Exercise on Identifying Key Assumptions to Test in Research This exercise is designed to help clarify where you think the problem is in the early childhood system, as a step towards designing an intervention that would address the problem. At the end of this exercise, you will have 1) an explanation of why your team thinks a problem exists; 2) a list of possible solutions to the problems; and 3) a beginning “theory of change� of how you could intervene to change the problem and to begin identifying measures that you’ll need to test your key assumptions. Step 1: Define the Problem The first step is to write your problem statement in clear and simple language. Ideally, the problem statement is targeted at the key impact you’d like to create or the goal you hope to achieve. For example, problem statements could be: Problem Statement What immediate positive impact What longer-term positive would result from solving this impact would result from problem? solving this problem? There isn’t enough access to pre- More children would go to PPE Children’s development and primary education learning enhanced Existing pre-primary education is Quality would be improved Children’s development and low quality Children who attend PPE would learning enhanced enter primary school better prepared Parents are not providing Home environments would have Children’s development and stimulating home environments more stimulating and enriching learning enhanced experiences Step 2: Ask “Why� the problem exists The next step is to ask “why� this problem exists. Starting with your problem statement, work backwards to define why the main problem, and each underlying problem, is happening. The more layers you can add to your “why� process, the more precise your definition of your assumptions will be, which in turn will help you build a clear and powerful study design. Please note that some of your explanations of why the problem is arising will appear more solid than others – that’s okay, as the goal of the exercise is to surface as many possible explanations of the problem as you can. In some situations, you may note that you don’t have the answer to “why� – please note these areas so you can potentially find other information to help you understand the problem more deeply. For example: This is the “why� line Low literacy rates prevent Not enough education parents from learning about parenting Parents don't know what activities to do with children Little knowledge on how to modify traditional parenting Stimulating activities are practices to make them more counter-cultural conducive to child development Home Envrionments are not sufficiently stimulating Children in the care of Parents are not the main potentially inadequate caregivers for children caregivers Parents are too busy to engage with children Parents don't prioritize Many children, with many engagement with children demands on parents' time Step 3: Identify possible solutions to the problems In the final step, you will generate possible solutions to the problems you’ve identified. Begin with the last row of problems you generated and work your way backwards. Using the example above, possible solutions are marked in yellow squares. Low literacy rates prevent Create easy-to-use guides Not enough education parents from learning about that are workable for parenting illiterate families Parents don't know what activities to do with children Create guides that build upon traditional practices Little knowledge on how to modify traditional parenting Stimulating activities are practices to make them counter-cultural more conducive to child development Engage parents in making Home Envrionments are not new guides sufficiently stimulating Map where chilldren are Children in the care of Parents are not the main spending time and build potentially inadequate caregivers for children intervention for those caregivers caregivers Parents are too busy to engage with children Observe families to determine where points of Parents don't prioritize Many children, with many intervention could be (i.e., engagement with children demands on parents' time engaging all family members) Step 4: Putting it all Together In the final step, you can transform your work into an early theory of change that can guide your intervention efforts and help you see where measurement will be needed to test your key assumptions. For example, let’s say that your team is especially confident that parenting guides are not culturally appropriate and so parents don’t use them. You’d then create your predictions of what you could do to change that: If we ... Families will ... Which will result in ... Creating the positive impact of ... • Design effective • Use the guides • Children will • Chldren's parenting guides • Have increased experience more development will that are easy to knowledge on stimulating be enhanced read and integrate how to stimulate interactions on a across multiple cultural children's regular basis domains of knowledge development development • Engage in more stimulating activities wtih children You would then begin the process of finding measures to correspond with each step along the way, so you can measure the key assumptions in your theory. You’d need, for example, measures of whether or not families use the guides; knowledge of stimulating activities among family members; and extent to which children and parents (or other caregivers) engage in stimulating activities. The impact would then be measured by assessing child development.