The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA | Kenya | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2019 | Seq No: 8 | ARCHIVED on 11-Mar-2023 | ISR55216 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Labour and Social Protection, National Drought Managemnet Authority, Republic of Kenya Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 27-Nov-2018 Effectiveness Date: 31-Jan-2019 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 20-Sep-2021 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 27-Sep-2021 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2023 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2023 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To strengthen delivery systems for enhanced access to social and economic inclusion services and shock-responsive safety nets for poor and vulnerable households. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1 - Strengthening Social Protection Delivery Systems:(Cost $719.87 M) Component 2 - Increasing Access to Social and Economic Inclusion Interventions:(Cost $303.08 M) Component 3 - Improving the Shock Responsiveness of Safety Net System:(Cost $323.27 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions The implementing agencies for the Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (KSEIP)--the State Department for Social Protection and the National Drought Management Authority--continue to advance project implementation. The review of the project progress carried out in February 2023 noted progress in selected areas. Several Disbursement-Linked Results have been achieved by both implementing agencies who are preparing the evidence to share with the World Bank. The financial shortfall related to Performance based condition #6, as one of the Eligible Expenditure Programs supported by the project, may jeopardize achievement of project development objective related to shock-responsive safety net. The Government’s self-assessment report recommended an extension in the project closing date to allow more time to achieve the pending results. 3/11/2023 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Substantial Moderate Macroeconomic Moderate Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Substantial Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Strengthening social protection delivery systems IN01259533 ►Number of counties where the roll out of enhanced Single Registry covers at least 75 percent of targeted households (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Roll-out completed in An SR, linked to the MIS Roll-out completed in 4 16 non-HSNP of four cash transfer non-HSNP counties, Roll out completed in Value counties, pending programs, is functional pending third-party 39 non HSNP counties third-party validation of with links to the IPRS validation of data quality data quality Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 Data collection have been completed in four non-HSNP counties. The data collection has been launched for another 14 counties. A third-party quality assurance firm has been engaged for an independent verification of quality of the household data collected in two counties. Another quality assurance firm is Comments: being hired to cover the other two counties and those that will be covered by the data collection exercise in the coming month. Increasing Access to Social and Economic Inclusion Interventions IN01259534 3/11/2023 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) ►Number of households receiving nutrition-sensitive cash transfer (Number, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 600.00 10,000.00 8,600.00 23,500.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 02-Jan-2023 29-Dec-2023 Over 8 thousand households were in receipt of NICHE top-ups and nutrition counselling in January Comments: 2023. Additionally, more than five thousand are awaiting registration or approval. IN01259571 ►Number of sub-counties where economic inclusion model is initiated (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 To date, 7,162 participants have been receiving the Economic Inclusion interventions which constitutes the first pilot cohort of EIP. As of September 2022, 5,599 or 78% of the participants have received asset transfers to start businesses. 199 HSNP beneficiaries participating in EIP are to receive their asset transfer offline since CCTP MIS and HSNP MIS are yet to be linked. The consumption support has been Comments: significantly delayed because of slow progress in aligning the EIP payment with payrolls of CCTP and HSNP. Improving the shock-responsiveness of the Safety Net System IN01259535 ►Number of new regular HSNP households enrolled and paid for through the GoK’s budget in expansion counties (Number, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 32,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2019 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 The registration in the 4 expansion counties of Samburu, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa has covered 291,312 households out of an estimate of 333,618 households. Out of the households registered and entered in the HSNP MIS, 190,485 have had their bank accounts open. The process of account opening Comments: for the remaining households is ongoing. However, payment of the new beneficiaries has not started yet because of HSNP funding gap. IN01259572 ►Enhanced financing mechanism for HSNP scalability is implemented (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Emergency payments Emergency payments Emergency payments No formal financing plan are delayed for are delayed for made for 100% of Value in place households triggered in 4 households triggered households triggered HSNP counties in 4 HSNP counties in HSNP 8 counties Date 31-Dec-2018 31-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 In the FY21/22, the HSNP received KES4.1 billion in printed estimates against the required funding of Comments: KES5.3 billion. Unfortunately, the budget gap of KES1.2 billion was not covered. Consequently, 2 regular 3/11/2023 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) and 2 scale-up payment cycles of the FY21/22 have not been paid. In FY22/23, HSNP received KES5.1 billion. NT allowed NDMA to apply part of FY22/23 budget to meet previous year obligations. However, that will only widen the fiscal deficit that HSNP is projected to have this FY. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Strengthening Social Protection Delivery Systems IN01259574 ►IRI 1: Percentage of beneficiaries receiving payments through the new Inua Jamii Payment Mechanism for the Consolidated Cash Transfer Program (Percentage, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 85.00 92.00 100.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 31-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 Achieving of 100% target is expected by July 2023 using the ESR data for retargeting and or replacement Comments: of the CCTP beneficiaries. IN01259577 ►IRI 2: Integrated G&CM mechanism is strengthened and rolled out at decentralized level (Text, Custom, PBC) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target NSNP G&CM mechanism has been NSNP G&CM decentralized in all G&CM system for all four Enhanced G&CM mechanism has been counties. The Value NSNP programs piloted functional in all KSEIP decentralized in all enhancements on the in 20 sub-counties counties counties. G&CM to cater for KSEIP needs is yet to be done. Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 The nationwide rollout of the decentralized G&CM system has been completed. The Government enhances the scope of the G&CM to cover KSEIP activities with subsequent decentralized implementation. This entails: (i) revised G&CM procedures in the CCTP and HSNP operational manual Comments: detailing the procedures for receiving, recording and responding to cases; (ii) revised design and update of CCTP-MIS and HSNP MIS modules to record KSEIP and NSNP cases, and action taken; and (iii) the development of clear institutional roles and responsibilities for the intake and resolution of all cases. IN01259579 ►IRI 3: Beneficiary Outreach Strategy for NSNP and KSEIP rolled out (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target BOS for the CCTP rolled- Enhanced BOS rolled Value Roll-out pending Roll-out pending out in 20 sub- counties out in all 47 counties Date 31-Dec-2019 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 The eBOS rollout is planned from August 2023. Comments: IN01259581 ►Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (Number, Corporate) 3/11/2023 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 78,000.00 78,500.00 341,500.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 This indicator counts individual beneficiaries, both direct and indirect, of KSEIP-supported interventions i.e. HSNP beneficiaries in expansion counties as well as NICHE and economic inclusion beneficiaries. About 8.5 thousand households were enrolled in the NICHE program in ten sub-counties. Comments: Another 7.1 thousands have been enrolled in the Economic Inclusion pilot. HSNP enrollment in the expansion counties is yet to start pending allocation of budget. The indicator`s value is an estimate made using the methodology described below. IN01259583 Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Female (Number, Corporate Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 12,054.00 12,054.00 170,750.00 Component 2: Increasing Access to Social and Economic Inclusion Interventions IN01259575 ►IRI 5: Establishment and implementation of referral mechanism for the NHIF (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 30 percent of NSNP households enrolled in 90 percent of NSNP Value the NHIF but no 44% 44% beneficiaries enrolled systematic referral in the NHIF system in place Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 30-May-2022 29-Dec-2023 IN01259578 ►IRI 6: Number of households receiving package of nutrition-sensitive social protection services (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 600.00 10,000.00 8,600.00 23,500.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 02-Jan-2023 29-Dec-2023 About 8.6 thousand households were enrolled in NICHE and received their top-ups and nutrition counselling as of January 2023. Additionally, more than five thousand have been awaiting registration or Comments: approval. Component 3: Improving the Shock-Responsiveness of the Safety Net System IN01259573 ►IRI 7: Percentage of payments that are made on time to Payment Service Providers for transfer to regular HSNP beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 35.00 67.00 67.00 95.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 27-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 29-Dec-2023 3/11/2023 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) All regular payments were made on time up to September-October 2022 cycle. After that, the HSNP Comments: started to see interruptions in budget financing. IN01259576 ►IRI 8: Percentage of regular HSNP cash transfers financed by the GoK in the original four HSNP counties (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 64.00 100.00 67.00 100.00 Date 31-Dec-2018 27-Sep-2021 01-Jul-2022 31-Dec-2024 Because of HSNP budget deficit and delays in release of exchequer 2 cycles of regular CTs (4 months payments) ha FY21/22. Comments: IN01259580 ►IRI 9: HSNP registration exercise in original and expansion counties completed (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Registration completed Registration completed in in original counties and HSNP registry original counties and beneficiary lists updated and linked HSNP re-registration in beneficiary lists updated. updated. Registration with enhanced SR Value four original counties has Registration is completed is completed by over according to design commenced by 70% in the expansion 80% in the expansion and operating counties. Beneficiary lists counties. Beneficiary procedures are being prepared. lists are being updated. Date 31-Dec-2018 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 31-Dec-2024 After re-registration of beneficiaries in the counties of Turkana, Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit, NDMA updated the program beneficiary list and paid HSNP regular cash transfers to about 99,462 households in FY21/22. The registration in the 4 expansion counties of Samburu, Isiolo, Tana River and Comments: Garissa has covered 291,312 households out of an estimate of 333,618 households. Out of the households registered and entered in the HSNP MIS, 190,485 have had their bank accounts open. The process of account opening for the remaining households is ongoing. IN01259582 ►IRI 10: HSNP scalability strategy updated (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Updated HSNP Updated HSNP Updated HSNP HSNP scalability strategy Value scalability strategy in scalability strategy in scalability strategy in in place place place place Date 31-Dec-2018 27-Sep-2021 01-Feb-2023 29-Dec-2023 During MTR, NDMA submitted the revised scalability strategy. The revisions proposed are in line with previous discussions and modelling completed with the Bank technical support. The changes are Comments: expected to be broadly budget neutral based on the updated list of households registered in the existing HSNP counties. The implementation of the new scalability strategy is expected from July 2023. Performance-Based Conditions 3/11/2023 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) IN01259584 ►PBC 1 Number of counties where the roll out of enhanced Single Registry covers at least 75 percent of targeted households (Text, Outcome, 57,900,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2023 An SR, linked to the MIS of Roll-out completed in 4 Roll-out completed in 16 four cash transfer non-HSNP counties, non-HSNP counties, Value -- programs, is functional with pending third-party pending third-party links to the IPRS validation of data quality validation of data quality Date -- 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 -- IN01259585 ►PBC 2 IRI 1: Percentage of beneficiaries receiving payments through the new Inua Jamii Payment Mechanism for the Consolidated Cash Transfer Program (Percentage, Intermediate Outcome, 14,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2023 Value 0.00 85.00 92.00 -- Date -- 31-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 -- IN01259586 ►PBC 3 IRI 2: Integrated G&CM mechanism is strengthened and rolled out at decentralized level (Text, Intermediate Outcome, 20,000,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2023 NSNP G&CM mechanism NSNP G&CM has been decentralized in G&CM system for all four mechanism has been all counties. The Value NSNP programs piloted in -- decentralized in all enhancements on the 20 sub-counties counties. G&CM to cater for KSEIP needs is yet to be done. Date -- 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 -- IN01259587 ►PBC 4 Number of households receiving nutrition-sensitive cash transfer (Number, Intermediate Outcome, 34,000,000.00, 2.53%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2023 Value 600.00 10,000.00 8,600.00 -- Date -- 30-May-2022 02-Jan-2023 -- 3/11/2023 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) IN01259588 ►PBC 5 Number of new regular HSNP households enrolled and paid for through the GoK’s budget in expansion counties (Number, Outcome, 58,300,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2023 Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- Date -- 30-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 -- IN01259589 ►PBC 6 Enhanced financing mechanism for HSNP scalability is implemented (Text, Outcome, 71,500,000.00, 0.00%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2023 Emergency payments Emergency payments are No formal financing plan in are delayed for delayed for households Value -- place households triggered in 4 triggered in 4 HSNP HSNP counties counties Date -- 31-May-2022 01-Feb-2023 -- Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P164654 IDA-63480 Effective USD 250.00 250.00 0.00 72.49 158.78 31% P164654 TF-A9527 Effective USD 70.35 70.35 0.00 39.32 31.03 56% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P164654 IDA-63480 Effective 27-Nov-2018 31-Jan-2019 20-Mar-2019 31-Dec-2023 31-Dec-2023 P164654 TF-A9527 Effective 16-Jan-2019 31-Jan-2019 31-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2023 31-Dec-2023 Cumulative Disbursements 3/11/2023 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Project (P164654) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 3/11/2023 Page 9 of 9