REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS, HOUSING AND WATER RESOURCES, NATIONAL ROADS ADMINISTRATION, PUBLIC INSTITUTE CLIMATE RESILIENT ROADS FOR THE NORTH (P500488) In the Provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula & Niassa – Mozambique SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT (SRA) 20 FEBRUARY 2024 PREPARED FOR PREPARED BY Administração Nacional de Estradas (ANE) Gabinete do Director Geral info@jbn.co.ug / www.jbn.co.ug Attention: Mr. Elias Anlaué Paulo - Director General Kampala, Uganda Av. de Moçambique, Nº 1225, C.P. 403 in Joint Venture with Maputo Mozambique Telephone: +258 21 476 163 / 7, Email: anenorte.42@ane.gov.mz info@ea.intelligentperspectives.com Maputo, Mozambique SRA.21.01.24 SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT (SRA) - 2024 REV. 00 CLIMATE RESILIENT ROADS FOR THE NORTH Page i of 26 Periodicity of review Annual Level of coverage North Region – Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa Responsible for the plan ANE Direct implementers PSC, PIU, Security Risk Management Company and PIs Type of Information CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT CLEARANCE FORM Name of Unit Environmental Services Document Title Consultancy Services to Develop the Environmental and Social Instruments for Climate Resilient Roads for the North of Mozambique. Project Name Climate Resilient Roads for the North (P500488) RFP Nº 47A003041/CP/157/2023 Client Address Administração Nacional de Estradas (ANE) Gabinete do Director Geral Attention: Mr. Elias Anlaué Paulo - Director General Av. de Moçambique, Nº 1225, C.P. 403 Maputo Mozambique Telephone: +258 21 476 163 / 7, Email : anenorte.42@ane.gov.mz Quality Assurance Reviewer/Approver Title/Role Version Consultant (JBN Team) JBN in Joint-Venture Author Consultants v.001 with EA Consultoria Alfredo Ricardo Reviewer(s) Project Manager v.001 Zunguze Approver Nelson Omagor Team Leader v.001 External Parties - Client Reviewers Current Version Draft Report  Final Version  Acronyms ANE, IP National Roads Administration, Public Institute CRRNP Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project CSOs Civil Society Organizations EHS Environmental Health and Safety EHSS Environmental, Health, Safety and Security ESG Environmental and Social Governance GBV Gender-Based Violence GRC Grievance Redress Committee GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GDP Gross Domestic Product M&E Monitoring and Evaluation GoM Government of Mozambique GRS Grievance Redress Service ILO International Labor Organization ICOCA International Code of Conduct Association ISO International Organization of Standardization INATRO National Institute of Road Transport MPWHWR Ministry of Public Works, Housing and Water Resources OHS Occupational Health and Safety PIU Project Implementation Unit PPE Personal Protective Equipment RF, PF Road Fund, Public Fund SRA Security Risk Assessment SRAp Security Risk Appetite SRT Security Risk Treatment SEP Stakeholder Engagement Plan SCP Stakeholder Consultation Plan SMP Security Management Plan STIs Sexual Operating Procedures ToRs Terms of Reference UN United Nations WGRC Workers Grievance Redress Committee WB World Bank i Terms & Definitions (ISO Guide 73) Risk: Effect of uncertainty on objectives. Consequence: Result of an event that affects objectives. Probability: Likelihood of something happening. Inherent Risk: Risk that exists without any treatment (control measures) that could alter the probability and consequence of a risk. Driving Risk: Risks that can cause other risks. Residual Risk: The risk that "remains" after the implementation of a specific treatment (control measures) to alter the probability and consequence. Risk Management: Coordinated activities to direct and control an organization regarding risk. Risk assessment process: Comprehensive process of identifying, analyzing, and assessing risks. Risk identification: Aims to find, recognize, and describe risks that may help or hinder the achievement of objectives. Risk analysis: Aims to understand the nature of risks and their characteristics, including the level of risk, where applicable. Risk assessment: Aims to support decision-making. Control: Measure that maintains and/or modifies the risk. Risk Appetite: Level of accepted risk. ii Table of Contents 1. Background of the Project .......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives of the Stakeholders Consultation Plan ........................................................ 2 2. Project Description ......................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Project Development Objectives and Description ........................................................ 4 2.2 Project Components .................................................................................................... 5 3. Mozambique Security context ..................................................................................... 7 3.1 Socio-political Ccontext ............................................................................................... 7 3.2 Crime and Security ...................................................................................................... 8 3.3 Terrorism ..................................................................................................................... 8 3.4 Kidnapping .................................................................................................................. 9 3.5 Mozambique Criminal Situation ................................................................................... 9 3.6 Armed Conflicts Recorded ........................................................................................... 9 4. Security Risk Assessment ........................................................................................ 10 4.1 Objectives.................................................................................................................. 10 5. SRA Methodology ...................................................................................................... 11 5.1 Assessment Criteria for Probability and Consequence .............................................. 11 6. ANE SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................. 12 7. Security treats ............................................................................................................ 12 7.1 Security Treats in the Districts Covered by the Project .............................................. 12 7.2Cabo Delgado Districts Covered by Project ........................................................................................................................................ 14 8. Districts cover by project major risks exposed ....................................................... 15 8.1 Analysis of Interconnectivity Between Risks .............................................................. 15 9. Risk Assessment Process: Identification, Analysis, and Assessment of risks .... 16 9.1 Cabo Delgado – Quissanga District ........................................................................... 16 9.2 Cabo Delgado Macomia District ................................................................................ 16 9.3 Cabo Delgado – Mecufi District ................................................................................. 17 9.4 Cabo Delgado – Ancuabe District .............................................................................. 17 9.5 Cabo Delgado – Palma District .................................................................................. 17 9.6 Cabo Delgado – Mueda District.............................................................................. 18 9.7 Cabo Delgado – Muidumbe District ........................................................................... 18 9.8 Nampula Districts Covered by Project Major Risks Exposed ..................................... 18 9.9 Niassa Districts Covered by Project Major Risks Exposed ......................................... 19 10. Security Risk Treatment - SRT .................................................................................. 19 11. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 22 Reference .......................................................................................................................... 23 iii Executive Summary With the aim of improving climate-resilient, safe, and sustainable road connectivity in the northern region of the country, the Government of Mozambique (GoM), through the National Roads Administration, Public Institute (ANE, IP), and the Road Fund, Public Fund (RF, PF), is preparing for the implementation of the Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (CRRNP). Considering the security situation in the country in general and, particularly, in the northern region, where we have been witnessing the phenomenon of insurgents attacks and their consequences since 2017, the need for conducting a Security Risk Assessment for the project's coverage area was raised, specifically in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula. In this context and in order to determine the required security level for the project, a Security Risk Assessment was conducted, considering the districts covered by the project, which served as the basis for designing the Security Management Plan for the same area. A risk matrix (Probability vs. Consequence), was developed utilizing the guidelines of ISO 31000:2019 and ISO 31010:2019 in conjunction with the Environmental and Social Governance, with the criteria below, resulting in the immediate diagnosis outlined in the following: Probability Consequence (considered: people, tangible and intangible assets, and infrastructure) Improbable 1 Human harm (staff and community): No impact on the 1 physical integrity of individuals; Reputational: Minor internal complaints; In operations: Operations halt for a maximum of 2 hours Possible 2 Human harm (staff and community): temporary disability 2 and/or hospitalization; Reputational: local media backlash; Operations: 50% operations constraint Human harm (staff and community): disability (30%), Probable 3 3 temporary disability and/or hospitalization; Reputational: negative national backlash; Operations: 75% operations constraint iv Almost 4 Human harm (staff and community): disability (+30%) or 4 certain death; Reputational: negative international backlash; Operations: Conditions the entire operation Risk Average risk level –all districts Insurgents’ attacks Lower category of the Extreme Risk Kidnapping Last category of the High Risk Theft/Assault Last category of the High Risk GBV Second category of the Extreme Risk Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism Last category of the High Risk Fire Lower category of the extreme Risk Traffic Accidents Last category of the High Risk Natural disaster and Health Risk Last category of the High Risk v 1. BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT Mozambique’s economy grew steadily until 2015, averaging 7.3 percent. From 2016 to 2020, economic activity decelerated sharply, and in 2020, gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 1.2 percent, marking the first economic contraction in three decades. Agriculture employs about 80 percent of the total workforce and generates about 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This sector is the mainstay of Mozambique’s economy and is critical for overall poverty reduction. However, agricultural productivity remains low and constrained by many factors, including limited access to transport infrastructure and services in rural areas. In addition to the poor accessibility to rural areas, Mozambique is highly exposed to extreme weather events, principally flooding that may become even more frequent because of Mozambique’s geography and long coastline. The recovery of the economy has a low impact on the reduction of poverty for the rural people as is driven by capital‐intensive and import‐dependent sectors, while low‐skilled jobs in the agriculture sector continue to dominate employment. As a result, the poorest people, living mainly in rural areas of Mozambique's northern region, have benefited less from economic growth than the overall population. In Cabo Delgado province, the cyclones, heavy rains and floods destroyed various infrastructures, including roads and bridges, hitting an already vulnerable population, which was in many areas affected by terrorism, violence and poverty. According to CRRN Project Concept Note (2023), the delays in rebuilding road infrastructures caused by insufficient financial resources had increased the degradation of the road network and bridges, especially steel bridges, causing partial isolation of the Mueda, Quissanga, Muidumbe, Macomia, Mecufi and Metuge districts, affecting around 378,762 people. In line with the above, the Government of Mozambique (GoM) through the National Roads Administration, Public Institute (ANE, IP) and Road Fund, Public Fund (RF, PF) is therefore preparing the implementation of the Climate Resilient Roads for the North Project (CRRNP) to enhance climate-resilient, safe and sustainable road connectivity in the Northern Provinces of Mozambique. The involvement of project-affected persons (PAPs) and other interested parties is one of the activities that must be carried out throughout the project life cycle, starting during the process of preparation, selection, implementation and operation of the project and within a time frame that allows relevant consultations with PAPs on project design. 1 In this context, the need to prepare the Stakeholder Consultation Plan (SCP) inclusively is established, providing relevant data on the security situation for people, infrastructure, assets, and operations in the areas covered by the project, serving as the basis for the Security Risk Assessment and Security Management Plan. 1.1 Objectives of the Stakeholders Consultation Plan The Stakeholder Consultation Plan (SCP) is an integral part of the Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP). A methodology has been defined for its implementation, aiming to create a robust engagement plan with effective collaboration from stakeholders while respecting critical aspects of an area characterized by some insurgents attacks. In this context, the following steps were followed in the methodology: Identification and Mapping of Stakeholders Preliminary identification and mapping of key stakeholders to be consulted for the Security Risk Assessment and Security Management Plan in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa. • Governmental and non-governmental institutions directly or indirectly involved in managing security risks impacting people, infrastructure, assets, and project operations; • Institutions handling data related to security issues concerning people, infrastructure, assets, and project operations; • Institutions with relevant information regarding security risks for people, infrastructure, assets, and project operations; • Local communities and citizens with relevant information (guards, drivers, traders, etc.). Definition of Objectives: • Gain a deep understanding of the local context and identify security risk factors for people (ANE and project staff, PIU, IPs, and communities), infrastructure, assets, and project operations in the project-covered areas; • Bring different parties together to negotiate their interests; • Enable the public to discuss and analyze project-related security issues; • Achieve sustainable development of the project; • Incorporate the wishes and opinions of interested and affected parties on security matters. 2 Principles of Stakeholder Consultation: • Public consultations will be organized throughout the project's life cycle, conducted openly, free from external manipulation, interference, coercion, or intimidation; • Information will be provided and widely distributed among all stakeholders in an appropriate format, providing opportunities for stakeholder feedback, analysis, and addressing comments and concerns; • Stakeholder identification is carried out to support better communications and build effective relationships. The participation process is inclusive, encouraging all stakeholders to participate in the consultation process. Special Attention to Vulnerable Groups Special attention should be given to vulnerable groups such as individuals (ANE, PIU, and IPs), drivers, who frequently travel to high-security risk zones, those involved in high-security risk project operations, and affected communities. Commitment, Integrity, and Respect Commitment to understanding, engagement, and stakeholder identification recognized and practiced from the outset. Integrity occurs when engagement is conducted in a way that promotes mutual respect and trust. Transparency and Trust Transparency is demonstrated when community concerns are responded to in a timely, open, effective manner and with the knowledge of all stakeholders. Trust is achieved through open and meaningful dialogue that respects and defends differences expressed in the community's beliefs, values, and opinions. Ethical Considerations The consulting team will rigorously adhere to the recommendations outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO) to maintain the utmost confidentiality and privacy of all participants during the consultation and data collection processes. Informed consent will be diligently obtained from each participant involved. Continuous Evaluation Conduct ongoing assessments of engagement, adjusting the approach as necessary based on feedback and the evolving situation. 3 This plan aims to ensure an ethical, inclusive, and transparent consultation process, considering the diversity and specific needs of stakeholders and affected communities. Tools for information collection The tools used in this process for information collection were the integration of interviews (formal and informal), brainstorming, and checklists based on ISO 31010:2019. 2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 2.1 Project Development Objectives and Description The project objective is to enhance climate-resilient, safe and sustainable road connectivity in the Northern provinces of Mozambique, namely Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula. It will target the upgrading, rehabilitation, and maintenance of selected secondary and tertiary roads, as well as the construction and rehabilitation of bridges in the secondary road network and installation of bailey bridges in the tertiary road network. Figure 1 – Project target área 4 2.2 Project Components The project consists of three (3) components, as described in the table below: Component Subcomponents and Description Component 1: Climate Sub-component 1.1: Improvement and maintenance of road Resilient, Safe and network (US$81.5 million). This sub-component will focus Sustainable potentially on the following: (i) Upgrade of 52km of the secondary Improvement of Roads road N381 Mueda – Xitaxi; and 15km of the tertiary road R762 (US$ 119.6 million) Muepane – Quissanga; and rehabilitation of 25km of sealed secondary road N380 Muagamula – Xitaxi in Cabo Delgado province, including the rehabilitation or reconstruction of culverts and other drainage infrastructure; (ii) Consultancy services for the preparation of concept design and bid documents for upgrading/rehabilitation of roads, including for follow-on operations, and the monitoring of road works; and (iii) Land acquisition and resettlement of project affected persons. Road safety audits/inspections will be conducted at different stages of the project, speed management and improved Vulnerable Road User (VRU) facilities will be ensured across project roads and bridges. Pedestrian sidewalks, and cycle lanes in urban and community centers, including wider shoulders along road segments will be introduced for non-motorized traffic to increase road safety of VRUs. Through this Subcomponent, Community infrastructure (markets, schools, health centers, agriculture produce storage facilities) will be provided to rural population along segments of roads targeted by the project and incorporated into the works contracts. Sub-component 1.2: Improvement of bridges and drainage structures (US$38.1 million). This sub-component will focus on: (i) Construction and rehabilitation of five concrete bridges along the secondary road N380 in Cabo Delgado (Mirohote (45m), Muaguamula (40m), Muera 1 (55m), Muera 2 (30m) and Nango (35m); (ii) Consultancy services for the preparation of concept design and bid documents, and the monitoring of the bridge works in Cabo Delgado province; (iii) acquisition and installation of 1,500m 5 of bailey/metallic bridges in tertiary roads in all three northern provinces, including the construction of substructure of the bridges; and (iv) Consultancy services for design and preparation of bid documents for construction of the substructure for installation of the bailey/metallic bridges in all three northern provinces. Component 2: The Safe System approach for road safety will be an integral part of Improvement of Road the road design and implementation. This component will finance: Safety and Transport • the enhancement of the capacity of the National Institute of Mobility (US$ 2.5 Road Transport (INATRO) on road safety regulation, inspection million). and supervision, and ANE on road safety engineering. • a pilot program on safe road infrastructure, inclusive road safety programs targeting youth, awareness-raising and dissuasive measures, and improving gender disaggregated crash data collection. • first responder training for youth across project roads. • a “safer route to school” pilot to improve access to schools. • capacity building and accreditation on road safety audit; and • a study on improving transport services in rural areas, including addressing the recommendations of the report. Component 3: Component 3 will include incremental operating costs and Institutional institutional strengthening activities. It will cover: Strengthening and • an institutional assessment of the road sub-sector. Project Management • road asset management. (US$ 2.9 million). • enhancement of climate resilience in planning and management of road infrastructure. • road and traffic data collection. • preparation of a road maintenance strategy. • study on facilitation of public private partnerships in road rehabilitation and maintenance; (vii) development of community resilience committees led by women to support emergency preparedness and response; and • promotion of women’s employment in the road sub-sector. Effort will be made to incorporate a skills development and livelihoods 6 sub-component to provide opportunities for conflict-impacted local labor in the road works. This component will also provide technical assistance for the implementation of the project including procurement, FM and audits, environmental and social oversight, and M&E. Table 1: Summary of project componentes 3. MOZAMBIQUE SECURITY CONTEXT A detailed analysis of the political, social, economic, and cultural situation of the country was conducted by cross-referencing security data (crime statistics, reports on the Mozambican population, and various other available data) collected from different sources. The aim was to highlight security trends and specific threats in different regions of the country, particularly in the project-covered areas. 3.1 Socio-political Context Mozambique's current estimated population is about 32 million, and approximately two-thirds of this population live and work in rural areas (World Bank, 2022). Since 2017, Mozambique has registered Insurgents’ attacks in the province of Cabo Delgado, and currently incidents (albeit sporadically) in the province of Nampula and threats in the province of Niassa. The province of Cabo Delgado, in northern Mozambique, has been suffering Insurgents’ attacks, with greater incidence in the districts of Mocímboa da Praia (the district which registered the first attacks), expanding later to other districts such as Macomia, Quissanga, Ibo, Muidumbe, Nangade, Palma and Meluco. Nampula, with a record of at least one case of proven attack, whose target was a Christian institution (with one death recorded), and other facilities (Economic infrastructure) destroyed, Furthermore, Memba district, despite being a recruitment center for the Insurgents’ is highly vulnerable to the risk. The consequences of this phenomenon are multidimensional, starting with the destruction of private homes, buildings and public and private entities, the paralysis of essential health and education services, the looting of commercial establishments, economic stagnation due to the lack of regular movement of people and goods, death and the existence of displaced people throughout the country (Macalane, at all 2022). Generally, the insecurity in the region makes it less attractive for investment and economic activity, thus negatively affecting an already vulnerable population. 7 According to the latest annual report of the President of the Republic for 2023, the phenomenon of terrorism has led to the displacement of 627,846 people, of whom 50% are children, and 29.4% are women. Mozambique will have presidential elections in 2024, this political event considered critical during the entire electoral period (propaganda/campaign period, elections, dissemination of results and post -elections period), will create great pressure on civil society organisations and, consequently, the need for observance of specific security procedures since wrong elements could seize the opportunity to harm the unsuspecting population. In this context, a security risk assessment was carried out, considering the probability and consequence matrix, using the ISO 31000:2018 guidelines, in conjunction with IEC/ISO 31010: 2019. 3.2 Crime and Security According to data made available by the National Statistics Institute (statistical yearbook - INE, 2022), the crimes registered and cleared by the Police of the Republic of Mozambique in the period 2020 to 2021, went from 16,624 to 14,985 registered crimes and from 14,321 to 14,230 cleared crimes, which corresponds to a reduction of 9.9% and 0.6%, respectively. The category of crimes against property (robberies, armed robberies, thefts in their most different forms, arson, among other crimes related to loss of possession of property) and crimes against persons (voluntary and frustrated homicide, bodily harm in its most diverse forms, rapes, rape and others), are the categories that registered the highest number of cases for the year 2021, not being different in other previous years. 3.3 Insecurity The Insurgents’ acts that have a greater incidence in the northern area, specifically in Cabo Delgado Province, perpetrated allegedly by armed insurgents, considering the Modus Operandi (attacks against the local population, creating fear and panic, burning residences, stealing food and people's goods, etc), in addition to grief and pain, have contributed to the destruction of socio-economic infrastructures, reduction of productive capacity, increase in unemployment and setback in the levels of social welfare. This scenario in Mozambique has a direct and indirect impact on the presence of NGOs in the northern region, who, fearing that they could potentially be secondary or collateral victims, may simply withdraw and avoid their direct presence, despite the enormous needs, including humanitarian needs, of the communities. 8 In order to respond fully to the insurgency in the north and considering that terrorism is an event that does not stop at the border, the Mozambican government, under cooperation agreements, is currently counting on the presence of Rwandan and SADC forces. 3.4 Kidnapping This crime, which produces significant impacts on the human, social and economic aspects, tends to occur in large urban centres, especially in Maputo Province, Maputo City, Sofala and Manica, and has created a feeling of insecurity for citizens, especially the victims. The most common motive is financial (ransom demand), but we also have situations of adjustments of accounts between groups and scenarios motivated by cultural issues (for superstition purposes), etc. 3.5 Mozambique Criminal Situation Figure 2 – Mozambique criminal situation 2021 Source – INE 3.6 Armed Conflicts Recorded 9 Figure 3 – Armed conflicts recorder 2017 to 2023 Source: compiled by the consultant through the cross-referencing of various data from different sources Figure 4 – Armed conflicts and fatalities 2017 to 2023 Source: compiled by the consultant through the cross-referencing of various data from different sources 4. SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT 4.1 Objectives The objectives of the security risk assessment for the project in question are: 10 • Identify, analyze, and assess security risks and potential threats in the mapped locations for the project implementation in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa; • Develop risk treatment strategies to promote security for individuals (project implementers and local communities), assets, and infrastructure; • Assist in decision-making; and • Serve as a foundation for the Security Management Plan. 5. SRA METHODOLOGY 5.1 Assessment Criteria for Probability and Consequence Probability Consequence (considered: people, tangible and intangible assets, and infrastructure) Improbable 1 Human harm (staff and community): No impact on the physical 1 integrity of individuals; Reputational: Minor internal complaints; In operations: Operations halt for a maximum of 2 hours Possible 2 Human harm (staff and community): temporary disability 2 and/or hospitalization; Reputational: local media backlash; Operations: 50% operations constraint Human harm (staff and community): disability (30%), Probable 3 3 temporary disability and/or hospitalization; Reputational: negative national backlash; Operations: 75% operations constraint Almost certain 4 Human harm (staff and community): disability (+30%) or 4 death; Reputational: negative international backlash; Operations: Conditions the entire operation Table 2 – Probability and Consequence criteria Inherent/residual risk level Ref. Action (IRL/RRL) Matrix 1 Low risk: Maintain practices and procedures 2,3 Moderate risk: Define management responsibilities 4,6 High risk: high-level management action 11 8,9,12,16 Extreme risk: Immediate action Table3 – Inherent/Residual risk matrix level 6. ANE SWOT ANALYSIS Strengths: • Top management aware of the importance of security issues and the value it adds to the entire business; • Good relations with stakeholders in the project. Opportunities: • Security providers with the capacity to meet ANE's needs in the northern region. • Existence of institutions that can form partnerships for specific topics. Weaknesses: • Lack of a department or personnel managing security issues; • Absence of guiding documents (policy, plans, and security procedures). Threats: • Districts covered by the project exposed to armed attacks/terrorism/bombs and all associated risks; • Criminal activity and all risks linked and associated with it. Prioritization of actions: • Weaknesses Vs Threats: Vulnerabilities – Priority 1 in strategic actions; • Strengths Vs Opportunities: Offensive actions capacity – Priority 2 in strategic actions; • Weaknesses Vs Opportunities = Weaknesses – Priority 3 in strategic actions; • Strengths Vs Threats = Defensive actions capacity – Priority 4 in strategic actions. 7. SECURITY TREATS 7.1 Security Threats in the Districts Covered by the Project 12 List of provinces, districts and communities in the project target area Province Road to be Road section District Number of intervened communities Cabo Delgado R762 Mahate - Quissanga Quissanga 2 Cabo Delgado R762 Mahate - Quissanga Macomia 1 Cabo Delgado R760 Muchara - Mecufi Mecufi 5 Cabo Delgado R760 Muchara - Mecufi Ancuabe 5 Cabo Delgado R775/1260 Palma - Namoto Palma 4 Cabo Delgado N380 Muagamula - Mueda Mueda 2 Cabo Delgado N380 Muagamula - Mueda Muidumbe 8 Nampula R689 Angoche - Monapo Angoche 6 Nampula R689 Angoche - Monapo Mogincual 10 Nampula R689 Angoche - Monapo Monapo 3 Niassa R657 Magige - Cuamba Cuamba 17 Niassa N360 Metarica - Marupa Metarica 4 Niassa N360 Metarica - Marupa Maua 6 Niassa N360 Metarica - Marupa Marupa 3 Niassa N361 Lichinga - Lago Lichinga 3 Niassa Niassa N361 Lichinga - Lago Sanga 8 Niassa Niassa N361 Lichinga - Lago Lago 5 Niassa Niassa R733 Lussimbesse - Sanga 17 Matchedje Total 18 109 13 Criminal situation 2021 - 2022 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Crimes against Crimes against Crimes against public Traffic accidents Fatalities due to property persons order and tranquility traffic accidents Cabo Delgado Nampula Niassa Figure 4 – Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa criminal situation 2021 - 2022 Source – INE 7.2 Cabo Delgado Districts Covered by Project Figure 5 – Armed conflicts history recorder 2017 to 2022 Source: compiled by the consultant through the cross-referencing of various data from different sources 14 Figure 6 – Residential fire history recorder 2017 to 2022 Source: compiled by the consultant through the cross-referencing of various data from different sources 8. DISTRICTS COVER BY PROJECT MAJOR RISKS EXPOSED Considering the activities developed by the ANE, below is a compilation of the greatest risks exposed: Ref. Description R1 Insurgents’attacks R2 Kidnapping related to Insurgents’ attacks R3 Theft/Assault related to Insurgents’ attacks R4 GBV R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism related to Insurgents’ attacks R6 Residential Fire related to Insurgents’ attacks R7 Traffic Accidents R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk Table 4 – Project risks exposed 8.1 Analysis of Interconnectivity Between Risks 15 The risk of a Insurgents’ attacks presents as a driving risk, as it influences the occurrences of other risks such as kidnappings, theft/Assault, vandalism and residential fires. In this context, these risks have been mapped as realistic risk. 9. RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS: IDENTIFICATION, ANALYSIS, AND ASSESSMENT OF RISKS 9.1 Cabo Delgado – Quissanga District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 3 4 12 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/v 2 3 6 andalism R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and 2 3 6 Health Risk Table 5 – Quissanga Risk Matrix 9.2 Cabo Delgado Macomia District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 3 4 12 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 6 – Macomia Risk Matrix 16 9.3 Cabo Delgado – Mecufi District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 2 4 8 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 7 – Mecufi Risk Matrix 9.4 Cabo Delgado – Ancuabe District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 2 4 8 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 8 – Ancuabe Risk Matrix 9.5 Cabo Delgado – Palma District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’attacks 3 4 12 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 17 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 9 – Palma Risk Matrix 9.6 Cabo Delgado – Mueda District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’attacks 3 4 12 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 10 – Mueda Risk Matrix 9.7 Cabo Delgado – Muidumbe District Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 3 4 12 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 11 – Muidumbe Risk Matrix 9.8 Nampula Districts Covered by Project Major Risks Exposed Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 2 4 8 18 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 3 3 9 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 12 – Nampula districts Risk Matrix 9.9 Niassa Districts Covered by Project Major Risks Exposed Ref. Description Prob. Cons. NRI Exposed risks matrix R1 Insurgents’ attacks 2 4 8 R2 Kidnapping 2 3 6 R3 Theft/Assault 2 3 6 R4 GBV 2 3 6 R5 Demonstrations/tumults/vandalism 2 3 6 R6 Fire 2 4 8 R7 Traffic Accidents 2 3 6 R8 Natural disaster and Health Risk 2 3 6 Table 13 – Niassa districts Risk Matrix 10. SECURITY RISK TREATMENT - SRT ANE must ensure the presence of an internal staff member or consultant who will be responsible for managing security issues, ensuring the existence and implementation of a policy, plan, and procedures, as well as defining the Level of security risk tolerance. This individual should ensure that the treatment for the inherent risk is observed and that the residual risk falls within ANE's Level of security risk tolerance. Risk Average Risk treatment risk level – Change probability Change consequence all districts Insurgents’ Lower Design of a security procedure; attacks category of 19 the Extreme Design of a travel policy for Risk critical areas; Design of an emergency response procedure; Design of minimum-security standards for vehicles, individuals in high-risk areas, infrastructure, and assets; All project employees traveling to the districts must have a portable first aid kit and a first aid bag in the vehicle. They should also have a survival kit; Design of key risk indicator. Kidnapping The last Training and simulation Design of an emergency category of exercises on procedures to response procedure; the High Risk follow in a kidnapping Assigning panic buttons and gps situation. equipment to individuals with specific profiles. Theft/Assau Last category The internal security Ensure that private security lt of the High manager or consultant deployment is subject to a Code Risk must close liaison with local of Conduct and binding authorities (police and agreement on the use of force; military); Private security actor should be a Training on procedures to member of ICOCA (International follow in a theft/assault Code of Conduct Association). situation. GBV Second Design awareness Design of a GBV policy and category of programs on topics of GBV procedures the Extreme for the community and Risk project contractors; Coordinate with the local integrated mechanism for support in matters of 20 prevention and reporting of GBV cases. Demonstrati Last category The internal security ons/tumults/ of the High manager or consultant vandalism Risk must close liaison with local authorities (police and military); Training on procedures to follow in a tumult’s situation Fire Lower Training on procedures to Ensure the existence of fire category of follow in a fire situation. prevention and combat the extreme simulation exercises on equipment in contractor camps; Risk procedures to follow in a Ensure the presence of visible fire situation; emergency contacts; Train staff in firefighting, first aid, and emergency management. Traffic Last category Ensure that all vehicles Ensure compliance with travel Accidents of the High have undergone preventive and communication plans; Risk maintenance; Travel by day where possible and with a 4x4 enabled vehicle; Test and ensure the operability of communication equipment; All drivers must undergo defensive driving training; All vehicles must have an emergency kit; Ensure daily checklist vehicles. Natural Last category Simulation an evacuation Design of an evacuation plan; disaster and of the High exercises on procedures to Health Risk Risk follow in a natural disaster Design of key risk indicator. situation; 21 Table 14 – Risk treat measures 11. CONCLUSION Despite the country's security situation showing a slight decreasing trend, the situation of Insurgents’ attacks in Cabo Delgado and exposure to the same scenario by the bordering provinces of Nampula and Niassa remains concerning, requiring a robust security strategy to create a safe working environment for the project's personnel, communities, assets, facilities, and operations. 22 REFERENCE 1. Cabo Ligado Monthly Report: https://www.caboligado.com/monthly-reports 2. Conflito Armado no Norte de Mocambique, 2022, Macalane at all: https://www.iese.ac.mz/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/BB51.pdf 3. Good Practice Note related to Security topics: https://www.worldbank.org 4. International Organization for Standardization. (2019). ISO 31010:2019 Risk management — Risk assessment techniques. Geneva, Switzerland 5. International Organization for Standardization. (2018). ISO 31000:2018 Risk management — Guidelines. Geneva, Switzerland: 6. Mozambique Situation Report: https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/mozambique/ 7. Provincial Statistical Yearbook: https://www.ine.gov.mz/estat%C3%ADsticas/- /document_library/pfpz/view/44568 8. UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearmas by Law Enforcement Officials: Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials OHCHR 9. UN Code of Conduct for Law Enforcement Officials: Code of Conduct for Law Enforcement Officials | OHCHR 10. World Bank Open Data: https://data.worldbank.org/country/MZ 23