Türkiye Green Growth Analytical and Advisory Program Thematic Paper 2 TÜRKIYE ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT A Whole-of-Economy Approach to Climate and Disaster Risks © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions. The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the authors. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank (including the European Union), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent, and therefore they are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Although the World Bank and GFDRR make reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from this document is at the user’s own risk and under no circumstances shall the World Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result from reliance on the data contained in this document. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions—The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2023. Türkiye Adaptation and Resilience Assessment: A Whole-of-Economy Approach to Climate and Disaster Risks. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design by Brad Amburn. Contents Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................................... v Abbreviations and acronyms......................................................................................................................... vii Summary: Türkiye Adaptation and Resilience Assessment: A Whole-of-Economy Approach to Climate and Disaster Risks........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Drivers of climate and disaster risk.................................................................................................................4 Adaptation and resilience assessment............................................................................................................ 5 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience............................................................ 8 Chapter 1: Adaptation and resilience to climate and disaster risks: a global imperative....................................11 Chapter 2: Localized impacts: physical risks and vulnerability to climate and natural hazards in Türkiye....... 16 Chapter 3: The Adaptation Principles framework............................................................................................... 29 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Chapter 4: Adaptation Principle 1: Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development.......................................................................................................................................................... 34 Priority Action 1.1: Increase economic productivity and growth, while keeping buffers for shocks ..........................35 Priority Action 1.2: Ensure that economic growth is inclusive..................................................................................36 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience .......................................................... 39 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 41 Chapter 5: Adaptation Principle 2: Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms............................................. 41 Priority Action 2.1: Assess climate and disaster risks, and make this information available.................................... 42 Priority Action 2.2: Clarify responsibilities and align incentives with A&R objectives...............................................43 Priority Action 2.3: Facilitate access to technical solutions for resilience through R&D and trade policies .............45 Priority Action 2.4: Ensure financing is available to all, and provide direct support to the poorest and most vulnerable people.....................................................................................................................................................46 Priority Action 2.5: Facilitate structural change in the economic system.................................................................47 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience .......................................................... 48 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 6: Adaptation Principle 3: Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical public assets and services................................................................................................................................................................. 50 Priority Action 3.1: Identify critical public assets and services ................................................................................ 51 Priority Action 3.2: Design and implement a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems and public assets .......................................................................................................................................52 Priority Action 3.3: Revise urban and land use plans to make them risk-informed ..................................................55 Priority Action 3.4: Increase the resilience of the agriculture sector and ensure food security ...............................55 Priority Action 3.5: Increase the resilience of water infrastructure and water resource management (WRM)......... 60 Priority Action 3.6: Increase the resilience of the health system..............................................................................64 Priority Action 3.7: Increase the resilience of the education system........................................................................65 Priority Action 3.8: Increase the resilience of forests and other natural ecosystems...............................................66 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience .......................................................... 70 73 Chapter 7: Adaptation Principle 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural disasters..........73 Priority Action 4.1: Save lives (and money) with hydromet, early warning, and emergency management systems....74 Priority Action 4.2: Provide all firms and households with risk management instruments.......................................75 Priority Action 4.3: Develop the insurance sector, building on public-private partnerships......................................75 Priority Action 4.4: Build a social protection system and make it responsive to shocks...........................................76 Priority Action 4.5: Help firms develop business continuity plans and financial preparedness.................................78 Priority Action 4.6: Be prepared to build back better after disasters, with contingency plans and financing...........79 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience.......................................................... 80 iii CONTENTS Chapter 8: Adaptation Principle 5: Manage financial and macrofiscal issues................................................... 82 Priority Action 5.1: Include contingent liabilities from natural disasters and environmental shocks in the planning and budgeting process.............................................................................................................................................83 Priority Action 5.2: Develop a financial strategy to manage contingent liabilities, combining multiple instruments.83 Priority Action 5.3: Anticipate and plan for long-term macroeconomic impacts......................................................84 Priority Action 5.4: Communicate and mitigate the disaster and climate risk exposure of the financial sector.......85 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience .......................................................... 88 90 Chapter 9: Adaptation Principle 6: Application: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress..... 90 Priority Action 6.1: Create a strong institutional and legal framework, with appropriate stakeholder involvement... 91 Priority Action 6.2: Design an A&R strategy with prioritized actions........................................................................93 Priority Action 6.3: Set concrete sector-level targets to guide implementation by line ministries and local governments ...........................................................................................................................................................94 Priority Action 6.4: Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks and align them with adaptation targets...................................................................................................................................................95 Priority Action 6.5: Allocate appropriate funding to the adaptation strategy...........................................................96 Priority Action 6.6: Track progress over time, and review and revise the strategy....................................................99 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience .......................................................... 99 Chapter 10: Türkiye A&R assessment stocktake................................................................................................102 References..................................................................................................................................................107 Appendix A: Heatmap of the drivers of climate and disaster risks in Türkiye................................................. 114 Appendix B: Türkiye A&R scorecard............................................................................................................. 115 Appendix C: Traffic light system.................................................................................................................. 116 iv CONTENTS Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a World Bank team led by Stavros Papageorgiou (Senior Natural Resource Management Specialist) and composed of Clara Ariza (Senior Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Consultant), Jia Li (Senior Climate Change Economist), and Sophie Anne De Vries Robbe (Disaster Risk Management Consultant). Sectoral contributions were provided by Alanna Simpson (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Ayse Erkan (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Salih Bugra Erdurmus (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Verena Schaidreiter (Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Canan Yildiz (Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Sanyu Lutalo (Senior Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Regassa Ensermu Namara (Senior Water Economist), Luz Berania Diaz Rios (Senior Agribusiness Specialist), Murad Gurmeric (Senior Transport Engineer), Andrew Losos (Senior Transport Specialist), Yasemin Orucu (Senior Energy Specialist), Merve Yurtkuran (Environmental Specialist), Emre Dolek (Environmental Consultant), Berengere Prince (Lead Natural Resources Management Specialist), Melanie Argimon Pistre (Natural Resource Management Consultant), Joanna Masic (Lead Urban Specialist), Ahmet Kindap (Urban Specialist), Zoe Elena Trohanis (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Bontje Marie Zangerling (Senior Urban Specialist), Florent John McIsaac (Climate Change Economist), Charl Jooste (Senior Economist, Macroeconomics and Debt), Hans Anand Beck (Lead Country Economist), Pinar Yasar (Senior Economist, Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management), Javier Baez (Senior Economist, Poverty and Equity), Claire Hollweg (Senior Economist, Poverty and Equity), Metin Nebiler (Economist, Poverty and Equity), Erdem Atas (Economist, Poverty and Equity), Andrea Fitri Woodhouse (Senior Social Development Specialist), Etkin Ozen (Senior Financial Sector Specialist), Heba Elgazzar (Program Leader, Human Development), Joel Reyes (Senior Institutional Development Specialist), Ayse Gunay Gokben (Education Consultant), Sema Safir Sumer (Human Development Specialist), Nadwa Rafeh (Senior Health Specialist), Sarah Coll-Black (Senior Economist, Social Protection and Labor), Mattia Makovec (Senior Economist, Social Protection and Labor), Sirma Demir Seker (Senior Economist, Social Protection and Labor), Mauro Testaverde (Senior Economist, Social Protection and Labor), Efsan Nas Ozen (Social Protection and Labor Consultant), Seda Aroymak (Senior Financial Management Specialist), Zeynep Lalik (Senior Financial Management Specialist), Xingjun Ye (Governance Analyst), Salih Kemal Kalyoncu (Senior Procurement Specialist), Burak Taskin (Procurement Specialist). Gediz Kaya (Climate Change Consultant) provided complementary data and information and Mi Lin (Young Professional) provided the figures and data analysis. The report was peer reviewed by Antoine Bavandi (Senior Financial Sector Specialist), Tatiana Skalon (Financial Sector Specialist), Alastair Norris (Financial Sector Consultant), Melanie Simone Kappes (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), and Arame Tall (Senior Environmental Specialist). Additional reviews were provided by Professor Erinç Yeldan (Kadir Has University), Professor Ebru Voyvoda (Middle East Technical University), and Ozgur Turkeri (Voice Secondee from the Ministry of Treasury and Finance of Türkiye). The team is thankful to Stephane Hallegatte (Senior Climate Change Adviser) and Julie Rozenberg (Senior Economist, Sustainable Development) for their overall guidance as co-authors of The Adaptation Principles. The report was edited by Lucy Southwood and designed by Brad Amburn. It was developed with financial support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The team would like to thank government institutions and development partners for their collaboration and constructive inputs, particularly the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, its Presidency of Climate Change and ILBANK; the Disaster and Emergency v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Management Presidency; the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and its General Directorate of Water Management, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks, General Directorate of Agricultural Reform, and General Directorate of Forestry; the Ministry of Family and Social Services; the Ministry of Industry and Technology; the Ministry of National Education; the Ministry of Trade and its General Directorate of International Agreements and European Union; the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources; the Turkish Statistical Institute; the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and its Revenue Administration Presidency; the Presidency of Strategy and Budget Office; the Banks Association of Türkiye; the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye; and the United Nations Development Program in Türkiye. This report was prepared under the Türkiye Green Growth Analytical and Advisory Program co- led by Laurent Debroux (Sector Leader, Sustainable Development), Stephane Hallegatte (Senior Climate Change Adviser), and Stavros Papageorgiou (Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist). It was prepared under the guidance of Steven Schonberger (Regional Director, Sustainable Development), Kseniya Lvovsky (Practice Manager, Environment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy), and Auguste Kouame (Country Director, Türkiye) with assistance of Linh Nguyen (Senior Program Assistant) and Ulker Karamullaoglu (Program Assistant). vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Abbreviations and acronyms A&R adaptation and resilience AAL average annual economic loss AFAD Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (Turkish acronym) AR6 Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ARAS Disaster Risk Reduction System of Türkiye (Turkish acronym) ASP adaptive social protection BCP business continuity plan BIDEP Regional Climate Change Action Plan (Turkish acronym) BRSA Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency CCACB Climate Change and Adaptation Coordination Board CCAP Climate Change Action Plan CBRT Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye CCDR Country Climate and Development Report ÇEM General Directorate of Desertification and Erosion Control (Turkish acronym) COP26 26th Conference of the Parties CSA climate-smart agriculture DASK Natural Disasters Insurance Institution (Turkish acronym) DRM disaster risk management DSI State Hydraulic Works (Turkish acronym) DTM Digital Terrain Model EAPI Energy Architecture Performance Index EP&R emergency preparedness and response EU European Union EWS early warning systems GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas emissions GIS geographic information system HCI Human Capital Index hydromet hydrometeorological ICT information and communications technology IHR International Health Regulations IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRAP Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (Turkish acronym) ISAS Integrated Social Assistance System KAYES Public Structures Inventory System (Turkish acronym) KENTGES Urban Development Strategy (Turkish acronym) LPI Logistics Performance Index LTS long-term strategy M&E monitoring and evaluation MoAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MoEU Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (now the MoEUCC) MoEUCC Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change (formerly the MoEU) MoFSS Ministry of Family and Social Services MoH Ministry of Health MoIT Ministry of Industry and Technology MoLSS Ministry of Labor and Social Security MoNE Ministry of National Education MoT Ministry of Trade MoTF Ministry of Treasury and Finance MoTI Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure MPAs marine protected areas NbS nature-based solutions vii A B B R E V I AT I O N S A N D A C R O N Y M S ND-GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative NDC nationally determined contribution NDP National Development Plan NWIS national water information system OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OGM General Directorate of Forestry (Turkish acronym) OIZ organized industrial zone PCC Presidency of Climate Change PDTO Presidency Digital Transformation Office PM2.5 particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter PPP public private partnership R&D research and development RCP representative concentration pathway SBO Strategy and Budget Office SECC Sustainable Environment and Climate Change SEEA System of Environmental Economic Accounting SER socioeconomic resilience SKI General Directorate of Water and Wastewater Administration (Turkish acronym) SME small and medium-sized enterprise SOE state-owned enterprise SP social protection SSPs shared socioeconomic pathways SYGM Directorate for Water Management (Turkish acronym) TABB Turkish Disaster Information Bank (Turkish acronym) TARBIL Agriculture Monitoring and Information System (Turkish acronym) TARISM Turkish Agriculture Insurance Pool (Turkish acronym) TCA Turkish Court of Accounts TCIP Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool TGNA Turkish Grand National Assembly TL Turkish lira TLS traffic light system TSKB Industrial Development Bank of Türkiye (Turkish acronym) TSMS Turkish State Meteorological Service Turkstat Turkish Statistics Institute UHI urban heat island effect UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change US$ United States dollars WHO World Health Organization WRM Water Resource Management WSS water supply and sanitation viii A B B R E V I AT I O N S A N D A C R O N Y M S S SUMMARY >> Türkiye Adaptation and Resilience Assessment: A Whole-of-Economy Approach to Climate and Disaster Risks Climate change impacts Intergovernmental Panel on Climate are widespread and rapidly Change established that the planned intensifying across the world. national mitigation strategies are not enough to limit global warming well The frequency of extreme meteorological below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, events leading to disasters is expected and that the magnitude and rate of to rise globally, increasingly affecting climate change and associated risks and local and national economies and impacts depend strongly on near-term communities through direct loss and mitigation and adaptation efforts (IPCC damage, and indirectly through changes 2022). This calls for urgent action to in food prices and food security water simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas availability and accessibility, health, emissions while creating the necessary labor productivity, and other pathways. conditions for enabling adaptation and Direct and indirect climate and disaster building resilience across sectors and impacts disproportionately affect the levels of government and society, to poor and vulnerable segments of society. multiple—and practically unavoidable— In its latest assessment report, the impacts. 1 SUMMARY Strengthening the enabling environment for adaptation and resilience (A&R) can support Türkiye’s efforts to resume its development trajectory on a green, resilient, and inclusive pathway in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing climate change and natural hazard risks. Türkiye is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other environmental hazards due to its geographic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions. In recent decades, Türkiye has been affected by earthquakes and increasing hydrometeorological (hydromet) disasters, including coastal and river flooding, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and landslides, with losses to lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, and the economy. Compared to other Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, Türkiye has high socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure to climate extremes and disasters. In the last decade, it has taken steps to establish and strengthen disaster risk management (DRM) and climate adaptation planning, policy development, and implementation at the national, subnational, and sectoral levels, as outlined in its National Climate Change Action Plan (2011–23), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23), and more recently, its Green Deal Action Plan. At the 26th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Türkiye ratified the Paris Agreement, announcing its 2053 net zero emissions target and laying the foundations for its transition toward a green economy. This report provides an assessment of A&R preparedness in Türkiye and the enabling policy, institutional, and macrofiscal environment. It presents a review of Türkiye’s development, DRM, and climate change adaptation-related policies, plans, and programs, and identifies priority areas and interventions for further reducing vulnerability and strengthening national resilience to climate change, natural disasters, and other related external shocks. It aims to inform and support Türkiye’s efforts to transition to a green economy and build resilience to climate shocks and disasters, while enabling a rapid, resilient, and inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The assessment builds on the close and long-lasting engagement between the government of Türkiye and the World Bank Group and informs the Country Climate and Development Report. The assessment offers a whole-of-government perspective on priority areas for adaptation and resilience that can inform ongoing and planned national climate and development policy processes. Over 150 indicators were selected, assessed, and rated as nascent, emerging, or established through a traffic light system (TLS) using the World Bank’s Adaptation Principles framework (Hallegatte et al. 2020) to evaluate readiness and identify gaps in capacity and areas for further policy development around six principles and a set of priority actions for effective climate adaptation and resilience in Türkiye: 1 Adaptation Principle 1: Lay the foundations through rapid, robust, and inclusive development 2 Adaptation Principle 2: Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms 3 Adaptation Principle 3: Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical assets and services 4 Adaptation Principle 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural hazards 5 Adaptation Principle 5: Manage financial and macrofiscal issues 6 Adaptation Principle 6: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress Considering Türkiye’s high level of exposure to earthquakes, the assessment was extended to also address seismic and other natural disaster risks. 2 SUMMARY Although Türkiye has made good progress in several areas to support adaptation and resilience to climate and disaster risks, this assessment finds that its overall enabling environment is still emerging. Based on the 155 indicators used to assess 31 priority actions and six adaptation principles, the results show that, at aggregate level, four principles ranked as emerging, two as nascent, and none as established (figure S.1). The least advanced areas were those linked the conditions required to facilitate the adaptation of people and firms (Adaptation Principle 2) and manage financial and macrofiscal issues (Adaptation Principle 5). Of the 31 priority actions, 20 were ranked as emerging, 10 as nascent, and only one—related to the key elements of an A&R strategy—was ranked as established. A summary of the assessment by adaptation principle is presented here, followed by detailed results for the priority actions. These findings indicate that Türkiye needs to make progress across most priority actions and adaptation principles for effective vulnerability reduction and to build resilience to climate change, natural disasters, and other external shocks. FIGURE S.1 >> Summary of A&R assessment for Türkiye a. A&R scores per Adaptation Principle Adaptation Principle 1: Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development Adaptation Principle 6: 1.96 Adaptation Principle 2: Application: Prioritization, Facilitate the adaptation of implementation, and people and firms monitoring progress 1.83 1.62 1.56 Adaptation Principle 5: 1.90 Adaptation Principle 3: Manage financial and Adapt urban and land use macrofiscal issues plans and protect critical 1.88 public assets and services Adaptation Principle 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural hazards b. A&R scores per indicator used in the assessment Adaptation Principle 1 7 5 11 Adaptation Principle 2 1 14 8 Adaptation Principle 3 7 21 11 Adaptation Principle 4 5 14 6 Adaptation Principle 5 8 6 Adaptation Principle 6 2 11 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 Share of indicators (%)  Established  Emerging  Nascent Note: The number in each bar shows the number of indicators per category. 3 SUMMARY DRIVERS OF CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK Surface area (sq. km): 769,630 GDP per capita (2020): US$ 8,536.4 Total population (2019): 83,430,000 Summary of selected climate and disaster physical risk drivers for Türkiye. The ratings (high, medium, and Low low) are all relative to other OECD countries, except for the probability of natural shocks, which is from Medium Thinkhazard.org. See Appendix C for more details on data sources and methods applied for each indicator. High PROBABILITY OF N AT U R A L S H O C K S EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY Coastal flood Population exposed to P EOP L E earthquakes River flood Poverty rate Population exposed to Urban flood floods Inequality (Gini index) Earthquake Poor population (> Adaptation and resilience to climate and disaster risks: a global imperative Climate change impacts are widespread and rapidly cold extremes (IPCC 2021). Human- intensifying across the world. induced changes in the global climate system affect every inhabited region Global surface temperature has in the world today and will continue increased more rapidly since 1970 than to do so into the future. The latest in any other 50 year-period in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 2,000 years, and the past four decades Change (IPCC) report by Working have each been warmer than the one Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and before (IPCC 2021). Indeed, 2020 and Vulnerability confirms that climate 2021 represent the second and sixth change and extremes are already hottest years on record globally (NOAA causing widespread and compound 2022). Global mean sea level rise has adverse impacts on human health, been faster since 1900 than any century livelihoods, food security, ecosystems, in the past 3,000 years (IPCC 2021). the built environment, and the Since the 1950s, most land regions economy. Some systems already face have experienced more frequent, or are fast approaching “hard” limits more intense hot extremes (including to adaptation—that is, some climate heatwaves) and heavy precipitation impacts are already too severe to adapt events, and less frequent and milder to (IPCC 2022). 11 C H A P T E R 1 : A G L O B A L I M P E R AT I V E Natural disaster risks increase with climate change. Along with temperature rise, the number of weather, climate, and water-related disasters has also increased globally by a factor of five in the past 50 years. Between 1979 and 2019, these hazards accounted for more than 11,000 disasters—about 50 percent of all disasters—as well as 45 percent of all reported deaths, and 74 percent of all economic losses reported worldwide, causing on average US$202 million in losses daily (WMO 2021; figure 1.1). Damage from extreme weather events caused US$280 billion in 2021 alone (Sims and Hübner 2022). With increasing temperatures and through changes in the global hydrological cycle, climate change is expected to drive more frequent and more extreme weather events, further increasing the risk of disaster in the future. It is also projected to impact natural and socioeconomic systems through other, more subtle yet major effects, such as altering crop growing seasons, biodiversity and ecosystem services, streamflows, quantity and quality of water resources, and sea level rise (IPCC 2022). FIGURE 1.1 >> Number of disasters and economic losses globally, by hazard type (1970–2019) a. Reported disasters (total = 11,072) 4,000  Drought 4% 6% 3,536  Extreme temperature 5% 3,500 3,165  Flood 3,000  Landslide 35% 2,500 2,250  Storm  Wildfire 2,000 1,410 1,500 44% 1,000 711 500 6% 0 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 b. Reported economic losses (US$, billions) (total = US$3.6 trillion) 4% 7% 1,500 1,381 3% 1,200 942 900 852.3 31% 600 54% 289.3 300 175.4 0 1% 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 Source: WMO 2021 Climate change and disaster impacts are unequally distributed. Short- and longer-term climate and disaster impacts interact with existing social vulnerabilities and affect countries and populations unequally. The poor disproportionately bear the greatest burden of climate change and disaster events, as they often live in high-risk areas, depend on hazard-exposed resources, have fewer means to reduce risks, and lack the capacity to relocate, rebuild or recuperate their assets and livelihoods after hazard impacts. They also receive less support than non-poor people from financial instruments and incur well-being losses that go well beyond traditional economic estimates of asset and production losses (Hallegatte et al. 2017). The many impacts of climate change may push up to 132 million people into poverty by 2030 (World Bank 2020a). While countries are increasing their pledges and efforts to mitigate climate change as climate and disaster risks intensify, some impacts are already irreversible. Global surface temperature will continue to increase in the next few decades, even with significant reduction of greenhouse 12 C H A P T E R 1 : A G L O B A L I M P E R AT I V E gas (GHG) emissions today (IPCC 2021). In its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC established that the planned mitigation and adaptation strategies submitted by the Parties to the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to limit global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels required to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change (IPCC 2021; UNFCCC 2021a). Even under the most optimistic mitigation scenario, where net zero emissions are reached by around 2050, global warming is expected to continue in the short to medium term and potentially stabilize at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (IPCC 2021). This will cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present compound risks to people and ecosystems (IPCC 2022). The expected impacts of accelerating climate change call for urgent action. Strengthening adaptation and resilience to climate change and natural hazards is a global imperative. The findings of the IPCC AR6 indicate that the magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, with profound implications for development policies. The report stresses the need for increased mitigation ambition to reduce GHG emissions and stabilize global surface temperatures, and the urgency for national efforts to accelerate adaptation and build resilience in all systems and at all levels to multiple, practically inevitable impacts. This involves efforts to accelerate the planning, funding and implementation of resilience measures and adaptation interventions to keep pace with escalating impacts arising from the physical risks of climate change (box 1.1). Global finance for adaptation is not enough to reduce growing risks. A recent estimate set public and private climate finance flows in and between countries in 2019–20 at US$632 billion a year (about 0.7 percent of global gross domestic product or GDP), with private financing accounting for 49 percent of the flows. Of this, US$571 billion were allocated to mitigation, and only US$46 billion to adaptation investments—almost exclusively from public sources—with the remaining invested in projects with both mitigation and adaptation benefits (Buchner et al. 2021). By the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the UNFCCC in 2021, the climate finance goal agreed in the Paris Agreement of reaching US$100 billion a year by 2020, with half of this committed for adaptation, had not been met (UNFCCC 2021b). This is cause of concern, as recent estimates indicate that developing countries’ adaptation costs and needs are far greater than previously estimated, and five to ten times larger than current international finance support for adaptation (UNEP 2021). At COP26, countries agreed to increase their climate ambition. In response to the findings of the IPCC AR6 and lagging climate finance, the Glasgow Climate Pact commits countries to revisit and strengthen their 2030 national climate targets by the end 2022 in an effort to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C. Developed countries also committed to double adaptation finance by 2025, raising their pledges to support developing countries in their growing adaptation needs. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic opens up opportunities for adaptation and resilience. COVID-19 has caused major loss of life, loss of development gains, forced hundreds of millions of people into extreme poverty (World Bank 2020a) and led governments and businesses to draw on reserves and issue new debt to deal with the economic downturn. This has increased structural vulnerabilities and weakened people’s and nations’ capacities to address the compound risks of climate change, pandemics, and other hazards, and to recover from future external shocks (UNEP 2021). But the COVID-19 recovery process also offers a unique opportunity for countries to apply the lessons learned from managing the pandemic and use recovery funding and policies as vehicles for accelerating climate action and risk reduction, narrowing the adaptation gap, and transitioning to greener, more resilient, and more inclusive development (World Bank 2021b). 13 C H A P T E R 1 : A G L O B A L I M P E R AT I V E BOX 1.1 >> » Hazard is the potential » Vulnerability is the propensity occurrence of a natural or or predisposition to be adversely Key definitions human-induced physical event affected, including sensitivity or used in this report or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. impacts, as well as damage and » Adaptation is the process of loss to property, infrastructure, adjusting to actual or expected livelihoods, service provision, climate and its effects. In human ecosystems, and environmental systems, adaptation seeks resources. to moderate or avoid harm or » Risk is the potential for adverse exploit beneficial opportunities. consequences for human or In some natural systems, human ecological systems, recognizing intervention may facilitate the diversity of values and adjustment to expected climate objectives associated with such and its effects. systems. » Resilience is the capacity » Physical risks refer to the direct of social, economic, and effects of a changing climate, environmental systems to cope and include slow-onset hazards, with a hazardous event or trend such as increased temperature or disturbance, responding and changes in rainfall, and more or reorganizing in ways that sudden hazards, such as those maintain their essential function, caused by extreme weather identity, and structure, while events. also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and » Transition risks are primarily transformation. driven by the global transition to a low-carbon future, such » Socioeconomic resilience (SER) as shifts in technology, fuel is the capacity to mitigate the availability, and changes in trade impact of disaster-related asset dynamics—for example, due to well-being losses, including consumer preferences or tariffs people’s ability to maintain on emissions-intensive goods. consumption for the duration of recovery, their ability to save » Residual risk is the disaster or borrow to rebuild their asset risk that remains in unmanaged stock, and decreasing returns in form, even when effective consumption (a US$1 reduction disaster risk reduction measures in consumption affects poorer are in place, and for which people more than richer ones). emergency response and recovery capacities must be maintained. Sources: Financial Stability Board 2016; Feyen et al. 2020; Hallegatte et al. 2017; IPCC 2014; IPCC 2022; UNDRR, n.d. As part of its new Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) 2021–25, the World Bank Group is prioritizing adaptation and resilience on several fronts. Highlighting the centrality of adaptation in supporting countries to meet their development needs while mitigating the impacts of climate change (World Bank Group 2021a), the new plan is in line with the strategic directions set in the World Bank Group Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience (World Bank 2019d). At strategic level, this entails working with client countries to support climate and development diagnostics, planning, and policies to align their financial flows with the Paris Agreement’s low-carbon and climate-resilient goals. Key sectoral priorities include resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and food security, nature-based solutions (NbS) and the blue economy1, resilient cities, supporting country governments to increase the resilience of key 1  The blue economy is the sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and jobs while preserving the health of marine ecosystems (World Bank and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2017). 14 C H A P T E R 1 : A G L O B A L I M P E R AT I V E industries through business continuity planning, and reducing shocks and protecting livelihoods through hydrometeorological (hydromet) services and early warning systems (EWS). The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) is a new World Bank Group core diagnostic tool aimed at integrating climate and development. Firmly anchored in a country’s development goals, CCDRs take a multisector, whole-of-government approach to help countries accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy while adapting and building resilience to climate change. CCDRs explore synergies and trade-offs between climate objectives and macroeconomic policies and investments, and identify opportunities, reforms, and policy instruments to leverage public and private sector resources to address the physical and transition risks of climate change (World Bank Group 2021b). As part of the Türkiye CCDR (World Bank Group 2022) this report provides an assessment of adaptation and resilience (A&R) preparedness and the country’s enabling policy, institutional, and macrofiscal environment. It provides a review of Türkiye’s development, disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation-related policies, plans, and programs, and identifies priority areas and interventions for further reducing vulnerability and strengthening national resilience to the physical risks of climate change, natural hazards, and other related external shocks, with a special emphasis on the five key areas addressed in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23). It aims to inform and support Türkiye’s efforts to transition to a green economy and build resilience to climate shocks and disasters, while enabling a rapid, resilient, and inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The assessment was elaborated in the context of close and long-lasting engagement between the government of Türkiye and the World Bank Group. The assessment offers a whole-of-government perspective on priority areas for adaptation and resilience that can inform ongoing and planned national climate and development policy processes. These include, among others, implementing the New Economy Program (2021–23) and its Green Deal Action Plan, developing its 12th National Development Plan (NDP), 2023–30 CCAP, 2050 Climate Change Strategy, updating its NDC under the UNFCCC, and the next cycle of its National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan, due to be updated soon. The indicator framework developed for the assessment could also serve as a tool for monitoring national progress on A&R-building in the mid to long term. The report is structured in 10 chapters as follows: » Chapter 1 offers a global perspective on the imperative of climate and disaster adaptation and resilience. » Chapter 2 provides a summary of selected climate change and disaster physical risk drivers for Türkiye. » Chapter 3 describes the methodological approach of the assessment. » Chapters 4–9 present the key results of the assessment and policy recommendations for the main priority actions under each adaptation principle. » Chapter 10 provides an overview of the results and overall conclusions. » Appendixes A–C provide a heatmap of the drivers of climate and disaster risk in Türkiye compared to other OECD countries, the A&R country scorecard for each priority action, and definitions of the indicators included in the TLS used for the assessment. The report also includes six deep dives on key aspects of adaptation and resilience in Türkiye, as identified in its National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. 15 C H A P T E R 1 : A G L O B A L I M P E R AT I V E 2 CHAPTER 2 >> Localized impacts: physical risks and vulnerability to climate and natural hazards in Türkiye Türkiye has made remarkable expectancy increased, as the national development progress in the economy transitioned to upper middle- past two decades and has built a income status.3 Throughout 2021, the resilient economy; but it remains Turkish economy achieved a remarkable vulnerable to shocks.2 performance, with 11 percent growth in GDP. But despite the strength and Since the early 2000s, strong economic resilience of its economy, the country’s growth, supported by structural reforms economic growth and development and economic programs targeting gains remain vulnerable to shocks, vulnerable groups and marginalized as shown by the recent period of regions, more than halved the incidence macrofinancial volatility and to some of poverty and extreme poverty in the extent the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, country. At the same time, employment, they might be exposed, in the short and income per capita, access to public long term, to the impacts of climate services, school enrollment, and life change and natural hazards. 2  The ratings in this chapter (high, medium, and low) are all relative to OECD countries, except for the probability of natural shocks, which is from Thinkhazard! (https://www.thinkhazard.org). See Appendix C for more details on data sources and methods applied for each indicator. 3  World Bank Türkiye Overview. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/overview. 16 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S Macroeconomic volatility and a significant share of the population with low adaptive and coping capacity are underlying factors of socioeconomic vulnerability. In recent decades, Türkiye has achieved rapid economic growth and robust public service provision at levels similar to other Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Although its economic growth is among OECD’s highest, and its GDP per capita reached US$8,536 in 2020, there is significant scope to improve income inequality (Gini index of 41.9 in 2019), and poverty rates have recently increased, reaching 15 percent of the population in 2019.4,5 About 80 percent of Türkiye’s extreme poor live in rural areas (World Bank Group 2016). The country also hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, having offered temporary protection to approximately 3.6 million Syrians who have been integrated into cities, towns and villages and make up about 4 percent of the population (UNHCR 2018, n.d.). With a growing population, emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have been increasing, with associated health risks. Levels of air pollution result in 47 deaths per 100,000 population each year, which puts Türkiye in the highest tercile of OECD countries (Sachs et al. 2021). While Türkiye ranks better than most of its peers within the OECD in terms of trade deficit and gross debt-to-GDP ratio, its volatility of per- capita GDP growth and lack of economic diversification places it within the highest tercile of OECD countries (The Growth Lab 2021).6 The contribution of agriculture, forestry, and fishing to GDP—all sectors that are highly exposed to climate variability and climate change—is relatively high (6.7 percent) compared to the OECD. A detailed assessment of Türkiye’s transport system, conducted through simulation modeling and analysis of multi-hazard risks to Türkiye’s road and railway infrastructure including a criticality analysis of the national transport network, concluded that it has higher-than-average vulnerability (expressed as average consumer losses from single link disruptions); and that increasing its resilience will be expensive (World Bank Group 2022). These factors contribute to the vulnerability of Türkiye’s socioeconomic systems to the impacts of natural hazards compared to other OECD countries (table 2.1). TABLE 2.1 >> Drivers of socioeconomic vulnerability in Türkiye Poverty rate Transport network vulnerability Inequality (Gini index) Volatility of per capita GDP growth Mortality rate attributed to ambient air pollution Lack of economic diversification Forcibly displaced people (% of total population) Current account deficit Agriculture, forestry, and fishing (% of GDP) Debt (share of GDP) Sources: UNHCR 2018; The Growth Lab 2021; IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Databases; World Development Indicators; UN Open Data Hub: SDG 3.9.1; Koks et al. forthcoming Poor households in Türkiye are structurally more exposed to weather shocks and less equipped to bear the direct and indirect effects of—bounce back from—natural disasters. For example, data from the 2019 Survey on Income and Living Conditions (TurkStat 2019) show that households below the international poverty line of US$5.5 a day (2011 purchasing power parity) are more dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods.7 On average, close to 10 percent of their income is from agriculture, almost three times more than the middle class. These households also have a 4  World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Calculations are based on the national poverty line; when measured against the international poverty line of reference for upper-middle-income countries (US$5.50 per person per day), Türkiye’s poverty rate in 2019 was 10.2%. 5  The MoFSS estimates that cash transfers, unemployment insurance and other social assistance programs prevented poverty rates from rising much higher during the COVID-19 pandemic. 6  IMF WEO Databases. www.imf.org. 7  Note that in 2021, the highest increase in mean annual income (29.2%) was observed in the agriculture sector (TurkStat 2022). 17 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S lower stock of human capital, reducing their capacity to diversify income and transition to sectors that are less affected by major shocks. Their jobs are less stable, they are more likely to engage in seasonal and casual employment, work in informal activities, and endure longer unemployment spells. Food and non-alcoholic beverages account for 41 percent of total expenditure in the poorest households, three times more than in the richest households (Baez et al. 2021). Their asset holdings are more limited and less resilient to natural hazards, as they are built in marginal and hazardous areas, with little consideration of seismic and other natural hazards and risks, and not complying with building codes. Over half of poor households (55.3 percent) live in dwellings with a leaking roof, damp walls, floors or foundations, or rotting window frames or floor—twice as many as middle-class households (27.5 percent) (TurkStat 2019). Due to its geological, topographic, climatic, and socioeconomic characteristics, Türkiye is highly exposed to the impacts of natural hazards and prone to disasters. The high probability of earthquakes, floods, landslides, extreme heat, water scarcity, wildfires, and other natural hazards threatens lives, livelihoods, natural resources, and the economy across the national territory (figure 2.1). F I G U R E 2 .1 > > Probability of natural shocks in Türkiye n High n Medium n Low n Very low River flood Urban flood Coastal flood Earthquake Landslide Water scarcity Extreme heat Wildfire Tsunami Source: ThinkHazard! In the past two decades, the frequency of extreme climate events has increased and new natural hazards have emerged. The first cyclone in Türkiye’s modern history was recorded in 2018 and 2020 saw a historical record of 984 extreme events (MoAF TSMS 2021), exceeding the previous year’s record of 935 events. Although not all recorded climate events resulted in disasters, and no studies are yet available to attribute them to climate change, there is a clear trend of rising hazardous events (figure 2.2). 18 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S Earthquakes are Türkiye’s most frequent and devastating disaster events. Their frequency exceeded all other disaster events recorded between 1985 and 2020 (figures 2.3 and 2.4). During this period, Türkiye was affected by 42 earthquake disasters, with on average one 5-6 magnitude earthquake disaster per year (World Bank Group 2016; EM-DAT8). About 95 percent of the territory and 70 percent of the population are proximal to an active fault line, with 21.2 million people (27.1 percent of the 2015 population) exposed to 1-in-250-year earthquake (GFDRR 2016), and 42 percent of the transport network exposed to seismic risks (World Bank 2019c). Türkiye’s population and economic center, Istanbul, is located near the North Anatolian Fault and at high seismic risk; in 1999, a 7.6 earthquake near Istanbul caused over 18,000 deaths, affected more than 1.3 million people, and left an excess of US$28 billion in damages (World Bank 2021c). On average, each year earthquakes take 1,000 lives, affect 1 million people, and represent a risk to assets equal to 0.09 percent of GDP and to well-being up to 0.21 percent of GDP (GFDRR 2016; World Bank 2021c). F I G U R E 2 .2 > > Annual number of extreme meteorological events in Türkiye (1972–2020) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Hail Storm and tornado Heavy rain/flood Heavy snow Frost Lightning Avalanche and landslide Fog Drought, heat/cold waves Sources: OECD 2019b; MoAF TSMS 2021 FIGURE 2.3 >> FIGURE 2.4 > > Natural disasters, excluding drought, reported in Number of people affected by natural disasters in Türkiye (1985–2020) Türkiye (1985–2020) 1% 100 million 6% 4% 1 million 8%  Earthquakes (42) 38%  Floods (37) 10,000  Landslides (11) 10%  Storms (9)  Wildfires (5) 100  Extreme temperatures (7)  Other (1) 1 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 33%  Flood  Earthquake  Wildfire  Epidemic  Extreme temperature  Landslide  Storm  Mass movement (dry) Source: EM-DAT Note: The total number of recorded events is in parentheses. Source: CCKP Floods, including flash floods, are the country’s second most frequent cause of disaster. Between 1985 and 2020, it recorded 37 flood events, primarily affecting the coastal plains.8 In Türkiye, 14.2 percent of the population—including 13.7 percent of the poor—and 6.4 percent of the transport network are exposed to flooding (Hallegatte et al. 2019; Rentschler and Salhab 2020), affecting 8  www.emdat.be. 19 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S 600,000 people a year on average (GFDRR 2016) and posing an annual risk to assets and well- being equivalent to 0.1 and 0.3 percent of GDP, respectively. In 2021, floods in the Kastamonu, Sinop, and Bartin provinces caused several deaths, multiple injuries, and significant damage to critical infrastructure, leaving 300 villages without electricity (BBC News 2021). Storms, landslides, drought, and wildfires are also frequent causes of disaster in Türkiye. After earthquakes, landslides are the most destructive hazard, triggered by floods and storms (MoEUCC 2020). Drought events have led to agricultural losses, freshwater shortages, and drying and shrinking of lakes (such as Lake Tuz) and wetlands. Türkiye experienced severe droughts in 2007–08 and 2013–14 (Kumaz 2014), with the earlier drought affecting more than 435,000 farmers and resulting in losses of US$1.4–2.2 billion (Bagherzadeh and Shigemitsu 2021). With 2020 the driest of the past five years, at the beginning of 2021, some regions still faced severe drought, and numerous reservoirs around Istanbul reached their lowest water storage levels in 15 years, presenting a risk to the city’s water supply (Patel 2021). Although direct drought-related losses may be lower than earthquake losses, the indirect effects of drought can be catastrophic, particularly for vulnerable communities. Wildfires are another growing threat in the wildland- urban interface, particularly in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions. In 2021 alone, wildfires burned in 139,500 hectares of forest across 54 provinces (OGM 2021), representing the largest recorded area burned in a single fire season (box 2.1). Table 2.2 summarizes selected indicators BOX 2 .1 >> The summer of 2021 was one of the Preventing and abating wildfires worst wildfire seasons in Türkiye’s will become increasingly important, Wildfires in history. Between July 28 and particularly in areas adjacent to Türkiye August 12, 357 forest fires burned across multiple areas, devastating populated centers. This involves interventions to strengthen 139,500 hectares. (figure 2.5). wildfire management, including The fires led to the evacuation of policies and incentives to promote multiple villages and resulted in fire-smart landscape approaches, the death of 11 firefighters and the invest in fire prevention and hospitalization of many people. suppression, implement good fire management practices, collect While only 10 percent of all wildfire data, and analyze, review, fires in Türkiye are natural, the and strengthen stakeholder higher temperatures and drier preparedness, coordination and conditions caused by climate participation in wildfire prevention change are expected to increase and management. the duration of fire weather conditions, increasing wildfire risks. FIGURE 2.5 >> Area burned by wildfires in Türkiye (1990–2021) 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Hectares 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1993 1995 1996 2008 2009 2018 2019 2003 2005 2006 2013 2015 2016 1990 1991 2000 1994 2001 2010 2011 1997 2004 2014 1992 2007 2017 2002 2012 2020 1998 1999 2021 Sources: OGM (1990–2021 data) 20 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S TABLE 2.2 >> TABLE 2 .3 > > Exposure to natural hazards in Türkiye Risk to assets and well-being in Türkiye Population exposed to floods Annual average well-being losses Population exposed to earthquakes Annual average asset losses, earthquake Poor population ( > Observed average annual mean temperature in Türkiye (1901–2020) 15 Annual mean Smoothed 14 13 Temperature (°C) 12 11 10 9 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2020 Source: CCKP There have been subnational changes in precipitation, although natural variability makes it difficult to establish a significant pattern of change at the national level. More seasonal variability in precipitation has been observed in the past 50 years, with rainfall decreasing in the summer months (figure 2.9) and irregular precipitation being experienced (figure 2.10). Regional observed changes include a trend of increasing total annual precipitation in the northern and eastern areas of the Black Sea region, the Central and Eastern Anatolia regions, and the Tekirdağ and Istanbul areas of Thrace; a declining trend in total annual precipitation in the western and southern regions; and decreasing winter and spring precipitation in the Marmara, Aegean, Mediterranean, and Central, Eastern, and Southeast Anatolia regions (MoEUCC 2019b). 21 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S FIGURE 2.7 >> FIGURE 2.8 > > Variability and trends in maximum temperature in Changes in maximum daily temperature in Türkiye Türkiye, across seasonal cycle (1971–2020) (1950–2020) 35 2020 30 2010 25 2000 Maximum temperature (°C) 20 1990 15 1980 10 1970 5 1960 0 1950 -5 ary er r er ary rch ril y ne ly t er s be Ma Ju Ap gu mb tob mb Ju nu bru Ma vem ary ary rch ril y ne ly st er er r er Au be Ma pte ce Oc Ju Ja Ap gu mb tob mb Ju Fe nu bru Ma vem No De Au Se pte ce Oc Ja Fe No De Se  1971–80  1981–90  1991–2000  2001–10  2011–20  Current climatology trend (1991–2020)  Less than 1 SD  Less than 2 SD  Less than 2.5 SD  Greater than 2.5 SD Source: CCKP Source: CCKP FIGURE 2.9 >> FIGURE 2.10 > > Variability and trends in precipitation in Türkiye, across Changes in precipitation event intensity in Türkiye seasonal cycle (1971–2020) (1950–2020) 200 2020 175 2010 150 2000 125 Precipitation (mm) 1990 100 1980 75 1970 50 1960 25 1950 0 ary er r er ary rch ril y ne ly t er s be Ma Ju Ap gu mb tob mb Ju ary ary rch ril y ne ly st er er r er nu bru Ma vem be Ma Ju Au Ap gu mb tob mb Ju pte ce Oc Ja nu bru Ma vem Fe Au No De pte ce Oc Ja Se Fe No De Se  1971–80  1981–90  1991–2000  2001–10  2011–20  Current climatology trend (1991–2020)  Less than 1 SD  Less than 2 SD  Less than 2.5 SD  Greater than 2.5 SD Source: CCKP Source: CCKP Beyond temperature records, Türkiye is already experiencing some changes consistent with the expected effects of climate change in the natural environment. Time series of satellite data show that Türkiye’s glaciers are shrinking and that more than half of the country’s ice cover has disappeared since 1970; this has been attributed to an increase in summer minimum temperatures (Yavaşlı et al. 2015). Other observed changes related to higher temperatures include reduced permanent snow cover and melting permafrost in periglacial areas in mountains (MoEUCC 2018b). The arrival of a large number of alien species in the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal has been associated with higher sea temperatures (MoEUCC 2018b). 22 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S In the summer of 2021, a major marine mucilage outbreak affected the Sea of Marmara, which several experts linked with climate change (box 2.2). BOX 2 .2 >> Marine mucilage has affected sea waters, which promote Türkiye’s waters since 2007. A proliferation. While mechanical Marine mucilage mixture of microorganisms— extraction can control it in the outbreaks: an including phytoplankton and their excretions—mucilage proliferates short term, sustained pollution control measures are needed emerging threat in marine areas that are rich for effective remediation. These in phosphorus (aggravated by include improved wastewater pollution from land sources), treatment and solid waste during periods of relatively low management in urban centers, wind conditions and typically after the treatment of pollution from drought. Mucilage blooms are industrial sources, and NbS such becoming a major environmental as wetland conservation. Several threat in Türkiye. In 2021, a of these measures, along with 30-meter-thick bloom in the Sea designating the Sea of Marmara a of Marmara disrupted fishing and protected area, are part of an action tourism and suffocated marine life. plan announced by the Turkish authorities in 2021 in response to Mucilage blooms could worsen the mucilage crisis. with climate change and warmer Climate change projections indicate overall warmer conditions and changes in seasonal and subnational precipitation patterns in Türkiye. Recent projections developed using the IPCC scenarios of possible future climate conditions—expressed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—coincide with those presented by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) in the country’s seventh national communication to the UNFCCC (MoEUCC 2018b), with mean temperatures projected to continue rising in the coming decades and temperature increases in the second half of the century varying widely depending on the emissions pathway in each scenario. Under the most optimistic climate scenario (RCP2.6), the mean annual temperature is expected to increase in a relatively stable manner, from 12.3°C in 1986–2005 to 12.7°C (11.6– 13.4°C) in 2100. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), the mean annual temperature could climb to 13.9°C (12.5–14.8°C) in 2050 and 17.1°C (15.3–18.9°C) by 2100, and the mean summer temperature (July and August) could increase by more than 4°C in the 2040s, 6°C in the 2080s, and 7°C in the 2090s (figures 2.11 and 2.12). Although mean annual precipitation projections do not show a clear pattern of change at national level, Türkiye’s seventh national communication and simulations using regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) suggest general decreases in precipitation in the future except in the winter season and more irregular and variable precipitation regimes across the country up to 2099 (Demircan et al. 2017; MoEUCC 2018b). Continued warming is likely to drive more extreme temperatures, longer heatwaves, drought, water stress, sea level rise, and floods, posing major and compound risks to the Turkish economy and population, particularly in urban areas. Under a moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), extreme daily temperatures (above 35°C) across Türkiye are expected to reach 24.9 days per year between 2040 and 2059 (CCKP 2022). The regions projected to experience extreme heat include the Mediterranean coast and southeastern Anatolia. Under a 2°C global warming scenario, the IPCC projects that the area around Izmir could experience more than 16 days with temperatures above 40°C each year, while Gaziantep would experience 31 days.9 Heat extremes experienced in 9  IPCC. Interactive Atlas. https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch. 23 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S FIGURE 2.11 >> FIGURE 2.12 > > Projected annual mean temperature in Türkiye, under Projected intra-annual mean temperature anomalies in different scenarios Türkiye, under RCP 8.5 20 Jan Feb 18 Mar Apr Mean temperature (°C) 16 May Jun 14 Jul Aug 12 Sept Oct 10 Nov Dec 8 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 1–6 1–7 1–8 1–9 00 210 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 01– 61– 21– 41– 51– 71– 81– 11– 31– 1–2 196 195 198 197 91– 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 199 20 Historical reference period (1986–2005) RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 -1°C 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C 6°C 7°C Source: CCKP Source: CCKP FIGURE 2.13 >> TABLE 2.4 > > Projected sea level rise in coastal Türkiye Selected future climate change impacts in Türkiye by 1 2050 (RCP 4.5 scenario) Projectesd sea level rise (meters) 0.8 Future population exposed to sea level rise and frequent coastal floods 0.6 Additional population exposed to frequent coastal floods (RCP 8.5 scenario) 0.4 Extreme heat days (>35°C) 0.2 Soil moisture change 0 Wheat yield change -0.2 08 18 28 38 48 58 68 78 88 98 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Sources: Kulp and Strauss 2019; CCKP; Climate Analytics, Climate Impact RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Explorer Source: CCKP Türkiye’s cities may be even greater than predicted by global climate models, most of which do not consider the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which can magnify the warming caused by GHG emissions by up to a factor of two (Huang et al. 2019).10 Data for 2003–18 already show a summer daytime UHI effect of over 3°C in Istanbul, and close to 2°C in Bursa.11 Heatwaves are associated with a range of health conditions, increased mortality, lower productivity in outdoor and indoor work, poorer educational outcomes, and increased crime, domestic violence, and even suicide rates. Low-income neighborhoods tend to get hotter than wealthy ones, because they usually have less vegetation. Projected sea level rise poses risks such as inundation, storm surge, and flooding to Türkiye’s coastal areas (figure 2.13). Studies show that under a moderate climate scenario (RCP 4.5), 0.67 percent of the population would be exposed to sea level rise and frequent coastal flooding in Türkiye by 2050 (up from 0.59 percent today), placing it in the middle tercile of OECD countries (Kulp and Strauss 2019). With climate change and higher temperatures, it is projected that soil moisture and wheat yields could drop by 4.7 and 8.4 percent, respectively, by 2050 (Climate Analytics 2022), affecting agricultural productivity and the land’s ability of absorb carbon (Green et al. 2019). Table 2.4 summarizes selected impacts of climate change that are expected to act as major drivers of climate and disaster risk in Türkiye by 2050. 10  The UHI effect is caused by artificial materials absorbing heat, a lack of vegetation, buildings trapping heat and blocking breezes, cars, factories, and air conditioning releasing heat, and other factors. 11  Global UHI Surface Explorer. https://yceo.yale.edu/research/global-surface-uhi-explorer. 24 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S Climate change is expected to exacerbate risks across all sectors of the Turkish economy. As temperatures rise in the coming decades, more impacts will become apparent and interact— whether individually or together—with underlying risk factors such as environmental degradation to magnify risks on people, livelihoods and assets, economic sectors, and the environment. A summary of the drivers of climate and disaster risk described in this chapter for Türkiye is presented in Appendix A. Strengthening A&R preparedness can lower impacts and economic costs and reduce risks from current and future climate change and disasters for Türkiye. The cost of delaying action may be too heavy to bear as climate change progresses, hazards intensify and change, and the population and assets exposed to impacts increase. For example, the cost of delaying coastal protection from sea level rise could be significant in terms of coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater resources and subsidence, and greater than the investment needs to build resilience. Without adaptation, the costs of coastal flooding alone could reach 0.24–0.54 percent of Istanbul’s and Izmir’s GDP by 2050 (Hallegatte et al. 2013). Planning for adaptation and investing in resilience- building is cost-effective and saves lives and suffering while preventing asset and well-being losses. Every dollar invested in resilient infrastructure creates jobs, saves lives, and reduces disaster response and recovery costs. Resilient infrastructure investments can also promote innovation and generate social, environmental, and economic benefits that materialize even in the absence of disasters (Hallegatte et al. 2019; UN 2019; World Bank Group 2021c). Although Türkiye has not had access to the Green Climate Fund, it has benefited from considerable climate-related development finance from bilateral and multilateral donors outside the financial mechanisms of the UNFCCC. Most has been for mitigation-related issues, with support for adaptation largely delivered through grants and representing only a small fraction of Türkiye’s climate finance budget (OECD 2019b). The prospect of higher international contributions for adaptation in Türkiye has improved since it ratified the Paris Agreement. However, beyond climate finance, accelerating and ensuring the sustainability of adaptation and resilience depends on their integration into development policies, plans, and actions. Türkiye has started to lay a solid foundation for building resilience to climate change through adaptation and risk reduction planning at various levels of government and in various sectors. This is the result of the development of robust climate change and DRM policies, strategies, and plans that guide its mitigation and adaptation actions (box 2.3). Türkiye has made progress in mainstreaming climate change adaptation and DRM into its national development processes. Its 11th NDP (2019–23) addresses adaptation directly and indirectly, includes actions for building national adaptation capacities, and mandates the identification of urban and regional climate change challenges and adaptation needs, and the elaboration of CCAPs for Türkiye’s seven regions. The plan includes multiple resilience measures, including adaptation measures for reducing vulnerability to potential climate change impacts at sectoral level—for example, in agriculture—and mitigation measures with adaptation co- benefits, most of which are focused on energy efficiency. The plan also emphasizes disaster preparedness for reducing the impacts of earthquakes and extreme weather events (table 2.5). Subnational and sectoral adaptation and risk reduction planning is also advancing. Table 2.6 summarizes the potential impacts of climate change on the national sectors prioritized for adaptation in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Plan (2011–23). Progress includes developing Türkiye’s first Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (IRAP, in Turkish acronym) in 2021, which addresses earthquake and climate change-related risks in the Kahramanmaraş Province (Bagherzadeh and Shigemitsu 2021) and the completion of CCAPs 25 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S BOX 2 .3 >> The Climate Change Strategy Türkiye’s National Climate Change (2010–23) serves as a basis for Adaptation Strategy and Action Key national the National CCAP (2011–23), Plan (2011–23) sets framework strategic establishes a national vision to combat climate change, and goals and sectoral targets for adaptation, focusing on the same documents guiding calls for mitigation and energy sectors and objectives as the climate action in efficiency in five key sectors and the development of policies on climate CCAP and elaborating a series of measurable and timebound actions Türkiye change adaptation. for each sector, including assigning responsibilities to lead agencies. The National CCAP (2011–23) introduces a roadmap for The National Energy Efficiency addressing climate change, Action Plan (2027–23) presents establishes measurable targets 55 actions to promote energy for lowering GHG emissions and efficiency in buildings and services, a set of adaptation objectives in energy, transport, industry and five key sectors—water resource technology, agriculture, and management (WRM), agriculture crosscutting areas. Its targets aim and food security, ecosystem to reduce Türkiye’s primary energy services, biodiversity and forestry, consumption by 23.9 million tons natural DRM, and public health— of oil equivalent and emissions by and has objectives for integrating 66.6 million tons of carbon dioxide adaptation in a set of crosscutting equivalent by 2023. issues as its sixth area of focus. for Türkiye’s seven regions, as mandated in the 11th NDP. IRAPs are now under preparation for all provinces. One of the objectives of the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change’s (MoEUCC) Strategic Plan (2018–22) is to issue local climate action plan regulations. Once these are in place, it is expected that 30 metropolitan municipalities covering approximately 83 percent of the population will start to prepare their local plans, followed by 51 provincial plans (MoEUCC 2018b). Sectoral CCAPs are also foreseen, with their elaboration included in the government’s Final Declaration on Combating Climate Change, announced in February 2021. TABLE 2.5 >> Key adaptation measures in Türkiye’s 11th NDP (2019–23) NDP area Policies and measures that directly address climate change and disaster risk Agriculture » Expanding the agricultural area with modern irrigation systems to ensure efficient water use » Scaling up water pollution prevention measures » Studies to establish underground water basins and dams to prevent water loss due to evaporation considering the effects of climate change » Action plans for invasive species and agricultural pathogens that may affect the sector under climate change » Developing production change scenarios under climate change for various products » Resilient infrastructure supported (e.g., animal shelters and greenhouse production) » Reclaiming and managing pasture » Expanding products and hazards covered under the agricultural insurance scheme, with sustained efforts to introduce revenue protection insurance Urban areas » Urban planning based on spatial plans that integrate climate change, disaster risk, geographical characteristics, and historical values » Expanding green spaces in urban areas, including establishing national gardens to attenuate higher temperatures under climate change Environmental protection » Capacity building to increase adaptation and undertake GHG mitigation in key emitting sectors: buildings, energy, industry, transport, waste, agriculture, land use and forestry » Planning, developing, and implementing national and regional adaptation strategies and action plans, including preparing CCAPs for seven regions 26 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S Disaster risk management » Preparing Türkiye’s national and provincial DRM plans » Preparing and implementing local DRM projects » Scaling up natural disaster insurance to cover all hazards, at household and sovereign levels » Elaborating hazard and risk maps under various climate change scenarios » Continuing earthquake retrofitting works, including for critical infrastructure, and increasing emergency shelter capacity in Istanbul » Continuing the inventory of public assets » Identifying a critical infrastructure prioritization method » Defining procedures and principles for the Post-Disaster Recovery Plan and preparing local recovery plans » Completing an uninterrupted and secure communication infrastructure for more effective disaster response » Developing a geographic information system (GIS)-based decision support mechanism for effective disaster management » Strengthening local disaster management units’ technical and administrative capacity » Raising awareness of disasters and emergencies across the country » Providing required shelter materials Energy efficiency » Establishing a subsidy mechanism for replacing inefficient electric motors used in industrial processes » Increasing forest assets and energy efficiency gains to reduce carbon emissions » Supporting green port applications to increase energy efficiency in port operations, minimize environmental impacts, and ensure sustainability TABLE 2.6 >> Key climate change impacts in Türkiye’s climate priority sectors change adaptation Sector Key climate change impacts Water resource » Through changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and the shift from snow to rain in the management highlands, climate change could substantially alter streamflows in the country’s river basins, cause the loss of surface waters, reduce the quantity and quality of available freshwater, and compromise the water resources needed for drinking, domestic and industrial consumption, hydropower. and agriculture. By 2030, the Gediz and Büyük Mederes River Basins could lose 50% of their surface waters, creating extreme water scarcity for the sectors and people who depend on them. With a rapidly growing population, water scarcity and climate change impacts on water resources, 30–45% of Türkiye’s population could experience water stress by 2100. More intense rainfall events could also aggravate soil degradation processes, with direct implications on the quality of water resources. Agriculture and food » Increased evapotranspiration, extreme weather events, changes in agroecological zones and security growing periods due to changing climate conditions, and increased pest and disease incidence may lead to large crop production losses. Wheat, barley, corn, cotton, and sunflower yields could see a significant decline across the country by 2050. Livestock production could be affected by changes in the availability, quantity and quality of feed and water, physiological stress, epidemics, and an increase in input prices. Overall, climate change impacts on agriculture could have serious consequences on the sector’s contribution to GDP, employment in agriculture and related value chains, and food security, as food price rise and volatility increases. Ecosystem services, » All terrestrial ecosystems are expected to be affected by climate change. Species will migrate biodiversity, and to new habitats in search of suitable climate conditions, biodiversity patterns will change, and forestry species will be lost. Mountain species are disproportionately sensitive to a changing climate. It has been predicted that a 3.6°C rise in global temperature could lead to a loss of over 50 percent of plant species in the Mediterranean mountainous region shared by Türkiye. Shallow lakes and wetlands may be affected by eutrophication and salinization. Seawater warming is expected to lead to changes in marine ecosystems and their biological composition, including the appearance of invasive species and the disappearance of temperature-sensitive species, with consequences for fisheries and aquaculture-based activities. Natural hazards and » A surge in the number, intensity and duration of climate extremes will require commensurate risk DRM management measures—including infrastructural interventions—to reduce the risk and improve disaster response and better manage floods, droughts, and forest fires. The latter could change in duration and become year-round threats. Public health » Higher summer temperatures and the expected 24.9 extreme heat days per year by 2050 could increase the incidence of heat stroke and heart-related mortality. Climate change could increase the incidence of waterborne and tick-born infectious diseases, malaria, Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, and other diseases. More prolonged and intense heatwaves are expected to impact labor productivity and GDP, with GDP losses projected to steadily increase over the next 40 years in Europe, particularly southern Europe, including Türkiye. 27 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S As Türkiye emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and prepares for a green transition, new opportunities emerge for continuing to strengthen A&R policies and actions. Opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation and resilience in climate and development processes include the following: » Preparing the 12th NDP. » Executing the Medium-Term Program (2022–24), which seeks to set up a growth model that creates quality jobs and reduces inflation and current account deficit. » Implementing the Green Deal Action Plan (2021), which provides a strategy for achieving a green transformation in all economic sectors to support Türkiye’s alignment with the European Green Deal. Although many of the actions in this plan are geared toward accelerating decarbonization and attracting green investments to strengthen Türkiye’s integration to global supply chains, it also includes actions to support informed decision making on adaptation, such as: including the Land Degradation Neutrality approach in national investment programs; elaborating the Climate Change Combat Report (in 2021), the 2023–30 CCAP (in 2022), the 2050 Climate Change Strategy (in 2022), the Water Reuse National Master Plan (by 2023), and studies on climate change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems and interactions with land degradation and desertification; estimating potential water losses due to climate change; and identifying NbS for coasts, lakes and/or wetlands, and NbS studies for land applications. » Developing an updated NDC and long-term strategy (LTS) after ratifying the Paris Agreement. 28 C H A P T E R 2 : LO C A L I Z E D I M PA C T S 3 CHAPTER 3 >> The Adaptation Principles framework This report provides a whole-of- for example, ministries of finance or economy assessment of Türkiye’s economy—address A&R challenges. A&R preparedness and identifies The approach is not meant to provide priority areas for action. detailed sectoral assessments or roadmaps; rather, it focuses on concrete The assessment follows the approach macroeconomic-level actions that developed in the World Bank Adaptation reflect universal principles for effective Principles (Hallegatte et al. 2020), climate change adaptation. If prioritized which provides a flexible framework according to a country’s objectives, for designing effective national climate needs and risks, such actions can help and disaster A&R policies and strategies. reduce and manage climate and disaster It aims to help central ministries that risks, and accelerate development and oversee the wider economic system— poverty reduction. 29 H:AT C H A P T E RC 3 PH ER TE AD 4A A TAT : P DAP ON P I TAT IORN I NPCR P II NLC E IS FE PL 1MEWORK RA The assessment reviews Türkiye’s performance against a series of priority actions organized around six adaptation principles (figure 3.1). The priority actions correspond to common policy domains and cover key aspects of the enabling environment required for effective adaptation, including: 1 Adaptation Principle 1: Lay the foundations through rapid, robust, and inclusive development 2 Adaptation Principle 2: Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms 3 Adaptation Principle 3: Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical assets and services 4 Adaptation Principle 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural hazards 5 Adaptation Principle 5: Manage financial and macrofiscal issues 6 Adaptation Principle 6: Application: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress Considering Türkiye’s high level of exposure to earthquakes, the assessment also addresses seismic and other natural disaster risks. F I G U R E 3 .1 > > The Adaptation Principles framework 1 Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development Policies to reduce poverty and ensure that high-vulnerability populations have the necessary financial, technical and institutional resources to adapt 2 3 4 5 Facilitate the Adapt urban and Help firms and Manage fiscal and adaptation of people land use plans and people manage macrofiscal issues and firms protect critical residual risks and Actions to protect Information, policy and public assets and natural disasters macroeconomic regulatory environment services Actions to ensure stability, public finances households and Actions to protect and people and firms and debt sustainability, businesses need to strengthen the resilience can cope with and and the broader financial adapt of critical infrastructure, rapidly recover from sector from climate natural resources and disasters without impacts public investments to devastating long-term climate impacts consequences 6 Application: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress Actions to establish a whole-of-government approach to mainstreaming adaptation in decision-making and action and to ensure the continuous and iterative monitoring, evaluation, learning and adjustment of interventions Source: Adapted from Hallegatte et al. 2020 In total, 155 indicators and 31 priority actions were selected to assess Türkiye’s A&R preparedness. To ensure a balanced evaluation, about five to seven indicators capture key aspects of A&R attributes for each priority action. The indicator selection builds from the list of suggested indicators in The Adaptation Principles (Hallegatte et al. 2020) and recent resilience assessments carried out in other countries using the same approach (Rozenberg et al. 2021). 30 C H A P T E R 3 : T H E A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E S F R A M E W O R K The framework was further adapted to include priority actions for the five areas identified in Türkiye’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23)—WRM, agriculture and food security, ecosystems, biodiversity and forestry, DRM, and public health— with sectoral deep dives providing more targeted assessments and recommendations. The distribution of indicators across the adaptation principles is presented in table 3.1. TABLE 3.1 >> Number of A&R preparedness indicators included in the assessment Adaptation principle Number of indicators 1. Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development 23 2. Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms 23 3. Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical public assets and services 46 4. Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural disasters 25 5. Manage financial and macrofiscal issues 14 6. Application: prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress 24 Total number of indicators: 155 The traffic light system (TLS) used in this report assesses and rates Türkiye’s progress in each A&R preparedness indicator. The rating system is based on three categories defined in the TLS: nascent, emerging, and established (figure 3.2). The TLS rates progress against each indicator based on available data and information, and is then aggregated to provide a scorecard with a rating for each priority action and adaptation principle (Appendix B). Specifically, scores of 1, 2, or 3 are assigned to each category, with average ratings of 1–1.67 for nascent (red), 1.67–2.33 for emerging (yellow), and 2.33–3 for established (blue). Using an equal weight for each indicator, the rating scores are aggregated for each underlying indicator to provide an average score for each priority action. Using an equal weight for each priority action, these are then aggregated to provide an aggregate score for each adaptation principle. This system offers a simple way to identify gaps and areas for improvement, prioritize actions, facilitate target setting, and monitor progress across key aspects of adaptation and resilience. See Appendix C for detailed descriptions of the indicators, sources, and rating criteria. F I G U R E 3 .2 > > Traffic light system used in the assessment, defined for each indicator Nascent (red): lll The country does not meet the standard or includes areas that are at an early stage of development, or ranks in the bottom tercile of a benchmark group Emerging (yellow): lll The country partly meets the standard, has progressed beyond the early stage, or is ranked in the middle tercile of a benchmark group Established (blue): lll The country meets the standard, or is ranked in the top tercile of a benchmark group The assessment uses a wide range of information sources and methods, including benchmarking with peer countries. Where possible, Türkiye’s performance is compared against OECD countries, in line with the CCDR benchmarking approach. As such, the assessment uses several globally available quantitative public data sources—such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators12 and OECD Data13 —for approximately one-third of the indicators, which may 12  https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. 13  http://data.oecd.org. 31 C H A P T E R 3 : T H E A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E S F R A M E W O R K differ from national statistics. The assessment also uses Türkiye’s national statistics and data, qualitative evaluation of policy documents and reports published by the government of Türkiye, a literature review of a wide range of scientific information and technical reports, and expert judgment when other data were not available. Due to the use of global databases to allow for benchmarking, differences may exist between the data provided in the report and national statistics. Table 3.2 provides a summary of the types of methods and sources of information used in the assessment, which are also marked for each indicator throughout the report. TABLE 3.2 >> Methods and data sources used in this assessment Data category Methods and data sources Number of indicators I Quantitative benchmarking assessment supported by global data or statistics (e.g. 48 World Development Indicators, OECD Data, etc.) II Qualitative assessment based on national statistics, review of policy documents and 80 reports, websites, literature from different sources including government, World Bank and OECD analytics, among others III Qualitative assessment based on technical/country expert judgement 27 Total number of indicators: 155 Based on the results obtained in each priority action, a series of recommendations are developed for each adaptation principle, aimed at informing policy, strategy, and investment-related decision making for strengthening adaptation and resilience within short (2022–30), medium (20–2040) and long-term (2040–50) time horizons, aligned with NDC and LTS milestones and reporting processes (UNFCCC 2019; Falduto and Rocha 2020). Given potential relationships and dependencies between priority actions within the adaptation principles—for example, where one action is the basis of or reinforces another action—each recommendation is linked to the main priority action it supports, while also highlighting links with other priority actions that may lead to synergistic impacts on adaptation and resilience. Although not all priority actions are expected to have direct fiscal implications—through studies, assessments, inventories, EWS, and so on—recommendations with clear fiscal implications are indicated, but a detailed assessment of budgetary needs was outside the scope of this report. Cost-benefit analysis, complemented by distributional effects analysis, would further contribute to the prioritization of adaptation actions and plans with positive externalities, improve equity in the distribution of benefits, and strengthen the efficiency of public investment for adaptation along different time horizons (Bellon and Massetti 2022; Aligishiev et al. 2022). A number of caveats and limitations should be considered when interpreting the results of the assessment. First, although the assessment intends to capture important elements of adaptation and resilience from a whole-of-economy perspective based on the Adaptation Principles framework as adapted for Türkiye, it does not provide an exhaustive list of actions that a country may consider or undertake. Detailed sectoral assessments and roadmaps are required to further guide adaptation actions in priority sectors and complement this work. Second, the assessment uses a broad range of indicators to cover all adaptation principles and priority actions. While every effort was made to include indicators that were relevant to the purpose of the assessment based on previous applications of the Adaptation Principles and on consultations with national and sectoral experts, the results of the assessment remain closely linked to the choice of indicators, data availability, and expert judgement. Third, although the assessment uses the latest data available, uncertainties remain related to information sources that may rapidly become obsolete and need updating in light of ongoing and emerging studies 32 C H A P T E R 3 : T H E A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E S F R A M E W O R K and initiatives that may generate more up-to-date or adequate information and data that could be available through further iterations and consultations. This is particularly relevant for climate change data that rely on global sources and modeling efforts—such as the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP)14—which may fail to capture the actual materiality of Türkiye-specific risks and future extremes, as provided in local assessments. Fourth, the assessment should be considered in the context of other global risks that may exacerbate existing vulnerabilities when compounded with the effects of climate change (box 3.1). Given these caveats and limitations, the results should not be interpreted as an absolute and accurate assessment of Türkiye’s A&R preparedness. Rather, it is intended to serve as a starting point for identifying priority areas for action that can be considered in national climate change and related strategies and plans. BOX 3 .1 >> In an increasingly interconnected developed with a focus on natural world, shocks are felt across and climate related hazards and Adaptation and sectors, borders, and scales, risks, many of the indicators resilience in the revealing the systemic nature of risks as well as their cascading included in the assessment may also be used to assess context of multiple effects and dynamics (UNDRR and preparedness against a number global risks UNU-EHS 2022). The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as recent of other global risks that have the potential to exacerbate existing events in the region such as the vulnerabilities of a country’s war in Ukraine, have highlighted economy and population, such the importance of anticipating as those related to cybersecurity, large shocks that can have a political turmoil, and terrorism, high disruption potential when among others (see WEF 2022). compounded with the effects For a broader crisis preparedness of climate change—for example, assessment, see the Crisis on food security, energy poverty Preparedness Gap Analysis and security, and so on. While framework (World Bank Group, the present A&R framework was forthcoming). 14  https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/. 33 C H A P T E R 3 : T H E A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E S F R A M E W O R K 4 C H A P T E R 4 > > A D A P T A T ION PRINCIPLE 1 lll Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development “Policies to reduce poverty and catalyze robust economic development are most effective for reducing vulnerability to climate change. Poverty and the lack of access to basic services—including critical infrastructure, financial services, health care, and social protection—are strong predictors of vulnerability to climate change. No targeted adaptation strategy can be successful without eradicating extreme poverty and ensuring high-vulnerability populations have the financial, technical, and institutional resources they need to adapt.” —The Adaptation Principles PRIORITY ACTIONS lll 1.1 >> Increase economic productivity and growth, while keeping buffers for shocks lll 1.2 >> Ensure that economic growth is inclusive This chapter reviews the progress made toward achieving inclusive economic growth as the foundation for resilience in Türkiye. The assessment includes 23 indicators, corresponding to two priority actions. The overall results indicate emerging progress toward achieving this adaptation principle, with both priority actions also emerging. 34 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 lll Priority Action 1.1 >> Increase economic productivity and growth, while keeping buffers for shocks INDICATORS >> lll Economic growth (I) lll Investment (I) lll Adjusted net savings (ANS) (I) lll Economic productivity (I) lll Macroeconomic stability (I) External shocks have affected the rapid pace of economic growth seen since the 1990s in Türkiye, reducing national capacity for building adaptation and resilience. The concurrent effects of macroeconomic volatility and the COVID-19 pandemic have slowed down Türkiye’s impressive development progress and led to the largest economic decline seen in over a decade. Between 2015 and 2019,15 Türkiye’s GDP per capita increased at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, positioning the country in the top tercile of its OECD peers, which experienced average annual GDP per capita growth of 2.1 percent (figure 4.1). Türkiye also saw gains in natural and human capital as indicated by an ANS of 13.1 percent,16 compared to an OECD average of 10.7 percent (figure 4.2). FIGURE 4.1 >> FIGURE 4.2 > > GDP annual growth rate per capita (2015–19 average) Adjusted net savings (2015–19 average) 10 25 GDP per capita growth rate (5-year average) 9 20 Adjusted net savings (% of GNI) 8 7 15 6 10 5 5 4 3 0 2 -5 1 0 -10 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: World Development Indicators Source: World Development Indicators However, macroeconomic stability was lower in Türkiye (1.01) than in peer countries during the same period (1.06; figure 4.3). With a generous stimulus to boost GDP, inflation was almost three times higher in Türkiye than in other OECD countries (Consumer Price Index of 327 vs. 118 average in OECD countries; figure 4.4); the fiscal deficit (2.2 percent) almost doubled that of other OECD countries (1.2 percent average); and the current account deficit (2.6 percent) more than doubled the OECD average of 1.2 percent.17 Throughout this period, the country kept a low general debt (29.2 percent of GDP) compared with the OECD average of 68 percent; and investment—mainly driven by private investment—reached 25 percent of GDP in 2019, compared with the OECD average of 23.4 percent.18 But public investment has been highly volatile and on a declining trend since 2002, while for economic productivity, Türkiye was in the bottom tercile of OECD countries in 2019, 15  2020 has been omitted from this and other indicators to exclude the effects of COVID-19. 16  ANS is a measure of change in a country’s wealth. ANS equals net national savings plus education expenditure, minus energy depletion, mineral depletion, net forest depletion, and carbon dioxide and particulate emissions damage. 17  IMF WEO. Databases www.imf.org. 35 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 with a total factor productivity of 0.97 compared with the OECD average of 1.01.18 Macroeconomic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and more recent geopolitical conflicts in the region, affect Türkiye’s economy and capacity to tackle climate change and disasters, as adaptation and risk reduction measures alone cannot reduce vulnerability in a significant manner or create sustained resilience under highly volatile or challenging global economic conditions. FIGURE 4.3 >> FIGURE 4.4 > > Macroeconomic stability (2015–19 average) Consumer Price Index rankings (2015–19 average) 2 350 1.8 300 Inflation (CPI, 5-year average) 1.6 Macroeconomic stability 1.4 250 1.2 200 1 150 0.8 0.6 100 0.4 50 0.2 0 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: IMF WEO databases Source: IMF WEO databases lll Priority Action 1.2 >> Ensure that economic growth is inclusive INDICATORS >> lll Poverty rate (I) lll Access to electricity (I) lll Poverty headcount change (I) lll Access to universal health coverage (I) lll Shared prosperity (I) lll Access to information and communications technology (ICT) (I) lll Unemployment rate (I) lll Access to primary and secondary education (I) lll Overall governance (I) lll Access to financial services (I) lll Human Capital Index (I) lll Access to public services for refugees (II) lll Women’s empowerment (I) lll Social protection coverage (I) lll Access to basic water (I) lll Social spending (I) lll Access to safe sanitation (I) lll Socioeconomic resilience (I) Although Türkiye’s high growth performance has benefited the poor, macroeconomic shocks and the health crisis have taken a toll on poverty reduction, with implications for SER and vulnerability to climate extremes and disasters. Poverty rates fell rapidly during the 2000s and, although at a slower pace, continued decreasing during the past decade, from 16.1 percent in 18  GGDC Penn World Tables. www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt. 36 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 2010 to 15 percent in 2019, representing a 6.8 percent change compared to the OECD average percent change of 2.93 (figure 4.5). The largest decrease was seen before the 2018/19 economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with 13.5 percent of the population living below the national poverty line in 2016, the lowest poverty rate that decade. However, due to a reversal in poverty reduction arising from economic shocks, poverty started increasing thereafter, reaching 15 percent in 2019 (at national poverty lines). Türkiye saw positive trends in shared prosperity between 2015 and 2019, with the consumption rates of the poorest 40 percent increasing 1.2 percentage points above those of the average population19 an indication of good progress toward increased well-being. Still, the macroeconomic shocks and health crisis erased about 10 percent of the jobs created since 2005 and led to an unemployment rate of 13.7 percent in 2019, one of the highest among OECD countries (average 7.2 percent; figure 4.6). This represents a setback in the national capacity to invest in building adaptation and resilience. FIGURE 4.5 >> FIGURE 4.6 > > Poverty headcount change (2010–19) Unemployment rate (2019) 30 20 Poverty headcount change (% of population) Unemployment (% of total work force) 18 20 16 14 10 12 0 10 8 -10 6 4 -20 2 -30 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: World Development Indicators Source: World Development Indicators Good governance is crucial for creating and sustaining the enabling conditions for inclusive development, adaptation, and resilience, but Türkiye’s 2019 World Governance Index score (-0.45) was the lowest among OECD countries and well below the OECD average of 1.05 (figure 4.7). This index aggregates the results of individual indicators for six dimensions of governance: voice and accountability; political stability and absence of violence; government effectiveness; regulatory quality; rule of law; and control of corruption. Türkiye ranked in the bottom tercile of its OECD peers in each of these dimensions. Improving governance can guide the participation, interaction, and collective efforts of multiple stakeholders and sectors to address societal problems, including economic, health, and climate/disaster crises. Insufficient and ineffective public investment in human capital and gender inequalities affect productivity, economic growth, adaptation, and resilience. Despite significant advances in human capital development, Türkiye only scores 0.65 in the Human Capital Index (HCI), placing it in the lowest tercile of OECD countries (average HCI of 1.05).20 The country invests around 55 percent of its public budget in health, education, and social sector expenditures driven by pensions, but spending levels and efficiency are below the OECD average, leaving significant scope for improving 19  World Bank calculations, based on the Income and Living Conditions Survey (Turkstat 2019). 20  World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. 37 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 human capital outputs to increase productivity and improve the performance of Turkish firms (Erdogan and Del Carpio 2019; World Bank 2021d). Throughout the recent economic and health turmoil, labor force participation has remained highest among people with higher education and lowest among the less skilled population (World Bank 2021d). In 2017, around 33 percent of the working-age population were not in education, employment, or training, having mostly not completed high school, and unable to contribute to the economy or improve their skills (Erdogan and Del Carpio 2019). Women have also borne the largest employment losses during the recent economic shocks, reaching 61 percent of all jobs lost between November 2019 and November 2020 (World Bank 2021d). This is of concern as women’s empowerment, measured by the Global Gender Gap Index, is lower in Türkiye (0.65) than in other OECD countries, where the average is 0.74 (WEF 2021). Similarly, the ratio of female-to-male labor force participation is 47 percent, compared with 80 percent in OECD peer countries (figure 4.8). Strengthening the human capital base and creating the conditions to enhance female participation in the labor force improves people’s potential to engage in formal employment and entrepreneurship, expands the talent pool needed for enterprises to grow and succeed, increases household incomes, contributes to poverty reduction, and strengthens household and community capacity to adapt to a changing climate and make better DRM decisions.21 FIGURE 4.7 >> FIGURE 4.8 > > World Governance Index ranking (2019) Ratio of female-to-male labor force participation (2019) 2.5 100 2 90 Ratio of female to male labor force 1.5 80 World Government Index participation rate (%) (low=-2.5, high=2.5) 1 70 0.5 60 0 50 -0.5 40 -1 30 -1.5 20 -2 10 -2.5 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: World Development Indicators Source: WEF 2021 Türkiye has made progress in the provision of basic services to all, although some challenges remain. By 2020, there was universal access to electricity, 98.8 percent of the population had access to basic drinking water (ranking in the top tercile of OECD countries for both), 78.8 percent had access to safely managed sanitation (compared with the OECD average of 84 percent),22 and 89 percent of the municipal population was served by urban wastewater treatment plants (MoEUCC 2021). Essential health services covered 74 percent of the population in 2017, lower than most OECD countries (average coverage of 80 percent), and access to primary and secondary education in 2020 was 87.9 and 87.2 percent respectively, compared with 95.7 and 92.1 percent among OECD countries.22 Access to ICT has also improved, reaching 63 percent of the population, though still within the lowest tercile of OECD peers (average 84 percent) (UN 2020). Improvements in social security and financial systems are needed to strengthen SER (see box 1.1) in Türkiye, particularly for the poor. Adequate social security and inclusive financial systems are 21  For a detailed discussion of the nexus between human capital, climate change, and resilience, see Monsalve and Watsa (2020). 22  World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. 38 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 critical to SER, acting as economic buffers that prevent people from falling into permanent or deeper poverty during disasters and becoming more vulnerable to future shocks. In 2016, SER in Türkiye was estimated at 48 percent, placing the country in the bottom tercile of its OECD peers, where the average SER is 67 percent, and indicating that well-being losses caused by disasters are almost twice as large as asset losses. Further, SER in Türkiye is much lower for the poor than for the average population (Hallegatte et al. 2017). Türkiye is also in the lowest tercile of OECD countries in social protection coverage, social spending, and access to financial services. Social and labor programs cover 49.3 percent of the population, compared with the OECD average of 68.6 percent,23 and social spending—including transfers and other social benefits—accounts for 12.2 percent of GDP, compared with the OECD average of 20 percent.24 Financial services have expanded in the country, with account ownership reaching 72 percent of the population aged 25 and older, compared with the OECD average of 86 percent.25 But further improvements are needed to achieve universal financial inclusion, especially for credit and insurance. Although Türkiye has remarkable policies and programs to provide adequate coverage of public services to 3.6 million Syrian refugees (UNHCR n.d.), SER can be further strengthened through improvements to the systems that protect the well-being of the country’s population from external shocks. There has been recent progress in this regard, with an increase in the number of social assistance programs and the establishment of the Family Support Program, which should enroll a high share of the individuals who are not covered by the social assistance system. Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience In recent decades, Türkiye has achieved rapid economic growth and attracted increased private investment, while reducing the poverty headcount, advancing the creation of shared prosperity, and increasing access to basic services. But it could do more to lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development. Based on the results of this assessment, the following recommendations can support the government of Türkiye to further its efforts to do this. Increase economic productivity and growth, while keeping buffers for shocks. Undertaking targeted fiscal policy reforms and other measures can help achieve macroeconomic stability and reduce macroeconomic volatility, inflation, fiscal deficit, and current account deficit. Policy and strategic interventions to increase economic productivity to the level of other OECD countries are also crucial. World Bank (2021d), Erdogan and Del Carpio (2019), and the World Bank (2019b) all provide detailed analyses and specific recommendations for potential fiscal and productivity intervention areas. Türkiye could also benefit from considering complementary measures of growth in its national accounting. Ensure that economic growth is inclusive. As well as continuing its efforts to reduce the negative effects of recent economic shocks on poverty and unemployment, the government can promote policies that strengthen governance, improve human capital, and reduce inequalities, increasing the efficiency and level of public investment in education, vocational training, and employment skills, and enabling the active participation of women, youth, and disadvantaged groups in the labor force.26 To achieve inclusive economic growth, Türkiye can accelerate its efforts to increase 23  ASPIRE, the World Bank’s Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity. https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/ datatopics/aspire/country/turkey. 24  OECD Data. http://data.oecd.org. 25  World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. 26  World Bank (2019b) discusses specific interventions and policy options for addressing human capital shortcomings, including: providing fiscal incentives for firms willing to invest in improving school/university-work transitions to reduce the incidence of people not in education, employment, or training; regularly monitoring the demand for skills; and revitalizing vocational training institutions that are under-used and poorly resourced. 39 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 women’s empowerment and reach the same levels as most other OECD countries, including by reducing of gender disparities in labor force participation.27 Continuing to expand the coverage of basic services will help make safe sanitation, health care, primary and secondary education, ICT, and financial services accessible to all. Supporting digital device ownership and use among vulnerable groups can increase their access to risk information and financial services, while continuing to increase social spending and improving the adequacy and coverage of social protection programs such as through the Türkiye Family Support Programme—and including transitioning from fragmented social programs to a unified, holistic social insurance system in the long term—will further strengthen the country’s socioeconomic resilience (World Bank 2021d). TABLE 4.1 >> Recommendations for supporting adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development Priority Links to other Fiscal Policy recommendation Priority Lead role Action priority actions implications 1.1 Maintain a stable macroeconomic Medium to » MoTF 2.5, 5.3 pathway to preserve the resilience long-term » CBRT achieved so far and keep buffers for external shocks 1.1 Foster economic productivity through Short to » MoTF 1.2 fiscal and policy adjustments and medium-term » MoIT incentives, including through skills- » MoLSS building programs and investments involving the private sector 1.1 Consider the use of additional measures Medium to » MoTF 3.8 of growth in national accounting that long-term » SBO incorporate aspects of resilience, such as the UN-SEEA 1.2 Continue efforts to reduce poverty and Short to » MoTF unemployment to improve well-being and medium-term » MoIT socioeconomic resilience » MoLSS » MoFSS 1.2 Establish a plan to improve overall Short to » MoTF governance and monitor performance in medium-term » SBO each of the governance dimensions 1.2 Increase the level and efficiency of public Short to » MoNE 1.1, 3.7 spending in human capital and create medium-term MoIT incentives for the private sector to build MoLSS skills and employ women, youth, and vulnerable populations 1.2 Accelerate efforts to empower women, Short to » MoFSS 1.1 including by removing structural barriers medium-term » MoLSS that prevent them from participating in the labor force 1.2 Improve access to services—including Short to » MoH 2.1, 2.4, 4.2 universal health coverage, primary and medium-term » MoNE secondary education, ICT, and financial » MoLSS services—to increase resilience » MoIT » PDTO » SBO 1.2 Continue ensuring that social protection Medium to » MoFSS 4.4 programs reach the most vulnerable, long-term » MoLSS and create a consolidated, universal social security system incorporating social assistance, cash benefits, and unemployment mechanisms Notes: CBRT= Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye; MoFSS = Ministry of Family and Social Services; MoH = Ministry of Health; MoIT = Ministry of Industry and Technology; MoLSS = Ministry of Labor and Social Security; MoNE = Ministry of National Education; MoTF = Ministry of Treasury and Finance; PDTO = Presidency of Digital Transformation Office; SBO = Presidency of Strategy and Budget Office. 27  Erdogan and Del Carpio (2019) provide a comprehensive list of interventions to increase women’s participation in the labor force, including quality and affordable childcare provision and flexible working arrangements. 40 C H A P T E R 4 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 1 5 C H A P T E R 5 > > A D A P T A T ION PRINCIPLE 2 lll Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms “Private actors—households and firms—have an incentive to increase their resilience and adapt to climate change. However, they face a range of obstacles, from the lack of information and behavioral biases to imperfect markets and financial constraints. Governments need to minimize these obstacles to maximize the economy’s adaptive capacity and prevent (as much as possible and desirable) climate change impacts and natural disasters.” —The Adaptation Principles PRIORITY ACTIONS lll 2.1 >> Assess climate and disaster risks, and make this information availablee lll 2.2 >> Clarify responsibilities and align incentives with A&R objectives lll 2.3 >> Facilitate access to technical solutions for resilience through research and development (R&D) and trade policies lll 2.4 >> Ensure financing is available to all, and provide support to the poorest and most vulnerable people lll 2.5 >> Facilitate structural change in the economic system This chapter reviews the progress made in creating the enabling environment for the adaptation of people and firms in Türkiye. The assessment includes 23 indicators, corresponding to five priority actions. The overall results indicate nascent progress toward achieving this adaptation principle and three of its priority actions. 41 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 lll Priority Action 2.1 >> Assess climate and disaster risks, and make this information available INDICATORS >> lll Hydromet data availability, completeness (II) lll Local-scale climate change scenarios (II) lll High-resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM) lll Data platform providing easy access to data coverage and availability (III) climate and disaster information (II) lll National-scale hazard map (covering entire lll Community awareness of hazard and country) availability and completeness (II) vulnerability levels (II) lll Local-scale hazard maps (1:10,000 or larger) lll Climate and disaster risk assessment for availability and completeness (III) main economic sectors (II) Although Türkiye has established a robust climate observation system that generates crucial information for risk management and advanced its development of a data management infrastructure, limited access to information hinders their use in adaptation. Türkiye has a long and robust database of climate observations, obtained from 1,233 weather stations, 2,045 hydromet, and 956 online stations (MoEUCC 2018b). TSMS and the State Hydraulic Works (DSI, in Turkish acronym) operate the stations, producing and communicating important information to the public, but not all data is accessible without request. Türkiye has developed hazard maps for various hazards28 and a web-based GIS platform—the Disaster Risk Reduction System of Türkiye (ARAS, in Turkish acronym)—hosts and integrates these maps for various uses, including producing risk maps and identifying vulnerable areas that are essential to plan adaptation and risk reduction interventions (AFAD 2020). However, ARAS only offers public access to seismic hazard maps. Access to disaster data is also limited as the repository of historical disaster information, the Turkish Disaster Information Bank (TABB, in Turkish acronym), is inactive and the information is not made publicly available. Without easy access to climate and disaster risk data and information (box 5.1), people and firms cannot properly identify their vulnerabilities, assess adequate risk reduction and other adaptation measures, or reassess the effectiveness of those measures as climate change progresses. Nevertheless, Türkiye has made concerted efforts to raise community awareness through public information campaigns on climate change and disaster risk-related issues, with over two million people receiving instantaneous weather-related data and information through a smartphone app developed by TSMS (MoEUCC 2018b). Although there is no specific regulation stipulating public access to climate change information and the country does not have a centralized climate change data platform equipped with adequate information and tools for public use, it is expected that the recently announced National Climate Change Platform and National Climate Change Research Center will cover this gap (World Bank, forthcoming). High-resolution data could inform effective local adaptation processes but are currently unavailable. Efforts to downscale climate and natural hazard data in Türkiye have been few and geographically fragmented (MoEUCC 2018b; OECD 2019b). But high-resolution DTM information, high-resolution hazard maps, and downscaled climate change scenarios, paired with socioeconomic data at high resolution, could enable a more granular assessment of risks, vulnerability, and impacts to support local risk management strategies and adaptation processes.29 These data are particularly important for urban planning and other areas where risk management decisions are made at high spatial resolution. 28  Türkiye has up-to-date earthquake hazard maps and has been developing flood hazard maps; these are almost completed for the entire country. National-level desertification risk maps are also available at a resolution of approximately 1 kilometer, as well as landslide, rockfall, and avalanche susceptibility maps at 200 and 20-meter resolution. The General Directorate for Spatial Planning under the MoEUCC is also developing 1/10,000 or higher-scale hazard maps within the scope of geological surveys with an aim of becoming the basis for zoning plans. 29  Local-scale climate change scenarios are to be produced as part of the second phase of the Climate Change on Water Resources project, under the leadership of the General Directorate of Water Management. 42 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 BOX 5.1. >> Risks evolve with climate change projections to meet short, medium, due to changes in both climate and and long-term planning needs. The importance socioeconomic systems. Decisions of data and to reduce those risks and adapt to changing conditions should be Historical data is the basis for understanding and learning from information based on the best information past processes and impacts for in adaptation available. This information is generated from observations, better decisions in the present and future. processes projections, and historical data. To keep the pace with the Observational data include changes, quality data and updated observations of the atmosphere, information need to be continuously land, and ocean as well as of generated, made available at socioeconomic processes. different spatial and temporal resolutions, and delivered in Projected data offer insights into appropriate formats to meet the future conditions, delivered in the needs of different users. form of forecasts, predictions, and Most sectors of economic importance still lack climate and natural hazard risk assessments, limiting the information that people and firms who depend on these sectors need to adapt. Few sectoral risk assessment studies have been developed so far (MoEUCC 2018b). Examples, both led by the World Bank, include the Key Agricultural Product Risk Assessment study (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management 2018), which studies the effects of climate change on agricultural outputs in Izmir; and the Building Resilience in Türkiye report (World Bank 2019c), which evaluated climate and disaster risk impacts to critical infrastructure, lifelines, and agriculture. Other important economic sectors—including manufacturing (18.8 percent of GDP), industry (27.7 percent of GDP), and services (54.6 percent of GDP)—need detailed climate and natural hazard risk assessments, to inform sectoral stakeholders on activities, assets, value chains, and markets that are vulnerable to impacts, and on opportunities that climate change may open up in the sector. These assessments give sectoral decision makers the information they need to plan ahead, adjust, climate-proof their investments, and build the necessary capacities to adapt to change. lll Priority Action 2.2 >> Clarify responsibilities and align incentives with A&R objectives INDICATORS >> lll Institutional responsibilities for disaster and lll Private sector CCAPs (III) climate risk management (III) lll Residual risk target level (II) lll Companies integrate adaptation and resilience in sustainability risk reporting (II) Responsibilities for DRM and climate change are clearly defined within government, though the current structure is mostly focused on response and recovery. Laws, regulations, and institutions for emergency and DRM have developed and evolved following major natural disasters across the country (Gülkan 2018). The Disaster Law 7269, dating back to 1959, assigns responsibilities for DRM at different levels but could be updated to mainstream climate and disaster risk 43 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 assessment, reduction, and resilience. The Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD, in Turkish acronym), created in 2009 under the direct authority of the prime minister, is the country’s principal authority for DRM and oversees the preparation and implementation of DRM activities. This includes DRM plans for all hazards except drought, which are managed under agricultural policy frameworks. In terms of climate change, the legal framework is clear in designating MoEUCC as the main institution in charge of Türkiye’s climate change agenda, and the recently created Presidency of Climate Change (PCC)30 under MoEUCC as the national focal point to the UNFCCC (chapter 9). Provincial government and municipality climate and DRM responsibilities are not yet clearly defined, which often leads to limited action and budgeting at the local level. Setting out clear responsibilities at all levels for managing climate and disaster risks backed up by legislation contribute to ensuring public and private actors are prepared to assume their respective roles and share of costs in adaptation and risk reduction. Residual risk targets have not yet been defined, leading to uncertainty around the level of risk people and firms are exposed to or the level of protection offered by public instruments and infrastructure. This puts them at a disadvantage when making investments and planning for the future, as residual risks are borne by individuals and organizations. For example, if an acceptable level of protection to a certain hazard is determined by law, the government ensures infrastructure or other mechanisms protect private and public assets up to that level. Individuals and firms then decide on the additional risk reduction measures they need to put in place to address the impacts of hazardous events that surpass that level of protection (Hallegatte et al. 2020). These may include insurance, retrofitting private infrastructure, or even relocation if the residual risk is deemed too high. The private sector is starting to engage in sustainability, risk reduction, and adaptation planning. The 11th NDP urges companies—including state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to include climate change in their long-term strategies and decision making. But as this is neither incentivized nor made mandatory, effective mainstreaming of climate and disaster risk considerations is unlikely. Less than 10 percent of respondents to the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey for Türkiye (2019a) have organization-level strategic climate change objectives and less than 5 percent have a dedicated managerial role with overview of environment or sustainability issues. But voluntary private sector engagement in sustainability risk reporting and CCAP preparation, including risk reduction and adaptation considerations, is starting to emerge. For example, the Banks Association of Türkiye established a sustainability working group that since 2009 has been regularly meeting to share best practices and international developments in this area. The association developed in 2014, and updated in 2021, sustainability guidelines for the banking sector which include adaptation to climate change. It has also produced studies, webinars, publications and online courses on sustainability for the sector. The Capital Markets Board of Türkiye has published the (voluntary) Sustainability Principles Compliance Framework for public listed companies (World Bank 2021f). CCAPs are slowly becoming a substantial tool among large companies in Türkiye for establishing a roadmap to manage climate change risks. For example, several companies—including Istanbul Airport and Garanti BBVA Investor Relations—have developed CCAPs, and the infrastructure and financial sector has also shown interest in assessing and managing adaptation risks via CCAPs. These efforts reflect a growing interest among private sector actors in addressing environmental challenges, including climate change, to ensure the long-term sustainability and profitability of their businesses and their clients’ interests. 30  Presidential Decree No. 85, dated October 29 2021, OG No. 31643. 44 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 lll Priority Action 2.3 >> Facilitate access to technical solutions for resilience through R&D and trade policies INDICATORS >> lll Public R&D spending (I) lll Innovativeness of the private sector (I) lll Private sector R&D spending (I) lll Resilience tariff (II) Turkish innovation and spending on R&D lags OECD countries, delaying the availability of technologies people and firms need to adapt to a changing climate. Türkiye is in the middle tercile of OECD countries in terms of public spending on R&D for environmental issues, including on climate change. In 2019, it dedicated about two percent of total government R&D spending to this budget line,31 with a growing number of green patents emerging. But Türkiye falls in the bottom tercile of OECD countries for both private investment in R&D and introducing new products, services, or processes (figure 5.1)—a proxy for innovation—despite only 0.8 percent of firms identifying customs and trade regulations as trade barriers (World Bank 2019a). More actively engaging the private sector in developing products and services that enable lower costs and more effective responses to climate change is warranted. The demand for these products and services is expected to grow under the European Green Deal, and Türkiye’s private sector could miss important business opportunities by not actively developing, introducing, and commercializing resilience-building solutions needed by every economic sector and level of society. For example, an analysis of the Product Complexity Index, a proxy for the technological sophistication of products and revealed comparative advantage that reveals whether a country exports a product competitively, has identified promising green opportunities for Türkiye to develop, produce, and export products for controlling air pollution, remediating soil and water, and capturing and storing carbon. The analysis found that products for solving wastewater management and water supply issues offer low-hanging fruits for Turkish industry (figure 5.2). Furthermore, Türkiye could examine opportunities to reduce or remove tariff and non-tariff barriers for A&R technology transfer and enhance import of resilience technologies to support adaptation action under the EU’s Common Customs Tariff for products within the scope of the Customs Union.32 FIGURE 5.1 >> Innovativeness of Türkiye’s private sector 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 13.3 16.8 Public spending on R&D (% total) 19.0 7.3 37.4 34.6 Introduced a new product or service (% of firms) 41.8 6.5 22.4 24.6 Introduced a process innovation (% of firms) 29.2 2.3  ECA  UMIC  OECD  Türkiye Source: World Bank 2019a Notes: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; UMIC = upper-middle-income countries 31  OECD Data. http://data.oecd.org. 32  Technologies that could be relevant to adaptation in Türkiye include those related to: environmental monitoring, analysis, and assessment equipment; agricultural production, water efficiency through irrigation systems, and drought-resistant seeds; water efficiency in agri-processing/manufacturing by improving process water efficiency and the reuse/recycling of process and gray water; wastewater treatment and management; water supply; climate resilience in buildings through a range of technologies and practices to improve water efficiency, improve heat and anergy management and minimize flood damage; infrastructure construction with improved resilience performance; solid waste management; and natural resource protection and risk management. 45 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 FIGURE 5.2 >> Green opportunities for Türkiye  Air pollution control  Management of solid and hazardous 2.0 waste and recycling systems  Clean up or remediation of soil and water 1.5  Natural resource protection  Cleaner or more resource-efficient 1.0 technologies and products  Natural risk management 0.5  Efficient consumption of energy  Noise and vibration abatement technologies and carbon capture  Others 0 and storage PCI  Renewable energy -0.5  Energy efficiency  Resources and pollution management  Environmental monitoring, analysis, -1.0 and assessment equipment  Waste management, recycling, and -1.5 remediation  Environmentally preferable products based on end-use or disposal  Waste water management and -2.0 characteristics potable water treatment -2.5  Gas flaring emission reduction  Water supply 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 RCA  Heat and energy management Source: Green Transition Navigator Notes: PCI = Product Complexity Index; RCA = revealed comparative advantage. lll Priority Action 2.4 >> Ensure financing is available to all, and provide direct support to the poorest and most vulnerable people INDICATORS >> lll Most vulnerable populations and lll Social protection coverage for the poorest communities identified (II) quintile (I) lll Access to financial services for the bottom lll Job opportunities for refugees (II) 40 percent (I) Türkiye has made progress in identifying vulnerable populations but can do more to help the poorest adapt to changing climate conditions and continue supporting them during and after shocks. Türkiye provides for people’s urgent and basic needs—such as food, clothing, shelter, and so on—during disasters and emergencies within the scope of the Social Assistance and Solidarity Law No3294. It also supports those identified as vulnerable after emergencies, through additional aid. The country’s application-based electronic social registry system, the Integrated Social Assistance System (ISAS) identifies people and households in need of social protection programs. Thanks to its data inventory, ISAS represents an important tool for targeting immediate support to vulnerable populations during and in the aftermath of emergencies and shocks, as shown during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, people in or close to poverty still need external support to better respond and adapt to climate change. There is also room to improve the buffers that the poorest populations count on to cope with and recover from hazard impacts to prevent them from falling into deeper poverty and becoming more vulnerable to shocks. For example, Türkiye’s social safety net programs only cover 39.6 percent of the poorest quintile, well below the OECD average of 67 percent (figure 5.3). And only 56 percent of the poorest 40 percent have access to financial services—including bank accounts, credit, and insurance—to cope with and build back after a disaster (figure 5.4). Türkiye is also improving its provision of sustainable job opportunities for refugees, which includes skills and language training for 20,000 Syrians under temporary protection, 50 percent of whom are women (World Bank 2015). However, more data and analysis are needed to quantify skills among Syrians under temporary protection as well as policy and legal measures to promote their employment and improve their living conditions and resilience. 46 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 FIGURE 5.3 >> FIGURE 5.4 > > Social safety net coverage for the poorest quintile Access to financial services for the poorest 40 percent (2019) (2019) 100 100 Share of poorest population quintile (%) Share of poorest 40% of population (%) 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: World Development Indicators Source: World Development Indicators lll Priority Action 2.5 >> Facilitate structural change in the economic system INDICATORS >> lll Diversification of the economy (I) lll Strategy to support the development of sunrise sectors (II) lll Strategy to manage the decline of sunset sectors (II) Low diversification of Türkiye’s economy FIGURE 5.5 > > increases its exposure to external shocks, including those caused by climate change Economic Complexity Index rankings (1995–2019) and disasters. With an Economic Complexity 3 Index33 ranking of 0.61, it is economically 2.5 Economic Complexity Index less diversified than its OECD peers, which have an average ranking of 0.93 (figure 2 5.5). Türkiye’s largest goods exports are in 1.5 moderate-complexity products, textiles, and vehicles, and the technology level of its 1 exports is relatively low. Only 3 percent of Turkish exports are high-tech, and there has 0.5 been little progress in this field over the last 0 decade. Exports have grown by an annual 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 average of 2.1 percent over the past five years, GDP per capita (current US$) which has been a drag on overall economic  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average growth, as exports represent a shrinking Source: The Harvard Growth Lab segment of the economy. But Türkiye has seen a promising pattern of export growth, with the largest contribution coming from high-complexity products, particularly vehicles and 33  Research from the Harvard Growth Lab finds that countries whose exports are more complex than expected for their income level grow faster (https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu). Growth can therefore be driven by a process of diversifying knowhow to produce a broader, and increasingly more complex, set of goods and services. 47 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 industrial machinery products. Further expanding the export base and diversifying the economy can help reduce exposure to climate impacts and other external shocks, and would also be a win- win for accelerating economic growth. A comprehensive strategy for addressing productivity losses in key sectors and obstacles to seize the opportunities brought by new climate conditions would further enable the required green transition (World Bank 2019b). As climate change progresses, some sectors will become less productive and competitive (sunset sectors), and economic activity—including employment— will need to shift toward sectors that capture new competitive advantages (sunrise sectors). The sectors that are most negatively affected by climate change in Türkiye are identified in the Pilot Climate Change Adaptation Market Study (IFC and EBRD 2013) and addressed in the 11th NDP. Türkiye’s response programs to date have included job retraining. It now needs a comprehensive strategy to address the social and economic impacts of climate change on sunset sectors and support the transition to more resilient economic opportunities. Sunrise sectors must also be thoroughly assessed, and high barriers to competition and entrepreneurship addressed (OECD 2016; World Bank 2019a). National research efforts on these issues can contribute to formulating this strategy. Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience Türkiye has made good progress in establishing a general framework for enabling people and firms to adapt to climate change. Public institutions have generated a good level of data needed for effective risk reduction and adaptation planning, and have established operational structures with clear national-level responsibilities for DRM and climate change. There has been progress in identifying and prioritizing vulnerable groups in need of social protection during crises. Building on this progress and based on the results of this assessment, the following recommendations can help the government of Türkiye further strengthen the capacity of people and firms to adapt to climate and disaster risks. Assess climate and disaster risks and make this information available. Facilitating access to crucial climate and disaster information contained in existing but not fully accessible data management infrastructure would enable the production of national and regional risk and vulnerability maps and the use of historical disaster information in decision making. Supporting the generation of more granular information—including local-scale hazard maps and downscaled climate change scenarios—can also facilitate the development of risk reduction and adaptation strategies that are more responsive to local contexts and needs. Developing sectoral climate and natural hazard risk assessments for major economic sectors can further inform the people and firms who depend on them, enabling them to plan appropriate adaptation actions. Clarify responsibilities and align incentives with A&R objectives. Defining climate and DRM roles and responsibilities among central and line ministries, provincial governments, and municipalities will provide clarity and leadership, while establishing residual risk targets to clarify the level of protection public instruments and infrastructure provide against hazards can guide people and businesses to engage in additional risk management approaches, averting potential residual damages and losses. Promoting the development of CCAPs will also help firms identify and manage the risks and opportunities climate change poses to their business and encourage them to integrate A&R in their sustainability risk reporting. 48 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 Facilitate access to technical solutions for resilience through R&D and trade policies. Increasing public and private investment in R&D for A&R and incentivizing innovation can help accelerate the generation and availability of technologies that people and firms need to adapt to climate change. Exploring opportunities for reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers for resilience-related technologies could also bring benefits. Ensure that financing is available to all and provide support to the poorest and most vulnerable people. Registering all vulnerable people in the ISAS, expanding access to financial services—including bank accounts, credit, and insurance schemes—to the poorest 40 percent, and expanding the country’s social safety net programs to cover the poorest quintile can help reach the most vulnerable groups. Facilitate structural change in the economic system. Making policy and fiscal adjustments to promote economic diversification, developing a comprehensive strategy to address the social and economic implications of climate change on sunset sectors, and elaborating feasibility studies for sunrise sectors and markets to support new, emerging industries and economic opportunities in these sectors would help create a more enabling environment for the private sector to internalize climate change risks in investment decisions, seize opportunities brought by new climate conditions, and transition to more resilient and competitive economic sectors and business models. TABLE 5.1 >> Recommendations for facilitating adaptation by people and firms Priority Links to other Fiscal Policy recommendation Priority Lead role Action priority actions implications 2.1 Strengthen the generation and access Short to » MoEUCC 1.2, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, to climate risk and socioeconomic medium-term » AFAD 3.4, 3.5 information for people and firms to use in adaptation planning 2.2 Establish residual risk targets and Medium-term » MoIT 2.1, 3.2, 3.3, 4.2 promote the elaboration of CCAPs » AFAD for private actors to assess and adopt » MoEUCC additional risk management strategies 2.3 Expand the availability of A&R solutions Short to » MoIT 1.1, 2.1, 2.5, 3.4 through increased public and private medium-term » MoT investment in R&D for their development » MoEUCC and by assessing opportunities for the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers for resilience-related technologies 2.4 Strengthen the resilience of vulnerable Short to » MoLSS 1.2, 4.4 populations by facilitating their access to medium-term » MoFSS social protection systems and financial » MoTF services » AFAD 2.5 Build a climate-resilient economy by Short to » MoIT 1.1, 1.2, 2.1 supporting diversification, identifying medium- term » MoT promising sunrise sectors, and creating » MoEUCC a strategy to address the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on sunset sectors Notes: AFAD = Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency; MoEUCC = Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change; MoFSS = Ministry of Family and Social Services; MoIT = Ministry of Industry and Technology; MoLSS = Ministry of Labor and Social Security; MoT = Ministry of Trade; MoTF = Ministry of Treasury and Finance. 49 C H A P T E R 5 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 2 6 C H A P T E R 6 > > A D A P T A T ION PRINCIPLE 3 lll Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical public assets and services “Beyond direct support to households and businesses, governments have a transformative role to play in ensuring their country, their economy and their citizens can adapt to climate change. This is particularly the case to ensure the adaptation of important public assets and infrastructure systems such as power systems, roads, water and sanitation, and essential services such as health care, education, safety, and security. Urban and land use plans also influence massive private investments in housing and productive assets, so it is vital these adapt to evolving long-term climate risks to avoid locking people into high-risk areas.” —The Adaptation Principles PRIORITY ACTIONS lll 3.1 >> Identify critical public assets and services lll 3.2 >> Design and implement a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems and public assets lll 3.3 >> Revise land use plans and urban plans to make them risk-informed lll 3.4 >> Increase the resilience of the agriculture sector and ensure food security lll 3.5 >> Increase the resilience of water infrastructure and water resource management lll 3.6 >> Increase the resilience of the health system lll 3.7 >> Increase the resilience of the education system lll 3.8 >> Increase the resilience of forests and other natural ecosystems This chapter reviews the progress made in adapting critical public assets and services in Türkiye. The assessment includes 46 indicators, corresponding to eight priority actions. Although the overall results indicate emerging progress toward achieving this adaptation principle, more focus is needed in designing and implementing a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems and public assets—the priority action that received the lowest score in the assessment. 50 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 lll Priority Action 3.1 >> Identify critical public assets and services INDICATORS >> lll Critical assets and infrastructure identified (III) lll Logistics Performance Index (LPI) (I) lll Vulnerability of critical assets and lll Energy Architecture Performance Index infrastructure assessed (III) (EAPI) (I) Türkiye has taken steps in identifying critical infrastructure and prioritizing investments to minimize disruptions from climate change and natural disasters. It has established an inventory of public assets and infrastructure and recently started to assess their level of resilience to disasters. There are asset inventories for transport infrastructure (roads, airports, railroads, and ports) and public buildings (80,000 schools and 1,538 hospitals), and the MoEUCC has started using a public structures inventory system (KAYES, in Turkish acronym) to assess the resilience of public buildings against disasters. In 2014, AFAD prepared critical infrastructure roadmaps for 10 sectors, including critical public services and production/commercial facilities. Between 2020 and 2022, Türkiye developed a web-based software for identifying and prioritizing critical infrastructure assets in the health and energy sectors and conducted disaster risk assessments for earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls, avalanches, floods, wind and forest fire risks, and technological disaster risks such as explosions and fire. This allowed for the establishment of a sector-specific disaster-based methodology integrated within the existing critical infrastructure risk analysis system. Türkiye has also developed sector-specific guidelines for government agencies to assess the resilience of critical infrastructures. Accelerating the implementation of these efforts and scaling them up to cover vital assets in all sectors and a wider range of hazards across the entire country would contribute to a complete mapping of critical infrastructure, its vulnerability, and the urgency of retrofitting or investing in other resilience-building actions. Elaborating a national strategy to manage critical infrastructure and systematically assess risk and vulnerability in entire networks and asset inventories, as well as progress in climate impact modelling of transport and other public infrastructure and operations, can form a solid foundation on which to build policies for adaptive management via maintenance and investment programs. There has been progress in energy security and in the performance of the energy system, but Türkiye can further strengthen its logistics to improve competitiveness and enable faster disaster response and recovery.34 Türkiye ranks in the middle tercile of OECD countries in terms of its national energy system performance (energy efficiency, delivery, access, and environmental performance), as indicated by an EAPI score of 0.66 in 2017, compared to the OECD average of 0.71 (figure 6.1). However, its LPI score of 3.15 places it in the bottom tercile of OECD countries, where the average LPI is 3.6 (figure 6.2). LPI is a composite index that connects the enabling conditions for logistics performance and trade competitiveness through infrastructure and trade facilitation metrics, including customs, ease of arranging shipments, quality and competence of logistic services, timeliness, tracking, and tracing. Among these, Türkiye scored lowest for customs and border management in 2018 (Vaillancourt and Haavisto 2016; Arvis et al. 2018). With the prospect of more frequent hazard impacts and disasters due to climate change, Türkiye’s logistics performance should be further improved, as good logistics enable fast disaster response and recovery. 34  Please note that this analysis does not consider the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. 51 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 FIGURE 6.1 >> FIGURE 6.2 > > Energy Architecture Performance Index rankings (2017) Logistics Performance Index rankings (2019) 1.0 5.0 0.9 4.5 0.8 4.0 0.7 3.5 0.6 3.0 EAPI score LPI score 0.5 2.5 0.4 2.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.5 0 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: WEF 2017 Source: World Development Indicators lll Priority Action 3.2 >> Design and implement a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems and public assets INDICATORS >> lll Resilient infrastructure investment needs (I) lll Asset management system (II) lll Long-term resilient infrastructure plan (III) lll Construction standards for infrastructure (III) lll Resilient infrastructure agency (III) lll Construction standards and codes for buildings (II) lll Infrastructure maintenance budget (II) A government-wide, long-term resilient infrastructure master plan can facilitate the resilience-building transformation across the country. Major infrastructure assets in Türkiye are at high risk of natural hazards and climate change impacts. For example, because most of the transport system is exposed to various hazards, the increase in annual investments needed to make all new transport infrastructure resilient by 2030 in Türkiye has been estimated at 10.6 percent above current levels, much higher than the OECD average of 3.6 percent (figure 6.3). However, the economic case for transition to resilient infrastructure is significant; the World Bank’s Lifelines report found that unreliable power and water supply and transport disruptions cost the Turkish economy 2.2 percent of GDP every year (World Bank 2019c). Without action to adapt infrastructure systems, these costs are bound to rise. While incremental spending needs are significant, the gains from making infrastructure more resilient are also higher in Türkiye compared to its OECD peers, as it could reduce annual repair costs by a factor of 7.1, compared to the OECD average of 4.2 (figure 6.4). Although there is no overarching coordinating body or dedicated agency for resilient infrastructure in Türkiye, most agencies are responsible for increasing the resilience of infrastructure and assets, using their own resources to do so. The Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure (MoTI) has recently completed a Transport and Logistics Master Plan in line with European Union (EU) standards, laying out a strategy to support a more sustainable, safe, secure, clean, accessible, inclusive, fast, and technologically 52 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 innovative transport sector. But there is no infrastructure master plan that clearly addresses the resilience aspects of all critical infrastructure. Strengthening public asset management and maintenance is essential for an efficient transition to resilient infrastructure. Stronger management budgets would prevent often postponed maintenance, premature deterioration, shorter economic lifecycles of investments, and late and costly interventions. As infrastructure construction standards do not consider local hazards and criticality, a more effective enforcement mechanism is also needed. More resilient infrastructure requires Türkiye to shift to a preventive approach to infrastructure maintenance and develop an asset management system that can keep an updated inventory of critical infrastructure, its condition, exposure to hazards, maintenance history, and evidence-based maintenance plans. These are both targets in the 11th NDP (2019–23). In the building and residential sector, well-designed standards and regulations are essential to ensure new investments can cope with the most common hazards. Ensuring resilience of critical public buildings, such as hospitals and schools, is important for strengthening public health and community resilience, and Türkiye has made notable progress in this area, such as introducing differentiated seismic design codes based on building use category. But Türkiye would benefit from further enforcing building codes and standards to ensure that private actors also engage in more resilient construction. The 2019 building code considers wind, snow, and earthquake loads, while construction standards and building permits account for earthquake risks in accordance with the 2018 Turkish Building Earthquake Code. This sets a solid basis for reducing the vulnerability of new constructions to various hazards. Ensuring the enforcement of the seismic code in all buildings constructed after 2020, for example, could result in a 17 percent reduction in annual economic losses caused by earthquakes by 2050 (Rao et al. 2022; box 6.1). But time-consuming procedures and limited enforcement mechanisms constrain the application of building codes and standards. It may also be necessary to complement these with financial tools to help households manage the higher upfront costs of increasing resilience (World Bank Group 2022). Solving these constraints can effectively scale up the adoption and protection of resilient structures across municipalities and population groups. FIGURE 6.3 >> FIGURE 6.4 > > Required investment increases for a transition to Reduction in annual repair costs through resilient resilient transport infrastructure by 2030 infrastructure 16 8 Factor of reduction in annual repair costs Share of baseline investment costs (%) 14 7 12 6 10 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: Hallegatte et al. 2019 Source: Hallegatte et al. 2019 53 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 BOX 6.1 >> DEEP DIVE 1 Reducing risks and increasing resilience to earthquakes by enforcing building codes Earthquakes are the most devastating natural disasters FIGURE 6.5 >> in Türkiye. They accounted for 92.6 percent of damaged buildings and 95.9 percent of demolished buildings Risk trajectory for Türkiye’s national-level AAL under between 1900 and 2018 (Öcal 2019). On August 17, 1999, three scenarios a severe series of earthquakes with a moment magnitude 1,300 of 7.6 caused severe damage in Marmara, an industrialized Base, 2050 $1,199 and densely populated urban region. The earthquake’s 1,200 fatality rate was in the range of 14.3 per thousand, while Base, 2040 direct wealth losses amounted to 1.5–3.3 percent of GDP 1,100 $1,061 Case B, 2050 (World Bank 1999). $1,003 1,000 Base, 2030 AAL (US$, millions) $934 Earthquakes will continue to pose a considerable threat 900 Case B, 2040 to Türkiye’s economic development. Located in a complex $928 Base, 2020 Case B, 2030 collision zone between plates, Türkiye will continue to $764 800 $858 be prone to earthquakes. In 2020, the average annual Case C, 2030 economic loss (AAL)a for the Turkish building stock Case C, 2040 $791 700 $778 Case C, 2050 (figure 6.5, Base 2020)—including damage to structural $742 and nonstructural elements and building contents—was Case A2, 2020 600 $674 estimated at US$762.5 million (April 2020), representing about 0.146 percent of the country’s GDP and about 500 Case A1, 2020 0.074 percent of the building stock’s total replacement $477 value. Residential buildings contribute most to national 400 risk (US$620.2 million), followed by commercial buildings 2020 2030 2040 2050 (US$71.6 million), industrial buildings (US$29.6 million), Year educational institutions (US$6 million), and health buildings Source: Based on Rao et al. 2022 (US$1.6 million). Most of the AAL (US$630.2 million of Notes: Base, 2020 represents the AAL of existing buildings in 2020; Case US$765.2 million, or 82 percent) comes from the building A1 (Case A2) estimates the AAL when pre-2020 (post-2020) buildings are adapted to the 2019 seismic building design. Base (Case B) represent the stock of Türkiye’s highly urbanized metropolitan districts. AAL when all new buildings do not adhere (do adhere) to the 2019 design In absolute terms, the housing stock built between 1990 code. Case C represents the scenario where the 2019 code for new buildings is applied and 10, 25 and 50% of the pre-2020 building stock is retrofitted in and 2000 has the highest value (US$223.4 million), 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively, targeting buildings with the highest AAL followed by the 1980–89 stock (US$169.1 million). The potential. average number of annual deaths is 219. Türkiye has regularly updated its building code to mitigate as 11.5 percent when combined with a 50 percent reduction the effects of earthquakes, but until the 1999 earthquake, inoverall thermal energy consumption (Bournas 2018). only a portion of existing buildings complied with it (Ilki and Celep 2012). The Turkish Seismic Design Code has been Enforcing the 2019 building seismic design code for all updated seven times since it was established in 1940, new construction after 2020 would result in a significant most recently in 2018/19 (Sucuoglu 2018; Atmaca et al. decrease in the projected risk trajectory. Simulations 2019). But only a portion of existing buildings followed suggest that by 2050, in a scenario where all buildings the seismic design code until the 1999 earthquake, a constructed after 2020 are aligned with the 2019 seismic milestone in terms of public awareness, which deeply building design code, the AAL would be US$1,003 million affected the public and builders in terms of potential (figure 6.5, Case B, 2050). Enforcing this code would threats to human lives and the economy. reduce the AAL by 17 percent compared to a scenario without implementation, in which the AAL would be Retrofitting pre-2000 buildings has the greatest potential US$1,199 million (figure 6.5, Base, 2050). to improve Türkiye’s resilience. Upgrading buildings constructed before 2000 to the latest seismic design Resilience can be further enhanced through proactive standards, would decrease the AAL of the 2020 Turkish retrofit objectives. Retrofitting 10, 25, and 50 percent building stock by about 38 percent, for a total of US$477 retrofit of the pre-2020 building stock in 2030, 2040, million (figure 6.5, Case A1, 2020). Retrofitting only and 2050 respectively, while also targeting buildings with post-2000 buildings would reduce AAL more moderately the highest AAL can significantly improve the resilience by almost 12 percent, for a total of US$674 million (figure of Turkish buildings. For 2020–50, this strategy would 6.5, Case A2, 2020). The literature suggests a range of keep AAL below US$800 million (figure 6.5, Case 0–3 percent of the incremental cost to implement a more C) in a steadily growing building stock. This combined ambitious building code for new buildings (Multi-Hazard implementation and retrofitting strategy would increase Mitigation Council 2019). Much of the literature estimates the resilience of the Turkish building stock in terms of AAL the cost of retrofitting at 7 percent, but it could be as high by 38 percent in 2050. a AAL is calculated using the sum of the multiplication of the exposure (damage when an earthquake occurs) by the annualized frequency (probability of earthquake occurrence per year) for each earthquake intensity. 54 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 lll Priority Action 3.3 >> Revise urban and land use plans to make them risk-informed INDICATORS >> lll Institutional and regulatory framework for lll Quality of urban plans (III) urban and land use planning (II) lll Identifying areas that are at risk (II) lll Financing for implementing urban plans (III) lll Number of qualified planners per capita (III) Risk-informed urban and land use planning in Türkiye can be further supported by strengthening the related institutional and regulatory framework. Mainstreaming climate and disaster hazards and risks into planning is well defined for urban areas in the MoEUCC’s Urban Development Strategy (KENTGES, in Turkish acronym) (MoEU 2010). However, Law No3194 on Land Development Planning and Control has yet to be updated to integrate climate change and disaster resilience. KENTGES implementation can be further strengthened by increasing efforts to identify areas at risk of various hazard impacts, improving the technical capacity of registered urban planners to integrate disaster risk considerations in their activities (although Türkiye has a high number of urban planners per capita, there is no formal certification program to help identify those with DRM qualifications), and securing the incremental financing needed for implementing disaster risk mitigation measures in urban settings, as these may often exceed available public budgets for executing urban development plans in the absence of public-private partnerships (PPPs). While Türkiye has made progress in identifying buildings at risk of flooding in creek beds and suitable reserve areas for new settlements, disaster risk considerations are often absent from municipal planning processes or included but without sufficient community engagement (World Bank, forthcoming). The range of hazards considered in land use and urban planning needs to be expanded, more broadly communicated to inform new public and private investments and risk mitigation decisions. With high levels of urbanization and increasing exposure to climate hazards, there is good potential for the Turkish population to benefit from such progress. lll Priority Action 3.4 >> Increase the resilience of the agriculture sector and ensure food security INDICATORS >> lll Food vulnerability (I) lll Ex-post assessment of drought impacts (II) lll Climate-smart agriculture strategy (II) lll Public agricultural research expenditure (II) lll Agriculture early warning systems (II) lll Agricultural land irrigated (I) lll Agriculture insurance (II) As Türkiye’s food production systems are highly vulnerable to climate change, a comprehensive strategic and coordinated approach to adaptation is needed across the sector. Türkiye scores 0.34 in the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN)35 food vulnerability score, which captures the vulnerability of the country’s food production, demand, nutrition, and population 35  https://gain.nd.edu. 55 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 to climate change. This score places Türkiye’s food production systems among the most vulnerable in OECD countries, which average 0.26 (figure 6.6).36 In view of Turkish agriculture’s high exposure to climate hazards, adaptation to climate change is a priority in both the National CCAP (2011–23) and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011– 23). But the sector has yet to develop a comprehensive climate change adaptation strategy, including for mainstreaming CSA at the local level, despite the benefits for buffering the effects of climate variability and climate change on agricultural production, and the improvements it could bring to coordinating, implementing, and monitoring mitigation and adaptation actions across the sector (box 6.2). An overarching vision for climate adaptation and resilience in the agriculture sector would ensure that the different DRM planning frameworks are aligned with policy objectives, measures are streamlined, and stakeholder roles and responsibilities are well identified (Bagherzadeh and Shigemitsu 2021). The MoAF’s General Directorate of Water Management has made progress in developing basin- level drought management plans for all water user sectors—including agriculture—to plan and direct recovery, intervention, and other efforts before, during and after a drought. As of 2022, plans have been prepared for 10 of Türkiye’s water basins, and all 25 basins are expected to be covered by the end of 2023. However, these drought management plans and EWS have yet to become fully operational to support risk reduction and decision making at farm level. The National Strategy and Action Plan for Combating Agricultural Drought, implemented through Provincial Drought Action Plans, aims to expand the use of risk assessments and drought mitigation measures, including irrigation. Since 2015, efforts to generate information for crop and yield forecasting and deliver it to farmers have been implemented through the agriculture monitoring and information system (TARBIL, in Turkish acronym). This system is being improved through approaches for delivering tailored climate services for the sector, including early warning and irrigation management information, which are currently being piloted (MoEUCC 2018b). These are promising developments, as a fully operating TARBIL, alongside improved price forecasting systems, could offer key information to different actors in agricultural value chains for reducing the impacts of meteorological and other external shocks. There is a strong commitment toward advancing R&D in agriculture, including for adaptation, but public investment and collaboration with the private sector remain at emerging stages. The Agricultural Research Master Plan (2016–20) includes actions related to adaptation and the assessing climate impacts on agriculture. But during 2017–19, overall R&D in the sector only reached about 5 percent of the total General Service Support Estimate (the annual monetary value of gross transfers to services provided collectively to agriculture). This is well below the spending of many OECD countries. To obtain tangible results, further avenues for collaboration with the private sector and an increase in the public budget allocated to R&D are warranted. An effective agricultural insurance system is in place and increasingly adopted by farmers, protecting them against climate variability, climate change, and other natural hazards. The Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM, in Turkish acronym), established in 2005, offers a variety of products to mitigate the financial impacts of natural hazards on agriculture. TARSIM is built on a public-private joint initiative, with the government covering 50 to 70 percent of the total insurance premium (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management 2018). In 2019, there were more than 2.5 million active policies, insuring over TL 124.3 billion. TARSIM payments to farmers for production losses have also increased in the past years, from TL 841 million in 2016 to TL 2.5 billion in 2021 (TARSIM 2019, 2022), protecting the well-being of farmers from climate extremes and other hazards and supporting their recovery after impacts. 36  In 2019, Türkiye also ranked 41st among 113 countries in the Global Food Security Index (http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com) which considers food affordability, availability, quality, and safety, natural resources, and resilience. However, it descended to the 48th place in 2021, performing particularly low on food affordability. 56 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 Türkiye has made major investments in irrigation that are critical for building resilience against climate variability, but improvements in the efficiency of irrigation systems are still needed. More than a quarter (26 percent) of arable land in Türkiye is equipped for irrigation (over 60,000 square kilometers), slightly more than the OECD average of 25.3 percent (FAOSTAT; World Bank 2020b). Although efforts have been made to modernize irrigation systems—for example, by expanding piped irrigation from 6 percent of the irrigated area in 2003 to 29 percent in 2020— they are often fragmented, inefficient, and outdated, with the total area equipped for irrigation that is actually irrigated stagnating at 52,800 square kilometers since 2008 (FAOSTAT). Improving their condition is a high priority, given that irrigation uses approximately 77 percent of available water in an already water-stressed country and the demand for freshwater is rising (figure 6.7). Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario, water demand could exceed water availability by 2030 (MoEU 2016). Irrigated agriculture is the most affected sector, which has particularly bad implications for the 2.5 percent of the population that faces severe food insecurity.37 FIGURE 6.6 >> FIGURE 6.7 > > Food vulnerability score (2019) Freshwater consumption in Türkiye, by sector (observed 1.0 and projected values) 0.9 120 112.0 Sectoral water consumption (m3, billions) Food vulnerability score (ND-GAIN) 0.8 100 0.7 0.6 80 0.5 0.4 60 54.0 0.3 43.0 44.0 39.3 40.0 40 0.2 30.6 0.1 20 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 0 GDP per capita (current US$) 1990 2000 2004 2008 2014 2016 2023  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Irrigation  Domestic  Industrial Source: ND-GAIN Source: MoEU 2016 37  Global Food Security Index (GFSI). http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/. 57 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 BOX 6.2 >> DEEP DIVE 2 Adaptation and resilience in Türkiye’s agriculture Agriculture plays an important This has driven groundwater compounded by the sector’s role in Türkiye’s economy but is levels across the country to the complex social characteristics, vulnerable to a range of climate- lowest percentiles, affecting crop requiring strong institutional related risks. The agriculture sector production (Patel 2021). With rising and cross-sectoral coordination. accounted for about 6.7 percent temperatures and extreme weather Millions of farmers face difficulties of GDP in 2020, employed 18 events, land degradation through in sustaining their livelihoods percent of the workforce, and made topsoil erosion is also a serious due to a lack of capacity to up more than 10 percent of total threat to the sector. Water erosion manage climate risks as well as exports (including food, beverage, has displaced 642 million tons of insufficient infrastructure and and tobacco manufacturing). soil in Türkiye (ÇEM 2018), leading institutional support. There is a About 55 percent of Türkiye’s land to high risk of land degradation and lack of awareness and knowledge area is used for agriculture, and desertification across one-third on adaptation to climate change in the sector is the country’s largest of the country’s territory (Uzuner agriculture among public agencies, water user, accounting for more and Dengiz 2020). Similarly, financial institutions, and farmers’ than 85 percent of total freshwater organic matter, which regulates soil organizations. This leads to abstractions, compared with the structure and the nutrient and water insufficient demand in developing OECD average of 42 percent (OECD absorption capacity of the soils, is tailored financing instruments 2020). Türkiye is exposed to a range also sensitive to rising temperatures for climate-smart solutions of natural hazards, including floods, and precipitation, and its depletion or mainstreaming innovative drought, frost, avalanche, forest can significantly reduce agricultural adaptation strategies in the sector. fire, desertification, earthquakes, productivity. Constrained by acute Deep regional income disparities and landslides. Of these, drought water stress, compromised soil and social divides further hinder and storms have severe impacts on quality, and severe storms in some access to skilled labor in rural areas, the agricultural sector. For example, regions, Türkiye exhibits a higher constraining the dissemination of the 2007–08 drought led to food vulnerability compared to the resilient technology and innovation, sectoral losses of US$1.4–2.2 billion OECD average. while a high degree of farm (Bagherzadeh and Shigemitsu fragmentationa poses a substantial 2021). Limited annual rainfall (574 Extreme weather events challenge to farm infrastructure millimeters)—below the OECD and exposure to increased investments such as large-scale average and compounded by the temperatures can also adversely pressurized irrigation. Deeper uneven distribution of precipitation affect animal and plant health, stakeholder engagement with across time and space—causes resulting in increased propensity farmers (including smallholders) is more intense and frequent for disease incidence. Climate- needed to enhance their capacity droughts in the central, southern, related events can create even to prevent, prepare for, and respond and southeastern regions (Santos more favorable conditions for to climate-related challenges, et al. 2016), while floods and the emergence of existing and to minimize their impacts on landslides are more prominent in introduction of new plant diseases farmers, supply chain actors, and other parts of the country. In the and infectious and/or vector-borne consumers. Institutionally, Türkiye’s mid-to-long term, climate change animal diseases and zoonoses. agricultural DRM framework for patterns and associated water Türkiye has experienced recent droughts—including the Strategy stress are expected to significantly outbreaks including 997 outbreaks for Combatting Agricultural impact agricultural yields and the of peste des petits ruminants Drought and Action Plan—falls viability of producing certain crops between 1999 and 2018 and 180 mostly under the general (particularly water-intensive ones) outbreaks of lumpy skin disease in directorates of the Ministry of in specific regions, posing a major 2019 and 5 in 2020 (EFSA Panel on Agriculture and Forestry (MoAF). threat to Türkiye’s farmers (Dudu Animal Health and Welfare 2015). While multiple policy frameworks and Çakmak 2018). Other animal diseases prevalent are in place for drought governance, in the country include brucellosis, including disaster response plans, The agriculture sector’s vulnerability which affects around 1.43 five-year development plans, to climate change can exacerbate percent of the animal population, CCAPs, agriculture and water policy food price pressures and overall tuberculosis, and foot-and-mouth frameworks, responsibilities among food security concerns resulting disease. Overall, these diseases relevant agencies remain to be from limited affordability (Frankfurt cause significant economic losses further clarified and coordinated School of Finance & Management in the Turkish livestock sector and in an integrated manner. Recent 2018). In recent years, Türkiye has can represent important risks to institutional changes have attached experienced severe droughts: 2020 human health. the DSI and the General Directorate was the driest in the previous five for Water Management (SYGM, years, and 2021 saw the warmest The effects of climate change in Turkish acronym) to the MoAF, months in the past half-century. on Türkiye’s agriculture are strengthening the ministry’s a The average farm in Türkiye occupies 5.9 hectares (2001 census data), compared with 12 hectares in the EU and 180 hectares in the United States. The mid-point of total land distribution (50%–50% benchmark) falls within the same farm-size class (10–20 hectares). 58 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 BOX 6.2 >> DEEP DIVE 2 CONTINUE D capacity to secure water resources in the agriculture sector and climate, while building resilience and for agriculture in the face of climate inform investments in risk transfer adaptive capacity. uncertainty. mechanism design. For example, the Next Generation Drought Index, a CSA can facilitate a triple-win Building climate resilience in the new global platform spearheaded for sustainable agriculture agriculture sector against drought by the World Bank, provides early development, climate change and other natural hazards is a key and high-quality drought risk adaptation, and GHG emission adaptation challenge for Türkiye. information that can be used to reductions in Türkiye. CSA Climate change impacts on the assess the expected impacts of an is an integrated approach to agriculture sector are expected unfolding drought event early on, managing landscapes—cropland, to exacerbate in the coming helping establish a timely response livestock, forests, and fisheries— decades, requiring improved and facilitating the development of that addresses the interlinked risk management, planning, and multiple instruments for drought- challenges of food security and adaptive innovation. A set of priority risk reduction (World Bank 2022). accelerating climate change actions to reduce vulnerability to, (World Bank 2021a). CSA aims transfer, and cope with climate- Protecting soil health by adopting to simultaneously achieve three related risks are at the core of sustainable soil and land outcomes: enhanced resilience, effective adaptation strategies management practices is essential increased productivity, and reduced in the agriculture sector. Türkiye for strengthening adaptation, GHG emissions. Examples of CSA has identified agriculture as a core agricultural productivity, and range from traditional practices, priority in its National Climate food security. Conservation and such as organic farming, to NbS, Change Adaptation Strategy and better soil and land management such as conservation agriculture Action Plan (2011–23) and has been has emerged as a key priority for and ecosystem-based approaches investing in building adaptation climate change adaptation and to production, and modern through, for example, R&D efforts mitigation both globallyb and in technologies. These include on drought-and-disease tolerant Türkiye, where the government has alternate wetting and drying, which plant varieties, EWS, supporting taken important regulatory actions can minimize energy and water improved agricultural practices, and to address issues of soil and land use while improving crop yields, expanding protected agriculture, degradationc and implemented and precision agriculture, which yet these efforts would need to grant schemes for farmers to applies digital technologies for be scaled up in the years ahead, as encourage soil conservation and improved decision-making in crop climate-related challenges intensify. good agricultural practices such and livestock production based on The Agricultural Insurance Pool as organic agriculture. Further real-time data, and can therefore TARSIM is a strategic risk-transfer enhancing institutional capacities effectively respond to climate risks instrument established in 2005 to provide key services such as and emergencies, contributing to to compensate and minimize laboratory-based animal and plant enhanced crop production and farmers’ financial losses due to disease surveillance and diagnosis, efficient input use. Protected climate and other natural risks, strengthening land and water agriculture simultaneously with more than US$14 billion information systems, enhancing increases adaptation and insured in 2021 (TARSIM 2022). understanding of the impacts of productivity, while generating It provides subsidized insurance climate change on agriculture at important input-use efficiencies. services for crops, greenhouses, local levels, and identifying tailored Investments in expanding and cattle, sheep and goats, beehives, solutions anchored in strong R&D modernizing irrigation systems and aquaculture, and poultry and efforts and institutional innovation effective water use and storage has seen a significant increase will be key to enhancing agricultural are top priority triple-win solutions in compensation levels paid to planning and effective land use, for scaling up adaptation in the farmers against losses. Still, there is including approaches to encourage Turkish agricultural sector. Recent potential to improve stakeholders’ the production of crops with low International Finance Corporation access to farm loss data, which water needs in water-restricted estimates suggest that investing in are limited to use by policymakers regions. Coping with climate change CSA in four emerging economies and insurers (Bagherzadeh and through social safety nets and in Europe, including Türkiye, could Shigemitsu 2021). Improved private food reserves, among others, are generate an US$80 billion market sector access to ex-post and ex- other complementary measures while reducing 15.1 million tons of ante risk-related data can increase to help farmers and rural villagers GHG emissions and generating 2.5 awareness of climate vulnerability overcome the impacts of a changing million jobs (IFC 2021). b For example, in November 2021, the EU launched the EU Soil Strategy for 2030, Reaping the benefits of healthy soils for people, food, nature and climate. c Law No5403 on Soil Preservation and Land Utilization, issued in 2005, sets the rules and principles for determining land and soil resources and their classification, preparing land use plans, preventing non-purpose use, and establishing the requirements to ensure land and soil preservation. 59 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 lll Priority Action 3.5 >> Increase the resilience of water infrastructure and water resource management (WRM) INDICATORS >> lll WRM strategy incorporating climate change lll Water productivity (I) considerations (II) lll Dedicated WRM agencies (II) lll Untreated water discharge (II) lll National water information system (NWIS) (II) The General Directorate of Water Management is progressively developing climate change- informed WRM plans in Türkiye, has already assessed potential climate change impacts on surface and groundwater for its 25 river basins and identified adaptation measures, and has developed drought, flood management, and sectoral water allocation plans for several basins. The prospects for implementing these and other plans that are under development are promising, as Türkiye has a good WRM governance system, with competent agencies and the technical capacity to analyze and monitor climate risks to guide adaptation processes in WRM (box 6.3). The National Watershed Management Strategy (2014–23) and National Water Plan (2019–23), prepared by the General Directorate of Water Management, provide an overarching WRM strategy that integrates the results of the WRM plans, including climate change considerations, with responsible institutions intended to implement the actions included therein. However, Türkiye’s WRM governance framework remains somewhat fragmented, with a number of administrative and legislative shortcomings that limit efficiency in core functions. There is a need for further review and strengthening of the governance framework to improve efficiency and effectiveness, by completing sector reforms, including enacting the Draft Water Law, which has been pending parliamentary approval since 2016. Türkiye has also advanced the development of an NWIS with multiple modules that capture data and information on, among other things, water quality and quantity, allocations, loss and leakage, natural disasters, and climate change (World Bank 2020b). The participation of all institutions relevant to WRM in sharing and uploading their georeferenced information in the NWIS and granting public access to these data and information would contribute to the system’s long-term sustainability and use in development, adaptation, and resilience interventions. A pilot project in Gaziantep Province, “Preparation of Drinking and Potable Water Safety Plan from Source to Tap”, will also serve as a guide across the country for municipalities and local water administrations to undertake risk management and emergency action plans, including climate change projections. Addressing declining water quantity and quality is essential for reducing the vulnerability of the country’s scarce water resources to economic pressures and climate change. Water security for high-value economic sectors in Türkiye is already low, as indicated by a Water Productivity Index of US$20 per cubic meter, much lower than the OECD average of US$156.4 (figure 6.8). Türkiye’s available freshwater per capita is only half the global average (World Bank Group 2022) and is expected to drop further with population growth and climate change (figure 6.9). Securing water availability for agriculture, industrial processes, services (including energy provision and tourism), and households under current water allocation regimes is a major adaptation challenge, which is compounded by water quality issues. One-third of Türkiye’s rivers suffer from pollution from land sources (domestic, industrial, and agricultural), particularly phosphorus and nitrate contamination, which can enhance the eutrophication of freshwater bodies as temperature rises (MoEUCC 2018a; World Bank 2020b). Groundwater salinization, due to over-extraction and sea level rise, is also 60 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 F I G U R E 6 .8 > > FIGURE 6.9 > > Water Productivity Index rankings (2016) Renewable freshwater resources per capita in Türkiye (1965–2017) 1,600 18,000 Renewable internal freshwater resources 1,400 Freshwater productivity (% GDP) 16,000 1,200 14,000 1,000 12,000 per capita (m3) 800 10,000 8,000 600 6,000 400 4,000 200 2,000 0 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 GDP per capita (current US$) 20  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  OECD average Source: World Development Indicators Source: World Development Indicators BOX 6.3 >> DEEP DIVE 3 Water management challenges and A&R opportunities in Türkiye Water is an important natural capital 6 percent of GDP and about US$50 freshwater lake, has gone from 24 for Türkiye but is under increasing billion in monetary losses (Taheripour meters 25 years ago and to less stress. Türkiye is experiencing local et al. 2020). Although the study only than 9 meters today (FAO 2017). and regional water shortages due considers climate change impacts on Turkish shorelines, particularly in the to significant population increase, the agriculture sector, the economic Central and Eastern Black Sea, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity, impacts of growing water scarcity Northern Aegean Sea, and Eastern and increasing water use in are significant and will deepen. Mediterranean, are negatively development sectors. The country Negative impacts are also likely in affected by flooding, coastal relies heavily on its internal water other key sectors, such as energy— erosion, and seawater intrusion resources (227 square kilometers per as water is needed for cooling (UNDP 2022a). According to a 2016 year) and suffers from freshwater and hydropower production—and climate change assessment, water scarcity—holding only half of the industry. resources are expected to decrease global average freshwater resources from the currently estimated 112 per capita. More than half of its river Floods and drought remain billion to about 86 billion cubic basins are under water stress. Some and will continue to represent meters by 2050 in an optimistic of its more populated cities, such as considerable threats to Türkiye’s climate scenario (MoAF 2016b). Istanbul, have less than 500 cubic economic development, even in the Considering its crucial role in food meters of freshwater access per year most optimistic climate scenario. security, green energy, tourism, for each of its millions of inhabitants. Potential drying associated with and industry, water is among the Türkiye is ranked 78th among 147 rising temperatures, changes key resources that could become a countries in the Water Scarcity Index, in precipitation patterns, and binding constraint for green growth which indicates a low performance reduced seasonal snow storage in Türkiye. in water resource storage and water represents significant risks for quality (Çapar 2019). Climate change Türkiye’s development. Drought and The combined effects of climate will exacerbate existing water excessive water abstraction has change and marine pollution pose scarcity conditions, with a significant already resulted in various wetlands significant risks for the quality of water deficit expected in all sectors and lakes drying, with major Türkiye’s freshwater resources. in the next decade (figure 6.10), socioeconomic and environmental Approximately 15 percent of especially in urban areas, agriculture, consequences. Almost half of Türkiye’s residential wastewater is and industry. This deficit will also Türkiye’s famous salt lakes— discharged untreated or partially represent major costs to the Turkish including Lake Tuz (Hansen 2021), treated, and about 40 percent of economy: a World Bank assessment Eregli Marshes, and Bafa Lake— industrial wastewater (excluding has been estimated that a 10 percent have dried out and are transforming cooling water) is discharged reduction in water supply due to into salt basins. The depth of untreated into natural water climate change could cost Türkiye Beysehir Lake, Türkiye’s largest bodies. Water quality was the most 61 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 BOX 6.3 >> DEEP DIVE 3 CONTINUE D important environmental problem and modelling and is considering Institutional arrangements to for more than a third of the cities and integrating climate adaptation ensure effective water governance assessed in 2018 by the MoEUCC into river basin management plans, and climate resilience can be (MoEUCC 2018a). One-third of drought management plans, flood strengthened through improved Türkiye’s lakes and about half of its management plans, and sectoral cross-sectoral collaboration rivers are considered “contaminated” water allocation plans (MoEUCC and stakeholder engagement. or “highly contaminated” by 2018b). But it should also consider Opportunities for climate change phosphorus and nitrogen. Municipal other socioecological impacts of adaptation in the water sector wastewater with excessive nutrients water infrastructure interventions— include increasing water-energy from fertilizer, human and animal for example, although building use efficiency, promoting circular waste, and other sources pollutes dams and reservoirs may bring economy approaches, modernizing freshwater, emits carbon dioxide via adaptive benefits, if not carefully aging hydraulic infrastructure, the biological breakdown of organic designed, they can also have adopting NbS, and harnessing water matter, and depletes oxygen from negative impacts on local residents energy innovations (World Bank open waters. Higher temperatures and ecosystems (OECD 2017). Group 2022). Implementing these further increase the possibility of Through the Adaptation to Climate strategies can generate co-benefits harmful algae blooms, which impact Change in Water Resources project, for food security, climate change aquatic life and the self-remediation the General Directorate of Water mitigation, DRM, ecosystem health, ability of freshwater ecosystems, Management expects to reveal and sustainable development, but including wetlands. The degradation the actual costs and benefits of requires concerted coordination of these ecosystems further impacts rainwater harvesting, gray water among and enhanced institutional biodiversity and other essential use and water pricing activities, capacity of management agencies ecosystem services, such as weather and share the results with all with varied water management regulation, flood mitigation, and metropolitan cities. However, at mandates. Two dedicated recreational services. The recent basin level, more comprehensive WRM agencies are in place and Marmara Sea mucilage outbreak is risk assessments and stakeholder operational within the MoAF: a striking example of the combined engagement are needed to identify the DSI, in charge of operational effects of climate change and low synergies and trade-offs across investments in the water sector, water quality and their potential to basin management and related and the SYGM, in charge of WRM damage the fisheries, tourism, and plans (Hommes et al. 2016). Despite and policy across water subsectors health sectors.a their socioeconomic value, water- and impact assessment (MoEU related services (including water 2011; World Bank 2020b). Each Türkiye has made progress in supply and wastewater treatment) metropolitan municipality also has strengthening climate resilience are energy-intensive—for example, a general directorate of water and for WRM, but trade-offs persist though pumping and irrigation— wastewater administration (SKI, regarding impacts on ecosystems, which increases GHG emissions. Low in Turkish acronym) to manage local communities, and carbon performing water service delivery, water supply and sanitation emissions. The government has including outdated infrastructure, services. Better coordination across assessed the impacts of climate leads to low water productivity government levels and agencies change on the groundwater and (US$20 per cubic meter, compared to and deeper engagement of multiple surface waters of Türkiye’s 25 river an OECD average of US$156.4). More stakeholders in decision making basins and identified adaptation research is needed to bridge the will be key for fulfilling the potential activities (MoAF 2016b). It has also water productivity gap and identify of water governance for climate- conducted vulnerability assessments enhanced management solutions. resilient development. a Climate Change ‘Sea Snot’ Killing Türkiye’s Marmara Sea. News article available at: https://www.aljazeera.com. FIGURE 6.10 >> Water stress across Türkiye (2015–40) a. Water stress baseline with population (2015) Water stress (2015 baseline)  Low (<10%)  Low to medium (10–20%)  Medium to high (20–40%)  High (40–80%)  Extremely high (>80%) White line: basin border City population (2015, thousands) <300 307–500 501–750 751–1,000 1,001–5,000 5,001–14,164 250 km 62 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 BOX 6.3 >> DEEP DIVE 3 CONTINUE D b. Projected water stress under a business as usual scenario (2040) Water stress (2040 BAU)  Low (<10%)  Low to medium (10–20%)  Medium to high (20–40%)  High (40–80%)  Extremely high (>80%) Number labels indicate water stress index 250 km c. Difference in water stress between 2015 and 2040 Water stress change (2015–40 baseline)  1.4x increase  2x increase  2.8x or greater increase White line: basin border Red numbers indicate % change 250 km Source: WRI Aqueduct Global Water Risk Mapping Tool Note: Water stress estimates were calculated using the ratio of total annual water withdrawals to total available annual renewable supply, accounting for upstream consumptive use. a latent risk for coastal aquifers. Reducing the vulnerability of scarce water resources in Türkiye is therefore urgent and depends on improving water use efficiency and other aspects of WRM at the sectoral level as well as on proactive and effective control of freshwater pollution from land sources. Aware of this situation, the government of Türkiye has engaged in extensive research to improve water usage efficiency and raise the water productivity index and enacted legal provisions to prevent water losses in the water supply network infrastructure and in agricultural irrigation; it is also conducting sector-based studies on water efficiency in industrial facilities.38 38  https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SYGM/Link/13/Su-Verimliligi. 63 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 lll Priority Action 3.6 >> Increase the resilience of the health system INDICATORS >> lll International Health Regulations (IHR) lll Health risk communication (I) average score (I) lll Health expenditure as percent of GDP (I) lll Surge demand health capacity (I) lll Health sector emergency response plan (II) lll Medical countermeasures stockpiles (II) Strengthening Türkiye’s health system with enhanced national investments to improve health care access and quality and to better cope with surge demand during emergencies can enhance its preparedness for the increasing frequency of natural disasters, including pandemics. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) global health expenditure database shows that, between 2015 and 2019, Türkiye invested an average of 4.2 percent of its GDP per year on health care, compared to an OECD average of 8.8 percent (figure 6.11). This lower level of health system investment also impacts access and quality of health care: the global Healthcare Access and Quality Index shows that Türkiye ranks low among OECD countries (Fullman et al. 2018). It is, however, making progress in other areas of its health system. It ranks in the middle tercile of OECD countries in the WHO International Health Regulations (IHR) score, with a score of 88 compared with an average of 83 across the OECD39 (figure 6.12). The IHR40 provides a measure of national performance on 13 capacities needed to detect, assess, notify, report, and respond to public health risk and acute events of domestic and international concern. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed a national health sector emergency response plan, the Hospital Disaster and Emergency Response Plan Preparation Guide (MoH 2021), and benefits from excellent health risk communication mechanisms, with an IHR score of 80, compared with the OECD average of 71.5. It has good medical countermeasures stockpiles—including vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics—and mechanisms for procuring and distributing them.41 However, there is still space for Türkiye to FIGURE 6.11 >> FIGURE 6.12 > > WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (2015–19) WHO IHR average scores (2020) 18 100 16 90 WHO health expenditure (% of GDP) 14 80 70 12 WHO IHR score 60 10 50 8 40 6 30 4 20 2 10 0 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: WHO IHR Source: WHO IHR 39  This score is the average for all 13 capacities included in the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting Tool (SPAR). 40  https://www.who.int/westernpacific/health-topics/international-health-regulations. 41  https://extranet.who.int/e-spar. 64 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 increase the number of health workers to meet surge demand in emergency situations and further strengthen the provision of timely health services during and after disasters. While the WHO recommends 4.45 doctors, nurses, and midwives per 1,000 population for routine services plus a 30 percent surge capacity and one field epidemiologist per 200,000 people, Türkiye only has 1.9 doctors and 2.4 nurses per 1,000 inhabitants (2019). This is one of the lowest among OECD countries.42 Strengthening the health care workforce can reduce the vulnerability of people and health system operations to a rapidly increasing frequency of health emergencies under climate change. These may be caused by slow-onset events, such as drought effects on nutrition and increasing vector-borne disease, or sudden hazard impacts, including floods and heatwaves. Evidence shows, for example, that in Antalya, people with congestive heart failure are admitted to the emergency services more frequently in hot months (MoEUCC 2018b). lll Priority Action 3.7 >> Increase the resilience of the education system INDICATORS >> lll Disaster-proof schools (I) lll Resources to enable remote learning (I) lll Operational standards for use of schools as lll A&R included in the education curriculum (III) shelters (II) lll Safe and continued learning environment (III) Assessing disaster risks and retrofitting school buildings will enable their use as emergency shelters. AFAD has set clear standards for emergency shelter operation and access (AFAD 2022). But the majority of public school buildings still need to be assessed against disaster risks to reduce the vulnerability of children and school staff to earthquakes and other hazard impacts while at school, and enable the use of these buildings as safe emergency shelters in the aftermath of disasters (UNISDR 2015b). To advance in this area, the MoNE has established safety precautions criteria for school inspections. These include criteria for fire, earthquakes and other natural hazards, as well as criteria to increase the access of persons under temporary protection (asylum seekers and refugees) to educational opportunities. Nevertheless, risk assessments and the implementation of corresponding retrofitting measures are urgently needed to enable AFAD and the MoNE to place new shelters in all schools. These interventions will provide vulnerable people with safe places and the necessary basic resources to survive hazard impacts. Measures to ensure minimum educational disruptions due to disasters are in place but ICT skills and low access to home computers do not allow all students to fully tap into the potential offered by the government’s online education services. The MoNE has initiated necessary interventions for increasing the resilience of school buildings and maintaining continuity of education during emergencies and in disaster zones. During the COVID-19 pandemic, public schools used the distance education services provided by the Digital Education System, including lessons delivered through television and mobile and computer technology for students with access (World Bank 2021d). But only 50 percent of Turkish households have access to a computer, compared with the OECD average of 80 percent (figure 6.13) and only 7.5 percent of teachers have good ICT skills, compared to the OECD average of 17.7 percent, which are crucial for remote teaching. Therefore, the digital divide acts as a barrier to education continuity during emergencies.43 42  OECD Data. http://data.oecd.org. 43  Due to lack of more recent information, the analysis is based on 2017 data. It is recognized that more recent data would better reflect the progress Türkiye has made in this aspect through and after the COVID-19 pandemic. 65 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 Türkiye is making efforts to educate teachers FIGURE 6.13 > > and students on basic climate and disaster Households with home computer access (2017) awareness concepts, but there is no age- 100 specific climate change and DRM curriculum. 90 Several climate awareness programs have 80 Share of households (%) been developed at national and state level, 70 such as the Global Climate Change Mitigation 60 Course that is delivered in public education 50 centers. Within the scope of the Disaster 40 Ready School project, the TSMS, MoNE, and 30 AFAD trained more than 50,000 teachers in 20 basic disaster awareness concepts in 2019 10 and strengthened learning processes on 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 meteorology, climate change and DRM in GDP per capita (current US$) primary and secondary schools. The MoNE  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average and AFAD also developed the Disaster Source: OECD Data Awareness Education Course Program that is currently taught in public education centers. The MoNE and MoEUCC are also collaborating in providing environmental awareness and climate change training for teachers and, as of 2022, the “environmental education” elective course for grades 7 and 8 will be taught under the name of “environmental education and climate change” to students from grade 6. Other environmental programs with a focus on climate change for schoolchildren being implemented include: the Zero Waste Project executed under the leadership of the first lady, and the Clean School and Clean Energy Project, started in January 2022, which will implement mitigation, adaptation, and environmental protection actions in schools. Strengthening the climate change and DRM curriculum at all formal and nonformal education and training levels will help generate a clearer understanding of risk, risk reduction, and adaptation options. It also opens the opportunity for children and youth to act as agents of change and contribute to resilience building. lll Priority Action 3.8 >> Increase the resilience of forests and other natural ecosystems INDICATORS >> lll Use of NbS for adaptation and resilience (II) lll Land degradation (I) lll Forests and climate change strategy (II) lll Biodiversity Habitat Index (I) lll Blue economy strategy (II) lll Ecosystem Services Index (I) lll Natural capital accounting (II) Nature-based solutions have yet to be mainstreamed in national adaptation strategies and plans, despite their growing global recognition as cost-effective adaptation and risk reduction measures with multiple benefits. Both the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23) and the National Climate Change Strategy (2010–23) developed by the MoEUCC include short-, medium-, and long-term goals to incorporate climate change into forests and other natural ecosystems management and planning, which are the responsibility of the MoAF. The General Directorate of Forestry’s (OGM, in Turkish acronym) strategic plan 66 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 includes several actions relevant for climate change adaptation, but there is no detailed climate change vulnerability assessment or budgeted climate change adaptation plan for the forest sector. Türkiye’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23) provides for actions to integrate adaptation considerations in marine and coastal zone management, but the country has yet to develop a comprehensive blue economy strategy to ensure the health of marine and coastal ecosystems and strengthen their role in climate adaptation and resilience (box 6.4). Türkiye has made progress toward natural capital accounting to keep track of the quantity and quality of its natural assets but has not integrated the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework into its national accounts system. The country has established a reasonable statistical system for its natural capital, which provides access to physical data and accounts of key natural resources and other statistics on air, water, wastewater, waste, environmental, and other expenditures since 1990 (Statistical Commission 2018). But the existence and availability of these data has not yet informed decision making or led to the creation of policies that involve the sustainable use of natural resources as a powerful tool for adaptation and sustainable economic growth. Türkiye has made efforts to protect its ecosystems and their essential services, including carbon sequestration, water regulation, and pollination, but more efforts are needed to ensure adaptation benefits. The country is rich in biodiversity, hosts a wide range of ecosystems including forests, mountains, steppes, wetlands, coastlines, and seas, and accommodates about 11,000 plant species, a third of which is endemic (IUCN 2018). It is one of the few countries where the area of forest lands is increasing (FAO 2020; figure 6.14)—from 20.2 million hectares in 1973 to 23.1 million in 2021 (OGM 2021). Through forest management and harvested wood products, the forestry sector offsets 10 to 20 percent of total GHG emissions (TurkStat 2022). Türkiye ranks above its OECD peers in the Yale Ecosystem Services Index, which measures the state of forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems, scoring 37.1, compared with the OECD average of 33.1 (figure 6.15). But it has been less successful in protecting its biodiversity from habitat loss, degradation and/or fragmentation, as shown by the Yale Biodiversity Habitat Index, which places it 175th out of 180 countries, with a score of 15.1, compared with the OECD average of 75.8 (figure 6.16). This is partly due to severe land degradation processes, for which it is in the middle tercile of OECD countries, with 9 percent of the total land surface degraded in 2015 compared with the OECD average of 11.5 percent (figure 6.17) and 32 percent of the national FIGURE 6.14 >> FIGURE 6.15 > > Net change in forest area (2010–20) Ecosystem Services Index rankings (2020) 400 100 300 90 Ecosystem Services Index score 80 (thousands of hectacres/year) 200 Forest area net change 70 100 60 50 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 40 -100 30 -200 20 10 -300 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 -400 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: FAO 2020 Source: Yale University Environmental Performance Index 67 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 F I G U R E 6 .1 6 > > FIGURE 6.17 > > Biodiversity Habitat Index rankings (2020) Land degradation as share of total land area (2015) 100 50 90 45 Biodiversity Habitat Index score 80 40 Share of total land area (%) 70 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: Yale University Environmental Performance Index Source: Sachs et al. 2021 BOX 6.4 >> DEEP DIVE 4 Türkiye’s marine and coastal ecosystems as key sources of NbS for A&R Türkiye has a wealth of coastal rise and storm surges could cost carbon dioxide emissions worldwide, natural capital that can support a Istanbul US$200 million annually until oceans play a vital role in mitigating vibrant blue economy. The Turkish 2030, increasing up to US$10 billion global climate change, with the value peninsula is 8,333 kilometers long annually by 2100 (Abadie et al. 2016). of carbon sequestration over the and is bordered by four seas: the Moreover, the resulting changes to entire Mediterranean basin estimated Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the marine processes and functions are at €337.3 million per year (Melaku Aegean Sea, and the Sea of Marmara. projected to have serious impacts Canu et al. 2015). But Türkiye has This rich and diverse coastline delivers on key economic sectors such as seen an increase in coastal pollution valuable benefits to a large number tourism and fisheries, which are in recent years and climate change of coastal inhabitants and supports highly reliant on climate-sensitive may exacerbate its detrimental a wide range of economic activities. resources. The anchovy population effects. Nutrient overload, caused by Although coastal cities cover less than has already diminished as a result of excess agricultural runoff and urban 5 percent of Türkiye’s total surface seawater warming in the much cooler and industrial wastewater, is causing area, they comprise 51 percent of the northern Black Sea regions (Tekinay serious harm to coastal marine population, 80 percent of industrial and Guroy 2007). Future projections ecosystems and represents the activities and 90 percent of tourism indicate that, with the exception of main cause of marine eutrophication. income (Albayrakoğlu 2011). The sprat, all fish stock could decrease According to several experts, the main economic and social activities in all the Black Sea regions. Climate- massive mucilage outbreak in the in these coastal zones largely depend driven changes are also expected to Marmara Sea during the summer of on marine and coastal ecosystems have long- and short-term impacts on 2021 is linked to nutrient pollution and their underlying functions for aquaculture, one of Türkiye’s fastest- combined with complex temperature supporting key economic sectors growing industries where production and water exchange impacts from such as tourism and fisheries, is projected to reach 600,000 metric climate change. creating and sustaining jobs, fostering tons in 2023, with a value of around industries and trade, and providing US$2 billion (Çoban et al. 2020). Realizing the potential of Türkiye’s blue food and protection against storms economy is likely to be increasingly and other natural hazards. Türkiye’s coastal and marine challenging under climate change ecosystems are increasingly in the coming decades. Climate Climate change is expected to threatened by climate change and change impacts are likely to increase significantly impact Türkiye’s blue anthropogenic stressors. Warming dramatically toward the end of this economy. Sea level rise is expected temperatures and ocean acidification century and risk further compromising to damage economic assets and are weakening the oceans’ and the already fragile health and resilience activities in coastal areas that are coasts’ ability to provide critical of marine ecosystems and their nationally important for economic ecosystem services such as coastal ability to sustainably support the productivity. According to a recent protection, food, and carbon storage. prosperity of Türkiye’s blue economy. study, potential losses from sea level By absorbing about one-third of Maintaining a robust blue economy will 68 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 BOX 6.4 >> DEEP DIVE 4 CONINUED therefore depend on swift efforts to increasingly threatened by human support efforts toward climate change adapt to a changing climate, and NbS activities. NbS are often cheaper adaptation and mitigation. MPAs represent particularly sustainable and than traditional gray infrastructure provide the natural infrastructure, such cost- effective strategic approaches approaches, such as dikes, dams, as storm protection, to reduce human that incorporate ecosystems within storm barriers, and sea walls (Debele vulnerability in the face of climate climate efforts and can be rapidly et al. 2019). Wetlands, for example, change and represent an important implemented. NbS are actions regulate floods and protect water tool for fish nursery and recovery, and to protect, sustainably manage, resources during droughts. A study for supporting the protection of blue and restore natural and modified shows that wetland restoration can carbon ecosystems. According to a ecosystems that effectively and yield benefit-to-cost ratios above World Wide Fund for Nature report, adaptively address societal challenges, 3.5 on average—meaning that every one year before the 2020 deadline, simultaneously providing human well- US$1 spent on wetland restoration Türkiye had not fulfilled the 2020 being and biodiversity benefits (IUCN generates more than US$3.50 in Convention on Biological Diversity 2016). direct flood-reduction benefits—while Aichi target of designating at least 10 many gray solutions have benefit-to- percent of its territorial and offshore NbS approaches can play a significant cost ratios near or below one-to-one waters as MPAs. By 2019, it had role in building a resilient and and are expensive to implement at only designated 6.77 percent of its sustainable Turkish blue economy. scale (Reguero et al. 2018). Natural and territorial waters up to 12 nautical Traditionally, Türkiye has addressed constructed wetlands can also help miles, and 3.38 percent of its offshore coastal risks through a strategy of filter and treat waterborne pollutants waters up to 200 nautical miles. The hard coastal protection structures, found in sewage, industrial effluent, report also notes that strengthening or gray infrastructure. In recent storm water runoff, or graywater the effectiveness of Türkiye’s MPA years, there has been worldwide treatment. There are 4,205 wetlands network is a priority as they have increasing attention on the role of in Türkiye, covering a total area of no on-site management units and a marine and coastal habitat protection 1,582,086 hectares, according to the very limited budget for patrolling and and restoration as a climate change wetland management information monitoring activities (Gomei et al. adaptation strategy and an innovative, system created within the scope 2019). economically sound, and effective of the National Wetland Inventory coastal zone management approach. Project. However, between 1910 to Including NbS such as marine and Coastal ecosystems deliver valuable 2014, the number of natural wetlands coastal ecosystems in Türkiye’s NDC protective benefits by providing decreased from 1,299 to 900, a loss could significantly contribute to a natural buffer against coastal of 21.2 percent (291,339 hectares) meeting its climate change adaptation waves and erosion, while generating of the original total natural wetland and mitigation goals. Despite multiple co-benefits for employment surface (Ataol and Onmuş 2021). growing international recognition of generation, public health, well-being, The rapid loss of wetlands highlights their potential, research has found and so on (table 6.1). With their the urgent need for increased that uptake of NbS remains limited high carbon sequestration and conservation and restoration efforts of globally (Browder et al. 2019). This storage capacity, undisturbed blue these ecosystems, as they represent also applies to Türkiye, which needs carbon ecosystems—that is, carbon a promising and cost-effective to further enhance the uptake of NbS sequestered and accumulated NbS strategy for Türkiye to help within existing climate adaptation in wetlands, saltmarshes, and address environmental and climate and mitigation frameworks. Enabling seagrasses—are particularly efficient change adaptation challenges while policy conditions are needed to in mitigating climate change. supporting a thriving blue economy. pave the way for action and finance, alongside demonstration projects on Healthy wetlands represent a cost- Marine protected areas (MPAs) how NbS can make adaptation and effective NbS strategy, yet they are represent an effective NbS approach to resilience more cost-effective. TABLE 6.1 >> Examples of NbS as a natural buffer in coastal areas Sandy beaches and dunes Maintaining robust beaches and dunes (e.g. with artificial replenishment) can help prevent waves and storm surges from breaching inland or developed areas. Vegetation on dunes can also help prevent erosion by trapping and stabilizing sand. Coral and oyster reefs systems Coral and oyster reef systems can help break waves and dissipate their energy before they reach the coastline. Coral reefs are estimated to reduce non-storm wave heights by an average of 70%. Seagrass Seagrass can help stabilize sediment and regulate water flow and currents that cause coastal erosion in shallow areas. Seagrass beds are estimated to reduce non-storm wave heights by an average of 36%. Coastal wetlands and salt marshes Coastal wetlands and salt marsh ecosystems can help increase water storage, prevent erosion by stabilizing sediment and decrease wave heights and velocity. Salt marshes have been shown to reduce non-storm wave heights by an average of 72%. Sources: Browder et al. 2019; Narayan et al. 2016 69 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 territory at high risk of land degradation and desertification (Dengizb and Uzunera 2020). Aware of this problem, Türkiye has implemented a series of erosion control, afforestation, and pasture rehabilitation works and developed monitoring and decision-support systems for land degradation and desertification. Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience Türkiye has advanced in creating favorable conditions for managing climate and disaster risks in its infrastructure, urban, agriculture, water, health, and education systems, and in its natural ecosystems. But these efforts are often fragmented. The challenges that lay ahead call for more cohesive and comprehensive strategic approaches and ongoing strengthening of institutional capacities, while scaling up, in a coordinated manner, the generation and implementation of resilience-building solutions to multiple hazards across sectors, geographies, and population groups. Based on the results of this assessment, the following recommendations can help the government of Türkiye strengthen A&R implementation to adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical public assets and services. Identify critical public assets and services. Scaling up efforts to finish mapping critical infrastructure and identify assets that are at risk from climate change and natural hazards across sectors will help the government prioritize retrofitting and other resilience-building investments. To accelerate this process, it can consider designing and implementing a national strategy to manage critical infrastructure and systematically assess risk and vulnerability in entire networks and critical asset inventories. It could also benefit from identifying and planning interventions to improve its logistics performance, particularly in terms of customs and border management, to reach the level of most OECD countries, enhance competitiveness, and enable fast emergency response and disaster recovery. Design and implement a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems and public assets. Although transitioning to resilient infrastructure in Türkiye may require higher investments than in most OECD countries, it can also lead to greater long-term savings. A resilient infrastructure master plan can guide the transition across sectors and assist in planning for and assigning appropriate budgets, including maintenance budgets. A master plan could integrate the design and implementation of an asset management system for systematically monitoring the condition, hazard exposure, and maintenance records of critical infrastructure. Integrating local hazards and criticality into construction standards and improving the enforcement of codes and standards in new public and private buildings and constructions would also strengthen the resilience of Türkiye’s infrastructure. Revise urban and land use plans to make them risk informed. Mainstreaming climate and disaster hazard risks into relevant legislation, scaling up efforts to identify urban areas at risk of multiple hazards, and strengthening the DRM knowledge and implementation capacity of registered urban planners will ensure plans are risk informed. Broader risk communication based on downscaled climate change scenarios can also help inform new public and private investments in urban areas, contribute to more resilient municipal planning, and increase community engagement in risk reduction. Considering financing is also important, as implementing risk reduction and climate resilience measures in urban and land use plans will require appropriate funding, particularly in the absence of PPPs. 70 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 Increase resilience of the agriculture sector and ensure food security. This is critical as the vulnerability of Türkiye’s food production systems is among the highest in the OECD. A comprehensive climate change adaptation strategy that includes CSA approaches, assigns clear roles and responsibilities, and guides adaptation in all agriculture subsectors can facilitate a resilience transformation in the sector. The strategy could help ensure that end-to-end climate services rapidly expand and EWS are fully operational to support risk-informed decisions by farmers and other value chain actors. Placing special emphasis on R&D efforts and funding will help identify and implement innovative adaptation solutions, and scaling up the use of insurance and other risk management mechanisms in collaboration with the private sector will help make them widely available and accessible for farmers. A thorough assessment of irrigation systems and a timebound and budgeted plan could also reduce inefficiencies. Increase the resilience of water infrastructure and water resource management. Developing an overarching WRM strategy that integrates climate change considerations and builds on and enables the implementation of existing subnational plans would facilitate this goal. Türkiye has a good WRM governance system and could benefit from promoting institutional participation and information sharing in the NWIS to strengthen the system and improve WRM decision making, including decisions related to water quality and allocation. Strengthening policy and regulatory instruments is also necessary to encourage improvements in water productivity and treating wastewater before discharge. Investments in multipurpose water storage, NbS, and other water-related solutions to climate risks in agriculture and other sectors can create multiple benefits, such as reducing water pollution from land-based sources. Increase the resilience of the health system. Building on the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic, Türkiye can improve its health system’s capacity to prepare for and cope with major emergencies. This involves ensuring that the sectoral response plan remains up to date, harnessing new technologies to manage reliable information for decision making and public awareness, and strengthening human resources. Increasing health expenditures and introducing policies to enhance surge demand capacity to the level of other OECD countries would help the country be better prepared to cope with more frequent disasters. Increase the resilience of the education system. This involves conducting risk assessments at most school buildings and implementing the necessary retrofitting works to protect students and enable all schools to be used as emergency shelters. To safeguard the country’s human capital from disaster-related disruptions in education, Türkiye can consider expanding and strengthening its digital education system to lay the foundation for future digital learning in and out of the classroom. This requires strengthening teachers’ ICT skills and establishing mechanisms to increase vulnerable populations’ access to home computers and the Internet. Türkiye could also consider further strengthening awareness on climate change and DRM in formal and non-formal education curricula to enhance people’s knowledge and ability to reduce risks from an early age. Increase the resilience of forests and other natural ecosystems. Designing and implementing sustainable ecosystem management strategies will help ensure ecosystems maintain their functions and continue to provide essential goods and services in the future. Türkiye could benefit from officially recognizing NbS as a cost-effective response to climate and development challenges and creating a national strategy to mainstream NbS in policies and strategic processes across sectors. Elaborating a blue economy strategy could be key, as this would benefit coastal and marine ecosystems, as well as coastal populations and economies. Integrating natural capital accounting and ecosystem service valuation into development planning and decision 71 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 making could also support national green and resilient growth objectives. Efforts to protect the country’s biodiversity and natural ecosystems from further depletion are also needed, including actions to reduce the drivers of environmental degradation and initiatives to increase the extent of protected areas to cover under-protected ecosystems and habitats in line with international conventions. TABLE 6.2 >> Recommendations for adapting urban and land use plans and protecting critical public assets and services Priority Links to other Fiscal Policy recommendation Priority Lead role Action priority actions implications 3.1 Map all public assets and identify critical Medium-term » MoEUCC 3.2 infrastructure to enable strategic risk » AFAD reduction investments » MoTI » MoAF » MoNE 3.2 Design, fund, and implement a Medium- term » MoIT 3.1 masterplan to progressively increase the » AFAD resilient infrastructure stock » MoEUCC 3.3 Identify high-risk areas for multiple Short-term » MoEUCC 2.2, 3.2, 3.4, 3.7, hazards to support urban, land use, » AFAD 3.8 emergency, and other planning processes » Local govts. 3.4 Design and implement a comprehensive Short to » MoAF 2.1, 2.3, 4.3, 6.3 adaptation strategy for the agriculture medium-term » MoEUCC sector to improve food security under climate change 3.5 Design, fund and implement an Short-term » MoEUCC 3.4, 6.3 overarching WRM strategy to ensure » MoAF water availability and quality under climate change 3.6 Strengthen the health care system and Medium to » MoH workforce to enhance surge capacity to long-term cope with higher demands due to climate change and during emergencies 3.7 Make education infrastructure climate Medium to » MoNE 1.2 and disaster proof and create the long-term enabling conditions for vulnerable populations to access online quality education in the aftermath of disasters 3.8 Recognize the value of terrestrial, coastal Medium to » MoEUCC 1.1, 3.8 and marine ecosystems and apply NbS long-term » MoAF for adaptation and economic growth » Local govts. » SBO » MoTF Notes: AFAD = Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency; MoAF = Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry; MoEUCC = Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change; MoH = Ministry of Health; MoNE = Ministry of National Education; MoTF = Ministry of Treasury and Finance; MoTI = Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure; SBO = Strategy and Budget Office. 72 C H A P T E R 6 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 3 7 C H A P T E R 7 > > A D A P T A T ION PRINCIPLE 4 lll Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural disasters “While effective risk mitigation can go a long way in reducing losses and damages, some natural shocks are too extreme and intense to be prevented. Governments must develop strategies to ensure that when disasters do occur, people and firms can cope without devastating long-term consequences, and can recover quickly.” —The Adaptation Principles PRIORITY ACTIONS lll 4.1 >> Save lives (and money) with hydromet, early warning, and emergency management systems lll 4.2 >> Provide all firms and households with risk management instruments lll 4.3 >> Develop the insurance sector, building on public-private partnerships lll 4.4 >> Build a social protection system and make it responsive to shocks lll 4.5 >> Help firms develop business continuity plans (BCPs) and financial preparedness lll 4.6 >> Be prepared to build back better after disasters, with contingency plans and financing This chapter reviews progress made in helping people and firms to effectively manage residual risks and natural disasters in Türkiye. The assessment includes 25 indicators, corresponding to six priority actions. Although the overall results indicate emerging progress toward achieving this adaptation principle, more efforts need to be made to provide firms and households with risk management instruments—the priority action that received the lowest score in the assessment. 73 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 lll Priority Action 4.1 >> Save lives (and money) with hydromet, early warning, and emergency management systems INDICATORS >> lll Daily weather forecasts (II) lll EP&R training (II) lll Impact-based forecasting (IBF) (III) lll Emergency service and shelter capacity (II) lll Early warning systems (EWS) for natural lll Effective coordination mechanism for crisis hazards (III) response (II) lll Early warning communication and lll Community emergency response plans (III) dissemination (II) lll Emergency preparedness and response (EP&R) management system (II) Türkiye has robust meteorological forecasts and EWS for natural hazards, operating and delivering key risk management information to save lives and avert damages. TSMS delivers short, medium, and long-term meteorological forecasts (from hourly to seasonal forecasts), conducts drought analyses, and runs a drought monitoring system. There are EWS for forest fires, environmental radiation, and flash floods (in some regions). The Meteorological Communication and Distribution System shares meteorological information across government agencies and the public receives warnings through appropriate channels, including SMS, telephone, radio, and a country-wide alarm system (MoEUCC 2018b; AFAD 2019; MoD 2019). The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System, comprising 10 real-time strong-motion stations along the coast and more than 100 strong-motion stations inside buildings, reports tremors to the Turkish seismological agency for the immediate activation of established protocols when required. These end-to-end climate services, including EWS, strengthen risk management and adaptation decisions in the country, enabling users to assess upcoming changes, adjust their activities to short and mid-term weather conditions, and respond to imminent shocks. IBF, currently unavailable in Türkiye, could further improve these systems by incorporating risk assessments and generating information on specific impacts to be expected from hazardous events for better emergency preparedness and response. Türkiye has an effective nationwide EP&R management system, but needs to further strengthen the capacity of its emergency services to perform well under increasingly challenging disaster conditions. It has built a comprehensive legal, regulatory, strategic, and planning framework for DRM. Roles, responsibilities, and coordination mandates are clearly defined, with the 2015 National Disaster Response Plan outlining principles for preparedness, response, and recovery among agencies and at different levels of government. In general, the capacity of emergency services has increased since the 1999 Marmara earthquake. There are now 26 regional and 55 provincial logistical centers with emergency stocks and in 2019, 12,407 personnel were mobilized to respond to emergencies (AFAD 2020). But recent forest fires and the challenging emergency response environment created by the COVID-19 pandemic have shown that these resources may be insufficient. This calls for detailed EP&R needs assessments that integrate the rising frequency and intensity of climate and disaster events. AFAD’s Disaster and Emergency Training Center also need to expand its services to ensure the country’s DRM personnel have the skills they need to effectively perform under rapidly changing conditions. Türkiye must also develop and implement community response plans to strengthen local-level emergency preparedness. 74 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 lll Priority Action 4.2 >> Provide all firms and households with risk management instruments INDICATORS >> lll National strategy for managing residual lll Financial instruments uptake to cope with climate and disaster risks (III) shocks (II) Türkiye has a range of DRM instruments, but household resilience to shocks is constrained by the absence of a national strategy for residual risk management and low social protection coverage. Although the government has achieved a substantial penetration of catastrophe insurance, it has not established residual risk targets. And without these, households and firms have only circumstantial information on the buffers they need to cope with and rebuild after climate extremes and other disasters. In Türkiye, 53.7 percent of households have compulsory earthquake insurance, which also covers fires, explosions, landslides, and tsunami risk caused by earthquakes.44 However, the scheme’s payouts do not always cover the full losses, and uptake of insurance against other hazards is low. A nationwide survey shows that only 21 percent of more than 3,000 respondents had taken additional disaster insurance beyond earthquakes (AFAD 2020). With low social protection coverage and remittances representing only 0.1 percent of GDP in 2019 (lower than the OECD average of 0.9 percent),45 the AFAD survey indicates that most of the population relies on their own resources to withstand and recover from shocks caused by non-seismic hazards. This has major implications for the resilience of poor households, whose assets and well-being are eroded by the costs of increasingly frequent climate events. lll Priority Action 4.3 >> Develop the insurance sector, building on public-private partnerships INDICATORS >> lll Non-life insurance penetration (I) lll Building stock insurance (II) lll Private sector disaster risk insurance (III) Türkiye has created effective insurance schemes based on public-private joint initiatives to support recovery efforts in the aftermath of disasters, which can serve as good practice examples for many other countries. These include TARSIM, created in 2005 to cover an expanding scope of multiple risks and products for agricultural activities, and the Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP), established in 1999 as a compulsory earthquake insurance scheme for dwellings in municipal areas. TCIP offers protection at affordable premiums up to a maximum compensation limit that is reviewed annually. Beyond this limit, households can buy additional property insurance coverage from non-life insurance companies. TCIP has become an example for many developing countries as a model of a successful collaboration between domestic insurance providers and the government to reach people and firms with compulsory earthquake insurance (OECD 2015). Domestic disaster insurance markets are effective mechanisms for extending disaster insurance coverage across households and businesses but have not yet attracted the demand required to 44  https://dask.gov.tr/en/interactive-earthquake-map (accessed on July 8, 2022). 45  World Development Indicators, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. 75 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 sufficiently absorb disaster losses across all economic sectors and segments of society. The 11th NDP establishes targets to extend the TCIP model to cover all hazards as a way to leverage private sector capital. New products can be developed to protect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) against business interruption. The need for such products was well evidenced by the COVID-19 crisis. The 11th NDP’s insurance expansion targets are important in view of the magnitude of potential future climate-related losses; 86 percent of such losses in Türkiye between 1980 and 2019 were uninsured, with resulting fiscal impacts on public finances (OECD 2019a). However, the viability of such products must be further explored and tested. Their implementation is likely to take time to generate widespread results as in general, developing markets for new insurance products, including compulsory insurance, faces low pick-up rates even when insurance premiums are subsidized (Hallegatte et FIGURE 7.1 > > al. 2020). Non-life insurance penetration Non-life insurance penetration (2008–17 average) in Türkiye (including disaster insurance 5.0 Non-life insurance penetration (% of GDP) policies) reached 0.91 percent of GDP between 4.5 2008 and 2017, which is well below the OECD 4.0 average of 1.83 percent (figure 7.1). Of the 3.5 17.5 million disaster policies issued by the 3.0 32 insurance companies working in the 2.5 sector in 2019, 9.5 million were compulsory 2.0 earthquake insurances and 8 million were 1.5 for non-seismic natural disasters. However, 1.0 over 60 percent of the building stock remains 0.5 uninsured against earthquakes, posing risks 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 to 6.7 million people and potential material GDP per capita (current US$) losses in the range of US$90–120 billion  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average in the event of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake Source: IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard (Swiss Re 2018). lll Priority Action 4.4 >> Build a social protection system and make it responsive to shocks INDICATORS >> lll Social registry coverage and targeting (I) lll Multiple social protection delivery mechanisms (III) lll Interoperable social protection and DRM lll Adaptive social protection (II) information systems (III) Türkiye has made progress in building a robust social protection system that uses multiple channels to transfer resources to vulnerable households during crises, but interoperability with DRM information systems can be improved. People and households in need of social protection programs are effectively targeted through ISAS, an application-based system that, in 2022, offered 120 different web services and stored data of 18.6 million households and 59.1 million people (74 percent of the population). ISAS links applicants’ data to the databases of 28 government agencies to determine their eligibility for social protection programs. The system’s interoperability also allows access to home address and bank account information, enabling the rapid and targeted delivery of financial, cash and in-kind social protection support, which is critical for reducing well-being losses in eligible households during crises. However, ISAS is not 76 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 yet interoperable with AFAD’s systems. The COVID-19 pandemic represented the first attempt at informing DRM actions with social protection data, but experienced data and operational constraints as vulnerable populations not registered in ISAS could not receive the support they needed. Although Türkiye has made progress in creating adaptive social protection systems (box 7.1), efforts are still needed to improve beneficiary identification and enrollment, set up a contingent plan to scale up social protection during emergencies, and implement skills-building interventions to enhance beneficiaries’ income-generation opportunities during the recovery phase (Smith and Bowen 2022). BOX 7.1 >> Since 2003, Türkiye has made In 2022, it also initiated or enhanced considerable progress toward various programs supporting Towards adaptive establishing a strong social vulnerable populations were social protection protection system, making social assistance a consistent initiated or enhanced, including the Natural Gas Consumption systems in Türkiye priority. Based on the analysis of Support Program, the Preschool vulnerability criteria, the system Support Program, the Electricity supports citizens in need through Consumption Program for Chronic its 49 social assistance programs Patients, and the Family Support or schemes, including project Program, which will assist people support programs, which focus who do not qualify for social on supporting access to basic assistance during times of duress. income, housing, food, education, and health (the most widespread of Despite some challenges, Türkiye’s which is for paying universal health social protection system has insurance premiums). There are 16 proven to be responsive to shocks. long-term cash transfer programs ISAS has become an example for households (three for foreigners, of how technological progress including Syrian refugees) and can enhance the efficiency and most other programs use one- effectiveness of social protection time transfers for households to implementation and delivery mitigate emerging risks. Although mechanisms, integrating all the spending on social assistance in steps related to managing social Türkiye (1.4 percent of GDP) is lower assistance—including application, than the average in low-income eligibility, delivery, and auditing— countries (1.5 percent of GDP), into one easily accessible online the country stands out for its high portal. Through ISAS, and with level of targeting resources to poor international support, Türkiye and highly vulnerable households, rapidly scaled social protection to with emphasis on selected groups respond to the Syrian refugee influx, and categories. Income support resulting in their enrollment in transfers to direct beneficiaries social assistance and employment is the most common modality of services (Bowen et al. 2020). ISAS support. This includes, among also enabled the implementation others, conditional cash transfers of the Pandemic Social Support to promote children’s access to Program, delivering almost TL 11 education and health; cash transfers billion of assistance to 7.2 million to widows, older persons, persons individual households since with disabilities, and home-based the beginning of the COVID-19 caretakers of older persons and pandemic (Presidency of the persons with disabilities; and in-kind Republic of Türkiye 2022). Through transfers of food (mainly in the ISAS and its well-established form of soup kitchens) and coal to institutional arrangements and vulnerable households. partnerships for the rapid and flexible implementation of social In 2019, the government announced assistance programs, Türkiye is new social assistance programs, well poised to offer vulnerable including universal birth support, populations the safety nets they electricity bill support for the poor, need when affected by large and transfers for families with shocks, including those caused by multiple births (World Bank 2021e). climate extremes and change. 77 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 lll Priority Action 4.5 >> Help firms develop business continuity plans and financial preparedness INDICATORS >> lll Firms with business continuity plans (II) lll Generator ownership (I) lll Access to finance for firms (I) lll Revenue lost due to outages (I) Firms in Türkiye are starting to draw up BCPs as they are increasingly needed to guarantee the efficient maintenance of business operations during disruptions caused by climate extremes and other external shocks. BCPs are an important risk reduction and resilience-building instrument that enables firms to understand the way threats may affect every aspect of their operations and plan risk avoidance or mitigation measures well before a hazard strikes. A survey conducted with 780 firms at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 found that 34 percent of respondents, mainly SMEs, had neither a BCP nor a contingency plan in place (figures 7.2 and 7.3) and only 39 percent were prepared for telecommuting, having the required infrastructure and digital means in place (Business for Goals 2020). But firms in Türkiye are aware of the costs of more common disruptions and proactively apply risk management approaches to avoid losses. For example, in 2019, 19 percent of Turkish firms owned a power generator, compared with the OECD average of 16.4 percent (figure 7.4). They also experience higher losses due to power outages than other OECD countries, losing 1.8 percent of yearly sales, compared with the OECD average of 0.95 percent (World Bank 2019a). To start their adaptation process, businesses—particularly small firms—can start a BCPs by systematically establishing procedures to deal with hazards they are familiar with, and plan to reduce the risks of other hazards that may cause more frequent disruptions in the future. To support firms, AFAD developed the Guidelines on Preparation and Implementation of Business Continuity Plans for Organized Industrial Zones (OIZs), which aim at supporting OIZs to rapidly adapt to disruptions caused by any emergency (including disasters) while maintaining business operations and product/service delivery while also protecting people, assets, and overall reputation. The guidelines focus on area-based BCPs but offer options for individual businesses to adapt them to a firm or asset level. AFAD tested the guidelines with OIZs in Hatay (İskenderun) and Kocaeli Provinces and is promoting the elaboration of BCPs for all the country’s OIZs as part of its goal to achieve disaster-resilient industrial organizations and a strong, resilient domestic economy. FIGURE 7.2 >> FIGURE 7.3 > > Firms in Türkiye with a BCP or emergency plan (2020) Firms in Türkiye with a BCP or emergency plan, by number of employees (2020) 100 Only emergency plan 16% 90 Percentage of firms (%) 80 70 Only BCP 21% 61% 60 50 44% 41% 36% 38% 42% 40 35% 31% BCPs and emergency plans 30% 30 21% 23% 19% 20 10 8% None 34% 0 1-9 10-49 50-249 250 and above 0 20 40 60 80 100 Number of employees Percentage of firms (%)  BCPs and emergency plans  None  Only one exists Source: Business for Goals 2020 Source: Business for Goals 2020 78 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 Financial preparedness against climate and disaster risks requires access to financial resources and instruments, which are often inaccessible to Turkish firms. Almost 30 percent of firms in Türkiye identify access to finance as the biggest obstacle to their business, compared with the OECD average of 9 percent (figure 7.5). Access to finance is a problem across all firm sizes and is considered a bigger issue than tax rates. Barriers to scaling up finance for adaptation are high in Türkiye and related to the fundamental issue that most planning and investment decisions do not internalize potential climate change impacts, the perception that adaptation actions are complex and expensive, and the disconnect between the beneficiaries of the actions on the one hand, and the parties that bear the cost on the other (World Bank 2021f). FIGURE 7.4 >> FIGURE 7.5 > > Firms in Türkiye that own a power generator Firms where financial issues are the major constraint to BCP development (2021) 70 35 60 30 50 25 Share of firms (%) Share of firms (%) 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0 0 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita (current US$)  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average  Türkiye  Other OECD countries  OECD average Source: World Bank 2019a Source: World Bank 2021f lll Priority Action 4.6 >> Be prepared to build back better after disasters, with contingency plans and financing INDICATORS >> lll Resilient recovery and reconstruction lll Reconstruction time (II) principles and guidelines (III) lll Emergency procurement planning and procedures (III) Türkiye is relatively well prepared to build back better in the aftermath of disasters but needs to strengthen resilient recovery procedures and budgets. Disaster recovery also represents an opportunity to reduce vulnerability and build resilience to future shocks, especially those that are expected to become more frequent under climate change. But this requires being prepared because reconstruction efforts need to be conducted rapidly to avoid further losses and suffering among the affected population. Preparations include having resilient recovery and reconstruction requirements and standards (including for land-use and zoning) and plans ready for implementation, including preapproved contracts with qualified contractors for recovery operations. Türkiye acknowledges the need for resilient recovery planning in its 11th NDP, has recently developed post-disaster guidelines for development agencies to strengthen 79 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 its recovery readiness framework, and has a better record in reconstruction time after major disasters compared with other countries in the region. While the reconstruction of 75 percent of the assets destroyed in the aftermath of a 200-year earthquake would take approximately two years in Türkiye, it would take 2.3 years in Bulgaria, 2.8 years in Greece, 4.9 years in Croatia, 5.5 years in Armenia, 8 years in Georgia and 8.75 years in Albania (World Bank 2021c). But the country still needs to advance further in preparing resilient recovery and reconstruction principles and guidelines, elaborating guidance documents for emergency procurement procedures, and allocating investment budgets for resilient recovery. Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience Through effective climate services (weather forecasting and EWS), a good EP&R management system and multiple social protection delivery mechanisms, Türkiye has strengthened the capacity of its people and firms to prepare for and cope with climate and other shocks. To further develop this capacity and accelerate A&R implementation, the following recommendations can help the government of Türkiye further strengthen its efforts to ensure people and firms can manage residual risks and natural disasters. Save lives (and money) with hydromet, early warning, and emergency management systems. The government can develop IBF systems that can enhance the quality and effectiveness of climate services by incorporating risk assessments and generating information on specific impacts to be expected from hazardous events for better emergency preparedness and response, reduce the digital divide to enable universal access to EWS, and reinforce the capacity of emergency services to deal with increasingly complex hazard situations. Acting on the recommendations of detailed EP&R needs assessments by hazard type can help build this capacity, while strengthening AFAD’s Disaster and Emergency Training Center will ensure it effectively updates and improves individual emergency response personnel’s skills through ongoing training. Designing and implementing community response plans can also help strengthen local-level emergency preparedness. Provide all firms and households with risk management instruments and further develop the insurance sector, building on public-private joint initiatives. The government can do this by promoting greater insurance coverage against climate-related risks and assessing alternative financing mechanisms—such as compensation. This includes conducting a feasibility study for developing insurance products against other perils and for different target beneficiaries to protect people, firms, and their assets (including building stock), and public finances from more frequent climate extremes and disasters. Formulate a national strategy for managing residual climate and disaster risks. Once it has established residual risk targets, the government could formulate a national strategy and promote measures to support the uptake of insurance and increase access to other financial mechanisms to enable households and the private sector to cope with hazard impacts that exceed residual risk targets. Strengthen social protection systems and make them responsive to shocks. Improving beneficiary identification and enrollment in the social protection registry and enhancing its interoperability with DRM systems are the first steps toward creating an adaptive social protection system. Türkiye could also consider setting up a contingency plan to scale up social protection during emergencies. 80 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 Help firms develop BCPs and financial preparedness. Creating incentives and supporting the elaboration of BCPs, particularly among SMEs, would help reduce damages and losses during disruptions caused by climate and other natural hazards. Türkiye can also design and implement interventions to reduce the barriers that limit firms’ access to adaptation finance. Be prepared to build back better after disasters, with contingency plans and financing. To do this, the government can prepare resilient recovery and reconstruction principles and guidelines, elaborate guidance documents for emergency procurement procedures, allocate investment budgets for resilient recovery, and incorporate enhanced standards in recovery, reconstruction, and resettlement plans to further enhance the resilience of post-disaster efforts. TABLE 7.1 >> Recommendations for helping firms and people manage residual risks and natural disasters Priority Links to other Fiscal Policy recommendation Priority Lead role Action priority actions implications 4.1 Develop IBF systems to strengthen the Medium-term » MoEUCC 3.4 quality and effectiveness of existing climate services 4.1 Strengthen emergency response staff Short-term » AFAD capacity to improve the effectiveness of » Line interventions under increasingly complex ministries emergency situations » Local govts. 4.2 Formulate a national strategy for Short to » AFAD 2.1, 2.2, 3.2, 3.3 managing residual risks once residual risk medium-term » MoEUCC targets have been established » MoIT 4.3 Promote a greater insurance coverage Medium to » MoTF 3.4, 4.2 and diversify available risk financing long-term » MoIT instruments against climate-related risks » AFAD for households and firms and further promote private capital mobilization through risk transfer 4.4 Advance in the establishment of adaptive Medium to » MoLSS 1.2, 4.3 social protection systems by expanding long-term » MoFSS beneficiary identification and enrolment » MoTF in ISAS, ensuring its interoperability » AFAD with DRM systems and setting up a contingency plan to scale up social assistance during emergencies 4.5 Create incentives for firms to elaborate Medium-term » MoIT and implement BCPs to reduce and avoid » MoTF losses during disruptions caused by » AFAD hazardous events 4.6 Prepare procedures for building back Medium to » AFAD better after disasters to reduce future long-term » MoTF vulnerability and speed up recovery time » SBO Notes: AFAD = Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency; MoEUCC = Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change; MoFSS = Ministry of Family and Social Services; MoIT = Ministry of Industry and Technology; MoLSS = Ministry of Labor and Social Security; MoT = Ministry of Trade; MoTF = Ministry of Treasury and Finance; SBO = Strategy and Budget Office. 81 C H A P T E R 7 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 4 8 C H A P T E R 8 > > A D A P T A T ION PRINCIPLE 5 lll Manage financial and macrofiscal issues “The impact of climate change on the economy will affect activity and tax revenues, and strong impacts on major sectors (especially exporting ones) can affect a country’s trade balance and capital flows. The combination of these factors may result in new risks for macroeconomic stability, public finances and debt sustainability, and the broader financial sector. Governments will need to manage these risks, considering the many channels involved. However, the macro-level impacts of climate change are extremely uncertain, and all quantified assessments should be considered as a partial approximation and used in a way that considers both this uncertainty and the possibility of surprises.” —The Adaptation Principles PRIORITY ACTIONS lll 5.1 >> Include contingent liabilities from natural disasters and environmental shocks in the planning and budgeting process lll 5.2 >> Develop a financial strategy to manage contingent liabilities, combining multiple instruments lll 5.3 >> Anticipate and plan for long-term macroeconomic impacts lll 5.4 >> Communicate and mitigate the disaster and climate risk exposure of the financial sector This chapter reviews progress made in managing financial and macrofiscal impacts of climate change and disasters in Türkiye. The assessment includes 14 indicators, corresponding to four priority actions. The overall results indicate nascent progress toward achieving this adaptation principle, as half of the priority actions assessed are at an early stage of development. 82 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 lll Priority Action 5.1 >> Include contingent liabilities from natural disasters and environmental shocks in the planning and budgeting process INDICATORS >> lll Climate and disaster risks are assessed and lll Institutional arrangements for public financial considered in fiscal policies (II) management during emergencies (II) lll Contingent liabilities are quantified and included in budget documents (II) Climate change and disasters pose major risks and contingent liabilities to public finances, but these have not been comprehensively assessed and appropriately included in national budgets in Türkiye. Through impacts on people, firms, public assets, and services, climate change and disasters have the potential to cause systemic damage to well-being and the national fiscal space. More frequent extreme events will force an increase in emergency relief and recovery spending, and cause a decrease in tax revenues. Public finances will also suffer from the progressive need to respond to slow climate change effects, such as those related to sea level rise and long-term health and labor productivity changes. While effective adaptation strategies can help reduce some of these risks, addressing the related contingent liabilities in public budgets ex ante is fundamental to build fiscal resilience (Bellon and Massetti 2022; Aligishiev et al. 2022). Türkiye has neither comprehensively assessed the fiscal risks of climate change and disasters across sectors nor calculated or included the associated contingent liabilities in national budgets, although some estimates exist to support this process. For example, the World Bank calculated the explicit contingent liability of public asset losses from climate events to be in the order of US$140 million annually (World Bank 2021d). Conducting similar with the best information available for key sectors—such as agriculture, water, transport, and other critical infrastructure—and under several climate change scenarios can enable Türkiye to plan and implement the necessary measures to reduce the risks of climate and disaster risks on the country’s public finances. Institutional arrangements for public financial management during emergencies are in place but would benefit from better coordination. Regulations related to Emergency and Disaster Management issued in 2009 (Official Gazette: 27261) establish a presidential budget appropriation procedure for disaster and emergency management; and the Disaster and Emergency Expenditures Legislation (2011) sets protocols for the transfer and management of disaster and emergency budget appropriation, and to track disaster relief expenditures. But better coordination between the MoTF, SBO, AFAD, and local administrations could improve the effectiveness of emergency actions and finance. lll Priority Action 5.2 >> Develop a financial strategy to manage contingent liabilities, combining multiple instruments INDICATORS >> lll National climate and disaster risk financing lll Emergency budget allocation (II) (DRF) strategy (III) lll Use of climate and disaster risk financial lll Process to manage ex-post financial instruments (III) assistance inflow (II) 83 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 Türkiye does not yet have a comprehensive national DRF strategy, although several financing instruments are available for response and reconstruction after disasters. A DRF strategy can help countries prepare for the timely mobilizing of sufficient funding in the aftermath of disasters, define risk financing priorities, and elaborate on a risk-layering approach which includes combining multiple financing instruments to cost-effectively cover government contingent liabilities. It can also define effective delivery channels for disaster funding to reach the people and regions most affected in a timely manner. Türkiye has a range of financial instruments available for dealing with disasters, including: a 2 percent contingency reserve in the annual budget; the Disaster Reserve Fund under the MoTF; AFAD’s budget; and insurance mechanisms. These include general mechanisms, such as the TCIP, which covers various types of hazards, and sector-specific ones, such as TARSIM for agriculture. The 2021 Central Management Budget Law also enables emergency budget reallocation in disaster situations, and Türkiye has used international financing for emergency response, recovery, and reconstruction in the past (World Bank 2021d). Together, these instruments provide a strong basis for the country to cope with and bounce back from disasters, but their limitations should be assessed to improve their effectiveness. This includes exploring cost-effectiveness in using budget reallocations (in terms of their speed, transparency and cost) versus, for example, borrowing; and exploring the sufficiency of funding in disaster reserve funds and mechanisms available to the government for covering its liabilities to the TCIP in case of a major disaster. Financial preparedness for disasters can help accelerate disaster recovery, prevent people from falling into poverty, ensure the delivery of critical services, and safeguard the economy. As a country prone to natural disasters, Türkiye needs to ensure it has sufficient financing instruments in place to cost-effectively cover all major risks and associated liabilities, and to plan ahead in view of likely increasing post-disaster funding needs under climate change. It has been estimated that financial instruments combined with contingent planning can increase the speed of reconstruction and reduce consumption losses by almost 50 percent in the aftermath of a natural disaster that destroys 5 percent of assets in the country (box 8.1). lll Priority Action 5.3 >> Anticipate and plan for long-term macroeconomic impacts INDICATORS >> lll Proportion of tax revenues from high- lll Debt sustainability or financial sector vulnerability sectors (II) assessment program considers climate and disaster impacts (II) lll Long-term plan to diversify tax revenues (II) Government revenues in Türkiye are at significant risk of climate change due to their high dependence on a narrow range of sectors that are vulnerable to climatic impacts. Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, infrastructure, and related services are among the most important productive sectors in terms of employment and tax contribution. But they are also highly exposed to climate impacts. While publicly available disaggregated data on tax revenue sector classification are not available (that is, 2- or 3-digit classification), when using the aggregated level, the proportion of tax revenue at risk from climate and disaster risks can be significant. And if considering indirect impacts on labor productivity and supply chain disruptions, actual 84 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 exposure could be even larger (World Bank 2021d). In its latest economic reform package, Türkiye has outlined a long-term plan to diversify its economy, broaden its tax base and rates, and increase tax revenue (MoTF and Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye 2022). But better integration of climate change and disaster risk considerations could strengthen tax reform processes and contribute to better hedging natural hazard risks on public finances. Debt sustainability and financial sector assessments that consider climate impacts have not been conducted yet; but these are critical for understanding the potential macroeconomic implications of climate change and strengthening macrofiscal preparedness (World Bank 2021d). For example, increasing debt to cover the incremental costs of climate change can pose risks on credit scores, interest rates, and foreign investment. These assessments can be conducted under various climate change scenarios and would give decision makers the information they need to plan and implement appropriate policy, regulatory, and strategic actions to minimize the potential long-term impacts of climate change and disasters on macroeconomic variables, including GDP, debt levels, and trade balance. lll Priority Action 5.4 >> Communicate and mitigate the disaster and climate risk exposure of the financial sector INDICATORS >> lll Integration of climate and disaster risks into lll Quantified estimates of exposure to natural business processes by banks, insurers, and hazards required for banks, insurers, and large investors (II) large investors (II) lll Specific disaster and climate risk lll Climate and disaster risk stress tests for requirements in bank, insurer, and large banks, insurers, and large investors (II) investor regulations (II) Despite the lack of specific regulatory requirements for banks, insurers, and large investors to address and report climate and disaster risks, Türkiye’s banking system is taking steps toward improving its disclosure of climate and environmental sustainability and management. National regulatory and supervisory bodies have not yet carried out an initial assessment of the financial and banking sector’s exposure to the risks posed by climate change and natural hazards, and there are no regulations to ensure that the financial firms identify, quantify, and disclose these risks in their investment portfolios and adequately manage vulnerabilities. But progress is emerging in these areas: the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency’s (BRSA) Sustainable Banking Strategic Plan emphasizes regulatory gaps and requirements; the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has established a Green Finance Department to address climate- related financial risks; and the government is updating its accounting framework to align with the International Financial Reporting Standards, which are being updated to include sustainability disclosure standards. There is also emerging progress at private sector level. As of 2018, 21 of the 53 members of the Banks Association of Türkiye—which own 86 percent of total assets in the Turkish banking sector—have developed a sustainability or environmental and social policy document. Of these, 14 (80 percent of the sector) have sustainability reporting practices, and 15 (62 percent) have environmental and social risk management systems in place. Many are developing green financial products, and one, the Industrial Development Bank of Türkiye (TSKB, in Turkish acronym), has elaborated a climate risk report (World Bank 2021f), in which it identifies and categorizes the direct and indirect risks of climate hazards to its operations and details a plan to address physical and transition risks from climate change (TSKB 2021), setting good adaptation planning practice to be mainstreamed across Türkiye’s financial sector. 85 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 Stress tests enable financial institutions to assess the resilience of their portfolios to climate change, but they are not mandatory and have not been conducted in Türkiye. This is partly due to the lack of information and guidance provided by regulatory authorities and (prudential and capital market) supervisors for integrating climate risk considerations in their operational frameworks, limiting their ability to regulate and monitor the adequate implementation of climate risk assessments, including stress testing (World Bank 2021f). This is a critical gap, as the Turkish banks’ loan portfolios are geographically concentrated and exposed to significant physical risks, including climate risks. For example, 45 percent of bank loans (US$205.5 billion as of 2021 Q3) are concentrated in the Istanbul, Tekirdag, and Kocaeli, areas, which have elevated drought and seismic risks, and in 2021, massive forest fires hit Antalya and Muğla, where most tourism sector loans are concentrated (World Bank Group 2022). Some banks, such as TSKB, are independently considering implementing stress testing and scenario analysis of their portfolios to inform their strategic planning, implement vulnerability reduction measures, and strengthen their operations’ long-term resilience to climate change and other natural hazards (TSKB 2021). Garanti BBVA has analyzed the vulnerability of its renewable energy portfolio to drought, floods and other extreme weather events, and implemented a climate stress test methodology to measure compliance with the Paris Agreement of carbon-intensive sectors in its loan portfolio. From a systemic perspective, however, such good practices should be integrated in specific requirements to ensure regulatory compliance and coherence for banks, following clear guidance by financial regulators for mainstreaming climate and disaster risks. BOX 8.1 >> DEEP DIVE 5 Macrofiscal and monetary policies for adaptation and resilience Türkiye is vulnerable to natural infrastructure. Climate change road destruction. In addition to disasters that can generate implies that Türkiye is likely to face the complementarity between substantial damages to public more frequent floods, with losses infrastructure and other elements, and private sector infrastructure to agriculture and infrastructure. or network effects, redirecting capital. Earthquakes and floods are Estimates from the Global investments to rebuilding and other the predominant natural disasters, Assessment Report on Disaster indirect economic responses can and earthquakes the most Risk Reduction show that damage amplify initial asset damage. destructive. For example, floods from future floods may cost up to in 1998 were responsible for over US$1.5 billion for a 1-in- 20-year The welfare impacts of disasters US$1 billion in damages, while event and over US$12.5 billion for increase more rapidly with direct an earthquake in 1999 caused a 1-in-1,500-year event (UNISDR asset losses. Macroeconomic close to US$30 billion in damages 2015a). Alternative estimates using responses can reduce the welfare (GFDRR 2016). EM-DAT dataa suggest that a 1-in- impacts (proxied by discounted 250-year flood could cost Türkiye consumption loss) of minor Türkiye will continue to be US$140 billion in 2080. disasters, but they can also magnify vulnerable to natural disasters. them when direct asset losses It sits on one of the world’s most Direct asset losses are only part exceed the economy’s absorptive active seismic regions, and the of the damage, as destroyed capacity. The welfare response population faces material risks infrastructure capital makes the depends on: the pre-existing and large potential physical asset remaining non-infrastructure economic situation (fiscal space damage. Global Earthquake Model capital less productive, reducing and financial constraints), the modeling (Rao et al. 2022) shows total capital stock and productivity. economy’s ability to reallocate that, even in an optimistic scenario Examples include the inoperability resources to reconstruction where infrastructure is significantly of machinery in a warehouse (worker and machinery supply are retrofitted to the latest standards, when external infrastructure is limited by location and number), damage can still exceed 2.5 damaged, or economic losses and the monetary policy response percent of the capital value of due to transportation delays from to uncertainty. a www.emdat.be. 86 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 BOX 8.1 >> DEEP DIVE 5 CONTINUE D Appropriate macrofiscal and welfare losses exceed direct losses, to 20 percent of destroyed assets monetary policies offer cost- but losses are greater for a price- each year can result in welfare effective opportunities to mitigate responsive MP than a suspended losses that are less than the direct the welfare impacts of major response. In this simulation, damages. However, the welfare disasters. Summarized below, MP should still respond to price costs exceed the direct damage Hallegatte et al. (2022) use the increases, but in a suspended once the 20 percent capacity limit World Bank Macrostructural fashion when the indirect effects is reached. For severely constrained Model (MFMod) for Türkiye of inflation—such as wage or cost rebuilding responses—such as to simulate the effects of two price adjustments—materialize and an inability to mobilize resources policies: monetary policy (MP) not when the shock occurs. This for rebuilding due to financial suspension and increased resource suspension makes the economy constraints or a small construction mobilization. more resilient to the economic sector—welfare losses can be consequences of a natural disaster about twice the direct losses. Figure 8.1 compares the welfare shock because the threshold Although the quantitative values losses for associated direct losses beyond which consumption losses should be read with caution, this due to natural disasters under two exceed asset losses increases from simulation shows that being able policy conditions: suspended and 6 to about 11 percent. to mobilize resources quickly unsuspended. Natural disasters for reconstruction increases the tend to reduce the supply of goods Figure 8.2 compares welfare economy’s resilience to the extent and services in an economy, often losses with the ability to rebuild that the threshold beyond which leading to higher prices. In both damaged capital. For small direct consumption losses exceed asset cases (active and lagged MP), damages, the ability to rebuild up losses increases. FIGURE 8.1 >> FIGURE 8.2 > > Direct losses from natural disasters against net present Direct losses from a natural disaster against NPV value consumption losses in Türkiye consumption losses in Türkiye 70 70 60 60 NPV consumption losses (%) NPV consumption losses (%) 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -5 5 15 25 35 -5 5 15 25 35 Direct losses (% GDP) Direct losses (% GDP) Without MP suspension With MP suspension 5% reconstruction 20% reconstruction Source: Hallegatte et al. 2022 Source: Business for Goals 2020 Notes: NPV = net present value. The scenario with MP suspension represents Notes: 5 and 20% represent the percentage of investment resources that a situation in which monetary authorities do not react to the economic the government can divert to reconstruction instead of investing in new consequences of a natural disaster shock in the first year. The gray dotted capital stock. The gray dotted line represents the 45-degree line. A curve line represents the 45-degree line. A curve below the line means that the below the 45-degree line means that the economy can absorb the shock, economy can absorb the shock, relying on its ability to borrow and reallocate relying on its ability to borrow and reallocate resources, so that losses in final resources, so that losses in final consumption are simply equal to the consumption are simply equal to the replacement cost of lost capital. replacement cost of lost capital. 87 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience Climate change and natural hazards pose significant risks to fiscal sustainability as well as public and private financial management in Türkiye. Addressing those risks through policy and regulatory interventions at various levels is essential for the sustainability of public finances and for the financial sector to build resilience to sudden disaster impacts and incremental climate change costs. Based on the results of this assessment, the following recommendations can help the government of Türkiye further strengthen the management of financial and macrofiscal issues related to climate and disaster risks. Include contingent liabilities from natural disasters and environmental shocks in the planning and budgeting process. Conducting a comprehensive and thorough assessment, based on science and across sectors, of the financial risks of climate change and disasters can inform public and private financial institutions of the potential impacts and repercussions, including risk to public assets and the fiscal space, and thus enable appropriate financial planning and budgeting. Strengthening the coordination between central ministries and local administrations can also improve the effectiveness of emergency response and finance. Develop a financial strategy to manage contingent liabilities, combining multiple instruments. Reviewing existing financing instruments for disasters in Türkiye—including their internal transfer and delivery channels—can improve response and recovery effectiveness and efficiency in future disaster events. The review should focus on ensuring that the country has and is ready to use a wide range of financial instruments to cover identified and unforeseen contingent liabilities, including the Contingency Emergency Response Components mechanism for World Bank-financed projects, to protect fiscal balances against sudden and long-term climate change and disaster impacts. Reviewing the cost-effectiveness and delivery of existing emergency budget reallocation systems and other financial inflows, and ensuring that emergency and social protection spending needs are sufficiently covered by available financial instruments and integrated ex-ante in national budgets, can also help Türkiye prepare for more frequent climate hazard impacts. Anticipate and plan for long-term macroeconomic impacts. Collecting and analyzing disaggregated tax revenue data by sector will allow Türkiye to better estimate the proportion of tax revenues at high risk of climate and natural hazard impacts. Diversifying the tax base away from vulnerable sectors would provide more reliable revenue, while integrating climate change and disaster considerations in subsequent tax reforms would ensure planned interventions are resilient to climate change and disasters. Türkiye could also consider carrying out a public finance review to assess potential climate change and disaster implications on public debt levels to better plan debt sustainability measures, and building the capacity of regulatory authorities to include climate and disaster risks into their operational frameworks. Communicate and mitigate the disaster and climate risk exposure of the financial sector. Issuing and enforcing regulations for financial institutions would enable them to identify, test, manage, and report climate and disaster risks in their investment portfolios. Developing expertise on climate risk modeling for the financial sector and encouraging the systematic evaluation of risks and the implementation of stress tests in financial portfolios can also facilitate the adoption of sustainability practices, including those for adaptation and resilience within and beyond the financial system. 88 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 TABLE 8.1 >> Recommendations for improving financial and macrofiscal management of disaster and climate change risks Priority Links to other Fiscal Policy recommendation Priority Lead role Action priority actions implications 5.1 Assess the macroeconomic impacts of Short-term » MoTF 5.2, 5.3 disasters by comprehensively assessing » SBO disaster risks, understanding how » CBRT disasters translate into contingent » BRSA liabilities and therefore fiscal risks, and using these data to inform government » MoEUCC budget planning, such as the Medium- Term Development Strategy 5.2 Based on the understanding of disaster Medium-term » AFAD 4.2, 4.6, 5.1 risk, design a cost-effective national » MoTF disaster risk finance strategy adopting a » SBO risk layering approach to meeting post- » Local disaster costs govts. 5.3 Diversify the tax base away from climate- Medium to » MoTF 2.3 exposed sectors and assess potential long-term climate change and disaster implications on debt levels to reduce macrofinancial risks 5.4 Incentivize and regulate climate Medium-term » MoTF risk assessment, management, and » BRSA disclosure of private financial institutions to reduce macroeconomic risks Notes: AFAD = Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency; BRSA = Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency; CBRT= Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye; MoEUCC = Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change; MoTF = Ministry of Treasury and Finance; SBO = Strategy and Budget Office. 89 C H A P T E R 8 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 5 9 C H A P T E R 9 > > A D A P T A T ION PRINCIPLE 6 lll Application: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress “To effectively implement adaptation and resilience actions, governments must first establish the right institutional and legal framework for robust implementation (Action A.1 [6.1]) and then design a concrete multisectoral adaptation and resilience strategy that clearly identifies and prioritizes actions in line with available resources (Action A.2 [6.2]). A concrete set of intermediate targets and milestones is essential to implement the strategy in each sector (Action A.3 [6.3]). Governments should actively mainstream and integrate resilience in all public policies, rather than limit their consideration of resilience to climate-related actions (Action A.4 [6.4]). With priority actions defined, they need to raise, allocate and track adequate financial resources to implement the strategy (Action A.5 [6.5]). Finally, once implementation is underway and new information and challenges emerge, they will need to make regular strategy adjustments and course corrections to strengthen the approach (Action A.6 [6.6]). Overall, the key to successful implementation is ensuring that all government departments adopt and mainstream the strategy in all their decisions, and that governments continuously monitor and evaluate the impact of their decisions and actions, so they can address any challenges and adjust their actions accordingly.” —The Adaptation Principles A C T I ON 6.1 >> ACTION 6.2 >> Create a strong Design an adaptation and institutional and legal resilience strategy with framework, with prioritized actions appropriate stakeholder involvement ACTION 6.3 >> Set concrete sector- level targets to guide implementation by line ministries ACTION 6.6 > > Track progress over time, and review and revise the strategy ACTION 6.4 >> Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks, and align them with ACTION 6.5 >> adaptation targets Allocate appropriate funding to the adaptation strategy 90 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 PRIORITY ACTIONS lll 6.1 >> Create a strong institutional and legal framework, with appropriate stakeholder involvement lll 6.2 >> Design an A&R strategy with prioritized actions lll 6.3 >> Set concrete sector-level targets to guide implementation by line ministries and local governments lll 6.4 >> Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks and align them with adaptation targets lll 6.5 >> Allocate appropriate funding to the adaptation strategy lll 6.6 >> Track progress over time, and review and revise the strategy This chapter reviews progress made in prioritizing, implementing, and monitoring A&R action in Türkiye. The assessment includes 24 indicators corresponding to six priority actions. Although the overall results indicate that Türkiye has established a sound strategic framework with key elements for the design of an A&R strategy, this adaptation principle is still emerging and progress is needed in half of its priority actions, particularly in relation to prioritization and implementation. lll Priority Action 6.1 >> Create a strong institutional and legal framework, with appropriate stakeholder involvement INDICATORS >> lll Climate change law (II) lll Government coordination mechanism for A&R policies and actions (II) lll A&R governance framework (II) lll Effective stakeholder involvement (II) Türkiye has made progress in creating a strong institutional and legal framework for climate change and adaptation action, but overall climate governance can be further strengthened. Legal instruments are necessary to ensure that adaptation and resilience become an essential part of decision making and operational planning across government agencies at all levels. Türkiye regulates climate change issues through several articles embedded in different laws, including the Environment Law, the Soil Protection and Land Use Law, and the Energy Efficiency Law. It is preparing a framework law on climate change, which it needs to set legal grounds for emission targets, and to further specify functional competencies, improve coordination at horizontal and vertical levels, and strengthen accountability, stakeholder engagement, legislative oversight, and 91 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 judicial review (World Bank, forthcoming). Importantly, it ratified the Paris Agreement on October 7, 2021, announcing its net zero target by 2053. It also restructured the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (MoEU)—now the MoEUCC—incorporating the new PCC, with a mandate to coordinate all national and international matters related to climate change. Türkiye has interministerial coordination mechanisms and recently established a National Climate Council, which works through technical committees to guide policy making on key climate change issues. These are promising steps in the right direction toward setting a strong legal and operational basis for cross- sectoral coordination and implementation of adaptation and resilience in Türkiye. However, the country’s overall climate governance by the legislative, executive, and judiciary authorities could be further strengthened. Although the regulatory framework provides sufficient grounds for the courts to review climate action and for the public to bring climate change- related cases to the court, a framework law on climate change could strengthen the authority of courts to review climate actions (World Bank, forthcoming). For example, there is no precedent of a climate change-related legal action in Türkiye and, although the judiciary deals often with legal issues that relate to environmental protection and environmental impact assessments, the legal framework and procedures used for these assessments do not cover climate change. And although Parliament has a standing Environment Committee, it is not assigned with powers to review government action on climate change, including international commitments and national strategies and action plans. Parliamentary oversight relies on the performance audits of the Turkish Court of Accounts (TCA) conducted on public institutions’ plans and strategies, as well as thematic audits based on policy themes, but performance audits on climate change policies and plans have yet to be conducted and are not included in TCA’s Audit Strategic Plan (2019–23). A scrutiny committee is needed to oversee the performance of government action in relation to climate change commitments (World Bank, forthcoming). An interministerial coordination mechanism for adaptation and resilience is in place and guides climate change policies and actions. The Climate Change and Air Management Coordination Board, established in 2001, is the main intergovernmental coordination and stakeholder engagement body and played a critical role in consolidating the views of different parties and contributing to signing the Paris Agreement (World Bank, forthcoming). In October 2021, it was restructured through the same Presidential Decree that created the PCC and has a stronger legal basis. Renamed the Climate Change and Adaptation Coordination Board (CCACB), it acts as a coordination body for ministries, business associations, and other stakeholders, and is tasked with determining policies, strategies, and monitoring and evaluating plans and actions related to climate change. Led by the Minister of MOEUCC, members include high-level representatives from key ministries and agencies, three business associations—TOBB, TÜSİAD, and MÜSİAD— and the Turkish Union of Municipalities (UMT), having expanded its membership from 13 to 21. After its restructuring in 2021, the PCC also assumed secretariat functions, which were previously carried out by the Climate Change and Adaptation Department under the MOEUCC’s General Directorate of Environmental Management. Although civil society and professional organizations have no representation in the CCACB, they can participate in ad hoc working groups with public bodies, private sector representatives, and independent experts. The working groups prepare background research and documentation to inform CCACB decisions. Before its restructuring, the board had established seven working groups, which include: GHG emissions reduction; GHG inventory; the effects of climate change and adaptation;46 financing; technology development; training awareness and capacity building; and air management. But the mandate, procedures, and scope of the CCACB’s, PCC’s and the ad hoc working groups’ work could be further clarified through secondary legislation, as their broad definitions may increase ambiguities on how climate change policies and strategies are determined, activities are monitored, and their impacts are evaluated (World Bank, forthcoming). 46  This working group is responsible for the following topics: water resources, agriculture and food security, DRM, human health, ecosystem services, biodiversity and forestry, tourism, climate change projections and systematic observations, economic impacts of countermeasures, and transport infrastructure. 92 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 Stakeholder participation in climate change, adaptation, and resilience discussions and decision making is emerging and can be further strengthened. To date, climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and action plans have mostly been prepared through ad hoc participatory processes and contain uncertain measures for addressing stakeholder participation during implementation. As stakeholder engagement in developing strategies and planning action is not regulated, the frequency and depth of engagement vary. The government ensures stakeholder engagement through their participation in the CCACB and ad hoc working groups on climate change policy design and implementation issues. In addition to government agencies, the three largest business organizations and UMT are members of the board, civil society organizations and professional associations are not represented; they can only participate through the PCC ad hoc working groups. Although engagement with non-ministerial actors in the operation of the ad hoc working groups has been limited to date, they are expected to become more open to nongovernmental stakeholders under the new CCACB structure. The board would benefit from expanding its membership to include civil society organizations and from more open communication and information sharing with the public, by making meeting minutes and decisions available on its official website, as in the absence of information, the effectiveness of CCACB operations remains unclear (World Bank, forthcoming). The Research Committee on Identifying Measures to be taken for Minimizing the Effects of Global Climate Change, Fight Against Drought and Efficient Use of Water Resources under the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) effectively engages stakeholders through a broad participatory process of consultation on adaptation and resilience matters. The committee held 25 meetings, with hearings attended by a wide range of stakeholders, to prepare a report presented to the Plenary of the Parliament in 2021 before Türkiye ratified the Paris Agreement. In February 2022, in a major step toward engaging civil society in climate change processes, the government convened its first Climate Change Council in Konya to establish a roadmap for Türkiye to reach net zero emissions by 2053 in line with the Paris Agreement. Over 1,000 representatives of government agencies, academic institutions, businesses, nongovernmental organizations, farmers, and activists attended the five-day event where participants engaged in specialized working groups, contributed to setting medium and long-term strategic targets, and drafted recommendations (UNDP 2022b). Strengthening the regulatory basis of the Climate Change Council as a regular stakeholder engagement mechanism and harmonizing it with the mandates of the PCC and CCACB would contribute to ensuring the periodicity and predictability of meetings, diversity of stakeholder participation, and government responsibility on how it considers stakeholder inputs in climate change decision making (World Bank, forthcoming). lll Priority Action 6.2 >> Design an A&R strategy with prioritized actions INDICATORS >> lll National Climate Change Adaptation lll Long-term strategy (III) Strategy (II) lll National communications and biennial lll Nationally determined contribution (II) reports (II) Türkiye has established robust climate change strategies, and its forthcoming update provides an opportunity to identify gaps in implementation and establish ambitious goals to strengthen adaptation and resilience in the short and longer run. It has consistently included priority measures and targets for adaptation and resilience in the National Climate Change Strategy 93 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 (2010–23) and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23), though it could strengthen their alignment with the five-year NSPs. Türkiye submits its national communications and biennial reports to the UNFCCC (for example, MoEUCC 2019a) on a regular basis, and these have played a critical role in communicating the country’s emerging needs for adaptation and resilience. A comprehensive completion review of the current strategy, and assessment of progress made with adaptation in the past decade, will be crucial for identifying gaps in implementation, improving monitoring and evaluation (M&E) efforts, and informing the new priorities and objectives set forth in the updated strategy. Establishing both short- and longer-term ambitious goals and targets will be important to ensure that both the updated NDC and forthcoming LTS have strong A&R components. lll Priority Action 6.3 >> Set concrete sector-level targets to guide implementation by line ministries and local governments INDICATORS >> lll NDP incorporates A&R targets (II) lll Clear A&R functions assigned between national and local authorities (II) lll Tasking of central ministries (economy, lll Regional priority setting and finance, and planning) to tackle climate implementation (II) change issues (II) lll Sectoral A&R priority setting and lll Local climate change action (II) implementation (II) Mainstreaming A&R implementation at sectoral level is still at emerging levels in Türkiye. While an A&R strategy will set forth priorities and targets from a whole-of-government perspective, sectoral ministries should lead the planning, funding, and implementation of A&R actions in close collaboration with local governments. This requires defining clear roles and responsibilities for targets. Parliamentary approval and support and oversight from central ministries can significantly improve the strategy’s authority, reaffirm national interest in cross-sectoral and sectoral targets, and strengthen the ownership and accountability of the actors involved. In Türkiye, the 11th NDP clearly acknowledges the need for adaptation planning and capacity building, but the former is often not mainstreamed in sectoral strategies and plans. While the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23) identifies A&R actions for various sectors such as WRM, agriculture and food security, and DRM, among others, line ministries have yet to develop comprehensive sectoral climate change strategies and adaptation plans, and as a result, sectoral A&R actions are not always prioritized or effectively implemented (OECD 2019b). For example, the 2019–23 Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources has a strong focus on energy security and efficiency but does not address climate adaptation. The 2019–2023 Strategic Plan of the MoIT acknowledges the effects of climate change as a threat; but it sets no related targets. Furthermore, while central ministries and agencies—such as, the MoTF and SBO—are generally involved in A&R planning and policy development, they have not been tasked with clear roles and responsibilities, often resulting in weak collaboration and oversight with line ministries on these aspects (World Bank, forthcoming). These areas warrant improvements in planning, funding, and implementing an effective A&R strategy. 94 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 Local action on adaptation and resilience in Türkiye is also at emerging levels. Climate change is not regulated in the law stipulating the services provided by municipalities (Law of Municipalities No5393, Law of Metropolitan Municipalities No5216), or regulations on DRM expenditures. As such, there is no clear organizational structure and functional assignment of A&R policies and actions between national and local authorities and administrations, including legal grounds for enforcement. The MoEUCC has completed and published Regional Climate Change Action Plans (BIDEP, in Turkish acronym) for Türkiye’s seven geographical regions, which include detailed sectoral assessments and provide A&R measures for each region (World Bank, forthcoming). Provinces and regions have also recognized the need for adaptation and have started making investments to support adaptation initiatives. As of June 2020, 10 metropolitan municipalities had voluntarily drafted CCAPs and a number of cities are preparing theirs, a practice the MoEUCC plans to expand to all municipalities and regions through a recent communique. While these plans mainly cover GHG inventories and actions focused on mitigation, some CCAPs— including those of Istanbul, Bursa, and Denizli municipalities, and the district municipality of Kadıköy—have clear adaptation components. But these efforts remain at a preliminary stage, and local governments need further resources to carry out activities required to mitigate and adapt to climate change (World Bank, forthcoming). National policies and legislation that govern Turkish municipalities’ activities and expenditure management are still to be updated to facilitate actions on climate adaptation. lll Priority Action 6.4 >> Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks and align them with adaptation targets INDICATORS >> lll Disaster- and climate-informed public lll SOEs identify and consider climate- and investment management (II) disaster-related risks (II) lll Green taxonomy considering A&R (II) A&R policy objectives are not reflected in public investment cycles and expenditures. Mainstreaming climate change considerations in public investment management across institutions and projects is key to building resilience by making adaptation and risk reduction cost-effective and common practice. This is highlighted in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–23), and the 11th NDP calls for the country’s SOEs to integrate climate change in their long-term strategies and decision making. But there are no legal or regulatory requirements for mainstreaming climate change policy objectives into public financial management instruments, the investment cycle, or overall infrastructure governance. The SBO’s 2020–22 Investment Program Preparation Guidelines include some climate screening requirements, such as preparing environmental impact assessments and factoring the environmental impact of proposed projects into economic analyses. But core infrastructure governance processes, regulations, strategies, and planning do not integrate climate change policy objectives (World Bank, forthcoming). In the absence of legal and regulatory requirements, mainstreaming adaptation in the Public Investment Program is a challenge, as financial performance may outweigh institutions’ and companies’ climate concerns. Green budgeting and green taxonomies can be useful tools for decomposing green and non- green investments in Türkiye. About 14 OECD countries47 practice some form of green budgeting, 47  Australia, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, UK, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Sweden. 95 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 from evaluating the environmental impacts of budgetary and fiscal policies to assessing their coherence in meeting national and international commitments related to sustainable growth. Green budgeting is practiced heterogeneously across these countries, with countries such as France employing comprehensive tagging against green objectives and others such as Colombia tagging against green objectives that nest within a broader framework for high-level priorities— that is, budgeting for the Sustainable Development Goals (OECD 2021). Systematic screening of projects against climate change and disaster risks through a green taxonomy can also help separate green from (un)sustainable assets and economic activities, and could catalyze further investments by considering the objectives of the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy in Türkiye’s regulatory framework (World Bank 2021f). lll Priority Action 6.5 >> Allocate appropriate funding to the adaptation strategy INDICATORS >> lll National budget allocates funding for A&R lll Environmental protection spending (I) actions (II) lll Subnational governments budget for A&R lll Private sector A&R financing (II) actions (II) There is significant scope for improving public budgeting and funding allocation systems to implement a whole-of-government A&R strategy. Because there is no specific mandate to incorporate climate change in economic, public finance, and macro-level planning processes, climate change is not yet mainstreamed in central government budgets, where it appears as one of 67 programs (World Bank, forthcoming). Sectoral and institutional budgets and spending limits are assigned according to central government priorities, in line with the country’s 11th NDP and medium-term programs, and institutions’ strategic plans. At 1 percent of GDP, environmental spending in Türkiye is generally lower than the OECD average of 1.8 percent (2019) and A&R-specific needs are minimally reflected in the national budget. Specifically, the budget allocation for the Sustainable Environment and Climate Change (SECC) Program under the MoEUCC represents 0.14 percent of total central government budget. Within SECC’s budget, only 1.7 percent (0.0027 percent of total central government budget) is allocated to the Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Program, Türkiye’s main program on adaptation (World Bank, forthcoming). Funding for adaptation, risk reduction, and resilience building is highly concentrated in environmental budgets, a siloed approach that limits mainstreaming A&R investments across sectors. While dedicated funding is needed for some specific A&R tasks— such as M&E—the biggest funding needs are for sectoral interventions, such as retrofitting infrastructure or strengthening social protection, which requires A&R incremental costs to be integrated within regular sector budgets. But although sector policies and strategies are regularly well prepared, the associated budget to realize envisaged activities is not always estimated or allocated, often leaving planning and programming disconnected from the necessary financing. As a result, specific resources earmarked for adaptation and disaster resilience building can be disregarded due to budget competition for various investments. And although the MoEUCC is leading the development of regional and sectoral CCAPs and has mandated the development of municipal CCAPs, the necessary capacities and funding mechanisms for their implementation remain unclear, as current legal frameworks do not require local governments to allocate budgets for A&R actions, and climate change is not integrated in the laws stipulating the services provided by municipalities (World Bank, forthcoming). 96 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 Private sector financing will be key for scaling up adaptation and resilience investments at required levels. Türkiye has successfully used PPP financial models for infrastructure— including airports, highways, energy, health care, water, and rail projects—and has leveraged finance from multilateral development banks for climate objectives. With increasing awareness of sustainability and climate change, the private sector has been exploring financing options such as PPPs, domestic green loans, green bonds for the international market and other tools (World Bank 2021f). Some public-private joint initiatives in the insurance sector such as TARSIM and DASK are well established, providing good models to expand and/or replicate to further support adaptation and resilience efforts (box 9.1). Private sector finance is more prevalent for mitigation actions, such as clean, renewable energy investments, while private financing for adaptation and resilience is still limited. This is due to barriers such as the lack of decision- relevant climate information, the lack of regulatory framework and green taxonomy to guide the private sector, and the lack of policy and market incentives for reflecting the physical risks of climate change and disasters. BOX 9.1 >> DEEP DIVE 6 Private sector engagement in adaptation and resilience Private sector investment is crucial public resources to help close the investment in climate mitigation for closing the adaptation and adaptation finance gap. projects, yet participation in resilience finance gap. As economic adaptation and resilience has and human losses and damages Climate change will have significant remained relatively low. The attributable to natural hazards and impacts on Türkiye’s economic country embraced a decade of climate change increase, there is sectors. It is expected to put fast-growing PPPs, focusing on a growing urgency for new policy increasing pressure on a several power generation, urban transport, measures and investments focused sectors and infrastructure and may and social infrastructure, such as on adaptation and resilience to challenge operational, financial, hospitals. Some public-private joint reduce economic losses and and environmental businesses initiatives—such as TARSIM and protect people’s well-being. Yet, performance, social interactions, DASK in the insurance sector—are investments in building adaptation regulatory compliance, contractual established or emerging. But and resilience around the world obligations, and legal constraints. while both have shown significant continue to fall far short of The private sector is highly exposed progress with increasing insurance what is needed to avoid severe to risks from natural disasters uptake, private sector engagement economic and human impacts and climate change: 76 percent in adaptation and resilience has from climate change (UNEP 2021). of Türkiye’s industrial facilities (83 remained limited despite direct UNEP estimates that by 2030, percent of GDP) are in first- and climate- related risks to private the cost of adaptation will reach second-degree seismic risk zones sector core business operations. US$140–300 billion a year, and and are particularly vulnerable to In a 2013 questionnaire of Turkish by 2050, US$280–500 billion. earthquakes (World Bank 2019c). micro and SMEs,a 45 percent The NDCs of just 50 developing A 2013 market study of Türkiye’s of respondents noted that their countries identified more than private sector identifies the company had been significantly US$50 billion a year in adaptation sectors and industries that are affected in the previous three needs for 2020–30. In addition, most vulnerable to physical climate years by a climate- related event an estimated US$57–95 trillion risks (IFC and EBRD 2013); these (IFC and EBRD 2013). The majority of infrastructure is expected to include many of the 11th NDP’s of these were water- related, be built by 2030, which needs priority areas: electricity production, including extreme rainfall events to be made resilient to climate transmission, and distribution; water (45 percent), droughts and water change. It is also increasingly clear collection, treatment, and supply; shortages (42 percent), and that, although public finance for sewerage; chemicals and chemical decreasing rainfall (37 percent). adaptation has increased, it will products; tourism; and construction. The questionnaire also found that not suffice, and private sector these businesses were at very investment has an essential role Türkiye has built a strong track early stages of adapting to climate to play in supplementing limited record in attracting private sector change, with only six of the 90 a In line with the EU average, SMEs account for more than nine out of every 10 enterprises in Türkiye. 97 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 BOX 9.1 >> DEEP DIVE 6 CONTINUE D respondents having started to take whole-of-government approach financing, could further increase action related to climate change. funding for A&R while opening » Developing a national adaptation new avenues for economic growth. There are several barriers to investment plan anchored in a The World Bank’s Enabling Private attracting the volume of finance national A&R strategy Investment in Adaptation initiative needed to advance the adaptation aims to identify a shortlist of agenda in the private sector. » Conducting a market bankable adaptation investments According to the World Bank report assessment and screening the that Türkiye could prioritize for Enabling Private Investment in pipeline for “bankable” projects private financing. Based on Tall et Climate Adaptation and Resilience for different investors al.’s (2021) blueprint for action, a (Tall et al. 2021), of the US$30 first step consists in identifying key billion spent globally on adaptation » Providing ongoing support for A&R priority areas and investments in 2017–18, only around US$500 project preparation based on national strategies, plans, million—a mere 1.6 percent—came surveys, stakeholder consultation, from private adaptation spending. » Supporting individual projects and other means, and then According to Tall et al., the main to close the transaction. preparing a long list of potential reasons for the relatively low level adaptation investments in priority of investment in A&R-building Making new infrastructure—such areas by screening the climate include a lack of country-level as power, roads, or ports—climate- change adaptation declarations climate risk and vulnerability data resilient can yield significant and plans of local authorities, and information services that economic gains in Türkiye. The publicly listed companies, and can be used to guide investment authorities can ensure that official tender announcements for decision making, limited clarity on adaptation considerations are public procurement. The selected the government’s capital investment integrated into decision making long list of projects is then used gaps to achieve adaptation goals and build awareness of the financial to guide the identification of a and/or where private investment is and non-financial benefits of shortlist of bankable projects needed, and low perceived or actual scaling up adaptation efforts. that governments can prioritize returns on investment. Developing Entire systems can be made more for private financing by screening a national adaptation investment resilient by making prudent choices pre-identified projects for better plan can also help bridge these about where and what to build and value for money through possible gaps, serving as a basis for clarifying which assets to upgrade, and by PPPs and conducting early market capital investment needs to achieve prioritizing green infrastructure sounding to understand private climate resilience and for initiating where possible. This will require sector appetite for prioritized discussion with private investors. policy makers to develop blended projects. A second step involves public-private approaches that further understanding the Governments need to adopt share the costs and benefits of necessary enabling conditions a more strategic approach to investing in resilient infrastructure. and incentives to support market engage the private sector in Building institutional climate risk development and private sector adaptation. A coordinated approach analysis, planning, and project investment through relevant to developing, financing, and preparation capacity across policy, regulatory, and institutional executing priority adaptation government will be important to frameworks. This includes investments, with well-defined help ensure that infrastructure assessing market and PPP policies goals and national investment plans, planning and adaptation strategies and regulations to identify key can help accelerate and scale up are holistic and evidence-driven. obstacles and opportunities for private investment in adaptation Priority areas could include water adaptation finance. A third step and resilience in Türkiye. Tall et efficiency in agriculture, agri- is to explore the most promising al. (2021) pioneer a blueprint for processing, and manufacture, and financing modalities—including action for governments to identify climate resilience in buildings, PPPs, public finance, and blended entry points for action to catalyze which are the most economically finance opportunities—to develop private investment in adaptation, important and climatically an effective financing strategy. with three areas of intervention for vulnerable sectors (IFC and EBRD The ultimate goal is to produce a public sector stakeholders: policy; 2013). ground-tested blueprint for action incentives; and standards, metrics, to boost private investment in A&R and regulations. It also identifies Developing specific guidance that global, regional, national, and five entry points to enable private for private sector participation local adaptation stakeholders can investment in adaptation: in climate A&R infrastructure use to mobilize as much private in Türkiye, along with a national investment as possible to meet » Supporting long-term adaptation investment plan to countries’ fast-growing needs in a adaptation planning, taking a attract and scale up private sector resilient way. 98 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 lll Priority Action 6.6 >> Track progress over time, and review and revise the strategy INDICATORS >> lll Monitoring and evaluating A&R (II) lll Disaster-related expenditure tracking and review (III) lll Independent monitoring of A&R progress (II) Türkiye does not systematically monitor and evaluate adaptation progress and post-disaster expenditure, yet this is crucial for effective and flexible implementation. Due to the uncertainty linked to climate change processes, strategic actions on A&R-building need to be revised and adjusted at regular intervals to take stock of what has worked and reprioritize actions based on emerging needs and under the light of new scientific evidence and unfolding climate conditions, such as new risks, and socioeconomic situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This requires a simple, yet clear and effective M&E system for adaptation and resilience. Although the National Strategy on Climate Change stipulates the establishment of an M&E mechanism under the CCACB, no information is available on its implementation progress and whether a dedicated mechanism exists for monitoring and evaluating the Climate Change Strategy and CCAP (2011–23) (World Bank, forthcoming). This suggests that Türkiye does not have an established M&E system for adaptation and resilience, and this is a major limitation for effective monitoring of climate action. Nor is there external and independent auditing of A&R progress. But the MoEUCC is making efforts to form a pool of adaptation experts to advise and support the recently announced National Climate Change Platform and National Climate Change Research Center, which will be responsible for climate change-related data, scientific research, policy formulation, and monitoring (World Bank, forthcoming). Although Türkiye has legislation to regulate disaster-related expenditures, and the TCA reviews disaster-related expenditures, the country does not systematically conduct post-disaster public financial management reviews. Policy recommendations for strengthening adaptation and resilience Türkiye’s recent ratification of the Paris Agreement represents an important milestone for advancing climate change adaptation in the country. However, effective implementation of its updated National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan will require mainstreaming A&R across all sectors and levels of government, assigning clear roles and responsibilities for target setting, allocating sufficient budget for implementation, and regularly monitoring actions. This can be achieved by further aligning climate change adaptation and DRM priorities with national development planning and policies, and integrating them into institutional strategic plans to ensure they can be systematically considered when implementing and monitoring government programs. Based on the results of this assessment, the following recommendations can help the government of Türkiye to further prioritize, implement, and monitor progress on A&R actions. 99 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 Create a strong institutional and legal framework for A&R, with broad stakeholder engagement. Passing a comprehensive climate change law (currently in progress) and strengthening A&R governance by assigning clear roles and responsibilities to central and line ministries, local governments, and service providers are central to this. Further building the capacity and authority of the executive, judiciary, and legislative branches to review, audit, and enforce A&R actions is also vital. This could include establishing a climate change committee under the TGNA and including climate change in TCA’s thematic audits. Consolidating broad and systematic stakeholder engagement mechanisms such as through the CCACB and Climate Change Council—and giving them a regulatory basis—can help also ensure that climate policies and decisions capture stakeholders’ adaptation and resilience needs and are communicated appropriately across society. Design an A&R strategy with prioritized actions. Türkiye already has a National Climate Change Strategy and an Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan, but they expire in 2023. Updating these strategies offers an opportunity to review their implementation, identify needs and priorities, and set short- and long-term goals and targets to inform these and other national climate- related processes, including the NDC update and the forthcoming preparation of the LTS. Set concrete sector-level targets to guide implementation by line ministries and local governments. This includes mainstreaming the A&R provisions of Türkiye’s NDP at the sectoral level and ensuring that line ministries lead the planning, funding, and implementation of comprehensive sectoral A&R strategies and plans, in close collaboration with local governments. Türkiye can benefit from establishing clear and legally binding functional responsibilities for A&R planning and action across all levels of government. It could task central ministries and agencies with designing national A&R strategic processes and approving, supporting, and overseeing sectoral A&R strategies and action plans. Integrating A&R into the national policies and legislation that govern municipal activities and expenditures can further accelerate risk management and climate adaptation action at the local level. Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks and align them with adaptation targets. To ensure that A&R becomes systematically embedded in regular sectoral strategic planning and budgeting, the government can establish legal or regulatory requirements for mainstreaming climate change policy objectives into public financial management instruments and investment cycles. Public and private enterprises alike would benefit from a more comprehensive consideration of climate and disaster risks into their planning and budgeting processes. A green taxonomy could become an important screening mechanism for the private sector, while SOEs would benefit from establishing a more active screening of climate and disaster risk integration into their long-term strategies, plans, budgets, and expenditures. Allocate appropriate funding to the National Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. This requires increasing environmental protection spending to OECD levels and allocating sufficient resources to cover A&R needs at national, subnational, and sectoral levels, including budgets for the implementing regional and municipal CCAPs. Mainstreaming A&R in sectoral budgets can further contribute to shifting the focus of and responsibility for tackling climate change from the environment sector to the whole of government. Developing a plan to attract and scale up private sector financing for A&R solutions with investment potential could provide the additional resources required for adaptation spending. The private sector could also benefit from regulatory instruments and market incentives to address the physical risks of climate change and disasters. 100 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 Systematically track progress over time, and review and revise the National Adaptation Strategy. Designing and implementing an overall M&E plan for adaptation targets with regular progress reviews will be crucial for tracking the effectiveness and efficiency of actions taken to reduce risks and build resilience, and for adjusting the National Adaptation Strategy accordingly during its next 10-year cycle. Accelerating the establishment of the independent adaptation experts pool that will advise the NCCP and the National Climate Change Research Center can also help better monitor and steer A&R action in the country. Türkiye can also benefit from conducting and institutionalizing systematic post-disaster public financial management reviews. TABLE 9.1 >> Recommendations for the prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress of adaptation and resilience Priority Links to other Fiscal Policy recommendation Priority Lead role Action priority actions implications 6.1 Strengthen the legal framework for A&R Short-term » MoEUCC implementation and governance, with » AFAD clear roles and responsibilities for central » SBO and line ministries and across different » TGNA actors though a framework climate change law » TCA 6.2 Update the National Climate Change Short-term » MoEUCC Strategy and the National Adaptation » AFAD Strategy and Action Plan to include short, » SBO medium, and long-term A&R actions and targets linked to the NDP and sectoral strategic plans 6.3 Promote the development, funding, Short to » Line 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, and implementation of comprehensive medium term ministries 3.8, 6.2, 6.5 sectoral A&R strategies and plans » Local led by sectoral line ministries in close govts. collaboration with local governments » MoEUCC » AFAD » MOTF 6.4 Incorporate systematic climate and Medium-term » SBO 6.2, 6.3, 6.5 disaster risk screening in public » MOTF investment management and in private » MoEUCC investment through a green taxonomy » AFAD 6.5 Secure appropriate public and private Medium to » SBO funding for national, subnational, and long term » MOTF sectoral A&R actions and increase » Line environmental spending to foster ministries resilience » Local govts 6.6 Design and implement an overall M&E Medium-term » MoEUCC plan for the updated A&R strategy » AFAD and conduct regular and independent » TurkStat progress reviews Notes: AFAD = Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency; MoEUCC = Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change; MoTF = Ministry of Treasury and Finance; SBO = Strategy and Budget Office; TCA = Turkish Court of Accounts; TGNA = Turkish Grand National Assembly; TurkStat = Turkish Statistical Institute. 101 C H A P T E R 9 : A D A P TAT I O N P R I N C I P L E 6 10 CHAPTER 10 >> Türkiye A&R assessment stocktake The aftermath of the COVID-19 report provides an assessment of pandemic presents a major current policy strengths, gaps, and opportunity for Türkiye’s opportunities for strengthening economic growth to resume in national capacities to prepare, cope a green, resilient, and inclusive with, and recover from external shocks development pathway while across levels of government, sectors, learning from the pandemic and stakeholders, including the private experience to further refine the sector. While the report offers detailed policy, institutional, and regulatory analyses and recommendations on frameworks needed to strengthen each of the adaptation principles, this preparedness against climate and stocktake summarizes key findings and disaster risks and build back better highlights priorities that can inform after future external shocks. ongoing national strategic climate change and development processes Following The Adaptation Principles in the aftermath of the COVID-19 (Hallegatte et al. 2020), this pandemic. 102 C H A P T E R 1 0 : T Ü R K I Y E A & R A S S E S S M E N T S T O C K TA K E Although Türkiye has made good progress in several areas to support adaptation and resilience to climate and disaster risks, this assessment finds that its overall enabling environment is still emerging. Based on the 155 indicators used to assess 31 priority actions and six adaptation principles, the results show that at the aggregate level, none of the principles is well established. Four principles are emerging, and two are nascent. The least advanced principles are those related to the conditions required to facilitate the adaptation of people and firms (Adaptation Principle 2) and manage financial and macrofiscal issues (Adaptation Principle 5). At priority action level, 20 are emerging, 10 are nascent, and only one—related to the key elements of an A&R strategy—is well established. Figure 10.1 summarizes the assessment by adaptation principle, while a scorecard showing results at priority action level is in Appendix B. These findings indicate that progress is still needed across most priority actions and adaptation principles in Türkiye to effectively reduce vulnerability and build resilience to climate change, natural disasters, and other external shocks. FIGURE 10.1 >> Summary of A&R assessment for Türkiye a. A&R scores per Adaptation Principle Adaptation Principle 1: Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development Adaptation Principle 6: 1.96 Adaptation Principle 2: Application: Prioritization, Facilitate the adaptation of implementation, and people and firms monitoring progress 1.83 1.62 1.56 Adaptation Principle 5: 1.90 Adaptation Principle 3: Manage financial and Adapt urban and land use macrofiscal issues plans and protect critical 1.88 public assets and services Adaptation Principle 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural hazards b. A&R scores per indicator used in the assessment Adaptation Principle 1 7 5 11 Adaptation Principle 2 1 14 8 Adaptation Principle 3 7 21 11 Adaptation Principle 4 5 14 6 Adaptation Principle 5 8 6 Adaptation Principle 6 2 11 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 Share of indicators (%)  Established  Emerging  Nascent Note: The number in each bar shows the number of indicators per category. 103 C H A P T E R 1 0 : T U R K E Y A & R A S S E S S M E N T S T O C K TA K E The assessment highlights the following key near- to medium-term policy priorities for strengthening A&R preparedness in Türkiye. Continue efforts to reduce poverty and share prosperity, while ensuring that the most vulnerable populations have the financial, technical, and institutional resources they need to adapt. Priority actions include measures to ensure macroeconomic stability, expand social protection coverage, adequacy, and efficiency, increase the scope and efficiency of investments in human capital, reduce gender disparities in labor force participation, and increase access to financial services, health care, and telecommunications for poor and vulnerable populations. Enhancing governance to the level of other OECD countries is also a priority to ensure the sustainability of A&R actions. Strengthen the provision of and access to climate risk information that people and firms need to adapt. Türkiye can build on the good progress it has made to date and continue generating climate, risk, and socioeconomic data and information for effective adaptation and risk reduction processes at various geographic and temporal scales. Public access to existing data and information can be improved, and more granular information generated, including downscaled climate change scenarios and local-scale hazard maps. Sectoral climate and natural hazard risk assessments are also urgently needed to support adaptation decisions by the people and firms who depend on these sectors. Establishing residual risk targets would help clarify the level of protection public infrastructure offers against natural hazards and enable people and businesses to make informed risk reduction decisions and investments. Opportunities to further support adaptation while promoting economic diversification and competitiveness under climate change include: encouraging the development of CCAPs for businesses to help them identify the risks and opportunities climate change poses to their operations; elaborating comprehensive assessments for sunset and sunrise sectors; and creating incentives for business innovation, R&D, and commercialization of A&R solutions. Protect public investments, assets, and services from climate impacts through integrated and comprehensive strategic approaches. This includes developing a government-wide infrastructure masterplan that encompasses, among others: completing a full inventory and mapping of public assets and an assessment of their vulnerability to major hazards; identifying critical infrastructure and a system to monitor public asset performance and maintenance; strengthening the enforcement of infrastructure and building regulations for private actors to invest in resilient construction; and improving the integration of risk considerations in urban and land use planning by training planners in DRM and promoting the use of local hazard maps and downscaled climate change scenarios, when available. Build on the progress made during—and lessons learned from—the COVID-19 pandemic to strengthen the education and health care systems’ capacity to cope with major emergencies. This includes expanding the capacity of health care workforce to ensure the system meets recommended WHO levels. To reduce educational disruptions, Türkiye can expand and strengthen its digital learning system, bolster teachers’ ICT skills, and set up mechanisms to reduce the digital divide that affects vulnerable populations. Develop overarching strategies for the adaptation of climate-sensitive natural resource sectors, particularly agriculture and water. A comprehensive adaptation strategy for agriculture that mainstreams CSA approaches can support rural planning processes and adaptation in all agriculture subsectors. Such a strategy can: enable the rapid expansion of end- to-end climate services for farmers and other actors to receive the information they need for 104 C H A P T E R 1 0 : T U R K E Y A & R A S S E S S M E N T S T O C K TA K E short- and medium-term decision making; promote the use of agricultural insurance and other risk reduction solutions that are already available; and spur innovation through R&D efforts in finding new adaptation solutions tailored to local and subsectoral needs. Strengthening collaboration with the agencies in charge of WRM would ensure the CSA strategy leads to more efficient water resource use. The agencies in charge of WRM across levels of government must also strengthen their coordination and collaboration mechanisms to ensure that existing WRM plans, which are crucial for adaptation, are effectively implemented. Climate-smart water management—with integrated water resource investment planning, policy and regulatory instruments that encourage demand-side management, investments in multipurpose water storage, and continued modernization of irrigation and drainage services—should be mainstreamed. This can be further facilitated by the developing an overarching WRM strategy that integrates existing sector plans and incorporates long-term climate change considerations. Further strengthen adaptation and resilience by tapping into the potential of NbS and mainstreaming them across sectors as cost-effective mechanisms for protecting people and assets and a source for economic growth. Türkiye can achieve this by striving to conserve its biodiversity and ecosystem services and protect them from further degradation pressures. Designing and implementing a blue economy strategy could help protect the vast number of people and assets located in coastal areas. Integrating natural resource accounts into development planning and decision making would also contribute to Türkiye’s green and resilient growth objectives and provide a systematic way to monitor the stock and flows of natural capital. Ensure people and firms can prepare, cope with, and recover from unavoidable climate shocks and disasters. Recommendations include reinforcing Türkiye’s emergency management services by conducting detailed EP&R needs assessments and strengthening the skills of emergency personnel; giving households and firms better access to risk management instruments by promoting greater insurance coverage against climate-related perils; extending the social protection registry and interconnecting it with DRM systems to build an adaptive social protection system; and incentivizing the private sector to develop BCPs. Ensuring enhanced resilience standards are part of recovery plans can further help the country build back better and more sustainably. Protect the economy from the macroeconomic impacts of climate change and natural disasters. Türkiye can achieve this by, among other things, assessing financial risks and contingent liabilities associated with natural hazards and climate change to inform financial institutions and facilitate a better understanding of risk; and reviewing available financial instruments for DRM in Türkiye to ensure they can cover both assessed and unforeseen contingent liabilities and thus reduce the risk of hazard impacts suddenly affecting fiscal balances. The government can also diversify the tax base away from vulnerable sectors to hedge macrofiscal risks, review public debt vulnerabilities relative to climate change and disasters, and implement regulations for private financial institutions to identify, test, manage, and report climate and natural hazard risks in their portfolios. Integrate A&R considerations in public and private investment management by developing regulatory requirements and guidance to ensure public financial management instruments, the investment cycle, the annual investment program, and overall infrastructure governance systematically integrate and contribute to achieving climate change policy objectives and are screened for climate and disaster risks. Establishing green budgeting approaches could help ensure resources are earmarked for A&R investments while a green taxonomy could help separate green from (un)sustainable assets and economic activities, catalyzing further investments. A national adaptation investment plan can also clarify capital investment needs and attract private funding for achieving climate resilience. 105 C H A P T E R 1 0 : T U R K E Y A & R A S S E S S M E N T S T O C K TA K E Mainstream adaptation and resilience in institutional planning and budgeting processes across sectors and government levels and monitor progress to adjust course over time. The update of Türkiye’s National Adaptation Strategy offers an opportunity to revise the policy, institutional, and regulatory framework needed to prepare for the impacts of hazards that are known, and those that will become more frequent with climate change. The strategy should be accompanied by a comprehensive climate change law defining clear roles, responsibilities, and targets for central government ministries, sectors, and local governments to effectively integrate A&R issues in their planning and implementation processes. An updated national A&R strategy would need clear targets for prioritized actions, an effective M&E system to track progress, and adequate funding levels for general coordination, while specific actions should be embedded in national and sectoral budgets. 106 C H A P T E R 1 0 : T U R K E Y A & R A S S E S S M E N T S T O C K TA K E References Abadie, L M, Sainz de Murieta, E and Galarraga, I. 2016. “Climate Risk Assessment under Uncertainty: An Application to Main European Coastal Cities.” Frontiers in Marine Science, 3. AFAD. 2019. Strategic Plan 2019-2023. Ankara: Ministry of Interior, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency. AFAD. 2020. 2019 Overview of Disaster Management and Natural Disaster Statistics. Ankara: Ministry of Interior, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency. AFAD. 2022. Shelters. Ankara: Ministry of Interior, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency. Albayrakoğlu, E P. 2011. “Climate Change and Security: The Case for Turkey.” Gazi Univ. Akademik Bakış J, 5: 59–76. Aligishiev, Z, Bellon, M and Massetti, E. 2022. Macrofiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change. IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/002. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund. Arvis, J-F, Ojala, L, Shepherd, B, Raj, A, Dairabayeva, K and Kiiski, T. 2018. Connecting to Compete 2018 Trade Logistics in the Global Economy. Washington DC: The World Bank. Ataol, M and Onmuş, O. 2021. “Wetland Loss in Turkey Over a Hundred Years: Implications for Conservation and Management.” Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 7:1, 1930587. Atmaca, N, Atmaca, A and Kılçık, S. 2019. “Comparison of 2018 and 2007 Turkish Earthquake Regulations.” International Journal of Natural and Engineering Sciences, 4(2):19–25. Baez, J, Inan, O K, and Nebiler, M. 2021. Getting Real? The Uneven Burden of Inflation Across Households in Turkey. Washington DC: World Bank. Bagherzadeh, M and Shigemitsu, M. 2021. Building Agricultural Resilience to Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters: Turkey Case Study. Paris: OECD, Trade and Agriculture Directorate Committee for Agriculture. BBC News. 2021. “Turkey Floods: Death Toll Near Black Sea Rises to at Least 70.” BBC News, August 16, 2021. Bellon, M, and Massetti E. 2022. Economic Principles for Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into Fiscal Policy. IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund. Bournas, D A. 2018. “Concurrent Seismic and Energy Retrofitting of RC and Masonry Building Envelopes Using Inorganic Textile-Based Composites Combined with Insulation Materials: A New Concept.” Composites Part B: Engineering 148: 166–179. Bowen, T, del Ninno, C, Andrews, C, Coll-Black, S, Gentilini, U, Johnson, K, Kawasoe, Y, Kryeziu, A, Maher, B and Williams, A. 2020. Adaptive Social Protection: Building Resilience to Shocks. International Development in Focus. Washington DC: World Bank. Browder, G, Ozment, S, Rehberger Bescos, I, Gartner, T and Lange, G-M. 2019. Integrating Green and Gray Creating Next Generation Infrastructure. Washington, DC: World Bank and World Resources Institute. Buchner, B, Naran, B, Fernandes, P, Padmanabhi, R, Rosane, P, Solomon, M, Stout, S, Strinati, C, Tolentino, R, Wakaba, G, Zhu, Y, Meattle, C and Guzmán, S. 2021. Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2021. Climate Policy Initiative. Business for Goals. 2020. Survey on Impact of COVID-19 on Enterprises and Needs: Turkey Report on Survey Results. Available at: https://www.business4goals.org (in Turkish). Çapar, G. 2019. Climate Change and Water Resources Management. Climate Change Training Module Series 8. Ankara: General Directorate of Environmental Management. CCKP. Climate Change Knowledge Portal. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org (accessed February 3, 2022). ÇEM. 2018. DEMIS Turkey Water Erosion Statistics. Ankara: General Directorate of Desertification and Erosion Control. Climate Action Tracker. 2021. Turkey Update, October 22, 2021. https://climateactiontracker.org (accessed February 3, 2022). Climate Analytics. Climate Impact Explorer. http://climate-impact-explorer.climateanalytics.org (accessed February 4, 2022). Çoban, D, Demircan, M D and Tosun, DD (eds). 2020. Marine Aquaculture in Turkey: Advancements and Management. Publication No 59. Istanbul, Turkey: Turkish Marine Research Foundation (TUDAV). Debele, S E, Kumar, P, Sahani, J, Marti-Cardona, B, Mickovski, S B, Leo, L S, Porcù, F, Bertini, F, Montesi, D, Vojinovic, Z and Di Sabatino, S. 2019. “Nature-based Solutions for Hydro-meteorological Hazards: Revised Concepts, Classification Schemes and Databases.” Environmental Research, 179: 108799. Dengizb, O and Uzunera, C. 2020. “Desertification Risk Assessment in Turkey Based on Environmentally Sensitive Areas.” Ecological Indicator, 114: 106295. Emircan, M, Gürkan, H, Eskioğlu, O, Arabaci, H and Coşkun, M. 2017. “Climate Change Projections for Turkey: Three Models and Two Scenarios.” Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 1(1):22–43. Dudu, H and Çakmak, E H. 2018. “Climate Change and Agriculture: An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Economy- wide Effects for Turkey.” Climate and Development, 10(3): 275–288. 107 REFERENCES EFFIS. European Forest Fire Information System. Statistics Portal. https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/effis. statistics (accessed February 3, 2022). EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare. 2015. “Scientific Opinion on Peste des Petits Ruminants.” EFSA Journal, 13(1): 3985. Erdogan, A and Del Carpio, X. 2019. Turkey Jobs Diagnostic. Washington DC: World Bank. EU. 2020. European Union (EU) Regulation (EU) 2020/852 (Taxonomy) on the establishment of a framework to facilitate sustainable investment. Falduto, C and Rocha, M. 2020. Aligning Short-Term Climate Action with Long-Term Climate Goals: Opportunities and Options for Enhancing Alignment Between NDCs and Long-Term Strategies. Paris: OECD/ IEA Climate Change Expert Group Paper No.2020 (2). FAO. FAOSTAT: Land Use. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. www.fao.org/ faostat (accessed February 3, 2022). FAO. 2017. Drought Characteristics and Management in Central Asia and Turkey. FAO Water Reports 44. University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Water for Food Institute. FAO. 2020. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Feyen, E, Utz, R, Zuccardi Huertas, I, Bogan, O and Moon, J. 2020. Macro-Financial Aspects of Climate Change. Policy Research Working Paper No. 9109. Washington DC: World Bank. Financial Stability Board. 2016. Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements. Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and World Bank. 2018. Key Agricultural Product Risk Assessment (KAPRA). Report on the Financial Resilience of Key Agricultural Products to Climate Change. Washington DC: World Bank. Fullman, N, Yearwood, J, Abay, S M, Abbafati, C, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, ... and Chang, H Y. 2018. “Measuring Performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 Countries and Territories and Selected Subnational Locations: A Systematic Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.” The Lancet, 391(10136): 2236–2271. GFDRR. 2016. Europe and Central Asia: Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes. Washington DC: World Bank. GGDC. Penn World Tables. Groeningen Growth and Development Centre. www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/ pwt (accessed February 3, 2022). Gomei, M, Abdulla, A, Schröder, C, Yadav, S, Sánchez, A, Rodríguez, D and Abdul Malak, D (2019) Towards 2020: How Mediterranean Countries are Performing to Protect their Sea. World Wide Fund for Nature. Government of Turkey. 2009. Law No.5902 on the Establishment and Duties of the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority. Government of Turkey. 2011. Regulation on Disaster and Emergency Expenditures. Government of Turkey. 2021. Central Management Budget Law of 2021. Green, J K, Seneviratne, S I, Berg, A M, Findell, K L, Hagemann, S, Lawrence, D M and Gentine, P. 2019. “Large Influence of Soil Moisture on Long-term Terrestrial Carbon Uptake.” Nature, 565(7740): 476–479. Green Transition Navigator. https://green-transition-navigator.org (accessed February 3, 2022). Guha-Sapir, D, Below, R and Hoyois, Ph. 2022. EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database. Brussels: Université Catholique de Louvain. www.emdat.be (accessed February 3, 2022). Gülkan, H P. 2018. Natural Hazards Governance in Turkey. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science, edited by Gülkan, H P. Oxford University Press. Hallegatte, S, Green, C, Nicholls, R J and Corfee-Morlot, J. 2013. “Future Flood Losses in Major Coastal Cities.” Nature Climate Change, 3(9): 802–806. Hallegatte, S, Jooste, C and Mcisaac, F J. 2022. Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters: A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floods and Earthquakes in Turkey. Policy Research working paper no. WPS 9943. Washington DC: World Bank Group. Hallegatte, S, Rentschler, J and Rozenberg, J. 2019 Lifelines. The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. Washington DC: World Bank. Hallegatte, S, Rentschler, J and Rozenberg, J. 2020 The Adaptation Principles: A Guide for Designing Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. Washington DC: World Bank. Hallegatte, S, Vogt-Schlib, A, Bangalore, M and Rozenberg, J. 2017. Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Washington DC: World Bank. Hansen, K. 2021. Disappearing Lake Tuz. NASA Earth Observatory. Available at: https://earthobservatory. nasa.gov. Harrowsmith, M, Nielsen, M, Sanchez, M, Perez, E, Uprety, M, Johnson, C, Homberg, M, Tijssen, A, Page, E, Lux, S and Comment, T. 2020. The Future of Forecasts: Impact-based Forecasting for Early Action. IFRC and UK Met Office. 108 REFERENCES Hommes, L, Boelens, R and Maat, H. 2016. “Contested Hydrosocial Territories and Disputed Water Governance: Struggles and Competing Claims over the Ilisu Dam Development in Southeastern Turkey.” Geoforum, 71: 9–20. Huang, K, Li, X, Liu, C and Seto, K. 2019. “Projecting Global Urban Land Expansion and Heat Island Intensification Through 2050.” Environmental Research Letters, 14(11): 114037. IFC. 2021. Ctrl-Alt-Delete: A Green Reboot for Emerging Markets. Washington DC: International Finance Corporation. IFC and EBRD. 2013. Pilot Climate Change Adaptation Market Study: Turkey. Washington DC: International Finance Corporation. London: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Ilki, A and Celep, Z. 2012 “Earthquakes, Existing Buildings and Seismic Design Codes in Turkey.” Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 37: 365–380. IMF. Climate Change Indicators Dashboard. https://climatedata.imf.org (accessed November 6, 2021). IMF. World Economic Outlook (WEO) Databases. www.imf.org (accessed February 3, 2022). IPCC. Interactive Atlas. https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch (accessed April 25, 2022). IPCC. 2014. Annex II: Glossary. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. 2021. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson- Delmotte, V, P Zhai, A Pirani, S L Connors, C Péan, S Berger, N Caud, Y Chen, L Goldfarb, M I Gomis, M Huang, K Leitzell, E Lonnoy, J B R Matthews, T K Maycock, T Waterfield, O Yelekçi, R Yu, and B Zhou (eds.)]. In Press. IPCC. 2022. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H-O Pörtner, D C Roberts, M Tignor, E S Poloczanska, K Mintenbeck, A Alegría, M Craig, S Langsdorf, S Löschke, V Möller, A Okem, B Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. IUCN. 2016. Defining Nature-based Solutions. World Conservation Congress Resolution 069. Hawaii: IUCN. IUCN. 2018. Red List of Species. Gland: IUCN. Koks, E, E, Rozenberg, J, Tariverdi, M, Dickens, B, van Ginkel, C H, Fox, C and Hallegatte, S. Forthcoming. Road Show: Identifying National Network Resilience Globally. Washington DC: World Bank. Kulp, S A and Strauss, B H. 2019. “New Elevation Data Triple Estimates of Global Vulnerability to Sea- level Rise and Coastal Flooding.” Nature Communications, 10(1): 4844. Kumaz, L. 2014. Drought in Turkey. Istanbul Policy Center-Mercator Policy Brief. Istanbul: Sabanci University. Melaku Canu, D, Ghermandi, A, Nunes, P A L D, Lazzari, P, Cossarini, G and Solidoro, C. 2015. “Estimating the Value of Carbon Sequestration Ecosystem Services in the Mediterranean Sea: An Ecological Economics Approach.” Global Environmental Change, 32: 87–95. MoAF. 2016a. Agricultural Research Master Plan (2016–2020). Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. MoAF. 2016b. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Project (in Turkish). Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. MoAF TSMS. 2021. State of the Turkey’s Climate in 2020. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Turkish State Meteorological Service. MoD. 2019. Eleventh Development Plan (2019–2023). Ankara: Ministry of Development, Department of Strategy and Budget. MoEU. 2010. KENTGES, Integrated Urban Development Strategy and Action Plan (2010–2023). Ankara: Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. MoEU. 2011. Turkey’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. Ankara: Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. MoEU. 2016. State of the Environment Report for the Republic of Turkey. Ankara: General Directorate of Environmental Impact Assessment, Permit and Inspection, Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. MoEUCC. 2018a. Environmental Problems and Priorities Assessment Report (with 2016 data). Ankara: Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. MoEUCC. 2018b. Seventh National Communication of Turkey under the UNFCCC. Ankara: Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. MoEUCC. 2019a. Fourth Biennial Report under the UNFCCC. Ankara: Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. MoEUCC. 2019b. Climate Change Training Module Series 1: Scientific Basis of Climate Change and Impacts on Turkey. Ankara: Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. MoEUCC. 2020. Sixth State of Environment Report for the Republic of Turkey. Ankara: General Directorate of Environmental Impact Assessment, Permit and Inspection, Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. 109 REFERENCES MoH. 2021. Hospital Disaster and Emergency Plan (HAP) Preparation Guide. Ankara: Ministry of Health. Monsalve, C and Watsa, K. 2020. Human Capital and Climate Action: Outcomes that Deliver for People and Planet. Available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/human-capital-and-climate-action- outcomes-deliver-people-and-planet. MoTF and Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye. 2022. Medium-Term Program (2023-2025). Ankara: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Presidency of Strategy and Budget. Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council. 2019. Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: 2019 Report. Washington DC: National Institute of Building Sciences. Narayan, S, Beck, M W, Reguero, B G, Losada, I J, van Wesenbeeck, B, Pontee, N, Sanchirico, J N, Carter Ingram, J, Lange, G-M and Burks-Copes, K A. 2016. “The Effectiveness, Costs and Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural and Nature-Based Defences.” PLOS ONE, 11(5): e0154735. ND-GAIN. Country Index. Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, University of Notre Dame. https://gain. nd.edu (accessed February 3, 2022). NOAA. 2022. State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual 2021. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information. Available at: https://www. ncei.noaa.gov (accessed January 29, 2022). Öcal, A. 2019. “Natural Disasters in Turkey: Social and Economic Perspective.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1 (1): 51–61. OECD. OECD Data. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. http://data.oecd.org (accessed March 16, 2022). OECD. 2015. Disaster Risk Financing: A Global Survey of Practices and Challenges. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD. 2016. Turkey Policy Brief. OECD Better Policies Series. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development. OECD. 2017. Multi-Purpose Water Infrastructure. Recommendations to Maximise Economic Benefits. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD. 2019a. Fiscal Resilience to Natural Disasters: Lessons from Country Experiences. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD. 2019b. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Turkey 2019. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development. OECD. 2020. Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2020. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development. OECD. 2021. Green Budgeting in OECD Countries. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OGM. 2021. Forestry Statistics 2021. Ankara. General Directorate of Forestry. Patel, K. 2021. Turkey Experiences Intense Drought. NASA Earth Observatory. https://earthobservatory.nasa. gov (accessed January 30, 2022). Presidency of the Republic of Turkey. 2022. Pre-Accession Economic Reform Program 2022–2024. Ankara. Rao, A, Calderón, A, Silva, V, Martins, L and Paul, N. 2022. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Retrofit Scenarios for Turkey, Exposure Model Development Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis Retrofit Intervention Scenarios. Washington DC: World Bank. Reguero, B G, Beck, M W, Bresch, D N, Calil, J and Meliane, I. 2018. “Comparing the Cost Effectiveness of Nature- based and Coastal Adaptation: A Case Study from the Gulf Coast of the United States.” PLOS ONE, 13(4): e0192132. Rentschler, J and Salhab, M. 2020. People in Harm’s Way: Flood Exposure and Poverty in 189 Countries. Policy Research Working Paper No. 9447. Washington DC: World Bank. Sachs, J, Kroll, C, Lafortune, G, Fuller, G and Woelm, F. 2021. Sustainable Development Report 2021. Cambridge University Press. Source for the number of deaths attributable to the joint effects of household and ambient air pollution in a year per 100,000 population: World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory Data Repository: https://www.who.int/data/gho   Santos, N, Hess, S and Jahdani, T J. 2016. Turkey: Water Along the Food Chain. Towards Water-smart Agrifood Policies: The Case of Red Meat Processing. Rome: FAO Investment Centre. Sims, T and Hübner, A. 2022. “Natural Disasters Cost Insurers $120 Billion in 2021, Munich Re Says.” Reuters. Smith, G R and Bowen, T V. 2022. Adaptive Social Protection: The Delivery Chain and Shock Response. Washington DC: World Bank Group. Statistical Commission of the United Nations, 49th Session. 2018. Country Note of Turkey. Report of the Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/. Sucuoglu, H. 2018. “International Workshop on Advanced Materials and Innovative Systems in Structural Engineering: Seismic Practices. New Improvements in the 2018 Turkish Seismic Code.” In Proceedings of IWAMISSE 2018 the International Workshop on Advanced Materials and Innovative Systems in Structural Engineering: Seismic Practices. 110 REFERENCES Swiss Re. 2018. Risky Cities: Earthquake Resilience in Istanbul. Available at: https://www.swissre.com/. Taheripour, F, Tyner, W E, Sajedinia, E, Aguiar, A, Chepeliev, M, Corong, E, de Lima, C Z and Haqiqi, I. 2020. Water in the Balance: The Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Middle East. Washington DC: World Bank. Tall, A, Lynagh, S, Blanco Vecchi, C, Bardouille, P, Montoya Pino, F, Shabahat, E, Stenek, V, Stewart, F, Power, S, Paladines, C, Neves, P and Kerr, L. 2021 Enabling Private Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience: Current Status, Barriers to Investment and Blueprint for Action. Washington DC: World Bank. TARSIM. 2019. 2019 Annual Report. Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Ministry of Treasury and Finance. TARSIM. 2020. 2020 Annual Report. Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Ministry of Treasury and Finance. TARSIM. 2022. 2021 Annual Report. Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Ministry of Treasury and Finance. Tekinay, A and Guroy, D. 2007. “How Will Climate Change Affect Turkish Fish Production?” Turkey Climate Change Congress Proceedings: 329–334. 11–13 April 2007, Istanbul (in Turkish). The Economist Group. Global Food Security Index (GFSI). http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com (accessed March 14, 2022). The Growth Lab. 2021. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Atlas 6.2. The Growth Lab at Harvard University. https:// atlas.cid.harvard.edu (accessed February 3, 2022). ThinkHazard! https://thinkhazard.org (accessed February 3, 2022). Timperley, J. 2021. “The Broken US$100-billion Promise of Climate Finance—and How to Fix It.” Nature, 598(7881): 400–402. TSKB. 2021. Climate Risk Report on Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. Ankara: Industrial Development Bank of Turkey. TurkStat. 2019. Income and Living Conditions Survey. Ankara: Turkish Statistical Institute. TurkStat. 2022. Turkish Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2020. National Inventory Report for submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ankara: Turkish Statistical Institute. UNDP. 2021. Enhancing Adaptation Action in Turkey, Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level. United Nations Development Programme. UNDP. 2022a. “UNDP Climate Change Adaptation: Turkey”. United Nations Development Programme. https:// www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/europe-and-central-asia/turkey (accessed February 3, 2022). UNDP. 2022b. “Mayors Discussed Local Governments’ Role in Combating Climate Change at the Climate Council.” UNDP Turkey News. United Nations Development Programme. UNDRR. Terminology - Online Glossary. https://www.undrr.org/terminology#R (accessed July 13, 2022). UNDRR and UNU-EHS. 2022. Understanding and Managing Cascading and Systemic Risks: Lessons from COVID-19. Geneva and Bonn: UNDRR and UNU-EHS. UNEP. 2021. Adaptation Gap Report 2021: The Gathering Storm—Adapting to Climate Change in a Post- Pandemic World. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme. UNFCCC. n.d. NDC Registry (interim). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. www4. unfccc.int/ sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx (accessed February 3, 2022). UNFCCC. 2019. Various Approaches to Long-term Adaptation Planning. Adaptation Committee. Bonn: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNFCCC. 2021a. COP26: Update to the NDC Synthesis Report. News article. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available at: https://unfccc.int. UNFCCC. 2021b. Glasgow Climate Pact. Bonn: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNHCR. 2018. Refugee Statistics. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://www.unhcr.org/ refugee- statistics/ (accessed February 17, 2022). UNHCR. n.d. Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Turkey. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Turkey. https://www.unhcr.org/tr/en/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-turkey (accessed January 31, 2022). UNISDR (ed). 2015a. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). Geneva: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. UNISDR. 2015b. “Turkey’s Promise on School Safety.” United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Updates (March 14). https://www.undrr.org/news/turkeys-promise-school-safety. UN Open Data Hub: SDG 3.9.1. United Nations. https://unstats-undesa.opendata.arcgis.com (accessed February 3, 2022). UN. 2019. For Every Dollar Invested in Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Six Dollars Are Saved, Secretary-General Says in Message for Disaster Risk Reduction Day. News article. United Nations. Available at https://press. un.org/en/2019/sgsm19807.doc.htm. UN. 2020. UN E-Government Survey 2020. New York: United Nations. 111 REFERENCES Uzuner, Ç and Dengiz, O. 2020. “Desertification Risk Assessment in Turkey Based on Environmentally Sensitive Areas.” Ecological Indicators, 114: 106295. Vaillancourt, A and Haavisto, I. 2016. “Country Logistics Performance and Disaster Impact.” Disasters, 40(2): 262–283. WHO. International Health Regulations 2020. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int (accessed January 31, 2022). WHO. Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED). World Health Organization. https://www.who.int (accessed September 07, 2022). WHO. e-SPAR. https://extranet.who.int/e-spar (accessed March 15, 2022). WMO. 2021. WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970– 2019). WMO-No. 1267. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. World Bank. ASPIRE: The Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity. https://www.worldbank. org/en/ data/datatopics/aspire (accessed February 3, 2022). World Bank. World Development Indicators: Data Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world- development- indicators (accessed January 31, 2022). World Bank. Worldwide Governance Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide- governance- indicators (accessed February 3, 2022). World Bank. 1999. Turkey Marmara Earthquake Assessment. Report 27380. Ankara: World Bank Turkey Country Office. World Bank. 2015. Turkey’s Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis and the Road Ahead. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2019a. Enterprise Surveys: Turkey 2019 Country Profile. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2019b. Firm Productivity and Economic Growth in Turkey. Country Economic Memorandum. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2019c. Quantifying Climate and Disaster Risks to Critical Infrastructure, Lifelines and Agriculture in Turkey: New Approaches. Building Resilience in Turkey. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2019d. The World Bank Group Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2020a. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2020b. Turkey Water Sector Engagement Note: Water Security Issues and Priorities for Sector Engagement. Final Report. Unpublished. World Bank. 2021a. Climate-Smart Agriculture. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021b. Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID). Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021c. Overlooked: Examining the Impact of Disasters and Climate Shocks on Poverty in the Europe and Central Asia Region. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021d. Turkey Programmatic Public Finance Review: Phase 1. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021e. Turkey Social Assistance Review. Report No: ACS22702. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021f. Unlocking Green Finance in Turkey. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2022. World Bank Next Generation Drought Index: Project Summary. World Bank. Forthcoming. Türkiye Climate Change Institutional Assessment. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2017. The Potential of the Blue Economy: Increasing Long-term Benefits of the Sustainable Use of Marine Resources for Small Island Developing States and Coastal Least Developed Countries. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank Group. 2016. Turkey – Systematic Country Diagnostic: Turkey’s Future Transitions. Report No 112785-TR. Washington DC: World Bank Group. World Bank Group. 2021a. Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025, Supporting Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development. Washington DC: World Bank Group. World Bank Group. 2021b. Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs). Washington DC: World Bank Group. World Bank Group. 2021c. Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness. Investment in Disaster Risk Management in Europe Makes Economic Sense. Background report. Washington DC: World Bank Group. World Bank Group. 2022. Türkiye Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank Group. Forthcoming. Crisis Preparedness Gap Analysis. CPGA Approach Note. WEF. 2017. Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2017. Geneva: World Economic Forum. WEF. 2021. Global Gender Gap Report 2021. Geneva: World Economic Forum. WEF. 2022. Global Risks Report 2022. Geneva: World Economic Forum. 112 REFERENCES WRI. Aqueduct Global Water Risk Mapping Tool. World Resources Institute. www.wri.org/aqueduct (accessed January 13, 2022). Yale University. Global UHI Surface Explorer. https://yceo.yale.edu/research/global-surface-uhi-explorer (accessed February 3, 2022). Yale University. Environmental Performance Index 2020. https://epi.yale.edu (accessed January 31, 2022). Yavaşlı, D D, Tucker, C J and Melocik, K A. 2015. “Change in the Glacier Extent in Turkey During the Landsat Era.” Remote Sensing of Environment, 163: 32–41. 113 REFERENCES Appendix A: Heatmap of the drivers of climate and disaster risks in Türkiye Coastal flood exposure Cyclone exposure Earthquake exposure Extreme heat exposure Landslide exposure River flood exposure Tsunami exposure Urban flood exposure Volcano exposure Water scarcity exposure Wildfire exposure Population exposed to earthquakes Population exposed to floods Population exposed to floods (> Türkiye A&R scorecard ADAPTATION PRINCIPLE 1: Lay the foundations for rapid, robust, and inclusive development lll 1.96 1.1 Increase economic productivity and growth, while keeping buffers for shocks lll 2.20 1.2 Ensure that economic growth is inclusive lll 1.72 ADAPTATION PRINCIPLE 2: Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms lll 1.62 2.1 Assess climate and disaster risks, and make this information available lll 2.00 2.2 Clarify responsibilities and align incentives with A&R objectives lll 1.75 2.3 Facilitate access to technical solutions for resilience through R&D and trade policies lll 1.50 2.4 Ensure financing is available to all, and provide support to the poorest and most vulnerable people lll 1.50 2.5 Facilitate structural change in the economic system lll 1.33 ADAPTATION PRINCIPLE 3: Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical public assets and services lll 1.90 3.1 Identify critical public assets and services lll 1.75 3.2 Design and implement a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems lll 1.57 and public assets 3.3 Revise urban and land use plans to make them risk-informed lll 2.00 3.4 Increase the resilience of the agriculture sector and ensure food security lll 2.00 3.5 Increase the resilience of water infrastructure and water resources management lll 1.80 3.6 Increase the resilience of the health system lll 2.17 3.7 Increase the resilience of the education system lll 2.00 3.8 Increase the resilience of forests and other natural ecosystems lll 1.86 ADAPTATION PRINCIPLE 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural disasters lll 1.88 4.1 Save lives (and money) with hydromet, early warning, and emergency management systems lll 2.11 4.2 Provide all firms and households with risk management instruments lll 1.50 4.3 Develop the insurance sector, building on public-private partnerships lll 1.67 4.4 Build a social protection system and make it responsive to shocks lll 2.25 4.5 Help firms develop BCPs and financial preparedness lll 1.75 4.6 Be prepared to build back better after disasters, with contingency plans and financing lll 2.00 ADAPTATION PRINCIPLE 5: Manage financial and macrofiscal issues lll 1.56 5.1 Include contingent liabilities from natural disasters and environmental shocks in the planning and lll 1.67 budgeting process 5.2 Develop a financial strategy to manage contingent liabilities, combining multiple instruments lll 2.00 5.3 Anticipate and plan for long-term macroeconomic impacts lll 1.33 5.4 Communicate and mitigate the climate and disaster risk exposure of the financial sector lll 1.25 ADAPTATION PRINCIPLE 6: Application: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress lll 1.83 6.1 Create strong institutional and legal framework, with appropriate stakeholder involvement lll 2.00 6.2 Design an A&R strategy with prioritized actions lll 2.50 6.3 Set concrete sector-level targets to guide implementation by line ministries and local governments lll 1.83 6.4 Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks and align them with adaptation lll 1.00 targets 6.5 Allocate appropriate funding to the adaptation strategy lll 1.25 6.6 Track progress over time, and review and revise the strategy lll 1.33 Average rating across all adaptation principles lll 1.79 115 APPENDIX B: A&R SCORECARD Appendix C: Traffic light system The tables in this appendix contain detailed descriptions of the indicators, sources and rating criteria used in this assessment. The indicators presented here form a non-exhaustive list to assess progress toward adaptation and resilience under a whole-of-economy approach in Türkiye. Bottom, middle and top tercile ratings are relative to other OECD countries. The final column in table B indicates data quality (DQ) type, where I = quantitative benchmarking assessment supported by global data or statistics (such as World Development Indicators, OECD Data, and so on); II = qualitative assessment based on national statistics, review of policy documents and reports, websites, literature from different sources including government, World Bank, and OECD analytics, among others; and III = qualitative assessment based on technical/country expert judgement. Source information is under References. TA B L E C . 1 >> Drivers of risk indicators Indicator Low Medium High Notes Source Socioeconomic vulnerability People Poverty rate Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Share of population that is poor, latest year available, measured at World national poverty line Development Indicators Inequality (Gini Index) Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Gini Index measures the extent to which income distribution World (or consumption expenditure) among individuals or households Development deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. 0 represents perfect Indicators equality, 100 implies perfect inequality Mortality rate Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Number of deaths attributable to the joint effects of household and UN Open Data attributed to ambient ambient air pollution in a year per 100,000 population. Rates are Hub: SDG 3.9.1 air pollution age-standardized Forcibly displaced Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Forcibly displaced people as % of total population UNHCR 2018 people Economic sectors Agriculture, forestry, Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Value added or net output of sectors after adding up all outputs and World and fishing (% of GDP) subtracting intermediate inputs Development Indicators Transport network Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Average consumer losses due to longer routes or isolation of routes Koks et al. vulnerability (% of user utility) when 10% of the network becomes unavailable forthcoming (e.g. due to disruptions) Macroeconomy Volatility of per capita Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Standard deviation of real GDP per capita growth 2009–18 IMF WEO GDP growth Database Lack of diversification Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Based on the Economic Complexity Index, a ranking of countries The Growth Lab based on the diversity and complexity of their export basket and a 2019 proxy for economic diversification. High-complexity countries are home to a range of sophisticated, specialized capabilities and can produce a highly diversified set of complex products Current account Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Imports minus exports, average of 2015–19 IMF WEO deficit Database Debt Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Debt as share of GDP, average of 2015–19 IMF WEO Database 116 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM TA B L E C . 2 >> Adaptation and resilience indicators Indicator Low Medium High Notes Source Current probability of natural shocks Flood, river (return 1,000 years / 50 years / 10 years / For probabilistic data, the probability of occurrence is classified as ThinkHazard! period/flood depth) 0.5m 0.5m 0.5m high if the hazard exceeds at any location in the ADM-2 (second order administrative division) unit the damaging intensity threshold Flood, urban (return 1,000 years / 50 years / 10 years / presented under high; the same applies for medium and low for ThinkHazard! period/ flood depth) 0.5m 0.5m 0.5m their respective thresholds. This implies that aggregation at the national level, as has been done for purposes of this report, can in Flood, coastal (return 100 years / 50 years / 0.5m 10 years / 2m ThinkHazard! the most extreme cases result in classifying the entire country as period/ flood depth) 0.5m high when just one ADM-2 unit in a country classified as high. Landslide (annual <3.2km2/year 3.2–7.5km2 / >7.5km2/year ThinkHazard! frequency) year For more level of detail (ADM-1 or ADM-2), see ThinkHazard! https:// thinkhazard.org/en/. Earthquake (return 1,000–2,500 475–500 years 100–250 years ThinkHazard! period/ Peak Ground years / 0.1g / 0.1g / 0.2g While in ThinkHazard!, distinction is made between low and very Acceleration ) low, for purposes of this report, both are aggregated under low. Tsunami (return 2,500 years / 500 years / 1m 100 years / 2m ThinkHazard! period/ coastal 0.5m maximum amplitude) Wildfire (return period/ 30 years / >15 10 years / >20 2 years / >30 ThinkHazard! Canadian Wildfire Index) Volcano (volcanic <3 / more 3–5 / <10,000 >5 / <2,000 ThinkHazard! explosivity index/ last ancient times or years ago years ago known eruption date) unknown Extreme heat 100 years / 20 years / 5 years / >32°C ThinkHazard! (daily maximum <28°C 28–32°C temperature) Water scarcity (return 1,000 years 50 years / 5 years / ThinkHazard! period/ m3capita/year) /≤1,700m3 ≤1,000m3 ≤500m3 Exposure to natural hazards People Population exposed Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Population exposed to a 1-in-100 year flood, as a percentage of Rentschler and to floods total population in 2015 Salhab 2020 Population exposed to Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Population exposed to a 1-in-250 year earthquake, as a percentage GFDRR 2016 earthquakes of total population in 2015 Poor population Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Poor population (<%5.5/day) exposed to 1-in-100-year flood, 0.15m Rentschler and exposed to floods inundation (% of total poor population in 2019) Salhab 2020 Assets Transport network Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Share of transport network exposed to cyclones Hallegatte et al. exposed to cyclones 2019 Transport network Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Share of transport network exposed to floods Hallegatte et al. exposed to floods 2019 Transport network Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Share of transport network exposed to earthquakes Hallegatte et al. exposed to 2019 earthquakes Risk Annual average well- Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Total AAWL from floods, cyclones, earthquakes, and tsunamis in Hallegatte et al. being losses (AAWL) US$PPP (% of GDP) 2017 Annual average Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Total AAAL from earthquakes (% of GDP) UNISDR 2015a asset losses (AAAL), earthquake AAAL, cyclone Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Total AAAL from cyclones (% of GDP) UNISDR 2015a AAAL, tsunami Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Total AAAL from tsunamis (% of GDP) UNISDR 2015a AAAL, flood Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Total AAAL from floods (% of GDP) UNISDR 2015a AAAL, total Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Total AAAL from floods, cyclones, earthquakes, and tsunamis (% UNISDR 2015a of GDP) Climate change impacts in 2050 Future population Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Population exposed to annual coastal floods due to sea level rise, Kulp and Strauss exposed to sea level as a share of actual population, is reported as a percentage and 2019 rise and frequent reflective of the population in 2050, determined by the minimum coastal floods exposure scenario (RCP4.5) Additional people Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Additional population exposed to annual coastal floods due to sea Kulp and Strauss exposed to coastal level rise, as a share of actual population, reported as a percentage 2019 floods and reflective of the 2050 population, determined by the maximum exposure scenario (RCP8.5) Extreme heat days Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Annual increase in number of extreme heat days (>35°C) for the CCKP (>35°C) 90th percentiles of all models (RCP 4.5) between 2040–59 Soil moisture change Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Relative changes in soil moist (%) at different global warming Climate Analytics levels compared to the reference period 1986–2006, based on the RCP4.5 scenario Wheat yield change Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Relative changes in wheat yield (%) at different global warming Climate Analytics levels compared to the reference period 1986–2006, based on the RCP4.5 scenario 117 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Adaptation Principle 1: Lay the foundations for adaptation through rapid, robust, and inclusive development Priority Action 1.1. Increase economic productivity and growth, while keeping buffers for shocks Economic growth 5-year GDP growth rate per capita (2015–19 average, excluding Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I 2020 due to COVID-19) Development Indicators Adjusted net savings Changes in a country’s wealth (net national savings plus education Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I expenditure minus energy depletion, mineral depletion, net forest Development depletion, and carbon dioxide and particulate emissions damage) Indicators Macroeconomic Composite index of inflation, fiscal deficit-to GDP, external debt-to- Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile IMF WEO I stability GDP, and current account deficit-to-GDP, using 2015–19 averages. Database After normalizing each variable between 0–1 using all the world’s countries as reference group, all variables are added up. The higher the index, the lower the macroeconomic stability Investment or gross Ratio of total investment to GDP, both in current local currency. Total Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile IMF WEO I capital formation value of gross fixed capital formation and changes in inventories and Database acquisitions less disposals of valuables for a unit or sector Economic Based on the GGD Faculty of Economics and Business’ Penn World Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile GGDC I productivity: Total Table (v.10.0), TFP at constant national prices (normalized to 1 in Factor Productivity 2017 for all countries) is computed using the growth rate of real GDP (TFP) Index from national accounts data with the growth rates of capital stock and labor force, to obtain productivity growth rates for each country Priority Action 1.2. Ensure that economic growth is inclusive Poverty rate Share of people whose income falls below the national poverty line Top tercile Middle tercile Bottom tercile World I Development Indicators Poverty headcount Change in poverty headcount in the last 10 years (2010–19, Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I change excluding 2020 due to COVID) Development Indicators Shared prosperity Annualized real per capita consumption growth rate difference Negative No difference, Positive Turkstat 2019 I between poorest 40% and total population (2015–19 average) difference equal growth difference Unemployment rate Number of unemployed persons as a percentage of total number of Top tercile Middle tercile Bottom tercile World I persons in the labour force, based on national estimates Development Indicators Overall governance Measures voice and accountability; political stability and absence of Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Worldwide I (World Governance violence; government effectiveness; regulatory quality; rule of law; Governance Index) and control of corruption Indicators Human Capital Index Calculates the contributions of health and education-to-worker Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I productivity, with scores ranging from 0—1 measuring the Development productivity as a future worker of a child born today relative to the Indicators benchmark of full health and complete education Women’s Benchmarks the evolution of gender-based gaps in economic Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile WEF 2021 I empowerment (Global participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and Gender Gap Index) survival, and political empowerment. The smaller the index, the larger the gap Access to basic water Share of population with access to basic drinking water services <75% 75–90% >90% World I Development Indicators Access to safe Share of population using safely managed sanitation services and a <75% 75–90% >90% World I sanitation hand-washing facility with soap and water Development Indicators Access to electricity Share of population with access to electricity <75% 75–90% >90% World I Development Indicators Access to universal Coverage index based on tracer interventions including <75% 75–90% >90% World I health coverage reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health, infectious Development diseases, noncommunicable diseases, and service capacity and Indicators access Access to ICT UN Telecommunications Infrastructure Index. Number of active <75% 75–90% >90% UN 2020 I mobile-broadband subscriptions, internet users, mobile subscribers, and fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants Access to primary and Average of primary and secondary school enrollment (net %) <75% 75–90% >90% World I secondary education Development Indicators Access to financial Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money- Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I services service provider (% of population ages 25+) Development Indicators Access to public Availability of policies and programs to support the targeted No or limited Some policies Policies and UNHCR n.d. II services for refugees provision of public services (access to clean water, health, and policies and and programs programs are education services) for refugees programs exist, but in place and coverage and have adequate adequacy can coverage be improved Social protection Coverage of social protection and labor programs (% of population) Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World Bank I coverage ASPIRE Social spending Social expenditure (cash benefits, direct in-kind goods and services, Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile OECD Data I tax breaks with social purposes) on households (% of GDP) Socioeconomic Capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on Top tercile Middle tercile Bottom tercile Hallegatte et I resilience welfare. Calculated as ratio of asset losses to well-being losses: the al. 2017 lower the rate, the higher the well-being losses in relation to asset losses. Poor people typically experience much higher well-being losses compared to their asset losses 118 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Adaptation Principle 2: Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms Priority Action 2.1. Assess climate and disaster risks, and make this information available Hydromet data Weather and hydrological observation stations produce hydromet Hydromet Data are Data are MoEUCC II availability and observations for different rainfall regimes and timeseries that are data are not available for available 2018b completeness long enough to produce probabilistic hazard maps (e.g. availability of available some locations, for multiple a baseline). This information is available to the public for free. limited rainfall locations, regimes, and different on request/for rainfall regimes, a fee and publicly available on a web platform High-resolution DTM High-resolution and accurate DTM and/or point cloud data are High-resolution High-resolution High-resolution Expert III data coverage and complete (measured by share of country covered) and available to DTM data are data cover data cover judgement availability the public for free not available <60% of the >60% of the country and are country and available for are publicly a fee available on a web platform National-scale hazard Availability and completeness of national-scale hazard maps for all National-scale Some national- National- AFAD 2020 II map availability and relevant hazards and the whole country in an open GIS format (e.g. hazard maps scale hazard scale maps completeness metadata are available and complete) for relevant maps are are publicly hazards are not available within available on a available government, web platform and on request/ for all relevant for a fee to the hazards public Local-scale hazard Availability and completeness of local-scale (1:10.000 or larger) There are no Maps are Maps are Consultations III maps availability and hazard maps (for all relevant hazards) in an open GIS format (e.g. local-scale available for publicly completeness metadata are available and complete) and their coverage hazard maps some hazards available on a or locations and web platform to the public for all relevant on request/ for hazards a fee and priority locations Local-scale climate Climate change scenarios are available at relevant scales for Local-scale Local-scale Local-scale MoEUCC II change scenarios subnational and local decision making climate change climate change climate change 2018b scenarios are scenarios are in scenarios are not available development or available outdated Data platform A data platform provides easy access to hazard and climate A data platform A data A complete AFAD 2020 II providing easy access change scenario data as well as past and current, small- and large- is not available platform is in data platform to climate and disaster scale events, alongside global platforms such as ThinkHazard!, development is publicly information DesInventar or EM-DAT. or not kept up available and up to date to date Community The government has conducted campaigns and projects to No community Some Significant MoEUCC II awareness of hazard raise awareness among community members about climate and awareness community community 2018b and vulnerability disaster hazards, risks, and vulnerability campaigns are awareness awareness levels carried out campaigns are campaigns carried out, have extensive with limited coverage coverage Climate and disaster Climate and disaster risk assessment for the main economic Risks have not Risks are being Risks have MoEUCC II risk assessment sectors are complete and publicly available been assessed assessed been assessed, 2018b for main economic potential Frankfurt sectors opportunities School of identified and Finance & information Management is publicly 2018 available World Bank 2019c Priority Action 2.2. Clarify responsibilities and align incentives with A&R objectives Institutional Responsibilities and liabilities for disaster risk management and Not assigned Assigned but Assigned and Expert III responsibilities for climate change have been assigned to relevant institutions not effectively effectively judgement disaster and climate implemented implemented risk management Residual risk target Defines acceptable levels of risk and can guide investment Residual risk Target Target levels Hallegatte et II level decisions to keep residual risk below the target level. These target levels levels are are established al. 2020 targets can be made public, e.g. through maps of residual flood have not been established, and account risks that account for existing protection infrastructure established but do not for all relevant account for current and all relevant future hazards current and future hazards Private sector CCAPs Plans are developed for major private actors and industries or No CCAPs are Some isolated CCAPs are Expert III associations. By preparing CCAPs, the private sector can act in place or pilot CCAPs systematically judgement against potential physical changes and manage climate change are in place developed by risks major private sector actors Companies integrate The private sector considers adaptation and related risks in No A framework A framework World Bank II A&R in sustainability sustainability risk reporting (e.g. Global Reporting Initiative) and sustainability is in place but that considers 2021f risk reporting climate change adaptation is becoming an integrated part of risk reporting not widely climate and environmental and social risk reporting framework is applied/ does disaster risk in place not consider is in place and climate and commonly disaster risk applied Priority Action 2.3. Facilitate access to technical solutions for resilience through R&D and trade policies Public R&D spending Environmentally related government R&D budget (% of total Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile OECD Data I government R&D) as a proxy for climate change adaptation and resilience R&D spending 119 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Private sector R&D Share of firms that spend on R&D as a proxy for innovation that Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World Bank I spending can enable solutions for climate change adaptation and resilience 2019a Innovativeness of the Share of firms that introduced a new product of service as a Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World Bank I private sector proxy for innovation that can enable solutions for climate change 2019a adaptation and resilience Resilience tariff Average tariff applied to imports of resilience-related High Medium to low 0 tariffs for World Bank II technologies (in general) resilience- 2019a related World Bank technology 2021d imports Priority Action 2.4. Ensure financing is available to all, and provide support to the poorest and most vulnerable people Most vulnerable Most vulnerable populations and communities have been Populations There are Vulnerable AFAD 2020 II populations and identified through exposure and vulnerability assessments, and efforts to populations communities poverty maps, socioeconomic census, or other means communities identify and identified have not been the most communities identified vulnerable have been populations identified and communities Access to financial Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile- Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I services for the money-service provider, bottom 40% (% of population ages 15+) Development bottom 40% Indicators Social protection Coverage of social safety net programs for the poorest quintile Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I coverage for the (% of population) Development poorest quintile Indicators Job opportunities for Availability of policies and programs to provide sustainable and No/few Some policies Policies and World Bank II refugees decent job opportunities to help refugees integrate into host policies and and programs programs are 2015 communities programs provide job in place and provide opportunities have adequate decent job but coverage coverage opportunities and adequacy for refugees can be improved Priority Action 2.5. Facilitate structural change in the economic system Diversification of the Ranks countries based on the diversity and complexity of their Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile The Growth I economy (Economic export basket, as a proxy for economic diversification. High- Lab 2021 Complexity Index) complexity countries have a range of sophisticated, specialized capabilities and are can produce a highly diversified set of complex products Strategy to manage Sunset sectors and activities are identified and a strategy to Sunset sectors Sunset sectors Sunset sectors World Bank II the decline of sunset manage the impacts is in place (job retraining, social protection, not identified; identified but identified and 2019b sectors etc.) no strategy is there is no a strategy is IFC and EBRD in place strategy to in place and 2013 manage their published MoD 2019 decline Strategy to support Economic sectors and activities that may benefit from the Sunrise Sunrise Sunrise OECD 2016 II the development of physical (e.g., increase in agricultural yields or suitable areas) sectors not sectors sectors World Bank sunrise sectors and transition (e.g., due to economic structure change) impacts identified identified but identified and 2019a of climate change are identified; and a strategy to support and there is no a strategy to maximize the benefits is in place strategy to support them support them is in place and published Adaptation Principle 3: Adapt urban and land use plans and protect critical public assets and services Priority Action 3.1. Identify critical public assets and services Critical assets A geolocated inventory of public assets and infrastructure, There is no Inventories Inventory Expert III and infrastructure including health and education buildings is in place and up to date inventory exist, but they exists and is judgement identified of critical are incomplete complete and assets and or out of date up to date infrastructure Vulnerability of The vulnerability of critical assets and infrastructure has been Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability Expert III critical assets and assessed through exposure and vulnerability analyses of critical of critical of critical judgement infrastructure assets and assets and assets and assessed infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure has not been is partially is assessed assessed assessed and up to date Logistics Perceptions of logistics based on efficiency of customs Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World I Performance Index clearance, quality of trade- and transport-related infrastructure, Development ease of arranging competitively priced shipments, quality of Indicators logistics services, ability to track and trace consignments, and frequency with which shipments reach the consignee within the scheduled time. The index ranges from 1 to 5, with a higher score representing better performance. Energy Architecture Composite index of energy system performance, including Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile WEF 2017 I Performance Index energy system efficiency, delivery, access, and environmental performance Priority Action 3.2. Design and implement a government-wide strategy to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems and public assets Resilient Increase in annual investments needed to make infrastructure Top tercile Middle tercile Bottom tercile Hallegatte et I infrastructure more resilient by 2030 (% of baseline investment costs without al. 2019 investment needs resilience considerations) Long-term resilient A strategy to manage critical infrastructure and services is No strategy or A strategy or A strategy or Expert III infrastructure plan approved and published plan in place plan is being plan is in place, judgement developed or complete with it exists but resilience is outdated considerations or does not and up to date consider resilience 120 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Resilient An fully operational agency with a clear operational mandate Agency is not Agency Agency is Expert III infrastructure agency coordinates resilience of critical assets and infrastructure in place and is under in place and judgement responsibilities development operational have not been or mandated responsibilities are clearly mandated Infrastructure An adequate maintenance budget for critical infrastructure is in The The The MoD 2019 II maintenance budget place maintenance maintenance maintenance budget is budget is budget is inadequate partially adequate adequate Asset management An operational asset management system exists and includes No asset A system is in A full system MoD 2019 II system an inventory of critical infrastructure, its condition, exposure management place but does is in place, to hazards, and maintenance history and evidence-based system is in not contain all regularly maintenance plans place elements or is updated and out of date used to carry out preventive maintenance Construction Construction standards for infrastructure are established, Construction Locally Locally Expert III standards for accounting for local hazards and criticality, and an enforcement standards do relevant relevant judgement infrastructure mechanism is in place not account for construction construction local hazards standards standards are and criticality are in place, in place and and are not but are not an efficient enforced effectively enforcement enforced mechanism ensures most infrastructure is up to standard Construction Construction standards and building codes are updated, Building Locally Locally Ilki and Celep II standards and codes accounting for local hazards and criticality, and an enforcement standards and relevant relevant 2012 for buildings mechanism is in place codes are not construction construction updated, do standards standards are not consider and building in place and local hazards codes are in an efficient or criticality, place, but an enforcement and there is effectively mechanism no effective enforced ensures most enforcement buildings are up to standard Priority Action 3.3. Revise urban and land use plans to make them risk-informed Institutional and Clear national urban and land use planning legislation requires Legislation is A framework A framework MoEU 2010 II regulatory framework the preparation and regular updating of plans using multi-hazard not in place is in place is in place and MoAF 2016 for urban and land use risk information, participatory approaches, and linkages across but key A&R incorporates planning administrative boundaries and socioeconomic development elements are key elements plans, and assigns responsibilities to relevant agencies missing of A&R Identifying areas that Areas that are impossible or too costly to protect against climate Areas are not Areas Areas are World Bank, II are at risk change impacts are identified and communicated to the public identified are partly identified and forthcoming identified communicated to the public Number of qualified There are enough qualified planners with technical capacity to There are There are The number Expert III planners per capita incorporate disaster risk into planning. The benchmark for an insufficient enough of trained judgement adequate number of qualified planners is 1 per 30,000 people (untrained) planners, but planners is planners they do not adequate all have the necessary training Quality of urban plans Urban plans are in place, up to date, and aligned with national Plans are not in Some cities All/major Expert III objectives, consider disaster risk, are accompanied by place have plans cities have an judgement implementation plans, and communities and stakeholders are or plans are urban plan and involved in planning in place but incorporate lack key A&R key A&R elements elements Financing for Budget is available for implementing urban plans, including to Financing for Financing for Financing is Expert III implementing urban include DRM measures implementation implementation available and judgement plans is insufficient is sufficient, but includes DRM there is no DRM budget budget Priority Action 3.4. Increase the resilience of the agriculture sector and ensure food security Food vulnerability Composite indicator capturing a food system’s vulnerability Top tercile Middle tercile Lower tercile ND-GAIN I to climate change, in terms of production, demand, nutrition, population, etc., including projected change of cereal yields, projected population growth, food import dependency, rural population, agriculture capacity, and child malnutrition. The lower the score, the higher the food security. CSA strategy A CSA strategy or plan has been developed that addresses the Climate risks Climate risks Climate risks MoEU 2011 II most prominent hazards and risks and assigns responsibility for and impacts and impacts and impacts Bagherzadeh identified adaptation actions for the sector have been have been and have not been assessed but a assessed and a Shigemitsu assessed and comprehensive comprehensive 2021 there is no CSA CSA strategy CSA strategy strategy and/ and/or action and/or action or action plan plan is either plan is in place, in place not in place or up to date, outdated and with clear responsibilities 121 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Agriculture EWS An EWS is in place that produces and disseminates trend and An EWS is not AN EWS is in An EWS is MoEUCC II forecast information on crop and livestock price information to in place place but out in place and 2018b producers, weather and climate forecasts, and pests/disease of date or not applied widely information widely and/ and effectively or effectively applied Agriculture insurance An agricultural insurance system is in place and includes climate There is no A system is in A system is in MoEUCC II hazards that cover a large share of all producers system in place but omits place, includes 2018b place main climate main climate TARSIM hazards and/ hazards and 2019, 2020 or has low has high Bagherzadeh coverage coverage and Shigemitsu 2021 Ex-post assessment An up-to-date repository of damages and losses from droughts A repository is A repository is A repository Bagherzadeh II of drought impacts exists and is available to the private sector not in place in place but not is in place, up and available to the to date and Shigemitsu private sector available to the 2021 private sector Public agricultural Agricultural R&D policy commits to climate change research There is no Commitment There is strong MoAF 2016a II research expenditure and a mechanism that promotes collaborative research among commitment to climate commitment multiple stakeholders is in place and in use to climate change to climate change research is not change research prominent; research; effective effective collaborative collaborative mechanisms mechanisms are not in place are in place Agricultural land Share of arable land equipped for irrigation (%) (3-year average) Bottom tercile Middle tercile Upper tercile FAOSTAT I irrigated Priority Action 3.5. Increase the resilience of water infrastructure and WRM WRM strategy Climate change adaptation considerations are integrated into Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation MoEU 2011 II incorporating climate existing and new WRM strategies, plans and legislation considerations considerations considerations MoEUCC change considerations are not are partially are fully 2018b integrated integrated integrated Dedicated WRM A dedicated WRM agency or agencies are in place with functional An agency is An agency is An agency is MoEUCC II agencies coordination mechanism on WRM across the main subsectors— not in place in place but in place with 2018b water supply and sanitation (WSS), WRM, and irrigation has limited effective World Bank functional functional 2020b coordination coordination mechanisms mechanisms across water subsectors National water NWIS includes regularly updated WSS infrastructure inventory NWIS is not in NWIS is in NWIS is in World Bank II information system and is used in decision making on WRM across the water place place but place and used 2020b subsectors (e.g. water supply and sanitation, irrigation) out of date in decision or not used making effectively in decision making Water productivity Calculated as GDP in constant prices, divided by annual total Bottom tercile Middle tercile Upper tercile World I water withdrawal (constant 2015 US$ GDP/m3 of total freshwater Development withdrawal) and is a measure of water security for high-value Indicators economic sectors Untreated water Share of residential and industrial wastewater that is discharged >25% 25–10% <10% MoEUCC II discharge untreated to natural water bodies 2018a World Bank 2020b Priority Action 3.6. Increase the resilience of the health system IHR average score Average of the scores recorded for the 13 capacities assessed Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile WHO IHR I under the WHO IHR in the SPAR. These encompass the capacities needed to detect, assess, notify, report, and respond to public health risk and acute events of domestic and international concern Health care Health care expenditure as a percentage of GDP Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile WHO GHED I expenditure Health sector A national health sector emergency response plan is in place and No plan is in A plan is under A plan is in MoH 2021 II emergency response up to date place development place and up to plan or in place but date out of date Health risk Established and functioning health risk communication IHR score <21 IHR score = IHR score >61 WHO IHR I communication mechanisms exist, including a National Risk Communications 21–61 Plan for Health Emergencies. Based the WHO's IHR capacity #10. The thresholds for the indicator ratings are the same as those applied by the WHO IHR Surge demand health Number of health workers is adequate to meet surge demand Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile OECD Data I capacity in emergency situations. The WHO recommends 4.45 doctors, nurses, and midwives per 1,000 population for operational routine services, plus a 30% surge capacity and 1 field epidemiologist per 200,000 people Medical Availability of medical countermeasures stockpiles (i.e. vaccines, Stockpile is not Stockpile Stockpile is WHO e-spar II countermeasures therapeutics, and diagnostics) for national use during public available is available available and stockpiles health emergencies but there includes clear are no clear procurement procurement rules rules 122 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Priority Action 3.7. Increase the resilience of the education system Disaster-proof Share of schools that are disaster-proof <40% of 40–80% of >80% of UNISDR I schools schools are schools are schools are 2015b disaster-proof disaster-proof disaster-proof Operational standards Operational standards for the alternative use of schools as Standards are Standards Standards are AFAD 2022 II for use of schools as shelters during emergency situations are in place not in place are under in place and up shelters development to date or in place but out of date Safe and continued Education sector plans and guidelines include DRM measures, Education Education Education Expert III learning environment education continuity plans are in place, and these documents are sector plans sector plans sector plans judgement up to date and guidelines and guidelines and guidelines do not include include DRM include DRM DRM measures measures but measures and continuity continuity plans are not plans are in in place or place and up to outdated date Resources to enable Share of households that have access to a computer at home Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile OECD Data I remote learning A&R included in the An age-specific climate change adaptation and DRM curriculum Curriculum is Curriculum is Curriculum is Consultations III education curriculum is in place and teachers are trained with technical and not in place not in place but in place and pedagogical skills to raise thorough disaster awareness and and teachers some efforts widely applied; deliver distance education have not been are underway teachers are trained trained Priority Action 3.8. Increase the resilience of forests and other natural ecosystems Use of NBS for A&R A strategy or specific regulations regarding the use of NbS to There is no Strategy/ Strategy/ MoEU 2011 II increase climate and disaster resilience has been approved and strategy/ regulation regulation is published regulation in is partially in place and place developed, adequately outdated, or budgeted not adequately for and budgeted implemented for and implemented Forests and climate Strategy is developed and implemented to incorporate climate There is no Strategy Strategy is MoEU 2011 II change strategy change in forest management and planning, based on a sectoral strategy in is partially in place and vulnerability assessment, and includes developing options that place developed, adequately facilitate adaptation of natural ecosystems to climate change outdated, or budgeted impacts with clearly assigned responsibilities to relevant inadequately for and agencies budgeted for/ implemented implemented Blue economy Strategy and/or action plan is in place and up to date to enable There is no Strategy/plan Strategy is MoEU 2011 II strategy the sustainable, resilient, and inclusive management of marine strategy/ is partially in place and and coastal resources, considering the effects of climate change action plan in developed, adequately on coastal areas based on vulnerability studies place outdated, or budgeted not adequately for and budgeted for/ implemented implemented Natural capital SEEA framework is implemented to keep track of the quantity SEAA is not Efforts are SEEA Statistical II accounting and quality of natural capital in the country adopted being made framework Commission but SEEA is not is being 2018 fully integrated implemented into national and integrated accounts into national accounts Land degradation Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area (%) Top tercile Middle tercile Bottom tercile Sachs et al. I 2021 Biodiversity Habitat Composite indicator assessing countries’ actions toward Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Yale University I Index retaining natural ecosystems and protecting the full range of Environmental biodiversity within their borders, including terrestrial biome Performance protection (weighted for national and global rarity of biomes), Index MPAs, Protected Areas Representativeness Index, Species Habitat Index, Species Protection Index, and Biodiversity Habitat Index. A score closer to 100 indicates better performance across all indicators. Ecosystem Services Composite indicator recognizing the important services Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile Yale University I Index ecosystems provide to human and environmental well-being, Environmental including carbon sequestration and storage, biodiversity habitat, Performance nutrient cycling, and coastal protection, with three indicators to Index evaluate the loss of tree cover, grassland, and wetland. A score closer to 100 indicates better performance across all indicators. Adaptation Principle 4: Help firms and people manage residual risks and natural disasters Priority Action 4.1. Save lives (and money) with hydromet, early warning, and emergency management systems Daily weather Daily weather forecasts produced by the hydromet agency and Agency does Agency Agency MoEUCC II forecasts easy-to-communicate alert system in place not produce produces produces 2018b weather weather daily weather AFAD 2019 forecasts forecasts forecasts MoD 2019 but not daily/ in easy-to- in easy-to- communicate communicate formats formats Impact-based IBF provides the information needed to act before disasters IBF is not used The country IBF is well Expert III forecasting to minimize the socioeconomic costs of weather and climate has started established judgement hazards. The indicator assesses the level of development and using IBF and application of IBF approaches functioning 123 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ EWS for natural An effective EWS for climate extremes and relevant natural EWS for the EWS exist for EWS exist MoEUCC II hazards hazards is in place, including effective communication channels main natural some hazards; for all major 2018b between institutions and with the target population hazards are not communication hazards and AFAD 2019 in place systems exist effective MoD 2019 but are not communication effective systems are in place Early warning Early warning message recipients are efficiently notified and take The lack A multichannel A multichannel MoEUCC II communication and notice of the warning on time of mass dissemination dissemination 2018b dissemination communication approach approach AFAD 2019 channels for increases reaches MoD 2019 disseminating capability the entire information to reach population and limits reach the entire can geotarget population warnings EP&R management EP&R legislation, regulation, strategies, and plans exist, and There is Some Appropriate AFAD 2019 II system there are clear government and private sector accountabilities to no EP&R legislation, national ensure public safety service delivery and resilience management regulation, legislation, system strategies, regulation, and plans strategies, exist but need and plans improvement/ exist and are are not implemented implemented effectively effectively EP&R training A formal EP&R training program exists for all involved in There is no There is no A formal AFAD 2019 II emergency response, which establishes the required skillset EP&R training formal EPR EP&R training and experience and is subject to evaluation and review to ensure program training program ongoing improvement of the training program program; ad with all key hoc trainings elements is in are provided place Emergency service Measured by number of emergency medical service units, trained There is There is some There is AFAD 2020 II and shelter capacity health emergency professionals, number of drills performed, and insufficient capacity, sufficient the availability of modern, well-kept. and sufficient emergency capacity but it can be capacity response equipment and shelters improved Effective crisis A coordination mechanism is in place between the various There is no Mechanism is Mechanism is AFAD 2019 II response coordination preparedness actors in key government agencies, including the mechanism in in place but is in place and mechanism ministries of interior, social protection, health, agriculture and place not effective effectively finance used Community Existence of up-to-date community emergency response plans There are no Few The most Expert III emergency response with broad coverage community communities at-risk judgement plans disaster have plans communities response plans in place and have plans these are not in place systematically and these revised are revised systematically Priority Action 4.2. Provide all firms and households with risk management instruments National strategy for A comprehensive national strategy for managing residual climate Not in place In place but In place and Expert III managing residual and natural disaster risks is prepared, approved, operationalized, or not publicly outdated or effectively judgement climate and disaster and regularly updated available not effectively implemented risks implemented Financial instruments Degree to which people are covered by financial instruments Financial Instruments Instruments World II uptake to cope with (insurance, social protection, access to emergency borrowing, instruments are in place but are in place Development shocks remittances, sufficient savings) to cope with shocks are generally uptake is low with sufficient Indicators lacking uptake AFAD 2020 OECD Data Priority Action 4.3. Develop the insurance sector, building on public-private partnerships Non-life insurance Average non-life insurance premium to GDP between the Bottom tercile Middle tercile Upper tercile IMF Climate I penetration years 2008–17. Non-life insurance includes policies for people, Change property, and from disasters Indicators Dashboard Private sector Degree to which insurance schemes are in place that increase the Insurance Insurance Insurance Expert III disaster risk insurance resilience of the private sector (e.g. farmers’ insurance against schemes are schemes are schemes are judgement climate change impacts, fire, or earthquake risk insurance) not in place in place but in place with uptake is low sufficient uptake Building stock Dwelling/building stock insurance is in place, covering losses to Insurance is Insurance is in Insurance OECD 2015 II insurance buildings from natural disasters not in place place, but with is in place low coverage with enough coverage Priority Action 4.4. Build a social protection system and make it responsive to shocks Social registry Social registry coverage is extensive (including potential Registry Registry Registry Expert III coverage and beneficiaries in case of scale-up) and targets high-risk covers a small covers a covers (close judgement targeting households share of the significant to) the entire population/ share of the population, does not target population including high-risk and targets high-risk households high-risk households households 124 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Interoperable social SP and DRM information systems are interoperable (including There is no There is Information Expert III protection (SP) and those used for postdisaster household assessment data data sharing some data systems are judgement DRM information collection), risk-informed, and used to inform DRM actions (e.g. between social sharing, but interoperable systems risk maps use social protection data on vulnerability) protection and very limited and risk- DRM interoperability informed and DRM actions are informed by social protection data Multiple SP delivery Multiple and accessible benefit delivery mechanisms (such as There is a There is some Multiple and Expert III mechanisms manual cash transfer systems (over the counter, electronic, or via single method flexibility in accessible judgement mobile phone payments) help facilitate adaptation to the post- delivery post-shock mechanisms shock environment and choice of beneficiary mechanism, benefit help facilitate with no delivery post-shock post-shock adaptation adaptability and choice of beneficiary Adaptive social Existing SP programs (cash transfers, public works, etc.) SP programs SP programs SP programs Smith and II protection (ASP) integrate climate and disaster risk and include aspects to are not are adaptive are adaptive Bowen 2022 increase resilience, such as contingent plans to scale up social adaptive but no and contingent protection systems allowing for adaptive social protection contingent plans allow for adjustments in response to shocks plans are in scale up place Priority Action 4.5. Help firms develop BCPs and financial preparedness Firms with BCPs Firms have assessed risks from natural hazards and climate No/few firms Some firms in Most firms in Business for II change and developed BCPs to hedge against risks and increase in vulnerable the vulnerable the vulnerable Goals 2020 preparedness sectors have sectors have sectors have BCPs BCPs BCPs Access to finance for Share of firms identifying access to finance as a constraint Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile World Bank II firms to their business. Used as a proxy for access to finance for 2021f adaptation due to the lack of more specific data Generator ownership Share of firms that own a generator Bottom tercile Middle tercile Upper tercile World Bank I 2019a Revenue lost due to Average losses due to electrical outages (% of annual sales) Upper tercile Middle tercile Bottom tercile World Bank I outages among firms 2019a Priority Action 4.6. Be prepared to build back better after disasters, with contingency plans and financing Resilient recovery Resilient recovery and reconstruction principles and guidelines There are no Principles/ Principles/ Expert III and reconstruction are in place, including enhanced standards for resilience principles or guidelines guidelines are judgement principles and guidelines in are in place, in place with guidelines place without enhanced enhanced standards for standards for resilience resilience Emergency Updated annual or multi-annual procurement plans with disaster There are no Plans are Emergency Expert III procurement planning response provision are included in the annual budget, disaster plans in place in place but procurement judgement and procedures emergency procurement procedures, and accompanying lack detailed plans and documents and templates—standard operating procedures, procedures/are procedures handbooks, user guides, or other manuals—with instructions for not effectively are in place procurement in postdisaster situations applied and effectively applied Reconstruction time Average time to rebuild 75% of assets destroyed in the aftermath >5 years 1–5 years <1 year World Bank II of a 200-year earthquake event 2021c Adaptation Principle 5: Manage financial and macrofiscal issues Priority Action 5.1. Include contingent liabilities from natural disasters and environmental shocks in the planning and budgeting process Climate and disaster Fiscal risks from climate change and natural disasters are Risks are not Risks are Risks are World Bank II risks are assessed and assessed and reflected in fiscal risk statements and fiscal policies assessed/ assessed assessed and 2021d considered in fiscal included in but are not reflected in policies fiscal risk considered in fiscal policies statements fiscal policies and risk and risk statements statements Contingent liabilities Explicit and implicit contingent liabilities (including risk to public Liabilities are Liabilities Liabilities are World Bank II are quantified and assets and emergency and SP spending needs) are assessed and not assessed are assessed assessed and 2021d included in budget included in budget documents and not but not systematically documents included in the systematically included in the budget included in the budget budget Institutional The central finance agency has clearly assigned powers/authority Agency has Agency has Agency has Government II arrangements for during states of emergency to enhance the management no or limited authority clear granted of Türkiye public financial of public finances as needed to expedite disaster response, authority and but duties, authority 2009, 2011 management during including clearly defined coordination mechanisms with the coordination activities, and and defined emergencies national disaster management agency coordination coordination with national mechanisms agency are with national unclear agency Priority Action 5.2. Develop a financial strategy to manage contingent liabilities, combining multiple instruments National climate and DRF needs are assessed and a national climate and DRF strategy There is no Strategy is not Strategy is in Expert III DRF strategy is in place to manage contingent liabilities, including alternative strategy in in place but place, including judgement risk instruments to allow immediate increase of financial place some financial layered response capacity against natural hazards and better protect instruments financial fiscal balances are operational instruments 125 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Use of climate and The country uses several climate and DRF instruments, including Climate Some climate All relevant Expert III DRF instruments budgetary instruments (reserve fund specially designated for and DRF and DRF instruments judgement disaster-related expenditures, general contingency budgets), instruments instruments are adopted contingent financing instruments (contingency credit lines, are not used are used and part of a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Options (Cat-DDOs) and national DRF market-based instruments (catastrophe bonds/swaps, strategy parametric insurance, or sector-specific instruments that complement ASP) Emergency budget Clear emergency budget guidelines exist, including for recurrent Emergency Emergency Emergency Government II allocation low-severity events such as localized floods, storms, or landslides budget budget budget of Türkiye reallocation is reallocation is reallocation is 2021 not applied applied ad hoc systematically without clear applied and guidelines or guided by clear mechanisms guidelines and mechanism Process to manage Process in place to effectively and efficiently manage inflow There is no Process is in Process World Bank II ex-post financial of international aid in case of major disasters, including using process to place but can is in place, 2021d assistance inflow existing financial instruments to coordinate delivery manage inflow be improved and internal of international to enhance delivery aid efficiency mechanism and flexibility is flexible and of internal efficient delivery Priority Action 5.3. Anticipate and plan for long-term macroeconomic impacts Proportion of tax Share of tax revenue contributions originating from sectors that Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable World Bank II revenues from high- are highly vulnerable to climate and disaster risks sectors’ tax sectors’ tax sectors’ tax 2021d vulnerability sectors contribution contribution contribution is high, posing is somewhat is low, posing a significant high, posing a minimum risk for a moderate risk for government risk for government revenue government revenue revenue Long-term plan to A long-term plan to diversify tax revenues away from climate and There is no A plan exists A plan is in MoTF 2021 II diversify tax revenues disaster-vulnerable sectors is developed and in place long-term plan but does not place to diversify tax explicitly revenues consider the most vulnerable sectors Debt sustainability Climate and disaster impacts are included in debt sustainability Debt Assessments Assessments World Bank II or financial sector assessment or financial sector assessment program sustainability somewhat considers 2021d assessment program or financial consider climate and considers climate and sector climate and disaster disaster impacts assessments disaster impacts as an do not that impacts or established consider are starting to practice climate and do so disaster impacts Priority Action 5.4. Communicate and mitigate the disaster and climate risk exposure of the financial sector Integration of climate Climate and disaster risks are identified and integrated in Banks, Banks, Climate and World Bank II and disaster risks into business processes and portfolios (e.g. lending, investments) and insurers, insurers, and disaster 2021f business processes by are measured and reported and large large investors risks and TSKB 2021 banks, insurers, and investors do have identified management large investors not consider and begun are fully climate and to consider integrated disaster risks climate and in business disaster risks processes and portfolios Specific disaster Regulations for banks, insurers, and large investors include There are Some Regulations World Bank II and climate risk specific disaster and climate risk requirements no specific specific risk for banks, 2021f requirements in bank, disaster and requirements insurers, insurer, and large climate risk are in place and large investor regulations requirements or under investors have in regulations development specific risk requirements Quantified estimates Quantified estimate of exposure to natural hazards are required Banks, Some banks, Banks, World Bank II of exposure to natural for banks, insurers, and large investors insurers, insurers, and insurers, and 2021f hazards required for and large large investors large investors TSKB 2021 banks, insurers, and investors have conduct systematically large investors no quantified quantified conduct estimates of estimates of quantified their exposure their exposure estimates of to natural to natural their exposure hazards hazards to natural but not hazards systematically Climate and disaster Banks, insurers, and large investors undertake stress testing for Banks, Some banks, Banks, World Bank II risk stress tests for climate and disaster risks under at least two climate scenarios investors, investors, and investors, and 2021f banks, insurers. and and large large investors large investors large investors investors do conduct stress systematically not undertake tests but not undertake stress tests systematically stress tests 126 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Adaptation Principle 6. Application: Prioritization, implementation, and monitoring progress Priority Action 6.1. Create a strong institutional and legal framework, with appropriate stakeholder involvement Climate change law A climate change law and related regulations are in place There is no A climate A climate World Bank, II climate change change law change law is forthcoming law in place is under in place and up development to date or review by parliament A&R governance The executive, judiciary, and legislative bodies have the A&R A&R A&R World Bank, II framework authority and capacity to review executive A&R action/inaction, governance governance governance forthcoming enforce executive and legislative action on A&R and review and effectiveness effectiveness effectiveness implement government A&R policies by the by the by the executive, executive, executive, judiciary, and judiciary, and judiciary, and legislative legislative is legislative is is low moderate high Government A whole-of-government coordination mechanism for A&R There is no Mechanism Mechanism is MoEUCC II coordination policies and actions is in place including a committee or body mechanism in is in place in place and 2018b mechanism for A&R responsible for climate change adaptation and resilience and a place but lacks functioning World Bank, policies and actions horizontal (including all relevant ministries) and vertical (including integration effectively forthcoming local governments, public institutions, the private sector, and of all relevant other relevant organizations) participation structure parties Effective stakeholder There is effective stakeholder engagement for A&R that allows There is no There is limited There is MoEUCC II involvement for integrating all stakeholders’ needs in policy development and engagement or participation inclusive and 2018b planning participation effective World Bank, participation forthcoming Priority Action 6.2. Design an A&R strategy with prioritized actions National Climate A national climate change adaptation strategy and/or action plan There is no A strategy A strategy or MoEUCC II Change Adaptation is in place and implemented strategy or or plan is in plan is in place 2018b Strategy plan in place place but not and effectively effectively implemented implemented National NCs and BRs are regularly submitted to the UNFCCC with good- NCs and NCs and BRs NCs and BRs MoEUCC II communications quality information on vulnerability and adaptation assessments BRs are not are regularly are regularly 2018b (NCs) and biennial and strategies regularly submitted, submitted MoEUCC reports (BRs) submitted but A&R with good- 2019 information is quality A&R limited information LTS An LTS for climate change is in place and includes A&R LTS is not in LTS with A&R LTS with A&R Expert III considerations and objectives place objectives objectives is in judgement is under place development NDC An NDC is in place under the UNFCCC, is regularly updated, and There is no NDC is in NDC is UNFCCC n.d. II incorporates A&R considerations NDC in place place but not regularly Climate updated/ does updated and Action not consider considers A&R Tracker 2021 A&R Priority Action 6.3. Set concrete sector-level targets to guide implementation by line ministries and local governments NDP incorporates The strategic framework of the economy/finance/planning NDP does not NDP NDP MoD 2019 II A&R targets ministries incorporates and is aligned with A&R targets set in the incorporate incorporates incorporates national CCAP A&R targets some A&R A&R targets targets, but in line with they are not the National aligned with Climate the National Change Climate Adaptation Change Strategy Adaptation Strategy Tasking central Central economy, finance, and planning ministries are tasked with Climate Tasks and Tasks and World Bank, II ministries to tackle and effectively implement clear functions and responsibilities on change functions have functions are forthcoming climate change issues climate change issues tasks and been assigned assigned and functions are but are not effectively not assigned effectively implemented to central implemented ministries Sectoral A&R Sectoral A&R priorities are set by line ministries and Sectoral A&R Some line Line ministries OECD 2019b II priority setting and accompanied by an established implementation plan priorities are ministries set set and implementation not in place sectoral A&R effectively priorities / implement these are not sectoral A&R effectively priorities implemented Clear A&R functions A clear organizational structure and functional assignment A clear Structure Structure is World Bank, II assigned between is in place for designing and/or implementing A&R policies structure is not is under in place and forthcoming national and local and actions between national and local authorities and in place development effective authorities administrations or in place but not effective Regional A&R Regional A&R priorities have been identified in collaboration Regional Regional Regional World Bank, II priority setting and with local authorities and stakeholders and regional CCAPs are CCAPs have CCAPs have CCAPs are forthcoming implementation developed and implemented not been been/are being in place and developed developed but effectively not effectively implemented implemented 127 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM Indicator Definition Nascent Emerging Established Source DQ Local climate change Local CCAPs are developed with objectives and priorities Local CCAPs Some local Local CCAPs UNDP 2021 II action identified and implemented for A&R have not been CCAPs have have been/ developed been/are being are being developed developed, but A&R and A&R objectives and objectives and priorities are priorities are underdeveloped developed and or not implemented implemented Priority Action 6.4. Screen all public policies and expenditures for climate and disaster risks and align them with adaptation targets Disaster and The government considers disaster risk and climate change in Disaster risk Disaster risk Disaster risk World Bank, II climate-informed public investment planning and management and climate and climate and climate forthcoming public investment change are not change are change are management considered considered, systematically but not considered systematically Green taxonomy A green taxonomy is in place and considers A&R Green Green Green World Bank II considering A&R taxonomy is taxonomy taxonomy 2021f not in place is under in place and development considers A&R or in place but does not consider A&R SOEs identify and SOEs have identified DRM and climate change risks and develop SOEs have Some SOEs Most SOEs MoD 2019 II consider climate- and adaptation and resilience strategies/plans or include them in their not identified have included have included World Bank, disaster-related risks LTS and decision making and do not risks in their r risks in forthcoming consider LTS and their LTS risks in their decision and decision decision making making making Priority Action 6.5. Allocate appropriate funding to the adaptation strategy National budget The national budget is used as a policy instrument for setting A&R financing A&R financing A&R financing World Bank, II allocates funding for DRM and climate adaptation priorities over the short and medium needs are needs are needs are forthcoming A&R actions terms and allocates resources to cover A&R financing needs not/minimally partially adequately reflected reflected reflected Subnational Requirements are in place for subnational governments to Subnational There is a The World Bank, II governments budget allocate budget for A&R actions governments requirement requirement forthcoming for A&R actions are not to budget for for subnational required to A&R actions, governments budget for but it is not to budget A&R actions effectively for A&R is implemented effectively implemented Environmental Environmental protection spending (% of GDP); includes all Bottom tercile Middle tercile Upper tercile OECD Data I protection spending activities and actions that have as their main purpose the prevention, reduction, and elimination of pollution as well as any other degradation of the environment, is used as a proxy for A&R spending Private sector A&R Mechanisms such as PPPs are in place to increase the availability Mechanisms Some Mechanisms World Bank II financing of financial instruments for A&R for the private sector are not in place mechanisms are in place 2021f are in place but and starting need further to be widely development used to expand private sector participation in A&R financing Priority Action 6.6. Track progress over time, and review and revise the strategy A&R M&E An M&E plan for A&R planning and implementation is in place There is no A plan is in A plan is in World Bank, II plan in place place but not place and forthcoming implemented implemented Independent Availability of an independent body or third party assigned to There is no Independent There is World Bank, II monitoring of A&R review A&R progress independent monitoring is effective forthcoming progress monitoring in place but independent not effectively monitoring of implemented A&R progress Disaster-related Mechanisms to track disaster-related expenditures, such as PD-PFM PD-PFM PD-PFM Expert III expenditure tracking Postdisaster Public Financial Management Reviews (PD- or other or other or other judgement and review PFM), are in place, implying that the legislature systematically mechanisms mechanisms mechanisms scrutinizes postdisaster expenditures, issues recommendations, are not are conducted are conducted and follows up on their implementation, and independent bodies conducted but not systematically perform frequent reviews systematically and are and are not effectively effectively followed up followed up 128 APPENDIX C: TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM