The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) REPORT NO.: RES59688 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF EQUITY WITH QUALITY AND LEARNING AT SECONDARY (EQUALS) APPROVED ON MARCH 13, 2019 TO MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS EDUCATION EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Nathan M. Belete Regional Director: Daniel Dulitzky Practice Manager/Manager: Muna Salih Meky Task Team Leader(s): Adama Ouedraogo The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component CDSS Community Day Secondary Schools GoM Government of Malawi IDA International Development Association ISR Implementation Status Report MGDS Malawi Growth and Development Strategy MSCE Malawi School Certificate of Education MTR Mid-Term Review PAD Project Appraisal Document PBC Performance-Based Condition PDO Project Development Objective PISA Programme for International Student Assessment RF Results Framework RP Restructuring Paper SRGBV School Related Gender-Based Violence The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P164223 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 13-Mar-2019 31-Dec-2025 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve quality of science and mathematics instruction in Community Day Secondary Schools (CDSSs) and increase access to secondary education in selected remote areas. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-D8710 29-Jun-2021 19-Jul-2021 14-Oct-2021 31-Dec-2025 5.00 4.77 0 IDA-63790 13-Mar-2019 25-Jul-2019 24-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2025 90.00 57.13 30.21 The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Introduction 1. This restructuring paper seeks approval of a proposed Level II Restructuring of the Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary in Malawi Project (P164223). The proposed restructuring will revise the Results Framework (RF) to include reformulation and redefinition of indicators, Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs), baseline and target values of select indicators and PBCs. 2. The project, financed by an International Development Association (IDA) loan of US$90 million was approved on March 13, 2019, and declared effective on October 24, 2019; and an Additional Financing (AF) consisting of a US$5 million Grant approved on July 19, 2021. The project supports the Government of Malawi (GoM) to improve quality of science and mathematics instruction in Community Day Secondary Schools (CDSSs) and increase access to secondary education in selected remote areas. The project supports secondary education reforms, which are key to the overall achievement of the Government’s vision of improving transition from primary to secondary, and from secondary to tertiary, as articulated in the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS III). 3. The project comprises four components, including a Contingent Emergency Response (CERC), and a proportion of disbursements employs a results-based approach using PBCs. Component 1 focuses on improving the quality of science and mathematics instruction (total after AF: US$30.14 million;) and seeks to provide the minimum standards for effective instruction of sciences and mathematics to all CDSSs; develop and implement student learning enhancing strategies; and strengthen the secondary education system to support learning. Component 2 seeks to enhance equitable access to secondary education (total after AF: US$53.88 million;) by supporting the Government to institute a sustainable 10-year secondary education expansion plan grounded on equity and efficiency enhancing policy reforms; revival of school health and hygiene promotion along with school related gender-based violence (SRGBV) mitigation measures; and optimal use of existing school spaces in the selected 13 remote districts. Component 3 supports project coordination, learning, monitoring and evaluation (total after AF: US$10.98 million). Funding of this component follows the traditional input-based project funding approach to facilitate project operations. Key intervention areas in this respect include a) capacity enhancement for implementation support; b) strengthening data collection and information systems, and utilization processes at various end-user points for effective policy dialogue; c) project monitoring and evaluation systems development, data collection and reporting; and d) third-party verification activities for the respective PBCs. B. Project Status 4. The project is rated Moderately Satisfactory for both progress towards the achievement of the project development objective (PDO) and overall implementation progress. As of January 15, 2024, US$ 58.97 million (64 percent) of the US$95.0 million has been disbursed. The ratings for Financial Management, Monitoring and Evaluation, and Project The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Management are Satisfactory, while Procurement and Safeguards are Moderately Satisfactory. The overall risk rating has remained Substantial throughout the life of the project. 5. Progress towards achieving the PDO and the implementation progress have been maintained as Moderately Satisfactory (MS) reflecting mainly delays in the construction component, and in the finalization of key policy reforms and issues that have been identified with key indicators in the RF that are making it difficult to measure full achievement of the PDO. 6. The project has three PDO indicators, with only one on track to be achieved by the end of the project. a. PDO 1: Percentage of Community Day Secondary Schools (CDSS) meeting minimum standards for quality science and mathematics instruction is lagging behind target, with only 5.5 percent of CDSSs meeting the minimum standards against a mid-term target of 20 percent. This underperformance is attributed to the definition of the indicator requiring that schools meet multiple criteria from the national education standards at the same time, which has been challenging for CDSSs. b. PDO 2: Learning achievement in standardized assessment in science and mathematics. This indicator became untraceable soon after project effectiveness when the Government realized that it was not practical to carry out more than one round of Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) in the project lifecycle. c. PDO 3: Primary to secondary transition rate in the 13 remote districts. The end-of-project target is on course to be achieved, with an uptrend reaching 35.6 percent against an end target of 48 percent. Of the 17 intermediate results indicators (IRIs), 8 have either surpassed the annual targets or met the end-of project targets. The remaining 9 IRIs are experiencing delays in their measurement owing to late start of foundational activities. C. Rationale for Restructuring 7. A request for restructuring was received through a letter dated December 7, 2023. This restructuring paper recommends level II restructuring to adjust the indicators in the RF and streamline activities and PBCs to improve implementation speed. Specifically, it proposes to: (i) adjust the indicators and targets in the RF by clarifying the definition, the baselines, and targets to ensure completion of agreed activities to achieve the PDO, taking into account the implementation affected by the poly-crisis including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tropical Storm Ana, and Cyclones Gombe and Freddy, the Cholera Epidemic and the country macroeconomic instability that worsened the global supply chain challenges; and (ii) review the reformulation of the PBC 3, PBC 4 and PBC 5 to align with the definition, baselines and targets appraised and confirmed during the mid-term review (MTR) mission. The detailed rationale for these changes is provided together with the description of the proposed changes in the section below. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 8. The following modifications are proposed for the restructuring. 9. PDO 1: % of CDSS meeting minimum standards for quality science and mathematics instruction. The restructuring aims to maintain the five criteria drawn from the National Education Standards (NES) and apply the two-step analysis i.e., compute the school average for the teacher observation criteria before combining with the school level criteria. For a school to qualify, it has to meet at least four of the five criteria. The restructuring further proposes to adopt the The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) baseline of 36.3 percent computed using the new methodology and based on the data collected in 2021. The end of project target of 40 percent increase from baseline is to be maintained. This implies that the end of project target would be 50 percent of CDSS meeting minimum standards for quality science and mathematics instruction. 10. PDO 2: Average MSCE pass-rate in Sciences and Mathematics. In light of the difficulties faced by the Government in joining and participating in PISA, i.e., the three years needed for preparation before a country can participate in a scheduled assessment, the Government and IDA agreed early on in implementation of the project to track an alternate indicator. A technical consideration was made early in the project to track learning using the average of Malawi School Certificate of Education (MSCE) pass rate in Sciences and Mathematics, which has shown impressive progress against the set targets. Based on reported results, the average of MSCE pass rate in Sciences and Mathematics in 2021/22 (65.5 percent) has already surpassed the end of project target (60 percent) with the likelihood that performance will get even better as the implementation of some activities prone to improve students’ learning process progress. This paper proposes to formally adopt the ‘Average of Malawi School Certificate of Education (MSCE) pass rate in Sciences and Mathematics’ in place of ‘Learning achievement in standardized assessment in science and mathematics.’ 11. IRI1: Number of interactive Science and Mathematics modules available for use by students. The restructuring aims to adopt the changes highlighted in the table below, emphasizing the use of units of the interactive workbooks instead of modules. The paper also emphasizes the use of number as unit of measure rather than percentage since the number of units are clear as distributed in the table below. Indicator Name Year 1 Target Year 2 Target Year 3 Target Year 4 Target Year 5 Target Year 6 Target Original Develop 100% Develop 100% Develop 100% of the of the of the Define the prescribed prescribed prescribed number of Develop 100% Number of Mathematics Mathematics Mathematics Develop 100% modules for of the interactive Science modules for modules for modules for of modules in each subject; prescribed and Mathematics Form 2 and Form 3 and Form 4 and the selected Procure TA to Mathematics modules available for 100% of 100% of 100% of science subject support modules for use by students modules in a modules in the modules in the for Form 4 development of Form 1 selected science selected science selected science modules subject for Form subject for Form subject for Form 1 2 3 Proposed Define the Develop at least Develop at least Develop at least number of units 8 Biology units Number of 8 Mathematics 8 Chemistry for each subject Develop at least for senior Develop at least interactive Science units for senior units for senior (at least 8); 8 Mathematics secondary and 8 Physics units and Mathematics secondary and secondary and Procure TA to units for junior at least 8 for senior units available for at least 8 at least 8 support secondary Chemistry units secondary use by students Biology units for Physics units for development of for junior junior secondary junior secondary units secondary The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) 12. IRI6: % of CDSSs in 13 remote districts with functional GBV redressal and adolescent hygiene support system. The restructuring aims to revise the parameters originally designed for computing this indicator. Specifically, the proposed change consists of dropping one parameter that is outside the control of the schools, i.e., whether health facilities provide nutritional support to vulnerable learners. In adopting the revised thirteen (13) parameters, the restructuring proposes to adopt the baseline computed using these parameters, applied to the data collected in 2021 (36.3 percent). Based on the collective effort put in place, the restructuring proposes to maintain the end of project target of 90 percent. 13. PBC3: Complementary streams for delivery of secondary education established (US$11,050,000). The proposed change consists of revising the target of additional students to the complementary streams from 30,000 down to 11,250 i.e., 3,750 additional students as the first target after the approval of the expansion plan built on policies and strategies, and 7,500 additional students as the second target. This initiative required a number of policy reforms to be developed during the first two years of implementation as prerequisites for achieving scalable results. Due to the delay in achieving the prerequisite outputs, only two years remain to achieve scalable results that were initially planned to be accumulated over a period of 4 years. This situation has rendered the scalable targets unattainable. In addition to the revised target, the disbursement protocol of the PBC is proposed to be revised to reward US$3,550,000 for the attainment of first target and US$3,500,000 for the attainment of second target. A total of US$11,050,000 is attached to the full achievement of this PBC. The PBC will remain scalable. 14. PBC4: % of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 45-55 in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts (US$10,900,000). The most recent Annual Schools Census data (2022) shows that 23 percent of public secondary schools in the 13 high impact districts have class sizes lower than 45 in Form 1, while 52 percent had class sizes bigger than 55. Moreover, the Malawi National Education Sector Investment Plan (2020-2030) has 60 students as the desired optimal class size in secondary schools. Considering these, the restructuring proposes to revise the range of class size measured in the project from 45-55 to 40-60. The indicator would therefore be ‘% of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 40-60 in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts.’ In addition, the end-line target of 90 percent is unlikely to be met. In 2019, only 43 percent of the public secondary schools in the 13 selected districts were conforming to the class size range of 40-60. About 9 percent had less than 40 students in a single classroom while 48 percent had more than 60 students. PBC4 assumes that public schools will conform to the recommended class size once e-selection and placement is implemented at school level. However, the reality is that there are many factors that affect class size. The schools that have class sizes lower than 40 students may be lacking in so many aspects that make students unwilling to attend. These aspects could include inadequate teachers, inadequate learning materials, long distances, poor hygiene, etc. For such schools, it will take a lot more than just the selection and placement systems to improve the situation. Similarly, schools with more than 60 students would require a lot of investment in terms of classroom space. Additional classroom spaces would, in turn, require additional teachers and learning materials. All these are issues that cannot be implemented in a short period. They require concerted efforts, additional resources, and a longer period. It is, therefore, unrealistic to expect that the project would change the 2019 status by 47 percentage points within 6 years and through the implementation of an e-selection and placement system. The proposed end of project target of 50 percent would comply with the implementation timeline and mobilized resources. The proposed disbursement criteria for the scalable part of the PBC is as follows: # Disbursement Disbursement Criteria/ Disbursement Disbursement Comments Linked Results Achievement Level Level as Amount (US$) Percentage of Eligible Resources The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) % of public Disbursements each year secondary schools 43 to 45% 29% 2,828,572 to be based on the conforming to class achievement level minus DLR 4.2–4.6 size range of 40-60 the cumulative students in Form 1 45 to 50% 100% 9,900,000 disbursements of previous in the 13 selected years for DLIs 4.2 - 4.6 districts. 15. PBC5: Number of schools expanded or upgraded based on agreed minimum infrastructure package (US$29,496,000). All the funds attached to non-scalable results were disbursed following the attainment of the targets. The non-scalable results included: 1) 100% compliance to civil works procurement procedures that enhance value for money (US$1,000,000); 2) Environmental and social management plans for each site cleared (US$1,800,000); 3) 100% contracts signed (US$5,076,000); and 4) Civil works commenced at 90% of the sites (US$5,000,000). However, the scalable conditions have proved to be unrealistic. The first condition to trigger disbursement requires that the Ministry, through Contractors, finish the full scope of works on at least 60 of the 103 sites in order to claim funds. The reality on the ground is that none of the contractors have managed to finish and handover a single site despite working for the entire 10 months contract period. Therefore, the Disbursement Criteria have been adjusted to the realistic performance on ground and to align the reimbursement protocol with the scalability nature of the indicator. The proposed Disbursement Criteria for the remaining scalable PBCs 5.3-5.4 and 5.5-5.6 is as below: Disbursement Disbursement Criteria/ level as Disbursement Achievement percentage of Disbursement Linked Result Level eligible resources Amount (USD) Comments 30-50% 50% 7,308,000 Disbursements each year to be based on the achievement level PBC 5.3-5.4: % of 50-80% 90% 13,154,400 minus the cumulative target schools disbursements of previous years expanded/upgraded. 80-100% 100% 14,616,000 for DLIs 5.3 - 5.4 Disbursements each year to be PBC 5.5-5.6: % of 50-75% 70% 1,400,000 based on the achievement level expanded/upgraded minus the cumulative schools adequately disbursements of previous years maintained. 75% or more 100% 2,000,000 for DLI 5.5 and 5.6 16. Adjustments to the project’s Results Framework. Table 1 presents the rationale for the proposed changes to the PDO and intermediate results indicators, and the proposed changes to the baseline and target values. The revisions include clarification of the indicators to link them more directly to the PDO following a review of the RF and confirmation of indicators with the GoM during the MTR mission in May 2023. The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Table 1: Summary of Proposed Changes to the Results Framework Proposed Change No Indicator Rationale for Change PDO Results Indicators PDO1 % of CDSS meeting Change the number of Initially, a CDSS was deemed to be ‘meeting the minimum standards for criteria to be met for a minimum standards for quality science and quality science and school to be considered mathematics instruction’ if they complied to all mathematics meeting minimum the five criteria. Evidence from schools shows instruction standards from 5 to 4 that the intersection of these five criteria was uncommon. Baseline value revised to The new proposed baseline reflects the new 36.3 percent computation formula applied to data collected in 2021. Target value revised to 50 The new target was calculated to align with the percent reality of implementation progress. The proposed change consists of adjusting the PBC Verification Protocol to align with the reality of implementation progress on the ground PDO2 Learning achievement Replace with ‘Average of The government was not able to join PISA as in standardized Malawi School Certificate of originally envisaged. Moreover, joining PISA assessment in science Education (MSCE) pass rate would have given the Project at most two data and mathematics in Sciences and points (extremely ambitious), which would have Mathematics ‘ not measured the progressive improvements in the system. Intermediate Results Indicators IRI1 Number of interactive Change in use of units in The change is motivated by the need to have Science and the place of modules in the clarity in what is being measured. The outputs Mathematics modules case of interactive from MIE are measured in units rather than available for use by workbooks. modules. students Change in the unit of Since the number of units is clear, there is no measure of the interactive need to present the result as percentage. workbooks from percentage to number Change in the targets of This is to align the unit of measure with target units of interactive work from 100 percent to 64 units IRI6 % of CDSSs in 13 Revise the number of One of the parameters (whether health facilities remote districts with parameters schools are to provide nutritional support to vulnerable functional GBV be appraised on to 13. students) is deemed to be outside the control of redressal and a school adolescent hygiene Revise the threshold for a Based on available data, meeting all the 13 support system school to be considered to parameters was found to be a tall order for have a functional GBV schools. The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Proposed Change No Indicator Rationale for Change redressal and adolescent hygiene support system to 8 out of 13 Revise the baseline to 36.3 The new baseline reflects the adopted percent computation PBC3 Complementary Revise the target of The revision is motivated by the likelihood of the streams for delivery of additional students to the Project to achieve the original target, which secondary education alternative pathways from seems highly unlikely. established 30,000 to 11,250 Revise the amounts The new amounts are redistributed to the associated with PBC 3.3 and revised target of additional students. 3.4 to US$3,550,000 and US$3,500,000 respectively. PBC4 % of public secondary Revise the range of class To align with the standards defined in NESIP of schools conforming to sizes to 40-60 60 students per classroom. class size range of 45-55 Revise the end of project The revision is motivated by the unlikeliness of in Form 1 in the 13 target from 90 percent to the Project to achieve the original target selected districts 50 percent PBC5 Number of schools Adopt the scalability of the To align the reimbursement protocol with the expanded or upgraded PBC as outlined in the Table scalable nature of the indicator. based on agreed above in para15. minimum infrastructure package III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ PBCs ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) . The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) . Results framework COUNTRY: Malawi Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) Project Development Objectives(s) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve quality of science and mathematics instruction in Community Day Secondary Schools (CDSSs) and increase access to secondary education in selected remote areas. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Improve the quality of mathematics and science instruction. Percent of CDSS meeting selected minimum standards for quality 36.30 percent 40 percent 45 percent 48 percent 50 percent science and mathematics instruction (Text) Rationale: Initially, a CDSS was deemed to be ‘meeting the minimum standards for quality science and mathematics instruction’ if they complied to all the five criteria. Evidence from schools shows that the intersection of these five criteria was uncommon. It has been agreed to maintain the five criteria drawn from the National Education Standards (NES) and apply the two-step analysis i.e., compute the school average for the teacher observation criteria before combining with the school level criteria. However, the final computation methodology is too stringent such that it has proved to be very difficult for the Ministry to achieve the set Action: This indicator has mid-term target (achievement of 5.5% against a 3rd year target of 20%) and similar results are likely to occur at the end of the project. Therefore, it has been been Revised agreed that the threshold for meeting the minimum standards be reduced to 80%, meaning that for a school to qualify, it has to meet at least four of the five criteria. It has been further being agreed that a new baseline be computed using the available 2021 inspection data and that the project’s end-line target remains at 40% increase from the recalculated baseline. Baseline value revised to 36.3 percent; end target value maintains at 40 percent increase from baseline. This implies that the end of project target would be 50 percent of CDSS meeting minimum standards for quality science and mathematics instruction The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Average of Malawi School Certificate of Education (MSCE) pass rate in Sciences 52.30 54.00 56.00 58.00 59.00 60.00 60.00 and Mathematics (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The government was not able to join PISA as originally envisaged. Moreover, joining PISA would have given the Project at most two data points (extremely been Revised ambitious), which would have not measured the progressive improvements in the system. Increase access to secondary education in selected remote districts Primary to secondary transition rate in remote 32.00 0.00 33.60 35.20 41.60 44.80 48.00 schools from 13 selected districts (Percentage) Female Students 19,033.00 90,000.00 (Number) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 C1. Improving quality of science and mathematics instruction Percent of CDSSs with student PBC 1 22.50 0.00 25.00 40.00 60.00 75.00 90.00 textbook ratio of 1:1 The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 for maths and science (Percentage) Number of interactive Science and Mathematics 0.00 0.00 8.00 24.00 40.00 56.00 64.00 64.00 units available for use by students (Number) Rationale: The change is motivated by the need to align the unit of measure with target for clarification purpose. The issue with the indicator was that at project Action: This conceptualization it stated that Malawi Institute of Education (MIE) would develop ‘modules’ that would form an input into Student’s Interactive Workbooks (SIWs). indicator has been However, MIE, as its mandate stipulates, developed ‘units’ which were used to produce the SIWs. The end result is that the original wording of the indicator is not Revised talking to the results of the implemented activities. The outputs from MIE are measured in units rather than modules. Since the number of units is clear, there is no need to present the result as percentage It was, therefore, agreed to adjust the indicator and its annual targets be recast to reflect the reality. % of CDSSs with students using interactive 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 workbooks in math and science (Percentage) 50% of CDSSs 100% of 25% increase 40% increase have head CDSSs have from baseline from baseline Percent of CDSS Leadership teachers and head teachers in the share of in the share of meeting prioritized training deputy head and deputy CDSSs meet CDSSs meet leadership and 28.90 material 43.35 teachers head teachers prioritized prioritized management reviewed and trained on trained on leadership leadership standards (Text) updated management management and and and and management management The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 instructional instructional standards standards leadership leadership Action: This indicator has been Revised Percent of CDSS teachers in 43 Framework targeted clusters that maps TTIs with good 3 percentage 7 percentage 12 percentage 15 percentage to the 43 professional, subject PBC 2 26.20 point increase point increase point increase point increase 46.20 cluster lead and curriculum from baseline from baseline from baseline from baseline schools knowledge in developed science and math (Text) Action plan CA Selected for CA foundations CA foundations Costed action Maths and improvement established established for plan for Biology implemented; for maths and maths and Foundational secondary teachers Teacher biology in biology in system for TA procured education CA; trained at refresher Forms 3 and 4 Forms 3 and 4 continuous using QCBS teacher cluster level; training integrating integrating 2nd assessment No modality; and guidelines 1st round of conducted; 2nd round round data. established for contract developed; pilot CA data 2nd round of data. Report Report and maths and biology signed teacher submitted to pilot CA data and action action plan (Text) training MANEB; generated; 1st plan prepared prepared on programme action plan for round data on roll out to roll out to other endorsed improvementsintegrated other subjects. developed into MANEB's subjects. system The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Students benefiting from direct interventions to 333,000.00 333,000.00 338,000.00 349,000.00 366,000.00 390,000.00 416,000.00 enhance learning (CRI, Number) Students benefiting from direct interventions to 162,000.00 164,000.00 170,000.00 179,000.00 204,000.00 enhance learning - Female (CRI, Number) C2. Increasing access to secondary education Complementary 3,750 7,500 11,250 streams for delivery Required Plan PBC 3, additional additional additional of secondary No and streams 3 students students students education endorsed. admitted admitted admitted established (Text) Rationale: The inception and adoption of the policy reforms have experienced delays. To reflect this delay and allow reforms to be rooted in the system, the target of additional Action: This students to the complimentary streams has been revised from 30,000 to 11,250. This means 3,750 additional students as the first target after the approval of the indicator has been policies and strategies and 7,500 additional students as the second target. The disbursement protocol of the PBC has been revised to attach US$3,550,000 to the Revised attainment of first target and US$3,500,000 to the attainment of second target. The PBC remains scalable. % of CDSS in the 13 Secondary Secondary 20% of CDSSs 30% of CDSSs 40% of CDSSs 50% of CDSSs Not yet due remote districts Teacher teacher meet Science meet Science meet Science meet Science & for meeting teacher Management development, & Maths & Maths & Maths Maths teacher measurement establishment in Information recruitment, teacher teacher teacher establishment The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Science and System deployment establishment establishment establishment requirements Mathematics (Text) developed and requirements requirements requirements defined in and management defined in defined in defined in STDMS operationalize strategy and STDMS STDMS STDMS d implementati on plan endorsed ICT enabled examination 45 to 50% of management 43 to 45% of 50% of public % of public public system public secondary secondary schools secondary developed; secondary schools conforming to class schools PBC 4, school schools have conform to the size range of 40-60 43% conform to 4 selection average class average class students in Form 1 class size of digitized with size of 40-60 size of 40-60 in the 13 selected 40-60 flexibility in students at students in districts (Text) students in admissions at Form 1 Form 1. Form 1 school level established Rationale: This indicator is a PBC. However, the class size that the indicator is promoting is not in synch with what the National Education Sector Investment Plan (NESIP) Action: This stipulates. The NESIP recommends a class size range of 40-60 students. According to the recently concluded Annual School Census (ASC), only 40% of the public schools indicator has been have the recommended 40-60 class size. Hence, the end-line conformity target of 90% is quite huge and unlikely to be attained. Therefore, the class size range has been Revised changed to align with the one in NESIP and that the end-line target be reduced from 90% to 50%. % of CDSSs in 13 Dissemination 40% of CDSSs 50% of CDSSs 60% of CDSSs 90% of CDSSs in remote districts of guidelines in 43 selected in 43 selected in 43 selected 43 selected 35.6 percent with functional GBV and materials clusters have clusters have clusters have clusters have redressal and on GBV and functional functional functional functional GBV The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 adolescent hygiene adolescent GBV redressal GBV redressal GBV redressal redressal and support systems health and and and and adolescent (Text) hygiene to the adolescent adolescent adolescent hygiene developed/re hygiene hygiene hygiene support system vised and support support support endorsed for system system system implementati on by schools Rationale: The baseline has been revised to 36.3 percent. The new baseline reflects the adopted computation. The measurement of this indicator requires that data be collected on 14 different parameters. One of the parameters (whether health facilities provide nutritional support to vulnerable students) is deemed to be outside the control of Action: This a school. Therefore, this parameter has been taken off. Despite this reduction, based on available data, meeting all the 13 parameters was found to be a tall order for indicator has been schools. The number of parameters schools is to be appraised on to 13. Based on the previous trends and realism, the threshold for a school to be considered to have a Revised functional GBV redressal and adolescent hygiene support system has changed to 8 out of 13. Hence, a school should be certified as having a functional GBV redressal and adolescent hygiene system if it qualifies on any 8 of the 13 parameters. A new baseline has been recalculated based on the 2021 inspection data. The project’s end- line target of 90% has been maintained. TA procured and contract signed; digitized 85% of 85% of 85% of 85% of 85% of Progression rate for bursary supported supported supported supported supported disadvantaged targeting and students students students students students students benefiting 0.00 tracking progress to progress to progress to progress to progress to the from scholarships system with the next the next the next the next next (Text) scholarships grade/form grade/form grade/form grade/form grade/form for students from remote schools The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 established % Female 0.00 80.00 (Percentage) 100% compliance to civil works procurement Number of schools procedures 100% 30 to 40% of 40 to 50% of 50 to 60% of 60 to 70% of 70 to 80% of 80 to 90% of 90% or more expanded or At least 75% of that enhance contracts target schools target schools target schools target schools target schools target schools of target upgraded based on PBC 5, target schools 0.00 value for signed and are are are are are are schools are agreed minimum 5 are adequately money; and civil works expanded/upg expanded/upg expanded/upg expanded/upg expanded/upgexpanded/upg expanded/upg infrastructure maintained environmenta commenced raded raded. raded raded raded raded raded package (Text) l and social management plans for each site cleared Rationale: This indicator is also a PBC with US$29,496,000 attached to its attainment. All the funds attached to non-scalable results were disbursed following the attainment of Action: This the targets. However, the scalable conditions have proved to be very unrealistic. The reality on the ground is that none of the contractors have managed to finish and indicator has been handover a single site despite working for the entire 10 months contract period. Therefore, the Disbursement Criteria have been adjusted to the realistic performance Revised on ground and to align the reimbursement protocol with the scalability nature of the indicator. Stakeholder Design/Adopt satisfaction in a service Baseline delivery of delivery Establish 10 percent 20 percent established by Not due for Not due for secondary mechanism baseline increase from increase from September measurement measurement education in the 13 for feedback satisfaction baseline baseline 2020 remote districts from (Text) citizens/stake The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 holders; Number of low-cost classrooms constructed to allow 0.00 100.00 240.00 240.00 social distancing (Number) Teachers recruited or trained (CRI, 0.00 4,500.00 8,000.00 800.00 13,300.00 Number) Teachers recruited or trained - Female 0.00 730.00 1,280.00 2,010.00 (RMS requirement) (CRI, Number) Number of teachers 0.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 recruited (CRI, Number) Number of female teachers 0.00 500.00 500.00 recruited (Number) Number of teachers trained 0.00 4,500.00 6,500.00 800.00 11,800.00 (CRI, Number) Female drop out 14.00 10.00 rate in public The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 secondary schools in 13 remote districts (Percentage) IO Table SPACE Performance-Based Conditions Matrix DLI IN01393994 ACTION PBC 1 Percent of CDSSs with student textbook ratio of 1:1 for maths and science Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Percentage 15,500,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline 22.50 FY20 25.00 3,000,000.00 see Annex 4 FY21 40.00 4,000,000.00 see Annex 4 FY22 60.00 3,500,000.00 see Annex 4 FY23 75.00 2,500,000.00 see Annex 4 FY24 1,500,000.00 see Annex 4 FY25 1,000,000.00 see Annex 4 The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) DLI IN01393995 ACTION Percent of CDSS teachers in 43 targeted clusters with good professional, subject and curriculum knowledge in science and PBC 2 math Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 12,510,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline 26.20 FY20 3 percentage point increase from baseline 3,000,000.00 see Annex 4 FY21 7 percentage point increase from baseline 2,280,000.00 see Annex 4 FY22 12 percentage point increase from baseline 2,400,000.00 see Annex 4 FY23 15 percentage point increase from baseline 1,800,000.00 see Annex 4 FY24 1,510,000.00 see Annex 4 FY25 1,520,000.00 see Annex 4 DLI IN01393996 ACTION PBC 3 Complementary streams for delivery of secondary education established Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 11,050,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline No Secondary education sustainable expansion plan FY20 1,000,000.00 see Annex 4 finalized and endorsed for implementation The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) 7,500 additional students admitted to FY21 complementary stream of secondary education in 3,000,000.00 see Annex 4 the 13 remote districts 7,500 additional students admitted to FY22 complementary stream of secondary education in 2,500,000.00 see Annex 4 the 13 remote districts 7,500 additional students admitted to FY23 complementary stream of secondary education in 2,450,000.00 see Annex 4 the 13 remote districts FY24 1,050,000.00 see Annex 4 FY25 1,050,000.00 see Annex 4 Action: This PBC has been Revised. See below. DLI IN01395834 ACTION PBC 3 Complementary streams for delivery of secondary education established Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 11,050,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline No FY20 0.00 FY21 0.00 Secondary delivery streams (OSS, ODL, Double- Shift, Public Private Partnership schools) and FY22 financing formula/model reviewed and clear 4,000,000.00 policy direction provided to inform expansion plan. And Secondary education sustainable The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) expansion plan finalized and endorsed for implementation 3,750 additional students admitted to FY23 complementary stream of secondary education in 3,550,000.00 see Annex 4- Revised the 13 remote districts 7,500 additional students admitted to FY24 complementary stream of secondary education in 3,500,000.00 see Annex 4 - Revised the 13 remote districts 11,250 additional students admitted to FY25 complementary stream of secondary education in 0.00 See Annex 4 - Revised the 13 remote districts Rationale: This indicator is a Performance Based Condition (PBC) with US$11,050,000 attached to its full achievement. However, the indicator lined-up a number of policy reforms to be developed during the first 2 years of implementation as prerequisites for achieving scalable results. The Ministry has delayed to achieve the prerequisite outputs such that it is remaining with only 2 years in which to achieve scalable results that were planned to be accumulated in 4 years (i.e. 30,000 additional students enrolled in the complimentary streams). This situation has rendered the scalable targets unattainable. As such the scalable end-line target has been reduced from the current 30,000 to 11,250 (i.e. 3,750 as first target and 7,500 as second target) additional students. Attach US$3,550,000 to the attainment of first target and US$3,500,000 to the attainment of second target. DLI IN01393997 ACTION PBC 4 % of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 40-60 students in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 10,900,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline 22.1% 43 to 45% of public secondary schools have FY20 1,000,000.00 see Annex 4 average class size of 40-60 students at Form 1 The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) 45 to 50% of public secondary schools conform to FY21 4,500,000.00 see Annex 4 class size of 40-60 students in Form 1 FY22 1,800,000.00 see Annex 4 FY23 1,800,000.00 see Annex 4 FY24 900,000.00 see Annex 4 FY25 900,000.00 see Annex 4 Action: This PBC has been Revised. See below. DLI IN01402282 ACTION PBC 4 % of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 40-60 students in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 10,900,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline 43% FY20 0.00 FY21 0.00 ICT enabled examination management system FY22 developed; school selection digitized with 1,000,000.00 See Annex 4 - Revised flexibility in admissions at school level established 43 to 45% of public secondary schools have FY23 2,828,571.00 see Annex 4 - Revised average class size of 40-60 students at Form 1 45 to 50% of public secondary schools conform to FY24 7,071,429.00 see Annex 4 - Revised class size of 40-60 students in Form 1 The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) 50% of public secondary schools conform to class FY25 0.00 see Annex 4 - Revised size of 40-60 students in Form 1 Rationale: The initial indicator is:% of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 45-55 in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts. The revision of the initial indicator is meant to align with the standards defined in National Education Sector Investment Plan (NESIP) of 60 students per classroom and motivated by the unlikeliness of the Project to achieve the original target. DLI IN01393998 ACTION PBC 5 Number of schools expanded or upgraded based on agreed minimum infrastructure package Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 29,496,000.00 0.00 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline 0.00 100% contracts signed and civil works FY20 2,800,000.00 see Annex 4 commenced FY21 60% of target schools are expanded/upgraded 10,080,000.00 see Annex 4 FY22 100% of target schools are expanded/upgraded 7,560,000.00 see Annex 4 75% of expanded schools are adequately FY23 7,056,000.00 see Annex 4 maintained FY24 1,000,000.00 see Annex 4 FY25 1,000,000.00 see Annex 4 Action: This PBC has been Revised. See below. The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) DLI IN01399846 ACTION PBC 5 Number of schools expanded or upgraded based on agreed minimum infrastructure package Type of PBC Scalability Unit of Measure Total Allocated Amount (USD) As % of Total Financing Amount Intermediate Outcome Yes Text 41,278,400.00 6.78 Period Value Allocated Amount (USD) Formula Baseline 0.00 100% contracts signed and civil works FY20 2,800,000.00 see Annex 4 (PAD) commenced FY21 30 to 50% of progress per site 7,308,000.00 see Annex 4 - Revised FY22 50 to 80% of progress per site 13,154,400.00 see Annex 4 - Revised FY23 80 to 100% of progress per site 14,616,000.00 see Annex 4 - Revised 50 to 75% of newly expanded schools adequately FY24 1,400,000.00 see Annex 4 - Revised maintained 75 to 100% of newly expanded schools adequately FY25 2,000,000.00 see Annex 4 - Revised maintained Rationale: This indicator is a PBC with a whooping US$29,496,000 attached. All the funds attached to non-scalable results were disbursed following the attainment of the targets. However, the scalable conditions have proved to be very unrealistic. The first condition to trigger disbursement requires that the Ministry, through Contractors, finish the full scope of works on at least 60 of the 103 sites in order to claim funds. The reality on the ground is that none of the contractors have managed to finish and handover a single site despite working for the entire 10 months contract period. Therefore, the Disbursement Criteria has been changed to adjust with reality on the ground as describe in Table 3. The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Verification Protocol Table: Performance-Based Conditions DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 1 Percent of CDSSs with student textbook ratio of 1:1 for maths and science Description Data source/ Agency see Annex 4.1a Verification Entity See Annex 4.1a See Annex 4.1a Procedure DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION Percent of CDSS teachers in 43 targeted clusters with good professional, subject and curriculum knowledge in science and PBC 2 math Description See PAD pg 49 Data source/ Agency See Annex 4b Verification Entity See Annex 4b See Annex 4b Procedure DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 3 Complementary streams for delivery of secondary education established Description See PAD pg 50 Data source/ Agency See Annex 4c Verification Entity See Annex 4c See Annex 4c Procedure DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 3 Complementary streams for delivery of secondary education established See PAD pg 50 and RP para. 13 Description Data source/ Agency See Annex 4c of the PAD The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) See Annex 4c of the PAD Verification Entity See Annex 4c of the PAD Procedure DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 4 % of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 40-60 students in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts Description See PAD pg 51 and RP pgXX Data source/ Agency see Annex 4d Verification Entity see Annex 4d see Annex 4d Procedure DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 4 % of public secondary schools conforming to class size range of 40-60 students in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts See PAD pg 51 and RP para. 14. Description see Annex 4d of PAD Data source/ Agency see Annex 4d of PAD Verification Entity see Annex 4d of PAD Procedure DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 5 Number of schools expanded or upgraded based on agreed minimum infrastructure package Description See PAD pg 53 Data source/ Agency see annex 4e Verification Entity see Annex 4e see Annex 4e Procedure The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) DLI_TBL_VERIFICATION PBC 5 Number of schools expanded or upgraded based on agreed minimum infrastructure package See PAD pg 53. and RP para. 15 Description Data source/ Agency see annex 4e Verification Entity see Annex 4e see Annex 4e Procedure Annex 4: Disbursement Linked Indicators Schedule - Revised Disbursement Linked Result Indicators Disbursement Linked Results Indicator Targets Year 1 Year 2 Year3 - 6 PBC 1. % of CDSSs with student textbook 1.1. 100% compliance to procurement 1.2. 25% of CDSS with student textbook 1.3.-1.6 Percentage of CDSSs having a ratio of 1:1 in Math and Science (SDR methods that enhance value for money ratio of 1:1 in at least two of the four student textbook ratio of 1:1 in Math and 11,160,000/US$15,500,000) (SDR 2,160,000/US$3,000,000) subjects three Science subjects. (SDR 2,880,000/US$ 4,000,000) (SDR 6,120,000) Scalable: SDR 23,760 for DLI 1.3-1.6 disbursed for every percentage point achieved above 25% for each of the four subjects up to a maximum of SDR 6.12 million corresponding to 90% PBC 2. % of CDSS teachers in 43 targeted clusters with 2.1.1. Framework that maps TTIs to the 43 cluster lead 2.2 – 2.6 Percentage of CDSS teachers in 43 targeted good professional, subject and curriculum knowledge in schools developed (SDR 360,000/US$500,000) clusters with good professional, subject and curriculum science and mathematics (SDR 9,002,000/US$ knowledge in science and mathematics (SDR 12,510,000) 6,842,000/US$ 9,510,000). 2.1.2. Baseline established based on selected national education standard (SDR Scalable: SDR 328,320/US$456,000 disbursed for every percentage point improvement 1,800,000/US$2,500,000) on teacher professional, subject and curriculum knowledge up to a maximum of SDR 6.842 million/US$ 9.12 million corresponding to 20 percentage points increase from established baseline PBC 3. Complementary streams for 3.1. Secondary delivery streams (OSS, ODL, 3.2. Secondary education sustainable 3.3- 3.6. Number of additional students delivery of secondary education Double-Shift, PPP schools) and school expansion plan finalized and endorsed for enrolled in the complementary streams of established (SDR 7,956,000/US$ financing formula/ model reviewed (SDR implementation (SDR 2,160,000/US$ secondary education. 11,050,000) 720,000/US$ 1,000,000) 3,000,000) (SDR 5,076,000/US$ 7,050,000). Scalable: SDR 451/US$ 626.7 disbursed for every additional student enrolled in the complementary stream of secondary education up to a maximum of SDR 5.08 million corresponding to 11,250 additional students in the pilot stream PBC 4. % of public secondary schools conforming to class 4.1.1. ICT enabled examination management system 4.2 – 4.6. % of public secondary schools conforming to size range of 40-60 in Form 1 in the 13 selected districts developed; (SDR 360,000/US$ 500,000) class size range of 40-60 in Form 1 in the 13 selected (SDR 7,848,000/US$10,900,000) districts (SDR 7,128,000/US$ 9,900,000). The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) 4.1.2. School selection digitized and flexibility in admissions at school level established Scalable: SDR 1,018,286/US$1,414,286 disbursed for every percentage point (SDR 360,000/US$ 500,000 improvement on the proportion of schools meeting the prescribed class size in Form 1 up to a maximum of SDR 7.13 million/US$ 9.9 million corresponding to 50% of CDSS meeting this norm PBC 5. Number of schools 5.1.1. 100% compliance to civil 5.2.1. 100% contracts signed 5.3. Completion rate of 5.4. Percentage of newly expanded or upgraded based on works procurement procedures (SDR 3,654,720/US$ 5,076,000) expansion or upgrading works for expanded schools adequately agreed minimum infrastructure that enhance value for money the targeted schools. (SDR maintained (SDR 1,440,000/US$ package (SDR (SDR 720,000/US$ 1,000,000) 10,523,520/US$ 14,620,000) 2,000,000). 21,234,240/US$29,496,000) The World Bank Equity with Quality and Learning at Secondary (EQUALS) (P164223) Note to Task Teams: End of system generated content, document is editable from here. Please delete this note when finalizing the document