CLIMATE CO-BENEFITS TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT (P177980) Vulnerability Context 1. Climate Change & Disasters: The climate of Kerala is tropical monsoon with seasonally excessive rainfall and hot summer. Between 1981 and 2010, Kerala had an annual average rainfall of 2,835.5 mm, an annual average maximum temperature of 31.3°C, and an annual average minimum temperature of 23.1°C. The annual average rainfall in Kerala is projected to increase by 34.7 mm to a new average rainfall of 2,870.2 mm during 2021– 2050, according to RCP 4.5 (low emission scenario). Kasaragod, Kannur, and Kozhikode districts are projected to have reduced annual rainfall between 2021 and 2050, while increases are projected for other districts. The projections remain broadly similar under RCP 8.5 (high emission scenario). The state is prone to natural hazards such as cyclones, monsoon storm surges, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, tsunamis, floods, droughts, lightning, landslides, and land subsidence. Floods are the most common type of disaster; nearly 14.8% of the state is prone to flooding. Recurring disasters have left devastating impacts on the livelihoods of vulnerable groups and women, especially women farmers and fisherwomen. 2. Coastal Erosion: The 580-kilometer-long coastline plays a crucial role in the economic, social, and cultural development of at least 30 percent of the population in Kerala. The coastal wetlands, backwaters, and estuaries along the Kerala coast are considered biodiversity hotspots and backbone to livelihoods. The several ports along the coast provide means of transportation and a source of income. Fishing is an important economic activity for the coastal communities in Kerala. The Kerala coast is subject to severe coastal erosion due to weather and manmade factors, cyclones, floods, and seawater rise and sand mining. They inflict loss of lives, livelihoods, and property, especially among rural communities. South Kerala’s coast is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise by 3.5 to 34.6 inches between 1990 and 2100, which would result in salinity intrusion to coastal groundwater, endanger wetlands and inundate valuable land and coastal communities. Abnormal floods in 2018 led to approximately 103 km of coastal protection and drainage systems being severely eroded, damaged, or heavily deposited with debris. A study concluded that 45 percent of Kerala’s coast is eroding, particularly the Kasaragod, Kannur, Malappuram, Ernakulam, Kollam, and Thiruvananthapuram1. Coastal erosion will be aggravated by climate change. 3. Water Resources Sector: Due to erratic rainfall, Kerala is highly prone to flooding, particularly in the low areas around the backwaters and lower river reaches. Due to the frequent occurrence of floods and draining of silts - rivers, ponds, lakes, and wells, which are essential freshwater sources - are at risk. Wetland ecosystems are also at risk of degradation due to changes in temperature and precipitation. The backwaters of Kerala are a unique self-supporting ecosystem consisting of brackish water lying at the meeting point of freshwater from rivers and seawater. These serve as a source of livelihood for a large population, including traditional fishermen and those employed in the tourism and hospitality sector. The fishermen’s community is highly vulnerable to climate change risks and natural disasters. They incur significant losses due to disasters in terms of loss of livelihood, lives, and property. Saltwater intrusion has the potential to disrupt essential wetland functions. An increase hinders natural processes in wetlands like denitrification and water quality 1National Assessment of Shoreline Changes Along Indian Coastline between 1990-2016; NCCR, 2018. Noticeable erosion is seen at Kappil, Mahe, Ponnani, Veliancode, Thennithura, Ramanthali, Choottad, Chombala, Klavipalam, Pakkayil, Moodai, Chettikulam, Kappad, Calicut, Thekkerpuram, Kozhikode, Beypore, Cherai, Kuzhupilly, Anyail, Narakkal, Malippuram, Kannamaly, Thalakadavu, Chellanam, Kodamthuruth and Kochi Port to Chellanam. management in salinity. Ecosystem and habitat destruction from saltwater intrusion is also a significant concern, making water resource management a priority. Table 1: Activity-wise Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Actions DLIs Adaptation/Mitigation Actions RA 1: Strengthening transversal systems for resilience DLI 11: Climate Budget produced as part of GoK’s annual state budget for ten key climate-relevant sectors ($10 million) • GoK will complete and finalize climate Vulnerability Context: refer above relevance, expenditure, and institutional diagnostic analysis. Intent to address identified vulnerabilities: The new activities • DoF will develop and CBT. under DLI 11 aim to strengthen a whole-of-government approach methodology, guidelines, reporting to resilience by leveraging the State’s governance and public formats, monitoring protocols, and finance framework to enhance policy and the institutional roll-out plan. environment through a potential CBT exercise led by the DoF. The • DoF will carry out a comprehensive DLI also aims to support GoK in coming up with a Climate Budget Budget Coding exercise to roll out CBT to enable the state to track and report financial flow that helps with integration to States’ IFMIS. climate change mitigation and adaptation, build trust and • Conduct training of key staff for accountability about climate finance commitments, and monitor capacity development for trends and progress climate-related investments. implementing CBT reform • CBT will be adopted to produce Explicit link between identified climate change risks and specific climate budgets initially for three pilot project activities: Integrating climate change into planning and sectors and expanded to at least ten budgeting practices is essential to combat climate change’s social critical climate-relevant sectors as part and economic development impact. The activities under DLI 11 of GoK’s annual budget. will solve the lack of systematic climate expenditure data to enhance climate-resilient decision-making. The climate budget initiative, led by the DoF, GoK, will carry out a cross-sectoral analysis to study the relevance, risk, public expenditure, and institutional aspects critical for achieving Kerala’s climate response and develop an overall action plan to establish and institutionalize climate budget/ expenditure tagging system across the identified critical climate-relevant sectors. Systematic climate expenditure data obtained through the proposed activities will enhance GoK’s climat e transition and disaster resilience efforts. GoK will benefit from information on the nature, quantity, and quality of its expenditures related to climate change mitigation and adaptation and DRM. RA 2: Embedding resilience in key economic sectors DLI 7: Integrated River Basin Management Plan is developed and implemented for Pamba Basin ($50 million) • Commence implementing flood Vulnerability Context: refer above protection measures in critical areas in the Pamba basin. Intent to address identified vulnerabilities: The program aims to • Conduct intensive training of include critical investments to alleviate the impact of the 2021 operational staff in various technical floods and address the issue of frequent floods in the Pamba areas, including data acquisition and basin, making the region more resilient to future flood events. management and hydrologic and The Program also aims to strengthen the Water Resources hydraulic modelling. Department (WRD) and equip the ICCC within WRD with • Conduct comprehensive surveys using innovative tools for flood management. field instruments and innovative technologies such as drones, remote Explicit link between identified climate change risks and specific sensing, and flood forecasting. project activities: Critical investments in severely flooded regions Development of early warning will restore rivers and land embankments, improving future systems, including community-based climate resilience. Data acquisition through field instruments and systems. remote sensing, followed by analyses, modelling, and • Commence structural and non- forecasting, and application by early warning systems, structural protection works at implementation, and structural and non-structural mitigation identified critical hotspots through measures, will improve disaster risk governance to manage feasibility studies and detailed project better disaster risks, including flood management and sediment designs. management in the rivers in Pamba River Basin. • WRD will adopt and operationalize an integrated river basin plan for Pamba Capacity building of PMUs and government agencies on field- Basin and integrated WRM systems appropriate technologies will enhance the transparency and with KSDMA, DoA, PWD, and LSGD. accuracy of monitoring & evaluation while allowing real-time risk • Strengthen Open Data systems as a monitoring and portfolio mapping for more muscular cross-cutting element in the SPF coordination across relevant programs and development partners. The use of Open Data systems will aid in better identifying climate vulnerabilities. The conceptualization of a shared digital open data system/platform will enhance timely and effective climate and disaster risk-informed decision making. For example, regular monitoring of shoreline changes, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion will bridge the data gap, leading to timely measures to reduce climate risks. DLI 10: Long-term Shoreline Management Plan for the entire coastal stretch is developed, and investments to protect coastal erosion in critical sites carried ($90 million) • WRD will select sites and interventions Vulnerability Context: refer to above for critical investments in erosion protection works (soft/nature-based Intent to address identified vulnerabilities: The proposed new solutions) activities under DLI 10 aim to strengthen coastal resilience and • Implementation of critical investments management to sustainability protect, reduce exposure to in erosion protection works erosion, environment, and other hydro-meteorological hazards • Development and adoption of a long- on the coast of Kerala by (i) improving coordination and term SMP for the entire coastal strengthening the institutional capacity for sustainable shoreline stretch of Kerala. management; (ii) preparing a long-term Shoreline Management • Strengthen Open Data systems as a Plan (combining policy options and technical solutions) for the cross-cutting element in the SPF entire coastal stretch based on the sediment cell concept and (iii) pilot investments supporting a hybrid of hard and soft solutions in select districts along and adjacent to Pamba basin requiring urgent attention. Explicit link between identified climate change risks and specific project activities: The SMP will provide a state-wide assessment of the shoreline changes, an understanding of the processes that drive this change, and the policies to address the risks of shoreline change to climate change and disaster induced factors along the coast. The plan is a policy document precisely for shoreline defense management, accounting for existing resources, legislation, and future developments. While the policies suggested are focused on short-term requirements, The long-term plan will control and alleviate disasters caused due to climate change by addressing the problem of coastal erosion, reducing the risk of loss of life, livelihood, and property of the coastal population in Kerala. The global open data movement concepts will be applied to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and the impact of climate change, increase public access to risk information, communicate risk more effectively to decision-makers, and give policymakers access to new forms of data-driven risk assessments. Regular monitoring of shoreline changes, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion will bridge the current data gap, leading to timely measures to reduce climate risks. Thus, increasing the State’s capacities in resilience and coastal zone management.