The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) Project Information Document (PID) Appraisal Stage | Date Prepared/Updated: 10-Dec-2021 | Report No: PIDA33208 Dec 07, 2021 Page 1 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) BASIC INFORMATION OPS_TABLE_BASIC_DATA A. Basic Project Data Country Project ID Project Name Parent Project ID (if any) Eastern Africa P177843 Additional Financing to P173702 Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya Parent Project Name Region Estimated Appraisal Date Estimated Board Date Emergency Locust Response AFRICA EAST 17-Jan-2022 09-Mar-2022 Program Practice Area (Lead) Financing Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Agriculture and Food Investment Project Republic of Djibouti, Uganda - Office of the Financing Federal Democratic Prime Minister, Uganda - Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Agriculture, Republic of Uganda, Animal Industry and Republic of Kenya Fisheries, Ethiopia Food Security Coordination Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources & Food, Kenya Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperation, Djibouti Ministry of Agriculture, Water, Livestock and Fish Resources Proposed Development Objective(s) Parent To respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness. Components Surveillance and Control Measures Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation Coordination and Early Warning Preparedness Project Management PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFin1 Dec 07, 2021 Page 2 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) Total Project Cost 35.00 Total Financing 35.00 of which IBRD/IDA 35.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 35.00 IDA Credit 35.00 Environmental and Social Risk Classification Substantial Other Decision (as needed) B. Introduction and Context Country Context 1. Kenya has had strong economic growth and declining poverty, but absolute poverty remains high. Robust GDP growth since 2011 averaging 5.8 percent catapulted Kenya to lower middle-income status and significantly reduced poverty levels. Kenya's poverty rate is one of the lowest in East Africa, falling from 43.7 percent in 2005/06 to 36.8 percent in 2015/16 and 33.4 percent in 2019. The country not only reduced poverty but it also reduced income inequality, with the Gini index falling from 0.45 in 2005/06 to 0.39 in 2015/16. Kenya's Human Development Index value for 2019 was 0.601, which puts the country in the medium human development category—ranked 143 out of 189 countries and territories. With a score of 0.55, the World Bank Human Capital Index 2020 places Kenya third in Sub-Saharan Africa, after Seychelles and Mauritius. 2. Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) have the highest poverty and the highest food insecurity. The ASALs cover 80 percent of the country’s land area but only 25 percent of the population. Poverty, low education levels, lack of economic development, and limited access to basic social services impact most of the territory and bring high levels of chronic and acute food insecurity. Given their vulnerability, these households are exposed to repeated shocks (especially climate shocks) and have the least resilience to those shocks. The viability of their main livelihood—agriculture and livestock—is less certain in some marginal areas because of diminishing land holdings, declining land productivity, and limited use of productive technologies. With limited livelihood alternatives, many households depend on food assistance to meet basic food needs, even during normal years. In rural areas of the country, households depend on agricultural production for about 20 percent of household food consumption; they rely on the market for the rest. In urban areas, market dependence is much higher. Given this high degree of market reliance, most households are vulnerable to regional and Dec 07, 2021 Page 3 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) international price shocks. Poor households are particularly vulnerable to maize price shocks, as they spend about 20 percent of their food expenditures on maize. 3. The Desert Locust (DL) upsurge that began in 2019 is the worst in 70 years and has mainly affected the ASALs, threatening severe food insecurity to about 3 million people. The first swarms entered Kenya from Ethiopia and Somalia on December 28, 2019 and quickly spread to 28 counties. A second DL invasion in early November 2020 spread to several counties—including, Mandera, Garissa, Samburu, Wajir, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Marsabit, Turkana, Meru, Tana River, Lamu, and Isiolo. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Fisheries and Cooperatives (MoALFC), in collaboration with several development partners has been carrying out control and surveillance measures. World Bank support to the effort includes the Emergency Locust Response Program (ELRP), which supported a holistic response to the upsurge, including swarm surveillance and control, livelihood restoration, and improving national preparedness against future outbreaks of DL and other transboundary pests with a US$43 million credit to Kenya. While the upsurge is largely under control in Kenya now, swarms are still entering the country from Somalia and Ethiopia (the latest in early November 2021) and the threat remains while the upsurge has not been completely controlled in those countries and on the Arabian Peninsula. Thus far, over 200,000 hectares of land have been treated for DL control operations. The continuing impacts of the upsurge still pose a major risk to food security and economic growth. Moreover, while drier conditions help end the DL upsurge, they also prevent pasture regeneration and farmers are not getting the water they need to replace lost crops. 4. The COVID-19 pandemic reversed some of Kenya’s progress in poverty reduction and led to its first recession in 20 years. Kenya’s economic outlook remains uncertain, and the projected return to above five percent growth rate faces several challenges including slower than anticipated vaccination rollout, fiscal slippages, adverse weather conditions, and a weak global economy. Average GDP growth will likely be closer to 3.7 percent in 2021–22. In the DL-affected areas, COVID-19 had a significant compounding impact on livelihoods and food security. Limitations on travel prevented specialists from mounting a response to the DL invasion in a timely manner. In addition, farmers and livestock producers who suffered crop and pasture damage could not travel to nearby towns for alternative work. In 2020, an estimated two million Kenyans were pushed into poverty. 5. By February 2021, an estimated 1.4 million Kenyans faced high levels of acute food insecurity and needed humanitarian assistance in the ASAL counties—a 93 percent increase over the number in August 2020. This was driven by a combination of four factors: (i) a second consecutive below-average rainy season for the long rains (March - May 2021); (ii) a third wave of COVID-19 and related control measures; (iii) remaining impacts of desert locusts; and (iv) interruption of safety net support in the drought affected areas which has since been restored and scaled up. Of the 1.4 million people, 238,000 people were estimated to be in the “emergency� phase (IPC phase 4) while the remainder (1.2 million) were in “crisis� phase (IPC phase 3). This was attributed to below normal performance of the short rains, particularly after waves of locust invasions that denuded the environment. As per the 2020 Short Rains Season Assessment1 by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) in February 2021, most of the country received 51 – 90 percent of normal rainfall. However, conditions were notably worse in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Garissa and Lamu counties where rainfall received was 25 – 50 percent of normal. 6. Following consecutive failed rainy seasons, Kenya’s food insecurity situation has worsened with 2.1 1 The 2020 Short Rains Season Assessment Report, Kenya Food Security Steering Group, Govt. of Kenya, February 2021. Dec 07, 2021 Page 4 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) million people experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or 4) as of October 2021. In addition, new DL swarms have been affecting the northern border counties in November and December. Most of the affected populations are in eight counties: Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir, which are regions with predominantly pastoral livelihoods. All these counties also experienced the second wave of locust attack between November 2020 and April 2021. Sectoral and Institutional Context 7. The agriculture sector is central to long-term economic growth and sustainable poverty reduction in Kenya. The agricultural sector contributes nearly 60 percent to GDP (approximately 33 percent directly and another 27 percent indirectly). The sector employs nearly 8.5 million Kenyans, or about 47 percent of total employment and 70 percent of rural employment; this trend has held since 2015/16. Between 2005-06 to 2015-16, the households with agriculture as the primary source of income (including crop income, livestock income, and earning of wage workers in the agricultural sector) accounted for 27.6 percent of overall poverty reduction.2 Agricultural incomes (from crops, livestock, and fishing) account for 64 and 53 percent of the income sources of the poor and non-poor, respectively.3 Agriculture is also responsible for most of the country’s exports, accounting for up to 65 percent of exports in 2017. The agricultural share of value -added only stopped increasing in 2017 and remains the highest among Kenya’s regional and Sub-Saharan Africa Lower Middle Income Country peers. During the covid-19 pandemic, the strong performance of the agriculture sector has significantly cushioned the blow to the Kenyan economy, underlining the sector’s centrality to Kenya’s economic growth. 8. Weather extremes fueled by climate change were a major contributing factor to the current DL crisis. Much of Eastern Africa experienced severe drought in 2016/17 and 2018/19, alternating with extensive flooding in the third quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2019. Atypical weather conditions brought on by a strong El Niño combined with one of the strongest Indian Ocean Dipoles (IOD) in 60 years are among key drivers fueling the present outbreak. The effects shift ocean temperatures and generate unusual weather patterns—in this case an unusually large number of strong cyclones. The cyclones brought unexpected heavy rains to the southern Arabian Peninsula that triggered excessive vegetation growth; with an ample food supply, the locust population exploded and swarmed. Rainfall totals that were about 400 mm above average in East Africa in the autumn of 2019 enabled locust populations to move far and quickly into that region. At the same time, swarms also moved through Iran and into Pakistan and India, causing damage to food and cash crops. 9. In response to the locust upsurge, the GoK has been undertaking control operations in collaboration with county governments and other development partners. MoALFC has been working closely with the FAO to take up aerial and ground locust control in the affected regions. The key interventions include: (i) establishing six control bases in Wajir, Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit, Masinga, and Garissa to coordinate control interventions in the affected areas; (ii) deploying spraying and surveillance aircraft to the affected areas and ground control equipment (such as, vehicle-mounted sprayers, motorized and manual knapsack sprayers, hand-held sprayers); (iii) building the capacity of county support staff; and (iv) deploying more than 500 National Youth Service (NYS) personnel for ground spraying. The strategy has been to identify and target breeding sites and control hopper bands (i.e., while locusts are still at the nymph stage before they can fly). 2 Kenya Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy (ASTGS), 2019-2029. 3 Kenya Poverty and Gender Assessment, 2015-16, The World Bank. Dec 07, 2021 Page 5 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) C. Proposed Development Objective(s) Original PDO: The program development objective (PrDO) of the ELRP MPA is “to respond to the threat posed by the locust outbreak and to strengthen systems for preparedness�. The specific project development objective (PDO) for Kenya is "to prevent and respond to the threat to livelihoods posed by the Desert Locust outbreak and to strengthen Kenya’s system for preparedness." Current PDO: There is no change to either the PrDO or the Kenya PDO. Key Results 10. The PDO indicators from the parent project remain the same; however, the target results for two of the indicators will increase because of this additional financing. They are: o Land area (ha) of affected pasture/rangeland restored to productivity (hectares (ha)) will increase from a target of 70,000 hectares to 141,500 hectares (an increase of 71,500 hectares). o Land area (ha) of affected agricultural land restored to productivity (hectares (ha)) will increase by 24,000 hectares to a new target of 44,000 hectares. 11. The table below outlines the intermediate results indicators, for which targets will be increased as well. Original Added Project-end Targets due AF Project Indicator Target to the AF End Targets Locust monitoring system operational (Yes/No) Yes No Change Yes (Yes/No) Control teams (Number) trained in safe use of 50 No Change 50 pesticides (Number) Affected farmers (number) receiving input packets 20,000 20,000 40,000 (Number) Affected livestock holding households (number) 70,000 70,000 140,000 receiving emergency fodder and fodder seeds (Number) Affected livestock holding households (number) 10,000 10,000 20,000 receiving replacement livestock (Number) Awareness raising communications campaigns Yes No Change Yes conducted (Yes/No) Locust Control Unit fully established at the National Yes No Change Yes Level Number of Counties that have established Desert 12 No Change 12 Locust Control Units at the County Level Dec 07, 2021 Page 6 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) Original Added Project-end Targets due AF Project Indicator Target to the AF End Targets Percentage of grievances registered and resolved (%) 95% No Change 95% D. Project Description 12. The additional financing focuses on restoring the livelihoods of those affected by the locusts. Of the US$35 million in this additional financing, US$30 million will fund activities under component 2, Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation to scale up the activities already described in the parent project. The remaining US$5 million will be allocated to component 4, Project Management which includes the associated costs of financial management, environmental and social management, and knowledge/communications. The specific activities are described below. 13. Component 2: Livelihoods Protection and Rehabilitation (US$30 million equivalent). The project will scale up all interventions under this component, which has the objective of protecting the poor and vulnerable in locust-affected areas from human capital and asset loss, enhancing their access to food, and restoring livelihoods that have been damaged or destroyed by swarms. Activities will continue promoting climate-smart crop and livestock practices for reduced GHG emissions and enhanced resilience. The value of the reduced GHG emissions under the additional financing is conservatively estimated to be about US$56.4 million. The project will support agroecosystem management approaches that enhance resilience of farm and landscape to changes in climatic conditions and the resultant pest threats. The interventions will support three main areas: (a) soil, land, and water management practices; (b) adoption of climate-smart practices for crops and livestock; and (c) livelihood restoration and drought mitigation. Up to 50 additional wards within the existing 15 project counties will be supported. The 2021 Long Rains Season Assessment Report by the Government of Kenya’s Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and the data on the extent of locust attack and drought across the counties will determine the additional number of wards to be financed within each of the 15 project counties. 14. The proposed interventions are consistent with those rolled out under component 2 of ELRP, therefore, the detailed intervention design and rollout strategy is part of the approved project implementation manual. Activities will be rolled out using the same three grant windows currently being used by the project: (a) grants for input support through the mechanism of micro-projects (as implemented under the ongoing Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Project (KCSAP, P154784) and the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP, P153349) to get crop and livestock production restored; (b) grants to strengthen farmer producer organizations (also as under KCSAP and NARIGP) to facilitate access to inputs, services, and output markets for restoring local livelihoods; and (c) grants for community and multi-community investments through the existing mechanism of sub-projects. The additional financing will enable the Project to increase the allocation for each micro-project, increase the number of community and multi community investments per county, and increase the number of wards the Project will be able to serve. 15. Component 4: Project Management (US$5 million, equivalent). This component will continue to support overall project management costs—including financial management, procurement, environmental and social management, communications, and local level coordination by the well-staffed PIU housed within MoALFC. Dec 07, 2021 Page 7 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya (P177843) Increased financial allocation to this component will accommodate the growing tasks related to project management including hiring technical service providers and monitoring and evaluation activities. As part of project management and coordination, the additional funding not only will enable farmers under component 2 to receive technical training on climate smart technologies, innovations and management practices developed by the Kenya Agriculture Livestock Research Organization, it will also enable the successful implementation of the additional activities outlined in the Stakeholder Engagement Plan and the Environment and Social Commitment Plan that have been developed for this additional financing. . Legal Operational Policies Triggered? No Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 Summary of Assessment of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts . E. Implementation Institutional and Implementation Arrangements . CONTACT POINT World Bank Melissa Williams Senior Rural Development Specialist Eva Hasiner Agriculture Economist Pierre Olivier Colleye Sr Agricultural Spec. Vinay Kumar Vutukuru Dec 07, 2021 Page 8 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya and Ethiopia (P177843) Senior Agriculture Economist Welela Ketema Sr Agricultural Spec. Borrower/Client/Recipient Republic of Djibouti Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh Minister of Economy and Finances, in Charge of Industry smibrathu@mefip.gov.dj Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Abebe Tadesse Feyisa Director atadessef@mofed.gov.et Republic of Uganda Keith Muhakanizi Permanent Secretary/Secretary to the Treasury ps@treasury.go.ug Republic of Kenya Dr. Thugge Kamau Principal Secretary ps@treasury.go.ke Implementing Agencies Uganda - Office of the Prime Minister Christine Guwatudde Kintu Permanent Secretary mail@gou.gov Uganda - Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Vincent Ssempijja Minister info@agriculture.go.ug Ethiopia Food Security Coordination Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources & Food Sintayehu Demissie Director sintusaron@yahoo.com Kenya Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperation Prof. Hamadi Boga Dec 07, 2021 Page 9 of 10 The World Bank Additional Financing to Emergency Locust Response Phase 1 - Kenya and Ethiopia (P177843) Principal Secretary, Crops psagriculture.research@kilimo.go.ke Djibouti Ministry of Agriculture, Water, Livestock and Fish Resources Ibrahim Elmi Secretary General ibrahimelmimed@gmail.com FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects APPROVAL Melissa Williams Eva Hasiner Task Team Leader(s): Pierre Olivier Colleye Vinay Kumar Vutukuru Welela Ketema Approved By Practice Manager/Manager: Country Director: Mohammed Dalil Essakali 21-Jan-2022 Dec 07, 2021 Page 10 of 10