Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00006134 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA 5908 ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR71.8 MILLION (US$100 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR THE LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT January 29, 2024 Agriculture and Food Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 2023) Currency Unit = CFA Francs (XAF) XAF592.00 = US$1.00 US$1.34 = SDR1.00 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Cheick Fantamady Kante Regional Director: Chakib Jenane Practice Manager: Abel Lufafa Fidele Honorine Yobo A Koue Epse Nhiomog, Nabil M. Task Team Leader(s): Chaherli ICR Main Contributor: Fidele Honorine Yobo A Koue Epse Nhiomog ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAHIS Cameroon Animal Health Information System CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CERC Contingency Emergency Response Component COVID-19 Corona Virus Disease-19 CPF Country Partnership Framework CSPM Commission spéciale de passation des marchés (Special tender board commission) Direction des Pâturages de l'Alimentation Animale et des Infrastructures d’Elevage (Pastoral DPAIE livestock, feeding and livestock infrastructure division) DSV Direction de la Santé Vétérinaire (Animal Health Division) E&S Environmental and Social EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EOP End Of Project ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FM Financial Management FMD Food and Mouth Disease GESP Growth and Employment Strategy Paper GoC Government of Cameroon GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism ICRR Implementation Completion and Results Report IDA International Development Association IP Indigenous Population IPP Indigenous Peoples’ Plan ISR Implementation Status Report LANAVET Laboratoire National Vétérinaire (National Veterinary Laboratory) - LFIs Local Financial Institutions LMP Livestock Master Plan LSPs Local Service Providers M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MG Matching Grant Ministere de l’Elevage, des Peches et Industries Animales (Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and MINEPIA Animal Industries) MPPR Management Plan for Pastoral Resources MTR Mid-Term Review NAIP/PNIA National Agriculture Investment Plan NDS National Development Strategy NPV Net Present Value ONVC Ordre National des Vétérinaires du Cameroun (National order of veterinary doctors) - PDO Project Development Objective PF Process Framework PIU Project Implementation Unit PO Producer Organization PPR Peste des Petits Ruminants (Small ruminants’ plague) PPs Productive Partnerships PRODEL Projet de développement de l’élevage (Livestock Development Project) RCUs Regional Coordination Units RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SP Sub-Project STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement TOC Theory of Change TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ........................................................................................................................... I I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 1 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................1 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) .......................................3 II. OUTCOME ...................................................................................................................... 6 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ...........................................................................................................6 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) .....................................................................................6 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................ 10 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ................................................................. 11 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ..................................................................................... 11 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 13 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 13 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 13 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 14 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 14 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 15 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 16 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 18 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 18 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 20 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 36 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 39 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 40 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 44 ANNEX 6. PROJECT MAPS .................................................................................................... 47 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P154908 Livestock Development Project Country Financing Instrument Cameroon Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Animal Industries Republic of Cameroon (MINEPIA) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The Project Development Objectives (PDO) are to improve productivity of selected livestock production systems and the commercialization of their products for the targeted beneficiaries, and to provide immediate and effective response in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency. i The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 100,000,000 97,794,769 96,632,644 IDA-59080 Total 100,000,000 97,794,769 96,632,644 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 8,252,000 0 0 Borrowing Country's Fin. 18,760,000 0 0 Intermediary/ies Municipalities of Borrowing 1,133,000 0 0 Country Local Beneficiaries 6,007,000 0 0 Total 34,152,000 0 0 Total Project Cost 134,152,000 97,794,769 96,632,644 KEY DATES FIN_TABLE_DAT Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 27-Oct-2016 13-Sep-2017 18-Jun-2020 31-Jan-2023 31-May-2023 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 01-Jun-2022 63.28 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 30-Dec-2022 82.86 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 31-May-2023 89.77 Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Modest ii The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 09-Feb-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.01 02 10-Aug-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.07 03 05-Mar-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 11.28 04 19-Jul-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 12.07 05 28-Jan-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 13.31 06 24-Jul-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 15.09 07 06-Feb-2020 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 21.05 08 13-Sep-2020 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 26.98 Moderately 09 06-Apr-2021 Moderately Unsatisfactory 36.03 Unsatisfactory 10 29-Jun-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 46.74 11 17-Dec-2021 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 62.47 12 14-Jun-2022 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 63.65 13 24-Feb-2023 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 83.70 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 82 Public Administration - Agriculture, Fishing & Forestry 20 Livestock 62 Social Protection 12 Social Protection 12 iii The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Industry, Trade and Services 6 Agricultural markets, commercialization and agri- 6 business Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 100 Jobs 100 Social Development and Protection 51 Social Protection 51 Human Development and Gender 53 Gender 16 Nutrition and Food Security 53 Food Security 53 Urban and Rural Development 55 Rural Development 55 Rural Markets 55 Environment and Natural Resource Management 65 Climate change 73 Mitigation 40 Adaptation 33 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Elisabeth Huybens Cheick Fantamady Kante Director: Juergen Voegele Chakib Jenane Practice Manager: Dina Umali-Deininger Abel Lufafa iv The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Fidele Honorine Yobo A Koue Myriam Mireille Veronique Task Team Leader(s): Epse Nhiomog, Nabil M. Chaudron Chaherli Fidele Honorine Yobo A Koue ICR Contributing Author: Epse Nhiomog v The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At the time of appraisal, Cameroon was characterized by lagging social indicators and persistently high poverty rates. Despite the relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the decade prior to project appraisal, the pace of economic growth was not enough to drive sustainable development, poverty reduction, or shared prosperity1. Poverty incidence which stood at 38 percent at the national level, was concentrated in rural areas (57 percent) and in the North and Far North regions2. Together these areas comprised 90 percent of all the poor in the country. Cameroon had made only limited progress on achieving the Millennium Development Goals and ranked 153 rd out of the 188 countries in the 2014 Human Development Index. 2. To foster inclusive growth, the Government of Cameroon (GoC) had identified livestock as one of the priority sectors. In its efforts to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on extractives, the Government through its National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP), had targeted a 9.3 percent growth of the livestock sector between 2014 and 2020. The objectives of the NAIP were to improve productivity and competitiveness of its different segments, foster a more commercial orientation, protect pastureland, and attract young entrepreneurs into the sector. 3. The Government of Cameroon (GoC) had undertaken several initiatives, but significant challenges persisted, affecting the livestock sector. There were several programs implemented to address the constraints affecting the livestock sector, however, significant gaps persisted in terms of: (i) access and delivery of livestock services; (ii) access to markets and resilience, especially for pastoral communities; and (iii) value chain organization and financing. Intervention in these areas required significant resources, beyond the medium-term budget outlay that was generally available for the sector and therefore, the GoC sought World Bank (Bank) financing to support which was approved by the Board in 2016. The objectives were to raise sector productivity and commercialization that would improve incomes, reduce inequality, and deliver jobs in line with the priorities laid out in the GoC ‘s Growth and Employment Strategy (2009-2019). These were also aligned with the Focus Area 1 “addressing multiple poverty traps in rural areas” of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF). Theory of Change (Results Chain) 4. The Project was designed to improve productivity of selected livestock production systems and the commercialization of their products. This was expected to be accomplished through: (i) improving access and delivery of livestock services; (ii) improving productivity, access to markets, and resilience for pastoral communities; and (iii) support to livestock value chains development. A Theory of Change (TOC) was not developed at appraisal as it was not mandatory, but the one below is proposed for the purpose of the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICRR). 1 Project appraisal document, October 2016. 2 Mainly due to high levels of insecurity. 1 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 5. The PDO as stated in the legal agreement was “to improve productivity of selected livestock production systems and the commercialization of their products for the targeted beneficiaries, and to provide immediate and effective response in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency”. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 6. The project had two expected outcomes, measured by four main indicators. The expected outcomes were: (i) increased productivity and (ii) improved commercialization. Four main indicators proposed to measure the PDO were: (i) Productivity of targeted species by direct beneficiaries (cattle, sheep and goat, poultry, pig, and bees); (ii) Incremental sales in targeted value chains (aggregated over all the targeted value chains); (iii) Farmers reached with agricultural assets or services (of which female and youth); and (iv) Farmers adopting improved agricultural technology (of which female and youth). 2 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Components At appraisal, the project was designed with the following four components: 7. Component 1: Improvement of livestock services access and delivery (appraisal: US$26.63 million IDA; actual: US$22 million). Component 1 aimed to improve access to key inputs and services for livestock producers, especially animal health services, improved genetic material and high-quality inputs. Sub-component 1.1: Access to animal health services aimed to improve disease surveillance and service delivery capacity of veterinary services; Sub-component 1.2: Access to high quality inputs aimed to increase availability of improved animal genetic resources, feed and fodder; Sub-component 1.3: Institutional support, capacity building and communication aimed to strengthen staff capacity to carry out its core responsibilities; and Sub-component 1.4: Contingency emergency response to develop a contingency emergency response plan, to increase preparedness in the event of a crisis affecting the livestock sector. 8. Component 2: Improvement of pastoral productivity, access to markets, and resilience of pastoral communities (appraisal: US$25.98 million IDA; actual: US$22 million). Component 2 aimed at increasing the contribution of pastoral areas to the domestic supply of meat (especially for urban markets) while upgrading livestock production systems (cattle, small ruminants, poultry) for poor and conflict- affected communities. Sub-component 2.1: Support to animal production practices and community-based management of pastoral areas aimed to improve management of pastoral and animal resources; Sub- component 2.2: Support to commercialization and marketing of pastoral livestock products aimed to improve access to market information and coordination between management of markets and pastoralists; and Sub-component 2.3: Improving the resilience of poor and conflict-affected communities aimed to provide productive safety nets to the poorest and vulnerable communities in the Northern regions. 9. Component 3: Support to livestock value chain development (appraisal: US$64.67 million IDA; actual US$41 million). Component 3 aimed to support the development of pig, poultry, beef, goat, sheep, milk, and honey production value chains. Sub-component 3.1: Establishment of Productive Partnerships aimed to establish and operationalize partnerships between producers and off-takers Sub-component 3.2: Financing of sub-projects for Producer Organizations (POs) aimed to increase the productivity and production capacity of POs by financing selected business plans through a matching grant (MG) mechanism with contribution from the POs, and participation of a financial institution. Grant share was capped at 60 percent, with a ceiling of US$150,000 per subproject. 10. Component 4: Project coordination, management, communication, and monitoring (appraisal: US$16.87 million of which US$12 million IDA; actual US$14 million). Component 4 supported implementation of the project activities. Through this component the Project aimed to build capacity to ensure effective coordination, planning, monitoring, and implementation of the project along with efficient use of resources. The component also supported project evaluation and impact on beneficiaries, communications with public and private stakeholders, and engaging an Environmental and Social expert to ensure coordination, monitoring, and implementation of safeguard instruments under the Project cross all components. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) 3 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 11. The PDO remained unchanged during the life of the project. However, the target for the outcome indicator “Farmers reached with agricultural assets or services” was increased, from 140,000 to 360,000 after the Mid-Term Review (MTR) in June 2020 to include those benefitting from animal vaccinations after the initial successful vaccination campaign against small ruminants’ plague. Revised PDO Indicators 12. At MTR, several changes were made to PDO indicator 1- “productivity of targeted species by direct beneficiaries”. First, its sub-indicator – “ruminants mortality rate” was modified and disaggregated by ruminant type (i.e., small and large ruminants). As a result, two indicators “small ruminants’ mortality rate” and “mortality rate in cattle under 6 months in pastoral areas” were added to the results framework. This was done to disaggregate the impacts of the small ruminants’ plague (PPR) vaccination campaign and improvements in pastoral areas management through Management Plan for Pastoral Resources (MPPRs). Second, another sub-indicator – “increase in the number of eggs produced per laying hen in 60 weeks” to capture productivity of layers. Third, changes were made to the other sub-indicators as specified in Table 1 below, to measure the expected productivity gains in increments (percent) rather than in absolute numbers to account for the heterogeneity in scale and productivity levels of the POs. Table 1: Revisions to PDO indicator 1 Original sub-indicator/unit of measurement Revised sub-indicator/ unit of measurement Broiler (kg of live weight per m2 per year) - kilogram Increase in the quantity of live weight produced in 45 days per m 2 per flock - percentage Breeding pigs weanlings per sow per year - number Increase in the number of weanlings per sow per year - percentage Dairy cattle (liters of milk per cow per lactation period) - Increase in the number of liters of milk produced per cow per year - percentage liters Honey per beehive per year - kilogram Increase in the quantity of honey produced per beehive per year - percentage Revised Components 13. At MTR, the following changes were made to project components based on lessons learned from implementation3. a) Component 1: Installation of a solar energy plant at the National Veterinary Laboratory (LANAVET) worth US$2.2 million was added to increase production capacity for vaccinations. Additionally, to improve understanding of the functioning of livestock supply chains and identify future investment needs, a diagnosis of livestock supply chains estimated at US$350,000 was added to Component 1 activities. b) Component 2: The share of co-financing under Component 2.2 was reduced from 10 to 5 percent due to limited capacity of communes to finance their livestock related local development plans. 3 Mid-term review aide-memoire. 4 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) c) Component 3: Due to limited financial capacity of POs, “small”4 subprojects (SPs) with a maximum of US$35,000 per SP were introduced to be more inclusive. In addition, the MG ceiling for these small SPs was raised from 60 percent to 90 percent of the total SP cost. Similarly, based on the expressed needs and capacity of larger POs, a limited number of SPs requiring higher levels of investments, up to a maximum of US$625,000 per SP were included. For these, the MG ceiling was maintained at 60 percent of total SP cost. This helped in developing partnerships as these large SPs mostly consisted of processors, required to establish partnerships with smaller-scale producers as input providers. Other Changes 14. Project costs and reallocation of credit proceeds: Changes discussed above led to changes in costs. Savings from Component 1 were reallocated towards installing the solar energy panels at the LANAVET. However, the solar panels were eventually not installed due to procurement delays. Resources from cancellation of activities in Component 2 (i.e., community-based pastoral resources management plans which could not be completed, and the market information activity) were reallocated to Component 3 to enable financing of an increased number of sub-projects and to Component 4 for increased technical support to sub-projects. These changes are summarized in Table 2 below. Table 2: Revisions to Project costs Project component Cost at appraisal Revised cost (US$ million) (US$ million) Improvement of Livestock Services Access and Delivery 24.00 23.00 Improvement of Pastoral Productivity, Access to Markets, and Resilience of Pastoral 24.00 22.00 Communities Support to Livestock Value Chains Development 40.00 41.00 Project Coordination, management, Communication and Monitoring 12.00 14.00 Total 100.00 100.00 15. Closing date extension: On December 29, 2022 the Project closing date was extended from January 31, 2023 to May 31, 2023 to allow completion of ongoing activities, including: (i) the importation of equipment for POs, such as livestock feed production plants, fresh milk processing units, pork slaughtering and sausage making equipment, hatcheries, and parent chicks; and (ii) works in several local councils including such as demarcation of cattle tracks, solar pumped water infrastructures, zoo sanitary intervention parks, and livestock markets. 16. Cancellation of credit proceeds: On May 31, 2023, a partial cancellation of approximately SDR 1,656,050.95 in project proceeds initially allocated to Project activities that would not be completed by the closing date was approved. These activities included the solarization of the National Veterinary Laboratory (LANAVET), the importation of improved animal breeds for the pig value chain, the elaboration of a Livestock Master Plan (LMP), and some elements of a limited number of business plans which relied on the 4“Small” SPs refer to sub-projects from producers in poorer areas with limited financial capacity and needs. These producers were at risk of being excluded from the opportunity if the original design was maintained. 5 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) importation of equipment - which had been delayed because of issues in global supply chains, and some of the pastoral infrastructure which could not be completed due to contracting delays. 17. As part of the MTR, changes were made to some intermediate level indicators. First the target for post-vaccinal seroprevalence of small ruminant plague indicator was revised upwards (from 45 to 70 percent) to bring it to a number consistent with Cameroon’s commitment to eradicate PPR (as part the PPR Global Eradication Program), and to increase the Project ambition as the post vaccinal survey indicated that the first vaccination campaign had nearly achieved the initial target. Similarly, the target for the indicator on “business plans financed by the project” was increased from 200 to 500 mainly because of the design change – as implemented at MTR - to allow financing of smaller SPs which required less financing. Second, the indicator for the number of producers who received improved genetic material was reformulated to “quantity of improved genetic material (animal and vegetal) acquired and/or produced by the livestock stations and the project beneficiaries and delivered to end-users”. This revision was to distinguish between the types of material received, which was not the case previously where recipients of animals, animal seed and plant seed were reported together. 18. The rationale for the changes described above included: i) changes to the Results Framework to accommodate additional beneficiaries, and varying scales of POs joining the Project; ii) changes to the components to incorporate updated client priorities for specific activities; and iii) changes to the size and support provided to the community-based plans and subprojects to incorporate beneficiary feedback. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating Rating: High 19. The Project objectives remain valid today. The objectives are consistent with the current Cameroon Country Partnership Framework (CPF 2017-2021)5. Specifically, it aligns with Objective 1.1 “increase productivity and access to markets in the agriculture and livestock sectors” under Focus Area 1 “addressing multiple poverty traps in rural areas” (with focus on the northern regions). It is also consistent with the GoC’s current priorities under the structural transformation pillar of the National Development Strategy (NDS30), which aims to promote further development of the livestock sector, including promotion of livestock value chains, facilitation of access to inputs, and structuring and strengthening of the capacities of actors in the sector. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 20. The Project sought to (i) improve productivity of selected livestock production systems, (ii) the commercialization of their products for the targeted beneficiaries, and (iii) to provide immediate and effective response in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency. The Project Contingency Emergency 5 This is the most recent CPF, however a new CPF is currently under preparation. 6 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Response Component (CERC) was not triggered, so no achievements are reported for the third element of the PDO. 21. We examine Project efficacy by examining successful implementation of key Project activities, which in line with the TOC should lead to the achievement of the Project outcomes. We then look at the achievement of the Project outcomes which directly measures the Project objectives. Table 3 shows achievement for the two PDO elements (improve productivity of selected livestock production systems, and commercialization of their products for the targeted beneficiaries) as assessed by level of attainment of the relevant indicator targets. In sum, targets for eight of the ten indicators were exceeded and the Project therefore achieved its objective as measured by the indicators6. The discussion in this section draws from multiple sources of information including the impact evaluation, Government of Cameroon (GoC) Completion Report, Implementation Status Reports (ISRs), Aide Memoires, and Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) data. Table 3: Achievement of PDO Indicator Targets Indicator name Target Achieved Achievement (percent) Outcome: Improve productivity of selected livestock production systems Small ruminants’ mortality rate (percent) 12 11.5 104 Mortality rate in cattle under 6 months in pastoral areas (percent) 15 9.1 165 Broiler: Increase in the quantity of live weight produced in 45 days per m 2 per flock (percent) 25 76 304 Egg production: increase in the number of eggs produced per laying hen in 60 weeks (percent) 10 0 -100 Breeding pig: Increase in the number of weanlings per sow per year (percent) 25 80 320 Dairy cattle: Increase in the number of liters of milk produced per cow per year (percent) 150 527 351 Honey: Increase in the quantity of honey produced per beehive per year (percent) 20 20 100 Outcome: Commercialization of products for the targeted beneficiaries Incremental sales in targeted value chains across value chains (percent) 25 29 116 Output indicators: Contributing to both outcomes Farmers reached with agricultural assets or services (number, thousands) 360 369 103 Farmers adopting improved agricultural technology (number, thousands) 72 38 53 22. Overall to achieve these objectives, 369,000 farmers were reached with agricultural assets or services against the target of 360,000. Of this around 320,000 farmers were reached for vaccination, and about 43,000 farmers were beneficiaries under components 2 and 3. The number of farmers adopting an improved technology was 38,000. While this number is significantly lower than the target of 72,000, it is worth noting that this number was too ambitious as overall adoption rate among the beneficiaries reached under components 2 and 3 is very high around 90 percent. Objective 1: Improving productivity of selected production systems. indicator on increase sales. The ICR team reviewed 6 All the yield values reported utilize data from the Project M&E, except for the results from both the third-party evaluation and the M&E data and chose to primarily rely on the latter. It is important to note that these estimates may differ in absolute terms from that of the evaluators and PIU calculations as they are based on data as of August 2023 covering a larger sample size which includes all POs that had completed the implementation of their business plans and entered production. The estimates are based on difference in yields between the production cycle 2022 and 2020. The reason for utilizing the evaluators results for sales however was because the Project M&E reported only sales values, while the third-party evaluation report provided disaggregated volume. Hence the team considered it to be more reliable. 7 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) 23. Table 3 indicates that productivity improvement indicators for all value chains except eggs were either met or exceeded. The indicators measuring productivity included decrease in mortality and an increase in yields for five key commodities7 on which Project activities were focused. The Project focused its support on cattle (beef and dairy), small ruminants, poultry (broilers and layers), pigs, and apiculture. A wide range of activities was designed with the objective of increasing productivity, which included institutional capacity building (level of government institutions and POs), technical support, access to high quality inputs and financing through MGs for PO business plans. 24. The Project conducted three successful vaccination campaigns against the small ruminant plague, which resulted in a vaccination rate of 74 percent of the target livestock population, against a baseline of 36 percent (6.3 million small ruminants). It also financed construction of 206 (against a target of 160) veterinary parks, from where livestock producers were able to access animal health services for their herds, supported 100 veterinarians to provide services in peri-urban and rural areas, and vaccinated 1,700 cattle against Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). 25. The Project used a community-led process, financing 30 pastoral management plans and establishing 142 management committees to achieve the sustainable management of 17,475 ha of pasture – an almost six-fold achievement compared to an end of project (EOP) target of 3,000 ha. The key activities contributing to the sustainable management of these pasture lands was financing 208 solar- powered water points, making available 856 tons of improved fodder seeds to beneficiaries and financing 720 training days on improved production practices and intensification of pastoral systems. The Project also provided 1,243 tons of improved bovine genetic material to the management committees and supported the construction of 1,124 km of tracks8 (against a target of 1010 km) to facilitate livestock mobility - a key strategy relied upon by pastoralists to access both feed and water for their stock especially in the drier areas. 26. The Project also contributed to productivity through investments in subprojects within the cattle, dairy, poultry (broilers and layers) and honey value chains, which were prioritized by the Project. A total of 507 subprojects/business plans were selected and financed, infrastructure, equipment, animals, inputs and training, with the grant funds primarily (53 percent of the total) going towards infrastructure and equipment investments. These funds translated into a variety of investments across the value chains; including modernizing and building of animal housing (for e.g. 490 sheds were built for poultry farmers), acquiring equipment (e.g. cages were acquired for 17 of the POs that were investing in broiler production, milk processing equipment for dairy POs), and distribution of improved breeds of animals and genetic material (e.g. provision of 495 improved breeds of dairy animals, 468 improved breeds of pigs, 2,600 more productive “Kenyan” hives). All these activities were supported with intensive technical training, 3 percent of the total of the grant financing went towards technical assistance. 27. The main productivity indicator for broiler chickens was the amount of live broiler weight produced in 45 days per m2 per flock, which showed an average increase of 76 percent (from 37 to 65 kg/m 2/year) 7 The Project team calculated these results using values from 2020 as a baseline since no activities with regards to POs had started before that. Similarly values from 2022 were used as endline for all POs that had completed implementation of business plans for consistency. 8 A cattle track is a route formed by the treading of herds to ease safe movements of cows from farms to grazing land, water points or markets. These routes are distinctly recognized and can be demarcated by a variety of materials such as trees, poles, etc. 8 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) among beneficiaries. For laying hens the main indicator measured was the number of eggs produced in 60 weeks, which did not show an increase in productivity and averaged 158 eggs/chicken/60weeks. 28. Productivity for cattle and small ruminants was measured in terms of decreased mortality. The combined impact of project activities resulted in mortality rates for small ruminants’ and cattle under 6 months declining from 15.7 to 11.5 percent and 26.90 to 9.1 percent, respectively. Both outcomes substantially exceeding the set targets9. Although data on morbidity was not collected, it was the general observation of beneficiaries that their stock experienced less disease episodes- also key to increased productivity. In the case of dairy cattle, the productivity indicator was milk yields which saw a substantial increase of 527 percent (from 205 to 1286 liter/cow/year) which was higher than the targeted increase of 150 percent. This can be primarily attributed to improved breeds, better inputs, and animal health. 29. In the case of pork producing POs, the productivity indicator was piglets weaned per sow per year. Through interventions in infrastructure for maternity and weanling housing, and specific equipment for feeding pigs, beneficiaries saw an increase of 80 percent (from 10 to 18 piglets/sow/year). Finally in the case of honey POs, the productivity indicator was kilograms of honey produced from each hiver per year, which increased by 20 percent (from 15 to 18 kg/hive/year) among beneficiaries. Objective 2: Enhancing commercialization of livestock products from selected value chains. 30. The key indicator measuring commercialization was an increase in sales in the targeted value chains, the target of which was exceeded. The disaggregation with regards to each value chain is provided in Table 4 with poultry and eggs showing the highest increase in sales volume of 40 and 43 percent respectively with an average increase in sales of 29 percent10,11. The key activities designed to enhance commercialization included technical training of producer organizations on identifying and developing market linkages, and enhancing administrative capacity, providing MGs to POs to finance activities identified in their business plans and financing investments in market platforms and key infrastructure related to post-harvest processing and marketing. Table 4: Incremental sales volume Value Chain Incremental sales volume (percent) Beef 9 Dairy 25 Poultry 40 Eggs 43 Average 29 Source: Project Impact Evaluation Report 31. Key community-based investments to improve commercialization included creation of 10 inclusive market management platforms in 26 of the 30 municipalities, which were essentially committees formed with technical support of the Project that coordinated sales arrangements, and financing of commercial infrastructure specifically eight livestock markets and 10 slaughterhouses to improve market access and linkages. These investments led to the increased security of animals being sold, and improved traceability 9 These numbers are based on the annual surveys carried out after each vaccination campaign by the project. 10 Data on quantities of livestock products supplied before and after the PPs was collected only for a limited set of value chains. 11 A possible reason for this difference that emerged during interviews with beneficiaries was that demand for cattle beef is cyclical and that beneficiaries entered production when demand for cattle for beef was relatively low. 9 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) of financial transactions between cattle dealers both of which in turn led to increased efficiency of sales transactions. 32. A key Project activity designed to enhance commercialization was the establishment of 25 Productive Partnerships (PPs) to link producers to off-takers. These PPs aimed to reduce the transaction cost of doing business by directly linking producers with off-takers and entering into agreements which outlined product quality, quantity to be supplied, logistics modalities, payment mechanism, and technical support from the off-takers. Off-takers were larger buyers such as supermarkets, large agro-processors, and hotels. At the time of this ICR, 119 of the 507 POs whose plans were approved at had begun operations and sales to off-takers as part of these PPs. For the remaining POs sales contracts (with the quantity, quality and timing of sales identified) had been negotiated and signed, but actual sales were yet to begin. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 33. Overall efficacy is Substantial as the Project almost fully met its objectives as measured by the outcome indicators. C. EFFICIENCY 34. Assessment of Efficiency and Rating. The Project’s overall efficiency is rated Substantial due to high economic returns on the Project’s activities and administrative efficiency, especially in the light of the complex and fragile environment under which the project was implemented. Economic Return 35. A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was undertaken for the ICR based on the available data and considering the approach at the project appraisal. The ICR CBA has been performed in a probabilistic fashion to reflect uncertainties on key input variables until the end of the considered economic time horizon (25 years). The estimate of the mean net present value (NPV) of the investment is US$160 million and that of the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) is 20.6 percent. These results are slightly better than those estimated at appraisal stage – see table below. The difference between appraisal and ICR CBA stems from the somewhat conservative assumptions taken at appraisal concerning the likelihood of business failure (Component 3). Economic metric Appraisal ICR NPV (US$ m) 122.9 160.0 EIRR (percent) 17.9 20.6 Administrative Efficiency 36. At appraisal, the Project operating costs were estimated at 12 percent of the budget. This included, project management (financial and procurement), monitoring and evaluation, knowledge generation and management, communication and follow-up of mitigation measures concerning safeguards. At closing, operating costs were 13.6 percent of the overall Project costs,12 and the financial execution rate of the 12 Government completion report. 10 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Project resources was 99.7 percent. While the Project expended slightly more than was planned at appraisal in administrative costs, this proportion is well in line with other projects in the country. 37. There were delays in mobilization of key personnel resulting in this slightly increased cost. However, strong collaboration and capacity building of ministry departments, community organizations and other stakeholders at the community-level made it possible to put in place investments that corresponded to the needs of the beneficiaries. 38. While the Project experienced some initial delays in procurement, it managed to achieve most of the activities outlined in the procurement plan. The delays in procurement can at least partly be attributed due to the global supply chain issues due to the impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Additionally, Project implementation modality required POs to procure directly following Project guidelines. While this caused delays due to the learning curve involved, it contributed to the medium- term goal of developing institutional capacity of the POs. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 39. Overall outcome is rated Satisfactory. This rating is based on High relevance for the PDO and Substantial ratings for both Efficacy and Efficiency. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS Gender 40. Assessments at appraisal indicated that the livestock sector is influenced by a patriarchal organization that can exclude women from factors of production. Cognizant of this, the Project sought to close this gender gap and reached more than 65,000 women, representing 17 percent of the direct beneficiaries with Project support. More specifically, 54,371 women benefitted from vaccination services of their small ruminants, 4,612 women were involved in sustainable management of pastoral resources, while 1988 female-headed vulnerable households were supported with small ruminants as productive assets. Finally, 2,148 women (27 percent) and 3,103 youths (39 percent) benefitted from sub-project financing under the MGs. Institutional Strengthening 41. The Project strengthened the capacity of several national public institutions, community-level administrative organizations, umbrella POs and business advisory service providers. This contributed towards: (i) collection, analysis and publication of data on livestock products supply and demand by the Studies, Planning, Cooperation and Statistics division of the Ministry of Livestock to collect data on; (ii) assessment of the fodder balance for feeding of cattle and ruminant feeding during dry season in the northern regions on a yearly basis by the division of pasture management, animal feed and livestock infrastructure (DPAIE); (iii) production of weekly information bulletins on epidemiological surveillance of animal and zoonotic diseases through the Cameroon Animal Health Information System (CAHIS), for the Animal Health Services Division (DSV); (iv) the preparation of a national genetic improvement strategy that has enabled the rehabilitation, fencing and equipment of three livestock breeding stations at Wakwa, Kounden and Louguerre; (v) consistent production of vaccines and animal drugs by the national veterinary laboratory (LANAVET); (vi) functional umbrella organizations in honey, milk, and cattle value chains; and (vii) improved dialogue between stakeholders in the poultry sector and within the National Order of Veterinary Doctors (ONVC). 11 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 42. At the close of the project, 1,049 agreements were signed between Local Financial Institutions (LFIs), POs, and the Project through which US$13.4 million was mobilized. As part of the Project design, POs were encouraged to secure at least 10 percent of the financing for their business plans from LFIs, which were also part of the committee that reviewed and selected successful business plans for financing through the Project. The effective mobilization of almost a third of total funding from the private sector is a remarkable achievement and attests to a strong process of ownership, commitment and accountability of operators involved in this innovative mechanism in the Cameroonian context. This design feature of the project led to increased awareness of the profitability of livestock operations for the LFIs and helped familiarize producers with the requirements and processes for securing credit from banks. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 43. Poverty reduction and shared prosperity were inherent in the initial design of the Project and some of the modifications made during the life of the Project. Specifically, the Project i) targeted beneficiaries in the north of the country where rural poverty is concentrated; ii) supported extremely poor and vulnerable households through the provision of productive assets to improve their resilience to shocks and increase their income generation capacity; and iii) included smaller subprojects with an increase in co-financing for the Project from 60-90 percent to include POs with poorer farmers. 44. The relatively poorer areas in the north were given priority as 67.9 percent of all beneficiaries, 90 percent of infrastructure projects, and 30 percent of veterinary doctors installed were in the Adamawa, North and Extreme North regions. The modification of the subproject mechanism at MTR resulted in 252 of the subprojects being classified as microprojects and eventually receiving a total funding of US$7.48 million. The Project provided productive assets worth US$4.48 million to 9,500 vulnerable and poor households, exceeding the 6,800 target. Another aspect of the Project’s contribution towards these goals was through its focus on indigenous communities which tended to be more socio-economically vulnerable. Community plans created by indigenous communities (with technical support from the Project) supported 1,083 indigenous people and included activities to increase capacity of sedentary indigenous people to engage in livestock and associated livestock commercial activities. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 45. Positive spillovers frequently highlighted by beneficiaries were the health benefits and time savings due to improved access to water. Under Component 2 and 3, infrastructure developed often included solar powered tube wells to improve access to water. As the water source for domestic use and animal use was the same, this was often contaminated, resulting in a higher frequency of diseases. The Project infrastructure interventions provided access to ground water which reduced the time spent on water collection and differentiated water sources for animals and domestic use. This resulted in improved health, and saved time and labor that could be deployed on other household livelihood activities 13. 13 https://www.fao.org/gleam/resources/en/ 12 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 46. Project design was acknowledged as complex and novel for the context and intensive implementation support was incorporated at design, however this remained a critical issue during implementation. Considering the context, the Project design included intensive technical assistance as a key component for implementing the MGs. Support was provided to POs through local service providers (LSPs)and to LFIs who had limited exposure to the livestock sector at the time of design and were unfamiliar with the MG modality. However, challenges remained. For example, while technical support was provided to beneficiaries of MGs to procure services and equipment using the Bank guidelines, the steep learning curve, for this novel activity for POs, resulted in significant delays. 47. Project adopted a participatory and inclusive approach at design: For the development and implementation of the pastoral management plans an inclusive and participatory approach was adopted to ensure buy-in of all stakeholders and sustainability of the infrastructure investments that were going to be made under the project. Special attention was paid to ensure inclusiveness of the indigenous populations, conflict affected households in the North and Far North regions, women, and youth. Finally, the Project conducted extensive stakeholder consultations at design to try and contextualize Project design and ensure that beneficiary targeting was appropriate. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION (a) Factors subject to the control government and/or implementing entities 48. The Project faced delays due to the limited technical and institutional capacity of government and Project Implementation Unit (PIU). Project effectiveness was obtained one year after approval due to slow administrative processes. Considerable delay was witnessed in setting the PIU as there were challenges in identifying key experts with the right technical and management skillset. Moreover, frequent changes in procurement committee members and delays in appointing new members disrupted the functioning of the committee throughout the duration of the Project. The development of M&E tools at the procurement level took more than 2 years after Project effectiveness and updating of data in the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) remained a challenge. Similarly, it took almost a year to replace the administrative and finance specialist, which led to persisting irregularities in financial management (FM) relating to long outstanding advances, irregular accounts analyses and insufficiencies in advance justification. However, once these initial challenges were addressed and Project implementation structures were put in place they performed as envisaged, ensuring a smooth coordination of all participating entities. 49. The mobilization of government counterpart funds was low and irregular throughout the project. This caused irregularities in the payment of allowances to members of the Special Tender Board Commission (CSPM) and various evaluation committees that led to frequent extensions of processing times and in turn delays in implementation of activities. (b) Factors subject to World Bank control 13 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) 50. COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank team continued to supervise the project in an appropriate manner during the COVID-19 period, including through very regular audio and video conversations with the PIU and complete online work during two supervision missions that happened at the height of the pandemic when travel was not allowed. 51. Challenges in design were addressed at MTR: During the MTR in 2020, the Bank together with the Government agreed to restructure the Project to modify design features related to MGs to producer associations and councils, to accommodate beneficiary feedback. The primary achievement of this accommodation was inclusion of smaller-scale POs. (c) Factors outside the control of government and/or implementing entities 52. COVID-19 prevented or delayed beneficiaries from accessing opportunities offered by the Project. The COVID-19 pandemic greatly disrupted implementation of beneficiaries’ activities, especially POs importing equipment as part of their business plans. The delays impacted the quality of awards and made contract management difficult, resulting in longer lead times and higher input import costs. 53. African Swine fever: The outbreak of African swine fever led to restrictions on the movement of pigs while the outbreak of avian flu since 2021 in European countries producing fertilized eggs resulted in rationing the quantity of inputs in the sector in Cameroon, which impacted on the implementation of the various related business plans. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 54. The monitoring plan was comprehensive but had gaps at design. At the time of appraisal, the M&E framework included a baseline, midline, and endline survey, along with several monitoring reports structured around the different components of the Project. The monitoring design included most relevant indicators to track implementation. The Management Information System (MIS) was comprehensive, including a data platform created for each component. However, a key indicator for commercialization - quantity of output sold was not included in the monitoring plan. This was eventually captured by the third- party evaluators, but it relied on recall data. 55. The monitoring approach as originally envisioned was decentralized but extremely ambitious. Originally the M&E team had planned to physically visit and follow-up with each of the POs and community programs on a regular basis. However, this proved to be difficult as the scale of the program increased, and the team had to revise its plans and rely on self-reported data from beneficiaries and less frequent validation visits. M&E Implementation 56. The M&E implementation was mostly effective, and the team comprised of qualified staff at the national as well as the decentralized regional levels. Data was collected at the regional level and entered in the system for validation and processing by the national M&E unit. The management of information and data was done through an Integrated M&E System to ease planning and decision making based on 14 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) data-driven progress reporting. The Results Framework was modified to some extent. Bi-annual reviews, evaluation of the performance of Regional Coordination Units (RCUs), and evaluation by the recipients were also carried out as planned. 57. Yearly surveys assessed small ruminant vaccination outcomes, while implementation of community projects in council pastoral resource management plans was monitored through LSP’s reports and project team field visits. A baseline and endline were conducted as planned, there were no midline due to implementation delays. M&E Utilization 58. The M&E system was not used to its potential and focused primarily on tracking activity and output data. The M&E team rigorously tracked the livestock service outreach to producers and communities, as well as the pipeline of approved projects and stages of implementation which were very helpful in identifying bottlenecks and expediting the implementation of the sub-projects. Data on key outcome indicators was monitored but not systematically cross-validated for accuracy. A major reason for this was that by the time some POs were entering production, the Project had closed which limited the ability of the team to utilize outcome data. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 59. The overall rating of M&E quality is Modest. The M&E system provided a mechanism to monitor project implementation and for the most part informed the results indicators. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE B.1 Social compliance 60. At Project closing social performance was rated Moderately Satisfactory and with regards to compliance to OP 4.12; Satisfactory and compliance to OP 4.10; Moderately Satisfactory. For OP 4.12, the main safeguards instruments implemented included a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) and a Process Framework (PF). Land acquisition for pastoral infrastructure was achieved through voluntary land donations. Given that the project led to restrictions on land use in some cattle rearing zones, site specific natural resource management plans were prepared and implemented in the 30 targeted communes. 61. OP 4.10 was triggered given that the Project activities targeted areas with indigenous people. Three site specific indigenous people’s plans (IPP) were prepared and successfully implemented, despite challenges including limited PIU capacity, physical remoteness, and relative novelty of livestock activities. 62. Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM): The project GRM had a slow start but once operational was effective in handling complaints from project stakeholders including livestock communities and indigenous people. B.2 Environmental compliance 63. The environmental safeguard policies triggered were (i) Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01); (ii) Pest Management (OP 4.09); (iii) Natural habitats (OP/BP 4.04); (iv) Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11); and (v) Forests (OP/BP 4.36). At closing, the Project's environmental performance was rated as Satisfactory. Screenings were carried out in line with the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) guidelines. The Project placed particular emphasis on implementing the measures 15 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) recommended in the Environmental and Social Clause books and the Environmental and Social Impact Notices, with the regular production and archiving of quarterly activity reports and, the systematic completion of an environmental monitoring diary by POs. B.3 Fiduciary compliance 64. Performance in Procurement is overall rated Moderately Satisfactory . There were no cases of mis- procurement. Documentation and decisions were of moderate quality, and delivery times remained long. Moderate supervision or corrections were needed by the Bank. Agreed procurement risk mitigation measures were implemented, and substantiated complaints received from bidders and addressed. Based on project procurement reviews, updating STEP remained a challenge throughout because of the lack of documents related to the contract management phase. The Project design required POs and Councils to take the lead in establishing and conducting their procurement processes which helped strengthen capacity but required additional capacity strengthening activities. 65. Financial management (FM). The overall performance of the Project's FM was regularly rated Moderately Unsatisfactory and the risk as Substantial during implementation. Some weaknesses highlighted during project implementation were not fully addressed by the closing date. These include: (i) undocumented advances to suppliers, Communes, POs; and (ii) missing reconciliation statements for the 500 joint accounts between the PIU and the POs due to lack of access to the bank statements with a total of US$8.4 million in such accounts. However, Interim Financial and audit reports were received on time. C. BANK PERFORMANCE 66. At appraisal, the Project design incorporated lessons and experiences from other projects within and outside Cameroon and looked to contextualize design to the country and sector through extensive stakeholder consultations. The Project design built on the SDSR-PNIA14 (2014-2020) operationalizing the Cameroon Growth and Employment Strategic Plan (GESP) 2009-2019, which ensured that the overall objectives were highly relevant, and that the technical, financial, environmental, and economic aspects of the design were sound. The implementation arrangements considered the implementation capacity and built on some of the existing mechanisms the Government had put in place prior to Project appraisal, including divisional focal points from decentralized MINEPIA services to work alongside technical service providers to provide outreach organizational development and technical advisory services to beneficiary communes, POs and livestock entrepreneurs. 67. However, the complex Project design along with a lack of readiness for implementation caused delays in many activities. It took some time for the Government to (i) train procurement staff, the project coordination team and have the tender board meet; (ii) install a computerized financial and accounting system and (iii) set up the monitoring and evaluation system. In addition, there were a few shortcomings including: (i) underestimating the procurement risks; and (ii) the effort and time needed for POs to mobilize funding from LFI’s was underestimated. 68. Results Framework and Monitoring plan showed gaps at design: The results framework at the design stage included unclearly defined indicators and lacked key indicators to track progress towards project objectives, as was reflected in the significant modifications made during the MTR. The monitoring 14 SDSR-PNIA is the rural sector development strategy with the national agriculture investment plan 16 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) plan at the time of preparation was extremely ambitious and had to be modified from the original plan which envisioned that officers would physically visit every POs and pastoral infrastructure location every month to collect data to a more participatory form of reporting from the POs, Councils, and LSPs. Quality of Supervision 69. The World Bank closely monitored the Project’s progress and provided regular support for implementation. Supervision missions were organized systematically at six-month intervals as per World Bank guidelines. The need to shift to virtual supervision missions during the COVID-19 pandemic presented some challenges initially but the World Bank team managed the transition effectively by facilitating capacity strengthening on the use of virtual meeting platforms, increasing the length of meetings, and increasing opportunities to meet virtually. When issues arose during project implementation (as highlighted in earlier sections), the task team ensured that corrections and revisions were made. 70. The supervision team worked to proactively identify and resolve critical fiduciary issues. Procurement reviews undertaken during implementation proposed a set of recommendations, which helped to address some of the procurement issues including, ensuring strict compliance with procurement procedures, performing procurement filing in accordance with the implementation manual, and updating the relevant documentation for all contracts in STEP. For example, following the MTR of the Project, which revealed a persistence of shortcomings and misunderstandings in procurement, the Bank team reviewed its assistance plan by introducing monthly meetings and organizing work sessions at the Project's request for addressing bottlenecks. The World Bank supervision put forward detailed action plans to address FM-related issues, such as delays in advance justification, inconsistencies in reporting, etc. that persisted through to Project closure. 71. When there were environmental and social challenges, the World Bank supervision and regular monitoring was fast in addressing them. The main challenges related to ensuring the GRM mechanism functioned effectively were ensuring that all incidents were reported and adequately reflected and preventing the exclusion of indigenous populations. An IPP was specifically developed to ensure that the Bakas would also benefit. The World Bank supervision continued to monitor and suggest improvements to the GRM and was accompanied by training and capacity building efforts. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 72. The overall World Bank performance is rated Satisfactory. The shortcomings in quality at entry were mostly addressed during implementation with the Project teams adapting design and implementation modality to reflect the changing context. Following the first restructuring, the World Bank’s close implementation support helped to identify and address implementation issues/bottlenecks as they emerged, and flexibly respond to the emerging needs put forward by the Government of Cameroon, including the extension of the project closing date to enable finalization of activities. The strong and proactive performance in supporting the implementation of the Project led to turning around the Project performance, with successful completion of planned activities, and disbursement of nearly the entirety of its funds. 17 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 73. The risk to the development outcome is assessed as Significant. At the country level, it is primarily driven by very low domestic fiscal resources allocated to the sector and continued reliance on development partners. At the micro level, maintaining the various infrastructures established under the pastoral resources management plans may become difficult if beneficiaries struggle to contribute financially. Similarly, sustaining the productive alliances established between off takers and POs may become a challenge if the two sides engage in outside selling/buying to take advantage of better prices. 74. At the macro-level, increasing frequency and intensity of weather shocks and poor capacity of the Government pose a risk to the Project outcomes. Cameroon is currently experiencing an abnormal recurrence of weather phenomena (such as violent winds, high temperatures, and heavy rainfall), which are expected to worsen. These shocks increase the risk of losing investments made in business plans and pastoral resource management plans. This coupled with low government capacity and tight fiscal space to put in place measures to mitigate the impact of these shocks can destroy community and business assets and undermine poverty and shared prosperity gains. 75. At the micro-level, the sustainability of project development outcome regarding productivity and commercialization of pastoral communities and POs lies in the sustainability of the sub-projects. At the pastoral community level this will primarily depend on the ability of the communities to maintain the infrastructure established and manage any conflicts in resource management. The Project tried to mitigate some of these risks by providing training and building capacity to management committees and establishing platforms for dialogues in case of conflicts. The risk related to the sub-projects financed with the POs surrounds their ability to maintain productivity and quality standards in the long term. This aspect is particularly important as some of the POs financed would be coming into production after project closing. By project closing, the agriculture ministry was exploring options for continued limited support to POs to ensure the implementation of all sales contracts signed with off takers. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 76. Flexibility when implementing complex and novel programs is essential. The PRODEL Project included a wide array of activities, and the inclusion of local financial institutions was novel for the specific context. POs struggled to meet the 10 percent requirement for LFI financing even after being selected for project financing. This was partly a function of not understanding the MG system by the POs and the LFIs. LFIs were reluctant to co-finance as they felt that the transaction cost of doing their own due diligence was very high. To address this at MTR, LFI’s were included from the start in the evaluation and selection committee of business proposals for MGs. This proved to be effective as it increased transparency for the LFIs and streamlined the process for POs to acquire co-financing from local banks who had already signed off on the proposal. 77. Participatory nature of the process of selection and design of community infrastructure investments was effective. Monitoring and evaluation shows that at the end of the project the pastoral plans were effective and had exceeded their targets on most counts. Interviews with beneficiaries highlighted the importance of empowering communities to choose what infrastructure should be 18 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) financed, as this ensured that investments being financed at the community level were responding to the needs of the community. 78. The trade-off between implementing more complex and novel designs with implementation capacity needs to be carefully considered. The MGs model of financing to local councils and POs played an important role in bridging the financing gaps and bringing various stakeholders together such as LFIs and off takers. Most of the targeted beneficiaries were smallholders or small-scale POs who operated in an informal manner with regards to administrative processes and local banks had very limited engagement with the livestock sector in the regions where the Project was implemented. MGs was a very new instrument for all and complex to understand initially. For the beneficiaries, it also required them to carryout procurement using the World Bank guidelines which was extremely challenging at the subproject level. A possible compromise which could have simplified design and made implementation easier, would have been to centralize procurement by PIU to reduce the administrative burden on the POs. . 19 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improve productivity of selected livestock production systems Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Productivity of targeted Percentage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 species by direct beneficiaries (cattle, sheep and goat, 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-Jul-2023 poultry, pig and bees) Small ruminants mortality Percentage 15.70 12.00 11.50 rate (%) Mortality rate in cattle Percentage 26.90 15.00 9.10 under 6 months in pastoral areas 20 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Broiler: Increase in the Percentage 0.00 25.00 76.00 quantity of live weight produced in 45 days per m2 per flock Egg production: increase in Percentage 0.00 10.00 0.00 the number of eggs produced per laying hen in 60 weeks Breeding pig: Increase in the Percentage 0.00 25.00 80.00 number of weanlings per sow per year Dairy cattle: Increase in the Percentage 0.00 150.00 527.00 number of liters of milk produced per cow per year Honey: Increase in the Percentage 0.00 20.00 20.00 quantity of honey produced per beehive per year Comments (achievements against targets): During mid-tern review, PDO sub-indicators were revised. On the sub-indicator on ruminants. A unique indicator mixing cattle and small ruminants countrywide could not provide insight into the differentiated effects of the PPR vaccination campaigns and pastoral areas improved management. Their effects would be better captured by the proposed two sub- 21 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) indicators. A sub-indicator was introduced “Mortality rate in cattle under 6 months in pastoral areas” to better capture MPPRs contribution to productivity gains, while the other sub-indicator was reformulated into the "Small ruminants mortality rate". 5 sub-indicators were reformulated to better capture evidence of their achievement in terms of productivity. Productivity of broilers, hens, and breeding pigs is measured on a yearly basis and highly depends on the number of flocks raised, which is influenced by external factors such as chicks and piglet availability. in the milk value chain, lactation period varies from one producer to the other depending on the degree of intensification. It is thus proposed to measure milk production per year. POs also joined the project at different moments in time and very different productivity levels. This justified the proposal to measure the expected productivity gains in the various value chains in increments (%) rather than in absolute numbers. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Farmers reached with Number 0.00 140.00 360.00 369.00 agricultural assets or services (Thousand) (of which female and youth) 06-Jan-2016 06-Jan-2016 18-Jun-2020 31-Jul-2023 Female-- reached with Percentage 0.00 35.00 23.20 agricultural assets or services Youth-- reached with Percentage 0.00 35.00 46.00 agricultural assets or services Comments (achievements against targets): 22 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) The target was revised upwards at mid term review. This was justified by the fact that actual realizations were already substantially higher than originally planned thanks to the positive response and high number of beneficiaries of the small ruminants' plague vaccination campaigns. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Farmers adopting improved Number 0.00 72.00 38.68 agricultural technology (of (Thousand) which female and youth) 01-Jun-2016 01-Jun-2016 31-Jul-2023 Female--adoption of Percentage 0.00 35.00 72.10 improved agriculture technology Youth-- adoption of Percentage 0.00 35.00 84.60 improved agriculture technology Comments (achievements against targets): Overall, 70.1% of the beneficiaries concerned by the adoption of improved techniques at the end of the project adopted these techniques. This represents a total of 38,688 beneficiaries who adopted the improved technologies promoted by PRODEL. Before receiving support, 52.9% of beneficiaries were already practicing 50% of the good practices promoted by PRODEL, i.e. an additional 20% gain in the long term. The achievement at completion is below the target considering the limited number of POs in production at closing. With more PO entering into production and being able to demonstrate sustained increased in productivity, it is anticipated that the level of adoption of improved technologies promotoed by the project would increase. 23 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Objective/Outcome: Improve commercilization of their products for the targeted beneficiaries Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Incremental sales in targeted Percentage 0.00 25.00 29.00 value chains (aggregated over all the targeted value chains) 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-Jul-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Improvement of Livestock Services Access and Delivery Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Post-vaccinal seroprevalence Percentage 36.00 45.00 70.00 74.00 of small ruminant plague [PPR] 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2020 31-May-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): At appraisal, it was planned that this indicator would experience a 5% per year increase from Year 3 to Year 5, leading to an original end-target of 45%. But the target of this indicator was revised upwards to be consistent with Cameroon’s commitment in terms of PPR eradication with the “bazooka”-type approach that the country has adopted, consisting in vaccinating a high proportion of the small ruminant population for three consecutive years. 24 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Quantity of improved genetic Number 0.00 2,845.00 3,442.00 material (animal and vegetal) acquired and/or produced by 27-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2020 31-May-2023 the livestock public stations and the project’s beneficiaries, and delivered to end-users Cattle genetic material Number 0.00 1,500.00 1,243.00 27-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2020 31-May-2023 Small ruminant genetic Number 0.00 2,900.00 0.00 0.00 material 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2020 30-Mar-2022 Pig genetic material Number 0.00 1,300.00 1,343.00 27-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2020 31-May-2023 Improved seeds Metric ton 0.00 45.00 856.00 Comments (achievements against targets): 25 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) During MTR, this indicator was reformulated and further broken down to ease data collection and monitoring of project impact. While it would be extremely difficult to predict how many farmers would benefit from improved genetic material acquired and/or produced thanks to the project, targets could be set as regards the numbers of improved genetic material (animal and vegetal) to be produced and/or acquired under the project, by the MINEPIA livestock stations and the beneficiaries the project will work with, and delivered to final beneficiaries. Bovine genetic material target not met due to the fact that the bovine insemination campaign implemented did not achieve the expected results. Only a limited number of inseminators trained in relation to needs. The performance of the inseminators trained by the project remained limited and discouraged farmers from resuming the exercise, thereby limiting farmers' adoption of AI. The indicator on small ruminants was dropped during MTR considering that too few small ruminants business plans had been identified. The qualitative leap linked to importing improved genetic material for small ruminants remained very marginal Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Time taken to disburse funds Weeks 20.00 8.00 20.00 requested by government for an eligible livestock crisis 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): The CERC has not been activated throughout the project lifetime to assess the government's performance in this aspect. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Client days of training Number 0.00 5,000.00 49,222.00 26 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) provided (number) 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 Client days of training Number 0.00 1,750.00 9,274.00 provided - Female (number) 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 Client days of training Number 0.00 1,750.00 25,497.00 provided - youth 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): The significant increase in the number of client days of training provided is explained by the fact that many new technologies and improved practices were introduced in the various value chains, targeting a variety of stakeholders, and the number of business plans financed also significantly increased from 200 to 500. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiary satisfaction rate Percentage 0.00 80.00 85.80 with quality of services provided by the project for 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 the livestock sector (of which female and youth) Youth Percentage 0.00 80.00 86.60 27 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Female Percentage 0.00 80.00 84.00 Comments (achievements against targets): The project introduced a major innovation in its design through the Matching grant model, and focused on capacity strengthening in its implementation approaches. These included exposing beneficiaries to regular trainings in good animal husbandry practices, environmental friendly practices such as tree planting, climate smart solutions such as biodigester for waste management, etc. The project also promoted local support, through local capacity builder for improved production techniques, procurement practices and access to quality veterinary services in rural an peri-urban areas. Component: Improvement of Pastoral Productivity, Access to Markets, and Resilience of Pastoral Communities Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of communal Number 0.00 30.00 30.00 management plans developed and implemented 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2017 31-May-2023 using a participatory approach Comments (achievements against targets): The target was achieved thanks to a competitive process from the outset which led to select interested communes. The participatory approach included the development of a harmonized methodology, involvement of the commune executive at every stage to facilitate ownership, and involvement of qualified local service providers with a good knowledge of the context. Communes also committed to mobilize their counterpart funds as part of the matching grant scheme. 28 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) The project has strengthened the resilience to climate shocks and conflict for beneficiary populations. This was achieved through introducing climate smart livestock practices for animal feeding (production of lick-stone, straw treatment, fodder production, etc.) for about 75,000 livestock producers including 16,500 women. Moreover, 7,287 hectares degraded pasture lands have benefited from the planting of improved species. About 6,900 vulnerable households were allocated more than 60,000 small ruminants as productive assets to engage in income generating activities, and about 4,500 women were equipped with tools to reduce their workload, including the construction of 100 biodigesters Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of hectares Hectare(Ha) 0.00 3,000.00 17,475.00 managed sustainably as part of the communal planning 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 process Comments (achievements against targets): The initial target was modest and conservative in anticipation of beneficiary potential resistance to new practices in an environment characterized by a high level of conflicts between farmers and grazers. The EOP exceedingly surpassed the target thanks to successful awareness-raising among breeders and mayors. Infrastructures put in place required sufficient space for grazing, thereby multiplying efforts to increase and improve grazing land area. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of mediation Number 0.00 30.00 27.00 platforms established and functional 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 29 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Market management Number 0.00 30.00 26.00 platforms benefiting from the participation of herders 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 organizations Comments (achievements against targets): The EOP was not met because some of the targeted councils did not have a defined cattle market. The Project did not have the mandate to create new markets, but worked on improving the inclusiveness of existing markets. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of herders in the Percentage 0.00 40.00 96.00 project area adopting at least one improved production 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 practice under component 2 Comments (achievements against targets): The achievement at EOP is exceeded because the project introduced above 10 improved production practices and some herders adopted more than one. 30 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of management Number 0.00 80.00 142.00 committees established and functional for pastoral 30-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2020 31-May-2023 infrastructures and grazing areas Comments (achievements against targets): This new intermediary indicator was introduced during MTR to reflect the social engineering and inclusiveness in the management of infrastructure at community level that was not adequately captured in the results framework. Component: Support to livestock value chains development Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Established Productive Number 0.00 30.00 25.00 Partnerships 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at 31 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Target Completion Number of business plans Number 0.00 200.00 507.00 financed by the project 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Share of producers in Percentage 0.00 80.00 99.30 productive partnerships who have adopted an improved 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 agricultural technology promoted by the project Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Project coordination, management, communication and monitoring Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Grievances registered related Percentage 0.00 75.00 73.50 to delivery of project benefits addressed. 27-Oct-2016 27-Oct-2016 31-May-2023 32 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Comments (achievements against targets): Majority of the 386 complaints received concerned the complexity of procedures and processing times. Some claims were made against local service providers for requesting undue additional expenses for the preparation of Business Plans. With the generalized inflation, an increase in the number of complaints was witnessed denouncing the negative impact and delays in contract execution with service providers, the quality of infrastructure, the slow completion of contracts and the late payment of invoices. 33 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1: Improving productivity of selected livestock production systems 1. Productivity of targeted species by direct beneficiaries (cattle, sheep/goat, poultry, pig and bees) Outcome Indicators 2. Farmers reached with agricultural assets or services (of which female and youth) 3. Farmers adopting improved agricultural technology (of which female and youth) 1. Post-vaccinal seroprevalence of small ruminant plague [PPR] 2. Quantity of improved genetic material (animal and vegetal) acquired and/or produced by the livestock public stations and the project’s beneficiaries, and delivered to end-users 3. Number of client days of training provided 4. Beneficiary satisfaction rate with quality of services provided by the project for the livestock sector (of which female and youth) Intermediate Results Indicators 5. Number of communal management plans developed and implemented using a participatory approach 6. Number of hectares managed sustainably as part of the communal planning process 7. Number of mediation platforms established and functional 8. Share of herders in the project area adopting at least one improved production practice under component 2 9. Number of management committees established and functional for pastoral infrastructures and grazing areas 1. 369,000 farmers reached with agricultural assets or services (versus a target of 360,000) 2. Post-vaccinal sero prevalence improved from 45 percent to 74 percent (against a target of 70 percent 3. 6,331 974 small ruminants vaccinated (against a 6,000,000 target) 4. 100 young veterinary doctors installed in peri-urban and rural areas. Key Outputs by Component 5. 6,088 improved animal genetic material and 46.1 ton of vegetal material delivered to end users (versus (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) a target of 6,900 and 45 tons respectively 6. 30 communal pastoral resources management plans development and implemented (versus a target of 30) 7. 47,389 client days of training provided (versus a target of 18,000) 8. 7,287 ha managed sustainably (versus a target of 3,000 ha) Objective/Outcome 2: Improving commercialization of livestock products by the targeted beneficiaries Outcome Indicators 1. Incremental sales in targeted value chains (aggregated over all the targeted value chains) (Percentage) Intermediate Results Indicators 1. Number of established Productive Partnerships 34 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) 2. Number of business plans financed by the project 3. Number of market management platforms benefiting from the participation of herders organizations 4. Share of producers in productive partnerships who have adopted an improved agricultural technology promoted by the project 1. 25 productive partnerships established and functional 2. 506 business plans financed (versus a target of 500) Key Outputs by Component 3. 29 percent increase in incremental sales in targeted value chains (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 4. 26 market management platforms established 5. 60 percent of producers in productive partnerships have adopted an improved agricultural technology Objective/Outcome 2 1. Time taken to disburse funds requested by government for an eligible Outcome Indicators livestock crisis (weeks) Intermediate Results Indicators 1. 385 Grievances registered related to delivery of project benefits addressed. (Percentage) Key Outputs by Component n/a (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 35 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Myriam Mireille Veronique Chaudron Task Team Leader(s) Mohamed El Hafedh Hendah Procurement Specialist(s) Francis Tasha Venayen Financial Management Specialist Dina Umali-Deininger Team Member Luis M. Schwarz Team Member Francois G. Le Gall Team Member Doina Petrescu Team Member Nora Kaoues Team Member Marie Roger Augustin Team Member Marie-Claudine Fundi Team Member Johanna van Tilburg Safeguards Advisor/ESSA Odilia Renata Hebga Team Member Kristyna Bishop Social Specialist Kouami Hounsinou Messan Team Member Omar Lyasse Team Member Jonas Mbwangue Team Member Emeran Serge M. Menang Evouna Social Specialist Manievel Sene Team Member Laurent Valiergue Team Member 36 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Jeanne d'Arc Edima Epse Ebode Ebah Team Member Paula Andrea Rossiasco Uscategui Team Member Stephane Forman Team Member Kolie Ousmane Maurice Megnan Team Member Peter Ngwa Taniform Team Member Abel Paul Basile Bove Team Member Adjalou Celestin Niamien Team Member Nneoma Veronica Nwogu Counsel Alphonsus Nji T Achomuma Team Member Pierre Jean Gerber Team Member Ghada Elabed Team Member Supervision/ICR Fidele Honorine Yobo A Koue Epse Nhiomog, Nabil M. Task Team Leader(s) Chaherli Koula Njoh Richard Theodore, Cheick Traore Procurement Specialist(s) Francis Tasha Venayen Financial Management Specialist Henie Dahlia Takodjou Meku Epse Nsinga Financial Management Specialist Zakari Chindap Chourupouo Team Member Claude Ghislaine Ebobisse Team Member Guyslain Kayembe Ngeleza Team Member Joshua Gill Team Member Hira Channa Team Member Barbara Metuge Emade Social Specialist Albert Francis Atangana Ze Environmental Specialist Odilia Renata Hebga Team Member Hawanty Page Team Member Gina Bowen Team Member 37 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) Rohan G. Selvaratnam Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY15 2.450 24,665.93 FY16 45.983 323,369.64 FY17 16.249 128,628.86 FY18 .752 1,839.17 FY19 .190 2,676.87 FY20 .270 504.58 Total 65.89 481,685.05 Supervision/ICR FY17 2.135 9,793.92 FY18 18.487 154,631.01 FY19 16.229 120,675.36 FY20 38.740 157,020.54 FY21 46.248 197,595.27 FY22 43.352 175,459.83 FY23 42.862 181,264.88 FY24 14.154 81,474.57 Total 222.21 1,077,915.38 38 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Improvement of Livestock 0 25.63 0 Services Access and Delivery Improvement of Pastoral Productivity, Access to 0 23.98 0 Markets, and Resilience of Pastoral Communities Support to livestock value 0 65.67 0 chains development Project coordination, management, 0 18.87 0 communication and monitoring Total 0.00 134.15 0.00 39 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. An economic Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) was undertaken at the project appraisal stage and again after project completion. The latter analysis is based on data availability, aligning with the approach developed at appraisal stage and acknowledged practices of economic analysis. This analysis accounts for the entirety of project costs - US$134 million. Consistent with appraisal, this analysis considers benefits of components 2 and 3, namely “Improvement of pastoral productivity, access to markets, and resilience of pastoral communities” and “Support to livestock value chains development”. The benefits for component 4 (project coordination and management) materialize in enhanced outputs and outcomes of other components and thereby factored in within the analysis. Efficiency at project appraisal 2. Key assumptions of the economic analysis at appraisal included 3,000 ha of improved pasture each yielding 2,010 FCFA, instead of 525 without project (component 2); 33 percent of 200 businesses to be supported, out of which a third would fail, along with various assumptions specific to different business types – pig, poultry, egg, bee, bovine, small ruminant, and cattle fattening and meat processing (component 3). 3. The appraisal analysis also entailed an assessment of the mitigation benefits, i.e., carbon sequestration. These were computed using the EX-ACT model coupled with GLEAN module15. The project was estimated to save nearly 243 million ton-equivalent of CO2, essentially stemming from improved livestock management practices, which includes improving the productivity and resilience of pastoral production systems. The mitigation benefits were however not monetized. A discount rate of 5 percent was used and a project time horizon of 25 years. The analysis also factored in the phasing of disbursements and benefits alike as well as the conversion form financial to economic costs – shadow pricing. 4. The resulting economic metrics are the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the Net Present Value (NPV), i.e., the sum of the discounted net economic streams. With the above assumptions, the retrieved IRR is of 17.9percent and the NPV US$122.9 m, thus suggesting solid economic returns and a strong rationale for project implementation. The conclusion was further strengthened by a sensitivity analysis that assumed variations of either costs, benefits, or lagging of benefits. Efficiency at project completion A. Approach 5. An ideal CBA model has a simple design and does not overlook any key features of the phenomenon it aims to represent. It should also be robust, i.e., its outputs should be reasonably sensitive to the input variables. To achieve this and strike the right balance between output accuracy and input availability, two principles are guiding this analysis: (i) a conservative estimate of the benefits, and (ii) the use of probabilistic modelling. 15https://www.fao.org/in-action/epic/ex-act-tool/suite-of-tools/ex-act/en/ and https://www.fao.org/gleam/en/ 40 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) 6. Conservative assumptions enhance results robustness: the economic performance of the project is all the more valid when overly optimistic estimates of benefits are avoided. It also allows the model to remain tractable. The project entails a wide array of activities which all aim at improving pastoral productivity and livestock value chain development, which are the two streams of benefits considered and avoiding double counting16. 7. A probabilistic model is used to factor in uncertainties. Even if the data is more accurate at ICR than at appraisal stage, the project benefits are assessed over a couple of decades of time horizon, which still entails significant speculation – though this is somewhat compensated by the application of a discounting rate. Some uncertain variables have a large sway on the project performance, such as price of livestock or the gross margin of businesses financed under component 3. In this context, accounting for the quantitative dimension of uncertainties enhances the assessment robustness. 8. Uncertain inputs are represented by probability distributions, which is a quantitative account of uncertainty, instead of deterministic values. Probabilistic modelling consists of running thousands of iterations of a given (deterministic) model across all ranges of possible values of uncertain inputs, thus accounting for informational gaps. This yields as many model outputs as there are iterations. Model outputs are then ordered and binned to build their probability distribution and reflect their own uncertainty. This process is known as Monte Carlo simulation, and it allows for more refined risk analysis than deterministic models. 9. The overarching model and the parametrization of uncertain inputs were fitted according to a mix of data sources that were cross checked as relevant and to the possible extent. This includes primary data directly measured by the PRODEL team, including relevant subject matter experts and other such key informants as well as secondary data from trusted or authoritative sources in the field of rural development. B. Assumptions 10. For component 2, direct surveys have been performed by the PRODEL team on livestock owners in communes of the North (Mayo Oulo, Lagdo, May Hourna,Garoua 3, Guider, Rey Bouba) and Extreme North (Koza, Dziguilao, Tomkombéré, Yagua, Petté, Goulfey) to find out mortality rates after six months – 14.9 percent on average. Additional livestock imputable to the project are computed against a baseline rate of 26 percent of mortality rate (also after 6 months). The results are then scaled to the entire livestock population concerned by the project. Probability distribution for prices were fitted using PRODEL subject matter expert elicitation and other secondary data17. 11. For component 3, the economic benefit proxy is the total gross margin of the businesses selected by PRODEL18. A sampling of 39 businesses was used to fit a probability distribution for the gross margin and scaled to the entire cohort of the businesses supported. It is worth noting that the number of 16 There is a risk of overlapping benefits between component 1 and 2, as the additional number of livestock results from both livestock services improvement and enhanced pasture management. 17 Motta P, Handel IG, Rydevik G, Hamman SM, Ngwa VN, Tanya VN, Morgan KL, Bronsvoort BM de C and Porphyre T (2018) Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon. Front. Vet. Sci. 4:244. Tsapi, V.; Assene, M.-N.; Haasis, H.-D. The Complexity of the Meat Supply Chain in Cameroon: Multiplicity of Actors, Interactions and Challenges. Logistics 2022, 6, 86. 18 Given that the equity brought by the entrepreneurs is small compared to the added MG and loan, it is reasonable to assume that without the project, the baseline situation is the absence of such business. 41 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) businesses is larger than that anticipated at appraisal and that the failure rate is much smaller (negligible against a 33 percent baseline at appraisal). 12. Benefits are counted pro rata the disbursements that are drawn from the project data (ISR). Operation and maintenance costs reflect that additional assets also entail liabilities for the performance to be sustainable. Like the appraisal assessment, the financial costs are adjusted towards economic costs, which entails a reduction that reflects, among others, the cash transfers occurring through the provision of local labor and other transfers The discount rate and the economic time horizon are the same as those for the appraisal – respectively 5 percent and 25 years. C. Results 13. The model yields average economic metrics of 20.6 percent for IRR, 2.0 for benefit cost ratio and US$160 m for NPV, and a payback time (time for NPV to be positive) of 8 years. 14. This project performance as estimated in the ICR is thus very consistent though slightly higher than that estimated at appraisal, i.e., 17.9 percent of IRR and US$122.9 m of NPV. The difference is explained by the somewhat too conservative assumptions taken at appraisal concerning the likelihood of business failures. Conversely though the estimated mean value of profitability for businesses is above the observed results. There is no noticeable difference in the relative sources of benefits, i.e., the third component prevails by tallying 60 percent of the total benefits at both appraisal and ICR stages. 15. The ascending cumulative distribution of the IRR, computed with a simulation of 50,000 iterations of the model, is shown below. It can be interpreted as follows: only 7.2 percent of the tested scenarios yielded an IRR below 5 percent, 85 percent of the computed IRR were in the 5 percent to 40 percent range, and 7.8 percent of IRR are exceptionally high and above 40 percent. Figure 1: Cumulative Ascending Distribution of PRODEL’s Internal Rate of Return D. Discussion 16. These results show that the project displays a strong economic rationale, with limited probability of performance below the acceptable performance threshold of 5 percent (discount rate value) for the IRR (likewise negative NPV or benefit to cost ratio below the unity). This can be considered a satisfactory 42 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) performance by standard benchmarks especially given the many risks that livestock management entails in remote areas and the pivotal role it has to increase resilience to shocks – as a convenient way to stock one’s assets. The probabilistic analysis is thus found consistent with the deterministic sensitivity analysis yet entails specific advantages in terms of robustness, as it allows several inputs to vary simultaneously and even be correlated, which seems highly plausible19. 17. Despite some inevitable variations between the appraisal stage and project implementation, this analysis overall yields results consistent with that of the appraisal stage, though both performance and robustness are found to be higher than expected. Put differently, the project implementation increases the confidence on the economic soundness of the project. 18. Business profitability is the variables with the most sway on the mean value and variance of the IRR. This is an expected result given the volatile environment, whether on production or prices, both locally and regionally, involving a complex interplay between variables at different scales and a strong exogenous risk component. Livestock value is indeed affected by market information and connectivity, demand as well as labour elasticity. 19. On balance, the evaluation of the project efficiency can be considered satisfactory which is notable given the unprecedented and unexpected COVID-19 pandemic situation during project implementation, as well as efficiency difficulties that are typically expected in any project that entails a large number of small disbursements, associated with significant selection and monitoring processes of private entities. Further, it is worth assessing the project implementation in the light of the remote, complex, and fragile environments in which the project took place. 20. A thorough evaluation of CO2 equivalent emission was realized by the project using both EX-ACT and GLEAM modules20 for both the baseline situation (without project) and with project21. It finds that the total emissions reduced slightly (from 1,655,450 t to 1,643,859 t CO2e/year in the baseline and Project scenario respectively). The project efficiency though is noticeable given that the protein production and feed intake respectively increased by 14 percent and 3 percent. 19 A decrease in meat production and the resulting supply shortage may be associated with a price increase for example. 20 https://www.fao.org/in-action/epic/ex-act-tool/suite-of-tools/ex-act/en/ and https://www.fao.org/gleam/en/ 21 Özkan S., Mottet A., Nana A., Lesaffre JS, Impact of Livestock Development Project (PRODEL) on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Food Security in Cameroon, 2022. 43 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. This annex presents a summary from the Government’s Project completion Report, submitted to the World Bank on March 24th, 2023. Context 2. In a bid to improve the productivity of the targeted production systems in the poultry, pig, beef, dairy cattle, small ruminant and honey sectors, the marketing of their products for the selected beneficiaries and to provide an immediate and effective response in the event of a crisis or eligible emergency, the Government of Cameroon (GoC) and the International Development Association (IDA) concluded on June 7, 2017 the IDA credit agreement No. 5908-CM for the financing of the Livestock Development Project (PRODEL) amounting to US$100 million. 3. The Project also received a contractual commitment from the GoC in counterpart funds for an initial amount of US$8.25 million and contributions of small-scale producers, POs, financial intermediaries, and communes estimated at US$26.8 million at the start of the project. 4. The initial closing date of the Project (IDA credit) fixed was January 31, 2023. A four-month extension was granted on December 29, 2023, while the preparation of the current Project Completion Report (PCR) was already engaged. The new closing date of the Project was set at 31 May 2023. Main conclusions 5. The overall performance of PRODEL is judged “Satisfactory (S)” with a risk of sustainability of development results judged “significant”. 6. The development objective of PRODEL remained consistent with the state’s public development policies, particularly VISION 2035, implemented through the NDS30 for structural transformation of the economy pillar, and the SDSR/PNIA through its ‘rural sector’ component. The PDO is also aligned with World Bank policy. 7. From the point of view of the different beneficiaries, PRODEL was in line with their needs and local priorities in terms of investment in the livestock sector. Despite the cumbersome procedures observed, the willingness of POs and communes to complete the business plans (BPs) started and the investments planned within the framework of the PGRPs was reaffirmed. Thus, the performance of the Project in terms of the relevance of the PDO was judged globally "satisfactory (S)". 8. Regarding effectiveness, the achievement of the ODP indicators (effectiveness) was rated as "satisfactory (S)". PDO Indicators’ targets were achieved or even largely exceeded. 9. The distribution of productive assets to vulnerable households in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions were appreciated by the various beneficiaries, even though the target (result) pursued by the project had not yet been reached at the time of the evaluation. 5,700 poor and conflict-affected households benefited from productive assets (small ruminants, etc.), against a target of 6,800 households. 10. As regards efficiency, it was judged "satisfactory (S)" from the point of view of the use of resources. In financial terms, PRODEL has, over the period of its implementation, used around 53.9 billion CFA francs out of a total budget of 58.1 billion, i.e., an execution rate of 92.9 percent. Financial execution projections 44 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) (disbursements and undisbursed commitments) stand at about CFAF 56.8 billion as of 31 May 2023, i.e., an execution rate of 97.8 percent. This means that by the time the IDA credit closes on 31/05/2023, about CFAF 1.3 billion may not be consumed. At the time of the evaluation, component 1 had a resource utilization rate of 80.2 percent, component 2 was 3.4 percent over the forecast, component 3 had used 92.8 percent of the allocated resources, while component 4 had used 96.4 percent. Overall, the activities recorded as of December 31, 2022, a physical progress of 99.9 percent and a financial execution of 92.9 percent of the funds allocated to the project. This situation gives an efficiency rate of 107.6 percent conclusive for a satisfactory efficiency from the point of view of the use of financial resources. 11. The performance of the World Bank (WB) is assessed as "Moderately Satisfactory" (MS). The WB played its role both in the preparation of the Project and in its implementation, as well as in the supervision missions it regularly organized jointly with the Government. However, it should be noted that delays observed in issuing non objection notices were sometimes long (several weeks) on the one hand, and the overall suspension of WB portfolio financing following the ineligible expenditure recorded by some other projects penalized implementation and had negative effects on the execution of Project activities and some sub-projects. 12. The performance of the Government of Cameroon is rated "Moderately Satisfactory" (MS) with regards to: (i) the irregular holding of the sessions of the Steering Committee (4 sessions out of the 12 expected at least) and of the Technical Monitoring Group (11 sessions out of the 24 expected at least), (ii) the poor availability of Counterpart Funds in accordance with the commitments initially made, (iii) etc. This is notwithstanding the cash flow tensions linked to events that were not initially foreseen (security crisis in the North-West and South-West regions, Corona Virus pandemic, Boko-haram, etc.). 13. As for the implementing agency (PRODEL), its performance is judged "Satisfactory (S)". This result is due to the fact that, despite the late start of PRODEL's activities, the increase in the workload of the national and regional coordination team of the project (the needs for accompaniment of the POs proved to be lower, leading to an additional burden of accompaniment at the level of the UCNP and the UCR), PRODEL succeeded in carrying out the planned activities technically and financially, all of which facilitated the attainment of the ODP. Despite the strong commitment of the PRODEL team, the low disbursement rates observed over the years (and made up for in the last two years of project implementation) have been a source of inefficiency in the achievement of certain intermediate results. 14. Regarding environmental safeguards, performance is considered "satisfactory" (S). During the project implementation period, the consideration of ESAs has progressively improved, in accordance with the guidelines prescribed in the safeguard documents and the conclusions of the various ESA monitoring missions by PRODEL and the World Bank supervision. Overall, beneficiaries of the project, mainly POs and communes, were made aware of the necessity and importance of considering SEAs in the implementation of their activities. However, the sustainability of the good practices inculcated by PRODEL is not guaranteed due to budgetary difficulties in considering ESA. 15. Indigenous peoples have benefited from the project's interventions, although difficulties have been recorded during the implementation of the PPA. 16. In the perspective of the significant risk to the sustainability of the development results achieved by PRODEL, it is important to think about conservatory measures aimed at consolidating PRODEL's achievements via a consensual financing mechanism which could be put in place in a consensual manner by the WB, MINEPIA and MINEPAT. This consolidation of achievements of this important project and the 45 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) guarantee of the sustainability of the investments involve the continuation of the accompaniment of the POs and breeders towards their maturation, as well as the finalization of their business plans and the PGRP. It also involves continuing to support the public (especially decentralized) and private services responsible for supporting POs. In this respect, a second phase of PRODEL could be envisaged 46 The World Bank Livestock Development Project (P154908) ANNEX 6. PROJECT MAPS Figure 2: Spatial distribution of EN infrastructures in target councils 61 Figure 3: Spatial distribution of investment costs and direct beneficiaries per project component NO 46 Figure 4: Spatial distribution of veterinary doctors installed by the NW AD project. OU 124 SW 20 Figure 5: Post vaccinal sero-prevalence after 45 CE the three vaccination campaigns 13LT ES against the small ruminants’ plague 61 53 SU 46 Figure 6: Distribution of financed sub- 48 projects per region. 47