The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA | Zambia | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2022 | Seq No: 4 | ARCHIVED on 05-Jun-2024 | ISR60519 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Community Development and Social Services (MCDSS), Republic of Zambia Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 28-Jun-2022 Effectiveness Date: 10-Nov-2022 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 11-Mar-2024 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 03-Apr-2024 Original Closing Date: 30-Jun-2025 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2025 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To protect poor and vulnerable households' consumption in response to shocks in Zambia Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Social Cash Transfer:(Cost $196.31 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Scaling Up Shock Responsive Social Protection (SSRSP) Project has demonstrated strong implementation progress since effectiveness on November 10, 2022. The Social Cash Transfer (SCT) payments have been stabilized with predictable and reliable delivery of payments. It is also progressively scaling up coverage, with a little over 1.31 million households having been reached by the end of 2023, exceeding the end-project target. It is noteworthy that the current caseload has been estimated to represent 39 percent of the population and 82 percent of the extreme poor, one of the best safety net coverages in the region with strong pro-poor elements, although ensuring the adequacy of the transfer value in the face of persistently high inflation remains a challenge. Work on the shock responsive social protection (SRSP) agenda has made significant progress. A diagnostic of the readiness of national social protection systems for shock response, as well as the SCT Scalability Framework to guide the delivery of emergency assistance have now been completed. Following, the development of the SCT Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) to operationalize the Scalability Framework has been drafted and is pending validation. The Urban Price Shock and Food Security emergency cash transfer response pilot interventions were successfully implemented across selected districts. These responses helped to test the principles of the SCT Scalability Framework and have 6/5/2024 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) informed the SOPs development. The Ministry of Community Development and Social Services (MCDSS) is now preparing an emergency response to the on-going drought, leveraging the SSRSP project. Lastly, work on the SCT nutrition messaging has advanced. The MCDSS has obtained a short code from the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority to pilot the delivery of bulk short message/messaging service to the SCT households with the aim of influencing positive nutrition practices. Work is now underway to finalize the nutrition messages implementation plan and engage a mobile network operation to deliver the messages. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Substantial Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Moderate Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other Moderate Low Low Overall Moderate Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To protect poor and vulnerable households' consumption in response to shocks in Zambia IN01420608 ►Percentage change in beneficiary household expenditure on food (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 To be tracked through the SCT Impact Evaluation midline and endline surveys. Comments: IN01420609 6/5/2024 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) ►Percentage change in number of beneficiary households eating more than one meal per day (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 Date 23-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 To be tracked through the SCT Impact Evaluation midline and endline surveys. Comments: Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Social Cash Transfers IN01420610 ►SCT transfer value as a share of national poverty line (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 8.00 7.60 3.10 10.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 The significant decline in the current real value of the SCT reflects a revised LCMS 2022 poverty Comments: threshold of ZMW 517.6 per adult equivalent (from ZMW 214) as well as the rising inflation. IN01420736 ►Share of SCT beneficiaries receiving payments on time (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 83.00 41.00 45.00 100.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 The calculation was revised to take year-on-year values rather than cumulative performance. Comments: IN01420737 ►Share of SCT beneficiaries receiving payments through ZISPIS (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 54.00 100.00 95.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 IN01420738 ►Share of eligible SCT beneficiaries who received the education lumpsum grant (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.00 67.92 85.50 95.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 6/5/2024 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) The calculation was revised to take year-on-year values rather than cumulative performance. Comments: IN01420739 ►Share of SCT Beneficiaries receiving KGS Education Grants on time (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.00 31.80 100.00 75.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 The calculation was revised to take year-on-year values rather than cumulative performance. Comments: IN01420740 ►Number of SCT beneficiaries in a district severely affected by climate change (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 64,336.00 74,454.00 215,371.00 70,097.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 Defined as all SCT beneficiaries in districts classified as having IPC level 3 and above, which increased Comments: from 10 to 22 districts in November 2023 due to the on-going drought. IN01420741 ►Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (Number, Corporate) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 974,000.00 5,725,190.00 6,817,725.00 1,026,000.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 The target value was miscalculated and needs to be updated. Comments: IN01420742 Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Female (Number, Corporate Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 642,840.00 2,919,847.00 3,477,040.00 677,160.00 IN01420743 ►Share of SCT related complaints received and resolved within the stipulated period of time (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 69.00 46.20 58.00 85.00 Date 06-May-2022 31-Aug-2023 31-Dec-2023 30-Jun-2025 The calculation was revised to take year-on-year values rather than cumulative performance. Comments: Performance-Based Conditions 6/5/2024 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P179095 IDA-71860 Effective USD 155.00 155.00 0.00 154.40 0.60 100% P179095 TF-B8770 Effective USD 22.62 22.62 0.00 21.66 0.96 96% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P179095 IDA-71860 Effective 28-Jun-2022 27-Oct-2022 10-Nov-2022 30-Jun-2025 30-Jun-2025 P179095 TF-B8770 Effective 28-Jun-2022 27-Oct-2022 10-Nov-2022 31-Oct-2023 30-Sep-2024 Cumulative Disbursements 6/5/2024 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project (P179095) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 12-Oct-2023 Related Project(s) P181647-AF for Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project ,P181651-SCALING-UP SHOCK RESPONSIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION PROJECT ADDITIONAL FINANCING ,P181711-Second Additional Financing for the Scaling-up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project 6/5/2024 Page 6 of 6