Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: ICR00006151
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
IDA-53400 / IDA-64130 / TF-16000
ON A CREDIT
IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 65.1 MILLION
(US$100 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
AN ADDITIONAL CREDIT
IN THE AMOUNT OF EUR 21.9 MILLION
(US$25 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
AND A GRANT
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$6.65 MILLION
(US$131.65 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
REPUBLIC OF NIGER
FOR THE
NIGER DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
April 26, 2023
Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice
Western And Central Africa Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of
their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective March 15, 2023)
Currency Unit = CFA Franc (CFAF)
CFAF 619 = US$1
US$ 1.33 = SDR 1
FISCAL YEAR
July 1 – June 30
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AF Additional Financing
AHA Aménagement Hydro-Agricole (Irrigated Perimeters)
CC/SAP Cellule de Coordination du Système d'Alerte Précoce (Coordination Cell of the Early
Warning System)
CERC Contingency Emergency Response Component
CREWS Climate Risks Early Warning System
DALY Disability-Adjusted Life Year
DGPC Direction Générale de la Protection Civile (General Directorate of Civil Protection)
DMN Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (National Meteorology Directorate)
DNPGCCA Dispositif National de Prévention et de Gestion des Catastrophes et Crises Alimentaires
(National Mechanism for the Prevention and Management of Disasters and Food
Crises)
DRM Disaster Risk Management
ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework
EWS Early Warning System
FCS Fragile and Conflict-affected Situation
FCV Fragility, Conflict, and Violence
FM Financial Management
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global Environment Facility
GEMS Geo-Enabling initiative for Monitoring and Supervision
GoN Government of Niger
GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism
ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report
ICT Information and Communication Technology
IFR Interim Financial Report
IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
IRI Intermediate Results Indicator
IRM Immediate Response Mechanism
IRR Internal Rate of Return
ISR Implementation Status and Results Report
LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
MAH-GC Ministère de l’Action Humanitaire et de la Gestion des Catastrophes (Ministry of
Humanitarian Action and Disaster Management)
MPC Marginal Propensity to Consume
MRI Mécanisme de Réponse Immédiate (Immediate Response Mechanism)
MTR Midterm Review
NPV Net Present Value
O&M Operation and Maintenance
PAD Project Appraisal Document
PAP Project-Affected Person
PDES Plan de Développement Économique et Social (Economic and Social Development Plan)
PDO Project Development Objective
PGRC-DU Projet de Gestion des Risques de Catastrophes et de Développement Urbain (Disaster
Risk Management and Urban Development Project)
PIDUREM Projet Intégré de Développement Urbain et de Résilience Multisectorielle (Niger
Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project)
PIMELAN Projet Intégré de Modernisation de l’Elevage et de l’Agriculture au Niger (Agricultural
and Livestock Transformation Project)
PIU Project Implementation Unit
PV Photovoltaic
RAP Resettlement Action Plan
RF Results Framework
RPF Resettlement Policy Framework
RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment
TF Trust Fund
ToC Theory of Change
UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
VSL Value of Statistical Life
WGI Worldwide Governance Indicators
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1
I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 7
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ......................................................................................................7
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................... 11
II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 15
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ......................................................................................................... 15
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ................................................................................... 16
C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................ 18
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ................................................................. 20
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ........................................................................ 20
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 21
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................ 21
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION.......................................................................... 23
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 24
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ......................................................... 24
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE.................................................. 26
C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................ 28
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .................................................................................... 30
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 30
ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 33
ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 48
ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 51
ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 52
ANNEX 5. MAPS OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE ACHIEVED .......................................................... 67
ANNEX 6. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 75
ANNEX 7. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 76
Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana
Country Director: Clara De Sousa
Regional Director: Simeon Kacou Ehui
Practice Manager: Sylvie Debomy
Task Team Leader: Claudia Ruth Soto Orozco
ICR Main Author: Mare Lo
ICR Contributor: Cecile Lorillou
The World Bank
Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
DATA SHEET
BASIC INFORMATION
Product Information
Project ID Project Name
Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban
P145268
Development Project
Country Financing Instrument
Niger Investment Project Financing
Original EA Category Revised EA Category
Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)
Related Projects
Relationship Project Approval Product Line
Additional Financing P167352-AF-Niger 17-May-2019 IBRD/IDA
Disaster Risk
Management and
Urban Development
Project
Supplement P145932-Niger Disaster 11-Dec-2013 Global Environment Project
Risk Management and
Urban Development
Project
Organizations
Borrower Implementing Agency
Ministry of Planning Prime Minister's Office
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
Project Development Objective (PDO)
Original PDO
The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve Niger’s resilience to natural hazards through selected
disaster risk management interventions in targeted project sites and strengthening of Government's capacity to
respond promptly and effectively to an eligible crisis or an emergency.
FINANCING
Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$)
World Bank Financing
P145268 IDA-53400 100,000,000 100,000,000 90,775,595
P145268 IDA-64130 25,000,000 25,000,000 23,354,466
P145932 TF-16000 6,649,315 6,644,005 6,644,005
Total 131,649,315 131,644,005 120,774,066
Non-World Bank Financing
0 0 0
Total 0 0 0
Total Project Cost 131,649,315 131,644,005 120,774,066
KEY DATES
FIN_TABLE_DAT
Project Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing
P145268 11-Dec-2013 15-Aug-2014 04-Dec-2017 30-Jun-2020 31-Oct-2022
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING
Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions
28-Mar-2016 12.04 Change in Implementing Agency
Change in Results Framework
Change in Institutional Arrangements
23-Mar-2017 39.07 Change in Components and Cost
Reallocation between Disbursement Categories
Change in Disbursements Arrangements
25-Apr-2019 84.09 Additional Financing
Change in Results Framework
Change in Components and Cost
Change in Loan Closing Date(s)
Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered
29-Jun-2021 104.38 Change in Results Framework
Change in Loan Closing Date(s)
Change in Implementation Schedule
Other Change(s)
KEY RATINGS
Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality
Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial
RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs
Actual
No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements
(US$M)
01 12-Apr-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .94
02 27-Nov-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .95
03 16-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.62
04 16-Dec-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.19
05 20-Jun-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 21.41
06 27-Dec-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 33.73
07 30-Jun-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 55.20
08 04-Apr-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 64.21
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
09 03-Oct-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 73.95
10 07-May-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 84.09
11 22-Dec-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 90.37
12 25-Jun-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 95.52
13 01-Feb-2021 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 99.17
14 09-Aug-2021 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 106.04
15 05-Feb-2022 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 108.61
16 08-Aug-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 112.43
SECTORS AND THEMES
Sectors
Major Sector/Sector (%)
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 20
Other Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 20
Public Administration 26
Central Government (Central Agencies) 11
Sub-National Government 10
Other Public Administration 5
Transportation 5
Other Transportation 5
Water, Sanitation and Waste Management 49
Other Water Supply, Sanitation and Waste
49
Management
Themes
Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%)
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
Finance 7
Finance for Development 7
Disaster Risk Finance 7
Public Sector Management 3
Public Administration 3
Administrative and Civil Service Reform 1
Municipal Institution Building 2
Human Development and Gender 6
Gender 6
Urban and Rural Development 62
Rural Development 41
Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 41
Disaster Risk Management 21
Disaster Response and Recovery 7
Disaster Risk Reduction 7
Disaster Preparedness 7
Environment and Natural Resource Management 22
Water Resource Management 22
Water Institutions, Policies and Reform 22
ADM STAFF
Role At Approval At ICR
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana
Country Director: Ousmane Diagana Clara Ana Coutinho De Sousa
Director: Jamal Saghir Simeon Kacou Ehui
Practice Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala Sylvie Debomy
Task Team Leader(s): Richard James Claudia Ruth Soto Orozco
ICR Contributing Author: Mare Lo
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL
Context
1. At appraisal in November 2013, Niger was considered one of the poorest countries in Sub-
Saharan Africa. The economy was dominated by agriculture, which contributed 43 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP). Frequent droughts, political instability, and fluctuations in revenue from
Niger’s mineral exports contributed to high volatility in its growth rate. A poor harvest in 2011 resulted
in economic growth of only 2.3 percent and a severe cereal deficit, which triggered large inflows of
humanitarian aid in 2012. Per capita GDP was about US$680, poverty rate was 60.8 percent, and life
expectancy was 57 years. The country’s high population growth rate of 3.3 percent per year was largely
the product of an extremely high fertility rate of 7.6 children per woman.1 Human development
indicators in health and education were also among the lowest in the world.
2. Niger was facing instability due to neighboring armed conflict, an influx of refugees, and the
emergence of political and religious groups as alternative service providers and authorities. The
Libyan conflict led to the return of over 100,000 migrants and an outflow of arms. The coup d’état and
rebellion in Mali resulted in an additional inflow of around 64,000 refugees into Niger. These challenges
exacerbated an already fragile humanitarian situation, particularly in the northern Tillabéri region,
which was hit hard by the 2012 food crisis. Boko Haram's activities in Niger, including recruitment and
use of the country as a refuge, further threatened the economy, with the expulsion of Nigeriens from
northern Nigeria and border closures adding to the strain.
3. About 20 percent of Niger’s population lived in urban areas, of which 40 percent lived in the
capital, Niamey. The urban population rate was expected to reach 40 percent by 2030 due to
demographic and expected urban population growth. The contribution of urban areas to the country’s
GDP was about 50 percent while less than 8 percent of the national budget was dedicated to building
or rehabilitating urban infrastructure. Limited technical capacity, unpredictable financial resources at
the local government level, and weak coordination among Central Government entities remained the
biggest urban challenges, thus contributing to the high vulnerability of poor urban households.
4. Niger was also highly vulnerable to natural hazards, including floods and droughts. Several
factors contributed to rising disaster risks in Niger, including population growth (4.41 percent on
average between 2000 and 2015)2 and rapid urbanization, deforestation, increasing soil erosion and
land degradation in watersheds, and climate variability. Disaster risk was exacerbated by inadequate
planning, particularly with respect to proliferation of urban population settlements along the banks of
the Niger and Komadougou Rivers; poor building standards; obsolete or inadequate infrastructure, such
as vulnerable flood protection dikes; and limited emergency response and recovery capacity.
1 Fertility remains high at 6.7 children per woman in 2020, leading to an estimated population increase to 31.3 million by 2027
and to 65.6 million by 2050. Persistently high fertility and declining child mortality have resulted in high population growth at
3.65 percent in 2021. Niger World Bank indicators.
2 Niger City Scan, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and World Bank.
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
5. In Niger, ten major droughts and nine flooding events were recorded over the last 30 years,
leading to significant human losses and damages to infrastructure. Drought episodes resulted in rural
exodus and uncontrolled demographic growth in urban areas. Record precipitations in 2010 and 2012
led to significant floods affecting already vulnerable population, livestock, cropland, and rangeland. The
flooding events in 2012 led to critical damage to infrastructure and housing in cities, villages, and
irrigated perimeters (aménagement hydro-agricoles, AHAs) along the Niger and Komadougou Rivers.
6. Subsequently, the Government of Niger (GoN) requested support from the World Bank to help
(a) rehabilitate infrastructures and improve livelihoods through effective and sustainable programs, (b)
improve disaster risk management (DRM) capacity (that is, risk evaluation, planning, resilient building
practices, early warning systems [EWSs] and emergency response), and (c) introduce long-term
remedial programs in critical watersheds that pose a growing threat to urban areas and rural
communities along major rivers. This request led to the Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban
Development Project (Projet de Gestion des Risques de Catastrophes et de Développement Urbain,
PGRC-DU). The project design benefited from the previous national and regional projects (the third
Community Action Program [PAC-3, P132306]), the regional committees for project analysis, the Local
Infrastructure Development Project [PDIL, P095949], the Safety Net Project [PFS, P123399], the
Community Action Project for Climate Resilience [CAP CR, P125669], and the Niger Community-Based
Disaster Reduction Project [P145453].
Rationale for World Bank Engagement
7. The objectives of the project were aligned with the World Bank’s priorities reflected in the
World Bank Strategy for Africa’s second pillar (Africa’s Future and the World Bank’s Support to It,
March 2011):3 (a) competitiveness and employment and (b) vulnerability and resilience. The project also
directly contributed to the World Bank Country Partnership Strategy for the period FY13–16 (Report No.
76232 NE) and was squarely aligned with its second pillar ‘reducing vulnerability’. The project was also
in sync with Niger’s Economic and Social Development Plan (Plan de Développement Économique et
Social, PDES) 2012–2015 which was formulated by the GoN as a unifying framework for all sectoral
policies and strategies. Finally, the project was in line with ‘the Nigeriens feed Nigeriens Initiative ( Les
Nigériens Nourrissent les Nigériens)’, specifically its second and fourth objectives: ‘Increase the
resilience of poor households by increasing their income’ and ‘Enhance national and local capacity to
anticipate, prevent and manage food crises’.
Theory of Change (Results Chain)
8. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) did not include a Theory of Change (ToC) as it was not
required at the time of preparation. The inferred ToC based on the restructurings and Additional
Financing (AF) remains valid for the original project design and is unpacked under the Efficacy section
(Figure 1).
3World Bank website:
https://www.icafrica.org/fileadmin/documents/Knowledge/World_Bank/1.Africa%27s%20Future%20and%20the%20World%20
Bank%27s%20Support%20to%20It.pdf.
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
Figure 1. Theory of Change
Project Development Objectives (PDOs)
9. The original PDO was to improve the Niger’s resilience to natural hazards through (i) selected DRM
interventions in targeted project sites, and (ii) strengthening of Government’s capacity to respond
promptly and effectively to an eligible crisis or an emergency.
Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators
10. The key outcomes indicators as stated in the PAD were:
(a) PDO indicator 1: Direct project beneficiaries (4.0 million), of which female (50%);
(b) PDO indicator 2: Targeted flood protection and sustainable land and water management
interventions contributing to increased resilience (% of targeted interventions
implemented); and
(c) PDO indicator 3: Performance of the early warning and response system for natural rapid-
onset hazards (e.g., floods, strong winds, and wild land fires) from local to national level
(5.0).
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
Components
11. Originally funded by a US$100 million IDA-53400 credit (P145268) and a US$6.64 million grant
(P145932) by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF - Trust Fund
[TF]-16000), the project included four components.
12. Component 1: Flood Risk Management Investments (IDA financing: US$70 million original
allocation and US$76.30 million revised allocation after the AF/third restructuring and TF financing:
US$6.65 million, total US$82.95). Flood risk management investments under Component 1 included the
following:
Subcomponent 1.1: Drainage, irrigation, and socioeconomic priority infrastructure, including
(a) construction and/or rehabilitation of drainage canals and collectors and development of
waste management systems, (b) rehabilitation of drinking water supplies and social
infrastructures, and (c) rehabilitation of AHAs.
Subcomponent 1.2: Flood protection infrastructure, including (a) improvement of riverbank
protection through mechanical and biological processes, (b) stabilization of sandy
intermittent waterways (koris), and (c) rehabilitation and upgrading of dikes where the LDCF
grant would support biological bank protection.
Subcomponent 1.3: Rehabilitation of watersheds, including (a) development of sustainable
land and water management practices where the LDCF grant would specifically support land
recovery works on glazes and plateau, (b) rehabilitation and development of pond control
structures, (c) sand dune fixation, (d) reshaping or re-profiling of drainage canals, and (e)
land restoration measures.
13. Component 2: Capacity Building for Urban Development and Disaster Risk Management (US$22
million original allocation and US$26 million revised allocation after the AF/third restructuring. US$21.1
million disbursed against US$26 million budgeted). Capacity-building activities under Component 2
included the following:
Subcomponent 2.1: Support to elected officials, municipal services, and civil society,
including: (a) strengthening of local government's fiduciary and technical capacity,
collaboration frameworks (intergovernmental management), information management
systems, and capacity; and (b) development of regional and municipal development,
sanitation, and land use master plans.
Subcomponent 2.2: Development of national capacities to foster institutional collaboration
and integration of the project activities into the recipient's relevant institutions through,
among others: (a) the development of a national sanitation policy on stormwater,
wastewater, basic sanitation, and solid waste; (b) capacity strengthening for planning in
urban and rural areas; and (c) provision of equipment and training to monitor river water
levels and flows and maintain AHAs.
Subcomponent 2.3: Strengthening of DRM capacities at the national and local levels through,
among others, risk evaluation, risk reduction, emergency preparedness, and response,
through activities, such as the development of risk atlas (hazard exposure, vulnerability, and
loss probability information), development of real-time multi-hazard information systems
for proper monitoring of risk and available resources, provision of equipment and training
for emergency response, preparation of standard operating procedures for early warning
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
and response, preparation of guidelines for safe construction practices, and mainstreaming
of disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation into the development process.
Subcomponent 2.4: Building information and communication technology (ICT) capacities for
urban development, through: (a) acquisition of high-resolution imagery for the six major
cities, covered by the PGRC-DU, and equipment to replicate this work; (b) training youth and
community members on digital cartography to gather information for urban planning shared
as open maps and data; and (c) renovation of an existing innovation center plus equipment
to serve as a training facility and collaboration space for young entrepreneurs and
researchers to develop and manufacture new products for smart cities.
14. Component 3: Project Management (US$5 million original allocation and US$9.2 million revised
allocation after the AF/third restructuring. US$11.1 million disbursed against US$9.2 million budgeted).
This component financed a National Project Implementation Unit (PIU) and four Regional PIUs in charge
of project management and monitoring, preparation of financial audits, and periodic evaluations. It also
financed the provision of goods, training, operating costs, and consultants' services required to fulfill
PIUs mandates.
15. Component 4: Contingency Component (US$0 original allocation and US$13.5 million revised
allocation after the AF/third restructuring. US$4.6 million disbursed against US$13.5 million budgeted)
also referred to as the Contingency Emergency Response Component (CERC). This component
strengthened the Government’s capacity to respond promptly and efficiently to an eligible crisis or
emergency by supporting mitigation, recovery, and reconstruction efforts under an Immediate
Response Mechanism (IRM), whose modus operandi was articulated after project effectiveness.
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION
16. Overall, the project underwent four changes: (a) a restructuring in March 2016; (b) a restructuring
in March 2017; (c) an AF and restructuring in April 2019; and (d) a restructuring in June 2021.
Revised PDO Indicators
17. The PDO scope remained unchanged, but PDO indicators were adjusted as follows (Table 1):
(a) Increase of PDO indicator 1 target under the AF/third restructuring to reflect CERC and AF
activities;
(b) Change of measurement methodology for PDO indicator 2, under the AF/third restructuring
due to a reduction of activities to be accounted for in this indicator;
(c) Change of target and unit of measurement of PDO indicator 3 under the first restructuring
to capture activity impact and changes of units of measurement and a new target.
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
Table 1: Revised targets of PDO indicators through four restructurings
Expected Outcomes PDO PAD 1st Rest. 2nd Rest. 3rd Rest. /AF 4th Rest.
Level Indicators End Target 2016 2017 2019 2021
Applicable to 1. Direct project 4.0 million Unchanged Unchanged 4.3 million Unchanged
Outcome 1 and 2 beneficiaries (of which (50%) (50%)
female)
Outcome 1: Improving 2. Targeted flood protection 100% of Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged
Niger’s resilience to natural and sustainable land and targeted but there was
hazards through selected water management interventions a revision of
DRM interventions in interventions contributing implemented measurement
targeted project sites to increased resilience methodology4.
Outcome 2: Strengthening of 3. Performance of the early 100% 5 (number) Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged
Government’s capacity to warning and response
respond promptly and system for natural rapid-
effectively to an eligible crisis onset hazards (e.g. floods,
or an emergency strong winds, wild
landfires)
18. At Intermediary level, two indicators and three sub indicators were substantially overachieved ,
i.e.:
a) Indicator “Watershed protection and land restoration interventions measured by sub-
indicators (ha)”, was overachieved with 17,020 ha against the original target of 6,500 ha, as
the target did not effectively account for the adjustments under the sub indicators’ targets.
The final target was not adjusted to effectively reflect the changes in sub indicators targets,
under the third restructuring AF.
i. Sub indicator “Restoration of degraded land (ha)” was overachieved with 11,020 ha against
the original target of 6,500 ha due to the inclusion of works under the 2016 IRM, for which
PGRC-DU resources were used, and reimbursed through the AF without revision of the
indicator target.
ii. Sub indicator “Stonewalls (km)” was overachieved with 80.59 km against the target of 10
km, revised through the third restructuring/AF, due to additional works requested only in
2022 by the municipalities of Agadez, Tahoua, Loubé, Bogon, and Azzem for protection of
Koris, school enclosures, and rehabilitation of collapsed classrooms.
b) Indicator “Drainage infrastructure rehabilitation (km)” was overachieved with 120.95 km
against the original target of 23.5 km is due to rehabilitation of not only primary drainage
networks but also of additional secondary and tertiary drainage networks which were initially
not planned, but which GoN requested due to their level of degradation.
c) Sub indicator “Area with detailed maps in digital and paper formats” was overachieved with
780 km2 against the original target of 400 km2 is due to the addition of two extra cities (Maradi
and Zinder) for a total of 8 mapped cities instead of the original 6 cities.
19. At Intermediary level, two indicators and three sub indicators were substantially
underachieved:
4 As agreed at MTR, the list of activities to be considered for measurements of this indicator was reduced from nine to five, as
the project costs were substantially underestimated at project preparation, rendering the delivery of 4 activities no longer
possible. The indicator focuses on (a) regulation of structures along tributaries, (b) rehabilitation/development of pond control
structures, (c) rehabilitation of old natural drains that have collapsed, and (d) rehabilitation of drainage gutters/collectors/sewers
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a) Sub indicator “drainage pavement (km)” was underachieved with 9.3 km against the original
target of 20 km is due to (i) the cancellation of a 1.5 km paved road section in Birni Konni,
which GoN delivered under another project; (ii) the cancellation of 3.58 km paved road
sections in Niamey, which GoN decided to convert into asphalt roads under another project;
and (iii) the reallocation of funds initially dedicated to the drainage pavements to the
construction of protective dykes in Niamey.
b) Sub indicator “Trained people on digital cartography” with 76 people against the original target
of 200 people is due to start delays of ICT and academic activities, as well as security-related
postponement by GoN of 2019 festivities in Tillaberi, rendering the co-financing for the ITIKAR
start-up no longer feasible.
c) Sub indicator “Number of local innovation projects supported” was underachieved with 5
projects against the original target of 8 projects is due to rigorous candidate selection criteria
and security-related cancellation of festivals for young people.
d) Indicator “Time taken the preparation/submission of the activation package by the Client for
an eligible crisis or emergency triggering an Immediate Response Mechanisms (IRM)“ was
underachieved with 8 weeks against a target of 4 weeks is due to the fact that IRM activation
requires two separated processes by two different actors (preparation/submission of the
activation package by the Client, and approval/disbursement of funds by the WB), where
measurement changes during implementation were not reflected in a target change.
Revised Components
20. Project components remained the same during the life of the project. The restructurings and the
AF led to: (a) allocation of additional funds to certain components; (b) reallocation of funds between
components and subcomponents; (c) cancellation of certain activities (Sirba and Gourouby watershed
regulation and municipal drainage budgeting and master plan); and (d) introduction of additional
activities under the AF/third restructuring to extend flood risk reduction investments to two additional
regions, Agadez and Tahoua, and add new ICT activities.
Other Changes
21. A simple (level 2) first restructuring was carried out on March 28, 2016. This restructuring
amended the Financial Agreement to reflect the following changes: (a) transfer of project oversight from
the Ministry of Planning, Land Development and Community Development to the Prime Minister’s
Office following a government reshuffling on September 3, 2015; (b) disbursement schedule update;
and (c) the results framework (RF) update. Two results were updated from the original PAD:
‘Performance of the early warning and response system’ was updated to measure the number of
institutions contributing to the national early warning and response system coordinated by the National
Mechanism for the Prevention and Management of Disasters and Food Crises ( Dispositif National de
Prévention et de Gestion des Catastrophes et Crises Alimentaires, DNPGCCA), with an end target of 5
instead of ‘Yes/No’ and ‘Sources of drinking water rehabilitated or developed’ was corrected from 260
to 190, as the 260 original value could not be delivered with the allocated budget.
22. A second, simple (level 2) restructuring was carried out on March 23, 2017, to reallocate
US$13.4 million to the CERC (Component 4) as part of the IDA IRM activation. This reallocation aimed
to address the negative impact of the 2016 flooding caused by heavy summer rains linked to the El Niño
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phenomenon. The restructuring also included two additional regions, negatively affected by the floods,
Agadez and Tahoua, that had not been initially featured in the original project design.
23. A third, simple (level 2) restructuring with an AF of US$25 million (P167352) was signed between
the GoN and IDA on September 2, 2019, in line with the December 2017 midterm review (MTR)
recommendations and following the GoN request to bridge the IRM-CERC financing gap. The closing
date was extended by 12 months to June 30, 2021. In addition to replenishing the US$13.5 million that
had been reallocated to the CERC as part of the second restructuring, the AF also scaled up project
activities in the two additional regions, Agadez and Tahoua (US$7.5 million), and added new ICT
activities (Subcomponent 2.4) and expanded them to Maradi and Zinder (US$4 million).
24. A fourth, simple (level 2) restructuring was carried out on June 29, 2021, to: (a) extend the
closing date of the original and AF IDA credit (IDA 54300 and IDA 64130) to October 31, 2022; (b) revise
the associated implementation schedule and disbursement estimates to allow for the completion of
recovery and reconstruction activities financed by the 2020 IRM following the devasting 2020 floods;
and (c) adjust two sub-indicators of the intermediate outcome indicator ‘Drainage infrastructure
rehabilitation’. The IRM was activated under the Niger Agricultural and Livestock Transformation Project
(Projet Intégré de Modernisation de l’Elevage et de l’Agriculture au Niger, PIMELAN - P164509) but
implemented by the PGRC-DU PIU.
25. The four Regional PIUs under the National PIU were increased to six to help supervise activities
in Tahoua and Agadez according to the third restructuring. They were in charge of supporting the
National PIU in managing the parent project and the AF, as well as an additional US$39.5 million for
emergency response and recovery following the 2020 floods, as part of the September 2020 IRM
activation. The IRM was activated in the context of devasting flood impacts and the then ongoing COVID-
19 pandemic. The outcomes of these emergency funds are not under the purview of the PGRC-DU, as
the IRM was activated through PIMELAN’s CERC and therefore is not reviewed under this
Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR).
Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change
26. The changes that were introduced had no impact on the original ToC. The first restructuring
moved the project under a more effective oversight, adjusted indicators, and reduced the output of
underbudgeted activities. Conversely, the second and third restructurings reflected changes to the
project due to CERC activation and provided additional funding to replenish the project after CERC
activation. The second and third restructurings also scaled up critical subcomponents, that is, by
expanding the project scope and the regional PIUs and increasing ICT activities and extended the closing
date to allow for the completion of ongoing and new activities. A second closing extension was needed
after the disruptions due to the 2020 floods, the responsibility for managing PIMELAN’s IRM-CERC
funds, and the implementation delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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II. OUTCOME
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs
Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating
27. According to the European Commission’s INFORM Risk Index5 and the World Bank Climate
Change Knowledge Portal,6 the frequency and severity of hydrometeorological hazards in Niger,
namely floods and droughts, are expected to increase due to climate change, and the population
remains vulnerable to these hazards’ impacts. Moreover, Niger is exposed to multiple conflicts and
fragility risks stemming from structural causes and fragility drivers. The FY22 Niger Risk and Resilience
Assessment (RRA) identifies several structural drivers of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV), including:
(a) cross-border insecurity and limited access to justice; (b) competition over scarce natural resources
aggravated by climate change and demographic pressure; and (c) social and income intergroup
inequality amid decreasing economic opportunities for women and the youth. The project addressed
the latter two structural drivers of FCV through the infrastructure investment that will increase the
resilience of these regions’ populations to hazards such as the following: (a) natural disaster
mitigation/control structures will ensure the free flow of goods and citizens, including labor, and cause
fewer weather-related victims and livestock losses; (b) reconstructed water channeling and supply
systems will improve the resilience of populations’ livelihoods, especially women, youth, and the poor,
as they will provide them with more reliable access to drinking water and irrigation; and (c) the
establishment of a countrywide DRM system is a gradual process that will incrementally increase Niger’s
DRM system preparedness and improve its response at all levels in the future.
28. The PDO remains highly relevant at closing as it has enabled the establishment of a post-disaster
rehabilitation approach and the strengthening of the DRM system with an effective institutional
framework. The PDO remains consistent with the World Bank Country Partnership Framework FY18–
FY22 (Report No. 123736 NE) Pillar 3 ‘Strengthening governance by promoting important sectoral
reforms that improve service delivery, expand economic opportunity, bolster economic growth, and
augment the resilience of the population to fragility and climate change’. Moreover, the ongoing World
Bank US$250 million Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project ( Projet
Intégré de Développement Urbain et de Résilience Multisectorielle , PIDUREM - P175857) is capitalizing
on the PGRC-DU outcome by increasing resilience to floods and improving urban management and
access to basic services in selected municipalities in Niger.
29. The PDO remains a priority for the GoN and contributes to (a) the Niger PDES 2017-2021 Pillar 3
‘Accelerate Economic Growth’ and Pillar 5 ‘Sustainable Management of the Environment’; (b) the newly
elected GoN 2021 policy declaration of ‘strengthening of urban planning capacities and investment, the
improvement of public services, and the strengthening of DRM, as key priority areas’; (c) the 2020
Prevention and Resilience Allocation objectives and the GoN’s Prevention and Resilience Action Plan
first strategic objective ‘to improve integration of youth and women into the country’s economic and
social dynamics to mitigate FCV factors’ and second strategic objective to ‘decrease multidimensional
insecurity through participatory security management and a stronger state presence in the border and
5 European Union website: https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index.
6 World Bank website: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/niger.
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at-risk areas’; (d) the FY22 RRA for Niger recommendation No. 1 ‘strengthening the social contract
through more effective local governance by accelerating decentralization and deconcentration with an
emphasis on inclusive access to quality services at the regional and local levels’; and (e) Niger 2035
vision’s Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (Stratégie de Développement Durable
et de Croissance Inclusive). Furthermore, the GoN adopted a new DRM Law no 2022-61 on December
19, 2022, consolidating all the achievements initiated by the project in recent years, for example,
institutional systems, data and information management, preparedness and response to disasters and
humanitarian crisis, recovery measures, actors’ coordination, and disaster response financing.
30. Considering the above, the relevance of the project is rated High .
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)
Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome
31. Error! Reference source not found.The PDO’s achievement is assessed against the targets set at
the PDO and intermediate results levels confirmed in the September 2019 AF/third restructuring and
is unpacked along the lines of the two outcome statements and project components, as well as other
relevant results not measured by the RF. Throughout the project’s four restructurings, the PDO was
not changed; however, the scope of the project included two more regions, and some indicators were
revised and calibrated to better achieve the project objective. The evaluation of the project’s efficacy
relies on three sources of evidence: (a) project documentation and regular reporting of the World Bank
(that is, Aide Memoires, the MTR report, and Implementation Status and Results Reports [ISRs]); (b) the
GoN’s completion reports; and (c) interviews conducted with the World Bank team as well as the
National PIU and Regional PIUs’ members. The results measured by the PDO-level indicators and
intermediate results indicators (IRIs) and their achievement levels compared to the set targets are
presented in Annex 1.
32. The PGRC-DU PDO level Indicator 1 Direct Project Beneficiaries is applicable to both project
outcomes. The PDO indicator 1 exceeded its targeted direct project beneficiaries reaching 4,375,633
and 102 percent of target while the female target was almost attained, 98 percent.
33. The PGRC-DU achieved the targets for PDO indicator 2 related to the objective of improving the
recipient’s resilience to natural hazards. This was achieved through selected DRM interventions in the
targeted project sites, including the areas affected by the 2016 floods that were covered by the CERC.
PDO indicator 2 was 100 percent achieved through the completion of resilient flood protection and
sustainable land and water management interventions in the originally targeted regions: Diffa (6
municipalities), Dosso (22 municipalities), Niamey (5 municipalities), and Tillabéri (30 municipalities)
located along the Niger and Komadougou Rivers, as well as in the watersheds of these two rivers and
the two regions that were added to the project scope after the CERC activation: Tahoua (12
municipalities) and Agadez (7 municipalities).
34. IRIs mainly exceeded the initial targets. They include 492 sources of drinking water systems
constructed (109.3 percent of initial target), 1,647 ha of targeted irrigated land rehabilitated (97
percent), and 120.95 km (515 percent) of drainage infrastructure rehabilitated. This significant
overachievement (515 percent) can be explained by the fact that work was carried out on the secondary
and tertiary drains and the belt collars of the 10 AHAs in the regions of Tillabéri and Dosso, whereas
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initially, it was the main drains that were planned to be rehabilitated to facilitate water drainage. The
original target was not updated via the four restructurings, in parallel with the increased activities.
35. Key output indicators show uneven target achievements. The watershed protection in terms of
sand dune fixation and degraded land restoration achieved 262 percent (17,020 ha), as well as
stonewalls built (80.59 km with 800 percent), and dike protection (47.57 km with 95.14 percent) and
flood drainage infrastructure rehabilitated (8.82 km with 88 percent), drainage pavement (9.3 km with
47 percent), and Koris (6.40 km with 128 percent). Climate-resilient piped irrigation with improved
structure, dikes, and water supply schemes was constructed to withstand future disasters; however, the
development of operation and maintenance (O&M) plans was not assessed by regions.
36. The PGRC-DU achieved the targets for PDO indicator 3 related to the objective of improving the
resilience to natural hazards through strengthening of the recipient’s capacity to respond promptly
and effectively to an eligible crisis or an emergency. PDO indicator 3, which captured the performance
of the early warning and response system for natural rapid onset hazards (for example, floods, strong
winds, and wild land fires), was achieved by improving the capacity, the equipment, the ability to
mobilize resources, the provision of timely information of the five key national institutions involved in
Early warning and disaster management the Ministry of Humanitarian Action and Disaster Management
(Ministère de l’Action Humanitaire et de la Gestion des Catastrophes, MAH-GC), the General Directorate
of Civil Protection (Direction Générale de la Protection Civile (DGPC), the Coordination Cell of the Early
Warning System (Cellule de Coordination du Système d'Alerte Précoce (CC/SAP), the National
Meteorology Directorate (Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (DMN), and the Direction de la Gestion
des Ressources en Eau. The project also provided training and technical support to each institution for
improved preparedness and response planning, and interinstitutional collaboration and coordination in
terms of information and data sharing, and the establishment of coordination protocols for disaster
preparedness and response. The Project benefited from the World Bank-executed ‘Niger Strengthening
Early Warning Services’ technical assistance funded by the Climate Risks Early Warning System (CREWS),
which provided trainings and support to the involvement in women in local Early warning systems.
These institutions also benefited from parallel capacity support provided by the World Bank’s Disaster
Risk Financial Management Initiative (European Union funding) and risk management (United Nations
Office for Risk Reduction).
37. IRIs mainly exceeded the initial targets. Development/updating of 26 urban master plans and
local development plans was carried out (104 percent of achievement, while female participation in the
plan formulation was almost achieved, 93.1 percent). The targeted earmarked 4 percent of the
municipal budget allocated to solid waste collection and processing/transformation to allow for
investment sustainability was overachieved (5 percent). Moreover, both the support for preparedness
and emergency response and support for urban development were achieved (100 percent).
38. Key output indicators show uneven target achievements of the support for preparedness and
emergency response. Four activities achieved their targets: (i) fully functional database of risk in Niger;
(ii) support to civil protection for strengthening response capacity; (iii) support to national DRM agencies
achieved; and (iv) supporting urban development. For the targets related to the development of ICT and
digital tools, the target for detailed maps in digital and paper formats was overachieved by 780 out of
400 initially planned (195 percent), because the original target covered the mapping of 6 cities while 8
were mapped. The two other targets of these sub-indicators were not achieved, that is, 76 out of 200
people were trained ion digital cartography (38 percent), and five out of eight local innovation projects
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were supported (63 percent). These low results on ICT outreach were caused by long delays in the
identification and selection of start-ups that could benefit from the project, the lengthy thematic areas
selection process, and difficulties in the obtention of drone flights’ authorizations to collect data for the
digital maps. Regarding local innovation projects, the nonachievement of the target is explained by the
delay in the start of academic activities in the Innovation City (late reception of the renovation works
financed by the PGRC-DU in 2021, during the COVID-19 outbreak and concomitant restrictions to social
gathering which jeopardized the initial planning) and the demanding selection process of candidates.
39. Other IRIs and key indicator outputs were considered in the RF and were meant to assess the
government IRM reactivity as well as project management effectiveness. Despite the preparation and
approval of the IRM Operational Manual as the disbursement condition for the contingency component,
the activation of the IRM took 8 weeks instead of 4 weeks (50 percent) for the following reasons: delays
on post-disaster data collection from the client side and respective reviews by the World Bank. Project
management IRI achievement is uneven: while the quality and timely submission of procurement and
financial management (FM) reporting was achieved (100 percent), planned project activities
implemented were almost achieved (89.9 percent), and the grievance redress mechanism (GRM)
exceeded the target (112.5 percent). Regarding key output indicators, both FM and procurement
reporting were achieved (100 percent).
40. Besides the activities captured by the RF, the PGRC-DU financed additional activities. They
include the commissioning of solid waste bins, transfer stations, and transportation vehicles that are
allowed to collect 300 tons of municipal waste per day out of Niamey’s total generated waste of 550
tons per day. The urban paved roads allowed to increase access, mobility, and value of surrounding
lands and residences: 9.3 km of paved roads. The rural investments allowed the beneficiaries to increase
their nutritional intake and income through the following: (a) irrigated areas targeted by the project
have been regularly harvested since their flood-proofing owing to the supply of seeds and fertilizers; (b)
new fishing gears were provided to 1,000 fishermen; and (c) fodder was supplied to farmers to feed
their livestock. The project installed 23 roundabout red lights platforms in Niamey to ease the traffic
flow and reduce accidents. Also, the project generated 411,000 person-days of labor to the beneficiaries
living in the targeted areas. Finally, the project installed 206 photovoltaic (PV) with a 53.4 kW capacity
for the solar-powered red lights and streetlights. Additional PVs were installed under PIMELAN’s IRM.
Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating
41. The project exceeded all three targets for the PDO-level indicators under both outcomes,
despite a slight underperformance in the share of women direct project beneficiaries and
participating in decision-making committees. At the IRIs’ level, the project achieved seven of its nine
indicators (meeting three indicators, exceeding four indicators and slightly underachieving two). Some
project outputs were not met due to the fragile situation although the project implemented activities
not foreseen in its initial design, which increased its efficacy. As a result, the project’s efficacy is rated
Substantial.
C. EFFICIENCY
42. Design efficiency. Although one of its objectives was to repair the 2012 flood damages, the PGRC-
DU was not tagged as an emergency project. As a result, the data gathered was insufficient to draw a
comprehensive baseline. Still, the project design contributed to the efficient use of project resources
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that were leveraged by an AF/third restructuring not only to respond to the 2016 flood damages but
also to consolidate the project gains. Yet, the flood protection intervention scope (secondary/tertiary
drain densification instead of primary drain) had to be calibrated during the first restructuring that
proved more effective and efficient. However, the design mainly suffered from inadequate institutional
arrangements especially at the local level as the situation in Niger was unpredictable and still evolving
at the start of project implementation that was gridlocked and struck by delays. Some RF targets and
the institutional arrangements were also adjusted by the first restructuring. At the component level,
Component 1 was straightforward in rehabilitating the damaged infrastructure identified by local
governments and communities. Component 2 consisted mainly of institutional capacity building to
improve the institutional and technical effectiveness of the DRM system. The two components proved
inclusive, but like most post-emergency projects, the multiplicity of activities at the design stage coupled
with the unsettling environment slightly affected the efficiency of the project. Component 4 or CERC
was spot on as it was triggered after the 2016 floods.
43. Implementation efficiency. The PGRC-DU was affected by exogenous and endogenous factors
(see section III.B) that delayed the achievements of all three PDO indicators. Moreover, the project
faced serious delays after effectiveness as the feasibility studies to implement the rehabilitation and
construction activities took more time than originally planned. Yet, the PGRC-DU was proactive as it
sought an efficient reallocation of funds across activities and additional funding that helped a
realignment of resources and needs. Overall, the project cost and duration relatively reflected the post-
emergency nature of the task at hand. The project closed with no cost overruns, but with a nine-month
extension to deliver all the ongoing activities under the project further to delays due to the COVID-19
pandemic and related restrictions, the volatile security context in some regions, and the management
of the PIMELAN CERC activities: disbursement rate reached 99.15 percent and mirrored the physical
execution rate of 90.45 percent (Annex 1). Components 1 and 2 showed partial underbudgeting and
overbudgeting, respectively, due to the difficult security situation on the ground. Still, activity unit costs
were within the same variation range as the ones occurring in unsecure areas. Component 3 budgeted
costs and actual project management costs reached 7.4 percent well below the weighted average of the
8.5 percent benchmark based on six World Bank projects in the West Africa region despite four
restructurings. Component 4 was well designed by the AF/third restructuring and was efficiently and
satisfactorily implemented until closing as most funds were regularly disbursed (satisfactory rating until
closing). Thanks to a flexible and iterative approach, several IRIs under Component 1 were overachieved
(due to more effective technical solutions which were scaled up) or underachieved (due to solutions
that proved less effective and therefore were scaled down).
44. Administrative efficiency. The World Bank provided targeted administrative spending and
implementation support for project preparation that was efficient and where the World Bank costs were
equivalent to 0.4 percent of the disbursed funds in line with the 0.4 percent regional benchmark and
project supervision that was inefficient with 2.8 percent against a 1 percent regional benchmark due to
four restructurings (see Annexes 2 and 3) and the management of the PIMELAN CERC while project
coordination to improve environmental, social, and fiduciary arrangements benefited from careful and
continuous support.
45. Economic efficiency. At appraisal in November 2013, the PGRC-DU was expected to generate
tangible and intangible benefits by rehabilitating local infrastructure, improving watershed
management, and restoring productive activities affected by recurrent floods faced by Niger, notably
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the 2012 floods. Moreover, the second restructuring helped reshuffle and increase budget allocations
across components to respond to the challenging situation in Niger after the 2016 floods while the
response to the devastating 2020 flood was addressed through the PIMELAN. Crude benefits were
estimated and used to calculate the ex-ante net present value (NPV) of US$132.5 million. The ex-post
analysis considered a set of more robust benefits. The latter reaped strong and tangible economic gains,
notably the benefits associated with improved water management and supply. The ex post economic
analysis NPV amounts to US$158 million, mainly attributable to targeted flood protection and
sustainable land and water management interventions. This is despite a growing adverse context, not
fully anticipated at the time of the first and second restructurings and therefore not factored in at onset.
Key findings of the ex-ante and ex-post analyses are summarized in Annex 4.
Assessment of Efficiency and Rating
46. Based on the above considerations, the efficiency of the project is rated Substantial. The PGRC-
DU deployed a mix of least-cost investments and activities to meet the PDO. Despite the deterioration
of the FCV and security context, the impact of two major floods in 2016 and 2020, and the COVID-19
pandemic, the project achieved tangible economic benefits with an NPV of US$158 million for those
that could be calculated as well as intangible benefits. In a context of fragility, the project achieved
benefits in terms of emergency assistance to damage-affected areas. The project also provided indirect
benefits that are more difficult to quantify, such as those related to improved effectiveness or
preparedness and response of the DRM system at the local level that will be tested with future disaster
events. Finally, the project was implemented within the financial envelope, within the compounding
fragility, crisis, geographic and adverse economic contexts (inflation rate and recession), and with
several over-achievements in key resilience areas). Only the time frame was exceeded due to the
disruptions of the 2016 and the 2020 floods, the emergency state declared in three regions as well as
the COVID-19 pandemic with related restrictions.
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING
47. The relevance of the PDO was rated as High. Efficacy was rated as Substantial. Efficiency was
evaluated as Substantial. As a result, an overall outcome rating is Satisfactory. Error! Reference source
not found.
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)
48. Gender. Literature on the impacts of disasters shows that women are often differently and
disproportionately affected by disasters. Although the project was not gender-tagged as this
requirement did not exist at appraisal, gender impacts were achieved by the project through gender-
sensitive approaches, specifically (a) participation of women in the consultations leading to decisions
on rehabilitations and investments, (b) engagement of women's labor force (for example, cash for
work), and (c) scaling-up of the successful experience of providing irrigated land to vulnerable groups
including women. Moreover, the National PIU was staffed with an experienced community participation
and gender specialist.
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49. Institutional strengthening was an integral part of the project, and its outcomes are discussed in
section II.B. The project contributed toward institutional capacity of DNPGCCA, MAG,7 MAH-GC, MH,8
MISPDAR,9 MPLAN,10 OSV,11 and SCAP-RU,12 due to improved institutional support for DRM capacity and
fiscal mobilization (see section II. B).
50. Poverty reduction and shared prosperity. One of the project goals was to reduce poverty and to
increase shared prosperity for the 4.37 million direct beneficiaries living in disaster-prone and poor
areas where they not only benefited from more resilient infrastructure but also from increased
opportunities in terms of increased cropland and rangeland. Moreover, the project provided temporary
work in all the targeted regions to implement the infrastructure activities. There are also indications
that the project had a positive impact on education, health—preventing deaths, injuries, and event-
triggered epidemics—safety, and mobility. Yet, the economic growth rate slowed down to 3.6 percent,
which translated into a 3 percent reduction in per capita income and 1.3 percentage points increase in
poverty to 42.9 percent in 2020, drawing 685,000 people into extreme poverty due to the July 2020
floods exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
51. Post-disaster response and reconstruction capacity. The project was instrumental in creating
solid emergency preparedness, response, and reconstruction capacity which includes a fully functional
database of risks in Niger. This was achieved through the project’s design that allowed to strengthen
DRM institutions in terms of EWSs, contingency planning, capacity to respond to a disaster and
reconstruct flood risk reduction infrastructure but more concretely enabled immediate post-disaster
response through the triggering of IRM/CERC. The two successful experiences with the CERC activation
allowed for the development of: (a) solid institutional capacities for post-disaster damage assessment;
(b) technical planning and implementation of response/reconstruction actions; and (c) efficient fiduciary
management of emergency funds, in line with flexibilities provided as part of the CERC.
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION
52. Following the 2012 floods, the key factors during project preparation were the challenges to
define realistic project objectives, to ensure a simple project design and appropriate selection of
stakeholders, and to establish adequate risk mitigation measures.
53. Realistic objectives. The PDOs were focused and realistic; however, as the project was prepared
in less than a year in a fragile operational environment, it was a challenge to set targets for flood
protection and sustainable land and water management interventions. However, following some
implementation experience, the outcomes and outputs were sharpened by amending the RF during the
7 Ministry of Agriculture (Ministère de l’Agriculture).
8 Ministry of Water Resources (Ministère de l’Hydraulique).
9 Ministry of Interior, Security, Decentralization and Customary and Religious Affairs ( Ministère de l’Intérieur, de la Sécurité
Publique, de la Décentralisation et des Affaires Coutumières et Religieuses ).
10 Ministry of Planning, Land Development and Community Development ( Ministère du Plan, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et
du Développement Communautaire).
11 Vulnerability Monitoring Observatories ( Observatoires de Suivi de la Vulnérabilité ).
12 Community-Based Early Warning and Emergency Response System ( Système Communautaire d’Alerte Précoce et de Réponse
aux Urgences).
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first, second, and third restructurings by setting more realistic targets and by relying on the United
Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) post-2016 flood assessment
prepared before the second restructuring.
54. Design challenges. Solutions applicable to the Niger context were difficult to articulate given the
large area of the country and the weak capacities of some stakeholder institutions. The original project
design benefited from lessons learned from previous projects (as listed on para. 6) and was
appropriately ambitious in institutional arrangements and type of activities despite the exogenous
factors affecting the country (section III.B). The design also allowed the project to adjust indicators and
activities to meet the challenges brought by the 2016 floods and the worsening FCV conditions,
including in Diffa where the Government declared a State of Emergency in 2016, which affected project
implementation. In fact, from project preparation to implementation, Niger was continuously facing a
security crisis in the areas bordering Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali, where armed groups carry out
repeated attacks against the security forces and civilians. A state of emergency was declared in three
project intervention areas (Diffa, Tahoua, and Tillaberi regions). Furthermore, the FCV conditions in
Niger continue to worsen with an influx of refugees fleeing conflicts in Nigeria and Mali, as well as a
combination of health (COVID-19), climate, and security shocks and crises that has hampered the
growth of Niger’s economy from 2019 to 2022.
55. Selection of implementing agencies. In the aftermath of the 2012 floods, the project housed the
National PIU in the most relevant institution, that is, Ministry of Planning, Land Development and
Community Development. However, through the first restructuring, the project was moved directly
under the Prime Minister’s Office to benefit from the increased authority, leverage, scope, and capacity
to move the project forward. The project overcame some of the initial implementation difficulties by
contracting Delegated Implementing Agencies to implement works and train beneficiaries, including
those in insecure project areas.
56. Adequacy of risk identification and mitigation measures. At appraisal, the project’s overall risk
was rightly categorized as ‘Substantial’ and remained unchanged thereafter until closing, as the FCV
concerns outweighed the Government’s encouraging response on DRM. Risk mitigation measures—and
the innovative CERC as part of project design—were effective and efficient to achieve the PDO and to
meet or exceeded the RF targets.
57. Reputational risks. The project incorporated several measures to ensure transparency and
accountability in implementation. They included a GRM with a specific indicator in the RF. This
mechanism enabled the population in general and vulnerable persons especially, during resettlement,
to use the project’s GRM instead of seeking legal recourse, although the latter remained available to
them if the former did not satisfy them. A proactive approach was also adopted to address or anticipate
beneficiaries’ grievances at a very early stage to resolve issues in a satisfactory manner.
58. Implementation capacity and sustainability. During preparation, the key concerns were low
implementation capacity of staff and constraints in hiring quality personnel. To meet World Bank
fiduciary standards and ensure efficient fund flow, a National PIU was created whose staff were
continuously strengthened through tailored training programs. Staffing plans were finalized before
appraisal and were updated after restructurings, while time-based consultancy contracts, World Bank
support, and training provided by World Bank staff and consultants were also used. World Bank
investment in capacity strengthening of government entities and the PIU was effective, as government
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entities and PIU staff actively prepared the PIDUREM (World Bank approved in April 2022). This capacity
strengthening is also sustainable, as government entities and select PIU staff are now implementing
PIDUREM, drawing on their PGRC-DU expertise.
59. Knowledge. The project design integrated knowledge generation and dissemination through the
improvement of the countrywide EWS capacity, equipment, and data acquisition. The project also
created an enabling environment for the inclusion of Earth Observation (EO) for project component
preparation as well as for needs assessment after the 2016 floods.
60. Procurement and FM. Assessments during project preparation pointed to high procurement and
FM risks due to weak fiduciary capacity. At appraisal, manuals on FM and procurement were prepared;
these manuals were updated over the course of the project. Procurement and FM support consultants
were hired to train and help bridge the staff capacity gaps in preparing timely accounts and reports that
were also monitored through two indicators in the RF.
61. Community participation. The project design incorporated the identification of beneficiaries
based on a transparent participatory process that was further strengthened during the second
restructuring. This measure increased confidence and resulted in a larger community endorsement of
the DRM process in the regions. The social team carried out tailor-made trainings at the local level to
improve understanding of DRM issues, especially appropriation by micro and small enterprises and
communities.
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION
62. Commitment to DRM process and system strengthening. The Prime Minister’s Office
demonstrated a strong commitment to improve flood protection and sustainable land and water
management resilience. The transfer of the National PIU under the aegis of the Prime Minister’s Office
further strengthened Government commitment to achieving the PDO and the IRIs and the generation
and use of scientific and technical DRM knowledge.
63. Funds flow, staffing, and procurement. Implementation started slowly, mainly because of the
lack of adequate management and staffing and delays in finalizing the feasibility of several infrastructure
interventions. The first restructuring in March 2016 put the project on a sustainable footing where IDA
and GEF disbursements significantly increased from 18 percent to 30 percent as well as 12 percent to
21 percent, respectively, by December 2017 MTR.
64. Restructuring. Overall project implementation consistently improved, following the project’s four
restructurings in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2021, particularly for Components 1 and 2 by the end of 2018
where the CERC trigger increased the disbursement of Component 1. These restructurings provided
further clarity to the RF and reallocated funds across components for greater effectiveness.
65. Collaborative and participatory approach. The National PIU sought collaboration with key
stakeholders as a key to successful project implementation: capacity building at all levels; data
acquisition; development of plans; and remarkably high level of active and productive participation by
community members, local organizations, and small and micro enterprises. Such collaboration and
participation led to a more effective implementation of activities than would have been otherwise the
case.
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Factors Subject to the World Bank Control
66. Adequacy of supervision. The 22 implementation support missions provided the National PIU
with extensive support from the World Bank. These missions made sure that the back-on-track action
plan suggested early on by the World Bank was effective in implementing mitigation measures. The
World Bank also ensured presence on the ground by leveraging World Bank staff from the Water Global
Practice and subsequently by establishing a locally based World Bank staff in the country office.
67. Regular, strategic, and outcome-focused support. The World Bank worked with the GoN and the
National PIU to complete the four restructurings on time. World Bank staff and consultants provided
expert guidance during regular missions and interim technical missions on procurement, finance,
safeguards, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). The ISRs candidly detailed project setbacks and
challenges and recorded the agreed solutions to overcome them. After the MTR, the progress toward
PDO was upgraded to ‘Satisfactory’ in April 2018, which was retained until project closing. The fourth
restructuring was able to upgrade the Implementation Progress in August 2022 to Satisfactory before
project closing.
Factors outside the Control of the Government and/or Implementing Agencies
68. The project was affected by exogenous and endogenous factors including: (a) a poor
macroeconomic outlook (pressure on inflation and strained public finances); (b) the CFA franc
fluctuation over the project lifetime, which favored the project from 2018 till 2022 (−12.1 percent CFA
Franc in relation to the US dollar during the February 2018-March 2022 depreciation trend); (c) COVID-
19; (d) security concerns, mainly stemming from non-state actors in several Niger regions (including
Tillabéri and Tahoua regions on Niger’s western border with Mali and Burkina Faso where a state of
emergency has been in effect since 2017, the Tahoua and Agadez regions at the northern border with
Mali and Libya, the Diffa region at the eastern and southern border, and in the Maradi region at the
southern border with Nigeria); (e) a steady increase in forced displacement with a growing cohort of
refugees (249,945) and internally displaced persons (264,257) at the end 2021; and (f) increasing
impacts due to changes in climatic conditions. Moreover, security concerns and the cyclical floods were
compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic that led to restrictions on movement and business hours and
the closure of the border with Nigeria, while the associated pause/termination of some project
investment undermined Niger’s economic activity and reversed some recent economic and social gains.
It is estimated that poverty has increased by 1.3 percentage points to 42.9 percent in 2020, drawing
685,000 people into extreme poverty.
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)
M&E Design
69. At appraisal, the M&E system was built upon the PAD RF to monitor the achievement of the PDO
and outcome indicators through regular monitoring of inputs and outputs. M&E was used as a
management tool with periodic reviews and audits, reporting of outputs to the World Bank, and
maintaining of records on thematic areas including (a) social and environmental monitoring, (b) regular
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project supervision, (c) physical progress monitoring and third-party quality audits, and (d) M&E of
results achieved. This was carried out by the regional implementing units on a monthly basis and
reported to the National PIU which in turn shared the reports on a quarterly basis with the World Bank.
Financial progress was reported through the quarterly interim financial reports (IFRs). In addition, a
third party was deployed for quality monitoring of works and compliance on social and environmental
aspects.
70. The M&E function was designed as a three-tier mechanism from a strategic high level under the
responsibility of the National Steering Committee, an intermediary level with the National PIU
responsible for the continuous coordination and reporting of the project achievements, and a lower
level supported by the Regional PIUs in charge of direct monitoring of physical progress on the ground.
An information management system (database) supported by different regional PIUs, regions, and
municipalities was developed online and made available to the public for transparency purposes.
71. The RF was revised under restructurings 1, 2, 3, and 4 including revision of PDO indicators and
targets, as previously described, to reflect implementation experience and adjust to changing
implementation circumstances. In general, the RF indicators during implementation were adequate to
measure the quantitative and qualitative impacts of the project.
M&E Implementation
72. During the project cycle, M&E implementation was mostly rated Satisfactory, except between
December 2015 and June 2016, when M&E was rated Moderately Satisfactory and Moderately
Unsatisfactory, respectively. The first M&E report did not provide an objective methodology to measure
indicators, and the project delivered the first M&E report only after 16 months of project effectiveness.
However, the M&E methodology improved continuously and resulted in an integrated database
combining information from procurement, FM, safeguards, and M&E, which provided an exhaustive
view about project implementation by municipality, by sector, by subcomponent, and by cluster of
beneficiaries. Starting April 2018 until project closure in October 2022, M&E implementation was
considered Satisfactory due to the quality and periodicity of project reporting, using the conventional
M&E system, and the completed design of a new M&E system with the Geo-Enabling initiative for
Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) finalized in June 2020. M&E activities were implemented using
KoBoToolBox/Access databases, communication supports, and environmental and social safeguards,
supported by regional offices.
M&E Utilization
73. M&E was used primarily to track and report on progress and to address key implementation issues
revealed by the physical progress on the ground or by control bureaus, or by implementation support
missions. The use of remote sensing tools, such as GEMS in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS)
and a vast country with security and accessibility challenges, helped M&E task team and the PIU to
monitor and evaluate the progress of infrastructure works. This allowed for flexibility and adaptation to
a changing and volatile operating environment. Utilization and achievements include the preparation
of 32 non-audit financial reports, audits of Project Preparation Fund (PPF) accounts from 2015 to 2021,
annual audits by the Court of Accounts (Cour des Comptes, 2015–2018), annual audits by the Public
Procurement Regulatory Agency, and the General State Inspection ( Inspection Général d’Etat) in 2016.
In addition, the National PIU received annual supervision missions from the Ministry of Planning and
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control missions from the Social Security and the General Tax Directorate (Direction Générale des
Impots).
74. Finally, the M&E was used to inform/ensure the presence of the project on the Internet through
the creation of two websites www.pgrcdu-niger.org, and http://pgrcdu-niger.com, as well as a Facebook
account.
Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E: Substantial
75. The M&E system, as designed and implemented, has performed well and was continuously rated
Satisfactory over the last five years of the project (2018–2022). It has allowed to assess the achievement
of the PDO and the intermediate indicators stated in the RF. Qualitative M&E reports and results were
timely disseminated and used to inform the management, communication, and implementation of the
project in all its dimensions.
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE
76. Environmental and social. The project was considered an environmental category ‘B’ project
since the impacts were anticipated to be small in scale and site specific and therefore manageable to an
accepted level. Five safeguard policies were triggered: (a) Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01), (b)
Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12), (c) Pest Management (OP/BP 4.09), (d) Physical Cultural
Resources (OP/BP 4.11), and (e) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50). Before appraisal,
the following safeguards instruments were prepared, consulted upon, and disclosed by the borrower
and the World Bank: Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), Resettlement Policy
Framework (RPF), and Pest Management Plan. For the project’s AF in 2019, the three instruments were
updated to reflect the addition of two regions, Tahoua and Agadez. For the IRM (CERC), PGRC-DU's
ESMF and RPF have been updated to consider the regions concerned by the IRM as well as the activities
identified in the Plan for Implementing Emergency Response (Plan de Mise en Oeuvre de la Reponse
d’Urgence (PMRU)). These documents were validated during January 31–February 1, 2017, in Tahoua,
by the ad hoc committee set up for this purpose by the Ministry of Environment, Urban Sewerage and
Sustainable Development (Ministère de l’Environnement, de la Salubrité Urbaine et du Développement
Durable).
77. During project implementation, a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) was prepared, consulted
upon, and disclosed for the drainage construction works in Tahoua and Konni in compliance with OP
4.12. The works will negatively affect 107 people who lose business structures, and/or some trees, or
will have temporary loss of revenue but there will not be any physical resettlement. However, the RAP
implementation plan was revised because of lack of funds for timely compensation payments. Instead
of proceeding with the compensation, the Konni municipality agreed with the affected people that they
would be rather exempted from daily taxes at the market site, which did not directly comply with the
provisions of RAP. To ensure compliance of this change in the process, the PIU has been asked to provide
details to show how this change in compensation method reflects the actual losses, what evaluation it
was based on, and whether this agreement was voluntary; and to provide minutes of the meeting where
this was agreed to by the project-affected persons (PAPs). The PIU is in the process of providing the
necessary details.
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78. The PIU developed a GRM according to the RPF, at three levels : village or project activity
location, community, and prefect levels. At each level, a GRM committee was constituted of various
local actors, including women, who could receive complaints in written or verbal manner. A GRM
Manual was prepared by the project and included specific timelines for handling complaints as well as
a tracking template. The project received only 19 complaints, which is a modest number given the scope
of the activities. This may point to lack of communication by the project toward the population on how
the GRM functions, what its role is, and how to access it. This point was also raised during the World
Bank’s supervision missions, to be remedied by ensuring the population knows how to use the
mechanism and that the committee members know how to handle complaints. The need for regular
verification of the full functionality and accessibility of a grievance mechanism in practice can be taken
as a lesson learned for subsequent projects.
79. Environmental and social compliance was rated Moderately Satisfactory . During project
implementation, environmental and social screening of subprojects was not systematically done despite
the supervision mission recommendations, and civil works started before screenings or in some
instances before safeguards documents were prepared and their implementation. Similarly, it was
noted that a RAP may have been necessary for some of the works. To address and remedy any potential
non-compliance, an environmental and social audit was conducted regarding specific works on draining
pavements. The results of the audit note that there was no economic or physical displacement, only
very limited temporary restriction of access. This illustrates a certain degree of lack of compliance with
safeguards requirements by the PIU, which is likely due to lack of capacity on environmental and social
safeguards. This may be attributed to the fact that the PIU had only one specialist at the project start
who covered both environmental and social aspects. This was remedied during project implementation
to ensure these tasks were managed by dedicated specialists. Adequate E&S staffing throughout project
cycle is another lesson learned on environmental and social safeguards.
80. Financial Management (FM). Throughout the project implementation, the PIU complied with its
FM reporting requirements, including timely submission of IFRs and audit reports for the annual
accounts. However, the annual accounts from 2018 to 2020 were certified with a qualified opinion due
to some expenses that were either unjustified or insufficiently justified. The PIU worked diligently to
address these issues. As a result, in 2021 the qualifications on unjustified advances were lifted based on
evidence deemed acceptable, and the annual accounts were certified as unqualified. At the project’s
closing date, there were no cases of ineligible expenditures on IDA funds. Overall, the FM performance
was rated Substantial, while the FM risk was rated Moderately Satisfactory.
81. Procurement. During the implementation, long delays in the awarding of contracts were noted,
particularly at the evaluation stage. The cause of these delays is linked to the difficulties in mobilizing
members of the ad hoc contract evaluation committees. Delays have also been observed in the
execution of activities due to the failure of companies. A Project Procurement Risk assessment (PPR)
was conducted, and all the migration measures have been applied. The relevant procurement
documents have been used. The procurement risk has been rated Substantial, and the overall
performance is Moderately Satisfactory.
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C. BANK PERFORMANCE
Quality at Entry
82. The project’s quality at entry is rated Satisfactory. The project intended to respond to the
emergency situation of the severe 2012 flood event that had significant negative impacts on Niger’s
cities and counties. Informed by lessons learned on DRM system from World Bank experience in Niger
and the region, the project design responded to the vulnerabilities and priority needs of Niger, a country
that is highly exposed to multifaceted risks in a context of fragility, insecurity, and rapid urbanization.
The project was aligned with and informed by all World Bank priorities and GoN policies and strategies.
The project’s ability to adapt effectively and quickly to the various changes and events throughout its
implementation confirmed the project’s quality design and relevance. The project capitalized the
lessons learned from the Local Infrastructure Development Project (PDIL, P095949), which closed in
January 2013, and which confirmed that local government authorities, in consultation with community
leaders and other key stakeholders, are better positioned than the Central Government to prioritize
urban development and interventions aimed at increasing resilience to disasters. By positively affecting
more than 4.3 million Nigeriens as evidenced by the first PDO indicator, the project benefited the
poorest Nigeriens and the most climate-vulnerable districts, sometimes in remote or insecure
environments (Diffa, Tillabéri, and so on).
83. The project was prepared over a period of 7.7 months under regular procedures . The project
Concept Review was held on April 22, 2013, and the project was approved by the Board on December
11, 2013. Project readiness was fully achieved by effectiveness (August 15, 2014) with all prerequisite
environmental and social instruments developed and disclosed (ESMF, Environmental and Social Impact
Assessment [ESIA], RPF, and Social Management Plan); a procurement strategy (Project Procurement
Strategy for Development) and plan for the 18 first months and a Project Implementation Manual
adopted; a comprehensive RF developed, with indicators covering all results areas, including gender
breakdown, baselines and targets; and a monitoring and reporting plan designed. Provisions for
institutional mechanism, financial arrangements, and implementation modalities were agreed upon,
with clear roles and responsibilities of the steering committee and the technical committee, and the
National PIU was being built up and equipped with necessary management tools (staffing, computerized
financial and accounting system, internal auditor, IRM Operational Manual, and so on). The Operational
Risk Assessment Framework identified and assessed the risks that the project would face, and adequate
mitigation measures were proposed. Continuous risks reassessments were done during the project
lifetime.
Quality of Supervision
84. World Bank performance in supervision was Satisfactory. During the project’s eight-year
lifetime, the World Bank team organized 22 logistical and technical missions to support project
implementation and track progress, while project performance and risk ratings were provided through
16 ISRs. Throughout the life of the project, an infrastructure specialist and a water specialist from the
Water Global Practice based in Niamey were included as part of the task team. From 2019 to project
closure, a Disaster Risk Management Specialist (ETC) was recruited in the Niamey office. These three
Bank staff provided dedicated close implementation support to the project, allowing for a stronger
presence in the field, important for a project covering various regions and given the large size of the
country and the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The project was rated Satisfactory for progress
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toward development objectives in all ISRs from April 2018 until project closure at the end in October
2022. However, from November 2014 to February 2018, the project was rated Moderately Satisfactory
due to delays of the recruitment of regional PIU teams, a slow start of project activities (including signing
of agreements between the project and its partners 10 months after effectiveness), weak capacities
issues, and poor quality of technical and procurement documentation. Subsequently, the project was
rated Satisfactory, as the MTR (December 3–7, 2017) and a follow-up implementation support mission
(February 12–23, 2018) had resolved the key implementation constraints, resulting in an IDA
disbursement increase from 55 percent to 70 percent; the GEF disbursement increase to 30 percent;
and tangible results in sustainable land and water management, flooding prevention, and the national
risk information and EWS in Niamey, Dosso, Tillabéri, Diffa, and so on. These post-MTR achievements,
marking a real turning point of the project, are the results of close supervision and extensive support
provided by the World Bank team that allowed the project to continuously achieve remarkable results.
85. Environmental and social safeguards issues during project implementation:
(a) Insufficient environmental and social staffing at PIU level (one specialist for both sectors);
(b) Low involvement of the project’s environmental and social staff in the preparation and
analysis of relevant bidding documents in the field;
(c) Insufficient signage and protective barriers to block access to work sites;
(d) Poor implementation of site ESMPs and non-compliance by contractors with environmental
and social clauses on sites
(e) The need to improve GRM effectiveness (accessibility and communication) at the most
decentralized level of the activities and verify its functionality; and
(f) The RAP implementation approach for the drainage works in Tahoua and Konni; and
(g) The need to enhance the communication aspects with the communities.
86. On fiduciary aspects, the project experienced the issues of:
(a) Poorly or insufficiently justified expenses becoming ineligible expenditures for an amount of
XOF 264.37 million;
(b) Use of the project interest account to meet unplanned requests from sector ministries,
without compliance with the Note de Service dated December 5, 2019, which specifies the
eligible activities of this fund, signed by the Director of the Prime Minister's Office;
(c) Long delays in the processing of requests for proposal and analyzing bids, often compounded
by the unavailability of certain members of the evaluation committees, which come from
sectoral ministries, at specific times;
(d) Long delays in the execution of a certain number of contracts (AHA, collectors, dikes, traffic
lights, and so on), including those relating to IRM, due to COVID-19 outbreak, and low
performance of some contractors;
(e) Delays in the World Bank ‘no objections’ due to task team leader changes in 2018–2020,
which was the cruising period of the activities;
(f) The misunderstanding about the elimination of the double review by the national
procurement control agencies;
(g) The lack of FM autonomy of PIUs at the regional level; and
(h) The misuse and lack of maintenance of the material and equipment provided to public
institutions or implementing partners.
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87. To overcome all those issues, the World Bank provided close and qualitative supervision and
strong support to the GoN to improve its capacity for compliance with environmental and social
safeguards and with procurement and FM.
88. During the life cycle of the project, the World Bank team strived to achieve the project's
development objective through adapting to unpredictable events, triggered by climate shocks or
security threats that created new demands, and resolving all shortcomings arising from
implementation. Four restructurings (2016, 2017, 2019, and 2021) and one AF (2019) have allowed the
project to stay on track and reach successful completion. Furthermore, the team mobilized CREWS TF
resources to provide additional technical value and specialized expertise in EWSs performance,
strengthening the capacity of five national implementing institutions, with parallel support provided by
Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI) and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
89. The World Bank team's reporting was candid, comprehensive, and of good quality ,
appropriately covering the implementation challenges with relevant operational recommendations.
Bottlenecks in the progress of project activities were systematically reported in the ISRs and objective
ratings were given to the various performance indicators. Reporting to GEF and CREWS was also timely
and adequately processed.
Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance
90. The World Bank’s performance in ensuring both readiness and quality at entry and close and agile
supervision to adapt through four restructurings justifies the overall rating of Satisfactory for the World
Bank’s performance.
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
91. The sustainability of investments is a critical concern. The project highlighted the critical
importance of ensuring high quality standards during the construction of infrastructure, as well as
proper maintenance and operation of such infrastructure over time. The flood protection investments
were implemented to be maintained with simple upkeep by existing management committees.
However, the sustainability of these investments depends on the ability of these committees, in a
context of weak technical and financial capacity of beneficiary municipalities. The mid-term review of
the project identified several risks, including land issues and shortcomings in quality supervision and
capacity of service providers. Specific mitigation measures were taken to address these risks, including
effective land management, better stakeholder engagement, improved technical services, and control
missions supervision by the National PIU and Regional PIUs. However, the risks remain, and the
sustainability of the project outputs will depend on continued attention to these issues.
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
92. The strategic anchorage of the project at the Prime Minister’s Office ensured successful multi-
sectoral and multidimensional coordination and effective leadership. The project involved eight
sectoral ministries, six regions, 82 municipalities and a number of other stakeholders, requiring strong
coordination and leadership by a powerful and transversal institution. This is of particular importance
in flood resilience and urban development projects where interministerial and stakeholder coordination
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is key to achieving results on the ground, reducing existing risks and avoiding creation of new risks,
avoiding fragmentation of activities, and facilitating interministerial coordination and synergies. This is
also aligned with Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recommendations.
93. Good technical studies and appropriate control missions promote investment sustainability and
long-term development outcomes. To guarantee the effective and efficient execution of investments
within the required budget and time frame, it is essential to have good study and control missions,
quality technical designs, recruitment of firms with good technical experience and operational
organization, and quality control of implementation. This problem of sometimes poor private contractor
performance was noted at the national level during technical audits and the review of Niger’s portfolio
under the Country Portfolio Performance Review 2020–2022, which for the PGRC-DU delayed key
operations such as the Diffa dike and other dikes along the Niger River, the Boubon landfill, and the
Sirba flood control structure, which will be taken over by PIDUREM (P175857), which is the follow-on
project after the PGRC-DU. Sustainable O&M in a weak capacity operating context must be handled by
setting up an infrastructure management plan and local memorandums of understanding or protocols
for investment O&M, including municipality and community participation.
94. Integrating fragility into project design and using remote sensing and monitoring technologies
improves project implementation in remote, insecure, or difficult-to-access areas in FCV countries. By
mitigating probable exposure to security risks and threats (as it was the case in Tillabéri and Diffa),
anticipating unpredictable events or implementation challenges, and swiftly adapting to a volatile
operating environment, the use of digital solutions, for example, GEMS or the new Project360, helped
the project develop flexibility and adaptation to the changing local context. This good practice was
confirmed with the FY22 RRA portfolio review that revealed the need to proactively identify FCV risks
and implementation constraints and to integrate them into project design and to internalize the
externalities by working at the local level, including through decentralized project implementation and
stronger territorial presence, complemented by remote supervision. In a large country like Niger, this
approach is amenable for decentralized operations in areas with potential security risks.
95. Early hiring of staff in regional PIUs can help quick-start project activities and avoid
implementation delays and shortcomings. The project experienced several shortcomings at the
beginning because of the absence of regional PIUs. But as soon as the staff was recruited and started to
deliver, the project took off and the ratings became Satisfactory. It is important for urban projects
including secondary cities with low capacities to anticipate the staffing of regional PIUs and ensure early
implementation and disbursements.
96. Solving fiduciary problems such as low disbursement rates, procurement delays, contracting
double review, ineligible expenses, and so on requires a common vision about the project’s
performance and capacity-building activities. The FM and procurement trajectory of this project is not
unique but common in many other operations in the region. Therefore, it is extremely important that
key actors involved in project management and implementation share the same vision of performance,
result-oriented actions, transformational impact, and outcomes and collaborate closely together
throughout project implementation. This requires initial and capacity building during the project’s life,
in parallel with staff turnover in National PIUs, ministries, and agencies. To avoid misuse of the project
interest account, it is necessary to ensure wide dissemination of eligible activities and to build the
capacity of implementing partners on the procedures for funding activities. Regarding the utilization
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and maintenance of the material/equipment provided to implementing partners, it is important to
establish clear guidance and rules, utilization protocols, and controls by an internal auditor.
97. The innovative integration of flood risk management, drainage, land restoration, water
management, urban development, planning capacities, early warning, preparedness, and response in
a holistic manner proved to be an effective strategy for designing and supporting urban resilience.
Protecting cities and communities from floods requires the combination of structural and nonstructural
measures. The PGRC-DU’s investments in flood control barriers and watershed treatment are good
practices. However, costly structural risk mitigation alone is insufficient for effective flood risk
management and needs to be combined with cost-effective nonstructural measures, for example, flood
risk mapping and communication, land use planning, flood forecasting and early warning, coordinated
operation of flood management facilities, and emergency preparedness and recovery planning
measures. Hence, an integrated flood risk management strategy is needed to balance disaster risk
reduction and preparedness measures, by defining minimum levels of acceptable risk, to save lives in
the short term while also focusing on long-term risk reduction. Even though the high level of insecurity
delayed activities in some regions (Diffa and Tillabéri), the achievements were outstanding, and
confirmed the relevance of the holistic approach that really brought transformational impacts to
vulnerable cities and communities.
98. An emergency response project like this one, which integrates forward looking urban resilience
considerations, can serve a strong foundation for future larger and more transformative multisectoral
urban resilience operations. The outcomes of this project were scaled up in the US$250M IDA-financed
Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (PIDUREM - P175857 2022-2028), which aims to increase resilience to
floods, and improve urban management and access to basic services in selected municipalities in Niger.
The PIDUREM (i) improved the balance between structural and non-structural approached to flood
resilience mentioned in the lesson above, (ii) put greater emphasis on strengthening planning and
management capacities of municipalities to improve resilience within the country’s decentralization
framework, (iii) adopted a spatial approach in the design of project activities to better account for socio-
economic vulnerabilities, gaps in basic services, and exposure to fragility risks in addition to climate
risks, and (iv) scaled up regional implementation units to cover the wider geographical scope. The
positive results and the lessons of the PGRC-DU created the necessary technical and implementation
capacities necessary for the preparation of the PIDUREM.
99. In countries with limited human capacity and financial resources, capacity building is cost-
effective and promotes the responsible participation of the actors involved. The PGRC-DU developed
a consolidated approach, based on the complementarity between the stormwater management system
and the national local DRM system related to the establishment and use of EWSs, prevention measures,
and capacity-building efforts. The project benefited from the capacity-building activities of key
hydromet structures and other EWS actors (DGPC, CC/SAP, and the Directorate for Disaster Prevention
and Warnings (Direction de la Prévention et d'Alerte aux Catastrophes), carried out with support from
CREWS. Also, the network of about 600 women leaders trained by the MAH/GC, with the support of
CREWS, on DRM in Niger’s eight regions helped in the gender voice and leadership in the DRM decision-
making process.
.
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ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS
A. RESULTS INDICATORS
A.1 PDO Indicators
Objective/Outcome: To improve Niger’s resilience to natural hazards
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 4,000,000.00 4,300,000.00 4,375,633.00
17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Female beneficiaries Percentage 50.00 50.00 50.00 49.16
Comments (achievements against targets):
Final target increased with the AF to account for geographical extension.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Targeted flood protection and Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
sustainable land and water
management interventions 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
contributing to increased
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resilience (% of targeted
interventions implemented)
Comments (achievements against targets):
As agreed at MTR, the list of activities to be considered for measurements of this indicator was reduced from nine to five, as the project costs were
substantially underestimated at project preparation, rendering the delivery of 4 activities no longer possible. The indicator focuses on (a) regulation of
structures along tributaries, (b) rehabilitation/development of pond control structures, (c) rehabilitation of old natural drains that have collapsed, and (d)
rehabilitation of drainage gutters/collectors/sewers. This indicator has been updated through the simple restructuring as part of the AF.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Performance of the early Number 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00
warning and response system
for natural rapid onset hazards 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
(e.g. floods, strong winds, wild
landfires)
Comments (achievements against targets):
Target unit was changed during the first restructuring from 100% to the number 5, representing the 5 institutions involved in EWS (MAH/GC, DGPC,
CC/SAP, DMN, and DHL as the five national structures which implemented CREWS), to better assess performance.
A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators
Component: Comp. 1: Flood Risk Management Investments
Indicator Name Unit of Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
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Measure Target Completion
Sources of drinking water Number 0.00 260.00 450.00 492.00
rehabilitated or developed
17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
Target was decreased in the first restructuring from 260 to 190 to reflect the project’s reduced activities, but under the AF in 2019 the target was increased
to 450 to reflect the emergency intervention in Diffa with reallocation of a large number of people.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Targeted irrigable land Hectare(Ha) 0.00 2,000.00 1,700.00 1,647.27
rehabilitated
17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
Under the AF, the end target was decreased from 2000 to 1700 ha to adequately reflect the implementation experience of the original project and the
Immediate Response Mechanism (IRM). By project's end, the indicator target could not be fully achieved due to security reasons, as GoN had banned
gatherings following its declaration of a State of Emergency in Diffa starting in 2016. Hence insecurity prevented the rehabilitation work for the irrigated
parameters (AHA) in Diffa, despite availability/ validation of the preliminary and detailed design.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Watershed protection and land Hectare(Ha) 0.00 6,500.00 6,500.00 17,020.00
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restoration interventions 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
measured by sub-indicators
below
Sand dune fixation Hectare(Ha) 0.00 5,500.00 5,500.00 6,000.00
Restoration of degraded land Hectare(Ha) 0.00 6,500.00 6,500.00 11,020.00
Stonewalls Kilometers 0.00 200.00 10.00 80.59
Dike protection Kilometers 0.00 50.00 50.00 47.57
Comments (achievements against targets):
The AF separated watershed protection and land restoration into 2 indicators due to the divergent units of measurement (ha; km). Ultimately, the indicator
was maintained, and the required distinction for accurate measurement/ reporting was made through the introduction of 4 sub-indicators: Sand dune
fixation (Ha); Restoration of degraded land (Ha); Stonewalls (Km); Dike protection (Km).
Restoration of degraded land (Ha): Large over-achievement is explained by the inclusion of works under the IRM 2016 for which resources were
taken from the PGRC-DU funding and reimbursed through the AF without revising the target value of the indicator.
Stonewalls (Km): Large over-achievement is explained by activities in Agadez, Tahoua, Loubé, Bogon, Azzem following requests from municipalities
in 2022 for protection of Koris and school enclosures, alongside rehabilitation of collapsed classrooms in Loube.
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Dike protection (Km): Indicator was modified from ‘Live fencing’ to ‘dike protection’ during the AF due to implementation experience that
Live fencing is not feasible as initially planned. Although all planned dike protection infrastructures were realized at 100%, the slight
underachievement of the target is due to the fact that dyke construction in the regions of Dosso and Tillabéri was completed with shorter dykes
than originally planned.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Drainage infrastructure Kilometers 0.00 23.50 23.50 120.95
rehabilitation
19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Drainage Kilometers 0.00 10.00 10.00 8.82
19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Drainage pavement Kilometers 0.00 20.00 20.00 9.30
19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Koris Kilometers 0.00 5.00 5.00 6.40
19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
The large over-achievement is due to the rehabilitation of not only primary drainage networks but also of additional secondary and tertiary drainage
networks which initially were not planned, but which GoN requested due to their level of degradation.
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New Indicators introduced through the AF to capture intervention in Agadez and Tahoua.
The underachievement of
1. Drainage infrastructure rehabilitated (floods) is due to the prioritization by GoN to rehabilitate damaged hydro-agricultural drainage infrastructure
instead (i.e. indicator 4) in order to mitigate the severe economic loss for farmers. Hence, while indicator 4 with irrigated parameters (AHA) was
overachieved, other drainage infrastructure here (indicator 4.1) was underachieved.
2. Drainage pavement is due to the cancellation of a 1.5 km section of paved road in the town of Birni Konni, which GoN delivered under another
project. The freed-up IDA funds were used in the town of Konni to excavate a pond and create its embankment, which serves as a water outlet for
nearby drainage collectors and the roadway.
For Koris, the final target of Koris was revised to 5km with the AF to reflect the postponed infrastructure rehabilitation in Tahoua, rendering the original
target of 21.5km no longer feasible.
Component: Comp. 2: Capacity Building for Urban Development and Disaster Risk Management
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Development and/or updating Number 0.00 39.00 25.00 26.00
of urban master plans and local
development plans 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
Target decreased during the AF as the target couldn’t be achieved due to the country's institutional framework at the time, whereby local elections had
been postponed to 2020, and the 14 urban audits (that were counted towards the final target of 39) could not be realized.
Indicator Name Unit of Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
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Measure Target Completion
Percentage of female Percentage 0.00 25.00 25.00 23.27
participation in decision
committees for development 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
and/or updating urban master
plans and municipal
development plans
Comments (achievements against targets):
As the MTR identified that participation of women in municipal councils cannot be reported due to the postponing of municipal elections to 2020, the 2019
AF agreed to change the indicator to measure participation of women in developing regional and/or local plans.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Percentage of municipal Percentage 0.00 5.00 4.00 5.00
budget allocated to solid waste
collection and 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
processing/transformation
Comments (achievements against targets):
Revised to 4% during the AF due to the difficulty of municipalities to report on drainage maintenance.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
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Support preparedness and Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes
emergency response
(measured by sub-indicators 19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
below)
Fully functional database of Yes/No N Yes Yes Yes
risk in Niger
Support to Civil Protection to Yes/No N Yes Yes Yes
strengthening response
capacity (facilities,
equipment, training)
Support to National DRM Number 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
agencies (Equipment,
training)
Comments (achievements against targets):
New indicator was introduced during the AF to capture the DRM interventions.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Support urban development Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes
(measured by sub-indicators
below) 19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Area with detailed maps in Square 0.00 400.00 400.00 780.00
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digital and paper formats kilometer(km
2)
Trained people on digital Number 0.00 200.00 200.00 76.00
cartography
Number of local innovation Number 0.00 8.00 8.00 5.00
projects supported
Comments (achievements against targets):
New indicators were introduced by the 2019 AF to capture the new activities to promote ICTs. Reasons for non- or over-achievement of some end targets:
Area with detailed maps in digital and paper formats: the actual result reached 780 km2; the large overachievement is due to the fact that the
original target covered mapping of only 6 cities, while the project mapped a total of 8 cities (adding Maradi and Zinder).
Trained people on digital cartography: (i) start delays of ICT activities, (ii) start delay of academic activities and (iii) security-related postponement
by GoN of the Dec 18, 2019 festivities in Tillaberi, rendering the co-financing for the ITIKAR start-up no longer feasible.
Number of local innovation projects supported : (i) Rigorous candidate selection criteria and (ii) security-related cancellation of festival events for
young.
Component: Comp. 3: Project Management
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Quality and timely submission Yes/No Yes Yes Yes Yes
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of Procurement and financial 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
management reporting
Quality and timely submission Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes
of procurement reporting
19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Quality and timely submission Yes/No No Yes Yes Yes
of Financial Management
reporting 19-Feb-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
As evidenced by Procurement Review and Financial Management Assessment this indicator continues to be achieved satisfactorily.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Planned project activities Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 90.45
implemented
17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
The list of project activities has been updated, to take in account activities financed under the FA.
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
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Grievances registered related Percentage 0.00 80.00 80.00 90.00
to delivery of project benefits
that are actually addressed 19-Mar-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Comments (achievements against targets):
The Project did not report on this indicator in the semester report. The Bank team requested a detailed list of Grievances to better assess the Grievance
Redress Mechanism.
Component: Comp. 4: Contingency Component
Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Indicator Name Baseline Original Target
Measure Target Completion
Time taken the Weeks 0.00 4.00 4.00 8.00
preparation/submission of the
activation package by the 17-Oct-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022
Client for an eligible crisis or
emergency triggering an
Immediate Response
Mechanism (IRM)
Comments (achievements against targets):
The activation of the IRM is a two-phase process that includes: (i) the preparation/submission of the activation package by the Client, and (ii) the
approval/disbursement of funds by the Bank. The initial indicator does not reflect the responsibility of the Client. Hence, the MTR agreed to refocus the
indicator on the time elapsed for preparation/submission of activation package by the Government and to exclude the Bank's processing time, which could
lead to delays that are outside the scope of the project.
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B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT
Objective/Outcome 1: To improve the Recipient’s resilience to natural hazards through selected disaster risk management interventions in targeted
project sites
PDO1. Direct project beneficiaries exceeded (almost achieved when disaggregated by
percentage of female)
Outcome Indicators
PDO2. Targeted flood protection and sustainable land and water management interventions
achieved
1. Sources of drinking water exceeded
2. Targeted irrigable land rehabilitation almost achieved
Intermediate Results Indicators
3. Watershed protection and land restoration significantly exceeded
4. Drainage infrastructure rehabilitation achieved
1. 492 sources of drinking water rehabilitated or developed
2. 1,641.27 ha of targeted irrigable land rehabilitated
3. 17,020 ha watershed protected, and land restored
3.1. 6,000 sand dunes fixed
3.2. 11,020 ha land degraded restored
Key Outputs by Component
3.3. 80.59 km of stonewalls built
(linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1)
3.4. 47.57 km of dikes protected
4. 120.95 km of drainage infrastructure rehabilitated
4.1. 8.82 km of drainage built
4.2. 9.3 km of drainage pavement built
4.3. 6.4 km of koris built
Objective/Outcome 2: To improve the Recipient’s resilience to natural hazards strengthening of the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and
effectively to an eligible crisis or an emergency
PDO3. Performance of the early warning and response system for natural rapid onset hazards
Outcome Indicators
achieved
Intermediate Results Indicators 1. Urban master plans and local development plans exceeded
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2. Female participation in decision committees for development and/or updating urban master
plans and municipal development plans almost achieved
3. Municipal budget allocated to solid waste collection and processing/transformation
exceeded
4. Support preparedness and emergency response achieved
5. Support urban development achieved
1. 26 urban master plans and local development plans achieved
2. 23.37% females participated in decision committees for development and/or update of
urban master plans and municipal development plans
3. 5% municipal budget was allocated to solid waste collection and processing/transformation
4. Support preparedness and emergency response achieved
4.1. Database of risk in Niger is fully functional
Key Outputs by Component
4.2. Support to Civil Protection to strengthening response capacity achieved
(linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2)
4.3. Support to urban development achieved
4.4. Support to 10 National DRM agencies achieved
5. Support urban development achieved
5.1. 780 km2 of area with detailed maps in digital and paper formats achieved
5.2. 76 people trained on digital cartography
5.3. 5 local innovation projects supported
No specific PDO for CERC activation but could be considered under Objective/Outcome 1 and 2
Outcome Indicators No Indicator
Intermediate Results Indicators 1. CERC activation
Key Outputs by Component 1. 8 weeks taken by the Client for the preparation/submission of the activation package to
(linked to the achievement of the overall project) trigger the IRM only achieved half target
No specific PDO for project management but could be considered under Objective/Outcome 1 and 2
Outcome Indicators No Indicator
Intermediate Results Indicators 1. Procurement and financial management reporting achieved
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2. Planned project activities achieved
3. Grievance Redress Mechanism exceeded
1. Quality and timely procurement and FM reporting achieved
1.1. Quality and timely submission of procurement reporting achieved
Key Outputs by Component
1.2. Quality and timely submission of FM reporting achieved
(linked to the achievement of the overall project)
2. 89.92% of planned project activities implemented
3. 90% grievances registered related to delivery of project benefits and addressed
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ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION
A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS
Name Role
Preparation
Richard James Task Team Leader
Ibrah Rahamane Sanoussi Procurement Specialist
Beth Wanjeri Mwangi Financial Management Specialist
Liba Chaja Strengerowski Social Specialist
Amadou Konare Environmental Specialist
Paivi Koskinen-Lewis Social Specialist
Supervision/ICR
Claudia Ruth Soto Orozco Task Team Leader
Mahamadou Bambo Sissoko Procurement Specialist
Sidy Diop Procurement Specialist
Maman Hassane Gabari Procurement Specialist
Helsy Priscilla Damiano Financial Management Specialist
Ahohouindo Mongnihoude Jean L Gbaguidi Financial Management Specialist
Illya Miko Team Member
Mamadou Ali Boureima Team Member
Salifou Abdou Dan Baba Procurement Team
Abdouramane Abdoulaye Saley Team Member
Mohamed Nanzoul Team Member
Vivien Deparday Team Member
Ibrah Hachimou Environmental Specialist
Koffi Hounkpe Team Member
Taibou Adamou Maiga Team Member
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Paivi Koskinen-Lewis Social Specialist
Taoufiq Bennouna Environmental Specialist
Cecile Lorillou Team Member
Kristyna Bishop Social Specialist
Demba Balde Social Specialist
Daniel P. Gerber Team Member
Sung Heng C. Kok Shun Team Member
Hadidia Diallo Djimba Team Member
Brahim Ould Abdelwedoud Task Team Leader
Sylvie Debomy Task Team Leader
Sabine Beddies Task Team Leader
Jean-Batpiste Migraine Task Team Leader
Fadi Doumani Consultant
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B. STAFF TIME AND COST
Staff Time and Cost
Stage of Project Cycle
No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs)
Preparation
FY13 7.000 182,732.94
FY14 17.153 351,663.68
FY15 0 0.00
Total 24.15 534,396.62
Supervision/ICR
FY14 7.841 50,101.09
FY15 23.853 170,591.82
FY16 18.332 134,365.22
FY17 33.021 161,687.44
FY18 37.785 479,595.50
FY19 32.013 586,877.90
FY20 53.788 532,154.87
FY21 105.190 583,864.67
FY22 90.532 635,751.66
FY23 30.048 247,511.97
Total 432.40 3,582,502.14
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ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT
IDA Parent
IDA Parent
IDA and AF
TF Amount and AF TF Amount Percentage of
Amount Amount at
at Approval Amount at at Closing Third
Components at Approval Third
(US$, Closing (US$, Restructuring
(US$, Restructuring
millions) (US$, millions) (%)
millions) (US$,
millions)
millions)
Component 1: 70.0 6.65 76.30 77.7 6.64 102
Flood Risk
Management
Investments
Component 2: 22.0 — 26.00 21.1 — 81
Capacity Building
for Urban
Development
and Disaster Risk
Management
Component 3: 5.0 — 9.20 11.1 — 120
Project
Management
Component 4: 0.0 — 13.50 4.6 — 34
Contingency
Component
Total 100.0 6.65 125.00 114.45 6.64 92
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ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
I. Ex Ante Economic Analysis Review
1. November 2013 PAD. The US$106.65 million PGRC-DU was declared effective in August 2014 with
a duration of seven years. Its objective was to support the Government in rehabilitating and scaling up
the DRM infrastructure and restoring productive activities affected by the 2012 flooding disaster faced by
Niger. The PAD included a back-of-the-envelope economic analysis where the US$64 million damages
were assessed in 2012 while the 175 victims were mentioned but not accounted for in monetary terms in
the damages. The 2012 damages were considered as benefits to accrue every three years as the cycle of
serious floods was reported every three years based on the analysis assumptions. Over 25 years, the costs
considered were the PGRC-DU plus an undisclosed amount for O&M. The NPV ranged between US$76
million and US$189 million while the internal rate of return (IRR) ranged between 23 percent and 33
percent and the present value of the benefit-cost ratio ranged between 2.33 and 3.10 and discounted
between 5 percent and 20 percent while a sensitivity analysis considered a reduction in benefits and
increase in cost of 20 percent. The project investment scope included (a) rehabilitating the existing urban
and rural flood control, irrigation, and drainage infrastructures that were destroyed during floods by
‘building back better’; (b) building new flood control, drainage, and irrigation infrastructure to control
future floods by regulating water flow; (c) improving water management through rehabilitation of
improved watersheds and land management through sustainable land management; (d) rehabilitating
and developing infrastructure in Niamey that was severely affected by floods and accounts for 40 percent
of all the urban population in Niger; (e) strengthening DRM and social accountability of the Central
Government, local government institutions, elected officials, and civil society; (f) strengthening capacity
for disaster risk identification, monitoring, EWS, preparedness, and response to such events; and (g)
promoting post-disaster economic recovery and livelihoods in the project areas. Moreover, the
investments were to reap benefits in terms of increasing the rice area harvested, yield, and productivity
leading to rate of return ranging between 23 percent and 33 percent. The project was also reported to
have many tangible and intangible direct and indirect potential benefits on DRM, agriculture productivity,
employment, and poverty alleviation in rural areas that were qualitatively mentioned in terms of (a)
reversing land degradation, soil erosion, deforestation, risk of pest outbreaks for crops, decrease in crop
and livestock productivity, and decline in agricultural production potential; (b) strengthening DRM and
technical capacity of all the participating agencies involved in DRM; (c) strengthening institutional capacity
of all such agencies involved in project implementation; (d) improving the consultation with stakeholders
and beneficiaries and coordination among participating agencies resulting in better information and
knowledge flow as well as social accountability and improved governance; (e) increasing preparedness
and timely response through better planning, coordination, and monitoring; (f) having a positive fiscal
impact in the project area; and (g) generating employment opportunities.
2. March 2016 first restructuring ex ante economic analysis review. There was no update to the
economic analysis in the first restructuring paper as some costs were reshuffled across subcomponents
and a target output was reduced.
3. March 2017 second restructuring ex ante economic analysis review. The CERC was triggered,
and economic analysis was not updated in the second restructuring paper as some costs were reshuffled
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across subcomponents and target outputs were adjusted. The damages of mid-2016 flooding in Niger
were reported by UNOCHA but were not monetized.
4. September 2019 AF/third restructuring ex ante economic analysis review. The total AF of US$25
million was to be disbursed over two years. The proposed replenishment of US$13.5 million did not
require to update the economic analysis as there were no new activities while all project activities
remained valid. Still, the new activities proposed a total amount of US$11.5 million (US$6.5 million for
rehabilitation of dikes, drainage, koris, and pond control infrastructure and US$4 million to support urban
development through ICT activities) where an economic analysis was apparently carried out indicating the
feasibility of this operation. The analysis focused only on the additional activities under this AF and did
not include activities that were originally identified by the parent project. While it is mentioned that the
development impact of the AF new activities was positive and substantial, no figures or analysis in the
main text or as an annex were available to review and reanalyze.
5. June 2021 amendment letter extending the closing date to October 2022 allowed all the ongoing
activities to be finalized which did not have any bearing on the economic analysis, except on the
disbursement spread over a longer period which was negligible.
II. Ex Post Economic Analysis
6. Not all benefits accruing from various activities backed by indicators in the RF were calculated due
to lacking end-of-project data, for example, irrigable cropland rehabilitated, or the productivity of areas
harvested with the distributed seeds, or the productivity of livestock fed with the distributed fodder. Table
4.1 provides the project activities backed by indicators as well as the benefit typology, the benefit method
considered and used, as well as the results. Several other activities not backed by indicators could also
generate benefits and are listed below. However, most of these benefits are qualitative and could not be
exploited to derive some sort of efficiency. Still, the benefit calculation by indicator considered is just to
give an order of magnitude of the project gains. The total mean benefit calculated amount to US$132.5
million (Table 4.1)
Table 4.1. Project Activities, and Benefit Typology, Considered, Method and Results
Benefit in the
Benefit Benefit First Year of
Activities Backed by Indicators Benefit Method
Typology Considered Cumulative
(US$ million)
Component 1
PDO1. Direct project beneficiaries Tangible
PDO2. Targeted flood protection and Tangible
sustainable land and water management
interventions achieved
1. 492 sources of drinking water rehabilitated Tangible Yes Averted water 2.8
or developed burden of disease
2. 1,641.27 ha of targeted irrigable land Tangible Partial Productivity change 0.13
rehabilitated
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Benefit in the
Benefit Benefit First Year of
Activities Backed by Indicators Benefit Method
Typology Considered Cumulative
(US$ million)
3. 17,020 ha watershed protected, and land Tangible Yes Dose response 47.30
restored
3.1. 6,000 sand dunes fixed Tangible
3.2. 11,020 ha land degraded restored Tangible Yes Productivity change 0.58
3.3. 80.59 km of stonewalls built Tangible
3.4. 47.57 km of dikes protected Tangible
4. 23.5 km of drainage infrastructure Tangible
rehabilitated
4.1. 8.82 km of drainage built Tangible
4.2. 9.3 km drainage pavement built Tangible
4.3. 6.4 km koris built Tangible
Component 2
PDO3. Performance of the early warning and Intangible Yes Meta-analysis 17.01
response system for natural rapid onset
hazards achieved
1. 26 urban master plans and local Intangible
development plans achieved
2. 23.37% female participated in decision Intangible
committees for development and/or updated
urban master plans and municipal development
plans
3. 5% municipal budget was allocated to solid Tangible
waste collection and processing/transformation
4. Support preparedness and emergency Intangible
response achieved
4.1. Database of risk in Niger is fully functional Intangible
4.2. Support to civil protection to strengthening Intangible
response capacity achieved
4.3. Support to urban development achieved Intangible
4.4. Support to 10 national DRM agencies Intangible
achieved
5. Support urban development achieved Intangible
2
5.1. 320 km of area with detailed maps in Intangible
digital and paper formats achieved
5.2. 76 People trained on digital cartography Intangible
5.3. 5 local innovation projects supported Intangible
Component 3
1. Quality and timely procurement and FM Intangible
reporting achieved
1.1. Quality and timely submission of Intangible
procurement reporting achieved
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Benefit in the
Benefit Benefit First Year of
Activities Backed by Indicators Benefit Method
Typology Considered Cumulative
(US$ million)
1.2. Quality and timely submission of FM Intangible
reporting achieved
2. 89.92% of planned project activities Tangible
implemented
3. 90% grievances registered related to delivery Intangible
of project benefits and addressed
Component 4
1. 8 weeks taken by the Client for the Intangible
preparation/submission of the activation
package to trigger the IRM
Other benefits not monitored in the RF
Urban road pavement Tangible Yes Hedonic pricing 12.10
Temporary jobs created Tangible Yes Marginal 0.11
Propensity to
Consume (MPC)
Fishermen activities Tangible Yes Meta-analysis 0.02
Carbon emission averted (PV) Tangible Yes Replacement Cost 0.76
III. Benefit Valuation Methods
Component 1
Improved Potable Water
7. The largest health burden is diarrheal disease and premature mortality. A reduction in diarrheal
disease and mortality is usually expected on average for population groups from improvement in
reliability and quality water and/or improved sanitation. The percentage reductions are based on Bassi et
al. (2014), where improved water through 482 water fountains is serving on average 250 people per water
fountain13 or 120,500 people per day could reduce the mortality and morbidity of waterborne diseases by
50 percent. However, time savings are not considered as data was not collected on time saved per person
hauling water.
8.
The steps in a quantitative assessment of health benefits (drinking water and sewage/hygiene)
are to reduce premature death and morbidity associated with some waterborne diseases. Expected
reduction in annual incidence of diarrheal disease and diarrheal mortality is presented in Table 4.2. A
midpoint 50 percent reduction is considered for improved water quality for the population that will have
access to the improved water quality as reported in Bassi et al. (2014).
13Viola website: https://www.veolia.com/fr/groupe/medias/actualites/acces-eau-potable-niger#:~:text=Chaque%20borne-
fontaine%20alimente%20en%20moyenne%20250%20personnes%2C%20et,une%20borne-
fontaine%20qui%20alimente%20environ%202%20000%20personnes.
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Table 4.2. Expected Diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality Reduction from Water and Sanitation Improvement
Expected Average
Reduction in Diarrheal
Current Water Disease and Mortality
Supply and Population Substantial
Group Water and Sanitation Improvement Already
Sanitation Distribution Scope for
Good
Coverage Hygiene
Hygiene
Improvement
(%)
(%)
1 Improved Improvement in reliability and quality of 15 45
water supply water (so as to ensure plentiful and safe
and sewage water supply) for those of this population
connection currently having water reliability and
quality problems
2 Improved (a) Improvement in reliability and quality 35 65
water supply of water (so as to ensure plentiful and
but no sewage safe water supply) for those of this
connection population currently having water
reliability and quality problems.
(b) Sewage connection (and flush toilet for
those with dry toilet or no toilet) for all
of this population.
3 Not improved Reliable and safe water supply to premises 25 55
water supply for all of this population
but sewage
connection
4 Not improved Reliable and safe water supply and sewage 45 75
water supply connection (and flush toilet for those with
and no sewage dry toilet or no toilet) for all of this
connection population
Total 100%
Source: Bassi et al. 2014.
9. The quantification of deaths and diseases is based on the Institute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation (IHME)14 data, where waterborne disease risk factors are available for Niger in 2019 and they
are available for 100,000 population in terms of death and morbidity using the burden of disease’s
Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) metric and IHME (2019):
The value of statistical life (VSL), which stands for the risk for reducing mortality, is used for
premature death based on Lindhjem and Navrud (2010) as well as OECD (2015).
A GDP per capita for DALY lost is used for morbidity (Murray and Lopez 1996).
14 IHME website:
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10. For premature death, a benefit transfer was applied to derive the VSL in Niger. The transfer of the
unit to adjust for differences in income value is as follows:
WPp = WPs × (Yp/Ys)ß,
where
WPp = willingness to pay in policy country;
WPs = willingness to pay in study country;
Yp = income in the country policy denominated in purchasing power parity dollar (PPP$);
Ys = income in the country of study denominated in purchasing power parity dollar (PPP$); and
ß = income elasticity for different environmental goods and services, which are considered normal
goods, typically greater than 0 (perfectly inelastic which would have meant that ß is set at 1.2).
11. In this particular case, the income elasticity is assumed to be conservatively more inelastic, which
means that the percentage responsiveness of quantity demanded is significantly and slightly lower to the
percentage change in income1. The VSL or the reduction of risk of premature death in Niger is US$32,462
in 2021 for each premature death and the GDP per capita stands at US$595.
12. The benefits associated with improved access to quality water reached US$2.8 million with a
lower bound of US$1.8 million and an upper bound of US$4.1 million (Table 4.3). However, this does not
account for the time saved hauling water from distant water sources.
Table 4.3. Monetization Associated with Improved Water Quality
Water- Water-
Targeted Based Based Death YLD Middle Lower Upper
Death YLD
Population Death/Popu YLD/Populat VSL GDP Bound Bound Bound
Input
lation ion
US$ US$ US$ US$ US$
# #/100,000 #/100,000 # #
million million million million million
Provinces 120,500 140.97 280.96 170 339 5.5 0.1 5.7 3.6 8.2
Risk 50% 50%
reduction
Averted 85 169 2.8 0.1 2.8 1.8 4.1
death and
morbidity
Source: Murray and Lopez (1996); Bassi et al. (2014); IHME website: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/;
and World Bank (2022).
Note: YLD stands for Year Lived with Disability.
13. Hydrometeorological event producing damages to public and private assets. For damages and
forgone opportunities in terms of economic value added and damages to natural, public, and private
assets, the Dose-Response Methodology builds on IMDC et al. (2017). Flood-effect functions used dose-
response methods to link the intensity and length of an event with its effects per category of 31 categories
of land use value added and buildup assets whereas land rehabilitation is assigned the lowest density with
the lowest full value per ha restored. Direct tangible damage to assets (for example, buildings and
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infrastructure) reflects restoration costs and is mainly dependent on flood depth. In addition, indirect
tangible damages include losses of stocks and losses due to interruption of production of goods or services
(for example, transport). Both direct and indirect tangible damages can be expressed in monetary terms
and depend on the values at risk and their vulnerability. Damage functions specify the percentage loss of
the total value of an asset at risk, in function of flood characteristics (the flood depth, the duration, and
the water speed). These characteristics are part of the hazard assessment. Damage functions for direct
damages are more certain compared to those for indirect losses, as the latter also depend on the duration
of a flood event which was set at once per year. The generic method used builds on the results of the
more detailed models and uses average damage functions that are applied to values at risk, expressed as
US$/ha, sometimes different for the different land use categories (residential, industry, services,
agriculture, and so on). Tangible assets are identified by using the GDP per ha, which is an indicator for
the assets at risk (buildings) and the impact on economic activities. GDP per ha can be estimated based
on data for local GDP per capita and population density. In this particular case, only tangible assets and
value added (categories of rural and urban land use as well as transportation are reported in Table 4.3)
will be considered in rural and urban areas. The first method is based on a dose-response function that
relies on damage and risk per grid cell (1 ha). For a single event (for example, one type of flood), the
damage per grid cell is calculated as follows:
Damage = (max value at risk) × (damage function),
where
Max value at risk includes the value of the assets (buildings, infrastructure, and so on) (US$/ha),
production values (US$/ha per year), and ecosystem services (US$/ha per year).
Damage functions cover flooding.
14. Damage assessment methods per damage assessment cover the different damage categories
(tangible, non-tangible, direct, and indirect) and the indicators to be used to assess the damage. Damage
functions and indicators for values at risk are estimated and damages are valued in monetary terms (US$
per event). The first indicator is the area (ha) affected, differentiating between different land use
categories and the number of people affected.
15. Exposure assessments map the people, assets, production, and ecosystem service values at risk.
The final indicator for the exposure assessment is the number of people (victims at risk of dying or being
injured in a flood event is calculated above by using the risk premium to reduce premature deaths and
injuries), the surface (ha) per type of land use, and the values at risk, with 31 land use categories and
classes reflecting differences in the values at risk and vulnerabilities. Per grid cell of 1 ha, a single land use
is defined based on a combination of information on population density (based on worldpop land use
maps) and land use characteristics (open street maps, land use maps, and observations). Of interest for
this analysis is the urban fabric which reflects a combination of residential land use and economic activities
(services, small factories, and so on), public functions (education and health care), transport-related
infrastructure (roads, bus stations, and so on), and agriculture. As land use maps were not combined with
the hazard maps, the density will be used to determine the dose-response function to be used. The values
at risk depend on the population density and the economic productivity per capita in the targeted areas
based on their densities. Although different subclasses were calculated, only the one associated with the
target area densities is specified in Table 4.4.
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16. The damage functions for floods (tangible damages) are based on the review of worldwide
literature on flood damage functions in (Huizinga et al. 2017). It has to be noted that the information for
Africa is very limited and that the selected damage functions build on information for other continents.
The dose retained for the dose-response function is a conservative midpoint for a short and long duration
for an average water depth of 0.5 m for each event.
Table 4.4. Damage Functions for Floods Short to Long Midpoint Duration (Few Hours to Several Days) and Value
Derived for Land Restoration, Adjusted for 2021 Prices
GDP/ha Water Depth (m)
Indicator.
US$/ha 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 6
R1 for land 53
restoration
R9 for watershed 17,884 0% 23% 40% 56% 67% 86% 95% 98% 100%
Source: Adapted from IMDC-Tractebel-UNESCO/IHE-Vito (2017).
17. By applying the midpoint damage function for short to long duration of 0.5 m flooding (23
percent) and the likelihood of yearly event occurrence every two years associated with flood-proofing,
the targeted areas are provided with an amount for R9 of US$3,917.5 per ha for proofing and R1 with
US$53 per ha for rehabilitation. With 17,020 ha and 11,010 ha, the first-year improvements provide an
amount equivalent to US$47.3 million and US$0.58 million per year, respectively.
Cropland
18. The project improved 155 ha of cropland to increase agricultural production by providing all the
needed ancillary equipment (wells, irrigation, storage, and so on). The data collected by the Project
Implementation Unit (PIU) provided additional information on the irrigated cropland in Dosso and
Tillabéri, but not on AHA (368 ha) where both the new areas were cultivated, and the productivity
increased. Rice as a crop is considered and is harvested twice a year while the profit margins are assumed
to remain constant and are conservatively set at 20 percent. The amounts are derived from the Ministère
de l’Agriculture et de l’Elevage (2020). Table 4.5 provides the net improved production over the last two
years of the project of US$262,102 over two years, and the project could definitely reap additional
benefits in the future.
Table 4.5. Cropland Value Added of Harvest
Production Productivity Profit
Input Unit 2021 2022
and Area Improvement Margin
Rice XOF/ha 213,563 20%
Dosso incremental farmland ha 88 +8%
Tillabéri incremental farmland ha 67 +32%
Dosso rice value added XOF 40.5 40.5
million/ha
Tillabéri rice value added 37.8 37.8
Exchange rate end of year XOF/US$ 579.0 617.1
Dosso incremental farmland US$ million 69,864 65,547
Tillabéri incremental farmland US$ million 65,365 61,326
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Production Productivity Profit
Input Unit 2021 2022
and Area Improvement Margin
Cumulative US$ million 135,229 262,102
Source: Ministère de l’Agriculture et de l’Elevage website: www.agricultureelevage.gouv.ne; and World
Development Indicators (2022).
Component 2
Early Warning System
19. Benefits from Component 2 related to EWSs will help reduce premature death, diseases. and
injuries as well as economic losses. Economic literature suggests that benefits vary from 1:4 to 1:36 per
dollar invested according to Hallegate (2012). The latter estimates incorporate three types of benefits: (a)
avoided asset losses due to natural disasters, (b) saved lives per year, and (c) additional economic benefits.
The third category is the most important one (representing up to three-fourths of potential benefits), is
less robust from an empirical point of view, and does not necessarily apply to poor countries. Thus, a very
conservative approach is assumed considering only the benefits derived from (a) and (b). Under this
scenario, the benefits per dollar invested decreased from 1:1 to 1:6, with an average of 1:3.5 as the
development of national observatories and warning systems is at an early stage. The economic costs of
the investments stand at US$4.8 million with benefits to start accruing in 2022 and are annualized over
the project lifetime.
Niger Population Perception on Inclusiveness, Accountability, and Governance
20. In the absence of a perception survey at the end of the project due to the security situation, the
Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the Ibrahim Index of African Governance were used to
measure the evolution of trust in government. Niger’s WGI15 score for ‘voice and accountability’ was in
free fall from 34.0 to 25.1 between 2014 and 2019 but the trend turned positive in 2020 with a score
reaching 32.9, although lower than 2014. Similarly, the country’s Ibrahim Index of African Governance
score for ‘rights and inclusion’ is also on a downward slope with renewed prospects after the 2015 election
where the score reached 60.4 to 53.5 in 2019. Each of these scores has exhibited volatility over this period
and since, especially during periods of political, security, and pandemic shocks. However, these indicators
reflect the perception of the entire population of Niger and not necessarily the areas targeted by the
project per se (Table 4.6).
Table 4.6. Niger Score on Inclusiveness, Accountability, and Governance
Index 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Voice and Accountability 34.0 32.5 29.1 28.6 25.1 25.1 29.5 32.9
Public Perception of Overall Governance 60.4 64.7 56.1 47.6 50.5 53.5 n.a. n.a.
Source: WGI website: ; and Ibrahim Index of
African Governance website: Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) Data Portal | Mo Ibrahim Foundation.
15 WGI website: Worldwide Governance Indicators | DataBank (worldbank.org).
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Other Benefits Not Captured in the RF
Hedonic Appreciation of Urban Land due to Urban Road Improvement
21. A hedonic method is suggested to derive the incremental cost of land associated with urban road
improvement. The improvement reflects the economic opportunities that are derived from factors
associated with time, services, access, dust, dirt, vector-borne diseases, and so on that will be perceived
by economic agents after enjoying paved and flood-proofed roads. A benefit transfer based on a previous
hedonic method used in a Senegal Project (World Bank, 2012 -- PROGEP - P122841) to derive the
appreciation of urban land prices is used although with a very conservative increase of 10 percent for the
land from each side (20 meters × 20 meters) over the 9.3 km stretch rehabilitated by the project. Only
land prices are considered as apartment and commercial prices are a function not only of the location and
the quality of the infrastructure in the surrounding area but also of their construction attributes (view,
material used, number of windows, balconies, bathroom, and so on) that could therefore not be
controlled for in this analysis. The appreciation is a one-off value that is used in the economic analysis at
the last year of the project. Incidentally, a speculative spree usually follows any urban road and flood-
proofing improvement, and this appreciation was evidenced in all African cities and towns where urban
improvements and notably paved and flood-proofed roads were planned. The marginal appreciation
amounts to US$12.1 million, and it is a one-off increase (Table 4.7).
Table 4.7. Land Appreciation due to Urban Road Improvement and Flood Proofing
Unit Urban Surrounding Average Total Land Price Exchange Rate Marginal
Road Land Land Next to Appreciation of
Length Paved Roads Land Price
m 20 × 20 m XOF/m2 XOF US$/XOF US$ million
Niamey 4,470.25 178,810 2,500 3,594,081,000 617.1 5.8
Tahoua 2,440.00 97,600 1,500 1,961,760,000 617.1 3.2
Konni 2,389.00 95,560 1,000 1,920,756,000 617.1 3.1
Total 9,299.25 371,970 617.1 12.1
Source: World Bank (2012); and Coin Afrique Immobilier website:
https://ne.coinafrique.com/categorie/immobilier.
Economic Multiplier Effect due to Labor-Income Activities
22. With regard to the person-days of employment created of 411,030 persons per day, a multiplier
effect, which is caused by additional funds from investments leading to the proportional increase in the
overall income of the economy, is used to have the net effect on the GDP. It is assumed that persons
employed belong to low-income households and accumulate very little wealth. The aggregate MPC out of
transitory income ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 and is consistent with most of the large estimates of the
MPC reported in empirical studies in low-income countries.16 Therefore, a midpoint MPC is used to derive
the net effect on GDP that is considered as a benefit to the economy and the person-days of employment
is derived from the GDP per day as value added labor. The number of days is equally annualized from 2015
16 Carroll et al. 2017.
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to 2021 when the project started disbursing while the latest extension was not considered in the
calculation.
23. The calculation of the multiplier formula is as follows:
k = 1 / (1 – MPC),
where
k is the multiplier.
Table 4.8. Income Effect on Local Economies
Input 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total
Expenditure 77,887 80,471 83,295 91,814 89,140 91,323 95,707
MPC 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Multiplier (k) 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43
Change in Real GDP, US$ 111,267 114,959 118,993 131,163 127,342 130,461 136,725 644,684
GDP per capita, US$ 484.2 500.2 517.8 570.7 554.1 567.7 594.9
GDP per capita per day, US$ 1.33 1.37 1.42 1.56 1.52 1.56 1.63
Employment, person-days 58,719 58,719 58,719 58,719 58,719 58,719 58,719 411,030
Source: Carroll et al. (2017); World Development Indicators (2022).
Note: GDP is used in lieu of disposable income as it is not readily available.
24. The total net effect of the multiplier on local GDP amounted to US$644,684 from 2015 to 2021
(Table 4.8).
Fishermen Activities
25. There is no data regarding the level of expected profits from the 1,000 fishermen who were
provided with boats in targeted areas. The results of a study in West Africa are used to estimate the cash
flow generated.17 The study shows an average increase in beneficiaries’ incomes between 20 percent and
40 percent. A midpoint estimate of a 30 percent income increase is used while it is estimated that 623
households (5.92 capita per household)18 (annualized over the period) will benefit from income-
generating activities. The gross national income between 2015 and 2022 is considered for income per
capita over six years as the benefits accrue with a one-year lag and is considered over the lifetime of the
project only. A total of US$172,360 is generated (Table 4.9).
Table 4.9. Additional Income Generated from Fishermen Activities
Input Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gross national US$ 560 530 520 570 590 550 590
income per
capita
17 Crépon et al. 2015; Poncin 2006; and USAID 2014.
18 Institut National de la Statistique website: www.istat-mali.org.
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Input Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Income ±% 168.0 159.0 156.0 171.0 177.0 184.1
increase with a
lag: 30%
Fishermen US$, 24,000 22,714 2,286 4,429 5,286 26,297 27,349
benefits millions
Cumulative US$, 24,000 46,714 69,000 93,429 118,714 145,011 172,360
benefits millions
Source: Institut National de la Statistique website: www.stat-niger.org; and World Development Indicators (2022).
Carbon Emission Averted
26. Solar systems were installed in Niamey (156 panels with 300 W capacity each) and Birni N'Gaoré
(50 panels with 150 W capacity each) during implementation that reduced ambient air-related health
diseases, opportunity loss, and so on as well as global pollution. Although the former is acknowledged,
only the latter could be valued where CO2-eq reductions were assumed and considered the following
hypothesis: (a) the PV total capacity is 0.05 MW and 0.01 MW, respectively; (b) the irradiance per day is
4.6 hours and 4.8 hours, respectively; (c) the number of sunny days per year is 324 days and 337 days,
respectively; (d) the CO2-eq emissions are the midpoint of the electricity generated by a diesel generator
(0.26676 ton of CO2-eq/MWh) or an oil-fired plant (0.777 ton of CO2-eq/MWh); (e) the social cost of
carbon is derived from the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices (2017); (f) PV panels have a productive
lifespan of 25–30 years; and (g) the estimated CO2-eq emission averted is the product of these variables
per year. The averted carbon emissions are equivalent to about US$57,396 over 18 years (Table 4.10) with
the benefits accruing in 2021. Also, the project installed PV under PIMELAN - P164509 but those are not
included in the calculations.
Table 4.10. Estimated CO2-eq Averted due to the Installation of Solar Systems
Area Irradiance Capacity per PV Total Sunny Total Midpoint 2021 2021 CO2-eq
PV Capacity Days per Electricity CO2-eq Emission
Year Production Social Averted
Cost
Unit hours per W # MW # MWh ton CO2- US$ per US$
day eq/MWh ton
Niamey 4.6 300 156 0.05 324 70 0.52188 61.35 2,233.0
Birni
4.8 150 50 0.01 337 12 0.52188 61.35 388.4
N'Gaoré
Total 82 2,521.7
Source: Stern and Stiglitz (2017); RTE France website: Eco2mix – CO2 Emissions per kWh of Electricity Generated in
France | RTE (rte-france.com); Government Evaluation of PACT (2021); Our World in Data website: Carbon Dioxide
Emissions Factor, kg CO₂ per MWh (ourworldindata.org); www.climatestotravel.com/climate/niger; and Global
Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country | ESMAP.
Results of the Benefit-Cost Analysis
27. The ex post economic analysis was carried out and was based only on the tangible quantifiable
benefits accruing under the combined four components of the project. The project will also reap tangible
and intangible benefits that are not quantified. The economic analysis was performed by using a 6 percent
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social discount rate as suggested by the World Bank over 25 years based on the opportunity cost of capital
and country risk over the project period as it is an emergency project. Moreover, 4 percent and 8 percent
discount rates are also shown. Table 4.11 summarizes the results of the economic analysis. The AF is viable
under all three scenarios. The base case scenario has a positive NPV of US$158 million as well as a robust
IRR of 16 percent and positive present value benefit-cost ratio of 2.6.
Table 4.11. Benefit-Cost Analysis
Project
Key Economic Indicators
25 Years Discounted At
Scenario 4% 6% 8%
Benefit-cost analysis
NPV (US$ million) 240.6 158.0 101.2
IRR (%) 16% 16% 16%
Present value benefit-cost ratio 3.3 2.6 2.1
Viability Yes Yes Yes
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Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (P145268)
World Bank. 2022. World Development Indicators. Washington, D.C: World Bank.
World Bank project documents: Project Appraisal Report, Loan Agreement, Restructuring, Additional
Financing, ISR, Aide Memoires, Mid-term Review, Procurement Plants, Financial Audits, ESIA
documents, and so on.
World Bank ICR used for Project Management and Project Supervision benchmarking: Benin Cities
Support Project / PAURAD (P122950); Burkina Faso Local Government Support, COVID-19 and
Resilience Response Project (P120517); Cote d’Ivoire Transport Sector Modernization and
Corridor Trade Facilitation Project (P156900); Gabon Central African Backbone - APL4
(P122776); Mauritania Local Government Development Program (P127543); and Senegal Urban
Water and Sanitation Project (P150351).
World Bank website: .
Worldpop Density website: .
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ANNEX 5. MAPS OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE ACHIEVED
Synthesis Map of All Infrastructures at the National and Regional Levels
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ANNEX 6. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS
Beyond the editorial comments, the GoN expressed its overall agreement with the findings and the ratings
provided by the ICR and provided some specific recommendations to clarify certain aspects. Specific
suggestions were provided regarding the following aspects:
(a) Indicators: justification of overachievement and underachievement of certain objectives,
rationale of changes in targets, and explanations on changes in measurement methodology.
(b) Challenges to implementation that affected safeguards monitoring, FM, procurement, and M&E,
including the fragile context/lack of security and the COVID-19 pandemic, and issues with certain
institutional partners and contractors.
(c) Lessons learned regarding safeguards monitoring, including preparation and implementation of
RAPs, and operationalization of the GRM.
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ANNEX 7. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS
World Bank Documents
Concept Stage and Appraisal Stage Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet (Reports No. ISDSC3594 and No.
ISDSA6116)
Project Appraisal Document (Report No. PAD817)
Advance Agreement for Preparation of the Proposed Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development
Project (Letter No. Q862)
Environmental Assessment: Resettlement Plan and Environmental and Social Management Framework
(Reports No. RP1497 and No. E4314)
IDA Financing Agreement (Credit No. 5340-NE)
Aide Memoires and Midterm Review Report
ISRs (1–16)
Project Paper Restructuring (Report No. RES22186)
Project Paper Additional Credit (Report No. PAD3224)
Credit Numbers 5340-NE and 6413-NE Amendment to the Financing Agreements Letter (June 30, 2021)
World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework FY13–FY16 (Report No. 76232 NE)
World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework FY18–FY22 (Report No. 123736 NE)
Client Documents
Project Operations Manual
Rapport d’Achèvement du PGRC-DU, Version définitive, Gouvernement du Niger, Février 2023
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