Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD5583 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 15.9 MILLION (US$21.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT, OF WHICH US$5.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT FROM THE WINDOW FOR HOST COMMUNITIES AND REFUGEES) AND A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 3.8 MILLION (US$5.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) FROM THE WINDOW FOR HOST COMMUNITIES AND REFUGEES AND A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$10 MILLION FROM THE SAHEL ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM MULTI-DONOR TRUST FUND TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF MAURITANIA FOR THE SOCIAL SAFETY NET SYSTEM PROJECT II April 3, 2024 Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective February 29, 2024) Currency Unit = Mauritania Ouguiya (MRU) US$1 = MRU 39.74 US$1 = SDR 0.75326 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Keiko Miwa Regional Director: Trina Haque Practice Manager: Christian Bodewig Task Team Leaders: Margaux Laurence Vinez, Dieynaba Diallo ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF2 Second Additional Financing AFD French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement) ANRPTS National Agency for the Registry of Populations and Secured Documents (Agence Nationale du Registre des Populations et des Titres Sécurisés) ASP Adaptive Social Protection CFV Common Financing Vehicle CPF Country Partnership Framework CSA Food Security Commission (Commissariat à la Sécurité Alimentaire) DCAN National Mechanism for Prevention and Response to Food and Nutritional Crises (Dispositif National de Prévention et de Réponse aux Crises Alimentaires et Nutritionnelles) EPCV Living Standards Measurement Household Survey (Enquête sur la Pauvreté et les Conditions de Vie) EWS Early Warning System FNRCAN National Fund for Response to Food and Nutritional Security Crises (Fond National de Réponse aux Crises Alimentaires et Nutritionelles) GDP Gross Domestic Product GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism IDA International Development Association IPF Investment Project Financing M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MRU Mauritanian Ouguiya MDTF Multi Donor Trust Fund NDC Nationally Determined Contribution PIU Project Implementation Unit PNR National Response Plan (Plan National de Réponse) PASyFiS II Mauritania Social Safety Net Systems Project (Projet d’Appui aux Systèmes de Filet de Sécurité Sociale en Mauritanie) PDO Project Development Objective PP Procurement Plan PPSD Project Procurement Strategy Document REDA Recipient Executed Disbursing Account SASPP Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program SEA/SH Sexual Exploitation and Abuse/Sexual Harassment SR Social Registry SSA Sub-Saharan Africa UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees WFP World Food Programme WHR Window for Host Communities and Refugees TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................ 1 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING AND RESTRUCTURING OF THE PARENT PROJECT ................................................................................................................................ 8 III. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 17 IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 18 V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS .............................................................................. 25 VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES .................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) ................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 31 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) BASIC INFORMATION – PARENT (Social Safety Net System Project II - P171125) Country Product Line Team Leader(s) Mauritania IBRD/IDA Margaux Laurence Vinez Project ID Financing Instrument Resp CC Req CC Practice Area (Lead) P171125 Investment Project HAWS2 (9346) AWCF1 (6550) Social Protection & Jobs Financing Implementing Agency: Taazour General Delegation ADD_FIN_TBL1 Is this a regionally tagged project? No Bank/IFC Collaboration No Expected Approval Date Closing Date Guarantee Environmental and Social Risk Classification Expiration Date 10-Mar-2020 30-Sep-2025 Substantial Financing & Implementation Modalities Parent [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [✓] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) Development Objective(s) The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) The Project Development Objective is to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system and its coverage of poor and vulnerable households with targeted social transfers, including in refugee and host communities. Ratings (from Parent ISR) RATING_DRAFT_ NO Implementation Latest ISR 22-Mar-2021 13-Oct-2021 09-May-2022 05-Dec-2022 26-Jun-2023 15-Dec-2023 Progress towards achievement of S S S S S S PDO Overall Implementation MS MS MS MS S S Progress (IP) Overall ESS Performance MS MS MU MU S MS Overall Risk M M M M M M Financial Management MS MS MU MS MS MS Project Management MS MS MS MS MS MS Procurement U MU MU MU MS S Monitoring and Evaluation S S MS MS MS MS BASIC INFORMATION – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing - P181523) ADDFIN_TABLE Urgent Need or Capacity Project ID Project Name Additional Financing Type Constraints P181523 Social Safety Net System Cost Overrun/Financing No Project II second Gap, Restructuring, Scale Up Additional Financing The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Financing instrument Product line Approval Date Investment Project IBRD/IDA 25-Apr-2024 Financing Projected Date of Full Bank/IFC Collaboration Disbursement 30-Sep-2026 No Is this a regionally tagged project? No Financing & Implementation Modalities Child [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [✓] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) Disbursement Summary (from Parent ISR) Net Source of Funds Total Disbursed Remaining Balance Disbursed Commitments IBRD % IDA 45.00 42.79 1.32 97 % Grants 20.00 20.00 0.00 100 % PROJECT FINANCING DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing - P181523) PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFi n1 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) SUMMARY (Total Financing) Proposed Additional Total Proposed Current Financing Financing Financing Total Project Cost 85.00 36.00 121.00 Total Financing 85.00 36.00 121.00 of which IBRD/IDA 45.00 26.00 71.00 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 0.00 DETAILS - Additional Financing NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 26.00 IDA Credit 21.00 IDA Grant 5.00 Non-World Bank Group Financing Trust Funds 10.00 SAHEL ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM 10.00 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Guarantee Credit Amount Grant Amount SML Amount Total Amount Amount Mauritania 21.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 26.00 National Performance-Based 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00 Allocations (PBA) Window for Host Communities and 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 Refugees (WHR) Total 21.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 26.00 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Does the project require any other Policy waiver(s)? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No ESStandards Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal E & S Standards Relevance Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant Labor and Working Conditions Relevant Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Not Currently Relevant Community Health and Safety Relevant Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Not Currently Relevant Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Not Currently Relevant Resources Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional Not Currently Relevant Local Communities Cultural Heritage Not Currently Relevant Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant ESStandardsNote NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS). INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Social Protection & Jobs The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks PROJECT TEAM Bank Staff Name Role Specialization Unit Team Leader (ADM Margaux Laurence Vinez Economist HAWS2 Responsible) Dieynaba Diallo Team Leader Social Protection HAWS2 Procurement Specialist (ADM Brahim Hamed Procurement EAWP1 Responsible) Sarra Saleck Procurement Specialist Procurement AWMMR Ahohouindo Mongnihoude Financial Management Financial management EAWG1 Jean L Gbaguidi Specialist (ADM Responsible) Financial Management Fatou Fall Samba Financial management EAWG1 Specialist Social Specialist (ADM Cheikh Hamallah Diagana Social Development SAWS4 Responsible) Environmental Specialist (ADM Mamadou Samba Sow Environment SAWE1 Responsible) Adama Diop Team Member Finance WFACS Delphine Aurore Nathalie Team Member Gender HAWS2 Lavaissiere Franck Jean Rodolphe Team Member Social Protection HAWS2 Muller Ghislaine Kouedi Nombi Team Member Audit Analyst GIAVP Gizework Zewdie Mekuria Procurement Team procurement AECE3 Helene Bertaud Counsel Legal LEGAM Ishanlosen Odiaua Social Specialist Social Development SAWS4 Isselmou Boye Team Member Social Protection HAWS2 Joelle Nkombela Mukungu Environmental Specialist Environment MNADE Julia Vaillant Team Member Economist AFEGI The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Lydie Anne Billey Team Member Quality Analyst HAWS2 Matthieu Boris Lefebvre Team Member Social Protection HAWS2 Mira Saidi Team Member Social Protection HAWS2 Mohammad Ilyas Butt Procurement Team Procurement EAERU Oscar Anil Ishizawa Team Member Disaster Risk Management GFDRR Escudero Samanta Victoria Sarria Team Member Social Protection HAWS2 Capape Sariette Jene M. C. Jippe Team Member Operations, Quality HAWS2 Stephanie Anne Kuttner Team Member Gender SAES3 Yacine Ndiaye Team Member Program Assistant AWMMR Extended Team Name Title Organization Location The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. INTRODUCTION 1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors to provide a second additional financing (AF2) for the Mauritania Social Safety Net Systems Project II (Projet d’Appui aux Systèmes de Filet de Sécurité Sociale en Mauritanie II - PASyFiS II, P171125) in the amount of US$26 million equivalent. The proposed AF2 will be financed through a combination of an International Development Association (IDA) credit (National Performance-Based Allocations, US$16 million equivalent), an IDA Window for Host Communities and Refugees (WHR) credit and grant (US$5 million equivalent credit and US$5 million equivalent grant). The project will also receive a co-financing grant from the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP) Multi donor Trust Fund (MDTF) (US$10 million). The parent project scaled up shock responsive cash transfers due to unforeseen emergencies, which resulted in an unforeseen financing gap. In addition, the parent project has made considerable progress on key activities, the sustainability of which could be jeopardized without further support. The proposed AF2 aims to address this by: (i) bridging the financing gap to ensure the continuity of regular cash-transfers, social promotion, and productive inclusion activities; (ii) expanding coverage to include additional refugee beneficiaries both within and outside the Mbera camp in the Tekavoul program, and boosting economic inclusion activities in refugee hosting areas; (iii) increasing the value of transfers for all refugees to align it with that of host communities; and (iv) adjusting and scaling up the social registry (SR) and shock response activities in view of progress made so far. The proposed AF2 will also restructure the parent project to revise component costs, adjust the results framework, redefine the initially proposed common financing vehicle (CFV), and extend the project closing date from September 2025 to June 2026 to ensure adequate time for completion of the activities. B. COUNTRY CONTEXT 2. Mauritania is a vast arid lower middle-income country with natural resource based economic growth. Mauritania is one of the least densely populated countries in the world with five inhabitants per square kilometer. The rural population constitutes 41 percent of the total population, with 60 percent of them relying on agriculture and livestock farming for their livelihoods. These sectors collectively employ approximately 29 percent of the total active workforce.1 In addition, in recent years, Mauritania has continued to successfully tap mineral resources as well as fishing reserves which allowed for significant government investments in infrastructure, increased access to services, and enabled the country to register one of the best growth performances in the region. As a result, per capita GDP tripled over the past two decades to stand at USD$ 2,170 in current terms in 2023. i. Despite a slowdown due to multiple recent crises including COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, growth increased from 0.7 percent in 2021 to 6.4 percent in 2022, but slowed in 2023 to 3.4 percent.2 3. The COVID-19 pandemic and inflationary pressures reversed years of poverty reduction in Mauritania. In 2020 alone, it is estimated that poverty increased by 1.7 percentage points, reaching 33.6 percent of the population, and pushing an additional 48,000 people into extreme poverty. This surge was particularly pronounced in rural areas, where poverty rates are, on average, three times higher than in 1 World Bank. 2022. Rapport sur la Situation Économique en Mauritanie : Le Secteur Privé au Centre de la Transformation Économique et de la Création d’Emplois (French). Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 2 World Bank. 2024. Macro Poverty Outlook, Spring Meetings. Page 1 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) urban areas.3 The high inflation in 2022 also hit rural households particularly hard (9.5 percent), primarily due to the surge in global food prices, but decreased in 2023 driven by lower food and oil prices (reaching 1.6 percent in December 2023, compared to 11 percent in December 2022).4 4. Mauritania’s human capital is not reflective of its level of economic growth. Mauritania ranks 150 out of 159 countries on the Human Capital Index in 2020 with a score of 0.38, below the SSA average of 0.40. In fact, a child born today in Mauritania is projected to be only 38 percent as productive as she would have been with complete education and full health. Gender inequality is pronounced, with women facing significant barriers to social and economic inclusion and fewer rights than men.5 Their limited economic and political opportunities, evidenced by a low female labor force participation rate of 27.4 percent, curtail their decision-making ability and hinder investments in themselves and their children.6 Mauritanian women face challenges in exercising their voice, with 22 percent of women aged 15-49 not involved in significant household decisions. The combined effects of gender disparities and low human capital results in a 19 percent reduction in Mauritania’s national wealth.7 Refugee women and girls face additional hurdles, being more vulnerable to shocks because of loss of assets and facing heightened security threats. Women in fragile and conflict contexts, including refugee women, are at a greater risk of child marriage and gender-based violence.8 5. Mauritania is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather shocks and climate change, further exacerbating an already precarious food security situation. Projections indicate a potential rise in temperatures by 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius over the next fifty years.9 Mauritania is already grappling with the effects of climate change, heightening the risk of increased food insecurity as its limited arable land becomes more susceptible to drought. Over 2000-2021, Mauritania ranked third in SSA on the level of human impact from climate-related events, after Somalia and Eswatini.10 Weather and climate- related shocks disproportionally affect the poorest, who depend on agriculture for 45 percent of their total income, and for whom food products comprise 57 percent of their consumption.11 Climate change is leading to variable rainfall and increasing both drought and flash floods, as experienced in the 2022 lean season. In fact, the 2022 lean season also represented the worst food insecurity crisis since 2012 with an estimated 875,000 individuals having been considered in extreme food insecurity (i.e. 20 percent of the population). During that same year, Mauritania also experienced one of its worst floods in the southern and central regions impacting an estimated 40,000 people.12 3 World Bank. 2022. Mauritania Poverty Assessment: main report. 4 World Bank. 2024. Macro Poverty Outlook, Spring Meetings. 5 In particular women from rural areas and the lowest wealth quintile who are more likely to be illiterate compared to their urban counterparts and to women from the highest wealth quintile. 6 World Bank. 2022. Mauritania Poverty Assessment: main report. 7 World Bank. 2021. Rapport sur la Situation Économique en Mauritanie. Un meilleur avenir: accélérer la relance économique en misant sur le potentiel des femmes. 8 UNHCR (2022, November 25). UNHCR warns of rising tide of hunger, insecurity and underfunding worsening gender-based violence risks; Gonzalez, O. M. 2016. Refugees and host communities facing gender-based violence: developing an area-based approach to gender-based violence around Mbaera Camp, Mauritania. 9 GIZ, KFW Climate Risk Profile: Mauritania; 10 World Bank, 2023. Mauritania Human Capital Review 11 World Bank. 2022. Mauritania Poverty Assessment: main report. 12 https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2022-000286- mrt#:~:text=From%2025%20July%20to%203rd,in%20southern%20and%20central%20Mauritania Page 2 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) 6. Mauritania has maintained relative stability amid escalating regional insecurity, particularly at its border with Mali, while hosting over 116,235 refugees13 and pioneering their inclusion in social protection programs. The relations between refugees and hosts are at point tense, due to preexisting poverty levels, poor access to services, limited natural resources such as water and fodder, and perceived preferential treatment.14 Most refugees live in the arid south-eastern Moughataa of Bassikounou, in the Mbera refugee camp15 and surrounding villages, and remain dependent on humanitarian assistance for their subsistence. In addition, there is a continuous inflow of Malian refugees settling outside of the Mbera camp and settling directly into host communities.16 These refugees are facing challenges in terms of access to services. In fact, school enrolment rate stands at 6 percent for this community, mainly due to severe financing constraints, lack of identifying documents and limited availability of schools.17 Other priorities for these new refugees and their host communities are access to water, food and health.18 It represents a new challenge for both humanitarian and development partners. Their efforts, led by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Food Programme (WFP), have thus far focused on delivering assistance to refugees in the camp and (to a lesser extent) host communities and mitigated the impact of the demographic shock on service delivery and social tensions. In 2022, the government also started integrating refugees from the camp into the SRand the safety net program. However, as humanitarian support declines and more refugees arrive, access to services is poised to become a challenge. 7. The World Bank, in consultation with UNHCR, confirms that the protection framework for refugees continues to be adequate in Mauritania as per the UNHCR updated assessment of November 24, 2023. Mauritania is a signatory to the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol and the 1969 Organization of Africa Union Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa. A draft asylum law proposed in 2016 remains pending and, if approved by Parliament, would provide a more comprehensive framework setting out the rights and obligations of refugees and asylum-seekers. Nevertheless, the Government of Mauritania has maintained an open-door policy for asylum-seekers and refugees, and in general, refugees enjoy freedom of movement and protection within the country. In 2022-2023, there were no known or reported cases of refoulement of registered refugees. There are areas for improvement, notably with respect to refugees being subjected to increased national security and border controls. UNHCR and its legal partners are working together to assess and prevent potential violations of the non-refoulement principle. Critical steps have been taken since 2018 and the first national strategy for refugees and host communities to facilitate refugee inclusion in national services. These steps include provision of access to health services and to the universal health insurance system, inclusion in the Tekavoul program, and facilitation of civil registration. Despite this progress, several key gaps remain including access to education, access to civil registration, access to social protection on par with nationals and housing, land and property rights. The government has outlined a long-term vision in its July 2023 update (Mauritania's commitment 2019 - 2023, Engagement de la Mauritanie 2019-2023), focused on a shift toward enhancing resilience and economic inclusion of refugees and host communities. 13 https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/mrt as of January 2024. 14 World Bank (2023). Risk and Resilience Assessment. 15 92,388 registered Malian refugees live in the camp and 11,809 are awaiting registration as of January 2024. 16 8,419 Malian refugees are registered outside the camp and 41,000 are awaiting registration as of January 2024. 17 UNHCR (2023) Evaluation de l’accès aux services de base des refugies vivant hors du camp mberra. 18 UNHCR (2024). Mauritania Emergency Response: Out of Camp Malians in Hodh el Chargui. Page 3 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) C. SECTORAL CONTEXT 8. Social protection has played a key role in Mauritania’s poverty reduction efforts and is a critical component of the country’s long term development strategy. Mauritania is currently navigating through challenges that may impact its financial capacity in the future. However, the country’s economic growth has picked up and is expected to further increase in coming years, especially with the onset of gas production. Despite the challenges the government remains committed to prioritize social protection measures. In fact, the government is not only increasing the value of cash transfers but also undertaking the update of the National Social Protection Strategy. This update has mobilized several technical and financial partners (including the World Bank, WFP, UNICEF, the German Agency for International Cooperation, the Belgium Development Agency, among others) and reflects the progress made since 2015 in the social protection sector. In particular, the update includes the role of adaptive social protection (ASP) and shock response, the establishment of the medical coverage with the National Health Insurance Coverage (Caisse Nationale d’Assurance Maladie), and the creation of General Delegation of Taazour under the Presidency. The strong commitment of the government towards social protection is also reflected in the continuous increase in the share of resources dedicated to the national safety net program Tekavoul, from 0.02 percent of GDP in 2017 to 0.09 percent in 2020 and up to 0.24 percent in 2022.19 9. Mauritania has created strong foundations for its ASP system, which it intends to keep building on. Since 2015, the government made significant investments in its ASP system, namely the SR, the Tekavoul social transfer program and the shock response system. An assessment of the system using the World Bank Stress Test Methodology revealed that Mauritania’s ASP system is advanced relative to its regional peers although it still has significant progress to make to reach an emerging level of development. The SR supports the identification of the poorest households and improves the targeting and coordination of social programs. At least 25 governmental and non-governmental partners have made use of it to date, especially to respond to climate-induced food insecurity. The government envisions making the registry a more widely used tool for targeting and coordination of social programs by ensuring it is more dynamic and responsive to needs. The Social Transfer Program, Tekavoul,20 which has national coverage (and includes refugees), targets households in extreme poverty. The government is currently preparing a decree to institutionalize Tekavoul and is leading consultations to improve the dynamism of entries and exits into the program and make it more modular to respond to varying needs and vulnerabilities. Finally, the government has established a scalable and responsive shock response system through the Elmaouna shock response program, the pilot Tekavoul shock program, the establishment by decree (in April 2021 and May 2022 respectively) of the National Mechanism for Prevention and Response to Food and Nutritional Crises (Dispositif d’Alerte Précoce et de Réponse aux Crises Alimentaires et Nutrionnelles – DCAN) and the establishment of DCAN’s financing arm, the National Fund for Response to Food and Nutritional Crises (Fond National de Réponse aux Crises Alimentaires et Nutrionnelles – FNRCAN). The government intends to expand its focus to other shocks beyond food insecurity in the lean season. D. RELEVANCE TO HIGHER LEVEL OBJECTIVES 10. The proposed AF is consistent with the Performance and Learning Review (Report No. 170469- MR) for the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Mauritania (Report No. 19World Bank team’s calculations. 20The Tekavoul program’s five-year cycle consists of quarterly cash transfers conditioned on beneficiaries’ participation in social promotion activities designed to promote knowledge of essential family practices and investment in early childhood development. Beneficiaries are offered an economic inclusion package once they are identified to exit the program. Page 4 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) 125012-MR, FY 2018–2023, June 13, 2018),21 which identified the inability of poor households to invest in human capital and their vulnerability to climate shocks as key threats to their productive capacity. The AF2 will continue to focus on increasing access to safety nets, building households resilience to shocks and encouraging investment in human capital, particularly in health and education. It will do so by providing them with: (a) regular cash transfers; (b) shock responsive cash transfers; and (c) economic inclusion measures including start-up grants. 11. Finally, the AF2 supports Mauritania in achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)22 and contributes to efforts of climate change mitigation and adaptation. It aligns with the country’s commitments under its NDC to promote climate-resilient economic and social development and the creation of sustainable green jobs and to focus more clearly on food security. The NDC highlights the risk posed by greater and more frequent droughts, particularly to food security. In addition, it focused on the importance of strengthening the resilience of vulnerable populations, particularly women. The AF2 is focused on filling the financing gap to allow the project to carry out its activities related to regular cash transfers and economic inclusion activities which build resilience to shocks, particularly of women. Finally, it will scale up shock response activities to provide support to households facing acute food insecurity and help develop better monitoring systems for food security. E. PARENT PROJECT STATUS AND RESULTS 12. The parent project Development Objective (PDO) is to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system and its coverage of poor and vulnerable households with targeted social transfers, including in refugee and host communities. The PASyFiS II reinforces the existing social safety net system and ensures the continuity of the PASyFiS I, which closed on October 31, 2020. It is framed around four components. Component 1 aims to improve the efficiency of the government’s social programs by updating the SR and promoting its usage. Component 2 focuses on enhancing the socio-economic inclusion of poor households by strengthening and extending the Social Transfer Program, Tekavoul, as well as supporting an adequate exit strategy for former Tekavoul beneficiaries and facilitating their inclusion in the Civil Registry. Component 3 seeks to strengthen the shock-responsive system by further developing the early warning system (EWS), the Elmaouna program, the pilot Tekavoul-shock and the shock response financing strategy. Component 4 is to support the coordination and management of the project. 13. Since its effectiveness, the project has undergone one AF (Recipient Executed Disbursing Accounts (REDA- TF0B5069)) and five restructurings. The first restructuring aimed to assist the government in its COVID-19 response (September 2020). The first AF was signed in May 2021 to scale-up the shock- responsive safety net programs to support an additional 36,000 vulnerable households during the 2021 lean season through an additional grant of US$13 million from the SASPP. The second restructuring aimed to reflect the first parallel co-financing of the French Development Agency (Agence Francaise de Dévelopment-AFD) to the project in the amount of EUR 5 million (March 2022), the third to scale up the 2022 cash transfer response to food insecurity during the 2022 lean season (June 2022), the fourth to include a second parallel co-financing from the AFD in the amount of EUR 2.5 million (December 2022), and the fifth and last restructuring in September 2023 to reallocate spending between disbursement categories to ensure the continuation of the regular cash transfers and other key program activities. 21 The proposed operation corresponds to the additional financing proposed in the PLR (Report No. 170469-MR) 22 Contribution Determinée Nationale Actualisée 2021-2030. Page 5 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) 14. Progress towards achievement of the PDO and implementation progress are both rated Satisfactory following the last supervision mission in December 2023. The PASyFiS II conducted its midterm review in June 2023 which reconfirmed the project’s relevance and adequacy. The targets for most project indicators have already been achieved or exceeded. The project is also ahead of its disbursement projections: as of March 31, 2024, IDA funds disbursement rate is 97.01 percent, and the two REDAs are fully disbursed. 15. The parent project is framed around four components with the following achievements to date: a. Component 1: “Updating and Enhancing the Social Registry” (US$6.3 million equivalent of which US$3.9 million IDA, US$0.9 million SASPP MDTF and US$1.5 million counterpart funding). As of October 2023: (i) 225,855 of the poorest households have been registered in the SR, well beyond the target of 200,000 households; (ii) a comprehensive update of the SR is underway with 26 out of 52 planned Moughataas (excluding Nouakchott) completed. This second generation of the SR will cover 40 percent of the poorest households in the country. The update will increase the accuracy and reliability of the data with an upgraded methodology; and (iii) the digital monitoring and payment platform developed by the SR has been used by several partners during the 2023 lean season response. b. Component 2: “Enhancing socio-economic inclusion of poor households” (US$44.9 million equivalent of which US$28.2 million IDA and US$16.7 million counterpart funding). The parent project supports 54,681 poor households (including 7,214 refugee households) with regular Tekavoul cash transfers, exceeding its objective of 45,000 households. While social promotion activities were paused during COVID-19, they resumed in 2023. Moreover, the government is providing an additional 43,639 households with cash transfers and increased the value of the transfer from 1,500 Mauritania Ouguiya (MRU) per quarter to 2,900 MRU in 2023 (and plans to increase it further to 3,600 in 2024), fully funded by its own budget. This brings the total number of households receiving regular cash-transfers to 98,235. Despite these achievements, the parent project is still facing challenges with the timeliness of payments, and the implementation of the social promotion and economic inclusion activities (the latter, targeted at beneficiaries exiting the Tekavoul program). While the households exiting the Tekavoul program were identified in September 2023, the government only launched the economic inclusion interventions in December 2023. In addition, the increase in Tekavoul transfer value has not included refugees who are still receiving 1,500 MRU. Finally, the parent project has supported the enrolment of Tekavoul households into the civil registry through the National Agency for the Registry of Populations and Secured Documents (Agence Nationale du Registre des Populations et des Titres Sécurisés- ANRPTS). This inclusion facilitates poor and vulnerable households’ access to services such as the free health insurance (Assurance Maladie Gratuite). c. Component 3: “Strengthening the Shock Response System for households vulnerable to climate-shocks” (US$30.4 million equivalent of which US$ 11.3 million IDA and US$19.1 million SASPP MDTF. In 2021, the project supported the second national COVID-19 intervention by reaching 91,000 vulnerable households with a one-off cash transfer. In addition, Elmaouna significantly scaled up its intervention during the 2022 lean season reaching 71,971 food insecure households (of which 51,284 through the project). As a result, the project has reached a cumulative 168,192 households with shock-responsive cash transfers far exceeding the initial target of the parent project of 24,000 households. In terms of system building, the project: (i) developed a food insecurity predictive model to support the EWS; and (ii) supported the Page 6 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) government to the establish and operationalize the DCAN and the FNRCAN. The DCAN puts the government in the lead in terms of the coordination and strategic planning of the response while the FNRCAN becomes the financing arm of the DCAN allowing for an ex-ante financing planning and a coordinated, and optimized deployment of public resources in response to food security crisis. The FNRCAN was designed as a Special Budget Allocation (Budget d’Affectation Special, BAS) with the objective of financing the National Response Plan (Plan National de Réponse PNR) under the budgetary authority of the Food Security Commission (Commissariat à la Sécurité Alimentaire- CSA). The FNRCAN was officially created on May 11, 2022, through Decree 068- 2022. The legal structure of the FNRCAN is not fully aligned with the original design23 under the parent project due to government decisions during design and preparation but fulfills the same objectives in the key respects. The FNRCAN is an important financing tool for the government, and it was first activated during the 2023 lean season, with the AFD contributing US$12.5 million. d. Component 4: “Project Coordination and Management” (US$3.4 million equivalent of which US$1.6 million IDA and US$1.8 million counterpart funding). This component finances the overall project management and coordination including fiduciary, safeguards and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) functions as well as the cost of consultants. The project has made significant progress in ensuring the timely execution of procurement activities and in fulfilling its commitments related to the environmental and social commitment plan following the recruitment of a Procurement Specialist and a Social and Gender Specialist. The procurement was rated as Satisfactory and environment and social safeguards as moderately satisfactory as of the most recent implementation support mission. However, the recruitment of the Finance and Accounting Specialist remains pending, as the initial recruitment process was unsuccessful. These advances are also accompanied by significant progress on the development of a grievance redress mechanism (GRM) which is responsive to sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment (SEA/SH). Finally, there has been significant improvement in M&E activities. F. RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING 16. The AF2 is needed to ensure continuity of core activities and to scale up and adjust current activities. Being responsive and flexible in its design, the project was able to respond to several unforeseen emergencies, ensuring poor and vulnerable households did not fall deeper into poverty. This emergency response entailed scaling up existing shock-responsive cash transfer activities beyond the initial plan of the project. As a result, the project is expected to fully disburse its IDA funds by April 2024, ahead of the actual project closure date (September 30, 2025). While the increased disbursement reflects the project’s success, it has created a funding shortfall. Meanwhile, the evolving circumstances in Mauritania since the parent project approval, including heightened climate shocks such as droughts and floods and the inflow of new waves of refugees, underscore the need to adjust and scale up core activities. This will ensure the continued relevance of the project in addressing the dynamic challenges faced by the country. 17. Bridging the financing gap is critical to ensure the continuity of core activities of the safety net system. While the project achieved its target in terms of number of beneficiaries, it must still fulfill its 23An independent financial institution with its own legal, financial, and institutional framework and governance structure, including a Board overseeing its activities. Page 7 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) commitment to support them until project closure. In addition, the recertification process24 identified beneficiary households who should exit the program after they benefit from the economic inclusion initiatives. Currently the project does not have sufficient funds to provide economic inclusion training and grants to all exiting beneficiaries, slowing the enrollment of newly identified extreme poor households into Tekavoul. Finally, the SR has launched its update process and reflections on its continuous update pilot, however, lacks funds to complete these pre-planned activities. 18. Sustainable solutions are needed to support host and refugee communities and to mitigate the demographic impact of the new arrivals. There has been an inflow of Malian refugees to Mauritania in 2022 and 2023. While some are settling in the Mbera camp, a significant number are settling in neighboring villages. Coupled with a decrease in humanitarian funding in the country, there is an explicit need and request to provide more support through the national safety net system. This inflow is straining host communities and exacerbating tensions over access to basic services and limited natural resources. With more arrivals expected, there is an urgent need to mitigate the impact of those new arrivals by helping households’ smooth consumption and promoting sustainable livelihoods for households in poverty among refugees and host communities. 19. Mauritania faces increasing challenges from climate shocks, exacerbating the existing food insecurity crisis and emphasizing the need for increased support to its shock response system. The Harmonized Framework (Cadre Harmonisé) from November 2023 estimates that 364,799 individuals will be food insecure during the 2024 lean season alone (June-September 2024), highlighting the need to scale up to support additional beneficiaries through the government led shock response programs. The government also needs continued technical assistance as it strengthens the system and the FNRCAN and addresses new types of shocks such as floods in addition to droughts. Despite the establishment of the FNRCAN a comprehensive shock-response strategy is still lacking, a gap that the AF2 aims to address by finalizing the strategy. Finally, given the discrepancies between the legal frameworks of FNRCAN and the original definition of the CFV in the parent project Financing Agreement, updates are necessary to accurately reflect the FNRCAN’s current legal framework and operational rules. II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING AND RESTRUCTURING OF THE PARENT PROJECT A. PDO AND BENEFICIARIES 20. The PDO remains the same as for the parent project: “to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system and its coverage of poor and vulnerable households with targeted social transfers, including in refugee and host communities.” 21. Project beneficiaries: The AF2 will ensure the project continues to cover 54,681 existing extremely poor households through the Tekavoul program, including 7,500 refugee households and 10,215 households in host communities. The AF2 will also cover an additional 5,000 vulnerable refugee households in and outside the Mbera camp. This represents half of all extreme poor households (the other half is covered by the Tekavoul program with government funding) and 30 percent of all poor households.25 The AF2 will cover all poor refugee households in the Mbera camp,26 around five percent of 24 The recertification process pertains to the update of the social registry and the re-assessment of Tekavoul beneficiaries who have been in the program for at least five years to determine whether they should exit the program. 25 Overall, the Tekavoul program covers 98,322 households (including beneficiaries covered by government funding) representing 54 percent of poor households according to the EPCV 2018 data. 26 The poorest households in category 1 as per the complementary targeting conducted by the registry in partnership with Page 8 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) the population of refugee households outside the camp (their poverty status is unknown), and over half of poor households in host communities. Finally, the project will cover an additional 15,000 vulnerable households affected by food insecurity and floods (which may overlap partly with the regular cash- transfer beneficiaries). The project will make a significant effort to enhance disability inclusion. According to the latest estimates only 714 households having members with disabilities benefit from regular Tekavoul cash transfers.27 B. COMPONENTS AND COSTS Changes to Components and Activities 22. The AF2 will be structured to co-finance and scale up existing components and activities of PASyFiS II in line with the government’s strategic vision for an integrated social protection program. The project components will remain the same. The proposed changes to the components’ costs are summarized in Table 1. Component 1: Updating and Enhancing the Social Registry (Total cost: US$9.1 million equivalent of which AF2: US$1.4 million IDA; US$1.4 million SASPP MDTF) 23. This AF2 will support the ongoing update and expansion of the SR. The registry initiated its update and scale up process in 2022, starting with the first regions that were included in the registry in 2016. As part of this process, a new methodology was developed which requires a complete census of households in the country to minimize exclusion errors (the census includes refugee households). The government also decided to scale up the SR from 200,000 to 300,000 households, which is equivalent to all households in the bottom two quintiles. The SR is the key targeting and coordination tool for the lean season response and as such its expansion to cover not only the poor but also vulnerable households is crucial to enable quick and efficient responses to climate shocks.28 The new methodology and scale up ensure greater data accuracy and reduce inclusion and exclusion errors, thus rendering the SR even more useful for its users and more accurate for targeting purposes. The update is already completed in 26 Moughataas, with plans to finalize the update in the remaining 56 remaining Moughataas by the end of 2024. This includes updating data for Hodh el Chargui, which will provide crucial information on newly arrived refugees and host communities. 24. In addition, the AF2 will support the development and piloting of a strategy for the continuous update of the SR to make it more dynamic. The government is committed to exploring ways to render the SR more efficient and effective. As such, it is exploring the concept of a dynamic registry which in essence allows any household in need to register or update their eligibility status at any time (to apply for inclusion). This is essential to ensure that programs have access to relevant and up to date information to target their programs, particularly shock response programs. In addition, this would enable refugees arriving after the registry update, both within the Mbera camp and outside the camp, to register and be 27 Currently this is measured using self-reported disability status as reported in the registry data, which is likely to underestimate the number of people with disabilities. 28 The expansion of beneficiaries is based on revised poverty figures from the 2019 Poverty and Living Standards Measurement Household Survey (Enquête sur la Pauvreté et les Conditions de Vie, EPCV) and the desire to also include vulnerable households (i.e. those who could fall into poverty following a shock). Page 9 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) registered at any time, enabling them to potentially receive support from existing programs in a context of declining humanitarian assistance. Component 2: Enhancing the socio-economic inclusion of poor households (Total cost: US$70.4 million equivalent of which AF2: US$19.1 million IDA; US$6.4 million SASPP MDTF) 25. The AF2 will support the Tekavoul social transfer program, i.e., the regular cash transfers and social promotion accompanying measures. The parent project is currently supporting 54,681 poor and extremely poor households with regular cash transfers including 7,500 refugee households and 10,512 households from host communities. The AF2 will allow the project to maintain its commitments to beneficiaries in terms of sustaining regular cash transfers until project close thus ensuring uninterrupted benefits for recipients. The AF2 will finance quarterly cash transfers of 1,500 MRU (US$40 equivalent) and social promotion activities for 2024 and 2025 to existing beneficiaries. The government will continue to complement this amount as per its commitment.29 The AF will also address challenges associated with the timeliness of payments by streamlining the payment process and ensuring that each payment can be done independently of the closure of the previous payment cycle. 26. The AF2 will also finance a scale up of Tekavoul to cover an additional 5,000 refugee households (for a total of 12,500 households) and an increase in the transfer value from 1,500 to 3,600 MRU for refugees. The SR recently registered 2,500 newly arrived refugee households in the Mbera camp who were identified as eligible for inclusion in Tekavoul using the methodology developed by humanitarian actors. The AF2 will finance their coverage within the Tekavoul program. In addition, Mauritania is experiencing an inflow of refugees who are settling outside of the camp. As such, the AF2 will also pilot the inclusion of 2,500 newly arrived refugee households outside the camp. This will require a careful assessment alongside UNHCR to understand whether the targeting methodology developed for the camp is applicable and to ensure that host communities are appropriately considered, to preserve social cohesion. Finally, the AF will finance the increase in transfer value from 1,500 MRU to 3,600 MRU per quarter for all existing and new refugee households in the Tekavoul program to bring them in line with national Tekavoul beneficiaries who are topped up by the government budget. The AF2 will ensure equity in transfer value for all beneficiaries. 27. The AF2 will finance economic inclusion measures for around 6,000 households exiting the program primarily targeting women. In Moughataas where the Tekavoul program has been implemented for more than five years, households who are no longer categorized as extremely poor following the registry update will leave the program as per the exit strategy, while those still categorized as extremely poor will be re-enrolled for a new five-year cycle. This will allow for the integration of new beneficiary households. The package of economic inclusion measures builds on the lessons learned from an earlier pilot which was rigorously evaluated, and on efforts to consolidate economic inclusion programs in the country. It consists of three phases: (i) pre-creation support; (ii) monetary grants; and (iii) post-creation support.30 The parent project already supported the pre-creation training for the first exiting cohort but 29 While the project provides MRU 1,500, the government has committed to increase the value of the transfer to 3,600 by 2024. Currently the transfer value is MRU 2,900 per quarter. The government tops up the transfer provided by the project to reach the required amount. This top up however excludes refugee households. 30 The pre-creation phase helps beneficiaries come up with project ideas and provides them with the basic skills needed to manage their productive activities. It includes ideation, entrepreneurship and life-skills training modules which help women beneficiaries overcome social norms and boost their aspirations. During this phase, beneficiaries are encouraged to identify sustainable sources of income, and to diversify their activities in order to increase their resilience. Beneficiaries then receive Page 10 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) did not have the budget to start activities with other exiting cohorts. The AF2 will finance the pre-creation training for beneficiaries from cohort 2, and livelihood grants and post-creation support for beneficiaries from cohorts 1 and 2.31 These measures will play a crucial role in supporting beneficiaries (women in particular) overcome labor market constraints and challenges in accessing finance to start or expand their own businesses, and thereby also increasing their employability. The delays with the implementation of this component were related to the delay in updating the registry data and identifying existing households which is a prerequisite in the current strategy. No further delays are expected given that the targeting is now completed for the first three cohorts. To avoid those issues for future cohorts, the entry and exit strategy of the program will be revisited to reduce interdependencies with registry updates. 28. The AF2 will finance a scale up of economic inclusion interventions with a streamlined and customized package to cover 5,000 Tekavoul host and refugee households. In view of the increased arrival of refugees and the need to provide more sustainable support to these communities, the economic inclusion activities will be scaled up to 2,500 refugee households and 2,500 host households selected among beneficiaries of the Tekavoul cash transfer program. This will not only benefit these vulnerable communities but also serve as a first step to utilizing economic inclusion to boost the safety net’s productive impact beyond the exit strategy. The package will be adjusted to facilitate its implementation at scale and the trainings will be tailored to meet the needs of refugees and host-communities, in close collaboration with UNHCR, focusing on three key areas: (i) social cohesion: this may include community- level sensitization and group-based activities between refugees and host communities; (ii) sustainable livelihoods: given the existing tensions around natural resources and the imperative to adapt to climate change, the package will provide additional support to households in identifying and engaging in sustainable activities. The focus will be climate adaptation thought promotion of climate smart agriculture and diversification of livelihoods beyond agriculture and livestock activities toward off-farm activities that are less exposed to climate change; and (iii) socio-emotional skills: acknowledging the psychological toll of displacement, the socioemotional skills components of the package will be strengthened. An evaluation of this adapted package will be undertaken. 29. Finally, the AF2 will continue to support the ANRPTS to facilitate the registration of Tekavoul beneficiary households. This will include the organization of community outreach sessions and the coordination with all actors involved in the civil registration process. Component 3: Strengthening the shock response system for households vulnerable to climate-shocks (Total cost: US$36.1 million equivalent of which AF2: US$3.5 million IDA; US$2.2million SASPP MDTF) 30. The AF2 will support the scale up of the shock responsive programs (Elmaouna and the Tekavoul shock-response pilot) in 2024 and 2025. It will support an additional 15,000 vulnerable households affected by either floods or climate-induced food insecurity during the lean season with shock-responsive cash-transfers channeled via the FNRCAN. This will complement the contributions of the government and other development partners (in particular AFD) to the FNRCAN and will contribute to establishing the FNRCAN as the main financing vehicle for food security responses. The areas of interventions will be based on the PNR, and the beneficiaries will be selected from the SR based on the set of criteria to identify the coaching to develop of a brief concise business plan. Beneficiaries then receive a grant equivalent to approximately US$300, to help them overcome constraints in accessing finance. Post-creation support is a coaching program during which beneficiaries receive additional support to develop their productive activities. 31 It is assumed that only beneficiaries benefiting from the pre-creation support will go on to receive the start-up grant. Page 11 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) households who are most vulnerable to food insecurity (defined among the 60 socio-economic characteristics of households included in the SR following a participative process led by the CSA). 31. The AF2 will revise the definition of the CFV. The definition of the CFV in the Financing Agreement will be revised to reflect the adopted modalities and legal framework as well as the institutional arrangements of the FNRCAN, which is a financing vehicle but not a full-fledged financial institution as initially described.32 32. The AF will provide the FNRCAN with continued support to its consolidation and advocacy to ensure it becomes the unique financing mechanism for food insecurity and nutritional crisis. While the government is committed to increase its contributions to the FNRCAN in the short and medium term, the FNRCAN needs to be strengthened on three key aspects: (i) optimizing and streamlining its processes by adjusting the operational manual that was adopted by the government in June 2023 with support from AFD and the World Bank; (ii) supporting and building capacity in the accounting departments of the CSA, the fund’s authorizing officer; and (iii) raising awareness and advocacy by other humanitarian and development partners. Finally, the AF2 will support the finalization of the financing strategy to respond to food-insecurity shocks. 33. The AF2 will continue to support the government's capacity to respond to floods, building on the first pilot implemented in 2023. This support will consolidate the government's experience in deploying the adaptive social protection system in place to respond to rapid-onset crises. Component 4: Project Coordination and Management (Total cost: US$5.4 million equivalent of which AF2: US$2.0 million IDA) 34. The proposed AF2 will continue to support activities related to the management of the project including fiduciary management, safeguards functions, M&E among other. Table 1. Revised budget per component (US$ million equivalent) Project Cost AF Revised Components (current)33 Budget 1: Updating and enhancing the Social Registry 6.3 2.8 9.1 IDA 3.9 1.4 5.3 SASPP MDTF 0.9 1.4 2.3 Counterpart funding 1.5 - 1.5 2: Enhancing the socio-economic inclusion of poor households 44.9 25.5 70.4 IDA 28.2 19.1 47.2 SASPP MDTF - 6.4 6.5 Counterpart funding 16.7 - 16.7 3: Strengthening the shock response system for households vulnerable to 30.4 5.7 36.1 climate-shocks IDA 11.3 3.5 14.8 SASPP MDTF 19.1 2.2 21.3 32 The FNRCAN was designed as a Special Budget Allocation (Budget d’Allocation Spécial) with the objective of financing the National Response Plan under the budgetary authority of the CSA, and not an independent financial institution with its own legal, financial, and institutional framework and governance structure. 33 The current project cost reflects the counterpart funding but also the reallocation of funds between components since the effectiveness of the parent project. Component costs vary from their initial plan in the parent project (P171125) PAD (Project Appraisal Document) and the first AF project paper. Page 12 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Counterpart funding - - - 4: Project coordination and management 3.4 2.0 5.4 IDA 1.6 2.0 3.6 SASPP MDTF - - Counterpart funding 1.8 1.8 TOTAL 85.0 36.0 121.0 35. Extension of the project from September 30, 2025 to June 30, 2026. This extension of the closing date is needed to ensure that the scaled up economic inclusion activities can be completed. The program needs time to carry out the geographic and household targeting, and to accompany beneficiaries throughout the nine-month support, including coaching of beneficiaries after they receive the grant. In addition, the extension will allow time to support a transition from project funded cash transfers to government-funded ones by providing continuous technical assistance. The registry will also pilot its continuous update methodology which will require time to develop and subsequently implement this new approach. Finally, the AF2 will support the evaluations of the productive inclusion scale up and the registry methodology- both which will be completed in 2026. 36. To ensure continuity of the implementation of the activities between the first and the second additional financing for the project, retroactive financing is requested for the AF2. Retroactive financing would allow the financing of eligible expenditures for the implementation of the project under all disbursement categories which are incurred and documented in accordance with the provisions included or referred to in the legal agreements. The period for retroacting financing will begin on April 1, 2024, and the maximum aggregate amount will be equivalent to US$7.2 million equivalent, which shall be allocated pro-rata to each of the parts of the IDA and SASPP MDTF financing by window. C. KEY INDICATORS AND RESULTS 37. The targets of some PDO and intermediate indicators will be updated to reflect the achievements and scale-up of activities, and new intermediate indicators will be introduced. The update and addition of new indicators will improve the supervision of existing activities. Table 2 presents the changes to the PDO indicator targets that result from the AF2 to reflect the expanded scope. The PDO objective has been subdivided into three objectives instead of two and as such new indicators were added. The targets of the intermediate indicators will also be adjusted, and some new ones added (particularly on disability, economic inclusion, flood response and gender). Finally, the end target date of most indicators has been changed to be in line with the new proposed closing date of the project. The full list of indicators and targets are included in the Results Framework (Section VIII). The updated Theory of Change for the Project introduced with AF2 is presented in Annex 1. Table 2. Revised PDO indicators Original Achieved to Revised PDO Indicator Name Revised indicator target date target Increased effectiveness of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system SSN programs' beneficiary households avoiding negative Deleted - - coping strategies (national/refugees) Page 13 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Beneficiaries of the Elmaouna and Tekavoul shock programs receiving shock responsive cash transfers on time New indicator NA NA 80% (Percentage) Increased efficiency of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system No change- Placed Programs using the Social Registry to select their beneficiaries under separate 7 15 15 (Number) objective Increased coverage of poor and vulnerable households with targeted social transfers, including in refugee and host communities Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (CRI, Number) Target increased 934,321 1,207,927 1,279,927 Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Female (CRI, Target increased 522,923 773,356 819,452 Number) Beneficiaries of social safety net programs – Refugees Target increased 19,500 44,370 71,000 (Number) Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Host New sub-indicator - 91,686 91,686 communities (Number) Beneficiaries of social safety net programs – persons with New sub-indicator 0 NA 2,000 disability (Number) Beneficiaries of social safety net programs – Youths (Number) New sub-indicator 73,700 481,479 510,178 D. GENDER 38. The proposed AF2 will continue and strengthen the gender approach under the parent project. Women in Mauritania face significant challenges on several fronts. They are less likely to enter the labor market (57 percent of women do not work for earnings and are not looking for a job while 54.85 percent are neither in education, employment, or training)34 and even when they do enter it are more likely to be unemployed. Also, the share of women who are work outside of agriculture is just five percent, one of the lowest rates in the world.35 Women face challenges in terms of access to finance which limits their ability to start their own business. Overall, women represent only 13 percent of the private sector workforce in Mauritania, one of the lowest rates of private sector participation globally and less than in such peer countries as Senegal, Benin, and Morocco.36 39. As in the parent project, the AF2 will continue to address gender issues. The main gender gaps the AF2 seeks to address are women’s decision making and access to finance to empower them economically. The Tekavoul cash transfer program targets women, while Tekavoul's social promotion sessions and productive inclusion activities include modules on gender awareness, measures to mitigate the risk of GBV by providing safe training spaces for girls and women and recruiting trainers or coaches to support beneficiaries. Cash transfers have been proven to promote resilience and improve consumption and wellbeing. More importantly, the productive inclusion activities primarily target women. These activities will provide women with entrepreneurship training and a grant to help them expand their economic participation and income. The trainings have been designed in such a way to facilitate women’s 34 World Bank. 2024. Mauritania Human Capital Review. Building, Utilizing, and Protecting Human Capital for Inclusive and Resilient Economic Development. Washington DC: World Bank. 35 World Bank. 2024. Mauritania Human Capital Review. Building, Utilizing, and Protecting Human Capital for Inclusive and Resilient Economic Development. Washington DC: World Bank. 36 World Bank. 2021. Quatrième rapport sur la Situation Économique en Mauritanie : Un meilleur avenir : accélérer la relance économique en misant sur le potentiel des femmes © World Bank Page 14 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) participation by being mindful of the time, location and spacing of the sessions. Finally, the activities will continue to benefit from the support of the Africa Gender Innovation Lab in the implementation of a pilot gender training activity, that promotes intra household cooperation and seeks to limit the risks of conflict between husband and wife, which could arise from shifts in the dynamics of managing household finances. Preliminary short-term results from the evaluation show that the training shifted key indicators of women empowerment and women’s participation in economic activities and decision making. The AF2 introduced new gender disaggregated indicators, notably on the economic inclusion activities, including a new indicator tracking the number of women who started or expanded their economic activity following reception of the grant and training. E. CLIMATE CHANGE 40. Mauritania is facing significant environmental challenges related to climate change (droughts, floods, rising saltwater, shrinking agro-pastoral areas, sandstorms). In recent years, temperatures, droughts and floods have risen and taken a toll on the economic performance, particularly through agriculture, livestock and fishing, with consequence most pronounced for poor households who rely on subsistence agricultural production and thus are least resilient. Climate change is a main driver of malnutrition in Mauritania: the 2017 drought for example led to 20 percent of the population being impacted by acute food insecurity.37 According to projections, the risks and frequency of droughts will increase, impacting transhumance routes, food security, and intensifying conflicts between farmers and herders due to scarcity of pastures and water.38 Natural resource competition and natural disasters are also triggering migration, with people moving from Mali to escape even harsher climate conditions, increasing the pressure on natural resources in Mauritania. The consequences will mainly affect rural populations, constituting 43 percent of the population in 202239 and harboring most of poverty. 41. The AF2 is in line with the World Bank climate change commitments, the G5 Sahel Region Climate and Development Report. It incorporates climate change considerations in the project design. The parent project’s core activities are focused on climate adaptation activities, which will be further strengthened under the AF2. Under Component 1, the new ongoing registration processes and scale-up of the SR will ensure data is accurate and thus allow for rapid scale-up with an efficient targeting of households in need of assistance following climate shocks in the future. The use of the SR by various government and humanitarian actors will also ensure better coordination and, consequently, a more efficient response to support vulnerable households to cope with climate shocks that cause food and nutritional insecurity. Under Component 2 the scale-up of the regular Tekavoul program directly intends to increase the resilience of population vulnerable to climate change by offering regular cash transfers (covering immediate food security needs including those resulting from climate change, but also savings to cope with climate shocks) as well as accompanying measures promoting adaptation strategies to climate change. The economic inclusion measures include coaching to identify sustainable livelihood options and promote diversification of income sources. An impact evaluation of a pilot economic inclusion package showed that providing a grant, coaching, savings mechanisms, and business and life skills training led beneficiaries to start new businesses, diversify their income sources, and invest more labor and capital in these income generating activities. This had positive effects on household's consumption and food security, pointing to a potentially greater resilience of households to climate shocks. Under Component 3 37 IMF country report No. 23/74, December 2022 38 World Bank (2022). G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report. 39 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?name_desc=true&locations=MR Page 15 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) the government shock response system will be strengthened through the scale up of the shock responsive cash transfers in the event of climate shocks, the enhancement of the ESW system and the further operationalization of the FNRCAN – the key funding mechanism to respond to food security shocks. The AF2 will also expand the government’s capability to respond to floods building on the pilot undertaken in 2023. These activities will enable the poorest and most vulnerable households to adapt to the effects of climate change. F. PARIS ALIGNMENT 42. The operation is aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement on both mitigation and adaptation. As highlighted previously, the operation is consistent with Mauritania’s climate strategies (particularly the NDC). The AF2 aligns with the World Bank's climate change commitments and the Mauritanian government's obligations. Mauritania submitted its NDCs under the Paris Agreement and updated them at the Conference of the Parties 26 meeting in Glasgow, setting a new target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 11 percent by 2030. The activities of the AF2 are in harmony with the parent project, and climate screening confirms that the project's soft components will help mitigate climate change risks. 43. Assessment and reduction of adaptation risks: The climate and disaster risk screening reveals a high exposure of project sites to climate and disaster risks, such as droughts and floods. However, it identifies a low risk of climate or disaster risks impacting the project’s ability to achieve its outcomes, which are generally expected to reduce climate and disaster risks. As mentioned above, the AF2 will continue financing and scaling up activities in the parent project. The focus on cash transfers, economic inclusion activities, the scale up of the registry and shock responsive cash transfers all contribute to increasing the adaptation capacity of poor and vulnerable households in the face of climate shocks, thus preventing them from relying on negative coping strategies and maintaining or improving their food security. Adaptation risks are therefore assessed to be limited to an acceptable level. 44. Assessment and reduction of mitigation risks: The operation’s activities will not have a negative impact on the country’s transition to a low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development pathway. The project will focus on sectors which will not lead to significant GHG emissions. Indeed, many activities financed through the project, such as cash transfers and entrepreneurship training (economic inclusion) feature on the Joint Multilateral Development Bank list of activities considered universally aligned. The only potential source of significant greenhouse gas emission identified is the use of vehicles for the distribution or cash transfers, field missions, targeting and the like. However, these are considered minor and to mitigate the risk the project is following best practice in the purchase and maintenance of such vehicles to ensure the most environmentally efficient material when available. G. CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT 45. The parent project has established strong mechanisms for citizen engagement. Both the SR and the Tekavoul program have strong GRM systems in place. They include a toll-free number, in addition to the ability to lodge complaints with field workers (animateurs). The GRMs are also accessible in the Mbera camps among refugee populations through the same channels. In addition, the project has a focal point based in the region whose role it is to liaise between UNHCR, the project and refugee populations in Mbera to highlight any potential issues. There are also dedicated social workers (animateurs) in the region who work with host and refugee communities regularly. The SR and Tekavoul program present the GRM and all its reporting channels during the general assemblies they organize for registration, targeting and Page 16 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) enrollment. The general assemblies include refugees in Mberra camp and will include refugees outside the camp. In addition, the Tekavoul card includes the toll-free number on it. The GRMs develop monthly reports which provide data on the number, type and severity of complaints or questions received, and information on whether they have been resolved in a timely manner. The reports reveal that the toll-free numbers are used by many beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries with most calls pertaining to requests for information or inclusion into the registry or Tekavoul. In addition, the project also contracted an external firm to undertake spotcheck surveys (akin to post-distribution monitoring). The spotcheck surveys are deployed after each payment cycle or after the registry deployment in a new area. The spotcheck surveys help identify any discrepancies between the operations manual and the actual implementation but also collect beneficiary feedback on the process and their satisfaction. H. DISABILITY INCLUSION 46. In Mauritania, similarly to other countries of the region, households with persons with disabilities are among the most vulnerable. Households having persons with disabilities are more likely to find themselves in a situation of exclusion, extreme poverty and food insecurity. However, the data on persons with disabilities, their needs, and the barriers they face is lacking in Mauritania which impacts the ability to plan, deliver and evaluate inclusive activities. Data from the last population census in 2012 suggests that 33,920 people (or 0.96 percent of the population) suffer from some kind of disability, but the real percentage could be much higher than this. Various steps will be taken to enhance the disability- inclusiveness of the parent projects. This includes the organization of meaningful consultations with organizations of persons with disabilities involving the Mauritanian Federation of National Associations of People with Disabilities (Fédération Mauritanienne des Associations Nationales de Personnes Handicapées - FEMANPH). According to the last estimates from the project management information system, only 714 households benefiting from Tekavoul had members with disabilities. This number entails that either the identification of persons with disabilities is weak with significant underreporting, or there are genuine barriers for persons with disabilities to access the Tekavoul cash transfer program.40 For the first project component, the project team will explore the possibility of using the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning for better identification of persons with disabilities in the SR. In addition, the AF will introduce a new indicator to track the number of people with disabilities benefiting from the program, and more analytical work will be conducted to better understand the constraints that people with disabilities face. This will be a step forward to increase inclusion of persons with disabilities in the programs in the future. III. KEY RISKS 47. The overall risk rating for the Project remains moderate. 48. Others - Risks related to the refugees and host communities’ engagement are Substantial. The parent project extended social protection to refugees and host communities. The AF2 will also target refugees and host communities, particularly outside the Mbera camp, where the project has not supported refugees in the past. To mitigate those risks, the project will work closely with UNHCR to develop the most effective targeting strategy and to better understand the needs of newly arrived 40 Under the Emel safety nets program the income-generating activities for persons with disabilities were already implemented in the past. K Chembe & B Fagbayibo ‘Country report: Republic of Mauritania’ (2018) 6 African Disability Rights Yearbook 184-212 http://doi.org/10.29053/2413-7138/2018/v6n1a9 Page 17 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) refugees (as it has done in the past), and spot-checks will be conducted regularly in those areas, and a focal point has been appointed to coordinate refugee interventions with other actors, based in Bassikounou. There are no additional risks linked to this AF beyond those identified by the parent project. Therefore, the related risk remains Substantial. IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 49. The AF does not substantially change the economic and financial analysis of the parent project. The activities are expected to continue to provide the benefits identified for the parent project in a cost- effective way. Since its launch, the project has demonstrated significant economic benefits, including: (i) better targeting of social programs; (ii) reduced losses because of more efficient shock-response systems; and (iii) increased household welfare: improved consumption and reduced use of negative-coping strategies, increased income-generating opportunities, financial inclusion, gender equality and human development. This section provides updated information on the benefits generated by the project using recent data sources and evaluations. 50. The regular cash-transfer program supported through this AF has demonstrated significant economic impacts at household level. Preliminary results from the impact evaluation of the Tekavoul program show significant impact on a range of outcomes. While the impact of cash transfers on consumption is relatively small (due to the small size of the transfer value at the time of the evaluation), the program led to significant increases in savings, increased the number of businesses managed by beneficiaries, and increased the numbers of meals per day for children. It is important to note that the transfer value has been significantly increased since the impact evaluation. The impact evaluation also reports a decrease in the use of adverse coping strategies (such as decreasing health and education expenditure) after a shock, which are recurrent in the region. While the impact evaluation did not include refugee hosting communities, cash-transfers are expected to provide help these households meet their most pressing needs without resorting to negative coping strategies, and build and support their livelihoods, thereby benefiting the local economy. 51. A distributional analysis and simulation demonstrate that the expansion of the regular cash transfer program and increase in transfer value could lead to significant distributional impacts. The cash transfer program in Mauritania represents by far the largest social safety net in the country, followed by food distribution (2.7 percent of coverage). Unlike food distribution, the targeting of the cash transfers program is highly progressive. In what follows, we present static simulations41 of the impact of the cash transfer program on poverty using data from the 2019 Living Standards Measurement Household Survey (Enquête sur la Pauvreté et les Conditions de Vie, EPCV) and different poverty lines.42 According to the EPCV, 6.8 percent of the population was extremely poor in 2019, corresponding to about 38,000 41 It is assumed that the cash transfers do not impact the labor market participation rate of beneficiary households and that the full transfer amount is added to the household’s consumption rather than being partially saved. 42 According to the Cost of Basic Need approach, the poverty line is at MRU 201,232 per capita per year (31.8 percent of poor) and the extreme poverty threshold is at 112,802 2019 (6.4 percent of extreme poor) (see World Bank poverty assessment 2022). The national poverty line, at MRU 19,100 per year (28.2 percent) and the national extreme poverty line at 14,200 MRU (12.8 percent) have been based on the daily threshold of US$1 set in 1985 and updated with the rate of inflation. Page 18 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) households.43 At baseline, the impact of the cash transfer program on consumption and poverty was low, due to a low coverage (6.8 percent of the population and 10.9 percent of the poor) and small transfer values. Simulations of the impact of the increase in the coverage of the safety net program achieved in recent years as well as the increase in transfer values show that the cash transfers could have significant impacts on poverty. As presented in Table 3, the headcount ratio for extreme poverty decreases significantly with the expansion of coverage to more beneficiaries. The poverty reduction impacts are even stronger with the increase in transfer value to 14,400 MRU annually (i.e., 3,600 MRU quarterly)44. With this increase, the international extreme poverty headcount would decrease by 34.8 percent. In addition, the reduction in the poverty gaps is substantial for all poverty lines, ranging from a decrease of 19.8 to 46.2 percent. The cost of the cash transfer program after the expansion and increase in transfer values (around 0.38 percent of GDP) remains relatively low compared to other cash transfer programs.45 Table 3. Impact of Tekavoul extension – on poverty headcount and poverty gap Extension to 100,000 households % of poverty Baseline in Benefit of 6.000 Benefit of A. Poverty Headcount reduction (3)- 2019 (1) MRU) (2) 14.400 MRU) (3) (1)/((3) Int. extreme poverty line (11,280 MRU) 6.4 5.19 4.17 -34.8 National extreme poverty line (14,200 MRU) 13.2 11.28 9.48 -28.2 National poverty line (19,010 MRU) 28.46 28.45 27.66 -2.8 World Bank poverty line (20,123 MRU) 31.84 31.84 31.73 -0.3 Coverage (%) 6.8 22.7 22.7 Coverage (hh) 40,000 100,000 100,000 Cost (% of GDP) 0.01 0.16 0.38 International. extreme poverty line (11,280 1.56 1.26 0.84 -46.2 MRU) National extreme poverty line (14,200 MRU) 3.2 2.64 1.86 -41.9 National poverty line (19,010 MRU) 7.6 6.93 5.85 -23.0 World Bank poverty line (20,123 MRU) 8.83 8.1 7.08 -19.8 52. The regular Tekavoul cash-transfers and the shock-response programs supported through this AF can help increase household resilience to shocks. Cash transfers can play an important role in building resilience to shocks by allowing households to diversify their income sources and better smooth their consumption when agricultural incomes decline.46 Such positive effects of cash transfers on resilience with respect to shocks have been observed in Niger, Nicaragua, Zambia, and Ethiopia, where the Productive Safety Nets Program reduced the initial impact of drought on beneficiaries by 57 percent, eliminating the 43 The annual amount of CT was 4,500 MRO, equivalent to 3 times the quarterly amount of 1,500 MRO (due to possible delay in the last payment) and the timeframe of the survey, with data collected from November 2019 to March 2020 (Poverty assessment 2022). 44 Equivalent to around USD$360 USD annually and around USD$90 per quarter. 45 World Bank team simulation. 46 Premand, P., Stoeffler; Q. (2022). Cash transfers, climatic shocks and resilience in the Sahel. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 116, 102744. Macours, K., Premand, P., and R. Vakis (2022). Transfers, Diversification and Household Risk Strategies: Can Productive Safety Nets Help Households Manage Climatic Variability? The Economic Journal, vol. 132, issue 647, 2438-2470. Page 19 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) adverse impact on food security within two years.47 The proposed shock-response under the AF2 supports a cash transfer supplement for households affected by shocks, which is expected to increase the impact on households’ resilience from high exposure to shocks in Mauritania. A recent evaluation of the Elmaouna program has shown the positive effect of the shock-response on the quantity and quality of food, as well as a reduction in debts and increase financial inclusion. 53. The economic inclusion packages supported through this AF have the potential to provide beneficiaries with a pathway to higher earnings and increased resilience. Households who have been identified to exit the Tekavoul program, as well as selected beneficiaries of the Tekavoul program among refugees and host communities, will participate in a comprehensive package of economic inclusion measures. Those measures build on an earlier pilot which was rigorously evaluated as part of the impact evaluation of Tekavoul. Preliminary results from the impact evaluation in Mauritania show positive and significant impacts of the interventions on household consumption and food security, spending on health, household income, savings, and women empowerment. A series of impact evaluations in the regions consistently show that the productive measures have substantially impacted economic indicators such as consumption, food security, investments, savings, or income from women’s income-generating activities. They have helped households diversify their economic activities, and increased investments in non- agricultural activities have led to significant income growth. Productive inclusion measures show impacts on beneficiaries' consumption at least 1.2 to 2.1 times higher than the program cost, demonstrating a strong return on investment. This is consistent from results in other regions.48 While rigorous evidence is scant in contexts of forced displacement, recent studies suggest economic inclusion programs can have large effects for those target groups as well.49 They have the potential to increase refugees and host communities’ ability to meet their basic needs and help them become more productive and resilient and increase social cohesion. Sustainability 54. The AF2 will increase the sustainability of the shock-response system in the country. The AF2 will contribute to increase the sustainability of the shock-responsive interventions in the country by channeling resources through the FNRCAN, a dedicated budgetary mechanism that aligns and optimizes financing for responses to food and nutritional crises. Prior to the establishment of the FNRCAN, the response to food insecurity crises was largely financed through ad-hoc donor support and a fluctuating government budget allocation channeled through multiple budget lines. This prevented a consolidated financial management and represented a significant risk of overlap and delays in the overall response, potentially compounding the initial impacts of these shocks. Established as the financial arm of the DCAN, the FNRCAN seeks to bring all resources under a unique consolidated account. By doing so, the FNRCAN provides a clear, rule-based framework for monitoring funds and conducting evaluations. As a single platform for financing food insecurity crises, the FNRCAN will also ensure a coordinated and harmonized 47 Knippenberg, E., and Hoddinott, J.F. (2017). Shocks, social protection, and resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia. ESSP Working Paper 109. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI); Asfaw, S., Carraro, A., Davis, B., Handa, S. and D. Seidenfeld (2017). Cash transfer programmes, weather shocks and household welfare: evidence from a randomised experiment in Zambia, Journal of Development Effectiveness, vol. 9:4, 419- 442. 48 Andrews, Colin; de Montesquiou, Aude; Arevalo Sanchez, Ines; Dutta, Puja Vasudeva; Paul, Boban Varghese; Samaranayake, Sadna; Heisey, Janet; Clay, Timothy; Chaudhary, Sarang. 2021. The State of Economic Inclusion Report 2021: The Potential to Scale. © Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34917 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. 49 Heisey, Janet; Sánchez, Inés Arévalo; Bernagros, Alexi. 2022. Working for Inclusion: Economic Inclusion in Contexts of Forced Displacement. PEI In Practice;Vol.4. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37575 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Page 20 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) approach among government entities and (inter)national humanitarian and development partners, further reducing transactional costs and improving efficiency. The government is strongly committed to financing an increasing share of the PNR in the coming years via the FNRCAN, but the financial sustainability of shock-responsive systems will nonetheless continue to require donors’ support. The FNRCAN can accommodate different requirements (such as focusing on specific activities in the PNR), e.g. temporary cash transfers, child and mother nutrition interventions…). Likewise, contributions can be disbursed in single tranches or be programmed as multi-year contributions spanning various lean seasons. Ultimately, this allows for quicker, more coordinated and swifter responses to food insecurity. B. Technical 55. The technical analysis of the parent project remains relevant and valid for the AF2. There are no new activities and no changes to the design of initial project activities, so the technical analysis remains the same. The design is still aligned with the ASP principles, and its engagement on corporate priorities, such as gender, climate change, and citizen engagement, will continue. The following technical aspects are highlighted as they reflect technical modifications to existing components and are an important part of the AF2. 56. The AF2 will help consolidate the progress on the operationalization of FNRCAN. The FNRCAN was established to consolidate financial resources mobilized by the government, and the humanitarian and development partners and act as the unique channel to finance the annual PNR to respond to food insecurity and nutritional crisis. Technical assistance was provided in coordination with WFP and AFD to ensure best international practices were incorporated in the design and operational procedures. Following lessons learned from similar financial mechanisms established in the country, it ensures a concerted mechanism under the DCAN to provide a rapid, coordinated, and effective response to food insecurity and nutritional crisis. Food insecurity in Mauritania represents a significant risk to the country’s development objective of reducing poverty but also could represents a heavy burden for the government budget and public finances. In response to the 2012 food insecurity crisis, the government incurred unplanned expenditure equivalent to 10 percent of its annual budget, resulting in a budget deficit of four percent of GDP. The FNRCAN protects the national budget from the potential fiscal impacts of disaster and climate-related shocks and contributes to the achievement of budgetary and development objectives providing a coordinated solution to crises within a common framework. 57. The AF2 will support the implementation of economic inclusion measures for households exiting the program, building on lessons learned from Mauritania and international best practice. The design of the economic inclusion measures in Tekavoul builds on international best practice as well as on the results from the impact evaluation of the pilot implemented in Mauritania. As per the exit strategy developed by the parent project, Tekavoul beneficiaries who are no longer classified as poor or extreme poor following the registry update will receive a package of economic inclusion measure. They will continue to benefit from cash transfers for one year alongside the economic inclusion package with the aim of maintaining and further strengthening their economic wellbeing once they exit the program. Impact evaluation results in several countries in the Sahel including Mauritania show that economic inclusion interventions are impactful in fostering investments in income-generating activities, with transformative effects on poor households’ livelihoods and well-being. In addition, selected beneficiaries among refugees and host communities will also receive a customized economic inclusion package. The design of the package will be adjusted to their needs, building on a careful assessment of their needs and experience from other countries in the region (including Niger, Chad, and Ethiopia). The package will also be streamlined to facilitate implementation at scale, building on lessons learned from earlier phases. Page 21 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) 58. The AF2 will contribute to build a SR in compliance with international standards. The parent project developed a new methodology for the second generation of the SR being deployed. The AF2 will support this deployment effort and particularly the participative and community-based approach to targeting as well as the scale up of the SR. The scaling up of the registry to include not only poor but also vulnerable households follows from best practice in developing ASP systems- reaching shock affected households in a timely manner requires having data and information on those households prior to the shock. This also is behind the rationale for the continuous update pilot which would allow to not only capture changes in households’ circumstances (thus improving targeting for shock response) but also ensures the inclusion of new refugees on a rolling basis (a vulnerable group who could be severely impacted by shock). This approach will be implemented through a multi-stakeholder consultation framework. C. Financial Management 59. No changes will be made to the Financial Management (FM) system developed for the initial project, as it is fully functional and performing well. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) that is currently implementing the PASyFiS II will continue to manage the overall fiduciary responsibilities for the AF2. 60. The PASyFiS II continues to maintain acceptable FM and disbursement arrangements, which are adequate for the AF2 as per the requirements under World Bank Policy and Procedure for Investment Project Financing (IPF) operations The overall fiduciary risk for the parent project is rated as “moderate”. The overall FM performance of the parent project was rated “moderately satisfactory” following the last FM supervision mission in October 2023. 61. The project implementing agency is adequately staffed with experienced and qualified personnel for financial management to continue to handle the workload of the project. However, it is imperative to appoint or recruit a dedicated administrative and financial officer exclusively for the project, unlike the current part-time arrangement. 62. Funds flow. A new Designated Account (DA) will be opened exclusively for FRNCAN operations. This DA will be held under the fiduciary responsibility of the PASyFiS II PIU. To this end, PASyFiS II will be granted delegated authority for the operational and accounting management of the DA, which will operate the same way as other PASyFiS II DAs. However, any transaction initiated on the new DA will be subject to an operational/payment order issued by FRNCAN, in accordance with its internal procedures. As for the parent project, the disbursements will be based on Statements of Expenditures. Other disbursement methods such as reimbursement, special commitment and for instance, direct payment will apply as well. Additional instructions are provided in the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter for this AF. 63. The accounts of the AF2 will be kept in the existing TomPro accounting software used for the original financing activities. However, the accounting system requires calibration to meet the AF2 needs. As in the initial financing, the PIU will prepare and submit acceptable unaudited Interim Financial Reports to the World Bank within 45 days after the end of each quarter including information related to the AF2. 64. No separate audit report would be required regarding the AF2, which will be added to the original project with separate disclosures in the notes to the financial statements. The audits will be conducted based on International Standards on Auditing, by a firm acceptable to the World Bank. The Page 22 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) audit report will be submitted to the World Bank on a yearly basis, along with the respective management letters within six (6) months of the end of the fiscal year. 65. The residual FM risk for the project after the mitigating measures is assessed to be moderate. Table 4 presents the actions to be taken. Table 4. FM Action Plan Responsible Action to be taken Expected completion date body 1 Revise the POM to include the AF2 specificities One month after effectiveness PIU 2 Recruit or appoint a dedicated administrative and financial officer exclusively One month after effectiveness PIU for the project based on Terms of reference (ToR) acceptable to IDA 3 Migrate the existing TomPro accounting software to include the AF2 activities One month after effectiveness PIU 4 Extend the ToR of the external auditor to cover the AF2 activities One month after effectiveness PIU D. Procurement 66. All procurement activities under the AF2 shall be carried out in accordance with the World Bank procedures related to: (i) ‘Procurement in IPF, Goods, Works, Non-Consulting, and Consulting Services’, Version September 2023; (ii) ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants’, revised as of July 1, 2016; and (iii) the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement. 67. Project Procurement Strategy Document (PPSD) and Procurement Plan (PP). The Recipient updated the project’s PPSD and the PP to include the new activities under the AF2. The PP defined the appropriate procurement or consultant selection methods, the need for pre-qualification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame for each contract. The PP will be updated at least annually, or as required, to reflect the actual project implementation needs and capacity improvements. All procurement activities will be carried out in accordance with approved original or PPs. All PPs will be approved through STEP and published on the World Bank website according to the regulations. 68. Procurement assessment. The procurement assessment carried out in October 2023 revealed that the PIU staff in charge of procurement include a procurement specialist and a procurement assistant, who have relevant experience with World Bank procurement procedures. In accordance with the Recipient’s regulations, the procurement structures will be: (i) the Procurement commission (Commission de passation des Marchés) of Taazour) which will be responsible for contracts whose value is beyond the threshold determined by the government and for the execution of procurement procedures; and (ii) the Internal Procurement Commission (Commission Interne des Marchés de l’Autorité Contractante) for procurement whose value is below the threshold. 69. Following the assessment and given that the procurement of the project will be done by the PIU, the overall risk of implementation in procurement is moderate. The relevant mitigation measures are the following: (i) continue the efforts to accelerate the procurement process of all project activities; (ii) ensure the use of STEP for all planned contracts; (iii) train the team in charge of project procurement within the Taazour Agency and the internal Procurement Commission on the New Procurement Policy for World Bank Investment projects; (iv) update administrative, financial procedure and procurement manual of the project to include the new additional funding; and (v) Page 23 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) update the manual for the execution and monitoring of project activities with the new dispositions on the AF. E. Legal Operational Policies . Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 . F. Environmental and Social 70. The Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS), the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) and the Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP)50 have been revised to (i) update the information related to the project progress and activities and (ii) include the AF2 related provisions. The AF2 consists only of scaling up of existing activities already included in the initial Environmental and Social Framework assessment and therefore does not bring in additional social and environmental risks. 71. The project and the AF2 are not supporting any rehabilitation/renovation of infrastructure. There will therefore be no adverse risks and impacts from works on the environment. The screening has concluded that the Recipient does not need to prepare an environmental management plan to mitigate potential environmental impacts arising out of the project. 72. From a social perspective, the project is expected to have a positive social impact on the poorest households and refugee communities. However, the challenge of protecting and empowering refugees and improving the resilience of host populations could include social risks during the implementation such as (i) the exclusion and discrimination of certain categories of people, such as vulnerable refugees, from access to basic social services as education, health, etc.; (ii) weak communication; (iii) low integration of certain stakeholders (civil society, municipal authorities, press); (iv) labor conditions; (v) risks of SEA/SH, including gender-based violence, related to the distribution of cash within households (risk of disputes, risk of tensions...); and (vi) security risks, including transfer of cash for payments in remote areas, and risks to the project staff, communities, beneficiaries and assets, such as risks of theft, is another risk that the project faces during implementation. Host populations are also affected by difficult living conditions due to the pressure of refugees and their livestock on the natural resources of the host area (water, grazing, wood), which may lead to conflicts. As the major project activities will concern cash transfers, a social inclusion and cohesion action plan has been developed and will be implemented. The GRM established for the parent project is functional at the Tekavoul and Social registration levels and continues to process claims. Grievances are gathered through three channels: free toll numbers, field animators and SR users. 73. Regarding the risks of SEA/SH, the project is currently implementing a pilot on family dialogue to manage domestic resources. The government is putting in place measures to reduce the risks of SEA/SH to mitigate the negative social impacts related to the distribution of cash within households (risk of disputes, risk of tensions...). These mitigating measures include a training pilot for beneficiary couples aimed at a better distribution of decision-making power within the household, equity in gender roles for 50 The updated SEP was disclosed in the country on January 12, 2024 and on the World Bank external website on February 2, 2024. The negotiated ESP was discolsed in the country on march 14, 2024 and on the World Bank external website on April 2, 2024. Page 24 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) greater family harmony and a containment of domestic violence. The Family Dialogue Pilot is halfway through. A World Bank mission in Mauritania covering the Africa Innovation Gender Lab in September 2023, observed the facilitators at work, was satisfied with the progress of the pilot, and made recommendations to improve certain shortcomings, particularly concerning the mobilization of the whole community. The mission also presented the first preliminary results of the pilot's impact evaluation, based on data from the first wave. These promising results show that the first six Family Dialogue modules improve communication between spouses, increase men's participation in domestic tasks, and increase women's likelihood of working in agriculture and animal husbandry. V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 74. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a project supported by the World Bank may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance mechanisms or the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the Bank’s independent Accountability Mechanism (AM). The AM houses the Inspection Panel, which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of Bank non-compliance with its policies and procedures, and the Dispute Resolution Service, which provides communities and borrowers with the opportunity to address complaints through dispute resolution. Complaints may be submitted to the AM at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the attention of Bank Management and after Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Accountability Mechanism, please visit https://accountability.worldbank.org. Page 25 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) COMPONENTS Current Component Name Current Cost Action Proposed Component Proposed Cost (US$, (US$, millions) Name millions) Component 1: Updating and 6.30 Revised Component 1: Updating 9.10 enhancing the Social and enhancing the Registry Social Registry Component 2: Enhancing 44.90 Revised Component 2: 70.40 the socio-economic Enhancing the socio- inclusion of poor economic inclusion of households poor households Component 3: 30.40 Revised Component 3: 36.10 Strengthening the shock Strengthening the shock response system for response system for Page 26 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) households vulnerable to households vulnerable climate and other covariate to climate and other shocks covariate shocks Component 4: Project 3.40 Revised Component 4: Project 5.40 Coordination and Coordination and Management Management TOTAL 85.00 121.00 LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Ln/Cr/Tf Status Original Closing Current Proposed Proposed Deadline Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications COFN-C1950 Effective 30-Sep-2024 30-Sep-2024 30-Jun-2026 30-Oct-2026 IDA-D5680 Effective 30-Sep-2025 30-Sep-2025 30-Jun-2026 30-Oct-2026 TF-B2030 Effective 30-Sep-2024 30-Sep-2024 30-Jun-2026 30-Oct-2026 TF-B5069 Effective 30-Sep-2024 30-Sep-2024 30-Jun-2026 30-Oct-2026 Expected Disbursements (in US$) DISBURSTBL Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2020 0.00 0.00 2021 21,291,967.00 21,291,967.00 2022 18,492,916.00 39,784,883.00 2023 17,420,827.00 57,205,710.00 2024 22,794,290.00 80,000,000.00 2025 31,000,000.00 111,000,000.00 2026 10,000,000.00 121,000,000.00 2027 0.00 121,000,000.00 SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Latest ISR Rating Current Rating Political and Governance ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Page 27 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Moderate Stakeholders ⚫ Low ⚫ Low Other ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Overall ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate LEGAL COVENANTS2 LEGAL COVENANTS – Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Sections and Description Section I, A, 5, (c) : No later than one (1) month after the Effective Date, or any other later date agreed upon in writing with the Association, the Taazour General Delegation shall recruit for the Project a financial and accounting officer with terms of reference, qualifications and experience acceptable to the Association. Schedule 2, Section I, C: the Recipient shall, no later than one (1) month after the Effective Date, update the FNRCAN Cash Transfer Manual, in form and substance acceptable to the Association. Without limitation to the immediately foregoing provision, the updated FNRCAN Cash Transfer Manual shall contain detailed arrangements and procedures for: (a) eligibility criteria, detailed rules and procedures for identification, registration and selection of Eligible Beneficiaries; (b) requirements to be fulfilled by Eligible Beneficiaries as conditions for the provision of Cash Transfers under Part 3.5(b) of the Project; (c) privacy safeguards for the processing of personal data collected from Eligible Beneficiaries through the Social Registry or during Project implementation; (d) the mechanisms for verification of compliance with Cash Transfers conditions, including spot checks and external verification; (e) rules and procedures governing a redress mechanism for Cash Transfers; and (f) mechanisms for the transfer of funds from the FNRCAN to the Taazour General Delegation, the selection and contracting of Payment Service Providers and the payment mechanism to transfer the Cash Transfer amount to the Eligible Beneficiaries. Conditions Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA The Subsidiary Agreement has been signed by both parties in accordance with Section I.B.2 of Schedule 2 to this Agreement Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA The Association is satisfied that the Recipient has an adequate refugee protection framework Type Financing source Description Disbursement IBRD/IDA Recipient has entered into, or caused to be entered into, Page 28 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) a Payment Agreement in form and substance acceptable to the Association with a payment service provider selected on the basis of terms of reference, qualifications and experience acceptable to the Association for the purpose of making payments to Eligible Beneficiaries for the implementation of Cash Transfers under Part 2.1(a)(i) of the Project; Type Financing source Description Disbursement Trust Funds, The FNRCAN Arrangement has been established and is IBRD/IDA operational in accordance with the provisions of Sections I.B.1(b) and I.B.2 of Schedule 2 to this Agreement Type Financing source Description Disbursement Trust Funds, The FNRCAN Cash Transfer Manual has been updated by IBRD/IDA the CSA and the Taazour General Delegation, in form and substance acceptable to the Association in accordance with the provisions of Section I.C.1 of Schedule 2 to this Agreement Type Financing source Description Disbursement Trust Funds, the Recipient has entered into, or caused to be entered IBRD/IDA into, a Payment Agreement in form and substance acceptable to the Association with a payment service provider selected on the basis of terms of reference, qualifications and experience acceptable to the Association for the purpose of making payments to Eligible Beneficiaries for the implementation of Cash Transfers under Part 3.5(b) of the Project Type Financing source Description Effectiveness Trust Funds The Subsidiary Agreement has been executed on behalf of the Recipient and the Taazour General Delegation, in accordance with the provisions of Sections I.B.1 and 3 of Schedule 2 to this Agreement Type Financing source Description Effectiveness IBRD/IDA the SASPP TF Grant Agreement has been executed and delivered and all conditions precedent to its effectiveness or to the right of the Recipient to make withdrawals under it (other than the effectiveness of this Agreement) have been fulfilled Type Financing source Description Effectiveness Trust Funds The execution and delivery of this Agreement and the Subsidiary Agreement on behalf of the Recipient; and the execution and delivery of the Subsidiary Agreement on behalf of the Taazour General Delegation have been duly authorized or ratified by all necessary governmental Page 29 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Type Financing source Description Effectiveness Trust Funds The Financing Agreement has been executed and delivered and all conditions precedent to its effectiveness or to the right of the Recipient to make withdrawals under it (other than the effectiveness of this Agreement) have been fulfilled. Page 30 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Mauritania RESULT_NO_PDO Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing Project Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective is to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system and its coverage of poor and vulnerable households with targeted social transfers, including in refugee and host communities. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Increased efficiency of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Programs using the Social Registry to select their 7.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 15.00 beneficiaries (Number) Rationale: The end target date was revised to be in line with the new closing date of the project. In addition a definition was added since it was previously omitted. Action: This indicator has been This indicator represents 'efficiency' as the use of the registry by multiple users reduces the need from governmental and non-governmental partners to each Revised do their own data collection and develop their own databases which would represent an inefficient use of limited resources. The availability of a registry also saves time (efficiency) and improves coordination. Finally, it also contributes to better targeting. Increased coverage of poor and vulnerable hhs with targeted ST, including in refugee and host comm Beneficiaries of social safety 186,000.00 274,800.00 326,400.00 378,000.00 1,121,361.00 1,279,927.00 net programs (CRI, Number) Page 31 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rationale: The target is revised upward to account for the actual achievement in terms of beneficiaries and to account for the new refugees and shock response Action: This indicator has been beneficiaries which will be reached through the AF2. This avoids double counting of Tekavoul beneficiaries who receive regular and shock response Revised payments. This indicator also represents the new corporate score card indicator "Millions of beneficiaries of social safety net programs Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Female (CRI, 93,000.00 137,400.00 163,200.00 189,000.00 724,726.00 819,452.00 Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The target for this indicator was increased to reflect the increase in number of beneficiaries which are supported through the AF2. been Revised Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Refugees 0.00 0.00 19,500.00 19,500.00 44,370.00 71,000.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The project already surpassed its target in terms of number of refugees benefiting from the safety net programs and the AF2 will target an additional 4,500 been Revised refugee households (average household size 5.5) Beneficiaries of social safety net programs- Host 0.00 0.00 0.00 63,072.00 91,686.00 91,686.00 communities (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is This indicator was included to respond to requirements by the IDA Host and Refugee Sub-Window . The AF does not intend to target additional host New community households but will expand the number of services /activities provided to host households already benefitting from the program. Beneficiaries of social safety net programs – persons 0.00 0.00 0.00 950.00 950.00 2,000.00 with disability (Number) Page 32 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rationale: This indicator was included to respond to the new corporate requirement. Action: This indicator is According to the latest estimates only 714 households having members with disabilities are beneficiaries of the regular Tekavoul cash transfers. New Beneficiaries of social safety net programs- Youths 73,700.00 109,535.00 128,928.00 150,570.00 446,974.00 510,178.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is This indicator is added to respond to the requirements of the new corporate scorecard. It represents the disaggregation by youths. The baseline of this New indicator is starting in 2020 as it is being retrofitted for the whole project. Increased effectiveness of the nationwide adaptive social safety net system (Action: This Objective is New) Beneficiaries of the Elmaouna and Tekavoul shock programs receiving shock responsive 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 80.00 cash transfers on time (Percentage) Rationale: The effectiveness of shock-responsive cash-transfers largely depends on their timeliness. When transfers are provided on time, a large literature documents Action: This indicator is New that they are effective in helping households smooth consumption before, during, and after a shock hits and reducing the use of negative coping strategy. It is therefore a good proxy for outcomes that are more difficult to measure. SSN programs' beneficiary households avoiding negative coping strategies N/A N/A 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.70 (national/refugees) (Text) Action: This indicator has been Rationale: Marked for Deletion This indicator was not measured and within the activities planned for the project it was difficult to have an adequate measurement of it. Page 33 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Component 1: Updating and enhancing the Social Registry Households with complete information in Social Registry 150,000.00 180,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The target and definition of this indicator were updated. Households with complete information in the Social 0.00 4,000.00 7,500.00 7,500.00 18,141.00 22,000.00 Registry - Refugee (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has This indicator was revised to account for the already achieved target and the scale up of the registry and to update its definition in line with the more explicit been Revised definition provided from the parent indicator. Households with updated information in the Social registry (less than 3 years) 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 90.00 (Percentage) Page 34 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rationale: Action: This indicator has A definition was added for this indicator as one was previously omitted. been Revised Cases from the Social Registry grievance redress mechanism 70.00 70.00 75.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 addressed in a timely manner (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been The end target date of this indicator was revised to be in line with the new proposed closing date of the project. In addition the naming of this indicator was revised from 'resolved' to 'addressed' to be in line with corporate requirements and best practice. In addition a definition was added in line with the Revised operations manual as one was previously omitted. Spot-check surveys carried-out and disclosed publicly 0.00 6.00 12.00 18.00 24.00 30.00 (Number) Rationale: The end target date of this indicator was revised to be in line with the new proposed closing date of the project. In addition this indicator target will not be Action: This indicator has been adjusted or increased as it had already faced delays and it is not expected that it will exceed this target. The name of the indicator was also revised to Revised account for the fact that the social registry does not have to be the one to do the spotcheck but those undertaken by the external firm also count toward this indicator Community members reporting positive feedback on household registration 0.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 outcome for the Social Registry (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been The end target date of this indicator was revised to be in line with the new proposed closing date of the project. In addition, a definition was added for this Revised indicator since it was previously omitted. Page 35 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Component 2: Enhancing the socio-economic inclusion of poor households Households benefiting from the national safety net 31,000.00 35,000.00 40,000.00 45,000.00 54,681.00 59,681.00 program Tekavoul (Number) Rationale: The Parent Project has surpassed its target number of households to be supported through Tekavoul. The target revision takes into account this achievement Action: This indicator has been in addition to the scale up to new refugee households. Revised In addition, a definition was added as one was previously omitted. Households benefiting from the national safety net program Tekavoul - 0.00 4,000.00 9,000.00 14,000.00 17,458.00 22,548.00 Refugees and hosts (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The Parent Project surpassed its target in terms of number of hosts and refugees. The AF2 will add 6000 refugee households to the Tekavoul program. been Revised In addition, a definition was added as it was previously omitted. Beneficiaries receiving payments on time 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The indicator name was slightly rephrase (removing the word 'share') and a definition was included for this indicator as one was previously omitted. been Revised Cases from the Tekavoul grievance redress mechanism 70.00 70.00 75.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 addressed in a timely manner (Percentage) Page 36 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been The end target date of this indicator was revised to be in line with the new proposed closing date of the project. In addition the naming of this indicator was Revised revised from 'resolved' to 'addressed' to be in line with corporate requirements and best practice. Pilot activity to enhance civil registration among vulnerable No No Yes Yes Yes Yes population (Yes/No) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised A definition was added to this indicator as one was previously omitted. Beneficiaries who participate in pre-creation training (Number) 3,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5,000.00 11,000.00 Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries who participate in pre-creation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,000.00 8,800.00 training- Female (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries who participate in pre-creation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,000.00 2,500.00 training- Refugees (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries who participate in pre-creation 0.00 1,000.00 2,500.00 training- Host communities (Number) Page 37 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries receiving the start-up grant and post- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5,000.00 10,500.00 creation coaching (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries receiving the start-up grant and post- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,000.00 8,400.00 creation coaching- Female (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is This indicator ensures the monitoring of the number of women benefitting from the IGA support to start or expand their business. This indicator also serves New for gender tagging Beneficiaries receiving the start-up grant and post- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 800.00 2,300.00 creation coaching- Refugees (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries receiving the start-up grant and post- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 800.00 2,300.00 creation coaching- Host communities (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries who started or expanded their economic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6,000.00 8,800.00 activity following reception of the grant and training. Page 38 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries who started or expanded their economic activity following reception 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5,000.00 7,400.00 of the grant and training- Female (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is This indicator ensures the monitoring of the number of women who are able to start of expand their business as a result of the support received from the New project. This indicator also serves for gender tagging. Beneficiaries who started or expanded their economic activity following reception 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,000.00 2,100.00 of the grant and training- Refugees (Number) Action: This indicator is New Beneficiaries who started or expanded their economic activity following reception 0.00 1,000.00 2,100.00 of the grant and training- Host communities (Number) Action: This indicator is New Millions of displaced people and people in host communities provided with 0.00 0.00 107,250.00 107,250.00 130,000.00 159,400.00 services and livelihoods Page 39 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is New This indicator is part of the new corporate scorecard requirements and hence was added to this project. 3. Strengthening the shock responsive system for HH vulnerable to climate and other covariate shocks Households benefiting from shock-responsive safety net 0.00 106,000.00 118,000.00 130,000.00 176,275.00 186,275.00 programs supported by the project (cumulative) (Number) Rationale: The AF2 will target an additional 15,000 households through its shock response. However, some of these households would have already been previously Action: This indicator has been Revised targeted or be Tekavoul households. As such, to avoid double counting, the AF2 estimates that 10,000 (some of which will be in response to floods) out of 15,000 will be new households. These will be added to the already achieved number which surpasses the previous target. Households benefiting from shock-responsive safety net programs supported by the 0.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 17,423.00 20,000.00 project (cumulative) - Refugees and hosts (Number) Rationale: The AF2 will target an additional 2,222 refugee and host households with shock response cash transfers. The increased target takes into account the already Action: This indicator has reached households. been Revised Also added a definition as one was previously missing Households supported by the COVID-19 safety net 0.00 70,000.00 70,000.00 70,000.00 70,000.00 70,000.00 intervention (Number) Page 40 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Households benefiting from shock-responsive safety net programs supported by the 500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 project (cumulative) – Flood response (Number) Action: This indicator is New Millions of people with enhanced resilience to 0.00 636,000.00 708,000.00 780,000.00 1,056,000.00 1,117,650.00 climate risks (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator is This indicator was added to represent the new corporate indicator scorecard. The baseline for this indicator is starting in 2020 as this indicator is being New retrofitted . Early warning system improved with the support of the project No No Yes Yes Yes Yes (Yes/No) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been The end target date for this indicator was extended to be in line with the new proposed project closing date. Revised In addition a definition was added for this indicator as one was previously omitted The common financial vehicle has been established (Yes/No) No No Yes Yes Yes Yes IO Table SPACE Page 41 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Government and non- government programs Project Social Registry Programs using the Social Registry to using the social registry to Semester Semester Supervision Directorate select their beneficiaries target and select report beneficiaries for their activities. Request based on the programs MIS - assumptions : (i) 6 individuals per household and (ii) 70% Monitoring and Semester Programs MIS Beneficiaries of social safety net programs of Elmaouna evaluation team beneficiaries are also benefitting from Tekavoul and should not be counted twice. Request based on the Monitoring and Beneficiaries of social safety net Semester Programs MIS programs MIS evaluation team programs - Female The number of individuals in refugee households (in and outside of the camp) Request based on the Monitoring and Beneficiaries of social safety net benefitting from the safety Semester Programs MIS programs MIS evaluation team programs - Refugees net program (be it the regular Tekavoul program or the shock response programs Elmaouna or Page 42 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Tekavoul shock). This indicator also avoids double counting of households benefitting from various sources of support (for example both regular Tekavoul and Elmaouna), or those receiving shock response support over multiple years. The number of individuals in host community households (in the Hodh el Chargui region) benefitting from the safety net program (be it the regular Tekavoul program or the shock response programs Elmaouna or Tekavoul Monitoring and Beneficiaries of social safety net Semester Program MIS Program MIS shock). This indicator also Evaluation project team programs- Host communities avoids double counting of households benefitting from various sources of support (for example both regular Tekavoul and Elmaouna), or those receiving shock response support over multiple years. Beneficiaries of social safety net This indicator will measure Semester Program MIS MIS Monitoring and programs – persons with disability the number of people with Evaluation team Page 43 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) disabilities in households benefitting from regular and shock response cash transfers. The number of youths aged 15-30 that are in Monitoring and Beneficiaries of social safety net households benefitting Semester Program MIS Program MIS Evaluation team of the programs- Youths from the regular or shock project responsive safety net program. This indicator measures the share of shock response Beneficiaries of the Elmaouna and payments done Tekavoul Monitoring and Semester MIS Program MIS Tekavoul shock programs receiving shock shock or Elmaouna on time evaluation responsive cash transfers on time (i.e. by October 15 of each year for the lean season) , or within a month of floods Elmaouna annual SSN programs' beneficiary households capitalization Annually Household survey Food Security Office avoiding negative coping strategies report (national/refugees) Spot checks reports ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Households with complete information in Number of households Semester Social Registry Specific IT request on Social Registry Social Registry included and retained in Database the Social Registry Directorate Page 44 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) the registry after the Database census and data collection process and which have completed information. This includes households in the first generation of the registry unless they have been exited during the update process , as well as newly included households following the update. It does not include all households in the census. Number of refugee households (in and outside the Mbera camp) included and retained in the registry after the census and data collection process and which have completed Households with complete information. This includes Social Registry Specific request on the Social Registry Semester information in the Social Registry - households in the first MIS Social Registry database Directorate Refugee generation of the registry unless they have been exited during the update process , as well as newly included households following the update. It does not include all households in the census. Households with updated information Households with complete Semester Social Registry Request on the Social Social Registry in the Social registry (less than 3 information included in the MIS Registry database Directorate Page 45 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) years) social registry whose data is three years or less old relative to the total number of households included in the social registry. Please refer to indicator on 'households with complete information in the Social Registry' for a definition of what constitutes 'included'. Percentage of complaints, requests for information, or calls received by the Cases from the Social Registry grievance Social Registry Social Registry Social Registry that have Semester MIS extraction redress mechanism addressed in a timely MIS Directorate been addressed within 60 manner days. This indicator also accounts for the citizen engagement tag. Spotcheck surveys undertaken following a Project cash distribution or a Social Registry Spot-check surveys carried-out and Semester semester Supervision registry activity either by Directorate disclosed publicly resports the SR or an external firm and is published on the website. Percentage of individuals Quaterly answering "yes, I fully External cabinet and Community members reporting positive Community Average of the two last agree" or "yes, I rather Semester Social Registry feedback on household registration Spot-check spot checks agree" to the question "do directorate outcome for the Social Registry surveys you agree that the households included in the Page 46 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) social Registry are the poorest of your community ?" during spot-checks. The number of households supported by the regular tekavoul program and financed by the project (does not include Request based on the Households benefiting from the national Semester Tekavoul MIS Tekavoul coordination households funded by the program’s MIS safety net program Tekavoul government's own budget). Households should have received at least one Tekavoul payment to be considered. The number of refugee households (in and outside camp) and host community households (households in Hodh el Chargui) supported by the regular tekavoul Households benefiting from the Request based on the program and financed by Semester Tekavoul MIS Tekavoul coordination national safety net program Tekavoul program's MIS the project (does not - Refugees and hosts include households funded by the government's own budget). Households should have received at least one Tekavoul payment to be considered. The number of payments Request based on the IT and monitoring and Beneficiaries receiving payments on done on time (received by Semester Tekavoul MIS program’s MIS evaluation team time beneficiary) relative to the total number of payments Page 47 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) done. On time payments are considered those which are completed at the latest two weeks after the end of a quarter. Percentage of complaints, requests for information or other calls, received by Cases from the Tekavoul grievance Tekavoul that have been Request based on the IT and monitoring and Semester Tekavoul MIS redress mechanism addressed in a timely resolved within program’s MIS evaluation team manner 45 days as per the operations manual. This indicator also accounts for the citizen engagement tag Project Pilot activity to enhance civil registration Semester Supervision Tekavoul coordination reports among vulnerable population This indicator will help monitor progress on the implementation of economic inclusion training. Specifically it will monitor progress on the number of beneficiaries Monitoring and Beneficiaries who participate in pre- Semester Program MIS MIS who receive the first part Evaluation team creation training of the economic inclusion training called ‘pre- creation’, i.e. training that helps them in the development of their income generating activity and entrepreneurship skills Page 48 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) This indicator will help monitor progress on the implementation of economic inclusion training. Specifically it will monitor progress on the number of female Monitoring and Beneficiaries who participate in pre- Semester Program MIS MIS beneficiaries who receive evaluation team creation training- Female the first part of the economic inclusion training called ‘pre-creation’, i.e. training that helps them in the development of their income generating activity and entrepreneurship skills This indicator will help monitor progress on the implementation of economic inclusion training. Specifically it will monitor progress on the number of beneficiaries Monitoring and Beneficiaries who participate in pre- Semester Project MIS Project MIS who receive the first part evaluation team creation training- Refugees of the economic inclusion training called ‘pre- creation’, i.e. training that helps them in the development of their income generating activity and entrepreneurship skills Beneficiaries who participate in pre- This indicator will help Semester Project MIS Project MIS Monitoring and creation training- Host communities monitor progress on the evaluation team and Page 49 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) implementation of field animators economic inclusion training. Specifically it will monitor progress on the number of beneficiaries who receive the first part of the economic inclusion training called ‘pre- creation’, i.e. training that helps them in the development of their income generating activity and entrepreneurship skills This indicator will monitor how many households, of those which received the pre-creation training, also Monitoring and Beneficiaries receiving the start-up grant Semester Program MIS MIS received the start-up grant Evaluation and post-creation coaching and are supported through post creation coaching to help them implement and develop their concept. This indicator which will help monitor how many households, of those which received the pre-creation Beneficiaries receiving the start-up Monitoring and training, also received the Semester Program MIS MIS grant and post-creation coaching- Evaluation team start-up grant and are Female supported through post creation coaching to help them implement and develop their concept. This Page 50 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) indicator also serves for gender tagging This indicator will monitor how many households, of those which received the Monitoring and Beneficiaries receiving the start-up pre-creation training, also Semester Project MIS Project MIS evaluation team and grant and post-creation coaching- received the start-up grant field animators Refugees and are supported through post creation coaching to help them implement and develop their concept. This indicator will monitor how many households, of those which received the Monitoring and Beneficiaries receiving the start-up pre-creation training, also Semester Project MIS Project MIS evaluation team and grant and post-creation coaching- received the start-up grant field animators Host communities and are supported through post creation coaching to help them implement and develop their concept. This indicator will monitor the number of beneficiaries who managed to start or expand their economic activity following the Beneficiaries who started or expanded Monitoring and reception of the grant. Not Semester Program MIS MIS their economic activity following evaluation team all beneficiaries who reception of the grant and training. receive the grant will start or expand their activities, particularly within the timeline of the project completion as many will Page 51 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) receive the training and grant toward end of program life. This indicator monitors the number of female beneficiaries who expand or start a new economic activity following reception of the grant and training. Beneficiaries who started or Not all female beneficiaries Monitoring and expanded their economic activity Semester Program MIS MIS will expand or start their Evaluation team following reception of the grant and economic activity during training- Female the lifetime of the project since some beneficiaries will receive training and grant toward end of project life. This indicator also serves for gender tagging. This indicator will monitor the number of beneficiaries who managed to start or expand their economic activity following the Beneficiaries who started or reception of the grant. Not Spotcheck and field Monitoring and expanded their economic activity all beneficiaries who Semester Project MIS animators evaluation team following reception of the grant and receive the grant will start training- Refugees or expand their activities, particularly within the timeline of the project completion as many will receive the training and grant toward end of Page 52 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) program life. This indicator will monitor the number of beneficiaries who managed to start or expand their economic activity following the reception of the grant. Not Beneficiaries who started or all beneficiaries who Spotcheck and field Monitoring and expanded their economic activity Semester Project MIS receive the grant will start animators Evaluation team following reception of the grant and or expand their activities, training- Host communities particularly within the timeline of the project completion as many will receive the training and grant toward end of program life. The number of refugees, internally displaced persons, and people in host communities reached with services, jobs, or cash transfers. This may include Millions of displaced people and people in asylum seekers or others in Monitoring and Semester Program MIS Program MIS host communities provided with services need of international Evaluation project team and livelihoods protection. This indicator includes delivery of services such as improved access and quality of social services, financial services, infrastructure, agribusiness, health, Page 53 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) education, trade, and entrepreneurship development Households benefiting from shock-responsive safety net programs supported by the project (cumulative), including the COVID-19 safety net intervention. As a convention for this Programs MIS Households benefiting from shock- indicator, a household Monitoring and Semester and semester MIS responsive safety net programs supported receiving the shock evaluation team reports by the project (cumulative) responsive support at two different times (for example 1 time from the Covid-19 response and 1 time from a lean season response) will be counted once to avoid double counting. This indicator also serves for climate tag. Refugee households (in and outside the camp) and host community households Households benefiting from shock- (those in Hodh el Chargui) Programs MIS Request based on the Monitoring and responsive safety net programs benefiting from shock- Semester and semester program's MIS and evaluation team supported by the project (cumulative) responsive safety net reports supervision - Refugees and hosts programs supported by the project (cumulative), including the COVID-19 safety net intervention. As Page 54 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) a convention for this indicator, a household receiving the shock responsive support at two different times (for example 1 time from the Covid-19 response and 1 time from a lean season response) will be counted once to avoid double counting. Punctual (once the Taazour Mana Number of Households COVID-19 gement General Delegation Households supported by the COVID- supported by the COVID-19 interventio Information Taazour 19 safety net intervention safety net intervention n is System financed by the project completed) This is a new indicator since the project will Households benefiting from shock- expand its activities to new Monitoring and responsive safety net programs Semester Program MIS MIS shocks. A pilot was Evaluation Team supported by the project (cumulative) undertaken in the parent – Flood response project which covered 500 households. Number of individuals in households supported by Monitoring and the shock response Millions of people with enhanced Semester Program MIS Program MIS Evaluation team of the program (Tekavoul shock resilience to climate risks project or Elmaouna) avoiding double counting. Average household size estimated Page 55 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) at 6. The EWS will be considered as improved if at least two of the following criteria have been met: (i) better Project Early warning system improved with the Semester Supervision Food Security Office disaggregation of reports support of the project information, (ii) more timely and accurate forecasts (iii) better information dissemination A yes will mean that the common financial vehicle is Project established by the reports The common financial vehicle has been Semester Supervision Project Coordination government and has an and operation established operational manual which al manual describes the rules to disburse. ME IO Table SPACE Page 56 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Page 57 of 59 The World Bank Social Safety Net System Project II second Additional Financing (P181523) Annex 1: Updated Theory of change Page 58 of 59