Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00006336 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA D0320, IDA D5520 and IDA D68380 ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 4.2 MILLION (US$6 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 16.1 MILLION (US$18 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF EURO 4.9 MILLION TO THE THE UNION OF COMOROS FOR THE COMOROS SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROJECT January 8, 2024 Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice Eastern And Southern Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {Nov 27, 2023}) Currency Unit = KMF SDR 0.75 = US$1 US$ 1.33= SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Zviripayi Idah Pswarayi Riddihough Regional Director: Daniel Dulitzky Practice Manager: Robert S. Chase Task Team Leader: Julia Rachel Ravelosoa ICR Main Contributor: Mohamed Abdel Jelil ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing ANACEP Agence Nationale de Conception et d’Exécution des Projets (National Agency for Design and Implementation of Projects) COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy DGSC Direction Générale de la Sécurité Civile (Directorate General for Civil Security) DoSSP Directorate of Solidarity and Social Protection DPF Development Policy Financing EIM Enquête Intégrale auprès des Ménages 2004 ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FADC Fonds d’Appui pour le Développement Communautaire FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FM Financial Management GoC Government of Comoros GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome IDA International Development Association IGA Income Generating Activity IPF Investment Project Financing ICR Implementation Completion Report ISR Implementation Status Reports KMF Comorian Francs M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDG Millennium Development Goals MIS Management and Information System MoH&S Ministry of Health, Solidarity, Social Protection and Gender Promotion NGO Nongovernmental organization OP Operational Procedure PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit PMT Proxy Means Test RSR Rapid Social Response SDR Special Drawing Rights SP Social protection SSNP Social Safety Net Project TOC Theory of Change UCT Unconditional Cash Transfer UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund IYCF Infant and Young Child feeding WB World Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 7 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................7 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ..............................................................10 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 13 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs .........................................................................................................13 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ......................................................................................14 C. EFFICIENCY ...........................................................................................................................17 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ....................................................................19 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)............................................................................19 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 21 A. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION..........................................................................21 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 22 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) .........................................................22 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE..................................................23 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................24 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................25 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 26 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 28 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 41 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 44 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 45 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 47 ANNEX 6. IMPACT EVALUATION METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION ........................... 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P150754 Comoros Social Safety Net Project Country Financing Instrument Comoros Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency MINISTRY OF HEALTH, SOLIDARITY, SOCIAL PROTECTION The Union of Comoros AND GENDER PROMOTION Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The Project Development Objective is to increase poor communities’ access to safety net and nutrition services. Revised PDO Increase poor communities’ access to safety net, nutrition, and community services. Page 1 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 6,000,000 5,998,252 5,882,862 IDA-D0320 18,000,000 17,988,098 18,510,159 IDA-D5520 6,000,000 5,997,554 5,365,588 IDA-68380 Total 30,000,000 29,983,904 29,758,609 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 30,000,000 29,983,904 29,758,610 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 19-Mar-2015 02-Jul-2015 23-Oct-2017 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2023 Page 2 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 29-Jan-2019 5.77 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Institutional Arrangements 04-Jun-2019 5.83 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 18-Dec-2019 5.83 Additional Financing Change in Implementing Agency Change in Project Development Objectives Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 26-Jun-2020 10.65 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 03-Mar-2021 20.65 Additional Financing Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 12-Dec-2022 29.75 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Highly Satisfactory Highly Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 13-Jul-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 14-Feb-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory .32 03 15-Nov-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.64 04 12-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 2.41 Moderately 05 30-Jun-2017 Moderately Satisfactory 2.57 Unsatisfactory Page 3 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) 06 21-Dec-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 3.22 07 25-Jun-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.75 08 11-Feb-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.77 09 19-Sep-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.80 10 02-Apr-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.83 11 07-Oct-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.68 12 19-Apr-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 20.65 13 13-Oct-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 24.31 14 14-Apr-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 27.79 15 24-Oct-2022 Satisfactory Satisfactory 29.75 16 02-May-2023 Satisfactory Satisfactory 29.77 17 28-Jun-2023 Satisfactory Satisfactory 29.77 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Health 17 Health 17 Social Protection 83 Social Protection 67 Public Administration - Social Protection 16 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 100 Jobs 100 Page 4 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Finance 2 Finance for Development 2 Disaster Risk Finance 2 Social Development and Protection 62 Social Protection 62 Social Safety Nets 62 Human Development and Gender 22 Nutrition and Food Security 22 Nutrition 11 Food Security 11 Urban and Rural Development 9 Rural Development 3 Land Administration and Management 3 Disaster Risk Management 6 Disaster Response and Recovery 2 Disaster Risk Reduction 2 Disaster Preparedness 2 Environment and Natural Resource Management 86 Climate change 80 Adaptation 80 Renewable Natural Resources Asset Management 6 Biodiversity 3 Landscape Management 3 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Hafez Ghanem Victoria Kwakwa Zviripayi Idah Pswarayi Country Director: Mark R. Lundell Riddihough Director: Michal J. Rutkowski Daniel Dulitzky Page 5 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Practice Manager: Iffath Anwar Sharif Robert S. Chase Task Team Leader(s): Andrea Vermehren Julia Rachel Ravelosoa ICR Contributing Author: Mohamed Abdel Jelil Page 6 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. At the time of appraisal in 2015, Comoros was facing gaps in social spending despite improvement in the overall macroeconomic outlook. The country had reversed years of economic instability but remained vulnerable to macroeconomic volatility primarily caused by weak fiscal policy and lack of fiscal space for investment in infrastructure and social sectors. Economic growth had consistently been exceeding two percent since 2009 and reached an eight-year high growth of 3.5 percent in 2013, benefiting from stronger agricultural exports (e.g., vanilla, Ylang Ylang), increased construction activities, increased foreign aid, some direct investment, and resilient remittances. The low level of domestic revenues along with a small tax base, the dependency on volatile foreign grants, the increasing expenditures on the wage bill and subsidies (e.g. energy), and the accumulated arrears had all reduced the fiscal space available for Comoros. This severely constrained much needed public spending on infrastructure and social sectors such as health, education and social safety nets. 2. Progress in Human Development was severely at risk due to the level of vulnerability and exposure to risk. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of universal primary education, reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters, and halting and beginning to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS were likely to be achieved by 2015. However, a large share of the population was exhibiting high levels of vulnerability due to exposure to shocks and gaps in critical service delivery. Access to health and education services was particularly poor in rural areas, resulting in even weaker MDG outcomes. The level of poverty was high with, 360,000 people, or 48 percent of the population, living on less than US$1.25 a day, and with most of the poor living in rural areas. Furthermore, natural disasters had shown a sharp increase over the years preceding the project appraisal. A 2005 report on natural disaster "hotspots" estimated that 54.2 percent of the population was living in areas at risk of hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and floods. 3. Malnutrition and early child development were lagging, and access to critical health services was very limited. The country was lagging behind the MDG goals of halving the proportion of the undernourished population, achieving gender parity in schooling, and reducing child mortality by two-thirds. About one third of the children under 5 years of age suffered from chronic malnutrition in 2008, negatively affecting their physical and cognitive development. More specifically, 15.3 percent of children were underweight (4.4 percent of which were severely underweight) and 30 percent were stunted (of which 14.5 percent were severely stunted). Malnutrition remained mostly concentrated in rural areas and among children with mothers who lacked education. According to the Demographic and Health Survey -Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey II, 16 percent of children had low birth weights in 2012. Contraception use (at 14 percent) and early breastfeeding (at 12 percent) were very low, with breastfeeding even having decreased in the previous five years. Critical services such as nutrition counseling and family planning were largely absent. 4. Comoros had and continues to have a high level of female-headed households due to separation and migration. Female single parent households represented 22 percent of the total in 2004 (Enquête Intégrale auprès des Ménages (EIM ) 2004), and there was a higher-than-average level of dependents in female-headed households. Although remittances benefited these households in particular, they created economic dependency and acted as a disincentive to Page 7 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) economic participation by women. This was compounded by the fact that women faced poor prospects in the labor market and exhibited high levels of job insecurity. Female labor force participation was comparatively low at 32 percent as opposed to approximately 43 percent for men. This rate increased to 50 and 60 percent respectively for women between 30 and 50 years of age as opposed to 80 percent to 89 percent for men of the same age (EIM 2004). There were also more unemployed women than men. Very few women were in wage-earning non-agricultural work (13.7 percent), but there were more self-employed women than men. Approximately two-thirds of women worked in the informal agricultural (rural) sector. 5. At the time of appraisal, social protection (SP) and nutrition programs had very limited coverage. A Social Protection Assessment carried out by the Bank identified significant shortcomings, with programs against malnutrition that were geographically limited and did not offer free-of-charge access to basic health care, as well as difficult access for poor women of childbearing age to support in the health sector. Furthermore, SP programs only covered a small part of the population, a particular challenge given the high poverty and vulnerability of large parts of the Comorian population: Social Insurance was only to the formal sector (public sector, military) and private health insurance only covered about 3 percent of the population. While the Government, supported by the World Bank and others (e.g. the French Development Agency and the Japanese Government), had implemented temporary cash-for-work programs to respond to multiple crises, a longer term safety net approach has not yet been developed. Moreover, the lack of coordination in the sector accompanied by shortcomings in the availability of data and program information was highlighted. The Government of Comoros (GoC) and multiple partners acknowledged the need for a more strategic and systematic approach to fight poverty and improve service delivery. 6. The government policies showed a strong commitment toward longer-term resilience and protection of the poor. Recent SP and nutrition policies were designed to feed into the country’s new Accelerated Growth and Development Strategy for 2015-2019. The Ministry of Health, Solidarity, Social Cohesion and Gender Promotion (MoH&S), with support from the World Bank, the Government of Japan and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), developed a National Nutrition and Food Policy that aimed at ensuring the right to food and adequate nutrition, to improve child survival, to allow optimal development of their physical and intellectual potential, and to promote the health and well-being of vulnerable groups and the entire population. The MoH&S, with support from the World Bank, also engaged in a participatory process to develop a SP policy in collaboration with the Ministry of Labor. This comprehensive SP policy called for, inter alia, better coordination and monitoring of SP initiatives, the development of a common beneficiary registry and effective safety net programs to protect the poorest and most vulnerable population, as well as better integration of SP and Disaster Risk Management initiatives. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 7. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) did not explicitly describe a Theory of Change (ToC). 1 For this Implementation Completion Report (ICR) the Project’s ToC is constructed ex-post and retrofitted from the Project’s Result Framework and its detailed description at closure. The ToC (Figure 1) reflects activities, outputs, intermediate outcomes, and long-term outcomes associated with the three project components at the project end. The project sought to (i) expand poor communities’ access to safety net programs through access to cash-for-work, cash transfers and support to Income Generating Activities (IGAs), (ii) improve nutrition for children under 5, and (iii) enhance access to basic services through the construction and rehabilitation of infrastructure. 2 The interventions built on each other as 1 As per World Bank guidelines, including the Theory of Change in Project Appraisal Documents was mandatory as of May 2018. 2 This reflects the revised PDO at end of the project. Page 8 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) cash-for-work activities were deployed for community infrastructure, and awareness campaigns and Accompanying Measures aimed to change behaviors. In addition, the operation provided support for program management and aimed to strengthen the institutional capacity for safety net management, coordination, monitoring and evaluation (M&E). Figure 1: Theory of Change of the Project Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 8. The original PDO was “to increase poor communities’ access to safety net and nutrition services” as described in the PAD dated January 29, 2015. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 9. The PDO Indicators (PDIs) included the following: Increase poor communities’ access to safety net programs. • Beneficiaries of safety nets programs (number, core indicator) • Number of beneficiary households participating in productive safety net activities (number) • Number of poor communities having access to both social safety net and nutrition services (number) Page 9 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Increase poor communities’ access to nutrition services. • Children under the age of 24 months benefiting from improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices (number, core indicator) Components 10. Component 1: Establishing a Productive and Disaster Responsive Safety Net (Original International Development Association (IDA) financing US$4 million equivalent; Total Cost, US$24.93 million). The aim of this component was to provide income support to poor households through two subcomponents: (a) Subcomponent 1.1: Establishing a Productive Safety Net (Original IDA financing US$3.2 million equivalent; Total Cost, US$3.43 million). The productive safety net program was designed to provide targeted poor families with income support in exchange for their participation in productive cash-for-work activities in the poorest villages of Comoros over a three-year period. The subcomponent had a gender sensitive approach to targeting, and aimed to support works in reforestation, water management, terracing, and so on. (b) Subcomponent 1.2: Ensuring an Early Recovery Response to Natural Disasters (Original IDA financing US$0.8 million equivalent; Total Cost, US$15 million). This subcomponent aimed to finance post-disaster recovery response, cash transfers and the rehabilitation and reconstruction of small village infrastructure damaged by natural disasters. 11. Component 2: Improving the Nutrition of Young Children and Mothers from Poor Communities (Original IDA financing US$1 million equivalent; Total Cost, US$1.17 million). This component was intended to complement the safety net activities and provide preventive nutrition services in the same villages benefitting from the productive safety net activities. It was designed to deliver a minimum package of nutrition-specific interventions for children under five years of age, with a focus on the ‘first thousand days’ window of opportunity (from conception to two years of age) and promoting better nutrition and reproductive health for mothers. 12. Component 3: Strengthening Safety Net Management, Coordination, and M&E (Original IDA financing US$1 million equivalent; Total Cost, US$3.9 million). Component 3 focused on the provision of the social safety net programs under Component 1 as well as building the institutional capacity for coordination, monitoring and evaluation of SP system in Comoros. By establishing a long-term social safety net delivery system, the component aimed to support the development of foundational tools such as a management information system (MIS). B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 13. Since approval, the project has undergone four Level Two restructurings based on requests by GoC and was complemented by two separate IDA-funded additional financings (AF). The first restructuring (in February 2019) was to reallocate some funds to reinforce the nutrition activities. The second restructuring (in June 2019) extended the project closing date to allow for an AF preparation to respond to the effects of cyclone Kenneth. This was followed by the first additional grant (AF1, P171633, Report No: PAD3536) approved on December 16th, 2019, in the amount of Page 10 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) US$18 million equivalent (SDR 13.1 million) to bolster the Social Safety Net Project (SSNP) in response to the Kenneth Cyclone. The third restructuring (in June 2020) added new activities related to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response and, therefore, reallocated funding between categories and updated the Results Framework. The subsequent AF (AF2, P174866, Report No: PAD4149) was approved on March 3rd, 2021, in the amount of US$6 million equivalent (EUR 4.9 million), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on lives and livelihoods. The fourth restructuring (in November 2022), reallocated funding between categories without change in the Results Framework. Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 14. The Project’s PDO was slightly modified in the AF1 to account for the response needs following Kenneth Cyclone, particularly the rehabilitation of community infrastructure. The revised PDO was “To increase poor communities’ access to the safety net, nutrition, and community services”. Revised PDO Indicators 15. The Results Framework of the project was adjusted to reflect the new scope and scale-up of project activities. This includes introducing indicators that reflect the increased coverage of the population affected by Cyclone Kenneth benefiting from the livelihood recovery grants and the emergency COVID-19 related cash transfers, as well as an overall increase in targets in selected indicators (see Annex 1). The new PDO indicators were: Increase poor communities’ access to safety net programs. 3 • Beneficiary households receiving recovery grants (Number) • Beneficiaries Households receiving unconditional cash transfer (Number) Increase poor communities’ access to nutrition services. • Pregnant/lactating women, adolescent girls and/or children under age five reached by basic nutrition services (number) 4 Increase poor communities’ access to community services. • Number of poor communities having access to both social safety net and nutrition services (number) 5 Revised Components 16. Component 1 was adjusted and significantly scaled up to support the response to multiple shocks. The first Additional financing focused on supporting the early recovery of selected, cyclone-affected households. This activity was implemented through the provision of recovery grants and access to Accompanying Measures to help households recover and create IGAs. These measures reflected an integrated support package including adult training sessions and livelihood 3 The indicator on productive safety nets beneficiaries was streamlined as a sub-indicator under the core indicator of number safety nets programs beneficiaries. 4 The previous PDO indicator became a sub-indicator of this expanded indicator. 5 This is not a new indicator but contributes to the expanded scope of the PDO. Specific Intermediate Results Indicators were added as well to capture infrastructure rehabilitation and building. This is further discussed in the M&E section. Page 11 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) support services to beneficiary poor households in villages affected by the cyclone. Furthermore, as part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Subcomponent 1.3: COVID-19 was introduced following a restructuring in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was designed to provide unconditional cash transfers (UCT) in order to increase poor communities’ access to safety net, nutrition, and community services. This adjustment also expanded the scope of the project to urban and peri-urban areas affected by the economic impact of the pandemic. 17. Component 3 was also scaled up over time to ensure proper management of the expanded activities under the project, and to strengthen the government systems. The component received a cumulative reallocation and AF of US$2.9 million. This further contributed to supporting the foundational elements of a safety net system, including (i) MIS with unique identification and key socioeconomic and demographic information on beneficiaries in the target areas; (ii) development of a targeting system and tools to identify poor and vulnerable affected households; (iii) grievance and redress systems supporting responsive management and social accountability; and (iv) efficient payment systems. These services were designed under the parent project and scaled up under the subsequent AFs. Other Changes 18. The implementing agency changed twice during the life of the project. First, after the creation of the National Agency for Design and Implementation of Projects (Agence Nationale de Conception et d’Exécution des Projets, ANACEP), the Fonds d’Appui pour le Développement Communautaire (FADC) was dissolved, and the project was moved accordingly in January 2019. Following AF1 the project was then moved to the MoH&S under the Directorate of Solidarity and Social Protection (DoSSP). This was based on the government’s request and to ensure quick implementation. This change was motivated by the excessive workload of ANACEP, which was already overseeing dozens of projects in Comoros and had not been able to mobilize the human resources necessary to coordinate the activities under the parent project. The arrangement was functional before project effectiveness, given that the entire project staff was moved to the DoSSP and continued to be responsible for the fiduciary and day-to-day management of the project. 19. Finally, the Financing Agreement Closing Date was extended twice through separate project restructurings. The two extensions were: (a) from June 30, 2019, until December 31, 2022; and (b) from December 31, 2022, until June 30, 2023. These extensions were introduced respectively to add activities in response to the Kenneth Cyclone and to allow for the preparation and rollout of the activities under the COVID-19 response. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 20. The shocks of the Kenneth Cyclone and the COVID-19 pandemic caused extensive damage to the lives and livelihoods of the population and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities. First, the cyclone hit 241 villages in 45 communes and affected 345,000 people or more than 40 percent of the population. Overlapping the poverty map and affected areas reveals that poor communities were most affected by the cyclone, even if all parts of the income distribution were hit. Cyclone Kenneth caused extensive damage to public infrastructures, destroying 38 percent of the Comoros’ classrooms (465 classrooms). A total of 147 water tanks, serving more than 130,000 people, were also damaged. The COVID-19 pandemic represented a compounding factor to a shock prone country and vulnerable communities. Comoros declared its first detected suspected case of COVID-19 on April 30, 2020. After the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, the GoC started to develop a health response strategy; established a crisis committee to coordinate multisectoral COVID-19 efforts and prepared a national multisectoral plan. Page 12 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) 21. The scaling and adjusting of the SSNP presented an efficient way to respond to shocks while connecting the emergency and humanitarian responses with a more resilience-oriented approach. The SSNP included a subcomponent designed to respond to natural disasters. By building on the existing experience and systems, the scale up of activities provided a way to support the economic and social recovery of households and communities whose livelihoods and service facilities have been damaged by the cyclone, in line with the objectives of the parent operation. Furthermore, the provision of emergency cash transfers was introduced to help support the most vulnerable and mitigate the erosion of human capital gains during the global pandemic. Interventions were expected to allow beneficiaries to meet pressing needs while also strengthening their income-generating activities and resilience in the longer term. In addition, the rehabilitation of essential community infrastructure such as schools, water tanks, and health facilities through productive cash for work activities was expected to allow communities to access again much-needed human and economic development services. II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Rating: High 22. At the time of appraisal, the project was closely aligned with the Comoros FY2014-17 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS, Report No. 82054-KM) and contributed to the World Bank’s global strategy of reducing absolute poverty and promoting shared prosperity. It deployed direct support to the most vulnerable population coupled with productive and nutrition activities, all supported by institutional strengthening of key actors. This aimed to promote resilience, equity and opportunities for households living in the poorest communities. The project supported the achievement of Pillar I of the CPS: Increased Public Sector Capacity - which seeks to strengthen service delivery and reduce poverty – by providing increased access of the poor population to productive safety net and nutrition services that promote short term income creation, medium term productive asset building, and improved nutrition for long term human development. The project was therefore aligned with the CPS, with the government’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper, as well as the National Nutrition and SP policies. 23. The Project’s PDO maintained relevance throughout implementation and was strengthened to support the government’s response to the consecutive shocks of the Kenneth cyclone and the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial project enabled the government to quickly provide disaster-affected families with short term employment opportunities to reconstruct their lives, and also rehabilitate affected basic infrastructure. By also providing direct support to vulnerable households and supporting the rehabilitation of community infrastructure, the project allowed to link short term crisis response to long term human capital accumulation and protection. 24. The closing project remained fully aligned with the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework (CPF) objectives for FY20–24 (Report No. 145699-KM). The interventions and foundational investments are aligned with the CPF Focus Area 1 which focuses on crisis response and building resilience and investment in human capital. Furthermore, the project contributed to the country’s effort to establish a functioning SP system. The government adopted its first National Social Protection Policy in 2016. It involves improving access to basic social services and establishing social safety nets to reach the most vulnerable. The GoC also issued a decree establishing a national registry to improve coordination Page 13 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) and enhance the efficiency of social programs (June 2020). These institutional and legal milestones benefited from inputs from the project and took in lessons learned from implementation. The project’s scope and rationale remained fully aligned with these policies. 25. Based on these factors, PDO Relevance is rated High. The operation was in line with both World Bank and GoC development priorities at the time of appraisal, which remained highly relevant throughout project implementation and over the course of two AFs. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Rating: High 26. For purposes of assessing the Project’s efficacy, the PDO is evaluated according to three sub-objectives, (i) Increase poor communities’ access to safety net programs (PDO 1); (ii) increase poor communities’ access to nutrition services (PDO 2); (iii) Increase poor communities’ access to community services (PDO 3). The project was extended and scaled over time given its success and became the main vehicle for shock response in the country. It disbursed all its funds, and exceeded all its PDI targets as well as achieved all its intermediate results indicators. 6 PDO 1: Increase poor communities’ access to safety net programs. (Rating: High) 27. The project increased poor communities’ access to safety net support and directly supported the emergency response to severe shocks. This was mainly through the introduction of resilience interventions: (i) cash for work activities (sub-component 1.2), (ii) socio-economic recovery grant for households affected by the Cyclone Kenneth (sub- component 1.2), and (iii) UCTs in response to COVID-19 (sub-component 1.3). Despite COVID-19 related disruptions, the project was able to achieve and exceed target results. The number of beneficiaries of safety net programs exceeded the end target of 100,000 individuals: at the closing date, 185,439 individuals were able to benefit from safety net programs, including 25,302 individuals from the initial productive cash for work program 7, 30,801 individuals from the resilience cash-for-work program 8 following the Kenneth Cyclone, and 129,336 individuals from the unconditional cash transfers in response to COVID-19. 9 The targets for PDO level indicators were established to reach a large share of the population while taking into account the limited experience with some of the interventions. For instance, income generating activities and Accompanying Measures were completely new to the Comoros context. Furthermore, cash transfers in urban areas in response to the COVID-19 pandemic represented challenges for many developing countries. However, despite these challenges, the project has increased the nationwide number of vulnerable people reached by at least one of the safety programs and covered the equivalent of 30 percent of the country’s population. 10 28. The project contributed to the resilience agenda and addressed inequities through recovery grants that supported IGAs. The project provided socio-economic recovery grants 11 to 10,290 households compared to the objective of 10,000 6 As shown in the Results Framework (Annex 1), one IRI was not activated as there were no disasters under the parent project. Under AF1, this was replaced by broader targets that focus on resilience and productive safety nets, under a more flexible design. 7 The productive cash-for-work consisted of 60 days a year, paid at $2.3 a day for 5 hours' work for 3-years interventions. 8 This is a one-time public works activity with 50 days per individual and a daily wage of $5.6 for 5 hours of work. 9 This is an UCT program for 3 payments of about US$75 per payment. 10 Please see Annex 5 which provides some further context on the reasons why some of the targets were exceeded significantly due in part to evolving demand and favorable exchange rates. 11 Recovery grant totaling $700 per household paid in three instalments of 10% (unconditional), 70% (conditional) and 20% (conditional). Page 14 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) households (Table 1). Indicators reflecting the contribution of the socio-economic recovery grant to women’s empowerment were also met and exceeded: more than 70 percent of the female recipients of the socio-economic recovery started their activities, exceeding the target (60 percent). These grants were particularly targeted to the poorest and most vulnerable, and supported those that were the most exposed to shocks, including the impact of natural disasters. Activities included livestock (41 percent) that are raised and often sold during the community celebration periods, agricultural investments which include buying seeds (29 percent) and small commerce (27 percent). The application of the Proxy Means Test (PMT) enhanced the existing targeting process and helped the project select the most vulnerable households. Table 1: PDO 1 Achievement – PDO Indicators Outcome Indicators Baseline Target Achieved Status Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) 0 100,000 185,439 Target Exceeded Beneficiary households receiving recovery grants 0 10,000 10,290 Target Exceeded (Number) Beneficiaries Households receiving unconditional 0 10,000 21,556 Target Exceeded cash transfer (Number) 29. The variety of transfers and accompanying measures have contributed to the population’s resilience. Given the shocks of cyclone Kenneth and the COVID-19 pandemic, households were at risk of being disproportionally affected by increases in food prices because food consumption takes up a larger share of their income. Baseline impact evaluation of the socio-economic recovery grant intervention reported that in 2020, the average annual per capita food consumption of beneficiary households was only 147,000 Comorian Franc (KMF), i.e., less than US$1 per capita per day and represents only 22 percent of the poverty line in 2020 (which was 55,493 KMF per capita per month). A beneficiaries’ assessment at the end of the project shows that after two years of operationalization, more than 87 percent of IGAs created by the beneficiaries were on good track without any particular problem. Less than 13 percent experienced risks in their development but solutions were provided by the project, such as technical assistance for cases of livestock diseases. Around 30 percent of beneficiary households were able to increase their number of meals per day and more than 26 percent of the beneficiaries were able to acquire at least one additional household equipment during the project. Furthermore, monitoring data have shown that, in addition to the 10,187 activities generated directly by the programs, more than 3,170 other new activities have been launched with the profits from the activities initially funded. Furthermore, impact evaluation results show that in more than 90.4 percent of beneficiary households, incomes have returned to or even exceeded pre-COVID levels. In addition, beneficiary households have returned to their pre-pandemic sources of income: 87.4 percent of households for wage income, 88.5 percent for income from non-agricultural businesses and 80.5 percent for income from agriculture. 30. The project supported the strengthening of the SP systems and community level service delivery. The Intermediate Results Indicators show strong outputs with all households directly benefiting from the safety net interventions from the project registered in the MIS, which exceeded the target set at 90 percent. This further contributes to the medium-term effort to establish and operationalize a nationwide social registry. Furthermore, at the community level, 294 mother leaders were elected and trained under the project. These community leaders have played an important role in raising awareness, facilitating targeting as well and helping raise community concerns. They have been leveraged to enable the delivery of other services, including SP interventions by other NGOs and development partners. Furthermore, the project enhanced the efficiency of payment and overall financial inclusion through the opening of some 11,000 new accounts with money microfinancing entities, as well as 14,700 mobile money accounts. Lastly, the systems built through the Page 15 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) project, benefitted the smooth rollout of the subsequent Shock Responsive and Resilient Social Safety Net Project (P179291, Report No: PAD5129), and are contributing to the overall preparedness of the country. PDO 2: Increase poor communities’ access to nutrition services. (Rating: High) 31. In terms of access to nutrition services, the project provided preventive services in targeted poor communities. All the objectives have been achieved early in the life cycle of the project and the situation has improved significantly. Indeed, through the initial funding, the number of pregnant/breastfeeding women, adolescent girls, and/or children under five covered by basic nutrition services is 33,340 people, more than four times higher than the target which was set at 9,600 people (Table 2). This was delivered through the provision of a comprehensive package of training and sensitization in the same villages that received income support and safety net programs under the parent project. 32. Community level engagement on nutrition and best practices was also complemented through targeting with income support, and results suggest a positive impact. In the case of cash-for-work beneficiary households, almost a third were able to increase the number of meals they ate per day. For UCT beneficiary households, despite the fact that nearly seven out of ten households reported food difficulties, in terms of the Survival Strategy Index, the vast majority of targeted households (85.9 percent) are classified in the low survival index category (between 1 and 19 out of 77). No beneficiary household fell into the severe Survival Strategy Index category. Furthermore, other significant changes in behavior were also observed among benefitting households. In particular, awareness-raising among beneficiary households seems to contribute to more interaction between parents and children within the household. Indeed, benefiting parents are much more concerned about their children's education and health than parents in households who did not attend or did not benefit from the project, with respectively 5 points and 3 points more in terms of probability. Table 2: PDO 2 Achievement – PDO Indicators Outcome Indicators Baseline Target Achieved Status Pregnant/lactating women, adolescent girls and/or 0 9,600 33,340 Target Exceeded children under age five reached by basic nutrition services (number) 33. The intervention reached a large number of children in their early years and aimed to strengthen service delivery at the community level. More than 14,581 children under 5 were enrolled in the program compared to a target of 9,200 children. In addition, 6,654 children under age two benefited from improved IYCF, more than double the target. Finally, 105 community agents were trained, exceeding the final target. These efforts aimed to provide foundational investments in the early days, that can have lasting effects on the beneficiaries while supporting service delivery overall. The trained community health workers under this project have been leveraged for the delivery of subsequent support for health and nutrition beyond the project. This initiative is a significant contribution to the nascent Comoros’s community health platform. Indeed, this represented the most significant effort in community health when it was introduced: benefiting 69 of the poorest villages/communities on three islands, which represented 22 percent of the communities in 2016. PDO 3: Increase poor communities’ access to community services. (Rating: High) 34. The project contributed to community resilience and access to services. The main indicator of a number of Page 16 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) communities covered has been surpassed: with 187 communities (compared to 100 communities targeted) reached by safety net programs and nutrition services (Table 3). This captures the multi-dimensional contributions of the project to service delivery through livelihood support, training, and awareness campaigns, as well as community led infrastructure investments. Indeed, the project supported community level recovery through cash-for-work interventions that prioritized infrastructure that is key for service delivery. This support was given through cash for work activities, which exceeded the end-target in terms of household and person-days’ work. At the end of the project, the number of person- days created was 891,204; compared to the final target of 600,000 person-days. The interventions focused on the poorest villages among the poorest in Comoros, based on the poverty targeted communities. Table 3. PDO 3 Achievement – PDO Indicators Outcome Indicators Baseline Target Achieved Status Number of poor communities that have access to 0 100 187 Target Exceeded safety net and nutrition services. 35. The infrastructure developed through this support is critical for human development and climate resilience. When it comes to outputs in terms of community activities and infrastructure, the objectives initially set have largely been achieved. Some 157 classrooms have been rehabilitated and equipped (i.e. 35 percent of the 447 classrooms affected by Kenneth), against a target of 80 classrooms. 12 In addition to these classrooms, 93 other infrastructures (water tanks, tracks or gutters) were rehabilitated, four times more than the number originally planned (20 infrastructures). The project also created 72 Wellness Spaces (“Espaces de Bien Etre”) through cash for work activities and promoted small and medium-sized enterprises in the execution of the works. These spaces have been used by this project and subsequent ones as training areas for the communities and are hosting daycare activities initiated by communities that benefited from adequate training. Overall, beneficiaries have a good perception of the activities provided by the project: over 82 percent of beneficiaries gave an above-average rating. 36. Impact evaluation results suggest that the infrastructure and behavioral training have contributed to positive change through community engagement. The support measures provided in the wellness spaces have been developed to achieve a multiplier effect on human development. These spaces focused on two main areas: (i) family planning and (ii) nutrition for children aged 6 to 23 months. A significant difference was observed between households in which one member had discussed family planning in the Wellness Spaces, and those in which the member had not: female beneficiaries were more likely to practice family planning when they had been made aware of the subject through community gatherings. There was a significant difference of 34 percentage points between the two groups, 100 percent versus 66 percent. 37. Based on the above assessment, the Overall Efficacy rating is High. All PDO indicators were met, adjusted to reflect increased funding, and in many cases, largely surpassed in providing access to safety net, nutrition, and community services to targeted beneficiaries successfully. These achievements were made despite disruptions due to the COVID- 19 pandemic and changes in institutional arrangements. C. EFFICIENCY Rating: Substantial 12Please see Annex 5 which provides some further context on the reasons why this target was exceeded due to gaps from other interventions that were planned in the targeted villages. Page 17 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) 38. Indicators based on cost-benefit analysis show the efficiency of the SSNP. The project disbursed all its funds under parent and subsequent additional grants. The project's operational cost decreased over time from a target of 20 percent in the parent project to less than 9 percent at closing. Project management costs including administrative cost and capacity building under Component 3 are reasonable given the context. This result reflects the overall good financial management of the project which compared favorably to other programs with similar interventions in the region. In Madagascar, which had a comparable duration of implementation, the overall operational cost was at 10.8 percent, while in Burundi these costs reached 14 percent. The decrease over time reflects the higher efficiency of the implementing team that gained experience over the years of the project’s life, as well as the lower cost of activities such as unconditional cash transfers that were introduced later in the life of the project. 39. The decentralized structures put in place and the enhanced targeting system, improved the efficiency of the management of project activities and helped minimize costs. Technical and administrative decisions were gradually taken at the regional directorate level while respecting all project implementation procedures. This mechanism made it possible to reduce the duration of file processing and the costs of managing activities. Furthermore, implementing a computer application for the automatic calculation of the vulnerability score just after the self-selection step considerably reduced the duration of the targeting. The different stages of targeting were carried out in less than 15 days for each village: self-registration, calculation of the score, output of provisional lists, recording and processing of complaints, community validation and output of final lists. This enhancement contributed to reducing the costs of project operations. 40. Positive returns to the transfers are reflected in budget and expenditure information shared by the implementing agency and data independently collected during evaluation. Regarding the total cost allocated to the programs implemented by the project (socio-economic recovery grant, cash-for-work and UCT in response to COVID-19), 65 percent were directly transferred to the vulnerable households. The transfer per household was US$506 on average which represented 13 percent of the total annual consumption of households. This contributed to improving the living conditions of beneficiary households. For each US$1 given to households, US$0.78 was allocated to consumption. Return on investments analysis carried out at the end of the project for recovery grants activities shows a benefit to cost ratio of 2.3 and an estimated Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 11.3 percent, which compares favorably to the 8.2 percent IRR estimated at appraisal (See Annex 4). As the project reached a significant number of poor households with cash transfers, which represent one of the most cost-effective means for reducing financial hardship and vulnerability of households, the contribution to maintaining and enhancing the poorest’ standards of living was not negligible (See Annex 4). The ratio of poverty decreased from 67.7 percent in 2021 to 58.5 percent in 2023 in beneficiary households, while the vast majority of beneficiaries have been able to regain pre-covid income levels suggesting that this support allowed many to mitigate the temporary impact of the shock. 41. Furthermore, the project contributed to the overall efficiency and resilience of the SP system through enhanced targeting and the introduction of mobile money. The project has incorporated the use of PMT and vulnerability scoring, in complementarity with community validation to move to a more objective targeting of the poor. This contrasts with the earlier targeting approach that relied on community targeting and ad-hoc identification of potential recipients of support. Baseline and final surveys confirmed both the actual levels of vulnerability and poverty status of the beneficiaries. The project also introduced mobile money payments during the COVID-19 response, and all payments were delivered through this approach. This activity continues to be used in the subsequent Shock Responsive and Resilient Social Safety Net Project (P179291, Report No: PAD5129) and is being expanded. The operational tools improvement (establishment of the beneficiary registry, the PMT for targeting, the M&E system) will be critical in strengthening the efficiency of the SP sector. All required audits were established. The administrative and project management ratio targets were met. The grievance Page 18 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) mechanism was effective: all complaints were treated and addressed, and despite some delays the related report was available. The project completed the beneficiaries' feedback as planned. 42. Based on the above assessment, the Overall Efficiency rating is Substantial. The Project was implemented effectively and utilized funds for their intended purpose. The project made a reallocation of funds between categories seven months before the closing date which led to the budget being fully and effectively disbursed. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 43. The outcome is “Highly Satisfactory” based on High relevance, High efficacy, and Substantial efficiency. The project reached all its targets and supported the expansion of productive and shocks responsive safety, as well as contributed to service delivery at the community level. The design of the project, the flexibility and adaptability of the interventions as well as strong implementation support allowed to adjust the project to effectively support the government’s response to severe exogenous shocks. All funds have been disbursed and activities have been conducted in a timely manner, despite operational challenges introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Area Rating Overall rating Justification Relevance High The operation provided clear evidence of the alignment of the PDO to the current CPF/CPS objectives. High Highly The operation fully achieved its objectives (intended outcomes) PDO Efficacy Satisfactory without major shortcomings and in spite of challenges stemming from areas outside of the project’s control. Efficiency Substantial The operation compares favorably to other countries. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 44. The project addressed existing gender gaps by helping vulnerable women set up IGAs. For instance, there were gender differences in labor market participation rates, the nature of employment, as well as in education in the Union of Comoros, that the project aimed to reduce. There were relatively large disparities between men and women in education, with 47 percent of women in the uneducated labor force compared to only 36 percent of men. 13 Women also seemed to be over‐represented compared to men in self‐employment and informal trade activities, while the latter seemed to have better access to wage employment. The project provided a socio-economic recovery grant to 10,290 households, of which more than 77 percent of grant recipients were female, exceeding the target (60 percent). Furthermore, among the 7,810 female beneficiaries 7,506 were able to create income-generating activities. 45. Interventions also prioritized women to address vulnerabilities and enhance resilience. Women’s health and empowerment play an important role in breaking intergenerational cycles of poverty. The project contributed to addressing these challenges through (i) safety net activities that are gender oriented, with 67 percent of beneficiaries of all the programs being female (exceeding the target of 60 percent), and (ii) basic nutrition services for 33,340 pregnant/breastfeeding women, adolescent girls and/or children under five (above the 9,600 targets). 13 Comoros Household Budget Survey, 2013 Page 19 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) 46. Lastly the project contributed to women’s empowerment by fostering an environment for women’s leadership in benefitting communities. The traditional system tends to exclude women from decision‐making processes. The project provided trainings and Accompanying Measures to strengthen women’s leadership and self-affirmation, to enable them to adopt a longer-term perspective, to reinforce their identity and their participation in economic and non-economic activities as well as the in-decision process. This participation was strengthened by engaging women as mother leaders: 298 mother leaders were trained. The community leaders are elected and received special training to be the link between the community and the program by keeping beneficiaries informed about the program’s rules, responsibilities, procedures including payment schedules, complaint mechanisms, and by delivering Accompanying Measures through regular meetings. Institutional Strengthening 47. The project strengthened SP tools and helped transfer knowledge beyond the implementing agency. The strengthening of the MIS translated into all households directly benefiting from the safety net interventions being registered, which exceeded the target set at 90 percent. This work has been further accelerated under the ongoing Shock Responsive and Resilient Social Safety Net Project (P179291, Report No: PAD5129), which supported the full digitalization of the operational delivery mechanisms, thus enabling the real time monitoring of rollout and enhancing efficiency. Knowledge sharing and transfer from the project to other institutions has been key: for instance, the digitalization process will benefit broader programs under the MoH&S. Furthermore, the project provided input and coordination to the development of the Social Protection Strategy as well as the framework to establish a social registry. This has been underlined through the COVID-19 response Development Policy Financing (DPF, P174260, Report No: PGD216), with the introduction of the prior action to establish a social registry building on the existing beneficiary registry developed by the project. This was further complemented with a prior action through the Union of Comoros DPF series (P179763, Report No: PGD387) establishing the guidelines for key safety net programs in Comoros, based on the improvement of operational process and manuals elaborated under the project. 48. The project built the skills of staff to deploy Accompanying Measures that enabled behaviors for early child development, women’s empowerment, and economic inclusion. These Accompanying Measures and technical training complemented recovery grants and cash for work interventions and promoted resilience and long-term results. These measures are designed to encourage early childhood development, human capital development (education, health, nutrition), and women’s empowerment while technical training includes coaching, saving facilitation, business plans and supports productive inclusion and livelihoods. Such interventions were new to the Comoros context, and little knowledge existed of the process required to deploy them effectively. The capacity building is built on learning and exchanges from best practices and the implementation of similar programs in neighboring countries. 49. Training of community workers and women leaders contributed to the implementation of other programs including the Comprehensive Approach to Health System Strengthening project (P166013, Report No: PAD2910). Interventions through the project were accompanied by the training of community workers and leaders, with 105 nutrition community agents (exceeding the final target) and 298 mother leaders trained. These workers are now assets that are being deployed to support other interventions at the community level and have been leveraged to support health and awareness activities and can further support the effective implementation of human capital and disaster related interventions. Page 20 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 50. Not Applicable. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 51. The project successfully targeted the poor and most vulnerable, with a focus on geographic isolation and disparities. The initial profiling of selected beneficiaries showed that the typical household was poor and food insecure. There were considerable disparities between islands. Consumption in Ndzwani was three times lower than in Ngazidja and twice as low as in Mwali. Households in Ndzwani were also more affected by food insecurity and had fewer durable goods to cope with it. These factors were reflected in the design of the project through the selection of the poorest villages that also exhibited exposure to other compounding factors such as climate disasters. The project also benefitted vulnerable communities in the aftermath of the Kenneth Cyclone and during the COVID-19 pandemic. As indicated in the Efficacy section, results indicate that benefitting households have recovered consumption levels close to those seen pre- pandemic and that resilience grants beneficiaries have for the most part started their IGAs. This suggests that these interventions may have contributed to averting negative coping mechanisms such as selling important assets to cope with shocks in the short term. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 52. Not Applicable III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 53. Changes in institutional arrangements introduced some delays that impacted outcomes in the early stages of the project. The SSNP was initially implemented under the FADC and then the ANACEP whose objective is to prepare, coordinate, and monitor all investment and development projects in the country. Based on a request from the government the implementation of the project was later transferred to the DoSSP under the MoH&S. This change introduced some uncertainty and delays with NGOs implementing activities. The World Bank carried out an institutional assessment of the arrangements, with a focus on operational, fiduciary, and safeguard capacities, and found that they are adequate as staff from the SSNP was moved to the MoH&S to continue to work on the project. This impacted the progress of the project temporarily; however, all objectives were achieved in time. 54. The difference in capacity across the islands of the Union of Comoros was also a challenge for implementation, especially given that many interventions were new to the country. The project supported activities that were implemented for the first time in Comoros including the Productive Safety Nets and the Accompanying Measure packages. In some areas, local NGOs were not able to learn and adapt rapidly enough, and in some cases, capacity had to be brought in from other islands to fill gaps. Similarly, regarding the payment system, monthly payments were delayed due to some operational challenges on the payment agencies' side in some areas: this was primarily due to the differential in capacity of local agencies and lack of communication with the central agency. The project addressed this by working directly with local agencies to build capacity and increase understanding of the procedures. Furthermore, given the extreme isolation of some of the vulnerable communities, shortages in materials and very low transportation infrastructure in some areas Page 21 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) also introduced delays and challenges to the swift implementation of critical activities. 55. The global shock of COVID-19 created challenges in an already limited capacity context and expanded the scope of the project. The pandemic impacted the day-to-day implementation of the project as offices were closed, and teams had to move to virtual spaces to collaborate. Furthermore, the scope of the project was expanded to include cash transfer interventions in urban areas, which was completely new for the project and the population. Developing trust with beneficiaries, as well as procedures for targeting in urban and peri-urban areas was challenging given the time constraints, and lack of experience of the country with such interventions. Furthermore, given the transmission risks, community meetings in rural areas that were the foundation for the delivery of services were also affected and the number of participants had to be limited. 56. Despite these factors, the implementing team pulled together and delivered by showing a high level of adaptability. The team implementing team was very responsive to dealing with challenges around the COVID-19 response and the need to adapt in real-time to a new context. They also pulled through and managed the changes in institutional arrangements through sustained communication with key stakeholders including the implementing NGOs, the payment agencies, and the beneficiaries’ groups. Newcomers were also trained over time and informed about the challenges adequately. The high visibility of the project and continued support from key policymakers were also important in addressing administrative and coordination hurdles. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 57. The M&E system and framework were designed to reflect the needs and capacity to monitor components effectively. The project established a variety of instruments and processes under the implementing agency including an MIS and regular field visits by staff. Aside from tracking the main results indicators, data collection also focused on the perceived changes in the behavior of safety net beneficiaries, including changes in eating habits, children’s school enrolment and attendance, utilization of health and nutrition services, and changes in productive activities. The results of the nutrition component were monitored by the MoH&S through a monitoring system led by UNICEF to assist the government in implementing the nutrition activities in this project and beyond and to ensure harmonization and complementarity with other nutrition initiatives. 58. Despite challenges, the Results Framework included PDO and Intermediate Outcome Indicators that tracked progress toward high level objectives, as well as the outputs of the project. The M&E system and data tracked the number of beneficiaries, with a focus on gender disaggregation. It also included metrics to reflect the depth of nutrition and health services for children under five, as well as the effective rollout of livelihood activities. The Results Framework of the project was also adjusted to reflect the new scope and scale-up of project activities during AF1 and AF2. For instance, this included introducing indicators that reflect the increased coverage of the population affected by Cyclone Kenneth benefiting from the livelihood recovery grants, as well as updating some end targets. However, some capacity constraints impacted the quality of the upfront definition of some key indicators: for instance, given the lack of visibility on which infrastructure was damaged in isolated areas at the time of the design, the PDO level accounting for communities’ access to infrastructure was left covered under the overall indicator of access to Safety Net and Nutrition Page 22 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Programs. This limitation did not impact the overall tracking of the progress and achievement, and a strong accounting of this specific objective. 14 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Environmental and Social 59. The project was categorized as Category B under the World Bank’s Safeguard Policy. The Project triggered the Involuntary Resettlement Policy (OP/BP 4.12) and the Environmental Assessment Policy (OP/BP 4.01) because of activities to be carried out under Component 1. The project was expected to have positive social impacts on communities as a result of its interventions through its effect on vulnerable households. It is also expected to contribute to safeguarding both the natural and physical environment, thus preventing, or diminishing the effects of climate change on communities through reforestation and other climate-relevant activities. 60. The project developed an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) that includes an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) which ensured that activities were environmentally and socially sustainable. The ESMF also included procedures to identify potential direct negative social impacts of activities and proposed appropriate mitigating measures. During preparation, consultations with potential project beneficiaries, including those of different socio-cultural groups, produced a series of recommendations to ensure that their needs would be addressed appropriately, and to address issues such as potential adverse impacts and culturally appropriate services in project design. 61. The project adjusted its implementation to align with the public health safety guidelines following the COVID-19 outbreak. The project also tracked grievances and the time taken for their resolution through a Grievance Mechanism, the effectiveness of which it actively monitored under the M&E indicators. Furthermore, occupational Health and Safety procedures were also designed for the project, and no incidents were reported formally. Fiduciary 62. The SSNP ’s FM arrangements have been carried out adequately and improved over the years through capacity building. The Project followed the IDA’s budget, accounting, computerized accounting, internal control systems, funds transfer and audit procedures. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) made an effort to strengthen financial accountability and transparency at all levels and has shown sustained improvements including the submission of timely and quality Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) and timely and clean audit reports, facilitated using TomPro accounting software to produce more reliable financial reports. An accountant has been set up in each regional office, supported by an accountant and financial managers at the national level who provided supportive supervision in FM-related issues to the regional offices and capacity building training. 63. FM challenges. Fiduciary risk was identified as Moderate during preparation. However, one ineligible expense came to light under component 3 during the transition from ANACEP to the new implementing entity. The irregularities were corrected, and reimbursement was made. Furthermore, following AF1, the services of an auditing company were used as part of a national level effort to strengthen the monitoring of existing World Bank projects. 14 The actual number of schools and infrastructure rehabilitated was accounted for in an Intermediate Level Indicator. Page 23 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) 64. Procurement risk was identified as Moderate during preparation. A procurement capacity assessment carried out during preparation found that the PIU had experience in the implementation of earlier World Bank-financed projects. 65. Supervision assessments carried out during implementation found that procurement capacity had been strengthened over the years despite some challenges. Procurement staff at the national and regional levels were mostly in place. Periodic workshops on World Bank procurement procedures were being offered routinely to procurement staff and are important in view of the staff turnover at this level. The main challenges were related to staff turnover and issues with record keeping or submission of procurement plans due to challenges with connectivity. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 66. At the time of appraisal, the project aimed to upgrade the safety net interventions toward more productive activities and enhance human capital accumulation. Prior to appraisal, the Comoros Emergency Crisis Response Project (P120631, Report No: 54445 – KM) was ongoing and supported (i) community development through small infrastructure projects, and (ii) short term cash for work activities. The SSNP was designed to expand the scope of safety net activities and upgrade interventions toward a resilience approach that is community driven. The project was built on extensive dialogue and technical support, to design the national SP policy, to identify areas for capacity building and strengthening. Support included upfront knowledge exchanges and training to prepare for the implementation of Productive Safety Nets interventions and enhance targeting procedures. Project preparation also focused on coordination gaps between key stakeholders as identified in the lessons learned from the Comoros Emergency Crisis Response Project (P120631, Report No: 54445 - KM). Lastly, the implementation of the nutrition component was through UNICEF in line with the approach to position the program as the foundation for further public health interventions. 67. Overall, the implementation risk was rated as substantial given the countries’ overall political and economic situation, the limited technical and administrative capacity in the country, and some inherent risks to governance. While the initial implementing agencies (FADC and UNICEF) had a good track record, some key risks related to capacity, coordination, and accountability remained. In addition, the enhanced social safety net agenda and introduction of the nutrition program added to the project’s complexity in a low-capacity country. This was mitigated by significant capacity building resources and built on the instruments and technical capacity leveraged with support from the above-mentioned RSR Trust Fund. Quality of Supervision 68. The WB team conducted high-quality supervision throughout implementation. Implementation Support missions, organized every 6 months served as an essential venue to discuss, review, and document progress, implementation status and challenges. These missions included a multi-sectoral team given the scope of interventions and implementation in a low-capacity setting. In addition, ad-hoc meetings were organized as needed with the participation of the government throughout the life of the project to assess challenges in the context of evolving situations and shock responses. The Implementation Support missions were a World Bank requirement as defined by the PAD and played an important role in reporting. Aide Memoires and Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISR) were quite thorough and provided an in-depth reporting of the challenges faced, as well as the effort that went into addressing these challenges. These Page 24 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) measures were supplemented through other monitoring and oversight tools, notably quarterly financial reporting, and annual financial and commodity audits. Audits were carried out annually and generally found that program resources were being used as intended, and any identified issues were addressed. These efforts allowed the project team to be highly reactive to changes in the context and emerging challenges to the objectives through restructurings and AFs. 69. Throughout the life cycle of the project, knowledge sharing and training were important parts of the World Bank’s support. Given the introduction of new activities and systems in the context of the country, the project included a significant transfer of knowledge. The project organized exchange missions to Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Madagascar at different stages of the project’s life cycle. In Ethiopia, government counterparts learned from the extensive experience in rolling out Productive Safety Nets in rural areas. In Djibouti, the teams exchanged knowledge about the design of beneficiary and social registries, and the technical and social challenges related to the rollout. Finally, in Madagascar, the team learned about the delivery of comprehensive Accompanying Measure packages, as well as the leveraging of mother leaders and community workers as important agents for impact. Additionally, the PIU team took part in face-to-face exchanges through the network of French speaking Safety Nets Community of Practice in Senegal, Madagascar, and the Republic of Congo, as well as the South-South learning exchange on adaptive SP in Germany which was organized by the World bank. These exchanges were strengthened and continued throughout the project with virtual workshops, seminars, and World Bank’s staff support on Financial Management, Payment Systems, Digitalization, and the Grievance Mechanism. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 70. Based on these factors, the overall rating of Bank Performance is Highly Satisfactory. There are no notable shortcomings in quality at entry and quality of supervision. The Bank team was proactive in supporting the adjustment of the project and its components to an ever-evolving context, that saw multiple shocks. Furthermore, the Bank’s support channeled significant knowledge and capacity building that helped enable delivery in a low-capacity setting. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 71. One of the key risks to the PDO is the sustainability of the effect on beneficiaries and contribution to long term resilience. The project has taken concrete steps to reinforce the impact and enable continuity in the behaviors. For instance, exit strategies have been designed to emphasize both Accompanying Measures related to human development, as well as productive inclusion support through coaching and technical training. Exit packages have been rolled out in the project and further supported under the Shock Responsive and Resilient Social Safety Net Project (P179291, Report No: PAD5129). Furthermore, the SP committees that were established to support implementation and targeting have been registered with local authorities and continue to be linked to NGOs to encourage continued support and community level learning to adopt enabling behaviors. Lastly, the community workers and mother leaders trained, are also involved in other projects already and continue to deploy their skills. 72. Strengthening the sustainability of financing for SP in the country is important to ensure Human Capital accumulation and access to critical services. While significant advances have been made to establish tools and delivery systems through the project and the support of other partners, the financing of safety nets remains overwhelmingly supported through external support. Establishing a pathway to channel more local resources toward SP can help sustain the impact on vulnerable populations, and significantly contribute to the poverty reduction and resilience priorities of the country. This has been acknowledged through the continued dialogue of both the World Bank and the IMF, to Page 25 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) position SP financing as a key investment for human capital accumulation and to enable reforms. 73. Climate related vulnerability will continue to be very high for populations across the Union of Comoros. Climate disasters can impact both livelihoods and habitats and can have devastating effects that wipe out hard won gains. Progress can be further made to strengthen systems and interventions toward the overall objective of community and household resilience. For instance, while the project supported the development of a beneficiary registry and MIS, progress toward a national social registry still needs to be accelerated. Furthermore, the enhancement of technical training and climate smart public works can help build community resilience to climate related shocks. Connecting Safety Nets to interventions in other sectors can help amplify their impact. For instance, given the decrease in water resources and rainwater, the rehabilitation of relevant community infrastructures, through cash for work interventions, in rural areas will help enable people to cope with climate change and improve agricultural activity. These aspects have been taken into account in the subsequent Shock Responsive and Resilient Social Safety Net Project (P179291, Report No: PAD5129) and Climate Resilience Project (P180171, Report No: PAD5310). 74. Supporting SP Systems through the PIU and beyond. The success of the project has relied heavily on a very dynamic team in the PIU, that has absorbed an important level of external knowledge and built experience with a variety of Safety Nets interventions. To sustain the impact on country systems, the skills, tools, and knowledge transferred through the project need to go beyond the PIU and be embedded in the broader country systems. This effort has been supported throughout the life of the project through seminars and training, including participation in Community of Practice conferences. Furthermore, the digitalization effort that continues under the subsequent projects and which has made significant progress, will be a tool for institutions beyond the scope of the project. Overall, staff knowledge can be an important asset to the country through careful management of mobility and continuity in key roles. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 75. Lessons learned during the implementation of the SSNP have already informed subsequent projects and informed the design of interventions to respond to the Food Security shock and climate resilience investments. Lessons cover a wide array of issues learned through implementation, system assessments, and process evaluation conducted during the SSNP with support from the Rapid Social Response Trust Fund. The project adopted multisectoral approaches to address the development and resilience needs of vulnerable communities in a fragile context. 76. Disruptions or lack of access to coaching and technical training posed a risk to IGA implementation. Experience in setting up IGAs in Comoros showed that lack of skills in and/or technical knowledge about the chosen activities caused beneficiaries to give up on their IGA. Additionally, while common challenges such as climate hazards or health issues cannot be avoided, coaching should be made resilient to remain available throughout and support households to sustain their IGAs even in adverse circumstances. This was integrated into the design and preparation of the subsequent project in response to price shocks and helped build the resilience of the population. The project has significantly contributed to the capacity of local NGOs to deliver such training, and further leveraging of technology to reach the community can enhance the overall resilience of the system in a low-capacity setting. 77. There is scope to leverage Productive Social Safety Nets for Climate resilience and adaptation in the context of Comoros. The enhancement of technical training and climate smart public works is another improvement in program design to respond to the need to use safety net mechanisms for building community resilience to climate related shocks. Page 26 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) In addition, given the decrease in water resources and rainwater in some areas of the country, the rehabilitation of relevant community infrastructures, through cash for work interventions, can help to enable people to cope with climate change and improve agricultural activity. Furthermore, awareness and sensitization efforts through community engagement can help shape behavior and increase the adoption of climate sensitive habits. Integrated approaches that directly link support to rural communities with training and cash-for-work programs can amplify the impact as they support better use of natural resources and build more resilient infrastructure that can be managed and maintained by the community. For instance, anecdotal evidence from field visits has shown that communities have leveraged the setup of SP committees to take collective action on issues such as the provision of daycare in their villages. Such effort can be leveraged as well in the context of climate action. 78. Digitalization can enhance the efficiency of the delivery system but requires careful planning to fill existing skills gaps. Digitalization of the service delivery tools and mechanisms in all stages of the operation (targeting, complaints treatment, enrollment, payment, monitoring, and budget management) contributes to improving the project’s efficiency. Digitalization allows to shorten the responses to shocks and increase the impact of activities on beneficiary households. It also improves efficiency of monitoring of activities and management of the project: increasing productivity, reducing operational cost, and facilitating data analysis. This however requires careful planning and roll out as the experience from the project has shown that stakeholders need hands on support to build needed digital skills. The project has invested resources and time in training local community leaders and beneficiaries to use some of the digital tools that were deployed (mostly tablets and computers), and this effort can be built on to expand the digital literacy of the key stakeholders in rural and isolated communities. 79. Many of the implementation challenges were related to the differential in capacity and infrastructure across the islands. Providing and planning for support and capacity building that takes this into account, can help smooth the delivery of critical activities. This is also true for NGOs and private providers, as illustrated by the challenges faced by payment agencies in some of the rural areas. For instance, the project adapted over time to embed accounts and FM consultants in regional offices and worked directly with regional representatives of the payment agencies to enhance reporting and build capacity. Furthermore, NGO staff and experiences from performing agencies were moved across the islands to address capacity gaps. 80. Supporting new activities in low-capacity and geographically diverse settings like Comoros requires a strong commitment from key stakeholders at central and regional levels. Many of the interventions under the project were new in the Comoros context. This implies building the capacity of staff and managing the continuity and transmission of knowledge within the implementing agency. This also requires a strong understanding from the government of the potential implications of changes to activities and institutional arrangements, and effective communication to the regional authorities. Helping build understanding can be an important enabling factor for implementation. . Page 27 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Beneficiaries of Safety nets Programs Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries of Safety Nets Number 0.00 5,890.00 100,000.00 185,439.00 programs (number) 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 Beneficiaries of Safety Nets Number 0.00 2,945.00 2,000.00 2,507.00 programs - Female (number) 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 30-Jan-2019 20-Jun-2023 Beneficiaries of Safety Nets Number 0.00 4,000.00 4,217.00 programs - Cash-for-work, food-for-work and public 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 20-Jun-2023 works (number) Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator exceeded its target of 100,000 beneficiaries. Page 28 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) The original indicator was reduced during the first restructuring as Comoros had not suffered from disasters during the period 2015-2010. Thus, the indicator related to disaster was dropped and the number of female beneficiaries was also reduced. The indicator was again revised during the second additional financing to represent and include whole safety net beneficiaries (individuals). In addition to the productive safety net, implemented during the first stage, it was revised to include the beneficiary of cash for work as well the unconditional cash transfer. The household size was estimated at 6 individuals per households. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of poor communities Number 0.00 60.00 100.00 187.00 that have access to safety net and nutrition services. 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. This indicator exceeded its target of 100 communities. It was revised during the first AF to include the communities beneficiaries of the response to Kenneth cyclone : the number of beneficiary communities increased from 69 to 119 from the initial phase to the AF#1. The figure increased again to 187 once the "quartiers", or communities benefiting of the response to COVID-19 were taken into account. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Pregnant/lactating women, Number 0.00 9,200.00 9,600.00 33,340.00 adolescent girls and/or children under age five- 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 30-Jan-2019 20-Jun-2023 Page 29 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) reached by basic nutrition services (number) Children under the age of Number 0.00 2,800.00 6,654.00 24 months benefiting from improved infant and young 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 20-Jun-2023 child feeding (IYCF) practices (number) Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded : The objectives have been achieved and exceeded. This indicator was revised during the first restructuring : set at 9.600 instead of 9200. The number of pregnant/breastfeeding women, adolescent girls and/or children under five covered by basic nutrition services is 33,340 people, more than four times higher than the target which was set at 9,600 people. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiary households Number 0.00 10,000.00 10,290.00 receiving recovery grants (Number) 18-Dec-2019 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded: In the end, the budget allocated to the recovery grant activity allowed the project for the coverage of 10290 households instead of 10,000. Page 30 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries Households Number 0.00 10,000.00 21,556.00 receiving unconditional cash transfer 03-Mar-2021 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded: The budget allocated to the unconditional cash transfer in response to COVID-19 allowed the project to double the coverage of this program. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Establishing a Productive and Disaster Responsive Safety Net Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of rehabilitated, Number 0.00 15.00 20.00 93.00 reconstructed and constructed and functional 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 infrastructure sub-projects (except schools, clasrooms) Comments (achievements against targets): Page 31 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) This indicator was initially revised during the first additional financing to taking account the revision of rehabilitation/reconstruction of infrastructures damaged by the cyclone Kenneth. The target was revised from 15 to 100 infrastructures. The indicator was again revised during the second additional financing, split in two indicators, to make distinction between classrooms and other infrastructures :100 infrastructures became 80 classrooms and 20 other infrastructures. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of person/days of Number 0.00 810,000.00 600,000.00 891,204.00 employment created 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 29-Jan-2019 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator was revised during the first restructuring due to the absence of disaster. Since AF#1, this indicator included number of person/days created through cash-for-work which was recommended during the appraisal, to carry out cash- for-work activities for small community infrastructures. As the amount allocated were not defined in advance, no indicators were introduced. However, number of person/days created were recorded in this indicator. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of households Number 0.00 1,890.00 0.00 0.00 benefiting from post-disaster activities 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 28-Jan-2019 20-Jun-2023 Page 32 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Comments (achievements against targets): Revised / dropped after restructuring in 2019 due to absence of disaster during the period July 2015- January 2019. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries with recovery Number 0.00 8,000.00 10,200.00 plan for their recovery grant for income-generating 18-Dec-2019 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 activities Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries having Number 0.00 8,000.00 10,187.00 launched income-generating activities with their recovery 18-Dec-2019 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 grant Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 33 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Share of Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 60.00 73.00 having launched income- generating activities with 18-Dec-2019 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 their recovery grant (Percentage) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of rehabilitated Number 0.00 80.00 157.00 classrooms (Number) 03-Mar-2021 03-Feb-2021 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded : This indicator was introduced during AF#2 to make the distinction between classroom and other infrastructure. The total number of classrooms to be rehabilitated was not known until all the on-site assessments had been carried out. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of elected and Number 0.00 150.00 294.00 trained mother leader 03-Mar-2021 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 Page 34 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded : This indicator was introduced during the AF#2. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Percentage of female main Percentage 0.00 60.00 67.00 recipient social safety net program 03-Mar-2021 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Improving the Nutrition of Young Children and Mothers from Poor Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of children under Number 0.00 9,200.00 14,518.00 five years enrolled in the growth monitoring program 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 35 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Number of Community Number 0.00 100.00 105.00 Health Workers trained to provide IYCF services 01-Jul-2015 05-Feb-2015 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Strengthening Safety Net Management, Coordination, and Monitoring and Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Operational costs of the Percentage 20.00 20.00 18.00 8.61 project 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 18-Dec-2019 30-Nov-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded : The target was set to 18 percent after the AF#1. The project's operating costs have improved over time due to capacity building of the staff as well as improvement of service delivery. The project acquired experience as activities progressed and was able to limit the expansion of its staff numbers despite the expansion of activities. In parallel, the project improved progressively the targeting process and payment system by working with telecommunication companies and micro-finance institutions. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of Operational Number 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 Audits implemented 01-Jul-2015 01-Jul-2015 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 Page 36 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Percentage of beneficiary Percentage 0.00 90.00 100.00 households of the Productive Safety Net activities 01-Jul-2015 30-Jun-2019 20-Jun-2023 registered in the PIU's MIS Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded : All beneficiaries are registered on the management information system of the project. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries' feedback Number 0.00 3.00 3.00 related to the project (Citizen engagement Indicator) 18-Dec-2019 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 37 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Periodic report on the Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 Grievance Redress Mechanism (Citizen 18-Dec-2019 18-Dec-2019 20-Jun-2023 Engagement Indicator) Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Percentage of grievances Percentage 0.00 90.00 100.00 received and resolved within 45 days 03-Mar-2021 03-Mar-2021 20-Jun-2023 Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceed : This indicator was introduced during the AF#2. All complaints received by the project have been addressed, in most of the case within a few days from reception. Page 38 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1 To increase poor communities’ access to safety net 1. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) 2. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Cash-for-work, food-for-work and public Outcome Indicators works (number) 3. Beneficiaries Households receiving unconditional cash transfer 4. Beneficiary households receiving recovery grants (Number) 1. Number of person/days of employment created 2. Beneficiaries with recovery plan for their recovery grant for income-generating Intermediate Results Indicators activities Component 1 1. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) 2. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Cash-for-work, food-for-work and public works (number) Key Outputs by Component 3. Beneficiaries Households receiving unconditional cash transfer (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 4. Beneficiary households receiving recovery grants (Number) 2. Number of person/days of employment created 2. Beneficiaries with recovery plan for their recovery grant for income-generating activities Objective/Outcome 2 To increase poor communities’ access nutrition services 1. Pregnant/lactating women, adolescent girls and/or children under age five- reached by basic nutrition services (number) Outcome Indicators 2. Children under the age of 24 months benefiting from improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices (number, core indicator) Page 39 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) 1. Number of children under five years enrolled in the growth monitoring program Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Number of Community Health Workers trained to provide IYCF services Component 2: 1. Pregnant/lactating women, adolescent girls and/or children under age five- reached by basic nutrition services (number) Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 2. Children under the age of 24 months benefiting from improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices (number, core indicator) 3. Number of children under five years enrolled in the growth monitoring program 4. Number of Community Health Workers trained to provide IYCF services Objective/Outcome 3 To increase access to community services 1. Number of poor communities that have access to safety net and nutrition Outcome Indicators services. 1. Number of rehabilitated, reconstructed and constructed and functional infrastructure sub-projects (except schools, clasrooms) Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Number of rehabilitated classrooms (Number) 3. Number of elected and trained mother leader Component 1 1. Number of rehabilitated, reconstructed and constructed and functional Key Outputs by Component infrastructure sub-projects (except schools, clasrooms) (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 3) 2. Number of rehabilitated classrooms (Number) 3. Number of elected and trained mother leader Page 40 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Andrea Vermehren Task Team Leader(s) Sylvain Auguste Rambeloson Procurement Specialist(s) Joseph Byamugisha Financial Management Specialist Randa G. El-Rashidi Team Member Cheikh A. T. Sagna Social Specialist Siobhan McInerney-Lankford Counsel Aissatou Diallo Team Member Paul-Jean Feno Social Specialist Voahirana Hanitriniala Rajoela Team Member Khurshid Banu Noorwalla Team Member Rondromalala Raharimahefa Team Member Supervision/ICR Julia Rachel Ravelosoa, Mohamed Abdel Jelil Task Team Leader(s) Miarana Heriniana Aime Razaf, Sidy Diop, Blandine Marie Procurement Specialist(s) Wu Chebili Maharavo Harimandimby Ramarotahiantsoa Financial Management Specialist Lalao Vololomboahangy Cooper Razafinjatovo Social Specialist Irene Marie Holimalala Rabemanambola Social Specialist Vaniah Emode Andrianjaka Environmental Specialist Eva Lovaniaina Ramino Team Member Nantomiora Ravaka Ro Rakotoarison Randriamiharisoa Team Member Marouan Maalouf Counsel Page 41 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Adama Diop Team Member Hasinarijaona Laza Rakotondrasoa Environmental Specialist Nomenjanahary Rindra Aina Rakotoson Team Member Laura Ximena Bermeo Rojas Peer Reviewer Herintsoavololona Rakotondrabe Richardson Team Member Landiniaina Angelina Rakotonalina Team Member Hajalalaina Consuella Rabearivony Andrianjakanava Team Member Noro Hajalalaina Rasoloarimanana Andriamihajas Procurement Team Mariam Denise Brain Team Member Khurshid Banu Noorwalla Team Member Margaux Laurence Vinez Team Member Voahirana Hanitriniala Rajoela Team Member Andrianjaka Rado Razafimandimby Social Specialist Paul-Jean Feno Environmental Specialist Erik Winter Reed Environmental Specialist Siv Elin Tokle Team Member Aissatou Diallo Team Member Siobhan McInerney-Lankford Counsel Thomas Walker Peer Reviewer Andrea Vermehren Team Member Mohammad Ilyas Butt Procurement Team Lynette Doreen MacAdam Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Page 42 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY14 .600 20,297.90 FY15 22.905 226,655.15 FY16 .477 5,620.69 FY23 0 12,138.75 Total 23.98 264,712.49 Supervision/ICR FY15 2.952 6,675.92 FY16 19.159 44,212.79 FY17 15.242 68,496.36 FY18 18.773 72,935.87 FY19 12.500 68,076.08 FY20 13.100 61,607.74 FY21 15.794 75,303.36 FY22 14.857 172,552.12 FY23 12.445 195,157.45 FY24 3.804 29,578.82 Total 128.63 794,596.51 Page 43 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT IDA Financing for the SSNP (US$ million equivalent) Component Initial Revised Cost Revised Revised Cost Revised Revised Cost Cost After First Cost After After Cost After After Restructuring AF1 Restructurin AF 2 Restructuring g to COVID- 19 response March January December June March December 2015 2019 2019 2020 2021 2022 Component 1: Establishing a Productive and 4.00 3.43 18.43 18.43 24.93 24.47 Disaster Responsive Safety Net Subcomponent 1.1: Establishing a 3.20 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 Productive Safety Net Subcomponent 1.2: Ensuring an Early 0.80 0.00 15.00 9.00 15.00 15.00 Recovery Response to Natural Disasters Subcomponent 1.3: COVID-19 Response - - - 6.5 6.5 6.04 Component 2: Improving the Nutrition of Young 1.00 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 Children and Mothers from Poor Communities Component 3: Strengthening Safety Net 1.00 1.40 4.40 3.90 3.90 4.36 Management, Coordination, and Monitoring and Evaluation Total Project Cost 6.00 6.00 24.00 24.00 30.00 30.00 Page 44 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. Coverage of the poor population is high. The table below shows that 51 percent of all population living in poverty is covered by the SSNP. Among the 367,700 poor individuals in all Comoros, 187,300 individuals are beneficiaries of the SSNP. If we only consider the rural area where the project operates, the coverage rate of the poor population exceeds 66 percent. These results prove the effectiveness of the targeting methodology used within the framework of the SSNP. Despite of these high coverage, the requirement of Comoros in terms of SP is still large. Table 1. Coverage of SSNP Program All Comoros Cash- UCT- All SSNP IGA for- COVID19 work Number of Population 820,800 246,998 80,737 20,852 145,409 Poverty ratio (%) 44.8 75.8 86.1 76,5 70.0 Number of Poor population 367,700 187,253 69,514 15,952 101,786 Households size 7,8 6,2 6,7 Coverage rate of SSNP of poor population (%) 50.9 Notes: The number of the total population in the Comoros in 2021 is obtained using the Population Projection from RGPH2017 with an average annual growth rate of 2%. Beneficiaries SSNP include IGA, Cash-for-work and UCT- COVID19 beneficiaries. The poverty ratio is obtained by EHCVM2020 survey results. The proportion of the poor population in SSNP is obtained by the results of the baseline survey in 2021 for IGA and Cash-for-work and results evaluation in 2021 for UCT-COVID19. 2. Impact of the SSNP is linked to improvements in the standard of living of. Among of the SSNP beneficiaries’ households, the poverty ratio fell significantly at the end of the project. For IGA and Cash-for-work beneficiaries, the poverty rate decreases by almost 5 percentage points going from 84 percent in 2021 to 79 percent in 2023. In addition, the poverty gap (gap compared to the poverty line) fell from 49 percent in 2021 to less than 36 percent in 2023. For UCT-COVID19 beneficiaries, the poverty rate has decreased from 70.2 percent before cash-transfer to 55.7 percent after cash transfer. These results are corroborated by the positive developments of beneficiaries on their subjective perceptions. Table 2. Evolution of poverty ratio in IGA and Cash-for-work beneficiaries 2021 2023 poverty ratio Poverty gap poverty ratio Poverty gap Categories IGA and Cash-for-work beneficiaries 67.7 32.0 58.5 21.7 TMNC-COVID19 beneficiaries 70.2 32.8 55.7 13.6 Notes: For IGA and Cash-for-work beneficiaries, ratios obtained with baseline and endline impact évaluation survey for SSNP. The poverty ratio is based on total consumption per capita in baseline survey in 2021 and endline survey in 2023. For UCT-COVID19, ratios obtained with results evaluation survey for UCT-COVID19. The poverty ratio is based on estimated consumption according to food consumption declared in evaluation survey in 2021 and non- food consumption obtained in EHCVM2021. 3. The impact evaluation results show that the impact on annually earnings from activities of productive grants at household level is about 239US$ for beneficiary compared to control group during the 18 months implementation Page 45 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) period. The baseline survey shows that the average annually earnings from activities at households’ level is about 1,977US$ for beneficiaries. So, earnings from activities of beneficiaries grew annually at 8 percent during the 2 first years. It is assumed to grow at 5 percent for next period more than 2 years. As per the latest technical note on discount rates to be used for economic analysis of World Bank Projects, a discount rate of six percent is used. The inflation rate is assumed to be stabilized at 2 percent based the last country macroeconomic outlook (IMF report n°23/143). The estimated NPV of the Project is US$ 10,574 million at a discount rate of 6 percent, which makes the Project profitable. The benefit to cost ratio is 2.3 and the internal rate of return is estimated to be 11.3 percent. Table 3. Summary of Projected Costs and Benefits for a discount rate of 6 % Incremental income gains from participation 8% per year < 2 year, 5% per year > 2 year Baseline earnings in USD (2021) 1,977 NPV (USD) $10,574,363 Discount Rate 6% Total Costs (USD) 11,554,586 Total Gains over a lifetime of 20 years (USD) 38.976,101 Benefit to cost ratio 2,3 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 11,3% Sources: Baseline Survey (2021), Endline Survey (2023), IMF report Author’s calculation. Notes: UCT-COVID19 not included due to lack of data 4. In terms of livestock activities financed by the project, profitability is quite high. In particular, with regard to sheep and goat breeding, the funds granted made it possible to purchase more than 5,700 heads at start-up. In less than 2 years of operation, more than 5,700 births and more than 1,300 new purchases have been recorded, so an increase of 122% in terms of assets. With monetary estimations, an additional gain in terms of assets of more than 350 million KMF with an initial investment of 285 million KMF in 2021 15. For cattle breeding, profitability is less significant in the short term: more than 2,100 heads were obtained, resulting in more than 400 births and more than 700 additional new purchases. So, with an initial investment of 420 million KMF, we obtain an additional gain of 220 million KMF among all IGA beneficiaries. 5. The SSNP project makes an important contribution to the effectiveness and efficiency of the SP system in the Comoros in general. The SSNP database can be used as a starting point for the development of the social register in the Comoros. More than 36,000 households and 184,000 individuals who have benefited from the SSNP since the initial phase are ready to be included in the register of beneficiaries in the Comoros. This represents more than 22 percent of the Comorian population. If we consider the number of potentially vulnerable registered households, the database contains more than 55,000 households representing 39% of all households in the Comoros. 6. The innovations adopted within the framework of the project have contributed to the development of other sectors of activity and other programs. The payment of monetary transfers through mobile money (TELCO, HURY Money) and microcredit institutions (Sanduk) contributes to financial inclusion in the Comoros. The opening of accounts induces new skills among these institutions in terms widescale transfers and promotes savings and credit operations. The existence of these accounts also improves the effectiveness, efficiency and governance of the SP system in the Comoros. These accounts constitute an instrument for future interventions that benefit vulnerable households. 15 according to the beneficiaries, an average-sized goat costs around 50,000 Kmf Page 46 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Implementation and Completion Results Report Social Safety Net Project (P150754) Comments from the Government (translated) We acknowledge receipt of this completion report on the Social Safety Net Project. We are all delighted that the project has completed its planned activities on schedule and achieved the objectives assigned to it, and even in the case of some indicators, with significant overruns. We note that, overall, the evaluators are satisfied with the results achieved. As far as the Comorian Government is concerned, we are honored by this satisfaction and recommend that we provide some justifications for the various indicators that exceed the main objective. Indeed, these overruns should not worry anyone, as they result from the following facts: With regard to basic infrastructure (IDB) classrooms: 1. Partners and other projects had decided to rehabilitate certain classrooms in the same zones as the social safety net project. At the time of implementation, they withdrew for reasons of funding or strategy, and the PIU had to review its planning and take charge of these classrooms within a coherent social framework, enabling better construction. 2. The availability of funds linked to the favorable exchange course has made it possible to increase the number of beneficiaries of the sub-projects to be carried out. Regarding IDBs (excluding schools): we noted that the initial indicator was 20, whereas the project achieved 93. This can be explained by the fact that school construction took into consideration the rehabilitation of hygiene infrastructures (water tanks and toilets). With regard to the non-conditional cash transfer in response to COVID-19, increasing the number of beneficiaries from 10,000 to 21,556: 1. Firstly, the availability of funds linked to favorable exchange rates, 2. and secondly, the excessively high demand from communities prompted the Government to ask the project to review the strategy in order to increase the number of beneficiary households. The country's urban centers were initially considered as a locality, but when the project was implemented, they had to be divided into neighborhoods, and each neighborhood became a community. As a result, both the number of communities and the number of beneficiaries increased. Finally, we noted that the PIU, in addition to its activities, has collaborated with other projects funded by the Bank in the preparation and implementation of its projects. Page 47 of 48 The World Bank Comoros Social Safety Net Project (P150754) ANNEX 6. IMPACT EVALUATION METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION To measure and analyze the impact of the SSNP program, an impact evaluation with the combination of the Double Difference method with the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method was adopted. This can limit selection biases linked to differences in the compositions and behaviors of the treatment group and the comparison group which could vary during the evaluation period independently. Furthermore, because of the difficulties of carrying out a randomized experimental approach, certain initial conditions which differ between the two groups could also influence their respective tendencies in the absence of the program. For the construction of the comparison group, the experimental method of perfect randomization cannot be applied within the framework of the impact evaluation, due to the facts that the interventions are actions of an urgent nature and that the group of beneficiaries represents all vulnerable households in affected and poor communities (poverty rate greater than 70%). Thus, the beneficiary villages and households are not chosen randomly and access to the program is strongly linked to a small number of observable factors (relatively high vulnerability score). These characteristics have influences on their capacity for resilience and their daily behavior. Thus, to construct the comparison group, the methodology followed several criteria: choice by drawing of peer villages having the same degrees of vulnerability as the beneficiary villages in the same villages, then drawing of households from among households with similar degrees of vulnerabilities to those of beneficiary households. Two types of indicators are considered: impact indicators and monitoring-results indicators. They cover economic, social and behavioral aspects as well. The system aims to capture the direct effects (e.g. income) and indirect effects (e.g. product prices) of the program. The units of analysis are individuals (children, women, households), the market and the community. The indicators concern living conditions, poverty, consumption, education, health, employment, women's empowerment. The baseline survey was achieved just before the payment of the second tranche of the Recovery Grants (representing 70% of the allocated transfers). This is justified by the fact that the first tranche of the grants representing 10% of the total amount of transfers is intended only for administrative preparations (account opening, other administrative files) and that the large part of the activities linked to the SSNP (IGAs, Accompanying Measures) are effectively implemented after payment of the second tranche of the grants. The sample size is 1,600 households. A final evaluation is carried out for panel sample 3 months before the project closes, respecting the collection period of the reference survey to minimize the effects of seasonality on certain variables in the analysis. Thus, the collection of data for the endline survey took place in May 2023. Page 48 of 48