The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA | Tunisia | Agriculture and Food Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2022 | Seq No: 3 | ARCHIVED on 30-Jan-2024 | ISR59203 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Economy, Office des Céréales Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 28-Jun-2022 Effectiveness Date: 24-Aug-2022 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 22-May-2024 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: Original Closing Date: 30-Jun-2025 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2025 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To ensure in the short-term the supply of (i) agricultural inputs for farmers to secure the next cropping season and for continued dairy production and (ii) wheat for uninterrupted access to bread for poor and vulnerable households; and to strengthen Tunisia’s resilience to food crises by laying the ground for reforms of the grain value chain. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Emergency support to farmers:(Cost $60.00 M) Emergency purchase of wheat for food security:(Cost $71.16 M) Improving resilience to food security shocks and project management:(Cost $10.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Project is executed by the Grain Board (Office des Céréales / OC) in accordance with project documents. Component 1 (Emergency support to farmers) and Component 2 (Emergency purchase of wheat for food security) relate to short-term objectives: they were entirely implemented in 2022 with the delivery of 61,444 metric tons of barley and the availability of 34,655 metric tons of certified cereal seeds for farmers under component 1, and the delivery of 160,099 metric tons of soft wheat under Component 2. Component 3 (Improving resilience to food security shocks) is tackling longer-term objectives and has started in May 2023 with the validation of a Roadmap for strategic studies to (i) strengthen the resilience of cereal farming to shocks and climate change, (ii) reform the cereal and dairy sector support system; and (iii) prepare the Tunisian Agriculture Strategic Framework. OC modernization remains a priority for action in line with work carried out with support from other Development Partners. Donor coordination is being led by the WB, FAO and the EU. 1/30/2024 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) An additional financing to PRUSA in the form of a USAID grant of US$11.16 M has been approved in August 22, 2023 for the supply of an additional quantity of approximately 25,000 metric tons of durum wheat. This AF is effective since January 03, 2024. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial High High Macroeconomic Substantial High High Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Moderate Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Substantial Substantial Substantial Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Ensure the availability of agricultural inputs for farmers IN01378999 ►Quantity of barley accessed by smallholder dairy producers through the Project (Metric ton, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 61,444.00 61,444.00 75,000.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 22-May-2023 22-May-2023 31-Dec-2022 The Project purchased 53,044 metric tons of barley out of the 75,000 metric tons planned as one barley cargo out of the three planned had to be partially financed due to the overrun on soft wheat purchase Comments: under Component 2 (explained by the margin of +/ -10% on quantities loaded). The Project co-financed the third barley shipment by US$3.68 million in December 2022. IN01379031 ►Areas planted with certified wheat seeds adapted to local water-stressed conditions, procured and delivered to small farmers through the Project (Percentage, Custom) 1/30/2024 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 17.00 31.00 31.00 25.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 22-May-2023 22-May-2023 31-Dec-2022 The objective was overachieved. Thanks to the project support, the certified seeds' campaign was very successful : it allowed to make the certified seeds available in the market in a timely manner unlike the Comments: previous seasons. Ensure the availability of affordable bread for vulnerable households IN01379033 ►Poor and vulnerable households reporting adequate access to affordable bread (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 78.80 78.80 95.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 22-May-2023 22-May-2023 31-Dec-2022 Soft wheat has been supplied through the project, processed into wheat floor, and distributed to bakeries throughout the country, including poor areas. The objective is underachieved as the target is deemed to be too high in the current Tunisian economic and social context, especially since the survey data is tainted by a form of general discontent among the population. Despite of this underachievement, the surveys showed that households surveyed were more Comments: satisfied with the availability of bread during the Project intervention period than once intervention was over: 31% of respondents are more satisfied with the availability of bread during the PRUSA intervention (between September and December 2022) than during the actual survey period (between March and April 2023). IN01379034 ►Female-headed vulnerable households reporting adequate access to affordable bread (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 81.10 81.10 95.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 22-May-2023 22-May-2023 31-Dec-2022 Soft wheat has been supplied through the project, processed into wheat floor, and distributed to bakeries throughout the country, including poor areas. The objective is underachieved as the target is deemed to be too high in the current Tunisian economic and social context, especially since the survey data is tainted by a form of general discontent among the population. Despite of this underachievement, the surveys showed that households surveyed were more Comments: satisfied with the availability of bread during the Project intervention period than once intervention was over: 31% of respondents are more satisfied with the availability of bread during the PRUSA intervention (between September and December 2022) than during the actual survey period (between March and April 2023). Improve Tunisia's resilience to food crises through reforms IN01379000 ►Regular publication of data on grain stocks, imports and production available on OC's website (Yes/No) (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1/30/2024 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2022 Data on grain imports and production is available at OC, but not real time data. It is noted that data on Tunisia grain stocks is currently considered as sensitive and confidential Comments: commercial information; therefore it is not published on OC's public website. IN01379032 ►Public consultation organized by the GoT on a proposed time-bound food subsidy reform implementation plan (Yes/No) (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2022 The revision of existing food subsidies and its possible timeline are is still under discussion. Comments: Overall Comments PDO The present political context in Tunisia makes it impossible to discuss a time-bound food subsidy reform implementation plan. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1 – Emergency support to farmers IN01379036 ►Quantity of certified wheat seeds adapted to local water-stressed conditions, procured and delivered to small farmers through the Project (Metric ton, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 34.65 34,650.00 40,000.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 22-May-2023 22-May-2023 31-Dec-2022 Out of a planned quantity of 40,000 metric tons of certified seeds, the Project was able to collect 34,900 metric tons and marketed 34,655 metric tons which corresponds to 86.6% of the objective. This underachievement is explained by: (i) a 49% higher price for the purchase of wheat seeds compared to Comments: the previous year and (ii) a larger sorting gap than previous year (of almost 20%) due to the impact of drought on grain quality. Despite of this underachievement, the Project notes a very clear improvement (+20%) in the quantity of certified seeds made available to farmers compared to the last three years. IN01379039 ►Smallholder farmers benefiting from certified climate-smart wheat seeds procured by the Project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50,000.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2022 Data collection is under finalization. Comments: Baseline data has been entered since actual data is not yet available. 1/30/2024 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) IN01379043 of which female farmers (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 IN01379045 ►Beneficiaries reporting adequate access to certified climate-smart wheat seeds (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 95.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2022 Data collection is under finalization. Comments: IN01379048 ►Smallholder dairy farmers benefiting from barley procured by the Project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 126,000.00 100,000.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 22-Nov-2023 31-Dec-2022 The objective has been overachieved as barley was distributed in a rationed way during Project intervention time (continuous and fit to needs barley distribution to herders rather than one-off Comments: distribution for stock constitution). It is estimated that, on average, herders went three times for barley supply over a three months period. IN01379049 of which female farmers (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 26.00 20.00 IN01379050 ►Beneficiaries reporting sufficient access to barley distributed through the Project (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 66.20 95.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 22-Jan-2024 31-Dec-2022 Underachievement of this target is explained by the general dis-satisfaction of farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, with regard to the overall economic and social performance of the country, that led to decreased barley supply all over the year and rationed distribution at selling points even during Project Comments: intervention which was short. Despite of target underachievement, farmers were more satisfied with barley availability during Project intervention than once intervention was over; satisfaction rate towards barley availability after Project intervention fell by 23 percent. Component 2 – Emergency purchase of wheat for food security 1/30/2024 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) IN01379035 ►Quantity of soft wheat procured and delivered through the Project to ensure continued access to affordable bread for poor and vulnerable households (Metric ton) (Metric ton, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 160,099.00 160,099.00 150,000.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Oct-2022 Six shipments of soft wheat have been procured by the Project, delivered in Tunisia ports and immediately dispatched for processing and bread making for poor and vulnerable households. Quantity is slightly higher than expected since grain procurement contracts have a +/- 10% flexibility on quantities aboard Comments: shipments. IN01379038 ►Beneficiaries’ feedback addressed through the GRM within the timeframe publicly communicated by the project (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2023 The Project uses the long time established GRM of the Grain Board (OC), which is operational. However, Comments: no complaints or grievances has been received by the Project so far. IN01379041 ►Percentage of bakeries registered in poor neighborhoods reporting continued supply of bread (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 70.00 70.00 95.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 19-Jun-2023 19-Jun-2023 31-Dec-2022 The objective is considered too high in the current Tunisian economic and social context, especially since the survey data is tainted by a form of general discontent among the population. The survey, however, showed that the satisfaction of bakers increased significantly during PRUSA intervention period (47.9% of Comments: bakers were satisfied with the availability of flour during Project intervention period compared to 45.5% before Project intervention); it then relapsed to 43.1% after Project intervention. IN01379044 ►Quantity of durum wheat procured and delivered through the Project to ensure continued access to traditional bread and other cereal products affordable for poor and vulnerable households (Metric ton, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,000.00 Date 31-May-2023 31-May-2023 31-May-2023 31-Dec-2023 Durum procurement by OC is underway. Comments: Component 3 – Improving resilience to food security shocks and project management IN01379037 ►Reform agenda oversight by the PM's Food Security Committee (Number, Custom) 1/30/2024 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 30-Jun-2025 The Food Security Committee was not established. Institutional arrangements are being revisited as part Comments: of the AF preparation. IN01379040 ►OC Modernization plan prepared (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2023 Discussion of a modernization plan for OC is underway. It will include digitalization prospects, import and procurement procedure revision, storage facility assessment, and ongoing assessment of the financial Comments: situation. IN01379042 ►Food subsidy reform implementation plan prepared (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2023 The preparation of a reform plan for food subsidies has become politically very sensitive and is not likely be be done during during Project life. However, reforms are taking place to increase the resilience of the Comments: grain value chain; one of them has already strongly decreased barley subsidy and "pastry flour" subsidy is progressively phased out for industrial and commercial use. IN01379046 ►New policy framework for domestic production proposed (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jun-2022 15-Oct-2022 15-Oct-2022 31-Dec-2023 A new policy framework to support domestic production has been prepared in draft, but is yet to be Comments: published. IN01379047 ►Stakeholder consultation on proposed reforms (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 10.00 Date 01-Jun-2022 22-May-2023 22-May-2023 31-Dec-2023 Comments: Two stakeholders' consultations have been undertaken where proposed reforms have been presented and discussed with development partners. These consultations highlighted some overlap between donors' 1/30/2024 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) interventions for the grain value chain and led to agreement on specific activities to be supported by each development partner. Overall Comments IR PIU is expected to finalize the last IRI for Component 1 at the end of January 2024. For Component 2, IRI on durum wheat will be informed as soon as durum procurement is completed early 2024. For Component 3: PDO indicator and several IRIs will be changed at the time of project restructuring when processing the second AF to PRUSA. Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P179010 IBRD-94320 Effective USD 130.00 130.00 0.00 130.00 0.00 100% P179010 TF-C2639 Effective USD 11.16 11.16 0.00 11.16 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P179010 IBRD-94320 Effective 28-Jun-2022 04-Jul-2022 24-Aug-2022 30-Jun-2025 30-Jun-2025 P179010 TF-C2639 Effective 03-Sep-2023 08-Sep-2023 03-Jan-2024 30-Jun-2025 30-Jun-2025 Cumulative Disbursements 1/30/2024 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project (P179010) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) P181225-PRUSA ,P181339-Additional Financing to Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project ,P181565-Second Additional Financing to Tunisia Emergency Food Security Response Project 1/30/2024 Page 9 of 9