in second-chance programs to acquire digital skills as well. 22 This relates to skills such as being able to adapt the in-person teaching and curriculum to the online environment, how to capture students' attention while attending classes online, how to use additional teaching tools for online interaction etc. 36 48. School attendance should be monitored and special arrangements put in place for the various at-risk groups of both students as well the school staff. Student and teacher absenteeism should be monitored and compared with the usual patterns. Consequently, local health authorities should be notified in case of a large increase in the number of student or staff absences caused by the respiratory diseases. In general, various student, teacher and school staff at-risk groups or persons with chronic conditions or disabilities should return to school only with a medical consent (details by the specific groups are outlined in Box 2). Box 2: Measures for school attendance of various at-risk groups of students and staff • teaching and auxiliary staff at risk (the elderly, people with diabetes or other chronic diseases, people with impaired immunity) will return to schools with the approval of the occupational physician; • children who are part of a risk group (e.g. chronic diseases, such as severe obesity and diabetes, disabilities, rare diseases, immunodeficiencies) will return to schools with the specific advice and recommendations of the attending physician and with the written consent of the parents. The representatives of the educational units will identify solutions to organize the continuation of the remote learning process for such children; • children who live in the same household with a person who is part of a group at risk can normally return to school. There may be certain cases in which, after a concrete and individual assessment of the degree of illness of the respective relative, it may be decided that the child should not return to school. For those who cannot return to school, the schools will identify solutions to organize the continuation of the learning remotely; • children who do not have opportunities for remote learning should return to class, and the school should provide them the necessary prevention and protection measures; • children with disabilities, depending on their specific condition, will need to be provided the information on an adapted format and will learn the rules of prevention accordingly to the specific disability. 49. The panel recommended that only the schools that meet the above-listed standards for in- person learning reopen in September 2020. Timely allocation of resources to meet the standards should be the top priority for the Government. It is important that preschoolers and primary students return to school based on maximum hygienic and sanitary safeguards put in place in the localities, and only in schools and kindergartens, which meet the above- listed standards. Schools will need timely access to resources from the central and local authorities to meet the standards, mainly for additional qualified or trained teachers to cover the staffing needs generated by reducing the number of students per classroom, as well as care personnel and administrative staff; additional temporary spaces identified in the localities or modular mobile classrooms; and protective and sanitary equipment for the staff, students and school premises. Putting in place safe conditions for the physical return to schools not only supports the return of parents to work, but in case of the preschoolers and primary school pupils, it increases the learning effectiveness, given the importance of face-to- face interaction at the age when children learn mainly by interacting with the others. 37 Action Plan 50. The proposed action plan includes the (i) immediate steps that need to be taken ahead of reopening schools and (ii) inputs to a mid-term plan for education system and school infrastructure modernization in the recovery phase from Covid-19 impacts. As such, the immediate plan (Table 1) lists the actions or measures needed to be put in place until September to be able to reopen schools for in-person learning. Schools should also be ready for the online learning; however, the plan recognizes that while some actions can be taken until September (e.g. more intense teacher training or purchase of laptops for the vulnerable groups), the investments into proper ICT infrastructure will take more time. 51. The actions were crowdsourced from the expert panel during the scenario planning workshops, by taking each of the standards and asking what the authorities need to do in order to help schools meet them. The immediate actions present a menu of options that school principals can tap into based on their specific situations (e.g. how overcrowded the classrooms already are; if the extra space is available; what the sanitary situation of the school is; how strained the staff resources already are, etc.). The mid-term plan, presented in the next section, then includes actions that will require more time to implement, properly planned investments, or would result from deeper reforms. These relate mainly to the upgrades of the school infrastructure, including the sanitary conditions and upgrades of the school buildings, as well as the provision of ICT equipment and connectivity for the use of digital in learning. 38 Table 1: Action Plan for reopening schools in the three options for learning approach SO* 1 SO 2 SO 3 Standards Actions to meet the standards In-person Hybrid Online Data for decision-making and monitoring X X • Use the SIIIR data for the school year 2020/2021 (to be entered) and updated data on school infrastructure (class area, schooling capacity by levels, health approvals) to evaluate the degree of preparedness of schools for reopening. Physical distancing Physical distancing • The physical distance of 1.5 m between • Organize the school program so that it is staggered in a students allows a classroom with an area of single shift. approximately 52 sqm to receive up to 23 • Make necessary legislative changes to allow for hiring students. of additional staff, and develop programs financed • The distance between desks is ensured, from European funds (EU-React and Recovery and according to the rules for physical distancing Resilience Facility) to attract the additional staff from between students. identified categories, support financing of their • Classes are taught in one shift per day. The salaries, provide training etc. principle to follow is "1 class of students = 1 • Arrange the furniture, assign the place for each classroom". student. • The school has sufficient number of teachers • Organize corridors, signaling, and mark spaces for to meet the need generated by the increase physical distancing. in the number of smaller classes. • Purchase temporary solutions (e.g. learning containers) • The staggered schedule for coming and for the school yard, or rent spaces in suitable buildings going from school and for school breaks is with adequate furniture to accommodate additional applied, and presence at school is limited to classes (if the school does not meet the physical six hours. distancing standards). Explore financing solutions for the additional space from EU-funded programs (e.g. EU-React and Recovery and Resilience Facility) 39 SO* 1 SO 2 SO 3 Standards Actions to meet the standards In-person Hybrid Online • Recruit and employ additional teaching staff (including counselors) to ensure in-person and online teaching, as well as support and administrative staff (cleaning, maintenance, mediators, caregivers). • Monitor classroom teaching activities and the presence of students and teachers to detect any anomalies or disruptions in the teaching process or needs for support. • Inform parents about the new rules and request agreement to send their children to school. Hygienic and sanitary safeguards Hygienic and sanitary safeguards • Triage in schools is mainly performed by • Provide in each school specialized staff and equipped specialized medical staff or qualified medical offices, adequate triage spaces and additional volunteers. sanitary spaces as needed, including for children with • The school has adequate toilets and disabilities. dispensers with hand sanitizer; a sufficient • Monitor the number of Covid-19 cases of both students number of washing basins is stalled inside and teachers in the SIIIR with appropriate frequency. and outside the school buildings. • Communicate with staff, students, parents or • At least one class hour per day is held guardians periodically. outdoors. • Isolate students or teachers at home if they have fever • Classrooms are regularly aired. or other symptoms of Covid-19 suspicion. • The masks are worn by staff and students • Purchase masks or shields, and hygienic and sanitary (except for preschoolers) and the observance equipment. of the rules is ensured. 40 SO* 1 SO 2 SO 3 Standards Actions to meet the standards In-person Hybrid Online Digital readiness Digital readiness X X Access to a proper learning devise Access to a proper learning devise • All students and teachers have access to • Purchase Chromebooks or laptops for students from adequate digital devices (Chromebooks or vulnerable groups (poor, at risk of dropping out, Roma) laptops) for quality online schooling, with with special needs, and children of essential staff, and special attention to the poor, Roma, at-risk for all teachers for use at home and in the classroom students, children with special needs, and (or rent from school). Include special accessories for the children of essential staff. various disabilities. • All teachers have a suitable digital device for use at home and in the classroom. Digital capabilities Digital capabilities • All teachers will have attended a digital skills • Recruit at the national level digital champions from and preparation for online teaching course among the teachers who will train their colleagues; at least 2-3 weeks before the reopening of help exchange good practices, innovative teaching schools. methods, new methodologies, and encourage the pro- • Students are trained in the use of digital mindset. This can include the basic mandatory educational devices and platforms. and specialized topics, based on the needs of the • Parents are instructed to provide support to teacher. their children in the use of educational • Create learning communities to encourage the devices and platforms. exchange of good practices at the level of kindergartens, schools, counties, and national level, as the support mechanism for teachers. • Extend the mentoring program used in the ROSE23 project from the high school level to the lower secondary and primary level. 23 ROSE stands for Romania Secondary Education Project that aims to reduce the dropout rate and increase the graduation rate at the secondary level by targeted interventions and grants for the lower-performing high schools. 41 SO* 1 SO 2 SO 3 Standards Actions to meet the standards In-person Hybrid Online • Train teachers on the use of most appropriate digital platforms for online education, including teaching and socio-emotional support. Explore options for financing such support from CRED project, Recovery and Resilience Facility or the European Social Fund +. • Invest in a real-time monitoring system of how the teachers deliver lessons online. ICT infrastructure ICT infrastructure • Adequate communication infrastructure • Purchase interactive digital whiteboards, live (minimum 4G LTE) is in place in all streaming devices for all classrooms, and Google suite classrooms. for teacher training and dissemination of good • All classrooms are equipped with an practices. interactive display with webcam and have the possibility of live streaming. • E-learning platforms such as Learning & Content Management System (administration and security, teaching, evaluation and registration, and school performance) and Authoring Tool are implemented. Digital content Digital content • Digital content is prepared based on the • Continue supporting the preparation of the digital digital standards for the national curriculum resources for learning (in compliance with the language and audited by the MER. requirements and ergonomics, color code, ease of expression standards etc.). *Strategic option 42 52. In addition to the most immediate steps for reopening schools safely, there are a number of measures to address the shortcomings mainly in sanitary and digital readiness of schools that should be taken in the medium-term. The need to ensure proper hygienic conditions at schools to prevent the spread of the virus resurfaced the issues with access to water, outdoor toilets, missing sanitary authorizations, etc., which will need to be addressed by additional investments. While the switch to online lessons when schools were closed during the first wave of the pandemic uncovered the gaps mainly in digital skills and access to digital devices, it also started accelerating the production of the digital content and created pressure for upgrading of the digital infrastructure of schools. The EU support to Romania’s Recovery Plan from the impacts of the pandemic creates such an opportunity for further modernization of schools, to create a resilient, fair, and quality education system. Box 3 lists the inputs to such a plan. They come out of the scenario workshops and from World Bank recommendations. Box 3: Inputs to mid-term plan for modernization of the education system and infrastructure • Give greater autonomy to the school principals to find solutions to comply with the standards. • Invest in modular spaces (containers) to provide care and education services that can be used temporarily in the school yards. Later these can be located in communities that have high natural growth rates and do not have schools to cover the number of potential students. • Install showers or other hygienic facilities at schools for children who work, as needed. • Modernize the school buildings, so that they meet at least the basic conditions.24 Apart from the connection to the utilities, the modernization should also include the consolidation of the building structures (including seismic risk and energy efficiency). • Develop the digital infrastructure so that each school can provide uninterrupted schooling and each student has access to it. • Increase the budget for education, including by attracting non-reimbursable funds, so that all schools benefit from sufficient, qualified, and trained teaching, support, auxiliary and administrative staff. Motivate the teachers by compensating them based on their performance and the hardship level of the school. • Foster positive school climate, in partnership with parents and the community. Ensure transparency in school budget priorities and their implementation. Simulation of the implementation of the Action Plan 53. This section first discusses who decides and how on school opening and then simulates the application of the action plan on the specific situations of the schools. As such, this section captures the ideas of the expert panel on the governance of the process of reopening and how the compliance would be checked. Then we present two simulations that came out of the 24 The utilities of the educational units are “inadequate” if any of the following six conditions apply: (a) the units do not have a sanitary permit, (b) the units are not connected to an authorized water source, (c) the units do not have a sanitation contract, (d ) the units do not have a thermal power plant, and instead rely only on stoves or fireplaces, (e) the units do not have indoor toilets (only outdoor), or (f) the units are not connected to the sewer system or have no septic tank. 43 scenario planning workshops. The first one shows how the school principals can tap into the actions outlined in the plan in order to meet the standards, and the second one tests the readiness of schools in Brasov county (as the participants from the Brasov County School Inspectorate were on the expert panel) to reopen schools, in terms of meeting the spatial standards. Who decides and how on school opening? 54. The panel recommended that the decisions on reopening and operating schools be decentralized to the local level. It is expected that the MER and the Ministry of Health will issue the guidelines for reopening and operating schools in the Covid-19 context, taking into account also the recommendations of this scenario planning expert panel. The panel recommended that each educational unit, through the school principal, carries out an initial self-assessment of the degree of readiness to meet the standards for reopening by the beginning of September. The MER should be able to verify the schools’ self-assessment against the new data on school infrastructure entered into the SIIIR. The panel also recommended that schools post the results of the self-assessment on their websites, on the websites of the school inspectorates or of the mayors’ offices, thereby allowing e students, parents, and the community to provide additional checks. As such, the decision to return to school should be based on the agreement of the school boards and the parents. The final decision to reopen, or to subsequently switch to hybrid or online learning, based on the epidemiological situation, would then be endorsed by the MER and the County Committee for the Emergency Situations, as outlined in Figure 12. Figure 12: Approval process for opening schools How can school principals navigate the options to meet the standards? 55. Recognizing that the situation of schools differs, the following simulation shows how the school principals can tap into the options from the Action Plan, in case they do not meet the standards for reopening. The main idea of the approach is that as it leaves the decision to reopen to the local level, and the school principals need to be given resources and flexible 44 options to meet the standards, as the simulations below show. While some schools, mainly in rural areas, have smaller numbers of students and are able to create conditions to allow for physical distancing, the situation may be quite different in some cities, where schools already operate in multiple shifts. While for some schools it may suffice to install dispensers with hand sanitizers, the schools which are not connected to a water source and have outdoor toilets will be in a more difficult situation to comply with the sanitary standards. The following simulations, presented in Figure 13, Figure 14, and Figure 15, show the options the school principal can tap into, in case his school does not meet the hygienic or spatial standards, or suffers from staff shortages to allow for the new health and educational routines to operate. Figure 16 shows options for school principals for switching to hybrid or online learning, if the school does not pass the checklist to reopen, or the epidemiological situation does not allow for it. Figure 13: Options for principals of schools which do not meet the sanitary standards 45 Figure 14: Options for principals of schools with insufficient staff Figure 15: Options for principals of schools which do not meet the standards for physical distancing 46 Figure 16: Options for principals of schools which do not meet the standards for reopening or the epidemiological situation does not allow for it How ready are the schools in Brasov to meet the spatial standards for reopening? 56. The simulation on the municipality of Brașov shows that approximately 60% of the educational units do not meet the spatial standards to reopen in September 2020.25 The schools that are ready are the ones with an average maximum of 25 students per classroom or group, meaning they allow for physical distance of 1.5 m between the students, or students and teachers.26 The calculation then takes into account the operation of educational units (one shift, two or more shifts), the number of students in a classroom, and the total number of existing classrooms in the school year 2019-2020. As Table 2 shows, 59% of the total of 63 education units are not ready to reopen in September with an average of maximum 25 students in a classroom or group. As of now, 30% that are fully prepared are mostly kindergartens with extended programs, but these at the same time will need additional teaching and care staff, and possibly also additional spaces depending on the capacity and the surface of the group rooms. The remaining 11% of the units in the city of Brasov are half- prepared. 25 The calculation was done based on the SIIIR data available in July 2020. 26 The simulation, conducted by the World Bank team, focuses on Brasov, because the representatives of the Brasov Country Inspectorate were part of the expert panel. From the standards, it is looking just at the spatial readiness, based on the available data in the SIIIR from 2019/2020 school year. 47 Table 2: How prepared are the schools in Brasov to meet the social distancing standards Degree of preparation Number of Percentage Number of units, units number of shifts Prepared 19 30% 4 schools 1 shift 14 kindergartens with an extended program 1 kindergarten with normal program Partially prepared 7 11% 5 schools in 2 shifts 2 kindergartens extended program Unprepared 37 59% 16 schools in 2 shifts 12 schools 1 shift 9 kindergartens have extended program Total 63 100% Data source: World Bank team calculations based on data from SIIIR, school year 2018/2019. 57. To meet the spatial standards, around 120 additional classrooms are needed from preschool to high school level in Brasov municipality, according to the simulation.27 These can be ensured by purchasing temporary adequately equipped learning containers for the school yard, or having the local authorities identify spaces in unused buildings that can be equipped and sanitized, and signaled for physical distancing. Additionally, the schools will need around 28 teachers for preschool and 50 teachers for primary school level, that can be temporarily paid from the European funds. All the teachers need to be trained in the use of digital learning devices and in remedial teaching, to accelerate the recovery of the missed class matter during the spring wave of the pandemic. The MER should apply the same approach to evaluate the spatial readiness of schools to reopen, by requesting from schools updated data for the 2020/2021 school year, including the module on school infrastructure that allows for a realistic assessment of specific conditions in each school (class area, level of schooling, the existence of sanitary permits, existing facilities, and utilities, etc.). 27 Specifically, these are 14 group rooms at the preschool level; 50 at the primary level; 24 at the middle school level; and 34 at the high school level. 48 6. ADDED VALUE OF THE SCENARIO PLANNING INITIATIVE 58. The World Bank support to the GSG in strengthening its strategic management role aims for results at two levels – to bring better evidence into decisions through tools like scenario planning, but also to build the capacities, continue testing the methods and inspire new ways of working in the public administration. In the context of the expected outcomes (see Figure 17)28, the scenario planning for reopening schools tried to 1) improve the capacities of the GSG and the MER teams to use evidence in the design of the plan for reopening schools, and 2) test GSG’s role in mobilizing stakeholders across different central public institutions but also vertically down the delivery chain to produce such evidence. While the impacts are outside of direct control of this RAS, the initiative also tried to 3) provide specific advisory input generated by the expert panel to the MER’s plan for reopening schools and 4) inspire new ways of approaching planning in the context of uncertainty, and engaging with the stakeholders to inform policy. The following review lists the contribution of the scenario planning initiative across the different expected results of the advisory support to the GSG. Figure 17: Expected outcomes and impacts of the World Bank support to the GSG in strengthening its strategic management role 59. Through the scenario planning workshops, the GSG and MER teams learnt to build scenarios based on evidence and through a formalized process (Outcome 1). Shortly before the start of this initiative, various interest groups (parents, teachers) published their scenarios for reopening schools. What was different about this process was that scenarios were built based on a review of a broad range of trends and formalized methodological steps were used to envision the possible futures. Also, the scenarios and recommendations for government 28 Results framework of the RAS in outlined in the Inception Report. 49 responses were a result of collective thinking, not only the view of one stakeholder group. The GSG and MER staff deepened their knowledge further through a theoretical course, and on a scale from 1 to 10, achieved an average improvement from 3.2 to 8.9 in the capacities to run a scenario planning exercise to test policy options. 60. The GSG used its convening power to gather stakeholders across different public institutions and stakeholder groups and mediated the process of creating collective evidence for MER’s decision-making (Outcome 2). In the feedback survey following the workshops, the experts stated they valued that the panel included experts from different domains and decision- making levels at one (virtual) table, which is not common. The consultations with stakeholders are mandated by the law just in case of new legislative or regulatory initiatives. The process is often formal. The impacted ministries and stakeholders submit the comments in written and the lead ministry then publishes how the comments were taken into account or not. Consultations through scenario planning workshops were different in a way that the creative narratives of the futures illustrated across different impacted areas (based on the review of trends) provided a framework for structured dialogue on solutions that the ministerial guidelines would need to cover. For example, the stakeholders put together the different parameters related to school operations, such as the academic content, human resources, finance and operations, as well as the school culture (Figure 18) to guide the discussion on the needed solutions. Figure 18: Framework for generating options for ministry guidelines on school reopening Source: Scenario planning workshops, July 2020. 61. As the first of the Policy Lab’s experiments, the scenario planning for reopening schools provided for valuable learning on how to better design the Lab projects in the Romanian 50 public administration setting (Outcome 2). The approach to the definition of the GSG’s Policy Lab conceptual model and also of its strategic management role is iterative through its experimental projects. These experiences test how the experiments should be designed to better fit into the ministerial decision-making and planning processes and who should be involved. The World Bank and GSG teams sought stakeholder feedback throughout the whole scenario planning process, drew findings and already incorporated them into the recommendations for the design of the upcoming experiments. These related mainly to better involvement of decision-makers in the choreography of experiments, better integration of experiments with the ministerial processes, as well as effective follow up from the GSG to positively influence policy with the insights from the experiments. 62. The scenario planning workshops generated concrete solutions for the MER’s plan for reopening schools (Impact 3). At the start of this initiative, the MER already had a draft plan. The short-term time horizon allowed for detailed visioning on the impacts of possible scenarios on different stakeholder groups29 (e.g. teachers, parents or students, as described in the persona stories in Chapter 4). Similarly, the discussion on the government response went into details, which allowed for fine-tuning of the MER’s original plan. For example, the representatives from school inspectorates and parents stimulated discussion on the concrete struggles of the low-income but also average income families with multiple school age children to ensure the conditions for online lessons and sufficient support for children. The school inspectorates emphasized that parents from low income families are often unable to provide support to their children in online lessons, even in case the computer and internet connection are available at home, because often they are not ICT-, but also generally literate. As a result, the actions in support of this group of parents were put in the Action Plan (e.g. second chance programs). The ICT experts recommended the digital champions, that emerged as a good practice during the first wave of the pandemic. Appointing them from among the teachers was to help their peers and students with the use of the digital platforms. The digital champions got included in the Action Plan. The stakeholders unequivocally reiterated that the decision-making on reopening schools needed to be decentralized and the MER was in turn interested in the views of the school principals on the concrete steps and resources needed for the school routines, e.g. for triage, physical distancing, disinfection, signage of the circuits etc. This inspired the “in the school principal’s shoes” simulations. More examples are included in (Figure 9) as well the concrete actions in the plan (Table 1). 63. The concept of scenarios started to be frequently used in relation to school reopening and the workshop participants claim scenarios should be used more (Impact 4). With the scenario planning initiative, the World Bank and GSG teams joined, the various stakeholders30 29 It is well known that projections on future developments of phenomena have a lower degree of confidence as the time horizon for which the projections are made is further away. Conversely, the closer the time horizon to the moment the projection is made, the more closely resembling its content is to the reality, given the low probability of significant mutations occurring in the evolution of the studied phenomena in the short run. These considerations allowed the development of "images" with a high degree of detail about the near future within the scenario planning exercise. 30 The Ministry of Public Finance asked the MER in the High-level Working group for school reopening to present multiple scenarios of possible developments and present some key strategic responses to each of them. The 51 calling for the need to be prepared for multiple scenarios and to know how to react to them with a set of measures. Having participated in the scenario workshops and the training course on scenarios, the ministry representatives claimed the initiative contributed to their professional development, and that scenario planning should be used more, so that they learn to master the method but also manage to integrate it in their work. The objective of the capacity building activities is to give the ministries the tools, rather than solutions, to connect with the stakeholders in a new way, create a dialogue and co-design or inform the policies. The involvement of the beneficiaries (in this case the students and parents) is novel. It is in line with the Policy Lab approach and it aims to create better empathy of the ministry staff for the beneficiary needs, whereby creating solutions better tailored to their needs. 64. All of the above present emerging results and impacts of the scenario planning initiative in demonstrating the added value of greater use of evidence in decision-making. These efforts have to be continued. The GSG’s Policy Lab intends to continue with rapid experimentation, with methods like scenario planning and others, to build the track record, disseminate the practices, develop policy insights, inspire new ways of working, and aim for incremental improvements of individual capacities, which can lead to improved institutional capacities, once the knowledge and action foundations have been put in place. 7.NEXT STEPS 65. This document provides collective research of the expert panel that will serve as an input to the decision-making at the MER on how to reopen schools safely. Its value is in the coordinated position of the experts across the delivery chain, including the beneficiaries, which has added to the level of detail and nuances in order not to leave anyone behind, and better tailor the solutions to the needs of the teachers, students and parents. 66. The GSG and the MER teams will be certified in the capacity to run a scenario planning exercise to generate inputs to decision-making. In addition to this practical experience of building the scenarios to generate policy options, both teams will take a GSG-World Bank theoretical course on scenario planning analysis and after passing the test, will get certified in the capacity to run it. Scenario planning will become part of the offer of GSG’s support to ministries in decision-making and planning through the Policy Lab initiative. Preparing for multiple scenarios will remain highly relevant also in the medium-term and in other sectors, to build more resilient plans in face of further cascading impacts of the pandemic on the economy and society. 67. The GSG and the World Bank team will explore support to developing solutions for the ideas that came out of the scenario planning workshops. These include for example the set-up of a platform for school principals for sharing good practices and innovative solutions that schools put in place in order to comply with the standards for reopening and running schools Federation of Parents presented their own scenarios and recommendations for each of them. The Teachers’ Union asked for clear plans for multiple scenarios. 52 during the pandemic. The initiative could be supported through other Policy Lab methods, such as human-centered design and could again harness the insights of several of the panel members to co-create the solutions, in order to achieve better policy results on the ground, in order to provide safe, quality and continuous schooling for children during the pandemic. 53 ANNEXES Annex 1: Members of the expert panel Brasov County School Ovidiu Tripsa (General School Inspector) Inspectorate Daniela Florescu (School Inspector for preschool education, ECD expert) Gabriela Necula (School Inspector for preschool education) Silviana Cioceanu (School Inspector for Educational Projects) Brasov City Hall Costel Mihai (Deputy Mayor) School Manager Carmen Lica (Executive Director, Step by Step Center) National Student Council Antonia Pup (President) Federation of Parents Corina Atanasiu (President) ICT Expert Daniel Bojte (ICT and infrastructure expert) Digital expert/teacher Radu Jugureanu (eLearning expert, Team leader of the technical support team for the World Bank ROSE project, Horváth & Partners Management Consultants, teacher of Mathematics) Health Experts Alexandra Maria Cucu (Director, National Center for the evaluation and promotion of health) Ministry of Education and Popescu Valentin (Head of the Public Policy Unit) Research General Secretariat of the Daniel Rucareanu Government Serban Cerkez (Directorate for Policy Coordination and Priorities) World Bank Education team Alina Sava (Education Specialist) Ioana Ciucanu (Education Expert) 54 Annex 2: International examples of the use of scenario planning in the public sector The world of scenarios and scenario planning has rapidly expanded in the past three decades as more organizations started to use scenarios within their strategy processes. Mont Fleur Scenarios The Mont Fleur (South Africa) scenarios, which were completed in 1992, is considered as one of the most successful scenario planning exercises from a public sector perspective. These scenarios sought to answer the question ‘What will South Africa look like in 2002?’ The Mont Fleur scenarios were one in a series of scenario exercises in South Africa at the turn of the 1990s. During the transition away from apartheid, this project brought together 22 prominent experts and thinkers from across South African society, including community activists, conservative politicians, African National Congress officials, trade unionists, academics, establishment economists, and corporate executives. Their objective was to develop a set of alternative stories about South Africa’s future, to provoke debate and propel forward movement in the country. Several scenarios were produced: • The “Ostrich” scenario pointed out the risk and futility of the white government’s trying to prevent or avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority. • A second scenario, “Lame Duck,” envisioned a prolonged transition with a constitutionally weakened government. Because the government purports to respond to all, but satisfies none, investors hold back, and growth and development languish amidst a mood of long, slow uncertainty. • The Lame Duck scenario allowed people to see potential dangers in certain ways of organizing the coalition and how these could be mitigated. • Another scenario, “Icarus,” suggested that a black government could come to power on a wave of public support, embark on a huge, unsustainable public spending program, and consequently crash the economy. This was the first time that a team including prominent left-wing economists had discussed the possibility of a new government trying to do too much. • Finally, the “Flight of the Flamingoes” scenario outlined the broad parameters of a positive and successful transition: everyone in the society rises slowly and steadily together. Overall, this project contributed to the building of a common language for talking across groups about the opportunities and challenges facing the country, and hence about a way forward. Destino Colombia Colombia has a long history of violent conflict. In the first half of the twentieth century, the country went through two bloody civil wars, the second one simply called “The Violence”. Then from the 1960s, it suffered continuing clashes among the military, drug traffickers, criminal gangs, left-wing 55 guerillas, and right-wing paramilitaries, characterized by kidnappings, executions, massacres, and no-go zones. In 1996, civic-minded businessman Manuel José Carvajal heard about the Mont Fleur Scenario exercise in South Africa and thought that such a transformative scenario process might help Colombians find new ways out of their conflict. A scenario team was assembled and ultimately ended up including guerillas and paramilitaries, as well as academics, activists, businesspeople, journalists, military officers, peasants, politicians, trade unionists, and young people. The process of scenario building took place in three stages or workshops. In the first, called the divergence stage, the members of the Scenario Team articulated their various positions on the challenges facing the country. In the following emergence stage, national and international experts addressed group members, broadening their knowledge of various subjects regarding the country and its place in the world. Finally, during the third stage, the group engaged in a process of convergence, starting with a broad number of alternatives and concluding with four scenarios. The final report offered four carefully argued, beautifully written scenarios for the future of Colombia. Both this content and the process from which it issues offered useful lessons for collaborative, future-creating efforts everywhere. Other scenario planning exercises Since Mont Fleur and Destino Colombia, major scenario projects were conducted in Canada, Colombia, the United States, and Guatemala, and smaller ones in Cyprus, Northern Ireland, and Japan. For instance, in Visión Guatemala, the team members were able to see and listen to each other with empathy, and this opened the door to honest and open dialogue, including about areas of wrenching disagreement. Out of that dialogue emerged the shared moral values that inform the scenarios. The team has become an important symbol and model of cross-sector networking and collaboration in Guatemala. Similar projects were led in Indonesia, Kenya, India, Burundi, Sweden, and Finland, in many cases with explicit reference to Mont Fleur or Destino Colombia. The United Nations Development Program also embarked on several projects and research related to the civic scenario and other dialogue efforts, especially in Latin America. In recent years, several bilateral aid agencies, such as Agence Française de Développement, also used scenario planning to prepare country strategies in conflict-affected situations. It is worth mentioning the Shell scenarios. Shell has been developing possible visions of the future since the 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions. Shell scenarios are plausible and challenging descriptions of the future landscape, on a large number of topics. They are intended to stretch thinking and help to make crucial choices in times of uncertainty and transitions. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions encouraging leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities and stretch their thinking. Shell scenarios also helped governments, academia, and business in understanding possibilities and uncertainties ahead. 56 Annex 3: How other countries reopened schools in 2020 GERMANY: High level of responsibilities for mayors and school principals. Self-administered tests in some high schools. Basic recommendations valid for everyone: hallways used as one-way streets, masks worn even in classrooms, chairs assigned to a child and spaced, windows kept open for good ventilation and improved air circulation. 1.8 meters distance between students when standing in line. DENMARK: The classes took place outside, in parks, in the woods, in the schoolyard as much as possible. On April 15, Denmark was the first country in Europe to reopen primary schools, nurseries and kindergartens. On May 18, students between the ages of 12 and 16 returned to high school. The attendance was mandatory. Children had to wash their hands at least once every two hours. Surfaces were cleaned twice a day. Tents were arranged as temporary classrooms in parks and playgrounds. AUSTRIA: Scheduled school program. Classes of students were divided into two different groups, and these alternated by half of the week. From Monday to Wednesday one group and the other from Thursday to Friday, then then they changed the following week. Students aged 15 and over who were not in the final years of the cycle returned to school 2 weeks later. FRANCE: Progressive reopening starting with the lower classes. Classes were limited to 10 students for preschoolers and 15 students for other age groups. Also, although learning remained compulsory, families were able to choose between coming to school or opting for remote learning. 30% of children returned to school in the first wave. Seventy new cases in the first week led to the immediate closure of those affected schools. FINLAND: Virtual learning environments are widely used even under normal conditions. The classes resumed for all students in preschool, primary and secondary education on May 14. Schools are essential for the well-being of children and therefore, it was considered important for teachers to meet with all students after the remote learning period before the start of the summer vacation in two weeks and to assess the situation of each student. Decisions about returning to school were made at the local level. With the permission of the family and the notification of the doctor, the students at risk remained to study from home. The return to school was made with an emphasis on avoiding unnecessary physical contact and strict observance of hygiene measures. A middle school in Helsinki: Students stay with the teacher in class throughout the day, including breaks. The daily starting hours of school, the breaks, and the lunch break are taken in turn by different classes. This means the school starts between 8:10-9:00 and it ends between 14:00-14:40. Students wait for the teacher to go out in front of the school building every morning. The teacher then picks them up and brings them to classroom using an assigned door. The break takes place outside under the supervision of the class teacher and at different times. Washing hands is done often, at least upon arrival and departure from school, and before lunch. A hand sanitizer is also provided. Students are themselves responsible for keeping their distance from other people, which is also emphasized at home. The use of masks is not mandatory. 57 Annex 4: Insights on how to operationalize the hybrid learning model Hybrid schooling model involves simultaneous teaching with students in the classroom and at home. The teacher is expected to carry out a traditional teaching activity in the classroom with 15 students, and the remaining 15 are at home watching the class in the real-time. The issue with this approach is that during the in-person and online learning, the didactic design does not differentiate between the two ecosystems and between the media employed for the teaching, learning and assessment. The approach should thus be to design a single teaching-learning-assessment environment both for students attending the class in person, and for those attending it at home, simultaneously. This means the use of digital interfaces for all students, as Figures show below. Both those in the classroom and those at home need to employ digital systems. The teacher creates the content, forwards it to the students and evaluates their progress. Such an implementation approach has the following advantages: i) the Flipped Classroom method can be employed; ii) the teacher can create his or her own digital content; and iii) personalized education is possible. 58 Annex 5: UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, World Food Program and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Framework for reopening schools in 2020 The recommendations of the jointly developed framework31 are grouped around six dimensions: I. Reforming educational policies: introducing clear policies on opening and closing schools during public health emergencies, reforms needed to ensure equitable access for marginalized and out-of-school children, and to strengthen and standardize distance learning. II. Financing: analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on education and provision of funds for investments in strengthening educational systems for recovery and resilience. III. Safe education: ensuring conditions that reduce the transmission of disease, protect essential services and goods, and promote healthy behavior. This includes access to soap and clean water for washing hands, procedures on when school staff or students feel unwell, protocols on physical distancing and hygienic good practices. IV. Compensating for learning: great emphasis on methods that compensate for the lost learning time, strengthen pedagogy and rely on hybrid learning models. It must also include information on the transmission and prevention of disease. V. Well-being and protection: it is recommended to focus on the well-being of students and the protection of children by providing essential school services, including medical care and meals. VI. Supporting the most marginalized: adapting school opening policies to ensure access for marginalized groups, all out-of-school children, migrants and minority populations. 31 https://www.unicef.org/documents/framework-reopening-schools 59 Annex 6: Epidemiological triggers for keeping the schools open or closed Step 4 Stage 3 Stage 2 Stage 1 Schools in the community Schools reopen with Schools move to hybrid Schools move to in- remain closed, students administrative staff in option of schooling, with person schooling for all learn online. preparation for reopening, students alternating students/children while students learn online between in-person and observing the physical online learning distancing and hygienic safeguard An alarming growth of Relaxed restrictions and A decreasing number of A decreasing number of infections and total decreasing number of new cases in the new cases in the quarantine of the new cases in the community community in 15 days from community in 15 days community for the last 15 days. moving from stage 3. from moving from stage 2. Local health authorities There are no cases of have the ability to test and infection among school There are no cases of diagnose people in the staff in the last 15 days infection among school community who have after moving from stage 3. staff and students in the symptoms. last 15 days after moving Local health authorities from stage 2. There is capacity at the have the ability to test and local/county level to treat diagnose people in the There is an extensive Covid-19 patients. community, as well as to community-based testing track their contacts. program for contacts and asymptomatic patients. There is capacity at the local/county level to treat The capacity of hospitals Covid-19 patients. at the local/county level returned to the level before the pandemic. 60 Annex 7. Slides from scenario planning workshops 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Competence makes a difference! Project selected under the Administrative Capacity Operational Program, co-financed by European Union from the European Social Fund 98