ROMANIA Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Romania Territorial Impact Assessment (P172820) Output 2 – Inputs towards the development of a public policy document on territorial impact assessment a. Report on the practice of territorial impact assessment and impact forecasting of infrastructure investment, with three case studies May 2021 1 Disclaimer This report is a product of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretation, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This report does not necessarily represent the position of the European Union or the Romanian Government. Copyright Statement The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable laws. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with the complete information to either: (i) Ministerul Dezvoltării, Lucrărilor Publice È™i AdministraÈ›iei (Str. Apolodor 17, Bucharest, Romania); or (ii) the World Bank Group Romania (Vasile Lascăr Street, No 31, Et 6, Sector 2, Bucharest, Romania). Acknowledgements This report was delivered in May 2021 under the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Territorial Impact Assessment, signed between the Ministry of Development, Public Works and Administration and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development on December 9, 2019. The report has been developed under the guidance and supervision of Christoph Pusch (Practice Manager, Urban and Disaster Risk Management, Europe and Central Asia) and Tatiana Proskuryakova (Country Manager, Romania and Hungary). The report has been prepared by a team coordinated by Ellen Hamilton, Dean Cira and Paul Kriss (Lead Urban Specialists) and consisting of Carli Venter (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Marcel Ionescu-Heroiu (Senior Urban Development Specialist),Wahid Kraiem (Urban Expert), Damaris Bangean, Bogdan Topan (Urban Analysts) and George Moldoveanu (Information Assistant). The team would like to express its gratitude for the excellent cooperation, guidance, and timely feedback provided by the representatives of the Ministry of Development, Public Works and Administration, in particular to the Minister Attila Cseke, General Director Alexandru Soare, Director Liviu BăileÈ™teanu, Head of Office Radu NecÈ™uliu, and also Daniel Vâlceanu, Amalia Virdol, Beniamin Stoica , Georgiana Toth, Emilia Milutinovici, Alina Huzui. 2 Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 10 1.1. Background information and overview ............................................................................................... 10 1.2. Objectives and scope .......................................................................................................................... 10 Structure of the report ................................................................................................................................. 11 2. About TIA ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1. Context and background ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.2. Determining need for and defining a TIA ............................................................................................ 14 Defining a TIA................................................................................................................................................ 14 2.3. TIA Models and their Characteristics .................................................................................................. 18 TARGET_TIA .................................................................................................................................................. 20 SASI ............................................................................................................................................................... 20 TEQUILA ........................................................................................................................................................ 20 STeMA-TIA .................................................................................................................................................... 20 EATIA............................................................................................................................................................. 21 SEA, PSIA, and SECHSA.................................................................................................................................. 21 2.4. Rationale for the selected case studies ............................................................................................... 22 3. Kakheti Regional Development Project, Georgia .......................................................................................... 24 3.1. Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 24 3.2. Region description .............................................................................................................................. 24 3.3. Project description .............................................................................................................................. 24 3.4. SECSHA Assessment Methodology and Results .................................................................................. 26 Analysis of alternatives ................................................................................................................................. 28 Results .......................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.5. Key Take-aways & Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 29 3.6. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 30 4. Latium region 2014-2020 Regional Operational Program, Italy ................................................................... 32 4.1. Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 32 4.2. Region description .............................................................................................................................. 32 4.3. Project description .............................................................................................................................. 33 4.4. TIA Assessment Methodology and Results ......................................................................................... 36 4.5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 44 4.6. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 44 5. Santa Cruz Corridor Connector Project, Bolivia ............................................................................................ 46 5.1. Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 46 5.2. Region description .............................................................................................................................. 46 3 5.3. Project description .............................................................................................................................. 46 5.4. TIA Assessment Methodology and Results ......................................................................................... 48 Poverty and Social Impact Analysis .............................................................................................................. 48 Approaches applied to the analysis and interpretation of data ................................................................... 49 5.5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 55 5.6. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 55 6. Concluding Remarks and Recommendations ............................................................................................... 57 6.1. Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 57 6.2. Steps forward ...................................................................................................................................... 58 6.3. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 59 7. References .................................................................................................................................................... 60 Annex 1. TIA Methodologies .......................................................................................................................... 63 Target_TIA ........................................................................................................................................................ 63 STeMA-TIA ........................................................................................................................................................ 65 ESPON TEQUILA ................................................................................................................................................ 67 ESPON EATIA Model ......................................................................................................................................... 69 ESPON TIA-Cross-Border Cooperation (TIA-CBC) ............................................................................................. 71 TIA Quick Check ................................................................................................................................................ 72 LUISA ................................................................................................................................................................ 74 RHOMOLO ........................................................................................................................................................ 75 SASI ................................................................................................................................................................... 76 Annex 2. Kakheti Regional Development Program ........................................................................................ 78 Anticipated Impacts and Proposed Mitigation Measures ............................................................................ 80 Annex 3. Details of the TIA of Latium Region 2014-2020 ROP ...................................................................... 85 Conceptual Frameworks of STeMA-TIA 3.0 .................................................................................................. 86 Results of the STeMA-TIA 3.0 in application to the Latium 2014-2020 ROP ................................................ 88 4 List of Figures Figure 1. Four-level procedure of a Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA) ............................................................. 15 Figure 2. Determining whether a TIA is needed ................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3. Territorial impact combining exposure with sensitivity ........................................................................ 17 Figure 4. Integration of TIA framework into national framework ........................................................................ 18 Figure 5. Structure of the Georgia Regional Development Project ...................................................................... 25 Figure 6. Implementation and Institutional Arrangements for the Georgia Regional Development Project....... 26 Figure 7. GDP per capita of Lazio region against EU-27 and Italy averages (in EUR per inhabitant) .................... 33 Figure 8. Economic activity rate of Lazio region against EU-27 and Italy averages .............................................. 33 Figure 9. Unemployment rate of Lazio region against EU-27 and Italy averages (%) ........................................... 33 Figure 10. Tertiary education attainment rate of Lazio region against EU-27 and Italy averages (%) ................. 33 Figure 11. Funding of Latium 2014-2020 ROP (in millions EUR) ........................................................................... 34 Figure 12. TIA Logical Framework of Territorial Cohesion by STeMA ................................................................... 37 Figure 13. SG20 Smart Growth determinant, ex ante and ex post situation ........................................................ 40 Figure 14. Sustainable Growth ............................................................................................................................. 41 Figure 15. IG51 Inclusive Growth determinant, ex ante and ex post situation. ................................................... 42 Figure 16. RF19 Resources and Funds determinant, ex ante and ex post situation. ............................................ 43 Figure 17. Logical Framework of the STEMA-TIA decision-making process. ........................................................ 58 Figure 18. Structure of the SASI model ................................................................................................................. 77 Figure 19. Projected Economic Impacts of the Georgia Regional Development Program ................................... 78 Figure 20. SG3 Indicator (Internet in the public body), ex ante and ex post situation ......................................... 88 Figure 21. SG17 Indicator (Telecommunication development level), ex ante and ex post situation ................... 88 Figure 22. SuG28 Indicator Insurance and financial institutions, ex ante and ex post situation. ......................... 90 Figure 23. SuG41 Indicator Urban Waste, ex ante and ex post situation ............................................................. 90 Figure 24. IG38 Sector Inclusion of foreigners, ex ante and ex post situation ..................................................... 92 Figure 25. Source: IG40 Indicator Female Employment, ex ante and ex post situation ....................................... 92 5 List of Maps Map 1. Kakheti region of Georgia ......................................................................................................................... 24 Map 2. Lazio region in Italy ................................................................................................................................... 32 Map 3. Selected “inner areasâ€? for pilot strategies in Latium ROP ........................................................................ 35 Map 4. Provinces of the Latium region ................................................................................................................. 36 Map 5. Santa Cruz Department of Bolivia ............................................................................................................ 46 Map 6. Georgia Regional Development Project: Kakheti Region ......................................................................... 78 Map 7. Regional Innovation Performance in the Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2019 .................................... 85 Map 8. Italy Regional Innovation Performance 2019 ........................................................................................... 86 6 List of Tables Table 1. Questions to consider when determining the scope of a TIA ................................................................. 15 Table 2. Characteristics of TIA tools ..................................................................................................................... 19 Table 3. Benefits of Regional Environmental Assessments (REAs) ....................................................................... 21 Table 4. Objective of the SECHSA Report for the Georgia Regional Development Project .................................. 27 Table 5. Actors and beneficiaries of the Georgia Regional Development Project ................................................ 27 Table 6. Scenario Analyses of sectoral interventions with alternative geographic and management considerations ...................................................................................................................................................... 28 Table 7. Expected Impacts of the Latium 2014-2020 ROP ................................................................................... 34 Table 8. Logical Tree of Smart Growth ................................................................................................................. 38 Table 9. STeMA ex ante assessment of Latium Region, Smart Growth determinant ........................................... 38 Table 10. STeMA ex post assessment of Latium Region ROP policy choices, Smart Growth determinant .......... 39 Table 11. Administrative Areas of Road Upgrading .............................................................................................. 47 Table 12. Project Cost and Financing .................................................................................................................... 47 Table 13. Grouping of criteria categories on highly vulnerable indigenous peoples ........................................... 48 Table 14. Ethnic composition of the population: San Jose de Chiquitos and San Ignacio de Velasco.................. 49 Table 15. Ethnic composition of the population: San Miguel de Velasco and San Rafael de Velasco ................. 50 Table 16. Shared vocational areas among the region .......................................................................................... 50 Table 17. Employment by sector in municipalities ............................................................................................... 51 Table 18. Organizational-Community Self-Diagnosis Matrix: Problems Identified and Solutions Proposed By Communities......................................................................................................................................................... 53 Table 19. Activities and Responsible Agencies for Georgia Regional Development Project ................................ 79 Table 20. Anticipated Impacts and Recommendations for their Mitigation ........................................................ 80 Table 21. Italy Regional Innovation Performance 2019 ........................................................................................ 86 Table 22. Logical tree of Sustainable Growth ....................................................................................................... 86 Table 23. Logical tree of Inclusive Growth............................................................................................................ 87 Table 24. Logical tree of Resources and Funds ..................................................................................................... 87 Table 25. Ex ante assessment of Sustainable Growth .......................................................................................... 89 Table 26. Ex post assessment of Sustainable Growth .......................................................................................... 89 Table 27. Ex ante assessment of Inclusive Growth ............................................................................................... 91 Table 28. Ex post assessment of Inclusive Growth ............................................................................................... 91 Table 29. STeMA ex ante assessment of Latium Region ROP policy choices, Resources and Funds determinant. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 93 Table 30. STeMA ex post assessment of Latium Region ROP policy choices, Resources and Funds determinant. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 93 7 Abbreviations and Acronyms CP Cohesion Policy EC European Commission ERDF European Regional Development Fund ESF European Social Fund ESIF European Structural and Investment Funds ESPON European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product HDI Human Development Index IA Impact Assessment ICT Information & Communication Technology IDA Inter-community Development Association IEG Independent Evaluation Group ITI Integrated Territorial Investment LUISA Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MA Managing Authority MEF Ministry of European Funds MDPWA Ministry of Development, Public Works and Administration NCRIA National Company for Road Infrastructure Administration OP Operational Programme PDO Project Development Objective POCA OP Administrative Capacity PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Analysis RAS Reimbursable Advisory Services ROP Regional Operational Programme R&D Research and Development SECHSA Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment STeMA Sustainable Territorial Economic/Environmental Management Approach TC Territorial Cohesion TIA Territorial Impact Assessment WB World Bank 8 Chapter 1: Introduction 9 1. Introduction 1.1. Background information and overview MDPWA has entered into an agreement with the World Bank to provide technical assistance as part of a larger overall project with the aim of developing a territorial impact assessment tool. The aim of the project is to substantiate and support, with much more precise information the decision-making process regarding the investment programs and the implementation of local development strategies. The intention is for the tool to estimate the impact of the territorial impact of policies, based on procedures similar to those used at European level, especially with regard to the results of the TIPTAP, ARTS and TIA Tool projects funded under the ESPON Cooperation Programme. This report conducts a review on the practice of territorial impact assessment and impact forecasting of infrastructure investments, with three supporting case studies. Building upon on the results and findings of these case studies conducted, this report provides recommendations to MDPWA for the improvement of local development strategies. It serves to provide support to MDPWA in its pilot application of the territorial impact assessment tool through the National Program for Local Development, reviewing the results and make recommendations for improvement; and provides recommendations on policy options and pathways to operationalize and implement the territorial impact assessment tool within MDPWA and across other relevant sector ministries. It presents the definitions, types, and use of territorial impact assessments (TIA) as a tool in evidence based policy-making. It provides an overview of current TIA tools which considers their rationale, strengths and weaknesses to help the client make a better-informed decision in selecting which TIA tool (or combination of tools) to use in the broad evaluation of territorial investments in Romania. While it does not exhaustively cover the methodology of each specific TIA tool, it provides a brief overview of the strengths and weaknesses of each As a first step, it is important to establish what the key features, advantages and disadvantages are offered and differ between existing assessment tools. The three case studies presented in this report were carefully selected through a consultative process with the MDPWA for their relevance to the context of Romania and the Ministry’s responsibilities and ambitions. There is a strong positioning in the case of the Latium regional project as a directly relevant EU project, a good level of alignment for the Kakheti regional development project given the region’s economic level of development and defining characteristics of the region which share considerations for natural environment and heritage, and an acceptable degree of correlation in the case of the Santa Cruz corridor in Bolivia given its focus on poverty and social impact within a very resource-rich environment. Moreover, the examined case studies vary in terms of their scope of interventions, stakeholders, assessors, locations, and angles, providing a number of angles and takeaways to inform the implementation of TIAs. The ex-ante components of the assessments can also provide directions forward in terms of thinking ahead with forecasting in mind, as well as incorporating future policy directions into TIA analyses. Given the overviews and directions provided, what follows is the need for thorough consideration of the extent and depth of the impact assessment to be deployed and resources available, and decision-making around the components to be covered. By virtue of being both multi-dimensional and multiscale, TIAs lend themselves to a number of applications, from policies, programs, and projects. If deployed well, the implementation of a TIA in can help drive forward the culture of evaluation in the Romanian context. 1.2. Objectives and scope The main objective of this RAS is to provide support to MDPWA in its development of an evidence-based decision-making tool for assessing potential territorial impact of public policies and investment programs. As outlined in the legal agreement with the MDPWA, this forms part of Component 2, which comprises the following: 10 (a) Conduct a study of three (3) best practice case studies in relevant EU member states1 that have successfully performed territorial impact assessments and impact forecasting of infrastructure investments; (b) Provide recommendations to MDPWA for the improvement of local development strategies based on the case studies conducted in (a); (c) provide support to MDPWA in its pilot application of the territorial impact assessment tool through the National Program for Local Development, reviewing the results and make recommendations for improvement; and (d) provide recommendations on policy options and pathways to operationalize and implement the territorial impact assessment tool within MDPWA and across other relevant sector ministries. In support of this objective, the current report (Output 2 a) presents the practice of territorial impact assessment with three relevant case studies Structure of the report This report summarizes the findings, conclusions and provides recommendations for implementing a territorial impact assessment approach in Romania, building upon on the 3 case studies presented. The report is structured in four main sections, as follows: • Introduction to TIAs: context and background, definitions, history, and scope of TIAs, rationale for the selection of the case studies presented. • Kakheti Regional Development Project (Georgia) • Latium region 2014-2020 Regional Operational Program (Italy): • Santa Cruz Corridor Connector Project (Bolivia) • Conclusion and Recommendations The report includes in the annexes: the fiches of TIA methods, with some of their relevant conceptual frameworks (Annex 1) as well as the detailed notes results of the case studies particularly for the Georgia Regional Development Program and the Latium 2014-2020 ROP. 1 Following consultation with the client, it was decided that the three case studies could be drawn from a wider global perspective and not all three from the EU environment. The WB team feels that this decision significantly enhances the value of this deliverable. 11 Chapter 2 12 2. About TIA 2.1. Context and background This section presents the definition, types, and use of territorial impact assessments (TIA) as a tool in evidence based policy-making. It provides an overview of current TIA tools which considers their rationale, strengths and weaknesses to help the client make a better-informed decision in selecting which TIA tool to use in the evaluation of territorial investments in Romania. TIA is one of the most recent impact assessment (IA) instruments developed for public policy assessment (PPA), and generally deemed to be the most complex as it is multidimensional. Early forms of TIA models stemmed from the need to extend the scope of policy evaluation of Environmental Impact Analyses (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), which were two mandatory IA procedures. The logic of TIAs is thus largely derived from EIA and SEA, with an extension of the scope of outcomes. Overall, territorial impact assessment has developed from appraising impacts of concrete projects or infrastructure investments to appraising potential impacts of policies – first ex post and then mainly ex ante (Medeiros 2020). Many TIA tools have been developed within the last 15 years. Initially mostly quantitative, top-down models were employed but progressively bottom-up qualitative approaches have been introduced. “Non-explicitâ€? approaches to TIA can also be found in many project or policy assessments when they are multidimensional (e.g. WB’s Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment). The assessment of territorial policy largely evolved in the European context as part and parcel of the European Cohesion Policy, which first found roots in the principle of ‘economic and social cohesion’ introduced in the Single European Act in 1986. Since the launch of the EU’s Cohesion Policy, which has grown to be the most recognized and visible territorial policy, a growing body of literature has emerged evaluating the effectiveness of territorial policy, effectively propelling territorial policy under the microscope in terms of scrutiny (Fratesi 2017). And perhaps rightly so: approximately a third of the EU’s budget was allocated to financial instruments which support cohesion policy over 2014-2020 (32.5%, or about EUR 351.8 billion), which may render the plentiful impact analyses carried out as thoroughly warranted.23 These factors, along with wide-reaching impact of the Cohesion Policy and the high degree of data availability across EU regions (with some important limitations outstanding) have generated a culture of evaluation around territorial policy, which is characterized by a system of appraisal, monitoring and evaluation covering EU-funded regional development interventions (Bachtler and Wren 2006). As such, conclusions on the effectiveness of Cohesion Policy have been found to vary widely (Fratesi 2017). TIAs have become synonymous with territorial cohesion. Over the years, the EC has funded numerous initiatives through ESPON to develop, implement and refine the conceptual frameworks of TIA, which has resulted in a bulk of the work that has advanced the conceptual frameworks and applications of TIA, with its first handbook providing practical guidance on TIA published in 2013. 4 That said, TIA tools developed under the ESPON auspices tend dominate the landscape of European tools given the financing dedicated to drive, develop, implement, and intensify TIA processes, experiences, regulations and instruments in the European context. European TIA tools have been produced outside the ESPON auspices, such as the TARGET_TIA. However, formal 2 The 2014 Cohesion Report by the European Commission counted 821 evaluations of ERDF programs and 721 evaluations of ESF programs for the 2007-2013 programming period. 3 European Commission, 2021. Glossary: Cohesion Policy. https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/policy/what/glossary/c/cohesion- policy#:~:text=Cohesion%20policy%20is%20the%20European,its%20Member%20States%20and%20regions.&t ext=174)%2C%20the%20EU's%20cohesion%20policy,level%20of%20development%20between%20regions. 4 ESPON, 2013. Territorial Impact Assessment of Policies and EU Directives. https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/TIA_Printed_version.pdf 13 TIA has mostly been an academic exercise with only rare real applications by countries on actual policies . TIA tools have been developed and refined in numerous academic evaluations; their use by policy-makers and practitioners remains slightly less prevalent (Medeiros 2020). TIA is a European concept (vs. PPA in general which emerged in the US), but its usefulness is not limited to European policy-making. The European context is replete with TIA examples in action, with numerous TIAs being rolled out to assess the impact of directives regarding habitats, renewable energy and Energy Performance of Buildings, and more. Outside the European context, a broader canon of IAs may reside as TIA. Even if not explicitly labeled as TIAs, many institutions assess the differences in impact of projects/programs/policies depending on the territory where they are deployed. The World Bank extensively engages in multi-dimensional analyses on the impact of sectoral policies and interventions, which includes Poverty and Social Impact Analyses (PSIA) and Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA), as this report covers. Economic geography literature also provides interesting frameworks to conceptualize TIAs. Broad consideration on the impact of infrastructure investments across regions was given in the World Bank’s World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography, which squarely frames economic integration within policy debates on urbanization, territorial development and regional integration and stresses the centrality of geography in the instruments of integration, spatially connective infrastructure and spatially targeted interventions.5 2.2. Determining need for and defining a TIA Defining a TIA What is territorial impact? “The territorial impact is the final, likely effect of a given EU policy or directive as a product of exposure and regional sensitivity. The impact can be direct or indirect along specific cause and-effect logical chains.â€? ESPON 2013. Territorial impact is considered to be any impact on a given geographically defined territory, which results from the implementation of a policy, program, or project. A territorial impact assessment (TIA) can thus be defined as a tool which helps identify impacts of a given policy/program/project in a given territory in the main dimensions of territorial development; which include at least : (i) economic competitiveness; (ii) social and cultural cohesion; (iii) environmental sustainability; (iv) territorial governance; and (v) spatial planning. Territory is a multidimensional and multiscale notion. As such, a territorial impact analysis (TIA) can take on varying dimensions and levels of analysis. TIA can be multidimensional and multiscale, though commonly backed by a unified procedure. TIA tends to involves several interrelated elements (social, economic, environmental, social, governance, spatial planning, etc.) and can be analyzed from local to worldwide scales. Regardless of the dimensions and scales selected, the overall general procedure of a TIA can be broadly summarized in four main stages: screening, scoping, assessment and evaluation (Figure 1).6 Other variants of TIA processes also consider Monitoring/Capacity- Building interchangeably with Evaluation within the TIA process and consign both assessment and evaluation to the same step of the process. 5 World Bank. 2009. World Development Report 2009 : Reshaping Economic Geography. World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5991 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. 6 ESPON (2012). Territorial Impact Assessment of Policies and EU Directives: A practical guidance for policymakers and practitioners based on contributions from ESPON projects and the European Commission. https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/TIA_Printed_version.pdf 14 Figure 1. Four-level procedure of a Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA) Source: (Miklavcic, Weaver 2005) Consolidating the scope of a TIA is a key question that should be determined from the outset. In that respect, the following guiding questions can be useful in determining the scope of a TIA. Table 1. Questions to consider when determining the scope of a TIA Questions to consider when determining the scope of a TIA WHEN: Ex-ante? Ex-post? both? • Initial focus on ex post TIAs of EU directives (e.g. SASI model) • Then modelling tools developed for ex ante TIAs starting 2008 (e.g. TEQUILA and EATIA models) • Some models can be applied to both ex ante and ex post assessments • But ex ante assessments usually cannot be disconnected form ex post assessments of policy/program/project already implemented in the same sector WHAT: Policies? Programs? Projects? What scale? • Formal/explicit TIAs are mainly carried out on EU policies at the national and regional levels but other assessments, which can be considered as “non-explicitâ€? TIAs*, have focused on more circumscribed interventions (e.g. projects) • TIA is not always needed : it depends on the nature of the intervention and its geographical scope (see graph in Annex) • The larger (size and complexity) the intervention, the more probable a TIA is needed • But the smaller the intervention, the more reliable can be the TIA (lines of causality easier to draw) HOW: What are the existing tools? Top-down or bottom-up? • Many TIA tools have been developed within the last 15 years • Initially mostly quantitative, top-down models but progressively bottom-up qualitative approaches have been introduced • “Non-explicitâ€? approaches to TIA can be found in many project or policy assessments when they are multidimensional (e.g. WB’s Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment) 15 What to measure By virtue of being both multi-dimensional and multiscale, TIAs lend themselves to a number of applications, from policies, programs, and projects. The first order of action is thus to determine the policy/program/project level to be assessed. Identification of this allows one to then determine whether a TIA is even needed. In light of this, a first anticipatory question is whether a TIA is needed in the evaluation of a policy, project, or program (Figure 2). If the option is made to conduct a TIA, a first issue which the researcher must then address when conducting an impact assessment is identification of the dependent variable(s), that is, the variable(s) that the policy is expected to affect. Figure 2. Determining whether a TIA is needed Consideration of the geographical scale of analysis is a key issue in assessing the impact of territorial policy. In the case of the Cohesion Policy in the EU context, the common choice of the NUTS 2 level of analysis is driven by the fact that it is the most meaningful scale of analysis (as most regional programs are rolled out at this level), as well as the preponderance of data at this level (Fratesi 2017). In some countries NUTS 2 are meaningful as they demarcate actual administrative boundaries (Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden), while in others they are merely artificial statistical units (Germany, Ireland, UK). While an increasing number of evaluations are taking place at the NUTS 3 level, the data are not as detailed and do not go as far back in time. Further, the effects of policy can spread outside boundaries and affect neighboring regions whether through growth spillovers and other externalities, both positive or negative. Territorial sensitivity to impact also poses a particular concern which determines the actual impact of a policy/program/project. Territorial sensitivity describes how single territories/regions are subject and evaluate impacts in specific exposure fields, due to their socio-economic and geographical characteristics and to the social values and priorities they are likely to show (Figure 3). 16 Figure 3. Territorial impact combining exposure with sensitivity Source: ESPON (2013). When to measure the impact of a policy Literature on TIAs had an initial focus on ex post TIAs of EU directives (e.g. SASI model). Then modelling tools developed for ex ante TIAs starting from 2008 (e.g. TEQUILA and EATIA models). Some models can be applied to both ex ante and ex post assessments, as will be discussed in the next section. However, ex ante assessments usually cannot be disconnected form ex post assessments of policy/program/project already implemented in the same sector. The relevant timeframe for which to measure impact varies across policies, with some displaying more immediate effects than others. For example, the effect of some interventions may be more immediately apparent, as in the case of investment human capital, which tends to be noticeable and persistent only after several years, while other priorities such as rural development may display more immediate effects (Rodríguez- Pose and Fratesi (2004). The understanding of how to conceptualize the integration TIAs into national administrative frameworks has been advanced through an ongoing culture of employing TIAs to the evaluation of territorial policy in the academic sector within EU countries (Figure 4). 17 Figure 4. Integration of TIA framework into national framework Source: GolobiÄ? et. al. (2015), applying the TIA framework to the Slovenian administrative framework. 2.3. TIA Models and their Characteristics This section briefly presents some of the mainstream TIA tools commonly deployed in the European context. As a first step, it is important to establish what the key features, advantages and disadvantages are offered and differ between existing assessment tools. This is crucial, as if there were no differences at all, instruments could simply be merged. As a general rule, it is likely that the more similarities there are, the better the chances for integration of TIA would be. This section does not exhaustively cover the methodology of each specific TIA tool. Rather, it provides a brief overview of the strengths and weaknesses of each to help the client make a better-informed decision in selecting which TIA tool may be most viable or appropriate to use in evaluations of territorial investments in Romania. 18 The European Commission’s Handbook on Territorial Impact Assessment provides a full review of the mainstream methodologies of TIA tools, which are only partially covered here. Key aspects of mainstream TIA methodologies employed in the European context are summarized in Table 2. For more detailed descriptions and some of their framework, see Annex 1 TIA Methodologies. Table 2. Characteristics of TIA tools Tool Qualitative Quantitative Ex ante Midterm Ex post SASI X X TEQUILA X X STeMA-TIA X X X X EATIA X X X TARGET_TIA X X X X LUISA X X RHOMOLO X X X QUICK_CHECK X X X TIA In line with the literature, it must be stressed that there is no ‘quick and dirty’ way to properly assess territorial impact (Medeiros 2020). The ESPON Quick_Check TIA tool, which aims to provide a ‘quick and dirty’ ex-ante analysis of the potential impact of EU legislation, policies and directives while being as simple and user-friendly as possible, is actually omitted from The Handbook of Territorial Assessment on the grounds that it merely presents a simplified first step in obtaining ex ante scores of EU directives (Medeiros, 2020). It enables users to use the technical framework with the flexibility for individuals to define individual indicators suited to describe exposure to policy proposals. However, it is intended to serve as a discussion basis for further analysis and should not be considered as a viable option in itself among full-scale evaluation methods. Large-scale analyses at the broader regional level are also possible using less mainstream methodologies such as LUISA and RHOMOLO, which have been used to provide regionalized assessment of EU Cohesion Policy. See their description in Error! Reference source not found. . Moreover, TIAs can be employed to provide foresight and simulation exercises. Advances of TIA methodologies by ESPON 7 The ESPON programme made considerable contributions to developing TIA methodologies at European level. The ESPON TEQUILA methodology is one of the most comprehensive methodologies covering all dimensions and considering all components of the territorial cohesion concept. Results are based on quantitative assessments of forecast models performed by external experts and expert judgements collected via interviews. The comprehensive results of the TEQUILA methodology limit the methods’ usefulness for policy makers. The EATIA methodology aims to overcome this challenge by adopting a rather bottom-up approach using predominantly qualitative inputs from participatory approaches. The TIA-CBC developed by the ESPON programme is a methodology designed for cross-border regions’ programmes. The methodology focuses on desk research and participatory approaches allowing experts to verify and adapt the findings of the desk research. Compared with TEQUILA, both the EATIA and the TIA-CBC considerably simplify the assessment and allow policy makers at national, regional and local levels to be directly involved. They are, however, less comprehensive and robust than TEQUILA. 7 ESPON 2021. State of the Art and Challenges ahead for Territorial Impact Asessments 19 TARGET_TIA The TIA Handbook describes the TARGET_TIA tool as a “complete, flexible and sound territorial impact assessment toolâ€?. TARGET_TIA was developed outside the sponsorship of ESPON, with an aim of assessing not only ex ante, but also the ex post impacts of projects, programs and policies, in a more robust way (Medeiros, 2020). The TARGET_TIA is a hybrid model thus highly flexible and able to assess both ex ante and ex post, qualitative and quantitative outcomes, although for ex-ante evaluation only the qualitative assessment is viable. Some of its key strengths are that it allows to assess multiple dimensions which extend beyond those which are socio-economic environmental, but also all territorial development dimensions. It also has a facilitated application, which impacts elements all together in excel spreadsheet with predefined formula and coefficients. Weaknesses are found in the fact that the identification of concrete goals and related dimensions can be challenging, especially in territorial cohesion policies. Further, it may be difficult to select territorial scale and time frame in relation with statistic indicators availability. The assessment can also be financially costly due to the large data collection, especially if an ex-post evaluation is chosen. Finally, the process can become overly lengthy for non-experienced evaluator SASI The SASI model is one of the earliest TIA models, which is mostly computer based, quantitative, top down and used to assess ex post outcomes. Its intention is to provide comparative scenarios of spatial development of the territory of the EU. Its methodology consists of the comparison of scenarios of the spatial development of the territory of the European Union produced with the socioeconomic SASI model under different assumptions about the quality of regulation of EU territorial policies in the receiving EU member states. For forecasting regional economic development, the SASI model applies an extended production function with regional economic structure, regional productivity, accessibility, availability of labor, R&D investments, population density and availability of developable land as explanatory variables. In addition, it uses a migration function in which net migration is forecast with regional wage level and quality of life as explanatory variables. To take account of the slow process of economic structural change, the economic variables are lagged by five years. However, the model requires a high degree of technical expertise, making it more appropriate as an external assessment rather than one to be deployed by policy makers and practitioners. TEQUILA The TEQUILA TIA tool was the first TIA tool developed by Roberto Camagni through ESPON financing. Initiated in 2002, presented in ESPON’s 2006 handbook on assessing territorial policies. The TEQUILA TIA tool introduced crucial elements for properly assessing the main impacts of policies, such as an ‘evaluation policy impact score’ (from negative to positive impacts), as well as the ‘policy intensity’ and the ‘regional sensibility’ evaluation parameters. The TEQUILA ESPON TIA tool was primarily designed to assess ex ante impacts of EU directives: that said, it is not designed to handle ex post impacts of policies. Insofar as it addresses ex ante assessments, the TEQUILA ESPON TIA tool is well designed, with a comprehensive rationale and formula, and with appropriate evaluation elements such as ‘regional sensibility’ and ‘policy intensity’ . STeMA-TIA The STEMA-TIA is a computer-based method that is both quantitative and qualitative, top down, and capable of assessing ex post and ex ante outcomes. Development of the most recent STeMA-TIA 3.0 methodology has involved d over three years of research and 60 researchers, national and regional policy/decision-makers, stakeholders, and practitioners. Indicators are organized in 4 complex matrices that, thanks to a pairwise test, find the synthetic value of the Determinants built on EU2020 Strategy pillars (i.e. Sustainable, Inclusive and Smart Growth, with the addition of Resources and Funds). The model can be used both in ex-ante and ex-post monitoring and evaluation phases and covers regional (NUTS 2) and sub-regional level (NUTS 3). 20 EATIA The EATIA model uses a qualitative, bottom-up approach to examine both ex ante and ex post outcomes. Its intention is to assess the potential territorial impacts of European draft directives and to support their implementation processes. It has been used to assess outcomes related to employment, Investment in research and development, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable Energy, energy efficiency, educational attainment, poverty and social exclusion. It poses the particular advantage of having a highly participatory methodology, which allows the involvement of national, regional and local departments responsible for spatial planning. However, if intended to assess Territorial Cohesion in its entirely, the EATIA model does not define all dimensions and components of Territorial Cohesion as such. SEA, PSIA, and SECHSA Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) are generally used for regional programs consisting of multiple projects or for sector-wide programs, development policies and plans (relevant SEA referred as Sectoral Environmental Assessment). SEAs focusing on regional programs as such are sometimes also referred to as Regional Environmental Assessments. The World Bank sourcebook on Regional Environmental Assessments (REAs) enumerates several of their practical benefits: Table 3. Benefits of Regional Environmental Assessments (REAs) Purposes of Regional Environmental Assessments: Regional EAs are desirable when a number of development activities are planned or proposed for a relatively localized geographic area. They serve a number of useful purposes, for example: • definition of study areas in terms which make environmental sense; • selection of sustainable development patterns from alternatives in a region under development pressure, or being programmed for development for the first time; • identification of cumulative impacts of different activities and design or implementation schedule changes and other measures to avoid or mitigate them; • identification of environmental interactions or conflicting demands on resources among projects in which the impacts of one project may reduce the benefits of another, and of measures to avoid such a result; • formulation of criteria for environmentally sustainable development in the region, including treatment of environmentally sensitive areas and resources, site selection criteria, design criteria, region-specific measures to mitigate adverse impacts, and land-use planning guidelines; and • examination of policy alternatives and institutional elements needed for achieving sustainable development in the region. Source: World Bank 2012. Georgia Regional Development Program. SECHSA Report. A sectoral EA can be used to examine the cumulative impacts of multiple projects planned in the same sector. 8 Sectoral EAs usually address the mixture of projects proposed for the next few years. They may address several large - category A projects together, or a number of small projects that may not warrant EAs individually. When applied in this way, sectoral EAs have a comparable relationship to project-specific EAs. They can, in some cases, substitute for project-specific EAs, by producing guidelines and criteria for the design and implementation of projects in the sector. More often, they will result in identification of the major environmental issues in the sector and development of a data base, enabling project-specific EAs to proceed more expeditiously. A variant of this application, often called a “Programmatic EAâ€?, is the use of a sectoral EA to assess the impacts of a sector- 8 World Bank 2012. Georgia Regional Development Program. SECHSA Report. 21 wide program. These are programs that will be replicated at a variety of locations, and for which the impacts are more or less the same at any location. The other purposes of sectoral EAs are somewhat different: review of the environmental impacts of sector investment alternatives. Methods such as Poverty and Social Impact Analyses (PSIA) and Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA) stems from traditional Strategic Environmental Assessment, with extended components to suit the desired evaluation themes of the regional development programs. These methods can typically be applied at both the program and the project levels. For further details on the TIA methods presented, consult the fiche of each methodology in Annex 1 and the Handbook on TIA Methodologies. This report now turns to the presentation of three relevant case studies which ran TIA methods to assess the project impact. 2.4. Rationale for the selected case studies The case studies presented in this report were selected through a consultative process with the MDPWA. They are coherent with the SIDD and take into consideration its vision, objectives, and priorities, but with different levels of correlation. The methods applied in the case of Georgia and Bolivia sit more loosely within the cannon of typical European TIA methods as defined and employed by ESPON and European academic researchers, while that of Latium is strongly positioned within European TIA tools deployed (albeit predominantly within the Italian academic context). There is a strong positioning in the case of the Latium regional project as a directly relevant EU project, a good level of alignment for the Kakheti regional development project given the region’s economic level of development and defining characteristics of the region which share considerations for natural environment and heritage, and an acceptable degree of correlation in the case of the Santa Cruz corridor in Bolivia given its focus on poverty and social impact within a very resource-rich environment. The examined case studies vary in terms of their scope of interventions, stakeholders, assessors, locations, and angles, providing a number of angles and takeaways to inform the implementation of TIAs. The overall differences which help to ensure a wide coverage of considerations are namely: • Different interventions: A large program, a project (with multiple investments), and an infrastructure • Different stakeholders : EU, WB, national authorities, regional authorities • Different assessors : internal vs. external • Different locations : EU, EU neighbor, Latin America • Different angles : top-down vs. participative, macro vs. regional/local, quantitative vs. qualitative, transversal/integrated vs. sectoral, etc. 22 Chapter 3 23 3. Kakheti Regional Development Project, Georgia 3.1. Summary The Regional Development Project of Georgia ran from 2012-2017 with a budget of USD 75 million (of which USD 60 million World Bank loan and USD 15 million national public contribution). The project’s objective was to improve infrastructure services and institutional capacity to support the development of tourism based economy and cultural heritage circuits in the Kakheti region. Given the region’s rich historical, cultural and environmental features, the project maintained a particular focus on protecting cultural heritage and a leading concern for the natural environment. The impact of this project was assessed through Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA), a derivation of the traditional SEA model with added dimensions to expand the thematic considerations of the model to fit the project’s scope. This exercise showcases the adaptability and room to improvise and expand the scope of assessments to fit the parameters of development project. 3.2. Region description Map 1. Kakheti region of Georgia The Kakheti region is the easternmost province of Georgia, and borders Russia and Azerbaijan. It comprises eight administrative districts and municipalities/local self-governments and about 404,000 inhabitants, about 9 percent of the total population, making it Georgia‘s fourth largest region. Kakheti boasts rich historical significance, while being an important center of wine-producing and tourism. Kakheti is recognized worldwide as a region of ancient culture, marked by the presence of Stone Age residences and residing on the Great Silk Road. The region is also home to three protected areas: Tusheti in the north, Lagodekhi in the center, and Vashlovani in the south. Tusheti has preserved its unique cultural heritage, traditions and ceremonies over the years. With respect to GDP per capita, Kakheti is considered a lagging region and below the country average . In 2010, Kakheti‘s Gross Value Added per capita represented only about 60 percent of Georgia national average. Kakheti has not undergone any significant transformation of its economy. The poverty rate in Kakheti is 25 percent, which is slightly above the Georgia average of 24 percent. Other poverty indicators such as poverty depth, severity, and incidence are also higher than the Georgia averages. The unemployment rate in Kakheti is 11 percent, which is below Georgia average of 16 percent and Tbilisi‘s rate of 30 percent. This relatively low unemployment rate stems from the rural character of the region, with intensive inclusion of the population in agricultural self-employment and non-paid employments. There is significant development potential in its tourism sector, but it is constrained by several challenges . which include need for urban renovations and improving the quality of municipal infrastructure in key cultural centers (Telavi, Kvareli, and Dartlo); limited hotel capacity; lack of investor information and communications and cooperation among investors; and Inadequate service skills and limited proficiency in foreign languages. 3.3. Project description The Kakheti Regional Development Project consists of 2 major components: Infrastructure Investment and Institutional Development. The project’s structure and sub-components are presented in Figure 5. 24 Figure 5. Structure of the Georgia Regional Development Project Source: Reconstruction based on project appraisal document. As is consistent in the project design phase, this project bult upon several key lessons learned from past World Bank experience. Considerations in the project design phase covered: i) the need for an integrated approach that that uses funds effectively to maximize the competitiveness, profitability, economic impact and value added at each link in the chain that delivers a product or service; ii) recognizing the potential for historic sections of cities and cultural heritage villages to promote economic development; iii) the renewal of central cities to encourage an upward spiral in development and investment, with a view towards indirectly recouping the cost of investments through governments can indirectly recoup the cost of investments from increased taxes from properties, personal income, profits and VAT, and property sales‘ transaction fees; and iv) maintaining strong consultations with stakeholders. As concerns ex ante economic and financial analyses, the project benefits of investments were expected to be significant on economic activity in the region, which are enumerated below. For further figures of estimated economic impacts, see in Annex 3). • Increase in tourists, overnight stays and spending • Increase in number and profitability of economic enterprises • Property and rental value appreciation • Temporary job creation On the social dimension, the project was anticipated to have several positive impacts which include generating employment, building productive capital, and improving infrastructure and transport connections. In the long term, significant benefits could materialize through urban gentrification in Telavi and Kvareli, and influx of investors and migrants to new economic opportunities. Some limited negative social impacts entail of temporary inconveniences to local population during construction (dust, noise, limited access to areas, safety risks), and in the long-term, an increased inflow of visitors to the area. More broadly, the new developments could also affect the local population by encouraging them to sell their properties and leave the area, which 25 could disrupt the social cohesion of neighborhoods, and compromise the authenticity of live culture and traditions. The above-mentioned social concerns and anticipated impacts figure prominently in the design of the subprojects and the measures to address potential long-term impact, integrated as part of Project preparation. These are assessed and substantiated in studies and analysis, such as the SECHSA. This Is accompanied by two complementary studies: the Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) for Kakheti Regional Development Program, and TA on Georgia Kakheti Cultural Heritage Tourism, which also serve to inform further poverty reduction measures, as well as intuitional measures to strengthen the management practice of cultural heritage sites in a sustainable manner. The SECHSA is presented as the primary TA tool implemented in the following section. Environmental and cultural concerns regard the natural habitats and heritage present within the region. As the project involves financing of physical works with possible environmental and social impacts, this triggered the operational procedure on Environmental Assessment. The project’s proximity to cultural heritage sites also lead to risks given the potentially negative impacts ensuing from the development of infrastructure in and around historical settlements, thus inducing a procedure on physical cultural resources. To address and assess these risks, the SECHSA provides an assessment of the sufficiency of the systems in place to meet induced development impacts (Figure 6). These systems particularly concern the supervision of project implementation by the Municipal Development Fund Georgia and Georgia Agency for Culture Heritage Preservation (ACHP), and the subsequent turnover to the ACHP to oversee the management of the cultural heritage sites in compliance with the laws and regulations stipulated by the state beyond the life of the Project. For the detailed list of assigned responsibilities of project activities by institution, see Table 19 in Annex 2. Figure 6. Implementation and Institutional Arrangements for the Georgia Regional Development Project Source: Reconstruction based on project appraisal document. 3.4. SECSHA Assessment Methodology and Results Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) are generally used for regional programs consisting of multiple projects or for sector-wide programs, development policies and plans (relevant SEA referred as Sectoral Environmental Assessment). In this case study presented, SECHSA is applied at both the program and the project 26 levels to support investment in sustainable tourism and other business development and to exclude or discourage investors interested in exploitative projects for short-term gain. The SECHSA provides an ex ante assessment of the sufficiency of the above systems in place to meet induced development impacts. It serves as a framework document that should be used to ensure proper management of this complex program and protection and sustainable management of the ecological/natural history and cultural heritage asset; the objective of the SECHSA is summarized in Table 4. The SECHSA report also provides recommendations for a) the development of detailed environmental and social assessment and impact mitigation documents for the specific investments, and b) institutional arrangements for the implementation and environmental and social sustainability perspective to regional development strategies/planning/ decision making processes. Component 2 of the Project would support the capacity building of the MDF and the ACHP for carrying out these activities. With a particular view to the systems in place, the SECHSA has a strong consideration for the legal and regulatory framework. Table 4. Objective of the SECHSA Report for the Georgia Regional Development Project Objective of the SECHSA Report (i) general overview of the natural and physical environment in the project area (ii) potential direct impacts of the main types of the project interventions on the environment, cultural heritage, and social strata of Kakheti, as well as potential indirect, long term and induced development impacts of tourism development in the region (iii) legal and regulatory framework applicable for mitigation of the potential risks associated with the project implementation (iv) existing institutional set-up for coordinating, regulating, and enforcing policies and legislation pertaining management of environmental, cultural, and social aspects of the project implementation (v) assessment of the sufficiency of the above systems in place and analysis of gaps and weaknesses (vi) recommendations for the development of detailed environmental and social assessment and impact mitigation documents for the specific investments under the project, as well as (vii) recommendations on institutional arrangements for the project implementation and contributing environmental and social sustainability perspective to regional development strategies/planning/decision making processes Source: Georgia Regional Development Project. Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA). Consultations with affected populations and stakeholder engagement were carried out extensively from the very initial stage of project preparation. Involvement of the local communities residing in Kakheti started at the stage of SECHSA, which included consultations on the project design and its implications for the natural environment, cultural heritage, and social conditions of the groups of population. The draft report of the SECHSA was discussed in stakeholder engagement and public consultations in focus group formats with representatives of key environment NGOs in Georgia, local and regional stakeholders, professionals of various academic fields, and elected local council members as well as executive council members, representing all 8 municipalities in Kakheti. The process was foreseen incorporate the feedback from these meetings into the final version of the report. Table 5. Actors and beneficiaries of the Georgia Regional Development Project Classification Actors Beneficiaries • Population of the Kakheti region in rural areas Stakeholders • Municipalities and businesses of the region • Potential future investors and their prospective employees 27 Classification Actors • NGOs active in the fields of sustainable development and preservation of the national’s cultural heritage • Georgian Orthodox Church • Municipal Development Fund of Georgia (MDF) Implementing entity • Municipal Development Fund of Georgia (MDF) Project design and • National Government of Georgia establishment of institutional set-up for implementation Source: Constructed from the Georgia Regional Development Project. Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA). Analysis of alternatives The SECHSA provides three scenario analyses for the proposed sector which also explore alternative geographic and management focus. These scenarios were developed to outline potential direct and impacts of the project on cultural heritage, natural and social environment. They introduce varying degrees of government intervention, and also include a counterfactual to assess what could happen if no action is taken. Table 6. Scenario Analyses of sectoral interventions with alternative geographic and management considerations Source: Constructed from the Georgia Regional Development Project. Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA). Methodological procedure of the SECHSA for the Georgia Regional Development Project9 The initial analysis at the inception phase of SECHSA considered the project information as well as the relevant strategic and policy documents to understand clearly the policy, geographical and environmental frames, conceptual design of the project and its components, legal and administrative frames. Further deepened studies were focused on collection and analysis of baseline data regarding natural and social environment and cultural heritage within the zone of project impact, identification of most sensitive receptors, and analysis of potential impacts related to different scenarios of tourism development. Baseline data collection included extensive overview of available literature and resources of the National Statistics Office of Georgia as well as consultations with the professionals of various fields of expertise, representatives of several line entities of the central and local governments, and non-governmental organizations. The analytical framework chosen for the purpose of 9 Georgia Regional Development Project. Strategic Environment, Cultural Heritage and Social Assessment (SECHSA). 28 this SECHSA is based on the tourism growth scenarios relevant to the actual tourism development policy being implemented. Carrying capacity analysis method was chosen as a main discourse for further analysis of impacts. SECHSA provides methodology for screening and selection of subprojects to be financed under the project and private business proposals to be stimulated by improving investment climate through provision of external infrastructural elements. Eligibility Criteria are provided to screen out proposals which are unacceptable due to their high risks for the natural environment, cultural heritage, and social conditions of the affected population. Criteria for Selecting Preferable Projects allow priority setting among eligible proposals based on their friendliness to the environment, including use of clean technologies, reviewable energy, elements of green architecture, promotion of nature tourism, etc. Methodological guidance is provided also for detailed assessment of the expected environmental and social impacts of the subprojects selected for the project funding, environmental management planning of such subprojects and developing monitoring schemes for tracking implementation of the prescribed mitigation measures. Environmental, Cultural Heritage and Social Baseline and Sensitive Receptors The SECHSA conducted a thorough review of all background documents which served to inform several baseline assessments. From there, twenty one local spatial sections representing the five major complexes were identified and mapped as ecological receptors sensitive to project impacts. Sensitive receptors are mostly medium value habitats located around the major tourist circuits, while the most valuable habitats are located remotely. All the protected areas were considered as sensitive receptors, as smaller cluster of eco-tourists still may have indirect impact on these areas, targeted as eco-tourist destination. Sensitivity of ecological receptors was estimated based on complex analysis of several criteria: • Ecological value of the receptor (habitat supporting biodiversity; existence of red list species; recreational or aesthetic value of landscapes etc.) • Existence of the receptor within the project impact zone • Vulnerability of the receptor against project related direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts. The analyses on the condition of cultural heritage took a qualitative approach , taking into consideration their legal status, function, physical condition, arranged works, current and future work plans, and what has to be done. The tourism activities were assessed using a SWOT analysis which typically identified threats stemming from high demand of tourists which may lead to damage of cultural heritage and destruction of local community. Results The alternative selected for the Project implementation is Scenario 1, which is based on the integrated geo- tourism development approach comprising multi-sectoral interventions, managed vertical investments, coordinated elaboration of tourist circuits and destination sites, targeted support to cost efficient and environment-friendly tourist packages, and protection of local communities and cultural heritage through promotion of responsible tourism. Scenarios 2 and 3 are rejected due to their high risks to sustainability of economic development supported and/or induced by the project implementation as well as to the benefits for the local population. At the same time, these scenarios are likely to produce higher negative impacts on the natural environment, cultural heritage, and social conditions of local population. The assessment closes with a full list of assessed impacts and recommendations for their mitigation which are captured in Table 20 within Annex 2. 3.5. Key Take-aways & Conclusions The Georgia Regional Development Project showcases an example of mainstreaming cultural heritage, natural environment and social outcomes into a territorial impact assessment. The assessment engages in a deep qualitative assessment of the status of cultural heritage sites as part of its analysis. This is supplemented by 29 environmental baseline conditions which comprise as assessment of hazardous geological processes, nature reserves, protected areas, and biodiversity. Following, it takes a view towards local economic development with a socioeconomic analyses component which considers healthcare and education, economic activity. Having taken stock of the natural and social baseline conditions, it then uses these to inform that anticipated environmental, cultural heritage and social direct and indirect impacts and mitigation strategy. The case incorporates a number of forward-looking elements in the project design and consideration of risk elements. Moreover, the case also advances consistent mitigation measures to accompany the identified risks in an upfront and forward-looking way. It advances a longer term vision of risk mitigation which includes development of master plans and zoning for regional development within the frames of the Law of Georgia on the Spatial Planning and Urban Development (2005), enhancing utilities and other public services, and strengthening governance at the regional and municipal levels – which is applicable to regional development policy in Kakheti as well as in other regions nationwide. 3.6. Recommendations The application of the SECHSA to the Georgia Regional Development Project offers a number of insights and take-aways to inform the implementation of a TIA. A review of the project by the World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) extracted three key lessons from the project which can serve to inform other TIAs. These are namely around:10 • Developing a deep understanding of local context. The case presents an extensive look into the Kakheti region which stresses the importance of preserving cultural and natural heritage, and stock-taking of assets in a thorough and comprehensive manner. • Designing and maintaining flexible implementation plans. The case incorporates a number of forward- looking elements in the project design and consideration of risk elements, with embedded considerations to adapt actions should scenarios not materialize as anticipated. The case employs a far- reaching analysis into both direct and indirect impacts, both categories of which are covered by an accompanying mitigation strategy. Moreover, the case also advances consistent mitigation measures to accompany the identified risks in an upfront way. • Develop appropriate methodology on M&E for tourism development projects. Given that the impact of a regional development is likely to increase visitors, certain risks comes which can destabiilize and threaten the existing natural environment or the social and cultural fabric of communities. In order to address this, the project aims to support responsible tourism and development of tourist products for the target clientele interested in history, culture, fine arts, quality wine, and adventurous natural settings, which tend to create less social pressure and bring more benefits to the host areas as compared to other types of tourism. 10 World Bank, 2018. Implementation Completion Report (ICR) Review (ICRR0021299). 30 Chapter 4 31 4. Latium region 2014-2020 Regional Operational Program, Italy 4.1. Summary The Latium region 2014-2020 ERDF ROP aimed to boost the competitive advantage of the region (namely in research and development), to create employment in activities with high added value and to improve the competitiveness of the regional economy.11 The program’s funding of EUR 484.5 million was targeted according to the aims of regional specialization strategy, with a focus on the region’s R&D, innovation and ICT use ; the diversification and competitiveness of SMEs; and broader energy efficiency and risk prevention in the region. As ROP is an EU planning instrument which also exists in Romania, this case study serves as a comparable EU reference and provides a number of entry points for intervention and consideration. In 2020, an ex ante and ex post evaluation of this Latium 2014-2020 ROP was carried out by academic external evaluators using the latest TIA methodological tools (STeMA 3.0) across the provinces of the Latium region. This exercise took place in the context of a wider application of STeMA to evaluate ROPs across all of Italy’s regions, which assessed over 100 projects in total. Therefore, it also poses an example of TIA’s potential in terms of widespread application to evaluate programs across an entire country, with indicators adapted correspondingly to measure the intended outcomes of each respective program intervention. This evaluation of the Latium 2014-2020 ROP analyzes the differences of regional performance across indicators founded on pillars of the Europe 2020 Strategy for a Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, and an accompanying component on Resources and Funds. Employment of the STeMA-TIA model to the Latium 2014-2020 ROP produced insightful results proving the usefulness and viability of the tool in assessing both ex ante and ex post outcomes across key policy dimensions. However, further development of the tool can be foreseen, as the general application of STeMA- TIA to the Italian case study demonstrated that the monitoring and evaluation of Regional and National Operating Programmes based on spatial and synthetic indicators used in the Programming period 2014-2020 is not yet adequate, and further advances should be considered in for the future 2021-2027 period.12 4.2. Region description Map 2. Lazio region in Italy The Latium (Lazio) region of Italy is positioned in the central region of Italy, hosting the metropolitan region of Rome and its surrounding areas. It encompasses an area of 17,201 km2 and is home to a population of nearly 5.9 million, which makes it the second-most populated region in Italy.13 It serves as the administrative center of the country and benefits from a large concentration of universities, national research bodies which render it a hub of research and innovation in Italy. Lazio contributes 11% of Italy’s national GDP and ranks 6th in terms of GDP per capita among Italy’s regions, placing above the Italian and EU average (see Figure 7 below). The region has a highly service-oriented economy (85% of value-added is service-related, of which 39% is attributable to financial and 11 https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/atlas/programmes/2014-2020/italy/2014it16rfop010 12 Prezioso 2021. Territorial Impact Assessment for evaluation of Territorial Cohesion Policies: the STeMA-TIA 3.0 and social housing in Italy. Regional Studies Association. DOI reference: 10.1080/13673882.2021.00001082 https://regions.regionalstudies.org/ezine/article/stema-tia-3-0-and-social-housing-in- italy/?doi=10.1080/13673882.2021.00001082 13 European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/growth/tools-databases/regional-innovation-monitor/base- profile/lazio#:~:text=Lazio%20is%20a%20region%20of,Tyrrhenian%20Sea%20to%20the%20west.&text=mi)%2 0and%20has%20a%20population,Italy%20(Eurostat%2C%202020 32 insurance, real estate, professional, scientific and technical activities. Though consistently above Italy’s national average, Lazio’s economic activity rate has historically hovered just below the EU average, though it suffered drastically in 2020 (a 7pp hit) (Figure 8). Meanwhile, unemployment has been mostly consistent with national averages, typically 4 pp above the EU average (see Figure 9 below). Figure 7. GDP per capita of Lazio region against EU-27 and Figure 8. Economic activity rate of Lazio region against Italy averages (in EUR per inhabitant) EU-27 and Italy averages Source: Eurostat (NAMA_10R_2GDP) Source: Eurostat (LFST_R_LFP2ACTRC) In line with its focus on research, innovation, education and training, the Lazio region boasts tertiary education attainment rates above the national average, though roughly 5pp below that of the EU (Figure 10). Total expenditures in R&D for the region are higher, though most R&D employment has been widely attributable to the public sector (as of 2011, 4 in 5 positions in R&D were employed in the public sector). This figure is also accompanied by a relatively low level of private R&D investments compared to other regions.14 Particular attention was therefore given to the Latium region as a potential as a driver for development for the rest of the country given its concentration of human capital and geographic advantage, though the concentration of advantages remain restricted within the public sector, with limited spill-over to the local business sector, which lags relatively behind other high-performing areas of the country. Figure 9. Unemployment rate of Lazio region against EU-27 Figure 10. Tertiary education attainment rate of Lazio and Italy averages (%) region against EU-27 and Italy averages (%) Source: Eurostat (LFST_R_LFU3RT) Source: Eurostat (EDAT_LFSE_04) 4.3. Project description The Latium 2014-2020 ROP was backed by a budget of EUR 913 million, of which 50% ERDF grants and 50% national contribution. The project’s main purpose was to boost the competitive advantage of the region 14 European Commission, 2011. Regional Innovation Report: Lazio. 33 (particularly in R&D and innovation), create employment in activities with high added value, and improve the competitiveness of the regional economy. Funding was targeted towards improving the connection of the business network with research and technological institutions and elevating the region’s presence in international research consortiums. It also included components to promote SME diversification and competitiveness and facilitate energy efficiency and risk prevention along the Tiber River. For the 2014-2020 period, funding priorities of the project focused on 5 main priorities, as shown in Figure 5. Figure 11. Funding of Latium 2014-2020 ROP (in millions EUR) LEGEND PA 1 Competitiveness PA 2 Research and innovation PA 3 Sustainability and mobility PA 4 Digital Lazio PA 5 Hydrological risk prevention PA 6 Technical assistance Source: European Commission, ROP Lazio ERDF Programme description Selection of the priority axes started from a strategic view of the region and was accompanied by the explicit indication of mandatory steps necessary to achieve the targets. The program foresaw a number of expected impacts along the lines of boosting competitiveness, research and innovation, sustainability, captured in several key target values, which are shown in Table 7. Table 7. Expected Impacts of the Latium 2014-2020 ROP Expected impacts of the Latium 2014-2020 ROP Investment in over 11.000 SMEs Firms cooperating with R&D institutions: 360 Private investment matching public support in R&D and innovation projects: almost € 95 million Researchers that participate in co-financed projects per year: 110 Population covered by broadband (100 Mbps) services: 562,600 inhabitants in 2018 Decrease of annual primary energy consumption of public buildings (kWh/year): 9,845,000 Population and area benefiting from flood protection measures: 7,000 inhabitants and 50 km2 34 Source: European Commission, ROP Lazio ERDF Programme description. https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/EN/atlas/programmes/2014-2020/italy/2014it16rfop010 The Latium 2014-2020 ROP has components typical of a program under the territorial cohesion policy. Its particular focus zoomed in to four selected areas of the Latium (Lazio) region, as shown in Map 3. Map 3. Selected “inner areasâ€? for pilot strategies in Latium ROP Source: European Commission The broader effects of these interventions were examined at their respective provincial levels within the Latium region, which fall in into the boundaries of those shown in Map 4 as follows: • Lazio 1 – Alta Tuscia – Antica Citta di Castro in Viterbo • Lazio 2 – Monti Reatini in Rieti • Lazio 3 – Monti Simbruni in Rome • Lazio 4 – Valle de Comino in Frosinone 35 Map 4. Provinces of the Latium region Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=748360 4.4. TIA Assessment Methodology and Results An ex ante and ex post evaluation of regional performance within the Latium Region was carried out by external academic evaluators using the STeMA-TIA model.15 The STeMA-TIA model is a Territorial Impact Assessment able to assess the weight of several indicators shared in four determinants founded on pillars of Europe 2020 Strategy for a Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. 16 The fourth one is dedicated to use of funds for financing strategic actions: this evaluation is needed in order to better assess the effectiveness of policy choices in the achievement of strategic results for the territory. Following this logic, the STeMA-TIA model employed considered the impact of the LATIUM 2014-2020 ROP along the following four summative key components of analysis: • Smart Growth • Sustainable growth • Inclusive growth • Resources and funds (level of funding of territorial budgets oriented to the main issues related to Europe 2020 goals.) 15 The STeMA-TIA model was developed and patented by Maria Prezioso. 16 https://ec.europa.eu/eu2020/pdf/COMPLET%20EN%20BARROSO%20%20%20007%20- %20Europe%202020%20-%20EN%20version.pdf 36 Figure 12. TIA Logical Framework of Territorial Cohesion by STeMA Source: Prezioso 2020. Each of the respective determinants above are comprised of 7 sub-categories and ultimately 73 representative indicators. For both ex ante and ex post assessments, the STeMA scoring methodology assigns selected indicators with scores ranging from A to D in terms of performance, with A indicating the highest performance. It then employs a visualization technique to bold letters when indicating a change in ex post situation. The ex ante evaluation aims at assessing the situation of Region within the fourth determinant at t0 moment, that is to say the performance of territory through indicator analysis, before the implementation of politics foreseen in ROP. The ex post evaluation considers the actual outcomes of the Latium ERDF ROP against the same indicators in order to analyze the changes enacted by the applied policy. The resulting scores of the STeMA_TIA are provided in a table format, with accompanying GIS visualizations for the main dimensions. The following section presents the composite results of the main determinants, while the results of a number of selected indicators within the dimensions are provided in the Annex. Smart growth The Latium 2014-2020 ROP aimed to accelerate the development of advanced services enhancing domestic and international technologies and knowledge. In this respect, the Smart growth dimension particularly captures the PA 1: Research, Innovation; PA 2: Digital Latium; and part of PA 3: Competitiveness. Table 8 presents the logical tree from determinants to indicators for the Smart Growth dimension. For the logical trees of the Sustainable, Smart Growth, and Inclusive Indicators, see the section on Conceptual Frameworks of STeMA-TIA 37 Results of the STeMA-TIA provided in Annex 3. Table 8. Logical Tree of Smart Growth Source: Prezioso 2020. In the ex ante evaluation of Smart Growth, the STeMA_TIA tool was applied across nine indicators corresponding to Smart Growth: Internet use, ultra-wide band insight, structure of education to the creation of knowledge, index of innovative dependency, population with tertiary degree, population in life-long learning, R&D infrastructure, and telecommunications and development. The ex ante results of the STeMA-TIA are provided in Table 9. Table 9. STeMA ex ante assessment of Latium Region, Smart Growth determinant Source: Pigliucci, Michele (2020). “Territorial cohesion in Latium Region. A STeMA measurement of Regional Operational Programme ERDF 2014-2020â€? in Territorial Impact Assessment of National and Regional Territorial Cohesion in Italy: Place Evidence and Policy Orientations Towards European Green Deal. Pàtron editore, Bologna. Following, the ex post analysis was conducted to consider the actual impact of the Latium 2014-2020 ROP. The results showed several key variations from the ex ante assessment, namely with better performance in human capital indicators. The ex post results of the STeMA-TIA for the Smart Growth determinant are provided in Table 10. 38 Table 10. STeMA ex post assessment of Latium Region ROP policy choices, Smart Growth determinant Source: Prezioso 2020. Letters in bold shows a change in ex post situation from the ex ante situation. Figure 13 below shows the performance of the ex ante and ex post results of the STeMA in a side-by-side comparison. At the aggregate level, the Latina province shows improved performance in ex post outcomes for the Smart Growth determinant, while the performance of the other provinces at the NUTS 3 level remains relatively constant. The results of the specific indicators for internet in the public body and telecommunications development level are shown in Figure 20 and Figure 21 of Annex 3. 39 Figure 13. SG20 Smart Growth determinant, ex ante and ex post situation Source: Prezioso 2020. Overall, the same processes as shown above were run to obtain the results of the Latium ROP across the determinants of Sustainable Growth, Inclusive Growth, and Resources and Funds. The final results of these are presented in the following sections, while their logic trees and tabular results are shown in Annex 3. 40 Sustainable growth The Sustainable Growth determinant aims to highlight the ability of a territory in reaching the goal of Europe 2020 in building Sustainable Growth for Europe. For the Latium 2014-2020 ROP, this mostly corresponds with PA: In this respect, the Sustainable Growth determinant comprises considerations for sustainable competitiveness, climate change mitigation, and infrastructure sustainability. Some specific indicators within these components include green jobs, patents, fiscal pressure, CO2 emissions, recycling, urban waste, multimodal accessibility, broadband penetration, and energy self-sufficiency. For the full list of indicators under the Sustainable growth determinant, see Table 22 in the Annex. Figure 14. Sustainable Growth Source: Prezioso 2020. 41 Inclusive growth The Inclusive Growth determinant aims to highlight the ability of the territory in reaching the goal of Europe 2020 in building an Inclusive Growth for Europe. It comprises typologies on structural inclusion, education inclusion, social inclusion, and institutional capability (Table 23 in Annex 3). Within these, it considers indicators such as GDP per purchasing power parity, cultural opportunities, students inbound, foreign inclusion, early school leaving, rate of cross-border and regional cooperation, female employment, per-capita consumption, hospitalization, nurseries, capability of education systems, risk of social exclusion, institutional capacity. Figure 15. IG51 Inclusive Growth determinant, ex ante and ex post situation. Source: Prezioso 2020. 42 Resources and funds Analysis of the Resources and Funds determinant examines the correspondence of the level of funding of territorial budgets with the goals of Europe 2020. This comprised an evaluation of published financial statements and the distribution of funds among expenditures. In the case of Latium, findings indicated an orientation towards social spending (quality of life, youth policies, sport and leisure, social policy and the family) over economic development. Transport notably remained identified as a weakness to regional competitiveness. Figure 16. RF19 Resources and Funds determinant, ex ante and ex post situation. Source: Prezioso 2020. 43 4.5. Conclusions Application of the STeMA-TIA model to the Latium 2014-2020 ROP allowed for the identification of policy outcomes along several themes of the Europe 2020 goals. STeMA analysis at Regional and sub-Regional level highlighted how territorial disparities are affecting Territorial Cohesion, and helped in prediction about the future impact of ROP and NOP actions on specific territory’s cohesion, with particular attention to Inner Peripheries, already addressed by a specific National Strategy.17 The application of the STeMA-TIA tool to the Latium 2014-2020 ERDF ROP presents just one case in a context of a nation-wide deployment of the STeMA TIA tool by academic researchers to evaluate ROPs at large across Italy. As a similar EU case, the application of the STeMA 3.0 methodology in Latium and across Italy’s regions showcases the potential of instilling a culture of uniform evaluation to accompany national policies and programs. It also signals the potential to deploy such a tool to analyze territorial impact of policies and programs across regions in the case of Romania if desired. The ex ante component assessment can also provide directions forward in terms of thinking ahead with forecasting in mind, as well as incorporating future policy directions into TIA analyses. The application of STeMA-TIA to the Italian case study demonstrated that the monitoring and evaluation of Regional and National Operating Programmes based on spatial and synthetic indicators used in the Programming period 2014-2020 is not yet adequate, and further advances should be considered in for the future 2021-2027 period, and eventually for the Territorial Plans of the Just Transition Fund. 4.6. Recommendations In light of the application of the STeMA TIA tool, it will be important to identify and harmonize the conceptual assessment framework with sub-components and indicators in accordance with those outlined in the SIDDD. The take-aways show for an ex ante assessment, the TIA should take into consideration: (1) the quantified needs at the beginning of implementation, (2) quantified status of needs based on the already implemented projects and possible contextual changes and (3) types of interventions completed and planned for the 2020-2030 period. It would also be important to consider the desired degree of qualitative analysis to be employed in the TIA. Data availability at the NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 level should not pose significant constraints to the study for the MDPWA; however, selection of indicators in line with the original intended outcomes of the SDDD. Employing a STeMA model could pose a viable assessment option for examining ex ante and ex post territorial outcomes, though it may require more serious academic expertise in its deployment. While a massive roll-out of a tool by the academic sector would certainly accelerate the deployment of a study, it may not be the most feasible or time-sensitive option. If a STeMA 3.0 model is pursued, using the tool would requires access to the patent and training for analysts involved. 17 Prezioso, M., Dini, F., Grand, S., Pigliucci, M., Martellozzo, F. “ Territorial Impact Assessment for evaluation of Territorial Cohesion Policies: the STeMA-TIA 3.0 and social housing in Italy.â€? Regional Studies Association. https://regions.regionalstudies.org/ezine/article/stema-tia-3-0-and-social-housing-in- italy/?doi=10.1080/13673882.2021.00001082 44 Chapter 5 45 5. Santa Cruz Corridor Connector Project, Bolivia 5.1. Summary The Santa Cruz Road Corridor Connector Project in Bolivia is an ongoing project (2017-2021) to improve transport accessibility along the corridor and access to services in the region, with a budget of USD 230 million financed entirely by the World Bank (loan of USD 200 million, credit of USD 30 million). While the project focuses on one single type of infrastructure, namely roads, it stands out for its extensive consideration of many types of impact: economic, social, cultural, etc. Moreover, its spatial location allows for easier lines of causation. Finally, it has been the subject of several separate impact assessments which have been partially integrated a posteriori in the SIS. 5.2. Region description The Santa Cruz Department is the largest and most Map 5. Santa Cruz Department of Bolivia populated department of Bolivia’s nine departments. It is situated in the east, bordering Brazil in the north and east and Paraguay in the south. It comprises 370,621 km2, or approximately one third of Brazil’s total landmass with a population of 3.4 million and 15 provinces within its area. The region ranks first in Bolivia terms of GDP and sub-national Human Development Index (HDI), and holds strategic importance for GDP production, poverty alleviation and connectivity to economic opportunity for the rest of the country.18 The department’s capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, produces one third of Bolivia’s GDP. The region’s economy has been booming in recent years, fueled by its access to natural resources, arable fields, reserves of natural gas. Investments into the region have been pouring in from multinational corporations, real estate developments and tourism. Given Bolivia’s status as a land-locked country which is further challenged by its topography, strategic connectivity has been one of the main priorities of the Bolivian Government for its economic development, with a particular focus on investment planning for the primary road sector. Overall portfolio responsibility for Bolivia's road sector is with the Ministry of Public Works, Services and Housing. Its strategic directions for the primary road network consist of: (a) upgrading the primary road network; (b) preservation of road assets through rehabilitation; and (c) ensuring routine maintenance (World Bank 2016). 5.3. Project description The project development objective (PDO) is to improve transport accessibility along the road corridor between San Ignacio de Velasco and San Jose de Chiquitos. The road corridor between San Ignacio de Velasco and San Jose de Chiquitos in Santa Cruz Department was selected for this proposed Project because of its strategic importance for economic development and poverty alleviation at the national and regional levels. 18 Global Data Lab. Subnational Human Development Index (4.0). https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/shdi/ 46 Table 11. Administrative Areas of Road Upgrading Province Municipality San Ignacio de Velasco José Miguel de Velasco San Miguel de Velasco San Rafael Chiquitos San José de Chiquitos Source: World Bank 2016. The route is situated in an area of significant historical and cultural value, as part of what is commonly referred to as the Missionary Circuit (Circuito Misional), consisting of churches built during the colonial era by Jesuit missions. The region is an important tourist attraction and is visited by tourists from all over the world. In fact, its historical value is such that today the missions, together with their respective villages, are part of the system of cultural heritage sites designated by UNESCO. Upgrading of the road corridor is expected to help improve trade activities, reduce VOCs, develop connectivity between towns, and cultivate a tourist option. The three key project-level results indicators have been selected to measure success in achieving the PDO: (a) Travel time along the project area (hours) (b) Vehicle Operating Cost – Cars (US$/km) (c) Vehicle Operating Cost – Trucks (US$/km) Project Components The project is structured in two components toward strengthening client capacities particularly on financial management, procurement, and contract management. • Component A. Road Upgrading - US$225.05 million (World Bank US$225 million; Borrower US$50,000) • Component B. Technical Studies and Project Management - US$5 million (World Bank US$5 million) Table 12. Project Cost and Financing Percentage of IDA Scale-UP Expenditures to be Category IBRD (US$) Facility Financed (inclusive of Taxes) (1) Goods, works, non-consulting services, 29,925,000 199,500,000 100% consultants’ services, training, and operating costs for the project (2) Front-end fee 75,000 500,000 TOTAL AMOUNT 30,000,000 200,000,000 Source: World Bank 2016. The project’s straightforward design reflects experience of current and previous World Bank -funded projects in the road sector. The project design also considers prior lessons learned from i) operating in countries where limited institutional capacities are identified, and ii) addressing potential risks when engaging in large temporary 47 infrastructure projects where a large influx of workers is expected. These concerns were addressed through offering targeted support and using the Guidance Note on Managing Risks of Adverse Impacts on Communities from Temporary Project Induced Labor Influx. As the proposed Project’s implementing agency, ABC has full responsibility for its technical, fiduciary, M&E, and environmental and social aspects. In consideration for these, a Social Assessment (SA) was done during preparation in which gender and intercultural issues were reviewed as well as an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The details of the Social Assessment are presented in the following section. 5.4. TIA Assessment Methodology and Results Poverty and Social Impact Analysis Given that the project route traversed areas typically frequented by indigenous communities that tend to move frequently to some point along the route (even if they do not live permanently in any part of the route), a Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) was elaborated as part of the preparation for the project. The PSIA was undertaken in consultation with local stakeholders with the aim of assessing the impact of the regional development project specifically on these vulnerable communities. As such, the project offers immense potential to improve accessibility and mobility to road users, ensuring that over 282 villages and towns that are part of the four macro-communities in the area have access to the regional road network and connection beyond to the main highway corridors. (World Bank 2016). The World Bank's Indigenous Peoples Safeguard Policy (OP 4.10) is in accordance with the legal frameworks of the Plurinational State of Bolivia that fully and broadly recognize and protect the rights of indigenous peoples and promote consultation, through international conventions and declarations adopted at the level of law. OP 4.10 contributes to "poverty reduction and sustainable development by ensuring that the development process is carried out with full respect for the dignity, human rights, economy and culture of Indigenous Peoples". It establishes among its requirements that there must be prior, free and informed participation and consultation when a project affects indigenous peoples, and that consultation methods appropriate to the social and cultural values of the communities must be employed. These consultations on the proposed project are carried out throughout the project cycle. In light of this, the 10 criteria proposed by the Inter-institutional Commission on Highly Vulnerable Indigenous Peoples were grouped into 4 criteria applicable to this study (Table 13). Table 13. Grouping of criteria categories on highly vulnerable indigenous peoples It is basically expressed in the partial or total loss of language, social cohesion and power structures. Drug use, suicide and incarceration, violent crimes also Vulnerability by decay of culture reveal the breakdown of the social structure. The loss of cosmogony is taken and destruction of the social fabric into account, i.e. the loss of belief and rituals around beings and precepts of mythical origin that refer to their ethnic identity. Consideration is given to the situation of peoples or segments of peoples who suffer violence in the workplace, on the basis of gender, ethnic affiliation or other factors. This includes aggressions caused by exploitative labor relations on Vulnerability due to physical the part of logging companies, etc., commercial hunters, among others; and cultural aggression employer or paternalistic relations on the part of churches, colonizers (immigrant populations from other regions of the country or other countries). Special attention is given to aggressions against women. This is associated with the possession of living spaces of sufficient size to support itinerant modes of production. The situation of lack of territory for the Living space vulnerability group's material reproduction is evaluated. Aggressions on the territory are taken into account since this endangers their survival by affecting the balance of their natural resources. 48 It is basically expressed in the partial or total loss of language, social cohesion and power structures. Drug use, suicide and incarceration, violent crimes also Vulnerability by decay of culture reveal the breakdown of the social structure. The loss of cosmogony is taken and destruction of the social fabric into account, i.e. the loss of belief and rituals around beings and precepts of mythical origin that refer to their ethnic identity. Minority peoples and at the limit of their biological reproduction possibilities. This takes into account the lack of public services such as education, health, Demographic vulnerability drinking water, electricity and others. This is particularly important among (access to health and basic isolated and initial contact peoples who do not have antibodies to the diseases services) of the larger society, considering that these peoples are especially vulnerable to extremely serious diseases, often as a result of their marginalization. Source: ADMINISTRADORA BOLIVIANA DE CARRETERAS, 2015. Approaches applied to the analysis and interpretation of data An approach of interculturality is applied as a field of analysis in recognition of the diverse realities of the provinces of San Ignacio de Velasco and San José de Chiquitos. This approach serves to question the unidirectional vision of development and promotes the recognition of the readings of multiple realities through which a local balance can be found. That is, it allows the revaluation of the knowledge of the original indigenous peoples without denying the access to and use of modern science and technology. On the other hand, the gender approach makes it possible to clarify the regulation and normalization devices active in the relations of domination between people, groups, classes, ethnic groups within the population as a whole that constitutes a local society. This is fundamental to understand how residual coloniality operates and to aim at decolonial and depatriarchal processes. Table 14. Ethnic composition of the population: San Jose de Chiquitos and San Ignacio de Velasco % BY ETHNIC SAN IGNACIO DE % BY ETHNIC ETHNIC SELF- SAN JOSE DE GROUP IN THE VELASCO GROUP IN THE IDENTIFICATION CHIQUITOS MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY Urban Rural Urban Rural CHIQUITANO/BESIRO 7,131 5,396 44.5% 13,380 19,820 65.04% QUECHUA 287 426 2.53% 481 1,686 4.24% AFROBOL 16 75 0.32% 60 171 0.45% AYMARA/QOLLA 117 54 0.60% 275 84 0.70% AYOREO 15 58 0.25% 4 0 0.007% UNIDENTIFIED 53 265 1.12% 150 1,019 2.28% INDIGENOUS CAMPESINO 29 521 1.95% 322 954 2.49% TOTAL POPULATION 28,1250 inhabitants 51,060 inhabitants BY MUNICIPALITY Source: ADMINISTRADORA BOLIVIANA DE CARRETERAS, 2015. 49 Table 15. Ethnic composition of the population: San Miguel de Velasco and San Rafael de Velasco % BY ETHNIC SAN RAFAEL DE VELASCO % BY ETHNIC ETHNIC SELF- SAN MIGUEL DE GROUP IN THE GROUP IN THE IDENTIFICATION VELASCO MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY Urban Rural Urban Rural CHIQUITANO/BESIRO 3,440 6,138 86.44% 1,463 1,624 50.8% QUECHUA 51 174 2.03% 20 7 0.44% AFROBOL 0 0 0% 2 77 1.3% AYMARA/QOLLA 9 15 0.21% 16 3 0.31% AYOREO 0 0 0% 0 1 0.01% UNIDENTIFIED 19 3 0.19% 11 151 2.66% INDIGENOUS CAMPESINO 32 22 0.48% 3 58 1% TOTAL POPULATION 11,080 inhabitants 51,060 inhabitants BY MUNICIPALITY Source: ADMINISTRADORA BOLIVIANA DE CARRETERAS, 2015. The road project involves 17 communities self-identified as indigenous and peasant communities whose population composition is multiethnic, mostly made up of indigenous Chiquitanos, but there are also migrant families of Quechua or Aymara origin that make up these communities. However, there are no communities along the road section with exclusively Quechua or Aymara inhabitants living in different communities. Historically, the most important and representative conglomerate in the Project's area of influence is the Chiquitano, and it is present in both rural communities and urban centers. In the urban center of San José, there are also members of the Ayoreode indigenous people, who move there sporadically from their Indigenous Indigenous Territory (Territorio Indígena Originario Campesino - TIOC) Santa Teresita, located 60 km away. The study then employs an analysis of the historical impact of missiona which has resulted in an intercultural identity of the Chiquitano people. Moreover, as regards socio-political and territorial organization of the ethnic populations within the region, it is found that ethnic .. Often does not coincide with administrative boundaries. The following section considered areas of employment among the regions. Table 16. Shared vocational areas among the region Municipality Common Productive Vocations San Ignacio • Missionary cultural tourism • Ecotourism for the north (Noel Kempff Park) • Conservation of the area's biodiversity. (Noel Kempff Park) • Forestry Agricultural and livestock activity. San Jose • Cultural tourism based on missionary heritage • Archaeological and historical park Santa Cruz la Vieja • Specialized center for cattle ranching Ecotourism and other places of natural beauty (Kaa - Iya Park) 50 Municipality Common Productive Vocations • Conservation of the area's biodiversity. (Kaa - Iya Park San Miguel • San Miguel Cultural tourism based on missionary heritage • Forestry activity in detriment, slowly reactivating agricultural and livestock activity at the San Rafael community level. Source: Source: ADMINISTRADORA BOLIVIANA DE CARRETERAS, 2015. Based on the information obtained from the Municipal Governments, PDM and data from the National Population and Housing Census 2012. Table 17. Employment by sector in municipalities % of population Municipality Productive Employment employed San Ignacio Agriculture, livestock and forestry 40.66% Manufacturing Industry (Linked to Handicrafts) 8.53% Construction 5.85% Trade Commerce 10.89% Accommodation and food services 4.42% Other miscellaneous and unidentified activities 29.65% San Jose Agriculture, livestock and forestry 38.52% Mining and quarrying (precious stones) 2.37% Manufacturing Industry 6.52% Construction 8.71% Commerce 9.43% Accommodation and food services 3.33% Transport 5.27% Other miscellaneous and unidentified activities 25.85% San Miguel Agriculture, livestock and forestry 48.52% Manufacturing Industry (linked to handicrafts) 8.68% Trade Commerce 9.16% Other miscellaneous and unidentified activities 33.66& San Rafael Agriculture, livestock and forestry 45.35% Manufacturing Industry (linked to handicrafts) 11.45% Construction 9.41% Trade commerce 4.58% Accommodation and food services 3.34% 51 % of population Municipality Productive Employment employed Other miscellaneous and unidentified activities 25.87% Source: Source: ADMINISTRADORA BOLIVIANA DE CARRETERAS, 2015. Based on data from the 2012 Census19 The impact analysis undertaken at the regional level for the project engages in a deeply qualitative analysis that relies on field analysis and interviews with populations across the four categories of vulnerability. The connection between the transmission of indigenous language and the poor state of schools is highlighted as a focal point which affects the preservation of their culture. Moreover, interviews reveal that lack of resources and discrimination also emerge as focal points hindering youth opportunities. Vulnerability due to physical and cultural aggression The themes highlighted under this category of vulnerability include subalternity, economic dependence and gender inequality. Given the history of aggression again the wrought during colonization, the Chiquitano people carry a historical background of captivity and servitude that has left traces in the formation of their identity, forging a more subaltern identity. Meanwhile, the Ayoreode people have distanced themselves from these historical processes and have reserved their habitation to live in the bush. However, the current lack of subsistence resources has led the Ayoreode to migrate to urban centers and to be exposed to discrimination. In the following, both vulnerability issues are presented according to the studies that have been compiled and contrasted with the information obtained in the field work. Moreover, women are particularly vulnerable from an economic and health perspective. Given the material lack of resources within their communities, the Ayoreo population also experience a significant share of women who move to intermediate cities and engage in sex work to keep a stable income. At the same time, the San José Municipal Hospital does not have a specific HIV prevention program and is not working specifically with the group of Ayoreo women. They recommend that there be Ayoreo health promoters and that the conditions exist for a program to become effective. Vulnerability of living space Land access and territory consolidation also pose material risks to the populations. However, the Chiquitano and Ayoreo communities have differing situations in terms of land and territory, with the Ayoreo having legal security over an extensive territory. The questions of economic integration and occupation are also positioned within this section, as the Ayoreo case is limited by their semi-nomadic way of life, which is neither useful nor functional for the economic life of the region, increasingly inserted in the market economy and modernity. In other words, the Ayoreo population has access to the territory but its use is limited. Demographic vulnerability (access to health and basic services) The study also incorporates a distinctly cultural understanding into the analysis of health statuses and diseases among the Ayoreo population. In this, it assesses access to water and solid waste management in particular, which pose major concerns to living quality and hygiene among the populations concerned. Importantly, following the diagnostic analysis on vulnerabilities of ethnic communities, the assessment undertakes an analysis of project effects and possible mitigation measures (Table 18). These serve to inform the development of an indigenous peoples' plan for the Chiquitano and Ayoreode communities in a way that ensures that the voices of Indigenous organizations involved in the process. 19 http://datos.ine.gob.bo/binbol/RpWebEngine.exe/Portal?&BASE=CPV2012COM. 52 Table 18. Organizational-Community Self-Diagnosis Matrix: Problems Identified and Solutions Proposed By Communities THEMES PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED PROPOSED SOLUTIONS INDIGENOUS TOWN ORGANIZATION Lack of access to water • Identify water source for human and sources and animal consumption implement water wells for human consumption in the communities. CCICH- Turubo Production Lack of access to • Access to production improvement productive, programs handicraft and organizational strengthening projects High dropout rates • Completion of infrastructure and ACISARV Education Polytechnic infrastructure equipment for its half-built, abandoned use Lack of legal security over • Create economic land occupied by opportunities for Chiquitano communities women according to their vocations. Strong migration from rural to urban areas due to the • Commercialization boom in timber of indigenous commercialization during products. the last years Chiquitano ABT bans logging and the men were left without a Production and source of income and CCISM local economic without the possibility of development working the fields. Families disintegrated by migration of parents. Mothers with responsibilities that cannot be covered. The women weave hammocks, weave bags, make ceramic baskets and make natural remedies. ACISIV Production and Production of handmade • Creation of spaces local economic ceramics and roofing tiles. for sale in the city development There is no fair market of San Ignacio. Rice production, no space for sale The organization lacks the • A space that allows infrastructure to hold you to bring meetings, attend to the together your communities and provide associates and training. carry out your different activities. 53 THEMES PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED PROPOSED SOLUTIONS INDIGENOUS TOWN ORGANIZATION Production and Women who make • To have an local economic handicrafts with natural exhibition and development resources (Garabata) Unfair sales space. commercialization processes. They do not have exhibition spaces for their handicrafts. They do not have health • Training of health services in their TCO. workers on health - Medical brigades do not and community attend their communities health processes on a regular basis. related to the state health system that - They feel discriminated allow them to against by health personnel access health Ayoreo CANOB because they do not want spaces, services to treat and check them and actions. Communicable disease • Work must be Health problems (Tuberculosis and done to identify HIV) signs, symptoms and continuous treatment processes. The settlement area in the • Improve town of San José without settlement adequate physical and conditions in urban sanitary conditions causes space with the diseases in the settled design of space population. contextualized to culture. Source: ADMINISTRADORA BOLIVIANA DE CARRETERAS, 2015. Takeaways The cases of the two communities analyzed each provide a set of lessons. For the Chiquitano case, what this account of experiences allows to infer is the importance of considering the following aspects in the identification of feasibility: • Consider the level of organization of the community. • The productive vocation of the area as well as the previous conditions to implement an initiative. Long- term sustainability and the bodies responsible for ensuring this sustainability. • The participation of Chiquitano women and fundamentally of Chiquitano women leaders • Promote that in the implementation of productive projects, local counterparts are considered for their financing and sustainability. • The technical capacity and availability of trained and qualified human resources of the municipalities and indigenous organizations. For the Ayoreo case, the analysis leads us to determine the possibility of creating or increasing a circle of dependence where, contrary to what is proposed, the indigenous people are involved in a situation of greater poverty. Therefore, the long-term sustainability of the initiatives is related to aspects such as accompaniment and investment, which from the Ayoreo indigenous perspective and logic should not be assumed temporarily by the financier, but in a continuous, or perhaps permanent way: 54 • The generation of a project with the Ayoreo should seek full ownership of the project, which can be achieved with systematic and specific support. Given the temporary nature of the road project, it will be essential to establish alliances with the corresponding state agencies to ensure long-term support, involving local institutions such as the Municipality of San José de Chiquitos, the Health Network, and the Institute of Language and Culture. • Promote the participation of Ayoreo women, given the endogamous nature of the population, their vulnerability to communicable diseases is very high. • Consensus should be generated and co-responsibilities should be sought in the execution of projects, although this factor may cause delays, in the analysis of relevance it is important to consider appropriate times for the socialization and definition of the initiatives to be undertaken. There are interventions by other development actors, which is why the IPP should complement and seek synergies and avoid duplication. • All projects should consider a stage to generate spaces for reflection and analysis on aspects related to the territorial planning approach, social and institutional participation, the mainstreaming of various intercultural and gender categories and the improvement of capacities installed in the local indigenous organizations of both peoples. Finally, it is important to point out that these lessons learned correspond to social/indigenous Development Projects, therefore they are not applicable to the Resettlement Plan, because it is developed in compliance with specific measures of the Social Safeguards and procedures established in the ABC to address the possible physical and economic impacts caused to the people. 5.5. Conclusions The application of PSIA to the project’s regional area of impact revealed insightful experience of taking into account and addressing diverse social realities within a territorial project which helped identify the broader impact of the project beyond its sector-specific intervention. It presents several valuable lessons which includes the importance of recognizing the multi-dimensional impact of policies, especially as regards the integration of concerns for social and environmental impacts into project-level interventions. Finally, its closing section with risks and mitigation measures included as an ex ante component of the analysis showcases the practice of embedding measures and response upfront to be ready to deploy them when necessary. 5.6. Recommendations The PSIA detailed in this section on the impact of the development project on the Chiquitano and Ayoreo communities located along the road corridor between San Ignacio de Velasco and San Jose de Chiquitos presents a straight-forward case in impact assessment of a sector-specific project on several dimensions within a region: poverty, social, and environmental. As it undertakes a deeply qualitative analysis through field interview, and consultations with individuals and local organizations. Several key take-aways from this case study include: • Importance of considering social – marginalized or under-represented groups, and incorporating their needs and voices into project considerations. • Developing responses in line with the needs and concerns expressed by these populations. • It also highlights the practice of embedding mitigation measures upfront i n order to be ready to deploy them when necessary. The methodological simplicity of this particular assessment makes it no less comprehensive or insightful. Rather, it brings to the material focus towards the quality of well-being determined through interview techniques, suggesting that while complex and sophisticated tools can be useful, they may not always the most effective or insightful for gauging social conditions, needs and wants of individuals and communities. 55 Chapter 6 56 6. Concluding Remarks and Recommendations 6.1. Summary This section summarizes the findings of the reviewed case studies and provides pathways forward toward the implementation of a TIA tool to assess the impact of territorial investments in Romania. If deployed well, the implementation of a TIA can help drive forward the culture of evaluation regional and territorial investment programs. The ex-ante components of the assessments can also provide directions forward in terms of thinking ahead with forecasting in mind, as well as incorporating future policy directions into TIA analyses. The Georgia Regional Development Project showcases an example of mainstreaming cultural heritage, natural environment and social outcomes into a territorial impact assessment. The assessment engages in a deep qualitative assessment of the status of cultural heritage sites as part of its analysis. This is supplemented by environmental baseline conditions which comprise as assessment of hazardous geological processes, nature reserves, protected areas, and biodiversity. Following, it takes a view towards local economic development with a socioeconomic analyses component which considers healthcare and education, economic activity. Having taken stock of the natural and social baseline conditions, it then uses these to inform that anticipated environmental, cultural heritage and social direct and indirect impacts and mitigation strategy. The case incorporates a number of forward-looking elements in the project design and consideration of risk elements. Moreover, the Georgia case also advances consistent mitigation measures to accompany the identified risks in an upfront and forward-looking way. It advances a longer term vision of risk mitigation which includes development of master plans and zoning for regional development within the frames of the Law of Georgia on the Spatial Planning and Urban Development (2005), enhancing utilities and other public services, and strengthening governance at the regional and municipal levels – which is applicable to regional development policy in Kakheti as well as in other regions nationwide. Application of the STeMA-TIA model to the Latium 2014-2020 ROP allowed for the identification of policy outcomes along several themes of the Europe 2020 goals. STeMA analysis at Regional and sub-Regional level highlighted how territorial disparities are affecting Territorial Cohesion, and helped in prediction about the future impact of ROP and NOP actions on specific territory’s cohesion, with particular att ention to Inner Peripheries, already addressed by a specific National Strategy. 20 Moreover, the application of the STeMA-TIA tool to the Latium 2014-2020 ERDF ROP presents just one case in a context of a nation-wide deployment of the STeMA TIA tool by academic researchers to evaluate ROPs at large across Italy. As a similar EU case, the application of the STeMA 3.0 methodology in Latium and across Italy’s regions showcases the potential of instilling a culture of uniform evaluation to accompany national policies and programs. It also signals the potential to deploy such a tool to analyze territorial impact of policies and programs across regions in the case of Romania if desired. The application of PSIA to the Bolivian case of Santa Cruz’ regional area of impact revealed insightful experience of taking into account and addressing diverse social realities within a territorial project which helped identify the broader impact of the project beyond its sector-specific intervention. It presents several valuable lessons which includes the importance of recognizing the multi-dimensional impact of policies, especially as regards the integration of concerns for social and environmental impacts into project-level interventions. Finally, its closing section with risks and mitigation measures included as an ex ante component of the analysis showcases the practice of embedding measures and response upfront to be ready to deploy them when necessary. 20 Prezioso, M., Dini, F., Grand, S., Pigliucci, M., Martellozzo, F. “ Territorial Impact Assessment for evaluation of Territorial Cohesion Policies: the STeMA-TIA 3.0 and social housing in Italy.â€? Regional Studies Association. https://regions.regionalstudies.org/ezine/article/stema-tia-3-0-and-social-housing-in- italy/?doi=10.1080/13673882.2021.00001082 57 6.2. Steps forward In moving forward with a TIA, a first line of approach could be to clearly draw and follow a conceptual model that defines the intervention logic (cause/effect relations) of a policy or program. This can be linked to the theory of change developed in earlier phases of policy or programme development. It should capture not only intended effects, but also unintended and indirect effects, and on as many different fields as possible to cast the net wide for spill-overs and externalities of an intervention. This exercise is best done in an informal workshop setting so as to maximize the amount of input. The cause/effect relationships can then be drawn out. The decision-making process around designing and deploying a TIA can follow a process similar to that presented in Figure 17. Figure 17. Logical Framework of the STEMA-TIA decision-making process. Source: Prezioso 2006, pp. 55–57. 58 6.3. Recommendations The selection of territorial impact assessments presented in this report give only an introductory overview of the wide array of tools and decisions at hand. What follows is the need for thorough consideration of the extent and depth of the impact assessment to be deployed and resources available, and decision-making around the components to be covered. In light of the numerous aspects to be considered, the below recommendations are aimed at informing the implementation of a TIA tool to evaluate the performance of a broad range of government territorial investment programs. The recommendations below can also help inform local development strategies and operationalize and implement the territorial impact assessment tool within MDPWA and across other relevant sector ministries. • Develop a deep understanding of local context. Given the unique nature of each territory or region, a TIA should incorporate an extensive look into the which stresses the importance of preserving cultural and natural heritage, and stock-taking of assets in a thorough and comprehensive manner. • Designing and maintaining flexible implementation plans. A number of forward-looking scenarios can be pursued with embedded considerations to adapt actions should they not materialize as anticipated. • Develop appropriate methodology on M&E for tourism development projects. Given that the impact of a regional development is likely to increase visitors, certain risks comes which can destabiilize and threaten the existing natural environment or the social and cultural fabric of communities. In order to address this, support responsible tourism should be strongly encouraged. • Establish the scope, timing and counterfactuals of the impact analysis. This would include thematic considerations, level of assessment(s), whether the assessment considers ex ante and or ex post outcomes and approaches a relevant time horizon in which they are expected to be realized. Given the ongoing nature of the strategy, several ex ante considerations can be embedded looking towards 2030. • Employ the indicators mentioned at the beginning the output 1a and in the strategy. Implementation of the TIA would entail utilizing the system of result indicators developed in earlier stages which should reflect the overall progress of the strategy, not only the objectives with financial allocations. The system of indicators can rely both on quantitative result indicators (to be added and monitored by IDA ITI DD), and qualitative result indicators (to be added and assessed by the evaluation team, in the context of future progress and impact evaluations). A limited number of result indicators can be selected, one per each sector; however, in this scenario, the indicators should be carefully designed in order to capture the overarching expected changes, and not the intermediate results of interventions. • Keep in mind the rationale for applying the instrument, as well as aims and objectives of the tools, as described in the professional academic and non-academic literature, as well as other documents (e.g. legal requirements/ guidelines. • Further expert opinion should be sought in this decision and design phase, as well as in the implementation phase if the selected model requires heavy analytics or technical expertise. • As many TIA tools are implemented at different spatial levels., vertical coordination will be vital for implementing and assessing the impact of regional development strategy. • Consider the cross-border implications through an adapted TIA exercise. With several cross-border cooperation projects implemented or currently under implementation in the Region, the implementation of a cross-border TIA could be informative. In this regard, the ESPON TIA-CBC could be partially relevant; however, this method allows only for ex post assessment, therefore activating a learning by mistake process, but not a foresight approach. Moreover, the high specialization of the methodology, which originates already in the very design of the methodology, does not allow TIA-CBC to be applied in different contexts as it is; it would require a supplementary effort for its adaptation. 59 7. References Böhme, K., Lüer, C., and Holstein, F. (2020). From Territorial Impact Assessment to Territorial Foresight in E. Medeiros (Ed.), Territorial Impact Assessment (pp. 157-176). Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54502-4 Camagni, Roberto (2020). The Pioneering Quantitative Model for TIA : TEQUILA in E. Medeiros (Ed.), Territorial Impact Assessment (pp. 27-54). Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030- 54502-4 Davaoudi, S. (2005). Understanding territorial cohesion, Planning Practice & Research, 20(4), pp. 433-441. ESPON (2004). ESPON project 2.1.1: Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies. Luxembourg: ESPON. ESPON (2005a). ESPON project 2.1.3: Territorial impact of CAP and Rural Development Policy. Luxembourg: ESPON. ESPON (2005b). ESPON project 2.1.4: Territorial trends of energy services and networks and territorial impact of EU energy policy. Luxembourg: ESPON, Research Centre for Energy, Transport and Environment Economics. ESPON (2006). ESPON project 3.2: Spatial Scenarios and Orientations in relation to the ESDP and Cohesion Policy. Luxembourg: ESPON. ESPON (2010). The ESPON 2013 Programme, Application Pack, Priority 2 Call for proposals for targeted analyses, ESPON 2013 Programme CU, Luxembourg. ESPON (2011). EATIA: ESPON and Terriotrial Impact Assessment – Inception Report. Luxembourg: ESPON. https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/EATIA_-_P2-9_-_Inception_Report.pdf ESPON (2013a). The TIA Quick Check. Luxembourg: ESPON. https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/TIA_quick_check_advanced_version.pdf ESPON (2013b). Territorial Impact Assessment of Policies and EU Directives: A practical guidance for policymakers and practitioners based on contributions from ESPON projects and the European Commission. Luxembourg: ESPON. https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/TIA_Printed_version.pdf ESPON (2016). SASI Modelling for ET2050 Scenarios with “Less efficient Regulationâ€? Framework Conditions. Working Paper. Annex to the ESPON Policy Brief “Territorial Implication of Better Regulation for Europe towards 2050â€?. https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/Working-paper_Better-Regulation_Final.pdf European Committee of the Regions (2020). “State of the Art and challenges ahead for Territorial Impact Assessmentsâ€?. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/4c5dd7c3-5224-11ea-aece- 01aa75ed71a1/language-en European Union, 2019. Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sites/default/files/ris2019.pdf Faludi, A. (2009a). ‘A Turning Point in the Development of European Spatial Planning? - The ‘Territorial Agenda of the European Union’ and the ‘First Action Programme’, Progress in Planning, 71: 1-42. Faludi, A. (2009b). Territorial Cohesion under the Looking Glass Synthesis paper about the history of the concept and policy background to territorial cohesion. URL: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/consultation/terco/pdf/lookingglass.p df (accessed 28 September 2009). GolobiÄ?, M., Naja Marot, Å pela KolariÄ? & Thomas B. Fischer (2015) Applying territorial impact assessment in a multi-level policy-making context – the case of Slovenia, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 33:1, 43-56, DOI: 10.1080/14615517.2014.938438 Hamez, G. (2005). Territorial Cohesion: How to Operationalize and Measure the Concept? Planning Theory & Practice, 6 (3), pp. 400-402. 60 Lecca, P., Barbero Jimenez, J., Christensen, M., Conte, A., Di Comite, F., Diaz Lanchas, J., Diukanova, O., Mandras, G., Persyn, D. and Sakkas, S., RHOMOLO V3: A Spatial Modelling Framework , EUR 29229 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2018, ISBN 978-92-79-85886-4, doi:10.2760/671622, JRC111861. Medeiros, Eduardo (2020a). Introduction: A Handbook on Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA) (Ed.), Territorial Impact Assessment (pp. 9-26). Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030- 54502-4 Medeiros, Eduardo (2020b). TARGET_TIA: A Complete, Flexible and Sound Territorial Impact Assessment Tool in E. Medeiros (Ed.), Territorial Impact Assessment (pp. 9-26). Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54502-4 Naja Marot, Mojca GolobiÄ?, and Thomas B. Fischer. The ESPON EATIA: A Qualitative Approach to Territorial Impact Assessmentl in E. Medeiros (Ed.), Territorial Impact Assessment (pp. 77-102). Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54502-4 Prezioso, Maria (2019). Methodological Approach for a New Economic Geography of the Territorial Cohesion in Europe and Italy. Bollettino della Società Geografica Italiana serie 14, 2 Special Issue: 7-24. doi: 10.13128/bsgi.v2i3.708 Prezioso, Maria (2020). STeMA: A Sustainable Territorial Economic/Environmental Management Approach in E. Medeiros (Ed.), Territorial Impact Assessment (pp. 55-76). Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54502-4 Rossi, L., Ciffolilli, A. (2011). Regional Innovation Monitor: Regional Innovation Report (Lazio). European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/growth/tools-databases/regional-innovation- monitor/sites/default/files/report/lazio_ite4_rim_regional_innovation_report.pdf SCHINDEGGER, F. and TATZBERGER, G. (2004) Territorial impact assessment (TIA) A certain tool or a whole kind of tools (contribution for first Interim Report of ESPON 3.1). Vienna: ÖIR - Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning. World Bank, 2009. World Development Report 2009 : Reshaping Economic Geography. World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5991License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. 61 Annexes 62 Annex 1. TIA Methodologies FACTSHEETS FOR SELECTED TIA MODELS This annexure presents a run-down of some of the most commonly known TIA methodologies, with a particular focus on those within the European space. Most of these methodological fiches are sources from the European Committee of the Regions report “State of the art and challenges ahead for Territorial Impact Assessmentsâ€?, while those for STeMA-TIA and SASI were developed based on the relevant sources of documentation for those methodologies. Target_TIA Main TARGET_TIA characteristics Intention Assess and compare territorial impacts of a selected measure by applying a multi-vector approach on predefined territorial cohesion dimensions. Assessment Hybrid: qualitative (degree of impact: +4 / - 4); and quantitative (aggregated statistical index). method For ex-ante evaluation only the qualitative assessment is viable. Thematic fields • Applicable to different thematic fields. Available examples focus mainly on covered territorial cohesion and EU cohesion policy impacts at different levels. Data basis Qualitative assessment • Both internally and externally produced information resulting from: report and bibliography readings; interviews to national experts and policy officials; stakeholder and expert consultations; project analysis. The information collected is used to produce a TIA qualitative assessment. Quantitative assessment • Externally produced statistical indicators, used and combined in an aggregated statistical index. Timing • Ex ante • Ex post Institutions • The TARGET_TIA should be performed by a service provider and a consistent share involved of the work is carried out via desk research and elaboration • National experts and policy officials are also involved in the qualitative assessment. Examples of • EU Cohesion Policy in the Iberian Peninsula (ex-post) applications • EU Cohesion Policy in Algarve, Portugal (ex-post) • Portuguese and Spanish cross-border programmes (ex-post)21 • EU Cohesion Policy in Sweden (ex-post)22 Advantages • Both ex-ante and ex-post evaluation; • It produces a TIA value, therefore allowing for comparability with other territories or policies; 21 https://www.evaltep.cz/inpage/cross-border/ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21681376.2014.999108 22 https://estif.lexxion.eu/article/ESTIF/2015/4/8 63 Main TARGET_TIA characteristics • It allows to assess multiple dimensions. Not only socio-economic environmental but also all territorial development dimensions • Facilitated application. Impact elements all together in excel spreadsheet with predefined formula and coefficients. Disadvantages • Identification of concrete goals and related dimensions can be challenging, especially in territorial cohesion policies • Selection of appropriate territorial scale and time frame in relation with statistic indicators availability. • The assessment can be financially costly due to the large data collection, especially if an ex-post evaluation is chosen. • Process can become overly lengthy for non-experienced evaluator Source: European Committee of the Regions, 2020. 64 STeMA-TIA Main characteristics STeMA-TIA Intention First used experimentally to STeMA TIA launched 2017 Assessment method Bottom-up approach to both quantitative and qualitative values Data basis • Internally compiled (regional Social Account Matrices for the NUTS 2 regions of the EU) Geographic coverage The STeMA-TIA methodology has been applied to a host of areas, sectors, levels and geographical scales, including European transnational and inter- and intraregional and local cases studies Thematic fields • Economic, social, environmental, cultural, organizational covered Action assessed • Policies • Programmes Timing • Ex ante • Ex post Institutions involved High amount of expertise in running the model is necessary in order to create meaningful results therefore it does not lend itself to a self-assessment of programs. Thus: • External assessment Examples of • Used experimentally to verify the correctness of governance approaches to the applications General Territorial Plan of the Metropolitan City of Rome. • ESPON project: Territorial Dimension of Lisbon/Gothenburg Strategy (2004– 2006) • Furthermore, STeMA-TIA helped to study and measure the territorialised impact of four major policies and determinants at the European NUTS 2 and 3 level, which are: o Innovation and Research (including actions for implementing ICT, R&D, o Innovation, and studying factors such as Human capital, Age, etc.) o Global/local interaction (including actions for implementing SMEs, Human capital, Employment, Transport, Trade, Tourism, etc.) o Quality (including actions for implementing Climate, Public health, Natural resources, Poverty, Transport, Age) o Use of resources and funds (including the spending required in implementing all previous policies) o The evaluation of these policies derived from 116 simple indicators (and metadata) included in the revisited and updated Lisbon Agenda (2000–2004), which was also implemented within the Gothenburg Strategy (2001) to support the new 2013 programming period. These four determinants assumed the role of the Strategy key-messages. Territorial cohesion was also introduced to indicate ways of integrating the Strategy into the new Structural Funds in the 2013 programming period. Advantages • A replicable tool that can be applied to evaluate all levels of territorial governance. It facilitates policy- and decision-making by creating assisted 65 Main characteristics STeMA-TIA processes that are analysed according to the way the identity of an area and its territorial capital changes over time, when being subject to political action. • Can create new perspectives for planning and programming and helps policymakers interpret how a policy can be adapted at both macro and micro levels. • Can define territorial contexts in light of their potential investment and attractiveness. • Multidisciplinary nature allows it to combine basic but diverse kinds of information (e.g. quantitative and qualitative; the latter can also be examined in quantitative terms) by making it operationalised across the board Disadvantages • From a conceptual standpoint, and despite its many applications, STeMA-TIA and its ‘measure and assessment’ processes are still far from reaching a political and institutional consensus among decision-makers. Consequently, it may often not be the assessment model of choice at the regional and local level • Its complex framework sometimes clashes with traditional political outlooks that only take into account the relationship between assessment and decision- making. Source: Prezioso (2020). 66 ESPON TEQUILA Main ESPON TEQUILA characteristics Intention The intention is to assess the efficiency of a given European policy to improve territorial cohesion, encompassing impacts across regions in terms of the economy and competitiveness, on environment and climate change, on society and on landscape. Main approach • The general methodology – namely a Multi-criteria analysis – and the criteria taken into consideration for calculating the territorial impacts were consistent with the EU Guidelines concerning Impact Assessment (SEC(2009)92) • The method is quantitative, integrating both quantitative assessment by forecast models and qualitative assessment by expert opinion. • Values are normalized to 0-1 scale by different type of functions. • Thresholds are identify to indicate values in a given indicator so poor no to be compensated by other indicators. • Three “summativeâ€? macro-criteria (weighted by political preferences obtained e.g. from stated-preference surveys) were defined, namely: territorial efficiency, territorial quality, and territorial identity (all adding up to the concept of territorial cohesion) Geographic • EU (NUTS 3) coverage Assessment • The territorial impact (TIM) is defined as TIM = PIM·D·V, namely the product of a method Potential Impact - PIM (defined by each region using statistical indicators or a forecast model) times an indicator of Desirability - D (in order to take into account the fact that, for example, a similar growth in employment has a different priority in advanced and lagging regions) times an indicator of Vulnerability – V (in order to take into consideration, for instance, of the higher vulnerability of urban areas to pollution or of natural areas to landscape fragmentation). • The single criteria on which impacts (PIM) were defined for the twp policies as follows: o CAP: Economic growth, Unemployment, Tourism diversification, Environmental quality, Community viability, Emissions, Risk of soil erosion, Landscape diversity, Community identity, Heritage products; o TRANSPORT: Productivity of inland infrastructure, Productivity of airports, Economic growth, Congestion costs, Traffic passing through, Emissions, Safety, Market opportunities, Landscape fragmentation, Exposure to external visitors, Regional integration. Thematic fields • All fields are covered since the assessment is comprehensive. covered o impacts on the economy o impacts on competitiveness o impacts on society o impacts on environment and climate change o impact on landscape and local identities Data basis • Data used on the CAP and CTP test application was obtained from specialized databases and modelling tools. • Impact indicators to be selected were indicated by sectoral expert and then discussed and adjusted based on data availability and modelling tools. 67 Main ESPON TEQUILA characteristics • In the case of CTP, TRANSTOOL model (2009 version, by DGMOVE) was applied to simulate scenarios on market regulatory and investment policies and obtain the 11 indicators (or proxies) to compute PIM, and then the macro-criteria leading to the overall assessment. Timing • Ex ante Institutions • The method was developed by POLIMI, a research institution, and applied by a involved University with expertise on CAP and a consultancy expert on transport policies. Examples of • TEQUILA was applied for the Agricultural policies as well as the Transport policies applications in the ESPON Tequila project Advantages • The method includes all dimensions needed to assess the improvement of European territorial cohesion generated by a given policy, and then facilitates a comprehensive political discussion in relation to how efficient is in this respect. • Transparent aggregation procedure of the method that can be relatively easy understand by decision makers and other stakeholders. The difference between scientific assessment of indicators and political choice of criteria and preferences among them is clear. Disadvantages • Data scarcity and conceptual ambiguity may produce controversial results that are highlighted when displaying results in maps. Integrating results in graphics and aggregated by types of regions may reduce this possible disadvantage. • Difficulty to use it on an ex-post evaluation mode. Hardly can be applied to assess the territorial impacts of EU policies after their completion Source: European Committee of the Regions, 2020. 68 ESPON EATIA Model Main ESPON EATIA Model characteristics Intention The intention is to assess the potential territorial impacts of European draft directives and to support their implementation processes. Main approach • The EATIA framework / methodology has been developed through the following 4 stages: 1. Establishing differences and similarities of existing assessment tools and TIA; 2. Designing a preliminary TIA framework; 3. Testing the applicability of the TIA framework and refining it; 4. Assessing the usefulness and benefits, as well as associated costs of applying the TIA framework; further refinement of the framework. • The framework has been developed around three complimentary strands: procedural, technical and governance. Geographic • National and tested for UK, Portugal and Slovenia coverage Assessment • There are four main stages of the TIA process: method o Stage 1 – Screening aims to determine the necessity for TIA on a case-by- case basis, that is, whether the approach should be employed or not employed for a specific policy proposal. o Stage 2 – Scoping aims to steer the entire TIA process by determining: whether major territorial impacts are likely to result from the proposed policy; what the nature of these impacts is; and where these impacts are likely to emerge geographically. o Stage 3 – Impact Assessment, the assessors need to complete the IAM, developed during scoping, by considering the impact of the policy proposal (or of each policy proposal element) on the locality in question in terms of the territorial characteristics used in scoping and possibly other, local characteristics. o Stage 4 – Impact Evaluation aims to be able to determine whether the potential impacts identified in the assessment stage are significant, both, positively and negatively, and to comment, in particular, on how any undesirable impacts could be avoided or mitigated though e.g. changing the wording of a directive proposal or altering the transposition approach. Thematic fields • Employment, Investment in research and development, Greenhouse gas covered emissions, Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, Educational attainment, Poverty and social exclusion Data basis • The data was collected through workshops with three national stakeholders; the national government departments / ministries responsible for spatial planning of the UK, Portugal and Slovenia. • ESPON documents and projects such as ARTS project and the TEQUILA model. Timing • Ex ante • Ex post 69 Main ESPON EATIA Model characteristics Institutions • Institutions involved are the departments and ministries responsible for spatial involved planning from three member states; the UK, Slovenia and Portugal (the Stakeholders), impact assessment expert teams of four universities (Liverpool, Ljubljana, Porto and Delft) and ‘learning networks’ of between 15 and 20 public and private sector practitioners from each of these countries. Examples of • During the development, the methodology has been tested in the UK (including applications local testing in Dover and Leeds, regional testing in Northern Ireland and Scotland), Slovenia and Portugal (at national level and regional in the Norte region). Advantages • Highly participatory methodology, which allows the involvement of national, regional and local departments responsible for spatial planning Disadvantages • Does not define all dimensions and components of Territorial Cohesion Source: European Committee of the Regions, 2020. 70 ESPON TIA-Cross-Border Cooperation (TIA-CBC) Main TIA-CBC: Cross-Border Cooperation characteristics Intention The methodology will allow policy makers and practitioners to obtain evidence on the territorial impact of CBC programs and help on developing better-informed cross-border policies. The working steps follow a sequence of desk research by the TIA service provider which is then reflected on with an expert panel in the next step, whose input again is relevant to the following desk research step by the service provider. Assessment • Quantitative, Semi-quantitative, Qualitative method • The approach follows a structured procedure: Step 1: Programme Characterization Step 2: Identification of program effects Step 3: Indicator Assessment Step 4: Impact assessment Step 5: Reporting Thematic fields • Adaptable to the specific objectives of the cross-border cooperation scheme that is covered under evaluation. Data basis Mixed combination of: • Externally produced quantitative data – indicators • Internally produced qualitative data - panel discussion and workshops • Produced by TIA in the form of semi-quantitative and quantitative net assessment – also done through panel discussion and workshops Timing • Ex post Institutions • The TIA is a joint exercise between a service provider, program authorities, and key involved stakeholders and experts involved in the workshops Examples of • The methodology has been tested during its methodology in 5 cross-border regions, applications namely Germany-Netherlands, Sweden-Norway, Romania-Bulgaria, Ireland- Northern Ireland-Scotland, and Spain- Portugal Advantages It is an ad-hoc methodology for Cross-Border programs at EU level. The tool is therefore highly specialized and can be easily considered the best option available when dealing with such programs. Nonetheless, the general approach, strengthened by a double expert validation, can be transposed into other contexts as well. Disadvantages It allows only for ex post assessment, therefore activating a learning by mistake process, but not a foresight approach. The high specialization of the methodology, which originates already in the very design of the methodology, does not allow TIA-CBC to be applied in different contexts as it is; it would require a supplementary effort for its adaptation. Source: European Committee of the Regions, 2020. 71 TIA Quick Check Main TIA Quick Check characteristics Intention Development of a method capable of depicting potential territorial impacts in a comparably easy way serving as a discussion basis for further analysis. Assessment Hybrid. Insights created by an expert workshop is combined with quantitative data to method calculate territorial impact patterns Data basis The methodology in principle can make use of any non-categorical indicator, therefore: • Externally produced/quantitative (e.g. EUROSTAT GDP statistics) • Externally produced/qualitative (e.g. EU-level survey) • Internally produced (e.g. programme internal indicators) Thematic fields Economy, Environment, Society, Governance covered Action assessed • Policies • Programmes (these assessments are possible, but not the intention behind the methodology) Institutions • Self-assessment involved • External assessment Examples of • Territorial Impact Assessment on Energy Poverty (ex-ante, May 2019) applications • Territorial Impact Assessment on Climate Neutrality (ex-ante, April 2019) • Territorial Impact assessment on the Bioeconomy (ex-ante, April 2019) • Territorial Impact Assessment on a Place-based Industrial Strategy (ex-ante, March 2019) • Territorial Impact Assessment – establishment of the European Labour Authority (ex-ante, July 2018) • Territorial Impact Assessment – UK's withdrawal from the EU (exante, February 2018) • Territorial Impact Assessment – EGTC Regulation – Regulation • (EU) No 1302/2013 amending Regulation (EC) No 1082/2006 (expost, March 2018) • Cross-border Impact Assessment Report / European Territorial Cooperation post- 2020 (ex-ante, March 2018) • Urban Impact Assessment - Implementation of the 2030 Agenda; The influence of SDG 11.3 on urban development through spatial planning (ex-post, May 2018) • Clean Vehicles Directive (CVD) (ex-ante, 2017) • Territorial Impact Assessment - Smart Specialisation (ex-ante, 2017) • Minimum Quality Requirements for Reused Water in Agricultural Irrigation and Aquifer Recharge (ex-ante, 2017) • Directive on Port Reception Facilities for Ship Generated Waste and Cargo Residues (ex-ante, 2017) Territorial Impact Assessment – Work-Life Balance Directive (exante) • Territorial Impact Assessment - Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (ex-ante, 2016) • Urban Impact Assessment – New Skills for Europe (ex-ante, 2016) 72 Main TIA Quick Check characteristics • Urban Impact Assessment - Sharing economy (ex-ante, 2016) • Territorial Impact Assessment - Birds and Habitats Directives (expost, 2015) • Analytical note - Port reception facilities Directive (ex-post, 2015) • Urban Impact Assessment - Energy performance of Buildings Directive (ex-post, 2015) • The Resource Efficiency and Waste Package – towards a circular economy: a zero waste programme for Europe (ex-ante, 2014) • “Smooth Phasing-out of the Milk Quotas in the EUâ€? (ex-ante, 2014) • “Port’s packageâ€? (ex-ante, 2013) Advantages • The methodology is easy to apply and an ex-ante impact assessment can be conducted at comparably low cost in a short timeframe, thud it is attractive to policy makers • The regulatory scrutiny board recognizes the methodology as suite for ex-ante policy impact assessment, thus the results are likely to be accepted in the EU-policy process • The method is already applied in practice thus not only a theoretical creation Disadvantages • Only a quick “glanceâ€? at territorial impacts is possible, in depth assessments require other methodologies • The results depend both on a well composed group of experts and high quality quantitative data backing, thus e.g. mitigating data availability issues via qualitative assessments is not possible Source: European Committee of the Regions, 2020. 73 LUISA Main LUISA characteristics Intention Land-function based ex-ante assessment of EU policies, especially agricultural and cohesion policy with larger cross-sectoral integration of input and output factors. Assessment Only quantitative method Data basis Externally and internally produced/quantitative (e.g. demographic data from EURPOP 2010, regional economic data from RHOMOLO, transportation data from TRANSTOOLS) Thematic fields Economy, demography, agriculture, energy covered Action assessed • Policies • Programmes Institutions • EC Services involved • External assessment Examples of • Integrated Coastal Zones Management (input to Impact Assessment) applications • Common Agricultural Policy (post 2013, formal Impact Assessment) • Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Water Resources (formal Impact Assessment) • Implementation of the ENER-CLIMA Reference Scenario • Assessment of Shale Gas extraction in Poland and Germany (formal Impact Assessment) • Resource Efficiency Roadmap Inputs to Cohesion Reports Advantages • Very well suited to depict demographic, infrastructural and agricultural effects • The only tool the provides results in grid format • Potential territorial impacts are provided on a grid basis, which is far more detailed than the results other methods achieve • Long-term trend projections based on likewise long-term historic data is possible Disadvantages • To create reliable results, sound calibration is necessary, with potential high workload • The baseline scenario concentrates on policies concerning agriculture, biodiversity, energy and TEN-T. The implementation of other policies requires calibration work. • As territorial development usually is based on local characteristics as e.g. landscape details, zoning plans, behavioral economics etc. a zooming into a small region can lead to misleading interpretations., Source: European Committee of the Regions, 2020. 74 RHOMOLO Main characteristics RHOMOLO Intention Regionalized assessment of EU Cohesion Policy Assessment method Only quantitative Data basis • Externally produced/quantitative (e.g. EUROSTAT GDP statistics) • Internally compiled (regional Social Account Matrices for the NUTS 2 regions of the EU) Thematic fields • Economy (environment, society as a “2nd tier analysisâ€? based on economic covered effects) Action assessed • Policies • Programmes Timing • Ex ante • Ex post Institutions involved High amount of expertise in running the model is necessary in order to create meaningful results therefore it does not lend itself to a self-assessment of programs. Thus: • External assessment Examples of • Impact Assessment of Horizon Europe applications • Evaluation of the European Fund for Strategic Investments • Impact Assessment of the European Social Fund • Impact Assessment of the European Regional Development Fund and the Cohesion Fund. • Ex-post evaluation of the ERDF and Cohesion Fund 2007-2013 • Assessing the macroeconomic impact of the EIB Group • The impact of the Grand Paris Express on the European regions • European NUTS 2 regions: construction of interregional trade-linked • Supply and Use tables with consistent transport flows • Assessing the regional socio-economic impact of the European R&I Programme • The impact of Cohesion Policy 2007-2015 in EU regions • The third pillar of the Investment Plan for Europe Advantages • Rhomolo is the only readily available model on the pan-European level capable of modelling sector specific economic interlinkages on this scale • The method is well tested and has been applied in numerous IAs • Similar to the TIA Quick Check the method is recognized by the Regulatory Scrutiny Board thus accepted as producing valid and reliable results for the purpose of the EU policy making process Disadvantages • Compared to the other available methodologies, the spatial resolution is relatively low. NUTS 2 for example does not allow for a differentiation between urban and rural regions which is oftentimes requested • Similar to LUISA the effort in running and calibrating the Rhomolo model is comparably high • The model, as any modelling framework, relies on a number of assumptions which are grounded on the current economic literature on general equilibrium modelling 75 SASI Main SASI characteristics Intention To provide comparative scenarios of spatial development of the territory of the EU Assessment method The SASI model is a recursive simulation model of socio-economic development of regions in Europe subject to exogenous assumptions about the economic and demographic development of the European Union as a whole and transport and other spatial policies. Data basis This methodology consists of the comparison of scenarios of the spatial development of the territory of the European Union produced with the socioeconomic SASI model under different assumptions about the quality of regulation of EU territorial policies in the receiving EU member states. For forecasting regional economic development the SASI model applies an extended production function with regional economic structure, regional productivity, accessibility, availability of labor, R&D investments, population density and availability of developable land as explanatory variables. In addition, it uses a migration function in which net migration is forecast with regional wage level and quality of life as explanatory variables. To take account of the slow process of economic structural change, the economic variables are lagged by five years Thematic fields European developments, economic performance, labor productivity, labor force, covered transport policies, migration, regional accessibility Action assessed • Policies Timing • Ex ante Institutions involved High amount of expertise in running the model is necessary in order to create meaningful results, there, it is recommended: • External assessment Examples of • The socioeconomic SASI model was used in ET2050 to make long-term applications simulations to investigate the likely economic, social and environmental impacts of EU and national policies in the fields of regional development and transport Advantages • SASI scenarios have proven to provide useful information on the benefits of better regulation in the field of territorial development, in particular with respect to better co-ordination of Structural Funds subsidies and trans- European network infrastructure investments between the EU and its member states • The main advantage of the scenarios is their high spatial resolution down to the NUTS-3 level and their dynamic nature, which does not only give static pictures for one year but considers the long-range effects of better regulation of Structural Funds and trans-European network investments on regional economic development, territorial cohesion and transport sustainability. Disadvantages • Because of the focus of the SASI model on spatial development not all aspects of the "better regulation" initiative can be addressed in the scenarios. The SASI model deals with movement of goods and services and regional economic development, territorial cohesion and sustainability of transport, but does not 76 Main SASI characteristics forecast impacts on the digital single market, public procurement and concessions and consumer acquis. • Immigration control, as it is practiced by a growing number of member states to cope with the increasing inflow of refugees from the Middle East and Africa, cannot be modelled with the present version of the model. • It does not deal with emissions other than those of transport or with the European financial system. Source: ESPON 2016. Figure 18. Structure of the SASI model Source: ESPON 2016. 77 Annex 2. Kakheti Regional Development Program Georgia Project Details Map 6. Georgia Regional Development Project: Kakheti Region Source: Project appraisal document. Figure 19. Projected Economic Impacts of the Georgia Regional Development Program Source: Project appraisal document. 78 Table 19. Activities and Responsible Agencies for Georgia Regional Development Project Category Responsible Agencies Urban renewal in Telavi and Kvelari CHF, UWC, and MDF Revitalization in Dartlo heritage village and upgrading in 11 cultural heritage sites ACHP, UWC, and MDF Screening of proposed private sector investments MDF and Working Group Evaluation of private sector proposed investments Working Group, MDF, with TA provided by a hired expert. Evaluation/selection reports to be endorsed by the Supervisory Board Signing contracts with selected private sector entities with clear obligations on LSGs, MDF and private sector each party entities Destination management and promotion, including local outreach campaigns GNTA and MDF Geo-tourism routes and tourism website GNTA, ACHP and MDF Skilled workforce development and capacity building GNTA, ACHP and MDF Capacity building to LSGs LSGs and MDF Construction supervision and sustainable management of MDF and ACHP cultural heritage sites Performance monitoring & evaluation activities GNTA MDF Procurement, safeguards, financial management, disbursement, supervision of all MDF Project activities Preparation of SARs/feasibility studies MDF Subproject investment agreements (assigning the responsibility for MDF and LSGs operation/maintenance of assets to LSGs) Source: Project appraisal document. 79 Anticipated Impacts and Proposed Mitigation Measures Table 20. Anticipated Impacts and Recommendations for their Mitigation Potential Direct Impacts Associated With Infrastructure Rehabilitation, Conservation-restoration and Investment Reconstruction/rehabilitation of residential houses and change of facade architecture Key Risk: Reconstruction/rehabilitation of residential houses and change of facade architecture is related to involuntary intervention within private residential space. Improvement of the architectural features generally is perceived as positive impact increasing real estate value of affected buildings. However, in some particular cases the attitude of the owners of apartments may be negative. Mitigation: Consultation with the affected households is crucially important. At this stage the project does not envisage demolishing of any residential buildings. In case the detailed design will require dismantling of some buildings owned by private persons or entities, the WB Safeguard Policy on Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) will be applied, including preparation of resettlement action plans through consultations with the affected households, and fair compensation. Restoration and Conservation of historical buildings and monuments Key Risk: Restoration and Conservation of historical buildings and monuments by definition is aimed on preservation of cultural heritage. However, improper planning and design, misbalance between reconstruction/restoration and preservation/conservation strategies may lead to unacceptable changes of materials/features and diminishing of the cultural heritage value of the affected monument. Mitigation: All interventions during the conservation-restoration works should be in compliance with the requirements of the Georgian Law on Cultural Heritage and the designs should be approved by the National Agency for Cultural Heritage Preservation. However, besides the approval of the ACHP, appropriate public consultations and consensus with the local communities, general society, Church and academicians is required. Potential Indirect, Long term, and Induced Impacts of the Project Implementation Infrastructure Limitations Infrastructure limitations: In particular, most critical possible impacts, related to exceeding of the carrying capacity of tourist sites are: (i) pollution due to poor sanitation, lack of toilets and sewage systems at the sites of destination, (ii) pollution due to improper waste collection system at the sites of destination and lack of waste collection facilities, (iii) pollution due to improper waste management and lack of waste disposal facilities region-wide, (iv) bad quality of local roads and associated travel risks and discomfort, dust, (v) lack of integrated site management (deterioration of storm- water drainage systems, lack of electricity resulting in uncontrolled tree felling) causing development of erosion and local landslides. Mitigation: The most part of these negative factors are addressed in the program subprojects and mentioned impacts will be mitigated through installing proper toilets, sewages, water supply systems, electricity, waste collection bins and establishing efficient management systems Uneven distribution of tourist flows and creation of peak flows at limited areas Uneven distribution of tourist flows and creation of peak flows at limited areas may result in local exceeding of carrying capacity: uncoordinated development of tourist infrastructure may result in focusing the tourist flows within limited areas, around the most February 8, 2012 advanced sites of destination. The pilot project in Signagi resulted in rapid increase of tourist visits in this particular local area and concentrated tourist flow. Mitigation: The proposed investment program considers integrated management and coordinated plan of rehabilitation of infrastructure and monuments in Telavi, Kvareli, Dartlo and 11 tourist destinations along the major tourist circuits. Besides, the longer term program defines as a priority construction of small boutique hotels at different destinations and does not support construction of large hotels. All this will enable more even distribution of the tourist flows and minimize risks of local overload. Small hotels spread along the tourist circuits will have less concentrated 80 Potential Direct Impacts Associated With Infrastructure Rehabilitation, Conservation-restoration and Investment emissions, discharges, competition for resources, impacts on traditional way of life and lower risks of revenue leakages, as compared with the scheme of developing large hotels. Rapid growth of tourist visits in most fragile, pristine areas and natural heritage sites Rapid growth of tourist visits in most fragile, pristine areas and natural heritage sites, which may result in local exceeding of carrying capacity. Mitigation: The most valuable and fragile environmental receptors are located at destinations remote from the main roads of the tourist circuits – these are the territories of existing or planned protected areas and adjacent territories within the frames of high and middle mountain ecological complexes. The proposed investment program is focused on stimulation of the cultural heritage and culinary tourism cluster, than to protected areas. The program will assist in defining and landscaping circuits to visit wineries, spectacular monuments, monasteries, and experience living culture (music, art, dance, culinary cuisine). The planned 20% increase of tourist flows is concentrated at the territories adjacent to the major tourist circuits and destinations. The project will not trigger significant increase of tourist flows to the most valuable and fragile ecological areas. Loss of ecological resources and biodiversity in extremely sensitive areas Loss of ecological resources and biodiversity in extremely sensitive areas due to greater access to remote destinations, increased tourist numbers, uncontrolled tourist behavior, introduced external species, and disturbance of habitats. Sometimes, tourists worn down the marked trails and created alternate routes, contributing to soil impaction, erosion, and plant damage. Most aggressive tourist clusters, like trophy hunting, biking illegal poaching or other misbehavior of tourists could be a reason for significant biodiversity losses. Mitigation: The proposed investment program is focused on cultural heritage, culinary tourism cluster to be promoted along the existing routes and tourist circuits, which are remote from the most sensitive sites and protected areas. In long term perspective, SECHSA recommends to conduct in-depth assessment of correlations between the increase of number of visitors and threshold of tolerable impacts. The results of these strategic assessments should be used for developing management plans for medium and long-term management purposes. Awareness building programs for tourists and phyto-sanitary control measures will be part of these management schemes. Phyto-sanitary measures should be implemented also country-wide. The capacity building needs for the Ministry of Agriculture to ensure efficient control needs to be assessed and measures recommended. Increased tourist flow and induced development driving a loss of ecological resources and biodiversity Increased tourist flow and induced development could be related to loss of ecological resources and biodiversity in sensitive sites adjacent to tourist circuits and competition for natural resources . Floodplain forest patches or fragments of medium-mountain forests at foothills adjacent to project sites and roads are main receptors, as well as surface water resources. Induced development is probable for the areas located close to the tourist circuits. Illegal woodcutting, poaching, overgrazing and overall deterioration of environment could be a result of uncontrolled development and increased tourist flow. Because of the seasonal nature of many tourist activities, Wildlife may be affected by large influxes of people at the critical times of migration, feeding, breeding or nesting Mitigation: • Restrict unplanned development and illegal construction through improving regulatory basis and enforcement mechanisms; Prepare land use maps and integrated development plans for the areas of concern around the tourist circuits in Kakheti region. • Rehabilitate infrastructure and ensure power supply and, where possible, gas supply to minimize use of fire wood. • Develop efficient system for combating forest fires at national and municipal level. • Improve the efficiency of environmental inspectorate and clearly distinguish responsibilities of the Ministry of Environment (MoE) and Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MoENR) in that regard. Ensure strict control on poaching, illegal woodcutting related to tourist activities, as well as induced development. • Encourage implementation of energy saving facilities and renewable energy schemes for use on tourism facilities and residential areas, as well as for investment projects. Consider energy saving and energy efficient 81 Potential Direct Impacts Associated With Infrastructure Rehabilitation, Conservation-restoration and Investment technologies as one of beneficial criteria during the selection process. In future planning in addition to evaluating environmental and cultural factors, an integral part of ecotourism is the promotion of recycling, energy efficiency, water conservation, and creation of economic opportunities for local communities Induced development could be related to landscape and visual impacts caused by road construction, unplanned development, illegal construction, and inappropriate solid waste storage and disposal. Mitigation: Development of the proposed Strategic development Plan, with TA from GiZ, and establishment of strict control on urban and rural design and construction, which is practiced in relation with the protected areas, should be expended for all important tourist destinations, scenic landscapes, resort areas and recreational zones. Restrict unplanned development and illegal construction through improving regulatory basis and enforcement mechanisms. Deterioration of surface and groundwater quality Deterioration of surface and groundwater quality due to inadequate wastewater treatment facilities and dumping of solid waste into surface water bodies. Mitigation: Eutrophication of lakes may occur even in case if the treatment facilities for the wastewater comply with common national standards. Requirements for the quality of discharged water in valuable lakes with the specific and fragile ecosystems should be stricter, than common standards. The simplest solution, however, is to restrict construction of hotels or residential houses, as well as any food processing plant at a distance less than 200m from the lake or stream inflowing into the lake. This will be among selection criteria for private sector investment. Strict control on compliance with the standard wastewater discharge requirements still should be valid for these facilities Tourists increase demands on local infrastructure and on the variety of public services that are usually the responsibility of local government Tourists increase demands on local infrastructure- transportation, energy and water supply, wastewater collection and treatment, solid waste disposal, and healthcare facilities- and on the variety of public services that are usually the responsibility of local government. Often the demands have significant seasonal peaks. Without coordination and planning, service demands may exceed capacity with adverse results for residents, as well as tourists. Availability of clean water for drinking, provision of wastewater treatment consistent with the capacity of local water bodies to assimilate pollution load, and adequate facilities for solid waste disposal are critical issues for this sector. If these services are provided by local government or independent utilities, the project sponsor should demonstrate that detailed information on the tourism development has been furnished to those agencies and that they are prepared and able to meet the project's needs. If the services are not available from local agencies, the plan for the project should show clearly how the developer proposes to provide them, and the impacts of the proposal should be considered in any EA or other environmental analysis. Mitigation: The implementing entity of the Kakheti Regional Development Project during the recent years has already implemented in Kakheti region more than 100 municipal projects aimed on improvement of the municipal infrastructure (water supply and wastewater systems, local roads). Exhaustive information is available regarding the existing utilities and their deficiency region-wide. The investment program is designed in a way that it includes improvement of water supply and wastewater systems in all project destinations, where the systems are deficient. Residents are likely to incur more of the costs and may enjoy less of the benefits of tourism than visitors, immigrant workers or commercial intermediaries Whereas the benefits of tourism may be assumed to accrue to local residents, residents are likely to incur more of the costs and may enjoy less of the benefits than visitors, immigrant workers or commercial intermediaries. Leakage is the loss of tourist expenditure as a result of goods and services being brought in from outside the area. These may be the import of foods and other hotel requirements, outside managerial expertise, repatriation of profits by owners, overseas marketing costs, transport and other services from the tourist source country. Mitigation: The proposed project is focused on developing environmental, cultural heritage and culinary tourism. Small scale boutique hotels and commercial and food processing facilities managed by local residents will be stimulated rather than large scale hotels and large plants owned by transnational companies. This will support local small and medium size business, employment of local residents (mostly – family business) and minimization of leakages. The local 82 Potential Direct Impacts Associated With Infrastructure Rehabilitation, Conservation-restoration and Investment labor force may need training in order to compete for jobs generated by the project and thus to participate fully in its benefits. Small business management, tourism management and similar training tools will be required. Kakheti happens to be a home for a few re-established or newly opened innovative schools of vocational training supported by international development organizations and/or by the national Government. A new training facility for hospitality service managers and employees is being organized by the National Tourism Administration under the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development. Induced development may occur at the fringes of tourist areas, including migration to the better developed areas. Induced development may occur at the fringes of tourist areas, including migration to the better developed areas. Given the limited carrying capacity of the sites in terms of space and infrastructure, in addition to cultural differences, migration can become a potentially important problem. Under-regulated housing development is a recurring problem in many developing country contexts and is not limited to tourism development. The latter exacerbates the problem however, with what are often large and aesthetically unpleasing buildings. A lack of zoning laws and the fact that land is almost exclusively privately owned may lead to a frontier mentality and result in unplanned construction activities and architectural mismatches. This is potentially a problem Kakheti, where lack of construction guidelines could jeopardize the colonial look of the town as it expands accommodations to receive more tourists. Mitigation: The Government is planning in the next 3 years development of strategy for sectoral ministries and local self-governments, and provision of guidelines as tools to facilitate enforcement of the Law of Georgia on Spatial Planning and Urban Development and to introduce integrated master planning. Owners of houses in village Dartlo are informed that they may not make any reconstructions without involvement and permission of National Agency for Cultural preservation of Georgia. Risk of damaging monuments The project will invest in the upgrade and development of infrastructure in the historical settlements as well as in the proximity to the cultural and natural heritage sites. Though nothing planned in CH building or their immediate proximity, such interventions carry additional risks of damaging monuments in case the design and methodological approaches used are unfit for conservation of the historical and aesthetic value of these sites or if tourist visitation of these sites, increased as a result of the project interventions, is not managed in a sustainable manner. Cumulative impacts of developing various elements of infrastructure in and around historical settlements, in or around natural sites of recreational and aesthetic value also add to the potential risks of the project. Mitigation: All the designs within the project related to conservation-restoration of historical buildings, blocks and cultural heritage monuments are managed by ACHP. The works are designed in compliance with the national legislation and international best practices. ACHP will recommend MDF specialist for supervising the works. ACHP will take part in acceptance of completed works related to restoration-rehabilitation of historical buildings. Infrastructure rehabilitation projects will be supervised by Ministry of Culture. Carrying capacity of all sites will be carefully monitored. Sensitivity to local traditions and religious beliefs Activities such as tours of archaeological sites may conflict with local traditions and/or religious beliefs. For investments in those facilities which are considered as sacred, as in the case of religious shrines, the impact is complex. It is important that such interventions are scientifically sound, and that they respond, as completely as possible, to patterns of social organization and existing social and cultural institutions. Traditions should be taken into account during operation of the tourist facilities. Mitigation: All the designs within the project related to conservation-restoration of historical buildings, blocks and cultural heritage monuments are managed by Agency for Cultural Heritage Preservation (ACHP). Project implementing entity and ACHP have consulted local communities in Darlo and in 11 project destinations. There are some specific restrictions and limitations from the point of view of local traditions and religious opinions. To avoid disintegration of local community, it’s highly recommended to arrange special training and prepare for inter-communication with visitors. Those inhabitants of Dartlo, involved in business have to realize that to keep identity is highly important. For the Tush people it’s unacceptable some behaviors of visitors like: walking naked or bounded only with towels in guesthouses, in the village or nearest areas; showing erotic actions on a public, especially while children attendance. This will be considered as abuse of the community. There are several parties related, involved and interested in 83 Potential Direct Impacts Associated With Infrastructure Rehabilitation, Conservation-restoration and Investment developing Dartlo and the area of Tusheti: local community, administration of Tusheti Protected Area, the Agency of Protected Areas of Georgia, Alaverdi eparchy, National Agency for Cultural Heritage Preservation, Tusheti Tourism Association, Georgian Tour Operators Association, others. Therefore, any investments in and around Dartlo village should undergo a full process of stakeholder consultation as defined by the safeguard policies of the World Bank at the stage of subproject planning and design, and the received feedback should be incorporated in subproject designs prior to commencement of works. Georgian Orthodox Church Influx of tourists may stimulate illegal trade Influx of tourists may stimulate illegal trade with movable archaeological remains and activities of remain searchers. Mitigation: Control mechanisms should be enhanced Commercialization of traditional artisan industries can lead to loss of authenticity Commercialization of traditional artisan industries can lead to loss of authenticity with negative results for the artisans and possibly for the buyers as well. Mitigation: This issue could be a subject for further in-depth study and recommendations for obtaining and managing certain donor grants and Governmental subsidies on support of truly traditional artisan production (individuals or family business). Shooting photos of wall paintings may result in damage Shooting photos of wall paintings may result in damage due to photochemical reactions induced by flashing. Mitigation: Shooting photos should be limited to in monasteries and especially near the wall paintings 84 Annex 3. Details of the TIA of Latium Region 2014-2020 ROP Latium Regional Innovation Performance Map 7. Regional Innovation Performance in the Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2019 Source: European Commission, (2019a). 85 Map 8. Italy Regional Innovation Performance 2019 Table 21. Italy Regional Innovation Performance 2019 Source: European Commission, (2019a). Source: European Commission, (2019a). Conceptual Frameworks of STeMA-TIA 3.0 Table 22. Logical tree of Sustainable Growth Source: Prezioso 2020. 86 Table 23. Logical tree of Inclusive Growth Source: Prezioso 2020. Table 24. Logical tree of Resources and Funds Source: Prezioso 2020. 87 Results of the STeMA-TIA 3.0 in application to the Latium 2014-2020 ROP Smart Growth Determinant Figure 20. SG3 Indicator (Internet in the public body), ex ante and ex post situation Source: Prezioso 2020. Figure 21. SG17 Indicator (Telecommunication development level), ex ante and ex post situation Source: Prezioso 2020. 88 Sustainable Growth Determinant Table 25. Ex ante assessment of Sustainable Growth Table 26. Ex post assessment of Sustainable Growth 89 Figure 22. SuG28 Indicator Insurance and financial institutions, ex ante and ex post situation. Source: Prezioso 2020. Figure 23. SuG41 Indicator Urban Waste, ex ante and ex post situation Source: Prezioso 2020. 90 Inclusive Growth Determinant Table 28. Ex post assessment of Inclusive Growth Table 27. Ex ante assessment of Inclusive Growth 91 Figure 24. IG38 Sector Inclusion of foreigners, ex ante and ex post situation Source: Prezioso 2020. Figure 25. Source: IG40 Indicator Female Employment, ex ante and ex post situation Source: Prezioso 2020. 92 Resources and Funds Determinant Table 29. STeMA ex ante assessment of Latium Region ROP policy choices, Resources and Funds determinant. Source: Prezioso 2020. Table 30. STeMA ex post assessment of Latium Region ROP policy choices, Resources and Funds determinant. Source: Prezioso 2020. Letters in bold shows a change in ex post situation. 93