Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD5165 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED SECOND ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF JPY 10,148.8 MILLION (US$71.7 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN FOR THE SINDH BARRAGES IMPROVEMENT PROJECT March 1, 2024 Water Global Practice South Asia Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 2023) Currency Unit = Pakistani Rupee (PKR) PKR 278.20 = US$1 Japanese Yen (JPY) 141.545 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 Regional Vice President: Martin Raiser Country Director: Najy Benhassine Regional Director: Dina Umali-Deininger Practice Manager: Josses Mugabi Thiruni Udeshika Lekamwasam Liyanage, Task Team Leader(s): Francois Onimus ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADM Accountability and Decision-Making AED Anti-Encroachment Drive AF Additional Financing AM Accountability Mechanism ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan BMU Barrage Management Unit DLP Defects Liability Period DO Development Outcome DRM Disaster Risk Management EPP Emergency Preparedness Plan ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESIRT Environmental and Social Incident Response Toolkit FM Financial Management GoP Government of Pakistan GoS Government of Sindh GRS Grievance Redress Service ICR Implementation Completion and Results IP Implementation Progress ISR Implementation Status and Results Report O&M Operation and Maintenance PCMU Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit PDO Project Development Objective PIC Project Implementation Consultant PMO Project Management Office PoE Panel of Experts PPP Purchasing Power Parity RCA Root Cause Analysis RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RVP Regional Vice President SBIP Sindh Barrages Improvement Project SEA/SH Sexual Exploitation and Abuse/Sexual Harassment SID Sindh Irrigation Department SMF Social Management Framework SMP Security Management Plan SSESMP Site-Specific Environmental and Social Management Plan TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................ 7 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING .................................................................... 10 III. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 13 IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 14 V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS .............................................................................. 18 VI. SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES .................................................................................... 20 VII. DETAILED CHANGE(S).................................................................................................... 20 VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 23 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) BASIC INFORMATION – PARENT (PK-Sindh Barrages Improvement Project - P131324) Country Product Line Team Leader(s) Pakistan IBRD/IDA Francois Onimus Project ID Financing Instrument Resp CC Req CC Practice Area (Lead) P131324 Investment Project SSAW2 (10086) SACPK (1539) Water Financing Implementing Agency: Sindh Irrigation Department ADD_FIN_TBL1 Is this a regionally tagged project? No Bank/IFC Collaboration No Expected Original Environmental Approval Date Closing Date Guarantee Current EA Category Assessment Category Expiration Date 19-Jun-2015 30-Jun-2024 Full Assessment (A) Full Assessment (A) Financing & Implementation Modalities Parent [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) Page 1 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) Development Objective(s) The PDO is to strengthen the Sindh Irrigation Department’s capacity to operate and manage barrages and improve the reliability and safety of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages in the Province of Sindh. Ratings (from Parent ISR) RATING_DRAFT_ NO Implementation Latest ISR 05-Apr-2021 10-Dec-2021 30-Jun-2022 29-Nov-2022 21-Jun-2023 15-Dec-2023 Progress towards achievement of MU MU MU MS MS MS PDO Overall Implementation U MU MU MS MS MS Progress (IP) Overall Safeguards S S MS MS MS MS Rating Overall Risk H S S S S S Financial Management S S S S S S Project Management MS MS MS S S S Procurement MU MS MS S S S Monitoring and Evaluation MS S MS MS MS MS BASIC INFORMATION – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project - P179051) ADDFIN_TABLE Urgent Need or Capacity Project ID Project Name Additional Financing Type Constraints P179051 Second Additional Cost Overrun/Financing Gap No Financing for the Sindh Page 2 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) Barrages Improvement Project Financing instrument Product line Approval Date Investment Project IBRD/IDA 22-Mar-2024 Financing Projected Date of Full Bank/IFC Collaboration Disbursement 30-Oct-2028 No Is this a regionally tagged project? No Financing & Implementation Modalities Child [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support (HEIS) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) Disbursement Summary (from Parent ISR) Net Source of Funds Total Disbursed Remaining Balance Disbursed Commitments IBRD % IDA 219.53 132.71 75.08 64 % Grants % PROJECT FINANCING DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project - P179051) PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) Page 3 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) SUMMARY -NewFi n1 SUMMARY (Total Financing) Proposed Additional Total Proposed Current Financing Financing Financing Total Project Cost 243.23 71.70 314.93 Total Financing 243.23 71.70 314.93 of which IBRD/IDA 219.53 71.70 291.23 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 0.00 DETAILS - Additional Financing NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 71.70 IDA Credit 71.70 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Guarantee Grant Amount SML Amount Total Amount Amount Amount Pakistan 71.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 71.70 National Performance-Based 71.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 71.70 Allocations (PBA) Total 71.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 71.70 COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Does the project require any other Policy waiver(s)? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Page 4 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Water Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks PROJECT TEAM Bank Staff Name Role Specialization Unit Thiruni Udeshika Team Leader (ADM SSAW2 Lekamwasam Liyanage Responsible) Francois Onimus Team Leader SSAW2 Procurement Specialist (ADM Uzma Sadaf ESARU Responsible) Shafiq Hussain Procurement Specialist ESARU Financial Management Noaman Ali ESAG1 Specialist (ADM Responsible) Anita Bimunka Takura Environmental Specialist (ADM SSAEN Tingbani Responsible) Social Specialist (ADM Imran-ul Haq Social Safeguards SSAS1 Responsible) Ahmed Shah Ahmadzai Team Member Financial Management ESAG1 Basharat Ahmed Saeed Team Member WRM SSAW2 Daisy Lopez Zita Team Member WFACS Jean O Owino Team Member Disbursement WFACS Junko Funahashi Counsel Legal LEGAS Mugambi Mugisha Team Member Disbursement WFACS Mwendia Ria Nuri Dharmawan Counsel Legal LEGLE Page 5 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) Richard Anthony Blazey Team Member SACPK Satish Kumar Shivakumar Team Member Disbursement WFACS Satoru Ueda Safeguards Advisor/ESSA SWADR Shabnam Naz Team Member SACPK Sharon D. C. Faulkner Team Member SSAW2 Takeaki Sato Environmental Specialist Environment SMNEN Tamar Morchiladze Team Member LEGAS Extended Team Name Title Organization Location Page 6 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING 1. This project paper seeks the approval for a second Additional Financing (AF) IDA credit of US$71.7 million to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (SBIP - P131324). The second AF aims to close a financing gap caused by a previous partial cancellation of the original credit and cost changes. The AF also comes with a restructuring of the parent project with the following changes: extension of the closing date by four years from June 30, 2024, to June 30, 2028, to allow for full completion and commissioning of the rehabilitated barrages and revisions to the project’s results framework. The project objectives, scope, and implementation arrangements remain unchanged, and there will be continuity of the World Bank’s safeguards policy from the original credit to the AF. The AF does not trigger any new safeguard policies. 2. Poverty reduction has slowed amid recent shocks, while growth has remained volatile and slow. Pakistan made significant progress towards reducing poverty between 2001 and 2018 when the expansion of off-farm economic opportunities and increased inflow of remittances allowed over 47 million Pakistanis to rise out of poverty. However, rapid poverty reduction has not fully translated into improved socioeconomic conditions, as human capital outcomes have remained poor, with high levels of stunting at 38 percent and learning poverty at 78 percent. Critical constraints, including persistent fiscal and current account deficit, protectionist trade policies, unproductive agriculture, a difficult business environment, a heavy state presence in the economy, and a financially unsustainable energy sector, have remained unaddressed, leading to slow and volatile growth. Progress with poverty reduction has recently slowed amid macroeconomic instability, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 catastrophic floods. The estimated lower- middle income poverty rate is 39.4 percent (US$3.65/day 2017 PPP) for 2023, only slightly below the poverty rate of 40 percent in 2018, with 3 million more Pakistanis living below the poverty line than in 2018. 3. Pakistan experienced heavy monsoon rains in 2022 leading to catastrophic and unprecedented flooding with enormous human and economic impacts. Roughly 33 million people were impacted, and many permanently displaced. More than 13,000 kilometers of roads were destroyed, 2.2 million houses damaged, around 3.8 million hectares of crops were flooded, and an estimated 1.2 million livestock were killed. Limited access to input and output markets and temporary disruptions to supply chains subsequently drove up food prices and added to existing price pressures resulting from reduced agricultural yields and the global rise of food prices. The government’s Post-Disaster Needs Assessment1 estimated that the need for rehabilitation and reconstruction is at US$16.3 billion. 4. The province relies on a cascade of three barrages2 (Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri) on the Indus River to abstract water for irrigation and domestic and industrial uses, including the water supply to Karachi and other major provincial towns. The barrages are designed to safely convey the Indus flood waters to the sea. The canal systems fed by these three barrages, considered the province’s lifeline, have an aggregate length of 19,000 km and serve a gross irrigation command area of 5.8 million hectares and 52 million people (all of Sindh’s population). Sukkur was the first barrage built on the Indus River in 1932. Kotri Barrage was 1 Government of Pakistan. 2022. Pakistan Floods 2022 Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. Ministry of Planning Development & Special Initiatives. 2 A barrage is a type of low-head, diversion dam which consists of a number of large gates that can be opened or closed to control the amount of water passing through. This allows the structure to regulate and stabilize river water elevation upstream for its diversion into canals. Page 7 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) completed in 1955, and Guddu Barrage in 1962. Sukkur Barrage was rehabilitated in the early 1990s, and Kotri Barrage was rehabilitated in 2000. 5. Having safe and well-performing barrages to abstract the water from the Indus River reliably and to convey the flood waters downstream is a crucial part of the broader World Bank engagement to build climate resilience in Sindh. The Province of Sindh lies at the downstream end of the Indus River Basin and is particularly prone to floods and droughts. The World Bank has supported the Province of Sindh in building its resilience to flood and drought through several projects.3 The World Bank’s Board of Directors recently approved a credit for the Sindh Water and Agriculture Transformation Project (P167596), which will increase agricultural water productivity by modernizing the irrigation network and improving crop production systems. It will also strengthen the province’s capacity to manage water resources more effectively. 6. An IDA credit (5684-PK) of US$188 million was approved for the SBIP on June 19, 2015. The Project Development Objective (PDO) was to improve the reliability and safety of the Guddu Barrage and strengthen the Sindh Irrigation Department’s (SID) capacity to operate and manage the barrage. The original project scope focused only on the rehabilitation of the Guddu Barrage, which had deteriorated over its lifespan of 50 years with limited maintenance. However, subsequent studies on the Sukkur Barrage confirmed the need for a second rehabilitation of this vital but aging structure. Thus, on May 25, 2018, the first AF credit (6242-PK) of US$140 million was approved to scale up the project to include (a) rehabilitation and modernization of Sukkur Barrage; (b) support for the integrated operation and maintenance (O&M) of the three barrages; (c) critical technical studies on sediment management and flood routing; and (d) better management of the riverine habitats of the Indus River between Guddu and Sukkur Barrages, including Indus dolphin protection, fish management, and afforestation. The revised PDO is to strengthen the SID’s capacity to operate and manage barrages and improve the reliability and safety of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages in the Province of Sindh. The AF came with an extension of the project closing date from December 22, 2020, to June 30, 2024. 7. The project is now eight years into implementation. The flagship infrastructure investments—that is, the rehabilitation of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages—have suffered significant delays due to several factors, including procurement delays due to bidder complaints resulting in court-ordered stay orders, delays in securing the contractor’s campsite and the right-of-way, change in the method of rehabilitation (in the case of Sukkur Barrage) from refurbishing to replacing gates, change in gate material and security issues (for Guddu Barrage), and COVID-19-related impacts on the supply of imported goods and equipment (gates and hoist systems). On June 3, 2021, at the request of the Government of Pakistan (GoP), US$30 million equivalent was cancelled from the original credit due to savings from exchange rate gains at that time. On December 22, 2021, the GoP and the World Bank agreed to cancel another US$78.47 million equivalent from the same credit. The original credit (5684-PK) closed on December 31, 2021, leaving the first AF credit (6242-PK) as the primary source of financing for the project. The IDA credit (6242-PK) is fully committed in contracts. 3 This includes the Water Sector Improvement Project (P084302), the Sindh Resilience Project (P155350) and its Additional Financing (P173087), and the Sindh Irrigated Agriculture Productivity Improvement Project (P145813). Page 8 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) 8. All major contracts are under implementation. By November 2022 satisfactory progress on the critical milestones agreed upon with the borrower (including signing the Sukkur works contract) was achieved. Disbursements stand at US$132.71 million (64 percent). 9. Physical progress on the Guddu Barrage rehabilitation stands at 55.9 percent. For the Sukkur Barrage, gate replacement works commenced in February 2023 and progress stands at 7.2 percent. The activities under Components B, C, and D show steady improvements. The SID has established a Barrage Management Unit (BMU) for all the O&M functions for the three barrages4 under Component B. Relevant SID units have come under the BMU’s Chief Engineer’s responsibility, and the project is providing technical assistance to build the capacity of the staff to perform barrage management functions, including accurate flow monitoring and control, sediment management, surveillance and maintenance, and emergency preparedness. Technical studies under Component C are ongoing, and the technical assistance to the Kotri Barrage is at the final stage of preparation. Component D activities under the Sindh Wildlife Department for conserving the endemic Indus dolphin are currently assessed as satisfactory, with a second dolphin survey planned for 2024. The last survey conducted in 2019 showed a total dolphin count of 1,419, of which 1,027 were mature, 216 were young (1-2 years), and 176 were calves (less than one year). Overall, the number of dolphins has increased from the last census in 2011, which recorded 918 dolphins. Rescue activities have helped minimize the number of dolphins lost due to canal entrapment. Awareness creation in local communities has also helped to address cultural beliefs about the dolphin. 10. Project management and fiduciary performances are rated satisfactory. Existing environmental and social safeguards instruments are adequate, and overall compliance is moderately satisfactory. The implementing agency’s performance is satisfactory. There are no pending financial audits or reports. All legal covenants have been complied with. The Project Management Office (PMO) is fully staffed and submits timely progress reports. The Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit (PCMU) under the Planning and Development Department supports overall project coordination and monitoring. 11. SBIP remains a priority for the Government of Sindh (GoS). Considering the role of the barrages in supplying water for all the province’s water needs and in conveying flood waters down to the sea, a functional or structural failure of these structures is just not an option. But the project has a financing gap of US$71.7 million because the total expected commitments (US$291 million) exceed the available IDA credit (US$219 million). With the award of the rehabilitation works contract at Sukkur and other associated works, the total amount committed in contracts is over US$255 million. Besides the financing gap, the project needs more time to achieve its objectives. Guddu Barrage rehabilitation will only be completed in December 2027 (including the defects liability period [DLP]). Sukkur Barrage rehabilitation will take five years (including the DLP), with a completion date around late February 2028. The current credit closing date is June 30, 2024. Thus, along with the AF, the project requires a four-year extension to June 30, 2028. The project can achieve its PDO with this extension and the proposed AF. The World Bank has agreed with the borrower on a revised implementation plan to complete the project by the revised closing date. The project’s results framework includes an intermediate indicator to track the progress of the large contracts against the agreed work schedule. 4The BMU was established by the SID by notification U.O No. FS(SR-II)2-165/2013/Pt-I dated April 2023 following approval by Chief Minister by Summary dated March 8, 2023. Page 9 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING 12. The AF will provide a US$71.7 million IDA credit to close the financing gap for the completion of activities. There are no new activities introduced under this AF. The description of Component A is unchanged except one activity dropped under Guddu Barrage works. The descriptions of Components B, C, and D are slightly updated for better clarity. Below is a brief description of the project scope. 13. Component A: Rehabilitation of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages (Revised total cost: US$286 million equivalent, of which IDA US$267 million equivalent). This component will finance the rehabilitation and modernization of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages and associated structures. These investments will not only improve the reliability of the water supply to the 14 main canals fed by the barrages but also restore the flood passage capacity of the barrages. The project area is highly vulnerable to climate change-induced drought and flooding, with high-risk levels for several flood events. Thus, the investments will help build climate resilience for infrastructure and project beneficiaries. 14. Rehabilitation and modernization of the Guddu Barrage and its associated structures, including (a) gate replacement works including all mechanical and electrical equipment; (b) concrete repairs along the upstream gate grooves and rehabilitation of both fish ladders; (c) river training works through construction of a left bank spur and strengthening of the upstream existing river training works; (d) construction of offices for the operation and maintenance staff at the Guddu Barrage, including laboratory, residential buildings, dispensary, mosque, recreational facilities, access roads and all supporting service infrastructure; (e) implementation of the Environmental and Social Management Plan for Guddu Barrage (but expressly excluding land expenditures and compensation for land acquisition related to the implementation of a resettlement instrument or cash compensation and other assistance paid in cash for involuntary resettlement); and (f) consulting services for construction, supervision, quality control and construction management support. 15. Rehabilitation and modernization of Sukkur Barrage and its associated structures included: (a) gates and mechanical works; (b) electrical work; (c) repairs to the main barrage and canal head regulator; (d) foundations inspection and repairs; (e) dredging works; (f) provision of a dredger; (g) provision of surveillance equipment and instrumentations; (h) construction and renovation of offices for the operation and maintenance staff at the Sukkur Barrage; (i) implementation of the Environmental and Social Management Plan for Sukkur Barrage (but expressly excluding land expenditures and compensation for land acquisition related to the implementation of a resettlement instrument or cash compensation and other assistance paid in cash for involuntary resettlement); and (j) consulting services for construction, supervision, quality control and construction management support. 16. Component B: Improved Barrage Operation (total cost: US$9.00 million equivalent, of which IDA is US$9.00 million equivalent). This component will finance an institutional capacity-strengthening program to improve the O&M of the three barrages. Activities will include technical assistance, training, incremental operating costs, and procurement of works, equipment, and logistics facilities to strengthen the BMU’s capacity to (a) measure and control flows into the main canals using improved barrage operating rules; (b) reduce sediment entries into the canals and thereby increase water conveyance capacities; (c) strengthen emergency preparedness towards extreme events, including promoting women’s participation in planning for evacuation and building knowledge on evacuation locations with a special focus on women, and (d) Page 10 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) improve structural monitoring and maintenance of the three Barrages. All these activities will directly contribute to improving the resilience of Sindh Province to extreme flood and drought events. 17. Component C: Technical Studies (Revised total cost: US$7.53 million equivalent, of which IDA is US$6.53 million equivalent). This component will finance studies that will inform the subsequent investment phases for the improvement of barrage safety and performance, including: (a) a flood routing study for the entire length of the Indus River in Sindh to inform the Emergency Preparedness Plans of Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri Barrages in case of large flood events; (b) a detailed hydraulics model study at Sukkur to determine the optimal design for the river training works and a detailed design study of these works, including the environmental and social impacts assessment; (c) a detailed operational improvement and safety assessment study for Kotri Barrage, including the identification of critical needs for repairs and upgrading, preparation of maintenance contracts, and the development of an O&M plan; and (d) a study to select the future site for a new barrage at Sukkur (for when the current barrage will need to be replaced). All these studies will include relevant climate change impact assessments to inform the designs. 18. Component D: Riverine Management (Revised total cost: US$1.70 million equivalent, of which IDA is US$1.50 million equivalent). This component will finance activities aiming at: (a) improved dolphin management and conservation; (b) restoration of fish migration; and (c) control of the flow downstream of Kotri Barrage. It will help mitigate the impact of drought events on indigenous species. 19. Component E: Project Management (Revised total cost: US$10.70 million equivalent, of which IDA is US$7.20 million equivalent). This component will support the incremental operating costs for maintaining the PMO under the SID and the PCMU throughout the extended project implementation period, including technical assistance to guide the procurement activities and monitor the civil works progress, training, monitoring and evaluation of the project’s results framework and overall project impacts, fiduciary and safeguard compliances. 20. Table 1 shows the current and revised project costs by component and the revised financing. The costs have been adjusted to reflect contract prices and revised budget forecasts. The cost of Component D is significantly reduced following the transfer of some activities related to building rehabilitation to Component A. The physical contingencies introduced in the first AF are now included in the component costs. 21. This second AF comes with an extension to the project closing date and revisions to the results framework. The project closing date will be extended until June 30, 2028, to complete rehabilitation works at Guddu and Sukkur, including the DLP. Adding DLP to the overall project duration is necessary to cover the cost of the engineering contract that extends until the end of the DLP and to complete the capacity- strengthening activities. World Bank management granted an exception to the requirement of an interim implementation completion and results (ICR) report under Section III, paragraph 61 of the Bank Directive on Investment Project Financing, given that the AF is solely to address a financing gap5. 5 The Sustainable Development Regional Director approved the ICR exception on October 24, 2023. Page 11 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) Table 1. Revised Project Costs (in US$, millions) Total Cost AF-2 Financing (Revised) Component Current Revised (IDA) IDA GoS GoP Total Component A: Rehabilitation of 272.90 286.00 65.00 267.00 15.60 3.40 286.00 Guddu and Sukkur Barrages Component B: Improved 9.00 9.00 2.40 9.00 — — 9.00 Barrage Operation Component C: Technical Studies 6.50 7.53 — 6.53 0.50 0.50 7.53 Component D: Riverine 4.50 1.70 — 1.50 0.06 0.14 1.70 Management Component E: Project 9.50 10.70 4.30 7.20 3.50 — 10.70 Management Contingencies 24.20 — — — — — — TOTAL 326.60 314.93 71.70 291.23 19.66 4.04 314.93 22. The changes to the results framework include (a) revisions to the PDO indicators to make them more outcome-focused, (b) changes to definitions of selected indicators to make them more specific and adjusting end target values to reflect what is achievable by the revised project closing date, and (c) introducing new intermediate indicators to track the progress on barrage and canal gate rehabilitation works and BMU institutional capacity strengthening. Details of the changes are provided in Section VIII, while Figure 1 outlines the theory of change. The project can be expected to contribute to the new World Bank Corporate Scorecard indicator “Millions of people with enhanced resilience to climate risks” through both infrastructure improvements and capacity enhancements.6 Figure 1. Theory of Change 6 This will be confirmed once the methodology for this indicator is established. The indicator description refers to “access to climate resilient infrastructure, food, and water.” The project contributes to increasing the resilience of the entire Sindh population to flood and drought events. Page 12 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) III. KEY RISKS 23. The overall risk rating for the project is Substantial. The key risks are described below. 24. Political and Governance: Substantial. Both the GoP and GoS demonstrates strong interest in the project due to its significance in improving the irrigation and drainage infrastructure in the Province of Sindh. While the interventions supported by this project are expected to remain a priority, the decision making may slow down particularly until the new government is stabilized after the recent election. The GoS has recently established a portfolio monitoring mechanism under the chairmanship of the Chief Minister to discuss all project-related issues and bottlenecks. This regular review helps escalate the issues to higher levels and facilitates faster decision-making. 25. Macroeconomic: High. While fiscal consolidation measures have supported short-term stabilization, macroeconomic risks remain high amid a high debt burden (72 percent of GDP), heavy financial sector exposure to government debt, large external financing needs, weak confidence, and little progress with structural reforms. The floods in 2022 also possess a high demand on the GoS budget for recovery efforts. Significant risks include potential worsening of external conditions, further natural disasters, and a slowdown or reversals in policy adjustment. Realization of these risks may lead to macroeconomic instability, constraining public resource availability and imposing additional burdens on government organizational and technical capacity, thereby impeding achievement of project results. At the project level, the macro risk is mitigated by allowing substantial contingencies in the cost estimated. It is also expected that the GoS will prioritize SBIP in allocating government financing given its contribution to managing water resources, enhancing rural development, and addressing environmental and climate change challenges. 26. Technical Design of Project: Substantial. Barrage rehabilitation works are complex, and challenges may surface during construction, resulting in more delays or cost overruns. Several measures are in place to mitigate this risk. First, an internationally experienced engineering firm has been hired as the Project Implementation Consultant (PIC) to rigorously assess the technical risk factors, provide procurement support to the PMO, supervise the construction, and ensure control quality. Second, the project has attracted capable contractors with a proven track record of delivering on similar projects. Finally, a Panel of Experts (PoE) is in place to regularly review the designs and technical issues as they arise. 27. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability: Substantial. The project has faced significant implementation delays partly related to implementation capacity issues. However, the PMO under the SID and the PCMU under the Planning and Development Department have demonstrated their capacity to overcome challenges, although with lengthy delays in decision-making. The GoS has enhanced the staffing of these two entities. In addition, the PCMU receives specialist technical assistance from the Food and Agriculture Organization. The SID has taken the crucial step of establishing the BMU to strengthen its capacity to operate and manage the barrages. All these measures adequately mitigate the risk. 28. Environment and Social: Substantial. The risk is substantial due to local security concerns, which has significantly affected the project’s progress at the Guddu site (see paragraph 36). The situation has recently improved, but several incidents were reported earlier in 2023. The contractor has developed a Security Management Plan (SMP), and the PMO is arranging monthly meetings with relevant law and order agencies to review security risks and mobilize the necessary forces. Measures for protecting the contractors’ Page 13 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) employees are in place, such as avoiding any nighttime commute and training on handling security incidents. Sukkur Barrage is much safer than Guddu Barrage, and security issues are unlikely to affect the construction works substantially. IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 29. The proposed AF is required to close a financing gap, and there are no changes to the activities financed under the project that would require a reassessment of the project’s economic viability. Moreover, the procurement process has yielded good prices for the major contracts. The total project cost is slightly reduced in US dollar equivalent. B. Technical 30. Two notable changes were made to the engineering designs for Sukkur Barrage: all barrage gates will now be replaced, and the barrage gates replacement will be done using cofferdams. These two changes are discussed below. (a) Gates replacement. The feasibility study for Sukkur Barrage rehabilitation completed in January 2018 had recommended the repair and modification of all Sukkur Barrage gates with the following main objectives: extend the barrage’s life and modernize its operation and increase the barrage safety at low and high flows. The flood routing capacity was to be augmented by increasing the clearance under the fully opened gates and the height of the gates needed to be increased to avoid any overflow at the maximum pond level. No barrage gate and only 20 canal gates out of 56 were proposed to be replaced, based on the severity of deterioration. However, following the incident that occurred on Gate 39 of the main barrage (crack in the upper girder) in June 2018, the condition of the gates was reassessed using visual inspection and measurement of loss in material thickness due to corrosion. Considering that the modifications of the gates to raise their height were quite substantial and the difficulty of implementing these modification works at the site, it was finally decided to replace all barrage and canal gates. The decision was reviewed and endorsed by the PoE in its report dated March 2020. (b) Cofferdam methodology. The main reason for selecting a cofferdam approach instead of caisson gates for the replacement of the main barrage gates at Sukkur is that it will allow a full inspection of the barrage pavement and scour protection works, thus increasing the safety of the barrage for the years to come. It will also allow replacing the embedded parts of each gate if their condition so requires. A series of three cofferdams will be built at the end of the flood season (October–November) and removed before the commencement of the next flood season (May–June), leaving about seven months for gate replacement works. The cofferdams will be built using a combination of free-standing sheet piles on both sides of the barrage outside of the barrage floor, and of bulk sandbag embankment on top of the barrage floor. It will thus be possible to replace all the gates in three years plus one year of preparatory works (including fabrication of first set of gates). The cofferdam design was reviewed and endorsed by the PoE in its report dated July 2021. Page 14 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) C. Financial Management 31. The financial management (FM) arrangements and performance under the current project have been reassessed and found to be Satisfactory. FM risk rating remains as Moderate. The FM staffing in the PMO is satisfactory, and the AF does not envisage a need for additional FM staff at this stage. The PMO will continue to maintain relevant books of records for project’s transactions. The funds flow arrangements will remain the same and funds will be channeled through a new Designated Account for this AF. The financial reporting to the Bank will remain the same. The semesterly Interim Unaudited Financial Reports are being submitted timely and are acceptable to the Bank. The internal controls are adequate. The Department of the Auditor General of Pakistan through its Directorate General Audit Sindh will be responsible for the annual external audit of the project’s financial statement and will submit audit reports to the Bank within six months of the fiscal year. D. Procurement 32. The current procurement performance rating of the project is Satisfactory, considering the procurement process has already been completed for major Guddu and Sukkur Barrages works contracts and successful contract awards for the hydraulic model study and Rice Canal desilting works have also recently been completed. No new significant procurement activities will be added to the project, and the scope as well as the geographical areas of the project remain the same. The procurement assessment and the existing procurement arrangements in place remain valid. There may be some small procurement activities predominantly related to hiring individual consultants, which are low-value and low-risk. All upcoming procurements will continue to be carried out following the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations. There is a need for improved contract management for the major Guddu and Sukkur Barrage works contracts. The Contract Management Plans are already in place and will need to be updated with adequate key performance indicators. The PMO needs to hire additional staff from the market for contract management. E. Social (including Safeguards) 33. The AF covers only a financing gap and there are no new activities and no change in intervention areas. The existing assessment of social risks and impacts therefore remains valid. The environment and social instruments already prepared, reviewed, and cleared by the Bank remain valid and applicable. These instruments include the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), a Social Management Framework (SMF), and a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) prepared for the original project covering Guddu Barrage. Another ESIA was prepared and the SMF was updated for the first AF to include Sukkur Barrage. Following the decision to use a cofferdam for Sukkur Barrage rehabilitation, an addendum to the Sukkur ESIA was prepared. All these safeguard instruments were reviewed and cleared by the Bank and disclosed on the project’s and the World Bank’s respective websites. 34. An Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan (ARAP) was prepared and cleared for works at Guddu Barrage, followed by an addendum to reflect minor design changes. The original ARAP was successfully implemented with payments of all entitlements before the start of civil works and the PMO produced an ARAP completion report. The addendum to the ARAP is currently being implemented, and the process of compensation payments is in its final stages and the related civil works will start after compensation payments are made. The Sukkur Barrage rehabilitation works will not require any land acquisition. In line Page 15 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) with the Bank’s safeguards requirements, the bidding documents required preparing and implementing the contractor’s environmental and social management plans, including environmental, health, and safety, and gender-based violence/sexual exploitation and abuse and sexual harassment (SEA/SH) plans. 35. The scope of work under the first AF also included the desilting works on canals supplied from the right bank of the Sukkur Barrage. The government conducted an Anti-Encroachment Drive (AED) on first 4 km of embankment of these canals. The embankments subjected to the government led AED are not part of the project scope of Sukkur Barrage. The project scope covers only desilting works within the canal beds and side slopes. Currently desilting works are planned only for one canal. A Site-Specific Environmental and Social Management Plan (SSESMP) has been prepared detailing measures to be undertaken by the implementing agency and contractors during desilting activities. The SSESMP was reviewed and cleared by the Bank and then disclosed. This has been made part of the bidding documents and will be implemented during execution of works. 36. The institutional arrangements for the project are well established, with the PMO having adequate social staff, including a Social Safeguards Specialist and three social inspectors for assistance, under the Project Director. The PCMU is also equipped with sufficient staff and conducts quarterly inspection visits together with the PMO. The PIC for Guddu and Sukkur Barrages also has social staff as part of its team to supervise the implementation of management plans and conduct monitoring. 37. The peak labor force at the site was approximately 750 laborers for the Guddu Barrage and is expected to be around 1,000 laborers for the Sukkur Barrage. A significant percentage of the labor force, about 70–80 percent for Guddu and 70 percent for Sukkur, is expected to be hired locally. The project has assessed the risks related to SEA/SH as low. However, proactive measures have been taken to prevent potential risks, including strengthening the contractors’ obligations and capacity to address SEA/SH, HIV/AIDS, public health, and safety risks. All contractors have prepared and are implementing a Code of Conduct, and training/sensitization on gender awareness and SEA/SH is provided to contractors and security personnel. 38. The security situation at the Guddu Barrage is challenging. An incident occurred where a laborer was killed during a robbery incident, which was documented through the Environmental and Social Incident Response Toolkit (ESIRT) system. A Root Cause Analysis (RCA) was conducted, and an action plan was prepared and is being implemented by the Client. The contractor’s SMP addresses security-related issues. Security has been strengthened at the site through the deployment of more police force, and regular monthly meetings with law enforcement agencies are conducted to assess the law-and-order situation and make any necessary enhancements to the security measures deployed at the site. F. Environment (including Safeguards) 39. The environmental risk assessment for this AF remains the same given this is filling of a financing gap and no new activities are introduced. The project has already prepared all the required instruments, which are at various stages of implementation. The project Integrated Safeguard Datasheet provides details on the specific safeguards instruments prepared in fulfillment of each triggered safeguards policy. Two ESIAs have been prepared for Guddu and Sukkur Barrages respectively and are being implemented. There are no further environmental due diligence requirements. Page 16 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) 40. An Occupational Health and Safety incident occurred at Sukkur Barrage resulting in the death of one contractor’s laborer and minor injuries to another worker during construction of the engineer’s compound. An ESIRT process was followed, and an RCA was prepared for this incident. Corrective actions proposed in the RCA are now being implemented. 41. The parent project triggered OP 7.50: Projects on International Waterways as it relies on the Indus River, which is an international waterway as described in paragraph 1(a) of OP 7.50. An exception to the notification requirement under para 7(a) was approved by the Regional Vice President (RVP) on March 10, 2015, given the parent project investments involve rehabilitation of existing barrage facilities and based on the task team’s assessment that these investments would not adversely affect the quality or quantity of water flows to another riparian of the Indus River. Similarly, the first AF operation also fell under the 7(a) exception to notification, as approved by the RVP on January 30, 2018. This operation also triggers OP 7.50; however, no additional procedural step is required as this operation is filling a financing gap with no new activities and, as such, falls under the scope of earlier exception memos mentioned above. 42. Climate Co-Benefits: The Climate Co-Benefits for the project are high considering the critical importance of the barrages for the economy and livelihood of the entire province, and the role the project plays in increasing the resilience of the hydraulic system fed from these barrages to extreme flood and drought events. Barrages rehabilitation under Component A and their improved O&M under Component B will directly increase their resilience to climate change exacerbated floods. The project also finances climate- informed studies contributing to safe and reliable barrages operations under Component C, and promotes climate-resilient aquatic eco-system under Component D. G. Other Safeguard Policies (if applicable) 43. No change. H. Gender 44. Constraints on access to information, technology and social networks, education, and mobility can impede women’s ability to adequately prepare for disasters. It was documented that during the 2022 flash floods, women in Sindh had limited knowledge and skills to prepare for and protect themselves and their families from the flood’s effects; they lacked access to early warnings and the means to receive this information. Despite earlier investments in community-based disaster risk management (DRM), transmission of early warning information between district government entities and communities during the most recent bout of floods in 2022 was patchy, especially for vulnerable groups including women. As a result, the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment carried out by the World Bank and other development partners has called for tailor-made DRM for women and other vulnerable groups. 45. Further, in the aftermath of the 2010 floods, 44 percent of women groups surveyed said they learned about the floods through male relatives, while 22 percent learned about them through other women. Only 18 percent learned about the floods through radio or television, and only 8 percent through mosque announcements. Men, on the other hand, were able to access warnings from a more diverse range of sources, including people from outside their immediate households and official sources that were largely inaccessible to women. In certain instances, households that were forewarned about the floods chose to remain in situ rather than evacuating, particularly due to gendered considerations of purdah and fears about the safety of women outside their households. Page 17 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) 46. Studies have also shown that existing early warning messages and dissemination strategies for floods are prepared in a top-down and bureaucratic manner, with little to no involvement of local communities, especially from groups that are marginalized, such as women. A study in Sindh found that only 30 percent of female respondents were engaged in disaster management planning processes, compared to 74 percent of men. This, in turn, negatively impacts the effectiveness of early warning information dissemination, particularly how it is transmitted to and acted upon by women and male household heads. It also directly impacts women’s ability to plan for an evacuation route and for executing this plan in a crisis. The project will address gender gaps in access to early warning information, which are undergirded by constraints on women’s mobility and access to information and networks, as well as women’s participation in the design and dissemination of early warning messages under the preparation of Emergency Preparedness Plans (EPP) for the three barrages. 47. The project will address this gap through the following actions: (a) conduct a pilot assessment to refine the scope, dissemination methods, and language of early warning information in line with the needs and constraints of different groups of women (including women with disabilities and those with limited literacy); (b) engage and increase the capacity of local women’s organizations to undertake early warning outreach, and training and outreach targeting women; (c) undertake focused information dissemination and awareness campaigns to target women with disaster preparedness information and knowledge, including on measures that will ensure women and girls’ safety and dignity during potential evacuation events; and (d) establish a citizen’s monitoring committee to review and update a community-based DRM plan for selected riverine communities. Progress on closing the gender gaps will be measured through the combination of two interrelated indicators: Evacuation maps developed with input from women's groups (Y/N); and an increase in women’s knowledge of evacuation plans and the correct location of closest evacuation spots for (with before and after knowledge survey) (100 percent target). I. Citizen Engagement 48. The parent project and the proposed AF have meaningfully integrated elements of citizen engagement. The citizen engagement for SBIP will continue by implementing the SMF, ESIA, RPF, and the communication strategy. The citizen engagement will have two mechanisms: the consultation process for the ESIAs and ARAPs and the project-level Grievance Redress Mechanisms to improve engagement with project affected people and communities living near barrages throughout the life of the project. 49. Stakeholder consultations continue throughout the project implementation to obtain feedback to minimize the project’s adverse impacts. The consultation frameworks are included in the safeguard instruments of the project to guide consultation activities at various stages of the project. The project engaged a communication specialist who guides all communications with internal and external stakeholders. An indicator has been added in the results framework as “Affected persons participating in consultations who consider their suggestions have been taken into account” in accordance with corporate requirements of citizen engagement. V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 50. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a project supported by the World Bank may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance mechanisms or the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order Page 18 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the Bank’s independent Accountability Mechanism (AM). The AM houses the Inspection Panel, which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of Bank non-compliance with its policies and procedures, and the Dispute Resolution Service, which provides communities and borrowers with the opportunity to address complaints through dispute resolution. Complaints may be submitted to the AM at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the attention of Bank Management and after Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/GRS. For information on how to submit complaints to the Bank’s Accountability Mechanism, please visit https://accountability.worldbank.org. Page 19 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) VI. SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ VII. DETAILED CHANGE(S) COMPONENTS Current Component Name Current Cost Action Proposed Component Proposed Cost (US$, (US$, millions) Name millions) Component A: 272.90 Revised Component A: 286.00 Rehabilitation of Guddu and Rehabilitation of Guddu Sukkur Barrages and Sukkur Barrages Component B: Improved 9.00 No Change Component B: Improved 9.00 Barrage Operation Barrage Operation Component C: Technical 6.50 Revised Component C: Technical 7.53 Studies Studies Page 20 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) Component D: River basin 4.50 Revised Component D: River 1.70 water resources and riverine basin water resources management and riverine management Component E: Project 9.50 Revised Component E: Project 10.70 management, Monitoring management, and Evaluation Monitoring and Evaluation Price and Physical 24.20 Revised Price and Physical 0.00 Contingency Contingency TOTAL 326.60 314.93 LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Ln/Cr/Tf Status Original Closing Current Proposed Proposed Deadline Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-56840 Closed 22-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2021 30-Jun-2022 IDA-62420 Effective 30-Jun-2024 30-Jun-2024 30-Jun-2028 30-Oct-2028 Expected Disbursements (in US$) DISBURSTBL Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2015 0.00 0.00 2016 2,786,081.00 2,786,081.00 2017 12,000,000.00 14,786,081.00 2018 12,500,000.00 27,286,081.00 2019 10,000,000.00 37,286,081.00 2020 12,000,000.00 49,286,081.00 2021 24,200,007.00 73,486,088.00 2022 11,884,916.68 85,371,004.68 2023 22,370,168.70 107,741,173.38 2024 25,000,000.00 132,741,173.38 2025 44,000,000.00 176,741,173.38 2026 43,000,000.00 219,741,173.38 Page 21 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) 2027 39,000,000.00 258,741,173.38 2028 22,000,000.00 280,741,173.38 2029 10,450,000.00 291,191,173.38 SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Latest ISR Rating Current Rating Political and Governance ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Substantial Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate ⚫ High Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Other ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Overall ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial LEGAL COVENANTS2 LEGAL COVENANTS – Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) Sections and Description OPS_LEGAL_CONVENANT_CHILD_NODATA No information available Conditions Page 22 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Pakistan Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project Project Development Objective(s) The PDO is to strengthen the Sindh Irrigation Department’s capacity to operate and manage barrages and improve the reliabilit y and safety of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages in the Province of Sindh. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Strengthen the Sindh Irrigation Department’s capacity to operate and manage barrages Average annual score on the O&M performance scorecard for 0.00 90.00 each barrage (Percentage) Rationale: The previous indicator, "Three barrages operated under improved O&M plans (Number)" was revised to capture the Action: This indicator has been Revised progress of the implementation of the improved O&M plans. The new indicator is a better measure of strengthened O&M capacity as it tracks performance in implementing the O&M plans for each barrage. Improve the reliability and safety of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages in the Province of Sindh. Annual pond level deviation from targeted normal pond level (Meter(m)) 0.54 0.10 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The indicator "Reliable supply of water into the 10 main canals supported by Guddu and Sukkur Barrages (43.70 m3)" was replaced by this new indicator to measure the reliability of Barrage Operations with maintaining a stable Pond level. Page 23 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Increased design flood passage capacity for Sukkur Barrage 900,000.00 1,200,000.00 (cusec) (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The end target was corrected from 1,300,000 to 1,200,000 cusecs based on the available technical reports. Increased design flood passage capacity for Guddu Barrage 900,000.00 1,200,000.00 (cusec) (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The end target was corrected to 1,200,000 cusecs based on the available technical reports. PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rehabilitation of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages Planned rehabilitation and modernization works for 0.00 45.60 60.50 78.50 94.50 100.00 Guddu and Sukkur Barrages completed (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been There are no changes to the indicator; The end date is revised to align with the project completion and annual intermediate targets are introduced to tighten Revised the monitoring. The "percentage" was taken out of the indicator name. Gates replaced (Number) 0.00 35.00 48.00 98.00 158.00 201.00 Page 24 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised This is a new indicator introduced to measure the intermediate output of main rehabilitation contracts at Guddu and Sukkur. Improved Barrage Operation Barrage Management Unit established and functional No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes (Yes/No) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The indicator moved from the PDO level to the IO level as it measures an output rather than an outcome. Person-days of training delivered on Barrages O&M 0.00 1,000.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been This new indicator was introduced to measure training and capacity building efforts done on Barrage management. Revised Canal head regulators 0.00 0.00 3.00 7.00 12.00 14.00 calibrated (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been New indicator introduced to measure the intermediate physical progress towards improved flow measurement and control. Revised BMU award at least one performance based contract No No No Yes Yes Yes for maintenance (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised Emergency Preparedness Plan 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 finalized (Number) Page 25 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The unit of measurement was revised to "number" with an end-target of three covering three barrages. Evacuation maps developed with input from women's No Yes groups (Yes/No) Rationale: Action: This indicator is New This is a new indicator to measure support on gender gap filling. Increase in women's knowledge of evacuation plans and correct location of closest evacuation spots (with before 0.00 100.00 and after knowledge survey) (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator is New This is a new indicator to measure support on gender gap filling. Technical Studies Studies completed (Number) 0.00 3.00 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised This indicator has been revised to better reflect the progress of Component C. River Basin Water Resources and Riverine Management Community stakeholders 0.00 800.00 participating in project-related Page 26 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 consultations (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised % of which female 0.00 30.00 (Percentage) Dolphin rescues over dolphin stranded in canals (Percentage) 74.00 90.00 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised This new indicator reflects the outcome of the main activities under Component D. Project Management, Monitoring, and Evaluation Grievances registered related to delivery of project benefits 0.00 90.00 addressed (%) (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been This indicator is proposed to be removed with the introduction of a new indicator to capture the project efforts on Citizen Engagement. The progress of Marked for Deletion resolution of grievances would be reported in ISRs Affected persons participating in consultations who consider their suggestions have been 0.00 40.00 taken into account (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator is New This new indicator replaced the earlier indicator on the percentage of grievances addressed to better reflect the outcome of citizen engagement activities. Page 27 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) IO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection O&M performance scorecard is new performance management tool to be used by BMU to track implementation of Percentage progress O&M plans. It consists of estimated against each five categories of PIC progress activity in O&M BMU with PIC for Guddu Average annual score on the O&M indicators: (i) operational Annual reports and workplan; Indicator is and Sukkur performance scorecard for each barrage management, (ii) sediment BMU records average progress for all BMU for Kotri monitoring and activities, for three management, (iii) flow barrages. control, (iv) structural monitoring, preventive and curative maintenance, and (v) emergency preparedness. Daily records Daily gauge reading and of pond level monthly target pond This indicator measures the at three levels will be availed by average deviation in Barrages. BMU. meters over the year Annual pond level deviation from Annual Monthly The indicator is BMU between the target pond targeted normal pond level target pond calculated as the square level and the actual pond levels (in case root of the annual level upstream of Guddu the target average of the squared and Sukkur barrages. pond level is deviations (actual values adjusted on subtracted from the Page 28 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) weekly basis target values) after during removing the data the season in related to closure period accordance (generally one month) with and to flood prevailing periods. Final indicator hydrological value is the average conditions, annual deviation for the the revised three barrages target will be (converted from feet to used; meter). The baseline however no value is the average for daily 2018, 2019 and 2020 adjustment of (Guddu: 0.54 m; Sukkur: the target 0.40 m). shall be considered). The flood passage capacity of the Barrage after the rehabilitation, At modernization and the completion PIC report of completion river training works of planned Increased design flood passage capacity PIC Reports. of rehabilitation works PMO with PIC confirmed by the design works for for Sukkur Barrage (cusec) as per design. engineers leading to each improved flood control and barrage. enhanced resilience to climate change exacerbated flooding. The flood passage capacity At PIC report of completion Increased design flood passage capacity of the Barrage after the completion PIC reports of rehabilitation works PMO with PIC for Guddu Barrage (cusec) rehabilitation, of planned as per design. modernization and the works for Page 29 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) river training works each confirmed by the design barrage. engineers leading to improved flood control and enhanced resilience to climate change exacerbated flooding. ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection The indicator measures the physical progress of main Planned rehabilitation and modernization works contracts and Annually PoE Report PMO works for Guddu and Sukkur Barrages associated works at Guddu completed and Sukkur Barrages with a weighted-average based on the contract values. This indicator measures the progress in replacement of gates and associated A gate and hoisting hoisting system for the two Site system is considered Semi- barrages. This includes acceptance replaced once Site PIC Gates replaced annual main barrage gates (65 at reports (SAT) Acceptance Test (SAT) is Guddu and 56 at Sukkur) completed. and canal head regulator gates (25 at Guddu and 55 at Sukkur). Barrage Management Unit established BMU is considered Annual Irrigation Collection of relevant PMO and functional established and functional Department records. Page 30 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) once its creation has been records notified by Irrigation (notifications Department with an of BMU appropriate mandate establishment covering the three , mandate, CE barrages, its head has been nomination) nominated and core staff and BMU positions have been filled. organogram. Training This indicator measure the records For each training number of person.days of (training session, multiply training related to Barrages Semi- Person-days of training delivered on program number of participants PMO O&M. Training sessions are annual Barrages O&M indicating by number of days of programmed under the number of training. training plan for days, list of Component B. participants) Calibration is completed BMU when rating curve is notification notified by the BMU for Semi- based on Collection of relevant PMO Canal head regulators calibrated each canal gate showing annual report of records. actual flow based on gates upstream and downstream calibration. levels and gates opening. The indicator measures the capacity of BMU to contract out specialized signed maintenance that is Collection of relevant BMU award at least one performance Annual contract PMO with BMU currently not carried out by records. based contract for maintenance document. the Department for lack of sufficient skills and resources. The reference to performance-based Page 31 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) contract means the remuneration of the contractor has to be partially based on the achievement of key performance indicators. Notification of Emergency Preparedness Emergency plan is finalized once Annually Preparedness Check notification PMO Emergency Preparedness Plan finalized notified by the Irrigation Plan by Department. Irrigation Department. This indicator measures if Verification of the women groups were written inputs involved in developing and evacuation maps under verification of EPPs for each barrage. The signatures Evacuation maps developed with input Annual collection of records PMO with PIC indicator count as “yes” indicating the from women's groups when a women’s group input was provided written inputs incorporated and signed off that the in finalized input was incorporated plans. into the evacuation plans. This indicator measures the Structured survey of a share of women in the Baseline sample of gender- vicinity of the barrages Increase in women's knowledge of collection and disaggregated who demonstrate that they evacuation plans and correct location of Annual end survey population at risk as PMO with PIC have increased knowledge closest evacuation spots (with before and post identified in EPPs before of evacuation plans and after knowledge survey) intervention and after (baseline and know the correct location post-intervention) of closest evacuation spots as stipulated in EPPs Page 32 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) compared to baseline. This indicator measures the Final report of Check approval of final number of studies Annual PMO Studies completed studies report completed under Component C. Number of women and Records of men participating in consultations various consultations held (list or count by the project List or head count of semi- of Community stakeholders participating in (environmental and social, participants to each PMO Annually participants, project-related consultations water resources consultation event together with management, protection of event's natural resources, impact report). of improved barrages operations etc.) Progress Annually PMO % of which female Report This indicator measure the ratio of dolphins rescued from canals compared to number of dolphins stranded. The dolphins are Records Check number of to be kept in the river with Semi- from Sindh rescues against cases of PMO with Wildlife Dolphin rescues over dolphin stranded in various interventions and annual Wildlife dolphins stranded in Department canals they are not suppose to Department canals. enter into the canals. In case of entry, this indicator measures the number of dolphins rescued and put back to the river. Baseline Page 33 of 34 The World Bank Second Additional Financing for the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (P179051) reflects average from 1992- 2016 period. This indicator measures the transparency and accountability mechanisms established by the project so the target beneficiaries have trust in the process and are willing to Grievances registered related to delivery Progress PMO participate, and feel that of project benefits addressed (%) Report their grievances are attended to promptly. It is understood that local sensitivities and tensions will not allow grievance or redress mechanisms to be established in all projects. This indicator measures the ratio of people Structured survey of a Affected persons participating in participating in any form of Ad hoc sample of people PMO with specialized Annual consultations who consider their project consultation who questionnaire participating in service provider. suggestions have been taken into account consider that their consultations. suggestions have been taken into account. ME IO Table SPACE Page 34 of 34